Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

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wwhan
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Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by wwhan »

It looks like Bob Brinker's newsletter, Market Timer is shutting down this month (June 2023), due to personal reasons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Brinker

Market Timer: http://www.bobbrinker.com/
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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Stinky »

wwhan wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 5:58 pm It looks like Bob Brinker's newsletter, Market Timer is shutting down this month (June 2023), due to personal reasons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Brinker

Market Timer: http://www.bobbrinker.com/
Very interesting. Per Wikipedia, he was born in 1941, so he’s into his 80s, a good time to hang it up.

Where did you see that he’s shutting down the newsletter? I didn’t see that on his website.

His record as a “market timer” was mixed at best. On the one hand, he almost precisely called both the top and the bottom in the early 2000s stock market decline. On the other hand, he totally missed the 2008 stock market debacle.

Brinker introduced me to some Boglehead concepts before there were Bogleheads. He stressed investing in low cost index mutual funds, and “paying yourself first”. His investment advice was generally solid.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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nedsaid
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by nedsaid »

Yes, Louis Rukeyser was my idol as a young investor. Bob Brinker, of MoneyTalk fame was a close second. I religiously listened to his program for years from the mid-1980's through the mid-2000's. Louis Rukeyser passed away and I sort of outgrew Bob Brinker and his radio program. I will say I learned an awful lot from him. I owe him eternal gratitude. He wasn't perfect but was one of the good guys. Really championed no-load mutual funds and do-it-yourself investing and often warned about the sharks who would devour your money. He also helped introduce me to John Bogle, index funds, and Vanguard though I had seen Bogle a few times on Wall $treet Week. So it was Louis Rukeyser, Bob Brinker, and John Bogle; sort of like the Father, The Son, and the Holy Spirit. :wink: A way of saying that I revered them.
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Index Fan
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Index Fan »

Wow, I had no idea it was still going. Enjoy your retirement, Bob.

Yeah, Brinker introduced me to the world of Vanguard's low-cost index funds, and for that I will always be grateful.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Fly Guy »

nedsaid wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:58 pm Yes, Louis Rukeyser was my idol as a young investor. Bob Brinker, of MoneyTalk fame was a close second. I religiously listened to his program for years from the mid-1980's through the mid-2000's. Louis Rukeyser passed away and I sort of outgrew Bob Brinker and his radio program. I will say I learned an awful lot from him. I owe him eternal gratitude. He wasn't perfect but was one of the good guys. Really championed no-load mutual funds and do-it-yourself investing and often warned about the sharks who would devour your money. He also helped introduce me to John Bogle, index funds, and Vanguard though I had seen Bogle a few times on Wall $treet Week. So it was Louis Rukeyser, Bob Brinker, and John Bogle; sort of like the Father, The Son, and the Holy Spirit. :wink: A way of saying that I revered them.
+1 Besides the introduction to Bogle, his radio show really de-mystified personal finance and investing for me, and showed me that you can be your own money manager.

I don't see the announcement up on his website either - where did you hear about it? I figured the day was coming - he dropped the radio show in the late 2010's.
Nver2Late
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Nver2Late »

The June 2023 Marketimer Newsletter did not say anything about ending. I found Bob Brinker on the radio during college and he guided me out of debt to low cost, long term, index fund investing. I'll always be thankful for his advice.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by AlaskaTeach »

Bob's radio show was only broadcast in the DFW area on weekends, and I remember him talking after the fact about the very clear signal to get out of the market in 2000. He used that example in the years following because he would emphasize that was the only time he saw a clear signal to get completely out of the market.

He did simplify investing as paying yourself first and the benefit of dollar-cost averaging, and made the process seem fairly accessible.

He and John Bogle were the gold standard for no-load investing.

Thanks Bob.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by best2u »

I think the greatest thing Mr. Brinker provided was his positive outlook with regards to investing. Always was a glass is half full kind of guy and presented information that supported that. Even when we had the pandemic and everyone was losing their minds he wrote about the progress being made to find vaccines and liquidity the government was providing to restart the economy. I will miss reading his newsletter, and will always be grateful for the advice he provided of which my family has benefitted from. I hope he is still in good health. :sharebeer
Fly Guy
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Fly Guy »

Just opened todays mail, and there was a check in there from the newsletter for the remainder of my subscription, as well as a note saying the June issue of Marketimer will be the last due to personal reasons. I'm wishing Bob the best health, and will be ever thankful for the education that he gave me over the decades.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by 260chrisb »

