Is your return since Oct 07 high now positive?

FrugalInvestor · Post by **FrugalInvestor** » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:57 pm

My personal rate of return over the last 3 years according to Vanguard's website is -0.6% Is this accurate/comparable to XIRR?

I also have some CD's so my overall return by their measure would be a bit better, probably positive.

Rodc · Post by **Rodc** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:26 am

FrugalInvestor wrote:My personal rate of return over the last 3 years according to Vanguard's website is -0.6% Is this accurate/comparable to XIRR?

I also have some CD's so my overall return by their measure would be a bit better, probably positive.

I would bet you a nice lunch that they are using some formulation of an XIRR.

Rodc · Post by **Rodc** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:28 am

I reported when the thread started a return from the top of -2.4%.

As of this morning: -0.04% from 11/1/2007 which was the high point in my records (I record first of the month).

Time for a market correction.

jeffyscott · Post by **jeffyscott** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:50 am

This poll was posted in march and people are still responding in Oct.

Toons · Post by **Toons** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:53 am

I don't know,but my net worth is higher

Ed 2 · Post by **Ed 2** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:57 am

way,way higher.

MWCA · Post by **MWCA** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:57 am

Toons wrote:I don't know,but my net worth is higher

Same. Good thing we are good savers. Otherwise ...

tibbitts · Post by **tibbitts** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:58 am

Still down 7% on investments. Net worth is down a similar amount.

Paul

jeffyscott · Post by **jeffyscott** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 8:18 am

As one barometer applicable now, the Vanguard target retirement 2010 is right about 0% return for the last 3 years. That portfolio is about 50/50.

Tuxx · Post by **Tuxx** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 8:25 am

Heavy concentration of precious metals, foreign currencies (AUD/ZAR, CAD, NZD) and UDN.

My porfolio is up 176%. Networth is up 408%.

Ed 2 · Post by **Ed 2** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 8:26 am

jeffyscott wrote:As one barometer applicable now, the Vanguard target retirement 2010 is right about 0% return for the last 3 years. That portfolio is about 50/50.

than I'm better that those money managers in Vanguard.That's impressive!

Tuxx · Post by **Tuxx** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 8:33 am

jeffyscott wrote:This poll was posted in march and people are still responding in Oct.

Best September in 71 years would do that.

If it was the worst - there would be no interest in this poll.

The bullishness is in a froth. I purchased some inverse ETFs yesterday.

wander · Post by **wander** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 10:51 am

Last 12 quarters, still -6%.

gkaplan · Post by **gkaplan** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 2:45 pm

My three year return (from 09/30/2007 to 09/30/2010) is -0.48%.

tetractys · Post by **tetractys** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 4:00 pm

Does the @ 50/50 split in responses have to do with the variety of stock/bond allocations, and of portfolio sizes in relation to contributions and withdrawals? And now since this pole has been open for so long, time is an added factor.

I'm pretty sure I posted earlier when this thread was new. Things have changed since then of course. Now I have a positive XIRR of 0.76% since the peak; but still a negative real XIRR of @ -0.78%. I've made some substantial contributions since the 2007 peak, about half while the market was falling, and about half since the market bottomed out in 2009.

Best regards, Tet

tibbitts · Post by **tibbitts** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 4:51 pm

tetractys wrote:Does the @ 50/50 split in responses have to do with the variety of stock/bond allocations, and of portfolio sizes in relation to contributions and withdrawals? And now since this pole has been open for so long, time is an added factor.

I'm pretty sure I posted earlier when this thread was new. Things have changed since then of course. Now I have a positive XIRR of 0.76% since the peak; but still a negative real XIRR of @ -0.78%. I've made some substantial contributions since the 2007 peak, about half while the market was falling, and about half since the market bottomed out in 2009.

Best regards, Tet

In my case, obviously if I had been able to make significant contributions, or had any positive effect from rebalancing, my -7% might have been less negative.

Regarding rebalancing, some of us who had no significant new money to contribute exhausted our rebalancing capacity at higher levels than the market is now, so rebalancing was a net negative (at least to this point.)

Paul

livesoft · Post by **livesoft** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 5:11 pm

A plot of portfolio value versus month shows just a few months with a higher value than today. This means still a negative XIRR since we continued to make contributions in 2008, 2009, and 2010 although the total of those contributions is small compared to total portfolio. I don't think it will be very much longer before XIRR turns positive though.

I imagine that folks with small contributions to large portfolio ratios have similar results while folks with large contributions to small portfolio ratios have outstanding results. Also one has to be careful about context. For example, Vanguard reports for us a 1-, 3-, and 5-year "Personal rate of return" as 8.4%, 11.2%, and 10.5%. If only those numbers were true for our entire portfolio!

FrugalInvestor · Post by **FrugalInvestor** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:10 pm

livesoft wrote: For example, Vanguard reports for us a 1-, 3-, and 5-year "Personal rate of return" as 8.4%, 11.2%, and 10.5%. If only those numbers were true for our entire portfolio!

How does the Vanguard calculation differ from the XIRR?

livesoft · Post by **livesoft** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 7:31 pm

I think it differs in that Vanguard "forgets" about funds that you have completely sold and thus doesn't include them in the calculation.

For example, suppose you had VTSMX and exchanged all of it into VLCAX at a loss, then I don't think the Vanguard performance calculation knows anything about your VTSMX anymore and its loss.

Anyways, I just checked the Vanguard numbers against my numbers from MS Money. They are not the same unless I only include the current funds in MS Money and ignore positions that have been sold.

Also the Vanguard numbers do not include any of your holdings outside of Vanguard.

Rodc · Post by **Rodc** » Sat Oct 02, 2010 8:09 pm

livesoft wrote:I think it differs in that Vanguard "forgets" about funds that you have completely sold and thus doesn't include them in the calculation.

