[Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply

Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Bull for the next 5 years
77
36%
Bull for the next 5 years
77
36%
Bear for the next 5 years
59
28%
 
Total votes: 213

cudaman
Posts: 351
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:23 pm

[Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by cudaman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:44 pm

Thought it would be interesting to look at the current outlook of Boglehead investors on the U.S. and global stock markets. If you are clearly a bull or bear, your reasons for thinking so would be interesting.

In an attempt not to sway results, I add the following commentary:

Case for Bulls - The U.S. stock market has just experienced a rough 6% downward correction and is below the March 2000 S&P high of 1527.

Case for Bears - The U.S. stock market has just experienced a rough 6% downward correction and is below the March 2000 S&P high of 1527.

I did not add an undecided category in order to entice a decision for one side or the other. Hoping this will be interesting. Thanks for your input.

Jerry

[Edit: I'm not implying S&P 1527 is the all-time high. That would be 1553 on 19 July '07. Just trying to add a time perspective to this poll.]
Last edited by cudaman on Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
mephistophles
Posts: 3110
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2007 2:34 am

Well.......

Post by mephistophles » Sat Jul 28, 2007 5:21 pm

Don't care

User avatar
bob90245
Posts: 6511
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:51 pm

Post by bob90245 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 5:34 pm

I didn't vote. But, I will just point out that for the period from 1926-2003, stocks beat T-Bills 80 percent of the time when measuring 5-year periods.

Image

Source: www.fundadvice.com

User avatar
pjstack
Posts: 1308
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:03 am
Location: Harbor City, CA

Post by pjstack » Sat Jul 28, 2007 5:36 pm

I really wish I knew! I would have a killer newsletter!

(I'll just try to keep plugging along.)
pjstack

User avatar
goosecat
Posts: 174
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 11:57 pm

Post by goosecat » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:11 pm

pjstack wrote:I really wish I knew! I would have a killer newsletter!

(I'll just try to keep plugging along.)


If you really knew, the last thing you'd have is a newsletter because you would be sitting at home quietly making insane amounts of money.

User avatar
Clutch Cargo
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2007 7:21 pm
Location: Illinois

Post by Clutch Cargo » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:36 pm

I didn't vote either because absolutely no one knows. As John Bogle said in his book, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, "Never think you know more than the market. Nobody does."

Clutch Cargo

livesoft
Posts: 56381
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Post by livesoft » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:57 pm

Neither bull nor bear.

User avatar
stratton
Posts: 11080
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 5:05 pm
Location: Puget Sound

Post by stratton » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:58 pm

Don't care II.

Nitsuj
Posts: 1347
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:56 pm
Location: Indiana
Contact:

Post by Nitsuj » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:22 pm

Yes

matt
Posts: 2305
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:47 pm

Post by matt » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:23 pm

Both. Bear followed by bull within 5 years.

ken
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:20 pm

Post by ken » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:58 pm

I didn't vote but I like Bear because I know I will be able to purchase more shares through the dollar-cost average strategy 8)

Cubsfan
Posts: 101
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 2:38 pm

Write two newletters under two different names

Post by Cubsfan » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:03 pm

pjstack wrote:I really wish I knew! I would have a killer newsletter!

(I'll just try to keep plugging along.)


Keep the one that turns out to be right. Kill off the other one. Mutual funds have survivorship bias - why not your newsletters?

User avatar
cfs
Posts: 3373
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am
Location: ~ Inactivestand ~

NOTA option missing

Post by cfs » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:18 pm

Thanks for asking.

I don't know but I DO care.
~ No Internet Interest ~

User avatar
mlebuf
Posts: 1783
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:27 pm
Location: Paradise Valley, Arizona

Post by mlebuf » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:32 pm

Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Yes.
Best wishes, | Michael | | Invest your time actively and your money passively.

User avatar
United
Posts: 447
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:45 pm

Post by United » Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:12 pm

Historically, stocks have beat other asset classes over 5-year periods. Thus, the correct answer is bull.

investor
Posts: 1001
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:50 pm

Post by investor » Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:33 pm

It's a Bear 2009-2010 then Bull for six years..... sorry to give up the answer and ruin your curiosity but darn it all you did ask.... :shock:

User avatar
WiseNLucky
Posts: 634
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 5:14 am
Location: South Florida

Post by WiseNLucky » Sun Jul 29, 2007 7:39 am

Another "yes" who didn't vote.
WiseNLucky

User avatar
Robert T
Posts: 2437
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:40 pm
Location: 1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.5
Contact:

Post by Robert T » Sun Jul 29, 2007 8:31 am

.
FWIW

Bear'ish' market

Reasons: The past five year returns have been much higher than the expected long-term average – which for my 75:25 equity:fixed income portfolio is about 7.5 percent (estimated from the 30-year asset class projections of Rick Ferri and Bill Bernstein, and the historical factor premium data from Fama-French). The (almost) 5 year annualized return of my portfolio (since start of 2003) is closer to 17.5 percent. So I don’t expect these strong returns to continue but to average (mean) out closer to 7.5 percent. This can only happen if there are low or negative returns sometime in the future – possibly over the next five years given RTM tendencies of the market.