Fly Guy wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:36 pm
nedsaid wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:58 pm Yes, Louis Rukeyser was my idol as a young investor. Bob Brinker, of MoneyTalk fame was a close second. I religiously listened to his program for years from the mid-1980's through the mid-2000's. Louis Rukeyser passed away and I sort of outgrew Bob Brinker and his radio program. I will say I learned an awful lot from him. I owe him eternal gratitude. He wasn't perfect but was one of the good guys. Really championed no-load mutual funds and do-it-yourself investing and often warned about the sharks who would devour your money. He also helped introduce me to John Bogle, index funds, and Vanguard though I had seen Bogle a few times on Wall $treet Week. So it was Louis Rukeyser, Bob Brinker, and John Bogle; sort of like the Father, The Son, and the Holy Spirit. :wink: A way of saying that I revered them.
+1 Besides the introduction to Bogle, his radio show really de-mystified personal finance and investing for me, and showed me that you can be your own money manager.

I don't see the announcement up on his website either - where did you hear about it? I figured the day was coming - he dropped the radio show in the late 2010's.
+1. Bob was one of the good guys! I enjoyed his radio show and he'll be missed. I wish him the best.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Stinky »

Fly Guy wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:02 pm Just opened todays mail, and there was a check in there from the newsletter for the remainder of my subscription, as well as a note saying the June issue of Marketimer will be the last due to personal reasons. I'm wishing Bob the best health, and will be ever thankful for the education that he gave me over the decades.
Very interesting. Whatever happened, it must have been pretty sudden.

I was a newsletter subscriber for a while, and then dropped it. After I dropped, every once in a while I would get an official-looking “renewal invoice” from Brinker, asking me to come back for the same old rate of $185 per year. I think that I received the most recent “renewal invoice” about 2 or 3 months ago. So he was still soliciting subscribers then.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Retired1809 »

The first time I ever heard Bob Brinker was during an ice storm when we were in a cold house with no electricity and my job was to stay awake and keep a fire going in the fireplace. I remember turning across the AM dial of my portable radio and hearing some guy recommending Treasury Direct and I bonds with a fixed rate of 3% plus the inflation rate! (He immediately won my respect because I knew that nobody was paying him to talk up Treasury Direct.) This was when WBT (the Powerhouse AM station broadcasting from Charlotte NC over the entire east coast) replayed the Sunday afternoon show after midnight. This was the first of many years of listening to Bob recommend low-cost index funds. Bob contributed much to educating investors and savers. His character is above reproach. He was able to establish genuine rapport with his listeners. This was a time of civility in talk radio. Thanks, Bob.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by marco1910 »

I just got a refund of my yearly subscription, which I just paid, and the note said, "Due to personal reasons, the Marketimer Investment Letter is closing. The June 2023 edition was our final edition. Enclosed is a refund for the remaining balance of your subscription. Thank you for your support over the last four decades."

I started listening to Money Talk in the early nineties. Had no clue how to invest. Bob was the one who pointed me in the right direction.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by MN-Investor »

My husband did a lot of traveling for business and enjoyed listening to Bob Brinker when he was driving. One concept my sweetie really liked was Bob Brinker's critical mass. Per Bob Brinker's website -
Critical Mass:

A state of freedom from worry and anxiety about money due to the accumulation of assets which make it possible to live your life as you choose without working if you prefer not to work or just working because you enjoy your work but don't need the income. Plainly stated, the Land of Critical Mass is a place in which individuals enjoy their own personal financial nirvana. Differentiation between earned income and assets is a fundamental lesson to learn when thinking in terms of critical mass. Earned income does not produce critical mass......critical mass is strictly a function of assets.
My husband and I always modified the definition for ourselves as having sufficient funds such that we could live off of our social security + interest + dividends without having to sell investments. My sweetie passed away five years ago. I just turned 70. But we did achieve critical mass.
The key to success - Save early, save often, invest well.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by c.coyle »

Stinky wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:46 pm

Brinker introduced me to some Boglehead concepts before there were Bogleheads. He stressed investing in low cost index mutual funds, and “paying yourself first”. His investment advice was generally solid.
Same here. Listened to him on weekends starting in my early 30s. He's the reason I got into index funds, and why I am now retired comfortably.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Stkfox »

‘The land of critical mass’ and ‘the starship Moneytalk’. Got a lot of encouragement listening to his show.
123
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by 123 »

Stinky wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:46 pm ...Where did you see that he’s shutting down the newsletter? I didn’t see that on his website. ..
Yeah, I couldn't see any reference to him shutting down but the "SUBSCRIBE" functionality is no longer there (as of this moment). I've been looking at his website every few months and the "SUBSCRIBE" feature and free recent copy offers have been there until recently.

