Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

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Dsc8
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Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Dsc8 »

Hey guys,

Goldman Sachs have predict that u.s stock will be around 3% annually for the next decade.

What can be done to improve that number assuming it will be correct?

Does a world index with u.s being at 50-60% of all stocks will perform better?
Harmanic
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Harmanic »

My time machine is broken. I'll let you know after I get it fixed.
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Johm221122
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Johm221122 »

Raising your savings rate and plan on spending less in retirement are two ways help with having enough money to retire
firegooner
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by firegooner »

This is why I diversify with international stocks. Maybe US stocks will outperform forever, maybe they won't. No one really knows (even the smart people at Goldman Sachs).

:sharebeer
Last edited by firegooner on Wed Oct 23, 2024 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
mbwalker98
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by mbwalker98 »

Here's a good analysis of the 3% prediction: https://www.independentvanguardadviser. ... -forecast/

Bottom line, if you don't want to read the analysis: "But how much consideration should you give these forecasts and projections? Very little."
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by TheTimeLord »

Dsc8 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:50 pm Hey guys,

Goldman Sachs have predict that u.s stock will be around 3% annually for the next decade.

What can be done to improve that number assuming it will be correct?

Does a world index with u.s being at 50-60% of all stocks will perform better?
Real or nominal?
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stimulacra
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by stimulacra »

Diversify away from US Equities?

If I were to take that prediction seriously I would probably move towards a 60/40 allocation with global weighted caps on equities.

Maybe beef up on BND/VBTLX.

For my personal situation, it might mean shifting 10% from one fund to another at some point in 2025.
TipsQuestions
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by TipsQuestions »

The market doesn't care about Goldman's predictions, which are usually worse than coin flips:

"In a research note out this week, Goldman Sachs’ top strategists predict that stocks will once again disappoint next year. Goldman predicts the S&P 500 will go nowhere in the coming year, ending 2016 at 2,100. The stock market index is already at 2,090."

https://fortune.com/2015/11/25/goldman- ... ions-2016/
Back Dr
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Back Dr »

Since when is this company ever right about any prognostication? The answer is never.
Retiree mantra: keep your stock allocation below your risk tolerance and do not kid yourself about your risk tolerance.
steadyosmosis
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by steadyosmosis »

Savings rate trumps (almost?) everything else regarding retirement preparedness.
Early-retired ... portfolio AA 50/50 ... (46% tIRA, 33% RIRA, 16% taxable, 5% HSA) ... (16% SCHB, 16% VTI, 13% SCHF, 5% VITSX, 50% US Treasuries).
MorgansRun
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by MorgansRun »

The real question is: what are they do with their personal accounts? We'll never know.
tesuzuki2002
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

Dsc8 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:50 pm Hey guys,

Goldman Sachs have predict that u.s stock will be around 3% annually for the next decade.

What can be done to improve that number assuming it will be correct?

Does a world index with u.s being at 50-60% of all stocks will perform better?
Once reality sets in the market drops 40% in the coming year... The reset that most all are anticipating....


THEN we will get back on the right track with gains going forward of about 5-9% per year.
rogue_economist
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by rogue_economist »

Their prediction is well aligned with Jack Bogle's wisdom.
We have had a period of above historical average returns since 2009. While the next decade could continue the trend, reversion to the mean is what history would predict has to happen eventually. The longer we go without that happening the more the reversion has to be if we are to return to historical levels of investment return.
So 3% might be a shot in the dark, but its in the right direction.
As to retirement, I find most FIRE and some retirement planning today is based in overly favorable assumptions.
I would construct a scenario based on the 3% return, and see what happens in portfolio modeling software.
If you prepare for 3% and get 10% you will live well. If you prepare for 10% and get 3% you may work much longer than planned and live sparsely. Prepare for the worst, enjoy the best.
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grabiner
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by grabiner »

I don't think even Goldman Sachs believes the 3% number.

