Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

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LaurenRose
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Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by LaurenRose »

For background, I was a very young and inexperienced investor during the dot.com era. I made a ton of money and promptly watched it fade away in short order.

Of course, I learned a few things from the experience.

Over the past month or so, I've been engaged in home projects with the financial media channels playing in the background.....every day or so, someone on these channels, proclaims AI as the dawning of a new era, a change to overcome all previous changes with untold riches lying just ahead.

I remember hearing this....in the late 90s up to 2000 +, so I feel like I've seen this movie before.

More recently, in the first year of the pandemic, even some posters here were proclaiming things were "different this time" and some pulled all their investments out of equities. We see now how all of that worked out.

So, my question is this - is it ever really "different this time"?

Can AI bring anything more - from a financial perspective - than the internet did when it was in its growth era?
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rockstar »

Companies being pumped actually make money. NVDA had a great quarter.
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TimeIsYourFriend
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by TimeIsYourFriend »

Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rob »

Same but different.... Most of the "AI" stuff is nonsense.... Most is better algorithms due to more processing power as a lot of the techniques have been around a long time. A lot of teams in my world are wasting vast time on this for questionable internal political purposes.

Some uses will stick and find purpose but most is a vast waste of time and dollars..... What that means to investing, who knows.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by hammockhiker »

rob wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Same but different...[snip]...What that means to investing, who knows.
Thoroughly agree. The AI hype reminds me of the run-up to the dot-com bubble as well. I'm going to do the same thing I did then - nothing. And by nothing, I mean nothing changes and I stay invested in the low cost broad market funds I'm in now. Cheers.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Elysium »

LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm For background, I was a very young and inexperienced investor during the dot.com era. I made a ton of money and promptly watched it fade away in short order.
I was young too and have similar experience, and like most people who dug deeper and deeper (until you woke up the Balrog, a nod to Tolkien), had a net loss.
LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm I remember hearing this....in the late 90s up to 2000 +, so I feel like I've seen this movie before.
Yup, it's that movie plot, but different too, as many have chimed in another thread.
LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm More recently, in the first year of the pandemic, even some posters here were proclaiming things were "different this time" and some pulled all their investments out of equities. We see now how all of that worked out.
Yup. We saw that movie too. It was supposed to be zombie apocalypse according to some, but that died quickly.
LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm So, my question is this - is it ever really "different this time"?
Not different at all, just variations of same plot.
LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm Can AI bring anything more - from a financial perspective - than the internet did when it was in its growth era?
Now we get to the meat of the thread. Yes, AI can bring in lot of value, although as someone who is in computing since the early 90's I feel like I have seen it many times. The promise was there even back then, never quite got it, but now with GPUs, CharGPT, OpenAI, we do have some path to realization of the promise. Although I have to say the analysts are way too exuberant. We will get to some of the real value in automating many lower level tasks that still needs human intervention and thus increasing productivity overall. However, it will be like the same as promise of dot com, not everything that is promised will happen and to the same scale as expected, it will take time and there will be some winners. The winner of dot com was Amazon, and may be a handful of others, but they were all losers until at least a decade after original promise. Same thing to be expected here. Today's so called winners likely won't be future winners, and the unknown bookseller that became Amazon, who knows what is the AI equal to that.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by TheDogFather »

I think a rational investor can look at a number of tech companies today and make a solid argument that they are very overvalued unless the most extreme growth targets are met, but still, with billions in revenues and profits there’s at least something there.

At the height of the dot.com real tech companies were stupidly overvalued but many of their customers had no business model, and so real companies were very severely impacted when all the nonsense ones evaporated.

CSCO, for example, crashed hard but because it was a huge player and the industry standard it has provided long term returns.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Yarlonkol12 »

Right now AI is a term used to influence stock prices and sell GPUs, not sure what the future holds but we will see
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Tamalak »

AI has high expectations right now and could easily disappoint them. But I don't think this compares to the dot com bubble. There was an astonishing (in hindsight) amount of magical thinking then. That the internet would somehow suspend the basic laws of economics. That we would get everything for free because our personal data is so valuable. That companies with no net positive earnings and no plans to ever have them were viable just because they had a website.

When it comes to AI, investors are constantly questioning what use cases AI has and how much new earnings they could drive. They could be wrong, but they're actually putting in a college try this time instead of treating the technology like it's magic.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rockstar »

Another thing to consider is that since January 2020, the market is only gaining about 12% annualized a year. That doesn’t feel like a bubble to me.
Last edited by rockstar on Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
investorpeter
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by investorpeter »

The dot.com era did change the world. If AI can change the world as much as the internet did, then it will be a big deal.

