NVDA earnings end of month

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
Topic Author
thermo86
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:40 pm

NVDA earnings end of month

Post by thermo86 »

To state the obvious, what has happened with NVDA is incredible. Is there any way NVDA comes out the other side of earnings not over-valued? Such a unique situation with zero competition [presently] due to CUDA. I am honestly confused on this one, and I will tell you why. I see AI as I saw the internet's infancy. When we had it, but we were not sure what to do with it, or how to do it.

Thoughts and in general, your take on NVDA?

** Disclaimer, I am not looking for investing advice on NVDA. This is nothing more than discussing an interesting topic "around the campfire" if you will. I apologize in advance if this is not allowed as it is not actionable? Not sure if that is mandatory on all the forums.
Last edited by thermo86 on Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 14916
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:22 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

i own it in the total world stock market index fund.

if you're asking if you should invest in it, well the best time to have invested in it was before everyone already did.

How would you have felt if you bought it 11/19/21 at $329.85 (highest price it reached since public in 1999) and then it went down to $112.27 on 10/14/2022?

looks great after it's already gone up. doesn't look great when it goes down, does it?

lost about 2/3rds of it's value in 2022. Did the market? Nope. Not even close.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
bg5
Posts: 560
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:07 am

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by bg5 »

I made a killing on this stock. But as previous poster mentioned it was brutal watching my money evaporate when it hit the low 100s not that long ago

I rode it up to 500… when it dropped to 456 I took my money and ran 😎

Now it’s run up to 720 in two months and I could have made an absolute killing had I held.

I personally would not buy at these levels but it’s a total momentum play. I would not be shocked if it tanks to 250 and i wouldn’t be shocked if it goes to 1100

My gut tells me it will tank sooner or later…. It’s tsla 2.0 and the Tesla hype is over. AI is the big play no

The problem is when NVDA crashes so will the s and p. Nvda is totally driving this market along with AI hype

I would not be shocked at a 20% correction in s and p 500


I got most my money in VTI now and the rest in VUG. If you want to buy NVDA just wait because it will have a big correction at some point.
pasadena
Posts: 2331
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:23 am
Location: PNW

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by pasadena »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:07 pm i own it in the total world stock market index fund.

if you're asking if you should invest in it, well the best time to have invested in it was before everyone already did.

How would you have felt if you bought it 11/19/21 at $329.85 (highest price it reached since public in 1999) and then it went down to $112.27 on 10/14/2022?

looks great after it's already gone up. doesn't look great when it goes down, does it?

lost about 2/3rds of it's value in 2022. Did the market? Nope. Not even close.
Ah, I kinda did that. I had a small position, bought more in the $300s in 2021. Then I watched it (and my other "fun stocks", especially TSLA) dive. I did not sell. I did not mind, since the whole market was down anyway. And my position is still small (25 shares). I was going to take some profits at $700 but somehow my order didn't go through (my fault). So not I'm still riding it and guessing I might just regret it. But... oh well, that's the game. Right now I regret not acting on my impulse to buy more when it was just above $100.

As for OP's post, I firmly believe AI is here to stay. The buzz will die down eventually, but AI won't go anywhere. Whether or not NVDA (and MSFT) keep spearheading -and profiting from- the thing is up in the air. I think NVDA is solid, it's a good company and is well run. They have a great vision and execute it well. But that doesn't mean it will last forever.
User avatar
Nathan Drake
Posts: 6107
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by Nathan Drake »

Once BigTech stops the massive CapEx purchases and has "enough" chips, demand will collapse and so will the share price. Bubble.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
DonIce
Posts: 1447
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:44 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by DonIce »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:18 pm Once BigTech stops the massive CapEx purchases and has "enough" chips, demand will collapse and so will the share price. Bubble.
When will that be?

OpenAI wants to raise and spend $5-7 trillion on chips.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman- ... i-89ab3db0

Sounds like people think they'll need to spend a lot of "chips". Computing hardware is probably one of the safest investments... everything runs on it these days: phones, laptops, cars, appliances, lights, buildings, factories, planes, green energy, finance, internet, satellites, whatever else. Of course there are many companies to invest in the space not just nVidia, but "chips" aren't going out of style any time soon.
Last edited by DonIce on Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Nathan Drake
Posts: 6107
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by Nathan Drake »

DonIce wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:30 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:18 pm Once BigTech stops the massive CapEx purchases and has "enough" chips, demand will collapse and so will the share price. Bubble.
When will that be?