If they expected that the stock market would return 3% over the next ten years, they would sell all their stock and buy 10-year Treasury bonds, which yield 4.24% risk-free, and advise their clients to do the same.
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JBTX
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by JBTX »

This isn’t far from what Bogle predicted in his last years. Even he was wrong.

All of these predictions assume some level of historical mean reversion.
alex_686
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by alex_686 »

Johm221122 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 2:03 pm Raising your savings rate and plan on spending less in retirement are two ways help with having enough money to retire
This is the correct answer.

The other answer that is often given is to load up on risk and stretch for those returns.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
alex_686
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by alex_686 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 2:08 pm Real or nominal?
I would assume real. That is in line with various P/E measures. They are high.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
CuriousGeorgeTx
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by CuriousGeorgeTx »

The future is unknown and unknowable.

They could be right, just as a broken clock is right twice a day.

Even if the average is correct, the sequence of returns that gets to that average will present many opportunities and challenges.

When I turned 50, I attended MegaCorp's retirement seminar, presented by an actuary consultant. During a break, I told him that, with relatively modest changes in assumptions, I either died penniless or left my heirs millions. He said "What's wrong with this? Work until you're not having fun any more, then live off of what you have."

It turns out that the Sequence of Returns gods smiled upon me and my heirs and charities will be well provided for despite our spending what we want doing what we want in retirement. There was no way of knowing we would end up like this.

This leads to what others have said. All you can control is what you save and how you invest it.
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Random Musings
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Random Musings »

If I had a dollar for every time GS made a prediction...

RM
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RetiredAL
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by RetiredAL »

First they sow fear.

Then they sell you hope -- that they can do better for you.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by whodidntante »

Dsc8 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:50 pm Hey guys,

Goldman Sachs have predict that u.s stock will be around 3% annually for the next decade.

What can be done to improve that number assuming it will be correct?

Does a world index with u.s being at 50-60% of all stocks will perform better?
Goldman has a continuum of talent. Who at Goldman Sachs said this, and what exactly did they say? What was the context they said it in?

I guess it depends on what you plan to do if you accept that person's assertion. If it keeps you from leaving a high paying job to retire with too little money at age 35, then I guess it's a good thing. If it causes you to own more than the S&P 500 or to save a bit more, also a good thing.
sc9182
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by sc9182 »

I am thinking definitely over 3.1% or may be considerably higher.
jimkinny
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by jimkinny »

The odds are really good that in the next ten years, the stock markets will go down by 20%-40%, maybe 2-3 times in the next 10 years. If that happens, how is your personal return affected, if you buy stocks, when the markets are down by 30%?
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gatorking
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by gatorking »

One take on this prediction: https://ritholtz.com/2024/10/3-great-de ... 70s-2020s/
Vanguard annualized return projection for the next 10 years is 3.2% to 5.2%, nominal https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/ ... rspectives
lostdog
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by lostdog »

RetiredAL wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 9:24 pm First they sow fear.

Then they sell you hope -- that they can do better for you.
+1

This!
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by mikejuss »

Nobody knows nothing, OP. Just continue earning (this is the most important), saving, and investing, and--God willing--all will turn out well. Predictions like Goldman Sachs's aren't worth the pixels that they're occupying on your computer screen.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by watchnerd »

grabiner wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 8:24 pm I don't think even Goldman Sachs believes the 3% number.

If they expected that the stock market would return 3% over the next ten years, they would sell all their stock and buy 10-year Treasury bonds, which yield 4.24% risk-free, and advise their clients to do the same.
Well, they gave a 72% chance that Treasuries outperform S&P500.
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watchnerd
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by watchnerd »

alex_686 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 8:50 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 2:08 pm Real or nominal?
I would assume real. That is in line with various P/E measures. They are high.
It was nominal in the story I read.