There will be great amounts of money lost and made either way.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by firebirdparts »

The “money” comes from meeting human needs in a highly productive way. The money is imaginary but what is real is the bartering of our productivity for meeting human needs.

People sometimes get this idea that there is going to exponential [something] but we often see products these days where everybody on earth pretty much is a customer already.

For example, I had a long career mining data. You have to have a use for it. If I have unlimited AI, can I exponentially increase sales of a global commodity? No. Can I exponentially reduce cost? No. Can I somehow exponentially increase what other people will barter with me? Only up to the point where everybody has what I offer.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rockstar »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:01 pm The “money” comes from meeting human needs in a highly productive way. The money is imaginary but what is real is the bartering of our productivity for meeting human needs.

People sometimes get this idea that there is going to exponential [something] but we often see products these days where everybody on earth pretty much is a customer already.

For example, I had a long career mining data. You have to have a use for it. If I have unlimited AI, can I exponentially increase sales of a global commodity? No. Can I exponentially reduce cost? No. Can I somehow exponentially increase what other people will barter with me? Only up to the point where everybody has what I offer.
Have you built models? They take a long time to run. The better chipsets increase the turn around time. But it’s really boring waiting for them to finish. I remember not that long ago running models overnight and hoping they didn’t crash.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by flyingcows »

TheDogFather wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:44 pm I think a rational investor can look at a number of tech companies today and make a solid argument that they are very overvalued unless the most extreme growth targets are met, but still, with billions in revenues and profits there’s at least something there.

At the height of the dot.com real tech companies were stupidly overvalued but many of their customers had no business model, and so real companies were very severely impacted when all the nonsense ones evaporated.

CSCO, for example, crashed hard but because it was a huge player and the industry standard it has provided long term returns.
Cisco reached a peak in March 2000 with a market cap of 390B, 24 years later it's market cap is 190B. I guess considering dividends one still probably came out ahead if they held this entire time. Could have done much worse too considering pets.com or webvan
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by cableguy »

Like most great innovations...we'll over estimate the short term impacts....and under estimate the long term impacts...
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by firebirdparts »

If the main task of AI is to put people out of work, then the benefit is that those people will find new work to do and they'll do it for you. That's the big revolution. Somebody who was pretending to be a software engineer will be cleaning my gutters. That's the kind of real result as opposed to the "limitless everything" mentality. Human needs, human productive, that's it. Resources are actually free. You can't pay the wind and the river and the trees and the sky.
Last edited by firebirdparts on Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by firebirdparts »

rockstar wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:05 pm Have you built models? They take a long time to run. The better chipsets increase the turn around time. But it’s really boring waiting for them to finish. I remember not that long ago running models overnight and hoping they didn’t crash.
yeah, but I was getting paid to, and I enjoyed it, and I could go talk to somebody at the water fountain. Smart people are fun to talk to. If you work 40 years you can build a lot of models.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by bendix »

One might think of irrational exuberance when looking at a couple of stocks, e.g. NVDA or AMD or ARM come to mind, but Iam not sure this is a broader and bigger phenomenon. In the early 2000s all sorts of crazy junk was immediately valued at 50 or 100M USD as long as it had a website and a business plan. I dont see the same level of nonsense this time around. I am not sure I would continue to buy into the frenzy, though. Havent added to my QQQ position for a while now...
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rockstar »

bendix wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:15 pm One might think of irrational exuberance when looking at a couple of stocks, e.g. NVDA or AMD or ARM come to mind, but Iam not sure this is a broader and bigger phenomenon. In the early 2000s all sorts of crazy junk was immediately valued at 50 or 100M USD as long as it had a website and a business plan. I dont see the same level of nonsense this time around. I am not sure I would continue to buy into the frenzy, though. Havent added to my QQQ position for a while now...
I bought some QQQ this morning. I’m still approximately a third in it. If individual positions in it get too high, the index will rebalance itself. Not too worried about it. This isn’t the crazy dotcom days, where most of its positions were nuts. Now, it’s about a handful with real earnings.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by spacemanspif »

Can AI bring anything more - from a financial perspective - than the internet did when it was in its growth era?
I have absolutely no idea. That is why I love the approach of just buying the index and letting the market sort it out over the long term. As to your question, how many people had a similar question when Apple rolled out their first iPhone? I'm sure someone said, "what is the fuss about? It still just makes phone calls - how are they going to make money off this thing?" Amazon was just another bookstore, Microsoft just was a fancy way to type letters and calculate numbers, Novo Nordisk just another insulin company, and so on. I guess my point is, it is hard to spot a transformational change in the beginning.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

I remember a dumb idea I heard back in the 90s. Tech folks were going to create a much smaller handheld device that combined TV, computer, radio and phone (awkward!), that you could bring with you anywhere, even get a call on top of a mountain.

