NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

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random_walker_77
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NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by random_walker_77 »

Nvidia's in the news a lot, and is now the most valuable company, worth some 200 Billion more than Apple. Today, it's up almost 5% to a record high. If you feel like you might be missing out, don't worry. You probably already own some and it might even be your largest stock holding.

If you're primarily invested in VTI (total stock market index), it is its single largest holding, followed by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Berkshire. Some days, we might fret that this is a bad thing. Some days, we'll be happy that we're benefitting from the top gainers. With indexing, you own everything, in the same proportions as "the market." With indexing, you won't be beating the market, but you do benefit from the collective decisions of market participants and get overall market returns, for better or for worse. And as we've heard, it's really hard to consistently beat the market, so you can do much worse than indexing
Normchad
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Normchad »

This is why it’s great to be an indexer! I’m benefitting nicely from the run up in NVDA, even though I didn’t do any research or make any decisions about it.

Years ago, maybe as far back as 2018 or so, I had coworkers that were big on Nvidia. They were very excited about it, and buying it up, and making decent money at it I suppose. I did briefly look at it out of curiosity, and as I often do, I concluded that all the fun was over. And I just kept in indexing.

Hopefully my former colleagues stuck with it and have profited hugely. I’m rooting for them.

But I’m also completely, 100% satisfied with my indexed returns.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Some other companies were also once the biggest companies too:
IBM
Exxon
Microsoft
AT&T
NTT (Japan)
Altria
General Electric
Petro China
Saudi Aramco
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
Robin1234
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

Year NVDA Weight in VGT
2014 ~1.5%
2015 ~1.8%
2016 ~2.5%
2017 ~3.5%
2018 ~4.0%
2019 ~5.0%
2020 ~6.5%
2021 ~8.0%
2022 ~10.0%
2023 ~12.5%
2024 ~15.4%

Year NVDA Weight in VTI
2014 ~0.5%
2015 ~0.7%
2016 ~1.0%
2017 ~1.5%
2018 ~2.0%
2019 ~2.5%
2020 ~3.5%
2021 ~4.5%
2022 ~5.0%
2023 ~5.5%
2024 ~6.0%
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tipswatcher
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by tipswatcher »

random_walker_77 wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 2:44 pm Nvidia's in the news a lot, and is now the most valuable company, worth some 200 Billion more than Apple. Today, it's up almost 5% to a record high. If you feel like you might be missing out, don't worry. You probably already own some and it might even be your largest stock holding.
Yeah, I do own some. I bought an allocation in 2019 and my cost basis is now about $3.50. Over time I have sold out of about 4x my original investment and the last time I sold, I decided to just hang on. It is ridiculous that this stock has a YTD return of more than 190%. But at this point, I'll just enjoy the inevitable roller-coaster ride, potentially starting tomorrow.

Why did I buy NVDA? Because I like its gaming CPUs, which are first class. That was ages ago and it was practically a ho-hum stock in 2019. Then came Bitcoin mining .. skyrocket! ... and then AI ... triple skyrocket! I don't buy aggressive stocks, and this wasn't aggressive when I bought it. So this entire adventure was luck.
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sharukh
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by sharukh »

Robin1234 wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 5:36 pm Year NVDA Weight in VGT
2014 ~1.5%
2015 ~1.8%
2016 ~2.5%
2017 ~3.5%
2018 ~4.0%
2019 ~5.0%
2020 ~6.5%
2021 ~8.0%
2022 ~10.0%
2023 ~12.5%
2024 ~15.4%

Year NVDA Weight in VTI
2014 ~0.5%
2015 ~0.7%
2016 ~1.0%
2017 ~1.5%
2018 ~2.0%
2019 ~2.5%
2020 ~3.5%
2021 ~4.5%
2022 ~5.0%
2023 ~5.5%
2024 ~6.0%
Hi,

I am curious where you find this nicely summarized data.