1% real assuming 2% inflation.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Northern Flicker »

mbwalker98 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 2:06 pm Here's a good analysis of the 3% prediction: https://www.independentvanguardadviser. ... -forecast/

Bottom line, if you don't want to read the analysis: "But how much consideration should you give these forecasts and projections? Very little."
That article also answered the OP's question of what can be done:
The bottom line is that the future is always unknowable. The logical answer is to hold a diversified portfolio that can do reasonably well in various market environments.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by mikejuss »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 12:36 pm
alex_686 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 8:50 pm

I would assume real. That is in line with various P/E measures. They are high.
It was nominal in the story I read.

1% real assuming 2% inflation.
And what miraculous product could I possibly purchase from Goldman Sachs (I'm thinking something with a real high expense ratio) that will outperform their prediction of a 3% return?
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Harmanic
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Harmanic »

Just to add, while I am awaiting the parts I need to fix my time machine, here is a good read from the White Coat Investor.

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/optim ... s-finance/
The question isn't at what age I want to retire, it's at what income. | - George Foreman
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watchnerd
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by watchnerd »

mikejuss wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 12:40 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 12:36 pm

It was nominal in the story I read.

1% real assuming 2% inflation.
And what miraculous product could I possibly purchase from Goldman Sachs (I'm thinking something with a real high expense ratio) that will outperform their prediction of a 3% return?
TIPS are currently paying >1% real.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by mikejuss »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 1:03 pm
mikejuss wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 12:40 pm

And what miraculous product could I possibly purchase from Goldman Sachs (I'm thinking something with a real high expense ratio) that will outperform their prediction of a 3% return?
TIPS are currently paying >1% real.
Yes--Goldman Sachs is advising all of us to invest in TIPS. :wink:
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watchnerd
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by watchnerd »

mikejuss wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 1:05 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 1:03 pm

TIPS are currently paying >1% real.
Yes--Goldman Sachs is advising all of us to invest in TIPS. :wink:
Oh, I'm sure they'll sex it up somehow with leverage or synthetic options or something.
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grabiner
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by grabiner »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 12:30 pm
grabiner wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 8:24 pm I don't think even Goldman Sachs believes the 3% number.

If they expected that the stock market would return 3% over the next ten years, they would sell all their stock and buy 10-year Treasury bonds, which yield 4.24% risk-free, and advise their clients to do the same.
Well, they gave a 72% chance that Treasuries outperform S&P500.
That's actually inconsistent with the predictions. Assuming a normal distribution of returns, a 72% probability that A outperforms B implies that the expected difference is 0.58 standard deviations. So if the stock market is expected to return 3% with a probability of 72% of earning less than 4.24%, it would have a standard deviation of 2.14%. That is much less than the historical volatility of stock returns over a ten-year period.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by mikejuss »

Goldman. :D Sachs. :D Is. :D Selling. :D Products. :D
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bendix
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by bendix »

I dont know that GS has a great track record in makgin such forecasts.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by watchnerd »

grabiner wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:02 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 12:30 pm

Well, they gave a 72% chance that Treasuries outperform S&P500.
That's actually inconsistent with the predictions. Assuming a normal distribution of returns, a 72% probability that A outperforms B implies that the expected difference is 0.58 standard deviations. So if the stock market is expected to return 3% with a probability of 72% of earning less than 4.24%, it would have a standard deviation of 2.14%. That is much less than the historical volatility of stock returns over a ten-year period.
*shrug*

I'm just quoting the article.

Maybe 3% is the average with a lot of positive and negative spikes.
Last edited by watchnerd on Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by J295 »

GS predicts. Maybe right maybe not. A broken clock is correct twice a day.

Low returns have been predicted for quite some time. See this. viewtopic.php?t=361118
Hasn’t been the case thus far.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by grabiner »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:59 pm
grabiner wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:02 pm
(Goldman Sachs forecasts 3% S&P 500 ten-year returns and 72% probability of underperforming Treasuries).