Absurd! Who would want something like that? /s
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by ClassII »

I think this AI thing might go somewhere but just like the Internet revolution I'm more excited for what it'll do to all industries rather than trying to pick winners and losers.

For instance I just read that McDonalds is trialing AI for drive thru ordering. Pretty small potatoes (pun) application but hey, if they can eliminate that one position in the store or redeploy that employee to the kitchen for faster service, just imagine what that could do across a company that size, let alone other drive thru businesses.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rockstar »

ClassII wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:26 pm I think this AI thing might go somewhere but just like the Internet revolution I'm more excited for what it'll do to all industries rather than trying to pick winners and losers.

For instance I just read that McDonalds is trialing AI for drive thru ordering. Pretty small potatoes (pun) application but hey, if they can eliminate that one position in the store or redeploy that employee to the kitchen for faster service, just imagine what that could do across a company that size, let alone other drive thru businesses.
Some of this stuff will fail terribly like self checkout. If deployed in the wrong areas, shrink goes through the roof at the cost of an employee barely making more than minimum wage. Doesn’t make sense to throw lots of money to save pennies.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by yolointopants »

LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm For background, I was a very young and inexperienced investor during the dot.com era. I made a ton of money and promptly watched it fade away in short order.

Of course, I learned a few things from the experience.

Over the past month or so, I've been engaged in home projects with the financial media channels playing in the background.....every day or so, someone on these channels, proclaims AI as the dawning of a new era, a change to overcome all previous changes with untold riches lying just ahead.

I remember hearing this....in the late 90s up to 2000 +, so I feel like I've seen this movie before.

More recently, in the first year of the pandemic, even some posters here were proclaiming things were "different this time" and some pulled all their investments out of equities. We see now how all of that worked out.

So, my question is this - is it ever really "different this time"?

Can AI bring anything more - from a financial perspective - than the internet did when it was in its growth era?
The trash boom lasted for years. We're only just beginning. With all this fomo money, the "next nvidia," the "next openai," is all just looking for some spac money to immolate so the smells of incinerated capital can please the markets.

Here's what I don't understand:

Why are utilities so beat down? Those chips don't power themselves. They need 24-7 power. Renewable isn't going to hack it.

As much as I throw up in my mouth looking at the AI hype, I have to remind myself it could be years until this fades. Perhaps inflation will reignite, the fed will take the gloves off and actually be willing to lop off an economic limb to stop the poison.

This too shall pass.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Parkinglotracer »

as others have mentioned NVDA has a PE in 30's unlike Cisco that had a Huge PE in the dot com era. One can debate whether NVDA's business will continue but you can't debate its money making ability now. its margins are in the 70% range .

incredible what Jason has accomplished.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Parkinglotracer »

yolointopants wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:50 pm
LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm For background, I was a very young and inexperienced investor during the dot.com era. I made a ton of money and promptly watched it fade away in short order.

Of course, I learned a few things from the experience.

Over the past month or so, I've been engaged in home projects with the financial media channels playing in the background.....every day or so, someone on these channels, proclaims AI as the dawning of a new era, a change to overcome all previous changes with untold riches lying just ahead.

I remember hearing this....in the late 90s up to 2000 +, so I feel like I've seen this movie before.

More recently, in the first year of the pandemic, even some posters here were proclaiming things were "different this time" and some pulled all their investments out of equities. We see now how all of that worked out.

So, my question is this - is it ever really "different this time"?

Can AI bring anything more - from a financial perspective - than the internet did when it was in its growth era?
The trash boom lasted for years. We're only just beginning. With all this fomo money, the "next nvidia," the "next openai," is all just looking for some spac money to immolate so the smells of incinerated capital can please the markets.

Here's what I don't understand:

Why are utilities so beat down? Those chips don't power themselves. They need 24-7 power. Renewable isn't going to hack it.