I enjoyed listening to him from back in the 1980's through his last broadcast. He got to be a little repetitive when he went to Sundays only. He was a great introduction to Vanguard and simplified investing. I even subscribed to the newsletter for a few years until I found a local membership library that carried it.

Edit to add:

A check with the archive.org indicates the the subscribe and free back issue offers were still available on the website as of June 7, 2023.
https://web.archive.org/web/20230607161 ... inker.com/ So it was a very recent change.

I called the phone number on the website for new subscriptions (303) 660-8686 and (eventually) got a recording that the newsletter was shutting down for personal reasons and that the June 2023 issue would be the last one. They said subscribers would be mailed refunds.
Last edited by 123 on Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by gtrplayer »

I listened to him on the weekends the last few years he was on. His recommendations were very similar to Bogleheads. I always thought the name Market Timer was ironic because he always told people to have buy and hold portfolios but I imagine that wasn’t the case when he picked the name.

I remember his last show was a completely normal show. He brought on a guest in the last segment who made no mention of the fact it was the last show. And then in the last minute, he gave a short thank you and goodbye. If you hadn’t listened to the end, you’d have completely expected the show to come on the following week.

I have to admit, I never got the newsletter and never learned what was in the different portfolios he talked about. I’ve always been curious how they performed. I never hear people talk about the Brinker Portfolio II or III.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Wishing him (and those close to him) well.
Listened to him for years (until he ended his shows), and learned a lot.
He sure knew how to explain low-cost investing to the masses.
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* | FIRE'd July 2023
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Stinky »

gtrplayer wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:02 pm.
I always thought the name Market Timer was ironic because he always told people to have buy and hold portfolios but I imagine that wasn’t the case when he picked the name.
He made explicit market timing calls occasionally in the newsletter.

Looking back at my records - I moved from 100% equity index funds to 100% stable value fund in March 2000, based on Brinker’s market timing call. I moved back into equities in March 2003, once again based on the newsletter’s recommendation.

As I recall it, his “bulletins” announcing his calls were within days of the actual high and low of the market. So he pretty much nailed that particular bear market.

But he didn’t do so well in 2008. He kept buying, especially the Nasdaq 100, as the market went down down down. He didn’t display any market timing skill in that downturn.

I stopped subscribing to the newsletter almost 10 years ago, so I have no idea if he made any market timing moves during the pandemic.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Dick D »

I remember Bob’s comment in a 2007 program when he said the talk about the mortgage defaults was nothing more that a tempest in a tea pot!
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Dick D »

I remember Bob’s comment in a 2007 program when he said the talk about the mortgage defaults was nothing more that a tempest in a tea pot!
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by ClevrChico »

I seem to remember Vanguard advertising on MoneyTalk, which began my adventure with index funds. I think I started with GNMA's, as Bob really liked those at the time. Bob kept me company on many road trips.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Small Law Survivor »

Didn't realize he was still publishing that newsletter. I listened to him a lot back when his radio show was on, and learned a lot from it.
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nedsaid
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by nedsaid »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 8:07 pm
gtrplayer wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:02 pm.
I always thought the name Market Timer was ironic because he always told people to have buy and hold portfolios but I imagine that wasn’t the case when he picked the name.
He made explicit market timing calls occasionally in the newsletter.

Looking back at my records - I moved from 100% equity index funds to 100% stable value fund in March 2000, based on Brinker’s market timing call. I moved back into equities in March 2003, once again based on the newsletter’s recommendation.

As I recall it, his “bulletins” announcing his calls were within days of the actual high and low of the market. So he pretty much nailed that particular bear market.

But he didn’t do so well in 2008. He kept buying, especially the Nasdaq 100, as the market went down down down. He didn’t display any market timing skill in that downturn.

I stopped subscribing to the newsletter almost 10 years ago, so I have no idea if he made any market timing moves during the pandemic.
Bob made an infamous QQQ buy recommendation during the 2000-2002 bear market and it turned out the NASDAQ had further to fall. He advised subscribers to buy QQQ in anticipation of a rebound in the NASDAQ, he made the call on October 16, 2000. Foggy memory recalls that he later admitted on his radio program that he was wrong. That rebound didn't happen until much later.