Thank you
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Hacksawdave
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Hacksawdave »

Many here began accumulation of NVDA in November of 2001 when it was placed in the S&P 500. I have around 550 shares of the aforementioned stock through index funds. I have been acquiring these shares since November of 2001 when it replaced Enron in the S&P 500 for less than 50 cents a share (split adjusted). Until the AI craze I never knew what a Nvidia was except that it replaced Enron in my funds in November of 2001.
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Beensabu
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Beensabu »

random_walker_77 wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 2:44 pm If you feel like you might be missing out, don't worry. You probably already own some and it might even be your largest stock holding.
I don't own any of it, and I don't feel like I'm missing out. Go figure.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by jharkin »

Funny. When I got my first real, full time, job in industry I knew nothing of this place and dabbled in buying stocks. I bought tech stocks as that was what I knew. This was probably around y2k, I dumped a couple grand total (a few weeks pay back then) into NVDA, AMD and CSCO.

We all know what happened a year later. My CSCO stock became almost worthless and the NVDA just sat there like a flatline. So I decided I should read up on indexing and sold it all at a loss.



You know where this is going. If I had just sat on that $1k of NVDA, today it would be worth nearly as much as my entire 401k balance. :oops:
Cah
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Cah »

We all have our shoulda woulda coulda stories. Sorry for any losses anyone takes.
Trading individual stocks is very hard work.
Keep saving your money it's going to beca long winter.
Robin1234
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

Ran in to this headlines today OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-g ... n6RtWsmCQK
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random_walker_77
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by random_walker_77 »

Robin1234 wrote: Wed Nov 20, 2024 1:30 pm Ran in to this headlines today OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-g ... n6RtWsmCQK
Keep in mind there's multiple kinds of AI applications. Language models in the style of ChatGPT have all the attention because they turned out to be surprisingly useful and show promise. But deep learning AI is also working for image recognition, image generation, video generation, robotics, driving etc. There are scientific advances coming from applying it to weather forecasting, to protein shape prediction, and even to containing plasma in fusion reactors.

Up until this AI revolution, computers have been poor at identifying objects in pictures. Robots have been really poor at delicate tasks. This is starting to change and more useful robotic automation is probably coming at some point.

I wouldn't be surprised if, a decade from now, security cameras have the equivalent of a security guard watching every video stream, ready to raise an alert if it sees a crime in progress and flag the relevant seconds of video to a human.

There's a lot of hype. I remember in 2018 thinking that self-driving seemed like it was at least a decade away. It's still got a long ways to go to reach the safety and reliability levels that I think we deserve, but it sure has come a long ways from the X prize days where autonomously driving between 2 points in the open desert was a near miracle.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by itsmeagain »

With its $3.5 trillion market cap, Nvidia is supposedly worth about the same as the entire UK stock market. :shock:
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by BuglheadLuvsLondon »

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johnegonpdx
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by johnegonpdx »

adventures in FOMO is always fun. just make sure to have yours as early as possible in your investing life. for me it was the late 90's. different ticker symbols, but same story.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by BuglheadLuvsLondon »

random_walker_77 wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 2:44 pm Nvidia's in the news a lot, and is now the most valuable company, worth some 200 Billion more than Apple. Today, it's up almost 5% to a record high. If you feel like you might be missing out, don't worry. You probably already own some and it might even be your largest stock holding.

If you're primarily invested in VTI (total stock market index), it is its single largest holding, followed by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Berkshire. Some days, we might fret that this is a bad thing. Some days, we'll be happy that we're benefitting from the top gainers. With indexing, you own everything, in the same proportions as "the market." With indexing, you won't be beating the market, but you do benefit from the collective decisions of market participants and get overall market returns, for better or for worse. And as we've heard, it's really hard to consistently beat the market, so you can do much worse than indexing
I bought my first shares of Nvidia on November 30th, 2001, at $53.91 a share and just kept on buying. No regrets.
Robin1234
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

itsmeagain wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 9:55 am With its $3.5 trillion market cap, Nvidia is supposedly worth about the same as the entire UK stock market. :shock:
Is this the first time or has this or something similar happened earlier? Sometimes the same data presented in different ways seems to be more shocking than otherwise.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by LilyFleur »

random_walker_77 wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 2:44 pm Nvidia's in the news a lot, and is now the most valuable company, worth some 200 Billion more than Apple. Today, it's up almost 5% to a record high. If you feel like you might be missing out, don't worry. You probably already own some and it might even be your largest stock holding.