As much as I throw up in my mouth looking at the AI hype, I have to remind myself it could be years until this fades. Perhaps inflation will reignite, the fed will take the gloves off and actually be willing to lop off an economic limb to stop the poison.

This too shall pass.
as I understand the markets utilities are often bought for income / dividends ... as interest rates rise utilities are not as in favor as folks have other alternatives such as CDs and treasuries.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by watchnerd »

It's all priced in.

Including the idea that AI may be overhyped -- that's also priced in.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Random Musings »

There are solid companies out there with great cash flows - perhaps a little bit overvalued.

However, some of those hyped stocks have very unreasonable multiples.

RM
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Nathan Drake »

rockstar wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:18 pm Companies being pumped actually make money. NVDA had a great quarter.
So did Cisco, and continued to do so far two decades

Too bad about the price being paid
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rockstar »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:22 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:18 pm Companies being pumped actually make money. NVDA had a great quarter.
So did Cisco, and continued to do so far two decades

Too bad about the price being paid
What valuations make you worry? If NVDA went to zero, it wouldn’t have a meaningful impact for either QQQ or VOO. You’d still be diversified. So you need a lot of valuations to bother you. What are they?
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Nathan Drake »

rockstar wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:34 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 4:22 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:18 pm Companies being pumped actually make money. NVDA had a great quarter.
So did Cisco, and continued to do so far two decades

Too bad about the price being paid
What valuations make you worry? If NVDA went to zero, it wouldn’t have a meaningful impact for either QQQ or VOO. You’d still be diversified. So you need a lot of valuations to bother you. What are they?
You don’t need valuations as high as NVIDIA to expect lower returns

Dot com peaked at around 44. We are around 34 today
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by yolointopants »

Parkinglotracer wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:57 pm
as I understand the markets utilities are often bought for income / dividends ... as interest rates rise utilities are not as in favor as folks have other alternatives such as CDs and treasuries.
I don't think the baseload demand is priced in. Picks and shovels of the AI boom. Decades to bring a nuclear reactor online. 2009 - 2023 for Unit 3 at the Vogtle Plant in Georgia. Yeah yeah, nobody knows, you can't pick winners. I know. But I still think about it.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by jebmke »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:26 pm I remember a dumb idea I heard back in the 90s. Tech folks were going to create a much smaller handheld device that combined TV, computer, radio and phone (awkward!), that you could bring with you anywhere, even get a call on top of a mountain.

Absurd! Who would want something like that? /s
Didn’t Nik Tesla predict this in the 1920s?
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

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TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
I couldn't disagree with this more.
I am not, and will not tilt my portfolio toward AI, and if I ever did it would be in health care, but the world we live in 30 years from now will be fundamentally different than the world we live in today. Maybe that is just the scientist in me talking, but we are on the cusp (10 years or so) of opening a Pandora's box of change. But, I'm also the guy who argues that the telegraph had a bigger impact on humanity than did anything else since the industrial revolution.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Turkey Lurkey »

The hard part back then and now is that you can’t know what will turn out to be a really good idea/application/company/stock until afterwards. Much safer to own the market.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by thatbrian »

LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm For background, I was a very young and inexperienced investor during the dot.com era. I made a ton of money and promptly watched it fade away in short order.

Of course, I learned a few things from the experience.

Over the past month or so, I've been engaged in home projects with the financial media channels playing in the background.....every day or so, someone on these channels, proclaims AI as the dawning of a new era, a change to overcome all previous changes with untold riches lying just ahead.

I remember hearing this....in the late 90s up to 2000 +, so I feel like I've seen this movie before.

More recently, in the first year of the pandemic, even some posters here were proclaiming things were "different this time" and some pulled all their investments out of equities. We see now how all of that worked out.

So, my question is this - is it ever really "different this time"?

