I'm not sure what you would find, but an analysis of the stock market of Great Britain over the last 100, or 150 years would be interesting as a data point. GB was a great economic power that slowly crumbled. Off hand it does not appear that its stock market collapsed along with that power.noobvestor wrote:No, I don't think that is safe to say.Let's just assume for the moment that I'm right - heck, things go wild and the US crumbles slowly while China and Brazil become the dominant economic forces in the world by far. Now, my investing in them might not yield the same returns as living and working there, or investing in their currencies or some other more direct bet, but I think it's safe to say I'll be better off than someone who invested in the US market only, no?
Regardless, getting the timing correct is very important. Even if US goes down and EM goes up, you likely need to time your switch to come out ahead - and it would be easy to mistime this by a decade or more.
Given the historical high risk of EM, I suggest heavy investment in EM is far from a slam dunk.