If you're primarily invested in VTI (total stock market index), it is its single largest holding, followed by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Berkshire. Some days, we might fret that this is a bad thing. Some days, we'll be happy that we're benefitting from the top gainers. With indexing, you own everything, in the same proportions as "the market." With indexing, you won't be beating the market, but you do benefit from the collective decisions of market participants and get overall market returns, for better or for worse. And as we've heard, it's really hard to consistently beat the market, so you can do much worse than indexing
Thanks for reminding us; this is an excellent perspective.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by random_walker_77 »

Robin1234 wrote: Wed Nov 27, 2024 9:27 am
itsmeagain wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2024 9:55 am With its $3.5 trillion market cap, Nvidia is supposedly worth about the same as the entire UK stock market. :shock:
Is this the first time or has this or something similar happened earlier? Sometimes the same data presented in different ways seems to be more shocking than otherwise.
That does seem shocking, but on closer inspection, this doesn't look quite right to me. I'm seeing the combined valuation of companies on the London Stock Exchange at 3.75 trillion gpb (https://www.statista.com/statistics/324 ... -exchange/)

At current exchange rates, that's about 4.4T dollars. If not Nvidia, Apple is up there, but I don't think either quite caught up to the entirety of the UK stock market, though they're in the same ballpark. At the same time, keep in mind that the UK's GDP is about 3.3 trillion USD, while the GDP of California is 4 trillion, Texas is 2.7 trillion, and NY is 2.3 trillion. You might have seen maps similar to these, comparing the GDP of countries to US states: https://pgcgroup.com/blog/us-states-gdp ... -countries
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by tdgb »

Well said!
Reminds me of another post I saw recently saying that we should pay particular attention to the details of an index when trying to diversify: the flip-side of the coin with these top gainers is that they can end up in every and any index...
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by james874 »

Also, NVIDIA's RPE this year is really high at $2M when compared to most companies in the tech sector (typically $200K to $800K). For me the NVIDIA hype = real value.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Baylor Boy »

[duplicate]
Last edited by Baylor Boy on Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Baylor Boy »

Normchad wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 3:43 pm Years ago, maybe as far back as 2018 or so, I had coworkers that were big on Nvidia. They were very excited about it, and buying it up, and making decent money at it I suppose. I did briefly look at it out of curiosity, and as I often do, I concluded that all the fun was over. And I just kept in indexing.

Hopefully my former colleagues stuck with it and have profited hugely. I’m rooting for them.

But I’m also completely, 100% satisfied with my indexed returns.
I have a good friend that bought a nominal amount (maybe $25k) sometime in the early 2010's as just part of his portfolio. He showed me a couple of months ago that the position is now worth $18M. He was joking that that one stock buy will be worth more if he sells than his 25 years practicing as a surgeon.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

Adding here just for records sake: NVIDIA DRIVE Partners Showcase Latest Mobility Innovations at CES
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/drive-par ... wcase-ces/
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

Baylor Boy wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:58 am
Normchad wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 3:43 pm Years ago, maybe as far back as 2018 or so, I had coworkers that were big on Nvidia. They were very excited about it, and buying it up, and making decent money at it I suppose. I did briefly look at it out of curiosity, and as I often do, I concluded that all the fun was over. And I just kept in indexing.

Hopefully my former colleagues stuck with it and have profited hugely. I’m rooting for them.

But I’m also completely, 100% satisfied with my indexed returns.
I have a good friend that bought a nominal amount (maybe $25k) sometime in the early 2010's as just part of his portfolio. He showed me a couple of months ago that the position is now worth $18M. He was joking that that one stock buy will be worth more if he sells than his 25 years practicing as a surgeon.
That's good to know. But for most common folks how many such nominal bets can they make anyway. If you consider 2010, there is very little reason for anyone to pick NVIDIA. I work in high tech, lived not too far from Nvidia yet there was no reason for it to attract my or any of my friend's attention. In fact an acquaintance who worked there before the boom, meekly shared he worked for Nvidia vs FB or Goog. So I wonder sitting right now, how can one point out the next Nvidia, or even a cluster of 10-20 from which at least one Nvidia is guaranteed to emerge. For otherwise all that money is wasted on losers, rather than be sitting in VTI - right? It seems it is FOMO and we need to just live with it, unless I am missing something here.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Nathan Drake »

Baylor Boy wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:58 am
Normchad wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 3:43 pm Years ago, maybe as far back as 2018 or so, I had coworkers that were big on Nvidia. They were very excited about it, and buying it up, and making decent money at it I suppose. I did briefly look at it out of curiosity, and as I often do, I concluded that all the fun was over. And I just kept in indexing.