Can AI bring anything more - from a financial perspective - than the internet did when it was in its growth era?
AI is going to explode with twice the force Dot Com did.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by TimeIsYourFriend »

physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:05 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
I couldn't disagree with this more.
I am not, and will not tilt my portfolio toward AI, and if I ever did it would be in health care, but the world we live in 30 years from now will be fundamentally different than the world we live in today. Maybe that is just the scientist in me talking, but we are on the cusp (10 years or so) of opening a Pandora's box of change. But, I'm also the guy who argues that the telegraph had a bigger impact on humanity than did anything else since the industrial revolution.
Compare being able to communicate with someone on the other side of the world at the speed of light when previously, the only way you could do that was to travel very long distances over weeks by horse, train and then a long, risky boat ride across the sea. That (telegraph/phone) was a massive leap. The internet may be more complex but it is not nearly on the same level. AI is just an extension of current technology.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by physics911 »

TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:22 pm
physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:05 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
I couldn't disagree with this more.
I am not, and will not tilt my portfolio toward AI, and if I ever did it would be in health care, but the world we live in 30 years from now will be fundamentally different than the world we live in today. Maybe that is just the scientist in me talking, but we are on the cusp (10 years or so) of opening a Pandora's box of change. But, I'm also the guy who argues that the telegraph had a bigger impact on humanity than did anything else since the industrial revolution.
Compare being able to communicate with someone on the other side of the world at the speed of light when previously, the only way you could do that was to travel very long distances over weeks by horse, train and then a long, risky boat ride across the sea. That (telegraph/phone) was a massive leap. The internet may be more complex but it is not nearly on the same level. AI is just an extension of current technology.
Politely and respectfully disagree again. When my nieces and nephew are my age there will be congressional debates on "what is life?" and "should we give ChatGPT an SSN?" We are talking about the potential birth of a new lifeform which supplants humans as the most intelligent species on the planet. Humans have been the smartest creature on the planet for quite a while, that is fixin' to change quick, fast, and in a hurry. I'm not proposing Terminator (movie) situation, but the Turin test will be a distant memory 10 years from now.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by RetiredAL »

In the dot-com boom years, many companies had not yet made a profit, yet had a sky-high valuations. Others had no product yet had big valuations due to the hype. Today AI seems to mostly centered around chip manufacturers who are making a profit. Are their valuations hyper-inflated balloons? Time will tell.

Me? I plan on remaining a steady-Eddie. In 2000, I was a fence straddler. One side did OK, the other got the ankle chewed on.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by RickBoglehead »

Wow. Just wow.

I saw I, Robot. VIKI is dead meat. :wink:
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by RickBoglehead »

RetiredAL wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:00 pm In the dot-com boom years, many companies had not yet made a profit, yet had a sky-high valuations. Others had no product yet had big valuations due to the hype. Today AI seems to mostly centered around chip manufacturers who are making a profit. Are their valuations hyper-inflated balloons? Time will tell.

Me? I plan on remaining a steady-Eddie. In 2000, I was a fence straddler. One side did OK, the other got the ankle chewed on.

Nearly all dot com companies were losing a fortune. They did not have "profit" in their vocabulary. Investors, including myself, were stupid. I could have retired earlier. My ankle, and my leg, got eaten.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by rockstar »

physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:39 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:22 pm
physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:05 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
I couldn't disagree with this more.
I am not, and will not tilt my portfolio toward AI, and if I ever did it would be in health care, but the world we live in 30 years from now will be fundamentally different than the world we live in today. Maybe that is just the scientist in me talking, but we are on the cusp (10 years or so) of opening a Pandora's box of change. But, I'm also the guy who argues that the telegraph had a bigger impact on humanity than did anything else since the industrial revolution.
Compare being able to communicate with someone on the other side of the world at the speed of light when previously, the only way you could do that was to travel very long distances over weeks by horse, train and then a long, risky boat ride across the sea. That (telegraph/phone) was a massive leap. The internet may be more complex but it is not nearly on the same level. AI is just an extension of current technology.
Politely and respectfully disagree again. When my nieces and nephew are my age there will be congressional debates on "what is life?" and "should we give ChatGPT an SSN?" We are talking about the potential birth of a new lifeform which supplants humans as the most intelligent species on the planet. Humans have been the smartest creature on the planet for quite a while, that is fixin' to change quick, fast, and in a hurry. I'm not proposing Terminator (movie) situation, but the Turin test will be a distant memory 10 years from now.
We're talking about neural networks that are computationally expensive to run and train. And we're talking about very few vendors that produce the hardware to do this efficiently. And then we're still talking about time.

If you check out Kaggle, there are vision based models. These take a very long time to train, but there are medical applications mainly in radiology.

Generative AI stuff is really a web search killer. It's going to reduce the amount time people spend looking for stuff on the Internet and help them accomplish simple programming tasks. It should help train people up faster.

I don't know much about the AI art and music stuff. But it looks interesting.

