2023 Hedge Fund contest

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 2197
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Current Standings - 2023 hedge fund contest

It’s that time of the year again, when the old year’s missteps and blunders are history (and only your investors’ problem at this point), and the New Year offers all the promise in the world for aspiring fund managers to show their skills and try beat the market. So put on your thinking caps this week and show us your favorite picks by next Monday morning.

This is the thread for the 2023 hedge fund contest. The official start of the contest will begin using Monday Jan 9th closing prices, so the hard cutoff for entries is 4pm ET when the market closes next Monday. I suggest trying to make up your mind by next Monday morning and posting earlier so you don’t get busy during the day and forget. For reference, here is the previous year's contest (2022) thread.

Here are the contest guidelines, same format as in previous years.
  • Pick a fancy name for your hedge fund.
  • Before 4:00pm EST on 9 Jan 2023, in this thread, pick up to three stocks to go long and up to three to short. Equal dollar amounts are placed on each position, long or short. Remember this is a stock picking contest, so ETFs and other funds are not allowed.
  • Opening prices will be based on Jan 9th close.
  • No trades during the year, except that you can elect at any time during normal exchange business hours to "freeze" a price for any individual position at that day's closing price, i.e. liquidate any position. (Each position carries this option; you can choose to freeze different positions on different days.) Other than that, you're stuck with what you choose for the year.
  • If a stock is taken out in a merger or a bankruptcy during 2023, we will do our best to do the right thing. An all cash offer will result in a freeze at the takeout price. An all stock offer will result in the conversion of the position to the acquiring company's shares. For mixed cash and stock offers or other more complicated events, you'll just have to trust me to saw things off fairly.
  • The universe from which to choose is the Russell 3000. You should be able find all your stock choices in the list below (up to name changes or similar):
Russell 3000 List - 2022

PLEASE open the above file and search (Control-F) for your tickers to make sure they are eligible stocks. Absent rare name or ticker changes, If they aren't found in that file, they aren't eligible (you can ask me if you’re unsure). If you pick shares not on this list and it's not caught and corrected before the deadline, your portfolio or at least those ineligible choices will be disqualified. Dividends will not be counted.

Like last year, Tanelorn will be providing fixes and commentary as the year goes on. Once we get a spreadsheet prepared, you’ll be able to see that here:

Current Standings - 2023 hedge fund contest
Last edited by Tanelorn on Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:09 am, edited 5 times in total.
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 12032
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante »

Fancy name of hedge fund: Carhölle
Short: CVNA
User avatar
blimp
Posts: 68
Joined: Wed May 29, 2019 3:45 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by blimp »

Hedge fund name: Madoff Bankman-Fried Wealth Management

Long:
SOFI TECHNOLOGIES INC (SOFI)

Short:
HOME DEPOT (HD)
BED BATH BEYOND (BBBY)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Justifications:

The future of banking is online banking, and Sofi has good customer service and marketing. They will eventually become profitable
Home Depot is a good company but the stock has a ridiculous price to book ratio of 249 to 1. The overall economic conditions will limit home improvement projects in 2023.
Bed Bath and Beyond is a pointless company in the digital age and will lose to online retailers and go bankrupt in 2023

-Blimp
finite_difference
Posts: 3332
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by finite_difference »

Classical Mechanics Fund

Short:

TSLA
RIVN
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
trajan08
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat May 20, 2017 6:18 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by trajan08 »

Fancy name: Duey,Cheathem,Howe

Long: LMT, XOM, LLY
Short: TSLA, DIS, PLTR
secondopinion
Posts: 4078
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:18 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by secondopinion »

Value VS. Crypto:

Long: JNJ, BRK.B, PG

Short: HOOD, COIN, RIOT
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
renter
Posts: 457
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:14 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by renter »

Fund: Gimme Capital

Long:
EMBK

Short:
MACK
User avatar
stickman731
Posts: 382
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by stickman731 »

Sticky Wonder Fund

Long:
MVST
ABUS
FOLD

Short:
QS
SLDP
IONQ
Mannarino
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:01 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Mannarino »

MOAR capitol

Long:
BWXT
SMR
WRB
User avatar
dougger5
Posts: 458
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:58 am
Location: Not far from Malvern

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by dougger5 »

Fulfillment Ops Management Organization

Long
WFC
PYPL
RTX

Short
AMC
TSLA
MLAB
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai
User avatar
like2read
Posts: 344
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:30 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by like2read »

