Tuesday - Jack Bogle on the Nightly Business Report

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davidkw
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Tuesday - Jack Bogle on the Nightly Business Report

Post by davidkw » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:21 pm

Tuesday, 12/30 - Jack Bogle on the Nightly Business Report[/i]
David | | From Jack Brennan's "Straight Talk on Investing", page 23 "Living below your means is the ultimate financial strategy"

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LadyGeek
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Post by LadyGeek » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:56 pm

You beat my post by a few minutes. More info:

A quick search on the Nightly Business Report's schedule shows:

TUESDAY, December 29th

INTERVIEW: Vanguard Group Founder, John Bogle, talks about what's in the 10th Anniversary Edition of his book, Common Sense on Mutual Funds, in an interview with NBR Anchor Susie Gharib.

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I saw the announcement during Monday's show. They said John Bogle would discuss the outlook for 2010, but the web site says otherwise.

Broadcast in the Philly region at 7 PM, WHYY (channel 12).
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Post by chaz » Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:04 pm

Thanks to David and LadyGeek for the alert - always good to hear from Mr. Bogle.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

davidkw
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NBR

Post by davidkw » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:51 am

Even though the Nightly Business Report is sponsored by Franklin Templeton and Wells Fargo Advisors, and Bogleheads consider business shows and magazines as mostly noise, I find Nightly Business Report enjoyable to watch. The corresponents are not obnixious as the likes of Cramer.
David | | From Jack Brennan's "Straight Talk on Investing", page 23 "Living below your means is the ultimate financial strategy"

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Post by LadyGeek » Tue Dec 29, 2009 7:14 pm

They just showed the interview with Mr. Bogle.

Can you tell me what to expect in 2010?

-I don't forecast for one year. However, I can tell you what to expect in the next decade.

What can investors do to...(I forget the rest of the question)?

-Investors are their own worst enemy. Don't invest in what was good this year. Invest for the long term...

This is the 10 year anniversary of your book. Did you make any changes?

-Not really.
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Post by White Coat Investor » Tue Dec 29, 2009 7:45 pm

LadyGeek wrote: This is the 10 year anniversary of your book. Did you make any changes?

-Not really.
Classic Bogle.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Post by HueyLD » Wed Dec 30, 2009 7:58 am

It was great to see Jack on TV and as always, I appreciate his words of wisdom. Here are a few highlights from the interview:

I believe that stocks will return something like 7 to 9 percent during the coming decade, because the dividend yield is 2 percent today, around 2 percent, a little above that and earnings growth should be around six. So that would give us an 8 percent business return to underpin the market. So I think that's a reasonable expectation for stocks in the coming decade whether they get any of that this coming year, who knows.
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Don't put your money in last year's winners. Don't put your money in high cost funds. Remember in asset allocation that bonds are there to help you, although bond returns will be smaller than stock returns in the coming decade. They'll give you an element of stability. And just be careful and invest for the long term or put it another way, rely on the wisdom of long-term investing and forget the folly of short-term speculation because it's a loser's game.
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Well, we've learned in this last cycle that investors are their own worst enemy.
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..there's international funds which are doing well this year and investors are really taking money out of U.S. funds this year. So I would regard that as investors are their own worst enemy as a sign that maybe international is getting overdone and U.S. markets are a little bit under valued.

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Post by minesweep » Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:29 am


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Post by Adrian Nenu » Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:39 am

BOGLE: Very, very little. You could see the financial crisis coming. You could see that stocks were at unsustainable multiples at the beginning of the decade and you had to realize that the stock market creates no returns at all. It's business returns that count. So the stock market had greatly over done by having sharply rising price earnings multiples, sharply overdone what appeared to be wealth, but it turned out to be phantom wealth and we lost that phantom wealth during the past decade
- Stock valuations matter!

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.cm

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Post by bob90245 » Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:04 am

Adrian Nenu wrote:
BOGLE: Very, very little. You could see the financial crisis coming. You could see that stocks were at unsustainable multiples at the beginning of the decade and you had to realize that the stock market creates no returns at all. It's business returns that count. So the stock market had greatly over done by having sharply rising price earnings multiples, sharply overdone what appeared to be wealth, but it turned out to be phantom wealth and we lost that phantom wealth during the past decade
- Stock valuations matter!

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.cm
There's no risk in telling me what investors should have done a decade ago. Tell me what I should be doing now! With the market up 60% from March, is the stock market greatly over done? Is this phantom wealth that I am at risk of losing?
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.

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Post by Adrian Nenu » Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:20 am

So the stock market had greatly over done by having sharply rising price earnings multiples, sharply overdone what appeared to be wealth, but it turned out to be phantom wealth and we lost that phantom wealth during the past decade. That probably shouldn't be a plus or a minus in the coming decade. We're about where we should be I think.
Jack Bogle states that stock valuations are reasonable right now.
There's no risk in telling me what investors should have done a decade ago. Tell me what I should be doing now! With the market up 60% from March, is the stock market greatly over done? Is this phantom wealth that I am at risk of losing?
I agree with Jack Bogle, that's why I still have 100% of my money in stocks. There is no sign of the mad speculation of the late 90's dot-com era except perhaps in gold. Jack predicts that stocks will beat bonds over the next decade. Maybe so but I still plan to DCAdown to 50/50 once the economy gets back to normal.

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.com

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