All of this stuff is still really new and time consuming and computationally expensive. But the innovation here is moving fast.

Right now, I'd say that search engines are most at risk in the near short term as folks switch from using Google search to using a generative AI instead. But this could take a decade or more before it's widely adapted as replacement. The free generative AIs are already using out dated information. While tech move fast, adaptation is always slower than I expect.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by TimeIsYourFriend »

physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:39 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:22 pm
physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:05 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
I couldn't disagree with this more.
I am not, and will not tilt my portfolio toward AI, and if I ever did it would be in health care, but the world we live in 30 years from now will be fundamentally different than the world we live in today. Maybe that is just the scientist in me talking, but we are on the cusp (10 years or so) of opening a Pandora's box of change. But, I'm also the guy who argues that the telegraph had a bigger impact on humanity than did anything else since the industrial revolution.
Compare being able to communicate with someone on the other side of the world at the speed of light when previously, the only way you could do that was to travel very long distances over weeks by horse, train and then a long, risky boat ride across the sea. That (telegraph/phone) was a massive leap. The internet may be more complex but it is not nearly on the same level. AI is just an extension of current technology.
Politely and respectfully disagree again. When my nieces and nephew are my age there will be congressional debates on "what is life?" and "should we give ChatGPT an SSN?" We are talking about the potential birth of a new lifeform which supplants humans as the most intelligent species on the planet. Humans have been the smartest creature on the planet for quite a while, that is fixin' to change quick, fast, and in a hurry. I'm not proposing Terminator (movie) situation, but the Turin test will be a distant memory 10 years from now.
It’s not a leap that you can compare if it hasn’t actually happened. It’s not a given and the current AI gives the illusion of some kind of independent thinking but there’s nothing to indicate that a new “lifeform” is a decade a way. You only have to look at our past ability to predict the path of new technology to know that we often get it way wrong and usually future reality is much more mundane (flying cars anyone?). Fun to imagine though. Cheers. :sharebeer :sharebeer
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by PRMECP »

Parkinglotracer wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:54 pm as others have mentioned NVDA has a PE in 30's unlike Cisco that had a Huge PE in the dot com era. One can debate whether NVDA's business will continue but you can't debate its money making ability now. its margins are in the 70% range .

incredible what Jason has accomplished.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by Parkinglotracer »

PRMECP wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:24 pm
Parkinglotracer wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:54 pm as others have mentioned NVDA has a PE in 30's unlike Cisco that had a Huge PE in the dot com era. One can debate whether NVDA's business will continue but you can't debate its money making ability now. its margins are in the 70% range .

incredible what Jason has accomplished.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by firebirdparts »

jebmke wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:54 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:26 pm I remember a dumb idea I heard back in the 90s. Tech folks were going to create a much smaller handheld device that combined TV, computer, radio and phone (awkward!), that you could bring with you anywhere, even get a call on top of a mountain.

Absurd! Who would want something like that? /s
Didn’t Nik Tesla predict this in the 1920s?
I thought it was Dick Tracy.

I am glad, I must say, that TV's have turned out like they have. That's real progress. I kinda chuckled when they said "hooray I can watch a movie on the telephone"
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by RetiredAL »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:53 pm
jebmke wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:54 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:26 pm I remember a dumb idea I heard back in the 90s. Tech folks were going to create a much smaller handheld device that combined TV, computer, radio and phone (awkward!), that you could bring with you anywhere, even get a call on top of a mountain.

Absurd! Who would want something like that? /s
Didn’t Nik Tesla predict this in the 1920s?
I thought it was Dick Tracy.

I am glad, I must say, that TV's have turned out like they have. That's real progress. I kinda chuckled when they said "hooray I can watch a movie on the telephone"
I remember the strip where the man is getting run over by a steam roller, the satellite takes a picture of the event, send it to the newspaper, who sends it out to a screen the man is holding, watching himself getting run over. It was in a DT comic book. Circa early 60's.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by shess »

LaurenRose wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:09 pm So, my question is this - is it ever really "different this time"?
No. When you hear the media drumbeat on a topic, then you can be absolutely certain that you either already missed the boat, or the boat isn't at the dock, yet. Either way, you are going to get the short end of the stick. This is down to "Amara's law", which states: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." The hype cycle runs way ahead of the plodding work to implement things.

