2009 Boglehead Contest coming to a close

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Taylor Larimore
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2009 Boglehead Contest coming to a close

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Dec 09, 2009 9:32 pm

Hi Bogleheads:

With only 15 more stock trading days in 2009, we will soon announce our 2009 Boglehead Contest winner who will receive a choice of a Boglehead Book and a choice of a second book authored by Jack Bogle.

Contest Leaders:

1. Tonythered (Tony guessed 1096; the S&P Index is currently 1095.95)
2. bdavidson
3. YDNAL
4. chaz
5. Dogfather
6. gpo account 2
7. Plain Jane
8. dwhobbit

Our 2009 contest closes and the winner will be announced at year end. In event of a tie, the first to register will be declared winner.

Registration for our 2010 Boglehead Contest will be during the first 10 days in January and announced on this forum.

2009 Boglehead Contest
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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fishnskiguy
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Post by fishnskiguy » Wed Dec 09, 2009 9:58 pm

In spite of my prediction, let me assure everybody I will not root for a 56 point decline in the S&P. :lol:

Chris
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scuttlebuttrp
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Post by scuttlebuttrp » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:47 am

I'm pulling for a 48 point jump. :D
Royce.

tonythered
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Post by tonythered » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:40 am

Wow, I made that prediction as an overly optimistic guess in the beginning of the year! Hope it holds!

Wait... did I say guess? I meant to say that this was pure skill. Buy my fund!!

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Gary
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Post by Gary » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:21 am

I'm 271 out of 294.

I'm not last. That' good. So buy my newsletter.

--Gary

GlennC
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Post by GlennC » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:43 am

Perhaps the contest nature of this contest causes some people to make perverse predictions?

e.g. I made a prediction on the long tail to maximize my chances of winning. But even if there were no financial incentive for winning, some people will make a crazy prediction so that they seem really smart if they win (e.g. Philip Fischer of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits did this).

I was #2 last year... this year I am 290 out of 294.

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Rager1
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Post by Rager1 » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:49 am

GlennC wrote:...I was #2 last year... this year I am 290 out of 294.
Proof, once again, that past performance is not an indication of future performance :D

Ed

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Post by GlennC » Thu Dec 10, 2009 12:27 pm

In this case, if you bet on the long tail, you will end up on the bottom most of the years.

Or another way of looking at it...
You plot the probability distribution of what you think the S&P 500 prices will be. To do the best in the contest, you have to pick a price that will give you the biggest area on that plot (and for this you have to take into account other people's bets/predictions).

2- If there is a huge gap between 2 people's predictions, then you might want to slide into that gap.
e.g.
kb0fhp has 600
Cosmo has 500

Ideally, I would predict 599.99. But at the time, I wanted to hide what I was doing, so I put in 597.68 instead of 599.99.

-----------------
And on that note, isn't all this an example of a market inefficiency???
People can win a book here. Why aren't people optimizing their chances of winning?
;)

Of course, the financial reward for winning is pretty inconsequential.

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Predicting stock markets?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Dec 10, 2009 12:45 pm

Rager1 wrote:
GlennC wrote:...I was #2 last year... this year I am 290 out of 294.
Proof, once again, that past performance is not an indication of future performance :D

Ed
Hi Glenn and Ed:

I started the Boglehead Contests in 2001 to demonstrate the futility of stock-market forecasting. Thank you Glenn, for more convincing evidence.

It takes character and guts to admit failure.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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NateH
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Closing In...

Post by NateH » Thu Dec 10, 2009 1:57 pm

We're closing in on the value from Dec 31, 2003.

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Post by GlennC » Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:56 pm

It takes character and guts to admit failure.
I'm not sure it was an admission of failure? ;)

Did I make an honest effort at predicting the S&P 500? I was 100% stocks in 2008. In 2009, I've done less stupid things, made up my losses in 2008 and tacked on some gains on top of that. I see market inefficiencies and I try to pounce on them. But I try not to act on where I think the S&P 500 is going (though in the next few years I think it will go up).

medicevans
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Post by medicevans » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:00 pm

I didn't register last year, but I know what the S&P is going to do next year, so if you want, I'll sell you the info for 3 payments of $33.98.

RTR2006
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Post by RTR2006 » Sat Dec 12, 2009 1:37 pm

Wow, I'd better go buy a lottery ticket!