It goes to show that making market predictions is a perilous business, you look smart if you guess right and dumb if you guess wrong. He had a market timing model that he used in making predictions, I have forgotten the general outlines of it that he discussed on his radio program. I will say that it sounded well thought out based upon what he described. The model was probably pretty good, the issue here is that the markets and the economy are very complex and no model, no matter how good it is, is only a rough approximation of reality.

I did a Google search and found that his model was based upon where we are in the economic cycle, investor sentiment, monetary policy, and valuations. That is consistent with what I remember. It makes perfect sense to me and something like that informs how I view the market for myself.

In my posts, I discuss all four of these elements of Brinker's model as I comment about the markets. I know that my powers of prediction are not very good, whatever observations I make might be 100% correct but market moods or crazy bets made by equally crazy hedge fund managers can cause markets to move in unexpected ways. It is the being right too early problem, sometimes it is being right way too early. It could also be that I either overestimate or underestimate the effect of events and trends upon the markets and the economy. In other words, I could be just plain wrong.

So after the QQQ debacle, I gradually started losing interest, I probably stopped listening altogether probably about 2006 or so. I did learn a tremendous amount from him and for that I am grateful.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Stinky »

nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:48 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 8:07 pm
gtrplayer wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:02 pm.
I always thought the name Market Timer was ironic because he always told people to have buy and hold portfolios but I imagine that wasn’t the case when he picked the name.
He made explicit market timing calls occasionally in the newsletter.

Looking back at my records - I moved from 100% equity index funds to 100% stable value fund in March 2000, based on Brinker’s market timing call. I moved back into equities in March 2003, once again based on the newsletter’s recommendation.

As I recall it, his “bulletins” announcing his calls were within days of the actual high and low of the market. So he pretty much nailed that particular bear market.

But he didn’t do so well in 2008. He kept buying, especially the Nasdaq 100, as the market went down down down. He didn’t display any market timing skill in that downturn.

I stopped subscribing to the newsletter almost 10 years ago, so I have no idea if he made any market timing moves during the pandemic.
Bob made an infamous QQQ buy recommendation during the 2000-2002 bear market and it turned out the NASDAQ had further to fall. He advised subscribers to buy QQQ in anticipation of a rebound in the NASDAQ, he made the call on October 16, 2000. Foggy memory recalls that he later admitted on his radio program that he was wrong. That rebound didn't happen until much later.

It goes to show that making market predictions is a perilous business, you look smart if you guess right and dumb if you guess wrong. He had a market timing model that he used in making predictions, I have forgotten the general outlines of it that he discussed on his radio program. I will say that it sounded well thought out based upon what he described. The model was probably pretty good, the issue here is that the markets and the economy are very complex and no model, no matter how good it is, is only a rough approximation of reality.

I did a Google search and found that his model was based upon where we are in the economic cycle, investor sentiment, monetary policy, and valuations. That is consistent with what I remember. It makes perfect sense to me and something like that informs how I view the market for myself.

In my posts, I discuss all four of these elements of Brinker's model as I comment about the markets. I know that my powers of prediction are not very good, whatever observations I make might be 100% correct but market moods or crazy bets made by equally crazy hedge fund managers can cause markets to move in unexpected ways. It is the being right too early problem, sometimes it is being right way too early. It could also be that I either overestimate or underestimate the effect of events and trends upon the markets and the economy. In other words, I could be just plain wrong.

So after the QQQ debacle, I gradually started losing interest, I probably stopped listening altogether probably about 2006 or so. I did learn a tremendous amount from him and for that I am grateful.
You’re right about the QQQ timing. I got that timing wrong.

I recall now that I couldn’t follow the QQQ recommendation because all of my savings at the time were in the 401k plan that didn’t have such an option. So I avoided that debacle.

Thanks for the clarification.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by tibbitts »

I enjoyed listening to him years ago. I seem to recall he was a big fan of the last of the 6% (12yr guarantee) EE bonds?
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nedsaid
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by nedsaid »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:52 am
nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:48 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 8:07 pm
gtrplayer wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:02 pm.
I always thought the name Market Timer was ironic because he always told people to have buy and hold portfolios but I imagine that wasn’t the case when he picked the name.
He made explicit market timing calls occasionally in the newsletter.

Looking back at my records - I moved from 100% equity index funds to 100% stable value fund in March 2000, based on Brinker’s market timing call. I moved back into equities in March 2003, once again based on the newsletter’s recommendation.