OpenAI wants to raise and spend $5-7 trillion on chips.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman- ... i-89ab3db0

Sounds like people think they'll need to spend a lot of "chips".
Don't know. That's the thing. It could easily go far higher for a period of time. But this space is highly cyclical boom/bust. And this is the biggest boom we've seen.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
02nz
Posts: 10415
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:17 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by 02nz »

thermo86 wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:03 pm Thoughts and in general, your take on NVDA?
My thoughts are that there are tons of pros on Wall Street who know more about it than you or I ever will. I'm not going to trade against them and am happy to hold it in index funds. You do what you want with your money. :happy
DonIce
Posts: 1447
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:44 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by DonIce »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:32 pm Don't know. That's the thing. It could easily go far higher for a period of time. But this space is highly cyclical boom/bust. And this is the biggest boom we've seen.
Sure but a 50% bust after another 3x runup, as a random example, still leaves the share price higher than it is today. Today's prices could still be cheap when viewed 10 or 20 years from now; just as we all hope today's record first time ever >5000 close of the S&P500 will also seem cheap 10 or 20 years from now.

I wouldn't recommend a big investment in a single stock; boglehead philosophy is sound on the matter of the benefits of diversification, but it's not obvious that we are in a bubble when it comes to chips in general or nVidia in particular.
Topic Author
thermo86
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:40 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by thermo86 »

02nz wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:33 pm
thermo86 wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:03 pm Thoughts and in general, your take on NVDA?
My thoughts are that there are tons of pros on Wall Street who know more about it than you or I ever will. I'm not going to trade against them and am happy to hold it in index funds. You do what you want with your money. :happy
Read the disclaimer.
rossington
Posts: 1779
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:00 am
Location: Florida

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by rossington »

thermo86 wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:03 pm To state the obvious, what has happened with NVDA is incredible. Is there any way NVDA comes out the other side of earnings not over-valued? Such a unique situation with zero competition [presently] due to CUDA. I am honestly confused on this one, and I will tell you why. I see AI as I saw the internet's infancy. When we had it, but we were not sure what to do with it, or how to do it.

Thoughts and in general, your take on NVDA?


** Disclaimer, I am not looking for investing advice on NVDA. This is nothing more than discussing an interesting topic "around the campfire" if you will. I apologize in advance if this is not allowed as it is not actionable? Not sure if that is mandatory on all the forums.
Right now just glad its a part of VTSAX.
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.
User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 14916
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:22 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

pasadena wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:11 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:07 pm i own it in the total world stock market index fund.

if you're asking if you should invest in it, well the best time to have invested in it was before everyone already did.

How would you have felt if you bought it 11/19/21 at $329.85 (highest price it reached since public in 1999) and then it went down to $112.27 on 10/14/2022?

looks great after it's already gone up. doesn't look great when it goes down, does it?

lost about 2/3rds of it's value in 2022. Did the market? Nope. Not even close.
Ah, I kinda did that. I had a small position, bought more in the $300s in 2021. Then I watched it (and my other "fun stocks", especially TSLA) dive. I did not sell. I did not mind, since the whole market was down anyway. And my position is still small (25 shares). I was going to take some profits at $700 but somehow my order didn't go through (my fault). So not I'm still riding it and guessing I might just regret it. But... oh well, that's the game. Right now I regret not acting on my impulse to buy more when it was just above $100.

As for OP's post, I firmly believe AI is here to stay. The buzz will die down eventually, but AI won't go anywhere. Whether or not NVDA (and MSFT) keep spearheading -and profiting from- the thing is up in the air. I think NVDA is solid, it's a good company and is well run. They have a great vision and execute it well. But that doesn't mean it will last forever.
see this is what i'm talking about.

even at $721.33 stock price for nvidia, 25 shares x $721.33 is...wait for it...$18,033.25.

yeah i know you said it was a small position, but that's the point. are people who are NOW asking about buying into nvidia going to take big stakes? Probably not. Then what does it matter? If it goes up 10 fold, you have $180,332.50. Is that life changing? And what's the likelihood of it going up 10x?

Nvidia is $1.78 million market cap.