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/

:lol:

RTR

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G12
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Post by G12 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:03 am

Mmmm, it's hard to comprehend in advance to what extent the government will intervene and prop up the market, in this case it is a global event. Does anyone really believe the SPX should be > 1100 with an 18% all-in domestic unemployment rate? Orlando was brutal when I was down there this week for PRI, all is not well in Disney Land no matter what the current market is priced.

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Post by woof755 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:21 am

Gary wrote:I'm 271 out of 294.

I'm not last. That' good. So buy my newsletter.

--Gary

:lol:
"By singing in harmony from the same page of the same investing hymnal, the Diehards drown out market noise." | | --Jason Zweig, quoted in The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing

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Post by minesweep » Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:28 pm

G12 wrote:Does anyone really believe the SPX should be > 1100 with an 18% all-in domestic unemployment rate? Orlando was brutal when I was down there this week for PRI, all is not well in Disney Land no matter what the current market is priced.
There must be some folks who believe it because the S&P wouldn’t be trading at that level otherwise. It’s appears that Mr. Stock Market isn’t looking in the rear view mirror.

Mike

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Post by GlennC » Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:36 pm

Zimbabwe has a terrible economy, yet their stock market has gone up a lot.

Back to the US, the Fed has indicated that it intends on keeping interest rates low... this should usually cause the stock market to go up. When Joe the Plumber is getting no interest on his bank deposits, he is going to think about the stock market (and I believe that mutual funds are starting to advertise again).

And the US government will likely run a deficit... so people may be fearful about inflation and move towards stocks. And all the government stimulus may keep unemployment down in the short term. Obama wants to keep unemployment low... I think he'll print money to do it.

In real terms, the stock market may not go up by much in the future. e.g. in real terms, the Zimbabwe stock market hasn't skyrocketed.

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Post by baw703916 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:59 pm

minesweep wrote:
G12 wrote:Does anyone really believe the SPX should be > 1100 with an 18% all-in domestic unemployment rate? Orlando was brutal when I was down there this week for PRI, all is not well in Disney Land no matter what the current market is priced.
There must be some folks who believe it because the S&P wouldn’t be trading at that level otherwise. It’s appears that Mr. Stock Market isn’t looking in the rear view mirror.

Mike
For comparison, in 1933 the stock market had a gain of over 50%--while official unemployment was at 25%.

Brad
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

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mickeyd
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Post by mickeyd » Sun Dec 13, 2009 1:12 pm

Well, evidently my well-thought-out strategy of adding 5% to the S&P number on 12/31/08 did not work this year, so far.

Note to self~Must buy a better hand-held calculator.
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

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Ducks
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Post by Ducks » Sun Dec 13, 2009 1:50 pm

impressive tracking website. kudos to whomever created it. :)
Getting our Ducks in a row since 2008.

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Fletch
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Post by Fletch » Sun Dec 13, 2009 2:02 pm

medicevans wrote:I didn't register last year, but I know what the S&P is going to do next year, so if you want, I'll sell you the info for 3 payments of $33.98.
Hey folks, I'll sell you the info for only 4 payments of $25 each plus shipping and handling (shhhhh, don't even think about that 3 vs. 4 payment thing) ... does that not sound like a great savings for you - $25 vs. $33.98? I love a free market.

I'm trying to sound like a car sales commercial, or perhaps a ShamWow ad? How did I do?

Fletch
“Meaningless! Meaningless!” says the Teacher. Whoever loves money never has enough; whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with their income. This too is meaningless.

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Mr. Arvesen's contribution

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Dec 13, 2009 3:00 pm

Hi Ducks:
Impressive tracking website. Kudos to whomever created it.
We can all thank Ralph Arvesen who designed the Boglehead Contest program and maintains it for us without cost.

I am sure Mr. Arvesen would like to know how much we appreciate his valuable contribution to the Bogleheads' forum. His e-mail is: Ralph@vertigo.com.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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spam
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Post by spam » Sun Dec 13, 2009 3:19 pm

I predict that chaz will say "the future is unknowable" when he accepts his award.

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Post by minesweep » Mon Dec 14, 2009 12:36 pm

For the moment I'm enjoying No. 1 position.

Mike

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Post by RTR2006 » Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:26 pm

minesweep wrote:For the moment I'm enjoying No. 1 position.

Mike
"...all glory is fleeting."
- Gen. George C. Patton

Me too... I captured the #1 spot last Friday and enjoyed it all weekend long!

8)

RTR

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Post by White Coat Investor » Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:39 pm

I'm counting on a huge year end rally on low volumes.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Post by JeremiahS » Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:57 pm

Looking over all the years of the contest it appears that in 6 out of the 7 years it has been running the average guess by an expert has been higher than an average guess by a Boglehead. I wonder if it says something about how they view their own professions.