As I recall it, his “bulletins” announcing his calls were within days of the actual high and low of the market. So he pretty much nailed that particular bear market.

But he didn’t do so well in 2008. He kept buying, especially the Nasdaq 100, as the market went down down down. He didn’t display any market timing skill in that downturn.

I stopped subscribing to the newsletter almost 10 years ago, so I have no idea if he made any market timing moves during the pandemic.
Bob made an infamous QQQ buy recommendation during the 2000-2002 bear market and it turned out the NASDAQ had further to fall. He advised subscribers to buy QQQ in anticipation of a rebound in the NASDAQ, he made the call on October 16, 2000. Foggy memory recalls that he later admitted on his radio program that he was wrong. That rebound didn't happen until much later.

It goes to show that making market predictions is a perilous business, you look smart if you guess right and dumb if you guess wrong. He had a market timing model that he used in making predictions, I have forgotten the general outlines of it that he discussed on his radio program. I will say that it sounded well thought out based upon what he described. The model was probably pretty good, the issue here is that the markets and the economy are very complex and no model, no matter how good it is, is only a rough approximation of reality.

I did a Google search and found that his model was based upon where we are in the economic cycle, investor sentiment, monetary policy, and valuations. That is consistent with what I remember. It makes perfect sense to me and something like that informs how I view the market for myself.

In my posts, I discuss all four of these elements of Brinker's model as I comment about the markets. I know that my powers of prediction are not very good, whatever observations I make might be 100% correct but market moods or crazy bets made by equally crazy hedge fund managers can cause markets to move in unexpected ways. It is the being right too early problem, sometimes it is being right way too early. It could also be that I either overestimate or underestimate the effect of events and trends upon the markets and the economy. In other words, I could be just plain wrong.

So after the QQQ debacle, I gradually started losing interest, I probably stopped listening altogether probably about 2006 or so. I did learn a tremendous amount from him and for that I am grateful.
You’re right about the QQQ timing. I got that timing wrong.

Thanks for the clarification.
I had to look it up. I knew the QQQ call was made during the 2000-2002 bear market but I didn't remember the time. My gosh, this was over 22 years ago. Also had to look up the four elements of Bob Brinker's timing model. I actually use those four elements in my own posts, I suppose I have internalized this and refer to it subconsciously without even thinking about it. So my post was a way of saying two things, I had to look things up to refresh my memory and Bob Brinker was very influential to my thinking. Whenever I post about the state of the market, I am using Brinker's framework. He undoubtedly was influenced by someone else.

His bear market call did have an impact on me. He sounded increasingly bearish through 1999 and made his call of taking 60% of a stock allocation to cash in early 2020. At the time, my retirement was about 94% in stocks, half of my stocks were individually held stocks and the other half were in mutual funds. I left my individual stocks intact and took 30% or so of my stock mutual funds to cash. So this move took my stock allocation down to 80%. I did this just before the tech crash.

I was also starting to learn more about portfolio theory and asset allocation. Though Bob Brinker influenced me to take
some stocks to cash, this decision was made within a broader context. I also had recently taken a new job with a big Healthcare System, I put my new monies into my 403(b) plan at a ratio of 60% cash and 40% bonds. The idea was to work my stock allocation down to 60% over time. Never reached that goal, 23 years later at age 63, I still am at 63% stock allocation. The other thing I did was reduce the commitment to individual stocks, that went downwards from 47% in early 2000 down to 13% today. Again, I kept learning about diversification, asset allocation, and managing risk.
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by nedsaid »

tibbitts wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 12:02 pm I enjoyed listening to him years ago. I seem to recall he was a big fan of the last of the 6% (12yr guarantee) EE bonds?
Also a big fan of Treasury Direct and I-Bonds when they came out.
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nedsaid
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by nedsaid »

This brings me to yet another point. Learn from people like John Bogle, Bill Bernstein, Burton Malkiel, Bob Brinker. Learn from them and perhaps even admire them but don't turn them into an idol to be blindly followed and fawned over. Even the best of them are human and subject to human faults, frailties, and error.

So when Brinker issued his "sell" recommendation on the US and International stock markets, I didn't take 60% of my stocks to cash, I took about 15% to cash. As stated upthread, my reasons for this move went beyond Bob Brinker's recommendation, it was made within a wider context. As they say, I was born to be mild.