The dotcom hype took YEARS to build, there was sure a lot of interesting stuff happening building through the 90's, but it went rather quickly from nobody paying any attention at all to it to EVERYONE paying attention to it for unwarranted reasons. But keep in mind ... the FAANG companies pretty much all did their thing AFTER the dotcom boom. The dotcom bust dropped Amazon's stock by like 90%, to around 4x the IPO price (now it's 500x above that post-dotcom low). There was a week in there where Apple lost 75% of its value (I know because my spouse had ESPP and NQ holdings, sigh). Google was founded in 1998, but was lucky they were able to stay under the dotcom radar and not get destroyed by the bubble. Netflix was still a private company shipping DVDs in red mailers. And a lot of the FAANG company's incredible progress is because the dotcom bust bankrupted companies, freeing up dark fiber and engineers to be applied to relevant problems rather than stupid problems. Many huge companies were destroyed to make the fertilizer the FAANG companies thrive in.

Likewise, I rather suspect that we'll chart a jagged course to figure out the AI winners. Much of the media coverage of AI is on things which ignore the fundamentals. Take designer drugs, we already have designer drug candidates, but we can't do anything with them because it is so incredibly hard to verify safety - AI makes it easier to create them, but doesn't do anything at all to make evaluating safety easier. Or medical diagnosis, we already have a problem where insurers simply refuse to pay for treatments doctors recommend, having more recommendations won't change that at all. We have a ton of problems which stem from having too many people driving too much, making it easier to drive more and further will just make those problems worse. Online "news" contains far too much dreck cranked out by ill-qualified "journalists" who can't even be bothered to check their facts - AI writing articles and generating sidebar images doesn't improve the situation, it just adds more noise, but the system was already overrun by noise. Is Netflix really worse if it has 20,000 movies you don't want to watch instead of 4,000 of them?

As with the dotcom bust, we'll pick the AI winners after the fact, rather than beforehand. Many of the winners will be companies nobody ever heard of, and many of the companies which seem like obvious beneficiaries will go bankrupt or eventually be acquired by Verizon (for some reason).
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by MH2 »

TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
Completely, completely disagree.

AI is at the same stage as IT was in the late 70s. The promise is there. Economically viable use cases are there. It’s just a matter of iteratively refining the technology and bringing it to market.

The societal impact of AI is going to be far larger than the internet, and I say that without downplaying the impact that the internet had (which is far larger than most people realize, especially when you travel outside of the west).

The only issue is whether there’s a viable way to scale the underlying hardware.
Last edited by MH2 on Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Post by MH2 »

TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:51 pm
physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:39 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:22 pm
physics911 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:05 pm
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:25 pm Every technological revolution seems like a less revolutionary leap than the last, so, no, unlikely that AI will outshine what the internet did for the world.
I couldn't disagree with this more.
I am not, and will not tilt my portfolio toward AI, and if I ever did it would be in health care, but the world we live in 30 years from now will be fundamentally different than the world we live in today. Maybe that is just the scientist in me talking, but we are on the cusp (10 years or so) of opening a Pandora's box of change. But, I'm also the guy who argues that the telegraph had a bigger impact on humanity than did anything else since the industrial revolution.
Compare being able to communicate with someone on the other side of the world at the speed of light when previously, the only way you could do that was to travel very long distances over weeks by horse, train and then a long, risky boat ride across the sea. That (telegraph/phone) was a massive leap. The internet may be more complex but it is not nearly on the same level. AI is just an extension of current technology.
Politely and respectfully disagree again. When my nieces and nephew are my age there will be congressional debates on "what is life?" and "should we give ChatGPT an SSN?" We are talking about the potential birth of a new lifeform which supplants humans as the most intelligent species on the planet. Humans have been the smartest creature on the planet for quite a while, that is fixin' to change quick, fast, and in a hurry. I'm not proposing Terminator (movie) situation, but the Turin test will be a distant memory 10 years from now.
It’s not a leap that you can compare if it hasn’t actually happened. It’s not a given and the current AI gives the illusion of some kind of independent thinking but there’s nothing to indicate that a new “lifeform” is a decade a way. You only have to look at our past ability to predict the path of new technology to know that we often get it way wrong and usually future reality is much more mundane (flying cars anyone?). Fun to imagine though. Cheers. :sharebeer :sharebeer
It’s not a matter of whether AGI becomes a thing. As long as the underlying ‘stuff’ can be packaged together into something that moves and interacts with the physical world, effectively, without requiring network access, the implications are going to be massive.
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