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Who is the most ACCURATE guesser ?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:01 pm

JeremiahS wrote:Looking over all the years of the contest it appears that in 6 out of the 7 years it has been running the average guess by an expert has been higher than an average guess by a Boglehead. I wonder if it says something about how they view their own professions.
Hi Jeremiah:

Which has been more accurate: The average Boglehead guess or the average Expert guess?

Thanks

Taylor
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by JeremiahS » Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:11 pm

By year the Bogleheads have been closer on average 4 out of the 7 years contest has run.

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Bogleheads outperform Wall Street experts.

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:52 pm

Jeremiah:

Thank you for your information.

Bogleheads have been better guessers than Wall Street Experts. There is a lesson here.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Post by zhiwiller » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:12 pm

I've posted the same guess every year. I'll post the same guess next year. Some day the market will hit that level and I will be vindicated by saying, I wasn't wrong, just early.

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Post by Ron » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:21 pm

Hey, currently I'm #3 from the top!

Unfortunately, my name is on the 2nd column :lol: ...

- Ron

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Post by speedbump101 » Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:47 pm

Ron wrote:Hey, currently I'm #3 from the top!

Unfortunately, my name is on the 2nd column :lol: ...

- Ron
Ron, welcome to the first column... the sprint to the finish line is on!

SB...
"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal" -Robert A. Heinlein

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Post by mptfan » Thu Dec 31, 2009 4:51 pm

The S&P closed at 1,115.10 for the year. Who won?

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Post by MWCA » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:20 pm

mptfan wrote:The S&P closed at 1,115.10 for the year. Who won?
Looks like MMG

Ron
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Post by Ron » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:34 pm

I finished third (on the second column :roll: )..

- Ron

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Post by speedbump101 » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:42 pm

Ron wrote:I finished third (on the second column :roll: )..

- Ron
More importantly Ron; you beat the pros from Wells Capital, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Newberger Berman... I'd say your year end bonus is secure, congrats you guru! :-)

SB... #63
Edit: #62 :-)
Last edited by speedbump101 on Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Sheepdog » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:49 pm

I'm glad I guessed poorly (1035).
Jim
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Post by Quasimodo » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:53 pm

I could have a brilliant career as a contrary indicator.

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Post by Triple digit golfer » Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:55 pm

Doesn't this contest go against what most of us preach...not trying to guess what the market will do?

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Post by Quasimodo » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:02 pm

I think it's intended as an example of why not to guess what the market will do...

John
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Post by mickeyd » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:14 pm

Triple digit golfer wrote:Doesn't this contest go against what most of us preach...not trying to guess what the market will do?
Yes. 3DG. It reminds us what an idiotic venture it is to try and predict "the market," whatever that is.
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

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BigFoot48
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Rats! No "3" This Year.

Post by BigFoot48 » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:21 pm

Yeehaaa! Top of the list again! Oh wait, wrong column. Never mind.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 13-time loser

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Post by tonythered » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:26 pm

Wow, from 1st to 29th place in 3 weeks. Oh how the mighty have fallen!

Congrats to the winners!

Looks like the experts beat the Bogleheads this go-round though... shhh!

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Post by RTR2006 » Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:48 pm

tonythered wrote:Looks like the experts beat the Bogleheads this go-round though... shhh!
Not as I see it... with everything said and done the experts have all come in behind the Bogleheads.

:lol:

RTR

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Post by gkaplan » Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm

I made a late run but faded in the stretch.
Gordon

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Post by mickeyd » Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:45 pm

Wow, from 1st to 29th place in 3 weeks
Choker... :shock:
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle

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Post by MWCA » Thu Dec 31, 2009 9:00 pm

I forgot to vote this year :oops:

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Post by chaz » Fri Jan 01, 2010 7:19 pm

spam wrote:I predict that chaz will say "the future is unknowable" when he accepts his award.
"the future is unknowable" but there is no award. Sorry.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

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LH
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Post by LH » Fri Jan 01, 2010 9:06 pm

GlennC wrote:
It takes character and guts to admit failure.
I'm not sure it was an admission of failure? ;)

Did I make an honest effort at predicting the S&P 500? I was 100% stocks in 2008. In 2009, I've done less stupid things, made up my losses in 2008 and tacked on some gains on top of that. I see market inefficiencies and I try to pounce on them. But I try not to act on where I think the S&P 500 is going (though in the next few years I think it will go up).
I think you failed. :P

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