I would hope that people who read my posts would take lessons from them and learn. I would not want anyone to just blindly copy whatever portfolio moves that I am making. I could be wrong. Or what I am doing could be right for me but wrong for others, it depends upon the individual's situation. Worse yet, if someone organized a Nedsaid fan club, though the odds of that are pretty small. I have often said that I am a back bencher in the House of Commons. Probably will not be selected to be on the cabinet. Cynics would say for very good reason.
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truenorth418
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by truenorth418 »

I haven’t thought of Bob Brinker for many years.

But from the mid-90s to the early 10s he was one of the most important influences of my life. I listened to his show every weekend, or the podcast versions posted afterwards, for many years. I also subscribed to the newsletter for a while.

His “Land of Critical Mass” concept was one of the most important inspirations for me to live below my means, save a considerable portion of my earnings, so I could retire young.

He turned me onto iBonds way before they were popular, when an individual could buy $60k worth per year, and I did that and today inflation is raging but my ibond allocation is substantial and that’s thanks to Bob Brinker.

Bob’s retirement withdrawal strategy was simple. 4% fixed percentage withdrawal. How to get there? 50/50 allocation. Take the interest from your bond allocation and the dividends from your stock allocation - which would generally total a little more than 3%. Fill in the rest of the 4% by selling a little bit of your stocks (or bonds, rebalancing to 50/50). Gets you to 4% to spend. And if you can live comfortably on that then you have arrived in the “Land of Critical Mass” and you never have to work again (unless you want to, he would always add). Is the the best withdraws strategy? Maybe not but it’s a great place to start and it inspired me and for that I will be grateful to Bob Brinker for the rest of my happily early retired days.

Thank you Bob and God bless you.
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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Stinky »

nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 12:24 pm
So when Brinker issued his "sell" recommendation on the US and International stock markets, I didn't take 60% of my stocks to cash, I took about 15% to cash. As stated upthread, my reasons for this move went beyond Bob Brinker's recommendation, it was made within a wider context. As they say, I was born to be mild.
You say you were born to be mild. I guess (at that time) I was born to be WILD.

When Brinker said sell 60% in 2000, you sold 15%. However, I sold 100%. My thought at the time was “If there’s going to be a downturn, why have any equities at all?”

In retrospect, I made a lucky call. The S&P went from over 1500 to just over 800 while I was out of the market. Then Brinker rang the bell again and I got back in - with 100% equities.

Given my greater investment maturity and Boglehead knowledge, I would never do the same thing again. I now recognize that market timing is a fools errand. I got lucky twice - selling at the top and buying at the bottom.

That being said, I’m thankful for all of the good investing practices mentioned upthread that I learned from Brinker.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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nedsaid
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by nedsaid »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 1:30 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 12:24 pm
So when Brinker issued his "sell" recommendation on the US and International stock markets, I didn't take 60% of my stocks to cash, I took about 15% to cash. As stated upthread, my reasons for this move went beyond Bob Brinker's recommendation, it was made within a wider context. As they say, I was born to be mild.
You say you were born to be mild. I guess (at that time) I was born to be WILD.

When Brinker said sell 60% in 2000, you sold 15%. However, I sold 100%. My thought at the time was “If there’s going to be a downturn, why have any equities at all?”

In retrospect, I made a lucky call. The S&P went from over 1500 to just over 800 while I was out of the market. Then Brinker rang the bell again and I got back in - with 100% equities.

Given my greater investment maturity and Boglehead knowledge, I would never do the same thing again. I now recognize that market timing is a fools errand. I got lucky twice - selling at the top and buying at the bottom.

That being said, I’m thankful for all of the good investing practices mentioned upthread that I learned from Brinker.
When markets are great, I am brilliant. When markets are bad, I wonder what the heck I was thinking. Similarly, when I time things right, it is due to my charm, good looks, and utter brilliance. When I time things wrong, I am looking for the knucklehead who gave me the idea. Can't tell you how many times I have gone from genius to idiot to back again. So yes, there is an element of luck to this. Better to be lucky than good, or so they say.
A fool and his money are good for business.
JohnnyK
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by JohnnyK »

The October 2022 call in the Marketimer was perfect. So, subscribers have been rewarded by continuing to get the newsletter.
Sending good thoughts to the family from our very grateful family, now successfully in retirement.
I have to believe many, many, many others feel the same. Thanks for this platform to discuss this development.
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Electron
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Electron »

I listened to Moneytalk many times over the years. My best memories are driving home from my weekly hikes in the local mountains and listening to the program on the way home. The questions from listeners were always very interesting along with Bob's commentary.