Do you really think it will become worth $17,800,000,000,000? That's $17.8 trillion market cap. Really?
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
Geologist
Posts: 2912
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2009 6:35 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by Geologist »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:14 pm
pasadena wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:11 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:07 pm i own it in the total world stock market index fund.

if you're asking if you should invest in it, well the best time to have invested in it was before everyone already did.

How would you have felt if you bought it 11/19/21 at $329.85 (highest price it reached since public in 1999) and then it went down to $112.27 on 10/14/2022?

looks great after it's already gone up. doesn't look great when it goes down, does it?

lost about 2/3rds of it's value in 2022. Did the market? Nope. Not even close.
Ah, I kinda did that. I had a small position, bought more in the $300s in 2021. Then I watched it (and my other "fun stocks", especially TSLA) dive. I did not sell. I did not mind, since the whole market was down anyway. And my position is still small (25 shares). I was going to take some profits at $700 but somehow my order didn't go through (my fault). So not I'm still riding it and guessing I might just regret it. But... oh well, that's the game. Right now I regret not acting on my impulse to buy more when it was just above $100.

As for OP's post, I firmly believe AI is here to stay. The buzz will die down eventually, but AI won't go anywhere. Whether or not NVDA (and MSFT) keep spearheading -and profiting from- the thing is up in the air. I think NVDA is solid, it's a good company and is well run. They have a great vision and execute it well. But that doesn't mean it will last forever.
see this is what i'm talking about.

even at $721.33 stock price for nvidia, 25 shares x $721.33 is...wait for it...$18,033.25.

yeah i know you said it was a small position, but that's the point. are people who are NOW asking about buying into nvidia going to take big stakes? Probably not. Then what does it matter? If it goes up 10 fold, you have $180,332.50. Is that life changing? And what's the likelihood of it going up 10x?

Nvidia is $1.78 million market cap.

Do you really think it will become worth $17,800,000,000,000? That's $17.8 trillion market cap. Really?
That begins to sound like the predictions some made years ago that if California's population continued to grow at the rate it had then relative to the total US population then in 30 years, California would have 125% of the total US population.
pasadena
Posts: 2331
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:23 am
Location: PNW

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by pasadena »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:14 pm
pasadena wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:11 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:07 pm i own it in the total world stock market index fund.

if you're asking if you should invest in it, well the best time to have invested in it was before everyone already did.

How would you have felt if you bought it 11/19/21 at $329.85 (highest price it reached since public in 1999) and then it went down to $112.27 on 10/14/2022?

looks great after it's already gone up. doesn't look great when it goes down, does it?

lost about 2/3rds of it's value in 2022. Did the market? Nope. Not even close.
Ah, I kinda did that. I had a small position, bought more in the $300s in 2021. Then I watched it (and my other "fun stocks", especially TSLA) dive. I did not sell. I did not mind, since the whole market was down anyway. And my position is still small (25 shares). I was going to take some profits at $700 but somehow my order didn't go through (my fault). So now I'm still riding it and guessing I might just regret it. But... oh well, that's the game. Right now I regret not acting on my impulse to buy more when it was just above $100.

As for OP's post, I firmly believe AI is here to stay. The buzz will die down eventually, but AI won't go anywhere. Whether or not NVDA (and MSFT) keep spearheading -and profiting from- the thing is up in the air. I think NVDA is solid, it's a good company and is well run. They have a great vision and execute it well. But that doesn't mean it will last forever.
see this is what i'm talking about.

even at $721.33 stock price for nvidia, 25 shares x $721.33 is...wait for it...$18,033.25.

yeah i know you said it was a small position, but that's the point. are people who are NOW asking about buying into nvidia going to take big stakes? Probably not. Then what does it matter? If it goes up 10 fold, you have $180,332.50. Is that life changing? And what's the likelihood of it going up 10x?

Nvidia is $1.78 million market cap.

Do you really think it will become worth $17,800,000,000,000? That's $17.8 trillion market cap. Really?
I'm not entirely sure what your point is, relative to my response. Yeah it's a small position because my cost basis is about $5,000, bought over time. I bought some of it at $300 something in 2021, not all of it, and that's basically what I care about. Clearly, it won't be life changing, especially since it's like 1.5% of my investments. It's my fun money. My point was, I bought at the top, watched it fall, and didn't feel much of anything about it.