Hopefully my former colleagues stuck with it and have profited hugely. I’m rooting for them.

But I’m also completely, 100% satisfied with my indexed returns.
I have a good friend that bought a nominal amount (maybe $25k) sometime in the early 2010's as just part of his portfolio. He showed me a couple of months ago that the position is now worth $18M. He was joking that that one stock buy will be worth more if he sells than his 25 years practicing as a surgeon.
Assuming he sells. There’s nothing preventing the stock from losing a significant amount of value in a short time.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by bgf »

saw a breakdown recently that the SP500 would have returned 18% had NVDA not been part of the index... International returned I think 8%. so had you literally just shifted NVDA from SP500 to International, International would have outperformed SP500 in 2024.

investing, even in indexes, is still driven by the tails. cool stuff. invest in the market. the whole market.
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manuvns
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by manuvns »

NVDA is over priced ( 30% or more ) so are US large cap stocks ( at least 20-25% )
Thanks!
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:00 pm
Baylor Boy wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:58 am

I have a good friend that bought a nominal amount (maybe $25k) sometime in the early 2010's as just part of his portfolio. He showed me a couple of months ago that the position is now worth $18M. He was joking that that one stock buy will be worth more if he sells than his 25 years practicing as a surgeon.
Assuming he sells. There’s nothing preventing the stock from losing a significant amount of value in a short time.
One silly thought experiment I tried. What if this friend has enough money to invest. Say $5M to spare.
Now there are about 5000 listed companies across Nasdaq & Nyse, so he pumps 1K in to each of them.
At least one of them is bound to be Nvidia. So in this case it seems his $1k in Nvidia will become $720K (1/25 of 18M).
However this seems quite bad - because for $5M one ends with only $1M in hand :shock:
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

BTW here is a visualization of the amount of cash chasing NVIDIA & it's AI friends https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charte ... ts-launch/
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Econberkeley »

bgf wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:26 pm investing, even in indexes, is still driven by the tails.
tails? What do you mean?
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by bgf »

Econberkeley wrote: Mon Jan 13, 2025 10:24 pm
bgf wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:26 pm investing, even in indexes, is still driven by the tails.
tails? What do you mean?
rare or outlier events. I just thought it was interesting that you can literally shift one single company out of 10,000 from one group (US) to the other (International) and their relative performance flip flops.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by HighLonesome »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 4:19 pm Some other companies were also once the biggest companies too:
IBM
Exxon
Microsoft
AT&T
NTT (Japan)
Altria
General Electric
Petro China
Saudi Aramco
Its posts like this that remind why I must index.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by nisiprius »

Meanwhile:

Techcrunch:

Image

This can be spun lots of ways and might be just a glitch, or unimportant in the long run, but it's not good.

One shouldn't trust the total truthfulness of CEO pronouncements about a company's financial problems, but he implies in an aw-shucks way "I personally chose the price and thought we would make some money" and said they had never done a pricing study. I can't speak to the technology but that doesn't sound like great business management.
OpenAI isn’t profitable, despite having raised around $20 billion since its founding. The company reportedly expected losses of about $5 billion on revenue of $3.7 billion last year.
If they aren't making a profit on their top-tier product, the one presumably bought by their best customers who are most willing to pay, that doesn't sound good.
I believe we tested two prices, $20 and $42. People thought $42 was a little too much. They were happy to pay $20. We picked $20.
He gives it an optimistic spin--it's because their customers are using it more than the expected. But if their customers have already told them that $42 was too much, there's a least a question whether they can fix the problem by raising the price.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by manuvns »

i only look at vti when it hits all time high , then buy a coffee
Thanks!
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by FoolMeOnce »