For example, suppose you had VTSMX and exchanged all of it into VLCAX at a loss, then I don't think the Vanguard performance calculation knows anything about your VTSMX anymore and its loss.

Anyways, I just checked the Vanguard numbers against my numbers from MS Money. They are not the same unless I only include the current funds in MS Money and ignore positions that have been sold.

Also the Vanguard numbers do not include any of your holdings outside of Vanguard.

That is pretty weak. I understand about holding outside of Vanguard, but they should include funds you no longer hold. If fact there is no need to pay any attention to what funds you hold. All you need is the starting balance, in and out flows, and ending balance.

InvestingMom · Post by **InvestingMom** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:39 pm

FrugalInvestor wrote:My personal rate of return over the last 3 years according to Vanguard's website is -0.6% Is this accurate/comparable to XIRR?

I also have some CD's so my overall return by their measure would be a bit better, probably positive.

Vanguards rate uses IRR not XIRR.

Vanguard defines the personal return as "Calculation method. Personal performance uses a formula called internal rate of return (IRR), which is a dollar-weighted return. IRR takes into account new money coming into your investment, as well as how long that money has been held. Don't confuse your personal rate of return with those posted for funds and indexes. The returns presented in these instances use a time-weighted calculation, which does not take cash flow into consideration. "

IRR is very close to XIRR. IRR is used when the income and payments are evenly spaced and the XIRR is used when you have income or payments that don't occur at regular intervals. I think to be more exact they (quicken and Vanguard) should use XIRR but from what I have read, it probably doesn't make a lot of difference. Presumably when you add or withdraw they round it up to the next month, but I have never read anything that confirms this.

I use Quicken and it calculates my portfolio IRR which agrees very closely to Vanguards. I know that Quicken includes investments that I have sold and includes additional cash flows, so I feel comfortable that Vanguard also calculates IRR correctly. Excel also has an IRR function.

FrugalInvestor · Post by **FrugalInvestor** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 3:04 pm

Thanks for the explanation InvestingMom.

It's good to know that Vanguard's calculation is probably good enough. Since 90% of my investments are there it makes it very simple for me to use their number and do a mental adjustment for the other 10% (CD's).

I do wonder about the funds that have been sold that livesoft mentions. I simplified to four funds a couple of years ago so I suppose if my sold funds are mucking up the numbers they will work their way out over time.

White Coat Investor · Post by **White Coat Investor** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 3:14 pm

I was pleased to see last night that my lifetime XIRR is now nearly 6%. My arithmetic mean for the last 7 years is 7.84%. You could almost retire someday off returns like that.

My early retirement plan depends on real returns of 6% unfortunately. So I'll probably be working 5 years longer....

Hopefully I still like my job then.

Dudette · Post by **Dudette** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:24 pm

Up 15 to 20% or so with market timing and being in the right markets during the moves up and down while still being diversified...about 10% behind my goal over that time period...

My returns this year are getting close to 20%.

Robin · Post by **Robin** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:29 pm

I've had a lot of highs since October of 2007 but I didn't write down any numbers at the time.

Scott S · Post by **Scott S** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:45 pm

I am positive (and was in March 2010 as well), due to contributing a lot of new money in the dips.

- Scott

sergeant · Post by **sergeant** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:57 pm

I will let you know in January when I get around to checking. I have only checked once a year the past few years. I used to do it weekly!

Fear and Loathing · Post by **Fear and Loathing** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:48 pm

I see the simple way of doing XIRR - and I am positive based on quick and dirty numbers). However how do I handle the internal transfers due to rebalancing? I have had no withdrawals - just transfers.

Or do I ignore it and take the initial + contributions and figure less than or grater than worth now?

InvestingMom · Post by **InvestingMom** » Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:19 am

kb0fhp wrote:I see the simple way of doing XIRR - and I am positive based on quick and dirty numbers). However how do I handle the internal transfers due to rebalancing? I have had no withdrawals - just transfers.

Or do I ignore it and take the initial + contributions and figure less than or grater than worth now?

If you are looking at your porfolio in total (and that is the best way to look at it) then, yes, you can ignore the transfers.

tractorguy · Post by **tractorguy** » Fri Oct 29, 2010 1:22 pm

I'm up about 4% due to luck on timing of an inheritance and because the company I work for (that gives me stock options) has done really well. It's within 6% of its 2007 peak so all of my options are in the black.

Regal 56 · Post by **Regal 56** » Sun Oct 31, 2010 3:36 pm

Don't know about since October 2007, but I started investing in April 2007. Return since then: +9.13%. I suppose that works out to an annualized return of 2.6%. Considering the last three years, it could be worse. My guess is that it would have been worse had I a larger stake before the great meltdown of 2008 through early 2009. The key is that I didn't panic and sell at the bottom in early 2009. Well, I did panic—I even contemplated learning to catch and cook possums over an open fire—but I didn't sell. Good thing. Possums are ugly little critters.

Call_Me_Op · Post by **Call_Me_Op** » Sun Oct 31, 2010 4:40 pm

Up 18% since 10/2007. Did a couple of non-Bogleheadish things that actually helped:

1.) Trimmed equities in mid September 2008. Then increased equities near market bottom.

2.) Bought a lot of TIPS later in 2008 at 3-4% real. Also picked-up some zeros which I have sold for a handsome profit.

Mitchell777 · Post by **Mitchell777** » Sun Oct 31, 2010 4:41 pm

Excluding new contributions, I am about even vs. Oct 2007

Bogleheads.org

Is your return since Oct 07 high now positive?

Since 10/07 high is your XIRR positive or negative?

Up 15 to 20%