Praying Mantis Ventures

Short:
BBBY
LVLU
CURV

Edited to swap BBBY for AKA. In light of the news stories, and the deadline, I couldn't resist. :beer
Last edited by like2read on Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
Rule_of_72t
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:25 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Rule_of_72t »

Balance Sheet Bummers

Short: AMC, CCL, LE
Emeralds
Posts: 29
Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:41 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Emeralds »

Dark Forest

Long
NVDA
GOOGL
User avatar
quantAndHold
Posts: 8165
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:39 pm
Location: West Coast

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by quantAndHold »

Shorts ‘R Us

Short
AMC
BBBY
TSLA
SKA17_PHD
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:24 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by SKA17_PHD »

Lollypop_BUMBUM

Long
NCLH
FLWS
AHT

Short
GME
MNRL
PTEN
avidlearner
Posts: 106
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:51 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by avidlearner »

Hedgers

Long
AMZN
MSFT
XOM

Short
TSLA
AAPL
NVDA
er999
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:00 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by er999 »

The innovation fund

Long:
SPCE
RKLB
JOBY
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 12032
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante »

trajan08 wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:58 pm Fancy name: Duey,Cheathem,Howe
An aristocrat, eh?
gougou
Posts: 1283
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by gougou »

Empire State Fund

Long:
ESRT
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
User avatar
Raraculus
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:43 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Raraculus »

Face Plant Fund

Longs:
ADBE
GNRC
URBN

Shorts:
BYND - I picked this stock last year in the 2022 Hedge Fund Contest. I still think it'll tank even more.
OTLY
ELF
User avatar
AbelArcher
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:19 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by AbelArcher »

Compu-Global-Hyper-Mega-Net Fund

Long:
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY B BRK.B
EQT CORPORATION EQT
SALESFORCE INC CRM

Short:
GAMESTOP CORP GME
MICROSTRATEGY CLASS A MSTR
WAYFAIR W
User avatar
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9596
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Rick Ferri »

Fly Baby Fly 2!

Long MESA
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
todaysBob
Posts: 151
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:39 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by todaysBob »

Fund name - LetMeRetireYouQuick

Long
AFRM - Seem to be discounted enough and one of the better BNPL players
RDFN - Too much real estate decline already priced in IMHO
DOCS - I bought this preIPO and returned 22X, time for it to shine again

Short
SNOW
DDOG
CRWD
impatientInv
Posts: 286
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:26 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by impatientInv »

Hedge fund name: Plug-In Hybrids, NOT EVs

Deleted
Last edited by impatientInv on Sat Jan 07, 2023 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
No individual stocks.
RamblinDoc
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:26 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by RamblinDoc »

Hedge fund name: Dingleberry Holdings :beer

Long:
BRK.B
GS
COST

Short:
AMC
larrydmsn
Posts: 137
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:58 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by larrydmsn »

Same hedge fund as last year: Trust Me with Your Money Fund
Long: MRK ENPH CI
Short: META DISH AMD
User avatar
Metsfan91
Posts: 684
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:33 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Metsfan91 »

Mayberry Holdings :D

Long:
SPCE
RIVN
AMZN


Short:
TSLA
BBBY
COIN
"Know what you own, and know why you own it." — Peter Lynch
User avatar
jimmmy
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:53 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by jimmmy »

Fund Name: ez

Long:
TSLA

Short:
META
Mr.BB
Posts: 2201
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Mr.BB »

Fund Name: Financial Fool
Long: MSFT, AAPL GOOGL

Short: HD, TOL
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 3263
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Beensabu »

Never Gonna Give You Up

Long:

RICK
ROLL
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
b42
Posts: 391
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:00 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by b42 »

Where Are We Going

Short:
GRMN - Garmin Ltd.
Vanguard Fan 1367
Posts: 2137
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:09 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

The Florida Divers Fund



Short: IRDM
John Bogle: "It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand it."
User avatar
Darth Xanadu
Posts: 979
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:47 am
Location: MA

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Darth Xanadu »

Fund Name: Sacred River Alph-a

Short
ACHR
BYND
User avatar
zhiwiller
Posts: 1302
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:47 pm
Location: Upstate NY
Contact:

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by zhiwiller »

Desultory Cyclicals

Long: LUV
Short: DWAC, TSLA, GME
Last edited by zhiwiller on Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
2022fireoops
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:18 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by 2022fireoops »

Fancy name: The Go-Go's

Long: GOEV, GOOD

Short: EVGO, GO
Last edited by 2022fireoops on Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 87729
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek »

Just Dink It

Long: FUBO
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 87729
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek »

The 2023 contest has been added to the wiki: Bogleheads® contests

If there are any new investors who would like to participate but don't understand what to do, here's a quick explanation:
  • Pick up to 3 stocks (none, 1, 2, or 3) you think will be higher at the end of year. This is the "long" selection.
  • Pick up to 3 stocks (none, 1, 2, or 3) you think will be lower at the end of the year. This is the "short" selection.
  • You can pick a single stock (long or short).
  • Pick a fancy name for your fund.
- Real-time performance of the stocks within the Russell 3000 index can be found here: Russell 3000 Index Chart, Components, Prices - Barchart.com Go to the Russell 3000 components section. Select an entry from the drop-down list. Click on the column heading to sort by that heading.

If you select a stock from this site, double-check it against the "official" contest list in the first post of this thread.

- Google "hedge fund name generator" for tips on naming your fund.

- Don't worry about the details. If you get stuck, just pick something. The point is to enter the contest and participate. Then, see how your choices perform over the course of the year.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
AerialWombat
Posts: 2808
Joined: Tue May 29, 2018 1:07 pm
Location: Cashtown, Cashylvania

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by AerialWombat »

Name: Luddite Lake Ventures
Long: SAM, CAG, F
Short: AAPL, TSLA, INTU

--
Commentary: Luddite Lake Ventures continues it's quest to seek returns without technology. After a successful year shorting Tesla in 2022, but missed bets on energy and mortgages, the fund will reconstitute this year with renewed fervor against Big Tech. As the country does the two-step into a recession, we believe that dominant tech brands like Apple are sure to disappoint, while Tesla continues it's long smear streak down the window. Given the sad state of affairs recently with fintech, we believe that entrenched incumbents in that sector, such as Intuit, will also be dragged down into the much. On the flip side, we believe that Americans will continue to enjoy salty snacks, beer, and pickups, no matter what the state of the economy.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
Jags4186
Posts: 7546
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:12 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Jags4186 »

The Inverse Cramer:

Long:
JOBY
LPI
TDOC

Short:
GS
CRM
HON
Tonygis
Posts: 33
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:52 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tonygis »

Fancy name- Revenge of the Tech
Long- AAPL
MSFT
EXPO
swr
Posts: 19
Joined: Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:20 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by swr »

Name: Vegemite

Long:
DKNG Draftkings
GOOGL Google

Short:
RAD Riteaid
User avatar
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9596
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Rick Ferri »

My single MESA stock pick is up 33% so far this year and the contest doesn't begin for another week!

:oops:
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 87729
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek »

You still have time to change it (if the contest manager agrees).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 2197
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

LadyGeek wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:08 am You still have time to change it (if the contest manager agrees).
Yes, feel free to change or edit your post until this coming Monday if you realize a stock isn’t eligible for example, or if you change your mind.
User avatar
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9596
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Rick Ferri »

Tanelorn wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:22 am
LadyGeek wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:08 am You still have time to change it (if the contest manager agrees).
Yes, feel free to change or edit your post until this coming Monday if you realize a stock isn’t eligible for example, or if you change your mind.
MESA was eligible last year when I pick it and finished in next-to-last place. I'm keeping it this year even if it's "unofficially" eligible. :happy

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
bovineplane
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 5:24 am

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by bovineplane »

Prestige Worldwide

Long
Para- paramount
Srpt - Sarepta

Edited to swap iteris for paramount.
Last edited by bovineplane on Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Forester
Posts: 2375
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Forester »

Mediocre Investments

Long
- Newmont Corp NEM
- Novagold Resources NG
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
TagmoreClock
Posts: 53
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:06 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by TagmoreClock »

Clockwork Darts

Long: INTC, WDC, MU

Short: SNOW, NET, ZS
luckyturtle
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:18 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by luckyturtle »

Nemo Submerging Growth Fund

Long: ME, JBT, INBK
Short: MRO, OXY, BA
Last edited by luckyturtle on Wed Jan 04, 2023 4:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
peddler12
Posts: 250
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:01 pm

Re: 2023 Hedge Fund contest

Post by peddler12 »

Gamble Fund

Long
EQT-EQT Corporation
XOM-Exxon Mobile Corporation
O-Reality Income Corp.

Short
PFE-Pfizer
BMY-Bristol-Myers Squib Company
MRK-Merk
Last edited by peddler12 on Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Post Reply