That's actually inconsistent with the predictions. Assuming a normal distribution of returns, a 72% probability that A outperforms B implies that the expected difference is 0.58 standard deviations. So if the stock market is expected to return 3% with a probability of 72% of earning less than 4.24%, it would have a standard deviation of 2.14%. That is much less than the historical volatility of stock returns over a ten-year period.
*shrug*

I'm just quoting the article.

Maybe 3% is the average with a lot of positive and negative spikes.
I don't mean to shoot the messenger here.

My point is that Goldman Sachs doesn't take the forecasting seriously enough to make a forecast which is mathematically consistent. Stocks having a lot of unexpected positive and negative spikes moves the chance of underperforming Treasuries closer to 50%; it could only be 72% if there were very little uncertainty in the stock returns.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by retireIn2020 »

I predict that the market will have its ups and downs. I'll re-balance when necessary to keep my asset allocation.

If you think they mean a steady and constant 3% return over a decade, well, you are mistaken. If you think Goldman knows the future, then you're on your own.
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Normchad
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Normchad »

They don’t know squat.

Who was predicting. 20% for 2024 back in January?

I also don’t know squat. But at last I know that I don’t know. Don’t try to do anything with made up predictions, that you know are meaningless.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by watchnerd »

retireIn2020 wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:36 pm I predict that the market will have its ups and downs. I'll re-balance when necessary to keep my asset allocation.

If you think they mean a steady and constant 3% return over a decade, well, you are mistaken. If you think Goldman knows the future, then you're on your own.
I don't think anyone reasonable would expect a steady and constant 3% from stocks.

They're not fixed income.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by carminered2019 »

build a big portfolio with a SWR of 2% or less will solve that problem.
retireIn2020
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by retireIn2020 »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:02 pm
retireIn2020 wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:36 pm I predict that the market will have its ups and downs. I'll re-balance when necessary to keep my asset allocation.

If you think they mean a steady and constant 3% return over a decade, well, you are mistaken. If you think Goldman knows the future, then you're on your own.
I don't think anyone reasonable would expect a steady and constant 3% from stocks.

They're not fixed income.
Exactly my point, and you did say "reasonable", which is relative.
The OP stated
Goldman Sachs have predict that u.s stock will be around 3% annually for the next decade.
Which appears, and some might think 3% (oh my god, I have to get out of stocks).
What one has to understand is the S&P 500 could be +20% one year and -20% the next. IMO, ideal times to rebalance along the way over that decade.

Isn't this the purpose of having an asset allocation that reflects our risk tolerance?
Last edited by retireIn2020 on Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Thesaints »

Dsc8 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:50 pm Hey guys,

Goldman Sachs have predict that u.s stock will be around 3% annually for the next decade.
u.s stock on average will be around 3% annually for the next decade
It makes a huge difference...
Point
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Point »

Harmanic wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 1:00 pm Just to add, while I am awaiting the parts I need to fix my time machine, here is a good read from the White Coat Investor.

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/optim ... s-finance/
Great thought- good way to end the day!
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by EddyB »

tesuzuki2002 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 3:50 pm
Once reality sets in the market drops 40% in the coming year... The reset that most all are anticipating....
So how have “most all” acted on this anticipation?
sc9182
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by sc9182 »

Sometimes the story is in what is NOT told!?

What would then: 11th and 12th, 13th year performances be?:
38%, 29% and 34% respectively!?
Visitor76
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Re: Goldman Sachs predicts 3%

Post by Visitor76 »

*Sighs* I take these predictions with a grain of salt. Having said that, looking back over the last 80 years of market data, there appears to be a pattern of two decades of market growth followed by a lost decade. Following WWII we had two decades of growth (50s and 60s) followed by a lost decade (70s), then followed by two decades of growth (80s and 90s), then follow by another lost decade (2000s). So far we have had growth in the market since 2009. So I suspect we may see another lost decade in the 2030s.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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