Implications IMO: No change to asset allocation (no need to get greedy or fearful – stay the course – rebalance as needed). This would also be the implications if there was a bull market over the next five years (at least for me).

Robert
.

User avatar
shadowrings
Posts: 413
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:01 pm
Location: squatting around Prescott,AZ :-)

Post by shadowrings » Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:45 am

'nother non-vote
Knowing your own darkness is the best method for dealing with the darknesses of other people. | --- Carl G. Jung

User avatar
Random Musings
Posts: 5209
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 4:24 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Post by Random Musings » Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:19 pm

More bearish than bullish over the next five years (I like bonds over equity) - especially over the next 2-3 years. But, a black swan event could make it end a little quicker.

Also, expect small-caps to underperform large-caps world-wide.

RM

User avatar
zhiwiller
Posts: 1254
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:47 pm
Location: Central Florida
Contact:

Post by zhiwiller » Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:41 pm

I'm glad there are so many bears. If everyone was bullish, I'd be frightened with my heavy stock allocation.

dwbogle
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 1:08 am

Post by dwbogle » Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:07 pm

United wrote:Historically, stocks have beat other asset classes over 5-year periods. Thus, the correct answer is bull.


To be more specific, when looking at 5-year periods ... stocks beat other asset classes 75% of the time.

User avatar
paulob
Posts: 1408
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:54 am

Post by paulob » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:48 am

Bull

I went with the law of averages, other than that, I don't have a clue.
Paul

User avatar
redbeard
Posts: 311
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 9:36 am
Location: Dallas, Texas

Post by redbeard » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:42 am

Why, this is so obvious! I won't even vote.

But for those who want to know, the answer is in the title of this article I found today on the AP: Stock poised to lower higher

;)

xzhou
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon May 28, 2007 1:14 am

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by xzhou » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:48 pm

This is a fun exercise. Let's do it again!

CantPassAgain
Posts: 426
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2013 8:49 pm

Re:

Post by CantPassAgain » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:52 pm

investor wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:33 pm
It's a Bear 2009-2010 then Bull for six years..... sorry to give up the answer and ruin your curiosity but darn it all you did ask.... :shock:
Pretty close!

User avatar
Top99%
Posts: 153
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:30 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by Top99% » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:09 am

My best guess is sideways but that wasn't a choice.
Adapt or perish

Greg in Idaho
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by Greg in Idaho » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:37 am

It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops:

User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 232
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by Portfolio7 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:21 am

Greg in Idaho wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:37 am
It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops:
Sure, but part of the function of this site is also to help each other stay the course. Our instincts tend to work against what logic tells us is effective, and most of us know we have gaps in our ability to follow this guidance. I know I do. There are a lot of threads like this, but you'll also see in those comments many Bogleheads leading the conversation back to the golden path, so to speak.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

ohmygodabear
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:49 pm

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by ohmygodabear » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:47 am

If I had to bet I'd be a bull. Starry eyed technologist.

Fusion and quantum computing right around the corner, as they have been for 40 years. This time is surely different. 8-)

More Please
Posts: 129
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:13 am

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by More Please » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:17 pm

Either way, I'm ready.

User avatar
k66
Posts: 397
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by k66 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:38 pm

Bull AND Bear for the next 5 year? Absolutely.

I'm good to go.
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

visualguy
Posts: 313
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:32 am

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by visualguy » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:47 pm

Top99% wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:09 am
My best guess is sideways but that wasn't a choice.
+1

Mostly sideways with ups and downs on the way.

22twain
Posts: 1119
Joined: Thu May 10, 2012 5:42 pm

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by 22twain » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:05 pm

I hope nobody's been voting in that poll since this thread was revived after more than ten years. Great way to contaminate a data set!

User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 710
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by oldzey » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:59 am

"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

User avatar
Alexa9
Posts: 322
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:41 am

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by Alexa9 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:16 am

Assuming WW3 doesn't break out, I think we'll be ok.

User avatar
Tycoon
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:06 pm

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Post by Tycoon » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:21 am

...I might be just beginning | I might be near the end. Enya | | C'est la vie

Post Reply