I have seen copies of the newsletter but was not a subscriber. There was also the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor published by Bob Brinker Jr.

Several others mentioned Wall Street Week which I also enjoyed. I was recently reminded of the Elves Index which was eventually retired after years of poor performance. The program should have stayed with the original Technical Market Index from Bob Nurock which actually had a pretty good record.
Enjoying the Outdoors
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wwhan
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by wwhan »

I used to listen to Bob Brinker on the radio Saturday and Sunday, starting in around 1997. It opened the door for me to Vanguard & John Bogle's philosophy. I found the newsletter let me relax about the market. It helped me stay the path with buy and hold.
NYHawkeye
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by NYHawkeye »

Listened to Bob for decades, learned a lot, and got introduced to many great concepts. Throughout those decades I maintained a spreadsheet with my financial plan named CriticalMass.xls. Made a huge difference in my financial life.
AS7911
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by AS7911 »

For those that remember, he didn't announce his radio show ending in advance, but waited until the final hour of the last episode... so I wouldn't read anything into the lack of advance notice for the newsletter ending.

I listened regularly from about 1989 until the end, and learned a lot of helpful info early in my investment life.

Unfortunately I thought in his later years he was arrogant and condescending at times.
samgauto
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by samgauto »

I received the same note in the mail today with a refund check. Sad to know that the newsletter is ending.

In my younger years on road trips with my siblings my father would tune the dial to hear Bruce Williams on Talk Net and then later Bob Brinker. Even years after my dad passed I still listened intently until Bob's last show.

Always loved to board the Starship MoneyTalk! One of Bob's many sayings that always stuck with me was ... "We've got the best government money can buy".
Here's to hoping Bob is ok any many thanks for all the investing advice along the way!
rossde
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by rossde »

I was a listener throughout the 90s and 2000s. Yes, he could be short and not respectful but I learned so much and it stays with me now that I am in my 60s.
Specific Stock Risk- no more than 4% in any one stock - didnt always follow it but used it as a guardrail
the concept of a secular bull market vs a cyclical bull market.
no load mutual funds
the land of critical mass.
dont keep credit card debt.
watch out for shark attacks.
the power of long term investing.

He mastered this medium and taught a generation of us that we could do this on our own. We didnt have to pay advisers and money managers. I will always be grateful. In his honor, I will invest the 92.50 newsletter refund in a 529 account.
MC in SD
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by MC in SD »

I have followed the Starship MoneyTalk and been a subscriber to his Marketimer for decades and have done well. I found his program Spring 93 and became a devout listener both Sat and Sun for many years. I had the pleasure to speak with him just once in the three decades of my listening to his program in 98 where he provided sage counsel. I further enjoyed the rare off topic commentaries . . . his new movie recommendations gave relief to the rather typically dry topic, money. I recall his artful commentaries, rarely on the ineptness of government and politics [Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]. He called the new millennium "sell" right on the money and the post GFC "buy" on March 9, 2009 to the minute. More recently he called the September 30, 2022 low market "attractive for purchase" on spot. He evolved with the parameters he used to analyze the economy. I recall in the 90's it seemed to me he put a lot more emphasis on a very high percentage of bears being a strong bullish indicator. In the past ten years focused more on LEI, CEI as indicators. I have found his letter as a terrific summary of all the noise one hears on the financial channels and each month enjoyed studying his numbers and forecasts. In the early 90's one of his main sponsors in KC was The Mutual Fund Education Alliance. They were based near where I was living then, in North KC. MFEA provided pamphlets of all the NL funds which i found very helpful. I'll greatly miss receiving his monthly insights I have enjoyed for decades. I am grateful Bob continued his good work well into his senior years, helping all of his many appreciative subscribers.

So, as Bob would say: "Volume 38, issue No. 5 - That's All She Wrote" ! Bob has all my very best wishes.
Pravoslav
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Pravoslav »

I listened to Bob's radio show for many years, and have been a Marketimer subscriber for many years also. I reached the Land of Critical Mass in my early fifties and retired at 55. Always following Bob's advice.