That said, I certainly won't buy more at $700+ after a 32% run in a month. I really should place that partial sell order again and try not to mess it up, this time.
Last edited by pasadena on Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
muffins14
Posts: 5305
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:14 am
Location: New York

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by muffins14 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:18 pm Once BigTech stops the massive CapEx purchases and has "enough" chips, demand will collapse and so will the share price. Bubble.
I think there will never be enough chips. Demand for computation is going to grow for a long time, in my opinion.

I could absolutely be wrong though.
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
User avatar
Nathan Drake
Posts: 6107
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by Nathan Drake »

muffins14 wrote: Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:51 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:18 pm Once BigTech stops the massive CapEx purchases and has "enough" chips, demand will collapse and so will the share price. Bubble.
I think there will never be enough chips. Demand for computation is going to grow for a long time, in my opinion.

I could absolutely be wrong though.
Like anything there will be a boom/bust. These companies will need to find genuine was of monetizing their investment. If they cannot do that relatively soon, they will scale back. You can have a secular upward trend and still encounter lots of busts along the way. And competitors could eat into NVDA's share as well.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
richard37
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 10:38 am

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by richard37 »

Lucky enough to get in at 160. Use the after tax dollars from my wife’s mega back door Roth IRA every year to pick a stock and last year it whenever it was picked NVDA. Unfortunately it wasn’t more.
BigMoneyGrip
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:13 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by BigMoneyGrip »

Been in since 2015. Sold 1/3 of my position last year at average price of $460 (and paid cap gains taxes). Probably will drop another 1/3 of original position this year. Wondering what to do with hit has been nice problem to have!
Parkinglotracer
Posts: 3814
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:49 am
Location: Upstate NY

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by Parkinglotracer »

Incredible run … as sales have gone thru the roof their margins have increased … trading at about 800 pre market this AM. Wow.
User avatar
A440
Posts: 1208
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:46 am
Location: NJ

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by A440 »

It is the 3rd largest holding of VGT, which I own. At some point it should experience a reversion to the mean.
I don't know what the future holds, but I know who holds my future.
Valuethinker
Posts: 48773
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by Valuethinker »

thermo86 wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:03 pm To state the obvious, what has happened with NVDA is incredible. Is there any way NVDA comes out the other side of earnings not over-valued? Such a unique situation with zero competition [presently] due to CUDA. I am honestly confused on this one, and I will tell you why. I see AI as I saw the internet's infancy. When we had it, but we were not sure what to do with it, or how to do it.

Thoughts and in general, your take on NVDA?

** Disclaimer, I am not looking for investing advice on NVDA. This is nothing more than discussing an interesting topic "around the campfire" if you will. I apologize in advance if this is not allowed as it is not actionable? Not sure if that is mandatory on all the forums.
Threads like these are an interesting marker.

Their widespread appearance tends to call a top. We saw that with c[forbidden]o. We saw that with Tesla.

Put it this way, by the time it gets to the moderately informed punters here, or the naive innocents such as myself, then it's likely a long way along its voyage.

It will come plummeting back to Earth, at some point. However I have no idea whether that is now, or 3x now. I doubt it is 10x now - by the simple logic of market caps.

Interested to know who makes their silicon? TSMC? What alternatives do they have if that relationship sours in some way?
muffins14
Posts: 5305
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:14 am
Location: New York

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by muffins14 »

A440 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:05 am It is the 3rd largest holding of VGT, which I own. At some point it should experience a reversion to the mean.
Do you mean that eventually it should have a set of returns around 7-9% annually?
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
Valuethinker
Posts: 48773
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by Valuethinker »

muffins14 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:31 am
A440 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:05 am It is the 3rd largest holding of VGT, which I own. At some point it should experience a reversion to the mean.
Do you mean that eventually it should have a set of returns around 7-9% annually?
Except with a stock on that PE, that's often not how it gets there. It gets there by missing a couple of quarters, say, and then the PE starts to fall as well as the downgrades from Street forecasts. Called a "torpedo stock": falling PE multiple as well as falling E (earnings). Like an accordion collapsing inwards.

Eventually it gets rated at a stagnation multiple. 15 times PE say.
User avatar
ccf
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:13 pm

Re: NVDA earnings end of month

Post by ccf »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:21 am Threads like these are an interesting marker.
I was just thinking about how interesting it might be to look the cycles of non-Boglehead topics over decades. Other places on the Internet are all noise all the time but here you can really see the fear and greed more clearly.
Post Reply