Art Cashin: Why Stocks Will Rally This Week

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Gekko
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Art Cashin: Why Stocks Will Rally This Week

Post by Gekko » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:50 am

this guy's predictive ability is just uncanny!

Art Cashin: Why Stocks Will Rally This Week

Published: Wednesday, 1 Jul 2009 | 10:58 AM ET

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31682385

chaz
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Post by chaz » Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:20 am

He has a good crystal ball.
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Ricola
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Post by Ricola » Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:38 am

He's doing real well so far, currently the Dow is down 177 first thing this morning. :)

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dave.d
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Post by dave.d » Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:50 pm

Yes, but I enjoyed his remark that hoped to have a fifth on the 4th. :wink:
Value-based allocation.

allsop
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Post by allsop » Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:36 pm

Since last autumn as foreign stock markets decrease there is a matching weakening of the Swedish Krona :shock:

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Art Cashin: Why Stocks Will Rally This Week

Post by YDNAL » Thu Jul 02, 2009 2:25 pm

"There's usually a slight [upside] prejudice in the first three trading days of the month. ...There's new money for the new month: pre-funding pensions, things like that."

Plus, "the two days before a 3-day weekend have a historical prejudice to the upside," he added. "Not overly strong — about 60 percent. The shorts get nervous and tend to cover."
My darn computer keeps linking erroneous charts. :)
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chaz
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Post by chaz » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:16 pm

Ricola wrote:He's doing real well so far, currently the Dow is down 177 first thing this morning. :)
Yes - it closed at -215.
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DocHolliday
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Post by DocHolliday » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:51 pm

No worries. He will make another prediction next week and a a 50% chance of getting it right. I wonder if he just flips a coin....

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Post by chaz » Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:17 pm

chaz wrote:
Ricola wrote:He's doing real well so far, currently the Dow is down 177 first thing this morning. :)
Yes - it closed at -215.
Now it looks like -223.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

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Ariel
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Post by Ariel » Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:35 pm

chaz wrote:
chaz wrote:
Ricola wrote:He's doing real well so far, currently the Dow is down 177 first thing this morning. :)
Yes - it closed at -215.
Now it looks like -223.
NYSE was kept open an extra 15 minutes to address unspecified "system irregularities". Hmmm ...
Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994)

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Taylor Larimore
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Stock market forecasting

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Jul 02, 2009 7:19 pm

Art Cashin: "Why Stocks Will Rally This Week"


MSNBC: Stocks end shortened week with big fall

Maybe next week Mr. Cashin will guess right and look like a genus. :roll:
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Post by nisiprius » Thu Jul 02, 2009 7:32 pm

I haven't read it yet. I'm going to look at it now and see if, like any proper financial writer, he left some loophole or escape hatch. Usually there's some wording in it like "we're anticipating gains of X%, assuming of course that Y does not occur which our analysts do not see as likely..."

Yep, here we go:
"The enemy of all this — even the historic perspective — is that trading is so light. Buying and selling power is very, very small. Historic precedent may go out the window."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Post by SP-diceman » Fri Jul 03, 2009 11:41 am

Gee, did he really say : Buy! Buy! Buy!
The market will absolutely close higher.


"There's a slight prejudice"
(based on facts not opinion)
"I'm concerned about the markets"
"(it) may go out the window"
(because of the employment report)

Rather than those who do say buy, buy, buy.
I think he was a breath of fresh air.

I guess if you want to not like market timing with a passion.
You will see whatever you need to from his statements.


Thanks
SP-diceman

mathwhiz
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Post by mathwhiz » Fri Jul 03, 2009 12:11 pm

Art turned very bearish on CNBC right after the jobs report was released on Thursday.

He said it wouldn't surprise him to see unemployment reach 11% next year or even by the end of this year.

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Post by m_j_paquette » Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:41 pm

Ariel wrote: NYSE was kept open an extra 15 minutes to address unspecified "system irregularities". Hmmm ...
Hmmm indeed... "System irregularities" Someone have a slight order imbalance they needed to address?
Mortimer Duke wrote: Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!

Turn those machines back on!

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Gekko
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Post by Gekko » Wed Jul 15, 2009 6:21 pm

Cashin weighed in on the oft-discussed "head-and-shoulders" pattern, taken as gospel by many analysts — but which seems to be disrupted now.

"The trouble with the head and shoulders pattern is it started to get accepted by everybody," Cashin said. "And the market likes to confuse the most amount of people — usually the majority."

The pattern "broke down through the 'neckline,' which by classical, technical thought, should lead to 820, 827. But instead, the market reversed back up through the neckline."

"We have to watch the area around 830 — the right shoulder."

Cashin called this reversal of classical theory a "failed breakdown syndrome" — which, he said, could produce a "super-rally" scenario.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31922179

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Post by ResNullius » Wed Jul 15, 2009 6:48 pm

I saw Cashin today, and he said that he thought the rally likely would fail. He pointed to low volume and short covering. I prefer to use the flip of a coin to decide what will happen with tomorrow's market.

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