Beensabu wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 6:27 pm
random_walker_77 wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 2:44 pm If you feel like you might be missing out, don't worry. You probably already own some and it might even be your largest stock holding.
I don't own any of it, and I don't feel like I'm missing out. Go figure.
You don't have any index funds???
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Beensabu »

FoolMeOnce wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 8:27 am
Beensabu wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 6:27 pm I don't own any of it, and I don't feel like I'm missing out. Go figure.
You don't have any index funds???
I have some index funds. I don't have any index funds (or other funds) that have NVDA in them.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by FoolMeOnce »

Beensabu wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:34 am
FoolMeOnce wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 8:27 am

You don't have any index funds???
I have some index funds. I don't have any index funds (or other funds) that have NVDA in them.
Interesting. If you don't mind, sharing more, what does your portfolio look like? And even if you don't want to share those details, was it a conscious decision to choose funds that avoid tech?
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by nisiprius »

FoolMeOnce wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 12:43 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:34 am

I have some index funds. I don't have any index funds (or other funds) that have NVDA in them.
Interesting. If you don't mind, sharing more, what does your portfolio look like? And even if you don't want to share those details, was it a conscious decision to choose funds that avoid tech?
Can't speek to Beensabu's strategy, but the Vanguard Value Index Fund, with $195 billion in assets, has no NVIDIA, and I would guess many value tilted index funds don't.
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Beensabu »

FoolMeOnce wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 12:43 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:34 am I have some index funds. I don't have any index funds (or other funds) that have NVDA in them.
Interesting. If you don't mind, sharing more, what does your portfolio look like? And even if you don't want to share those details, was it a conscious decision to choose funds that avoid tech?
My portfolio is weird and could probably just be 4 index funds instead tbh.

18% - global energy/utilities (active)
10% - US small/mid growth (active)
9% - US dividend growth (active) - this was US stock market 1.5 years ago
9% - international developed (index)
4% - international total stock market (index)
---
18% - high yield bond (active)
18% - long term treasuries (index)
10% - US total bond (index)
4% - international total bond (index)
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Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

Adding Deepseek and the selloff news https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/t ... CS-OUSBS_1
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Raraculus
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Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:43 am

Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Raraculus »

Imitating Leo DiCaprio, pointing at the TV - "I've seen this before!" With the Bogleheads forums nailing the top of the ARK fund. And, I suspect, with NVIDIA being tagged similarly here in this thread, with nowhere to go but down....

That NVIDIA stock sure isn't looking too good these days, with the DeepSeek news.
Valuethinker
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Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Valuethinker »

Raraculus wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 12:15 pm Imitating Leo DiCaprio, pointing at the TV - "I've seen this before!" With the Bogleheads forums nailing the top of the ARK fund. And, I suspect, with NVIDIA being tagged similarly here in this thread, with nowhere to go but down....

That NVIDIA stock sure isn't looking too good these days, with the DeepSeek news.
Honestly I think there is less of that performance chasing than almost any other place that discusses stocks and investing that I have seen on the internets.

We *do* get a certain habit of thread, like "100% equities" that, without having done systematic study or tracking, seems to occur when we've had long bull runs.

And the inevitable threads about someone wanting to add leverage to the mix. Either leverage in individual stocks, or in their portfolios as a whole.

But the vast majority of posters here either counsel ignoring the waves of bullish enthusiasm, and staying the course with broad based index funds. OR they don't post at all in these threads, which suggests they aren't performance chasing there, either.
Robin1234
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Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:23 am

Re: NVDA hits all-time high, y'all probably own some

Post by Robin1234 »

Adding some more news on the topic. I did not know this was failing in tests at such high rates: 60% for western AI and 80% for the new Chinese Deepseek. My impression was these things were acceptably accurate and trustworthy.

From the article:
The chatbot repeated false claims 30% of the time and gave vague or not useful answers 53% of the time in response to news-related prompts, resulting in an 83% fail rate, according to a report published by trustworthiness rating service NewsGuard on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/dee ... 025-01-29/
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