So where can we turn now for similar reliable advice? What newsletters or web sites or info sources can replace Marketimer?
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by LadyGeek »

As a reminder, this is a "No politics" forum. I removed some off-topic comments. See: Non-actionable or Trolling Topics
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
  • Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
  • Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
  • Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed legislation are prohibited.
  • Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
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bob60014
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by bob60014 »

The fact that subscribers are getting a note AND with a refund check has got to say something about the guy! Didn't agree with everything he said but was interesting to listen to back in the day.
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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Stinky »

Pravoslav wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:56 am I listened to Bob's radio show for many years, and have been a Marketimer subscriber for many years also. I reached the Land of Critical Mass in my early fifties and retired at 55. Always following Bob's advice.

So where can we turn now for similar reliable advice? What newsletters or web sites or info sources can replace Marketimer?
MC in SD wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:37 pm I have followed the Starship MoneyTalk and been a subscriber to his Marketimer for decades and have done well. I found his program Spring 93 and became a devout listener both Sat and Sun for many years. I had the pleasure to speak with him just once in the three decades of my listening to his program in 98 where he provided sage counsel. I further enjoyed the rare off topic commentaries . . . his new movie recommendations gave relief to the rather typically dry topic, money. I recall his artful commentaries, rarely on the ineptness of government and politics [Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]. He called the new millennium "sell" right on the money and the post GFC "buy" on March 9, 2009 to the minute. More recently he called the September 30, 2022 low market "attractive for purchase" on spot. He evolved with the parameters he used to analyze the economy. I recall in the 90's it seemed to me he put a lot more emphasis on a very high percentage of bears being a strong bullish indicator. In the past ten years focused more on LEI, CEI as indicators. I have found his letter as a terrific summary of all the noise one hears on the financial channels and each month enjoyed studying his numbers and forecasts. In the early 90's one of his main sponsors in KC was The Mutual Fund Education Alliance. They were based near where I was living then, in North KC. MFEA provided pamphlets of all the NL funds which i found very helpful. I'll greatly miss receiving his monthly insights I have enjoyed for decades. I am grateful Bob continued his good work well into his senior years, helping all of his many appreciative subscribers.

So, as Bob would say: "Volume 38, issue No. 5 - That's All She Wrote" ! Bob has all my very best wishes.
Welcome to the Forum to both of you!

If you liked listening to Bob Brinker, it's likely that you'll be aligned with much of the investment thinking on this Forum. Please continue to read and post here, as I think that you'll find a lot of like-minded people.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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JoMoney
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by JoMoney »

"Katy bar the door!"
Bob Brinker's Money Talk radio show was my introduction to Vanguard the importance of low-cost funds, and Mr. Bogle and his books.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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LatentStoic
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by LatentStoic »

JoMoney wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 8:21 am "Katy bar the door!"
Bob Brinker's Money Talk radio show was my introduction to Vanguard the importance of low-cost funds, and Mr. Bogle and his books.
I think it was Jane Bryant Quinn Newsweek columns in the early 90's that first got me oriented in that direction, then by the mid-90s I had the message reinforced by the likes of Jonathan Clements, and yes Bob "Katy Bar the Door" Brinker. :sharebeer
Bogleheads Retirement Class of 2020 at age 55, with Vanguard since 1992. Paraphrasing Rick Ferri, I was “born in darkness, found indexing enlightenment, overcomplicated everything, embraced simplicity.”
CriticalMass2019
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by CriticalMass2019 »

I will forever be grateful to Bob Brinker for the wisdom and common sense he shared over the years both in his newsletter and his former radio show.

I began to improve my investment knowledge largely after hearing Bob's radio show in the early 90’s. He inspired me to learn more and to plan more effectively for “critical mass”. I learned about dollar cost averaging, no load mutual funds, Jack Bogle, the index fund and much more. As a result, my wife and I were able to retire on our own terms in 2019 at the age of 59. I am certain none of this would have been possible without the knowledge Bob shared over the past 30+ years.

I sent a thank you note to Mr. Brinker at the billing address for the newsletter. I hope it reaches him. I wish the best to him and his family.
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Jungle
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Jungle »

Used to listen to Bob's show every Sunday afternoon. Talk radio was about all I had to pass the time while working at a gas station during college, lol
65% US Stock, 7% MCV, 6% SCV, 22% Int Stock
Kimchi2
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Re: Bob Brinker's newsletter Market Timer is shutting down

Post by Kimchi2 »

Brinker encouraged various wealth-making habits & modes of thinking that were not widely discussed elsewhere. Listeners could tell that he loved radio broadcasting. His presentation was sometimes a bit corny, sometimes caustic, but always well-meaning and very helpful. If not for his guidance, I'd still be working.
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