International right now?

[dropdx]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

[squirrel1963]

No one knows. Put 4 economists in a room and you'll get 5 different opinions.
Given enough forecasts (educated guesses) someone will always be right and will claim to be able to make accurate forecasts.

[Da5id]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

Nobody knows what will happen over the next 2-3 years in stocks. Now or ever. Literally nobody. Learning about the limits of knowledge in investing seems to me to be one of the most valuable lessons one can have. And learning to ask the right questions. Examples:

Good questions:
* how should I allocate my assets to make me more likely to achieve my goals over the long haul?
* how much risk can I tolerate?

Bad questions:
* what will the market do over the next X days/months/years?
* how can I beat the market without taking on more risk?
* is *now* the right time to do <foo>, where <foo> boils down to attempts to market time?

[JoMoney]

I don't think a "say 2-3 years" outlook is ever appropriate for stocks.

[Gort]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

Why are you asking?

[H-Town]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

so you're a tech guy, you should leave the finance thing to the finance dudes. put your savings in 1 fund: Total World Equity Index Fund VTWAX and chill. do what you're great at.. like tech stuff

[dropdx]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

so you're a tech guy, you should leave the finance thing to the finance dudes. put your savings in 1 fund: Total World Equity Index Fund VTWAX and chill. do what you're great at.. like tech stuff

Well, I'm actually deciding if I want to sell all my VFWAX and buy Bitcoin or not... I'm leaning towards... Yes.

[Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek. Discussions are about issues, not people]

[H-Town]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

so you're a tech guy, you should leave the finance thing to the finance dudes. put your savings in 1 fund: Total World Equity Index Fund VTWAX and chill. do what you're great at.. like tech stuff

Well, I'm actually deciding if I want to sell all my VFWAX and buy Bitcoin or not... I'm leaning towards... Yes.

[Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek. Discussions are about issues, not people]

do it

[dropdx]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

so you're a tech guy, you should leave the finance thing to the finance dudes. put your savings in 1 fund: Total World Equity Index Fund VTWAX and chill. do what you're great at.. like tech stuff

Well, I'm actually deciding if I want to sell all my VFWAX and buy Bitcoin or not... I'm leaning towards... Yes.

[Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek. Discussions are about issues, not people]

do it

I need to get some other opinions than Texas!

I already moved all my Roth IRA into MicroStrategy... I got in at $160 when it dropped. It's doing pretty good

viewtopic.php?p=6705396#p6705396

[H-Town]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

so you're a tech guy, you should leave the finance thing to the finance dudes. put your savings in 1 fund: Total World Equity Index Fund VTWAX and chill. do what you're great at.. like tech stuff

Well, I'm actually deciding if I want to sell all my VFWAX and buy Bitcoin or not... I'm leaning towards... Yes.

[Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek. Discussions are about issues, not people]

do it

I need to get some other opinions than Texas!

I already moved all my Roth IRA into MicroStrategy... I got in at $160 when it dropped. It's doing pretty good

viewtopic.php?p=6705396#p6705396

you should've bought calls on HKD/AMTD a few days ago... missed that train?

joking aside, you can safely ignore all of my advice. you'll get a tons of opinions on here (most of them are better than mine).

hopefully they will convert you to a boglehead. or maybe not.

bogleheads buy and hold index funds. we're good at living below our means and accumulating wealth... slowly but surely

[whodidntante]

I think international stocks are a horrifically risky investment for the next 2-3 years and should not be owned by anyone with that investment horizon. I also think American stocks are even worse.

[whodidntante]

joking aside, you can safely ignore all of my advice. you'll get a tons of opinions on here (most of them are better than mine).

Do not be hard on yourself.

Your advice to buy total world stock is far better than the average advice around here.

[dropdx]

so you're a tech guy, you should leave the finance thing to the finance dudes. put your savings in 1 fund: Total World Equity Index Fund VTWAX and chill. do what you're great at.. like tech stuff

Well, I'm actually deciding if I want to sell all my VFWAX and buy Bitcoin or not... I'm leaning towards... Yes.

[Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek. Discussions are about issues, not people]

do it

I need to get some other opinions than Texas!

I already moved all my Roth IRA into MicroStrategy... I got in at $160 when it dropped. It's doing pretty good

viewtopic.php?p=6705396#p6705396

you should've bought calls on HKD/AMTD a few days ago... missed that train?

joking aside, you can safely ignore all of my advice. you'll get a tons of opinions on here (most of them are better than mine).

hopefully they will convert you to a boglehead. or maybe not.

bogleheads buy and hold index funds. we're good at living below our means and accumulating wealth... slowly but surely

I've followed Boglehead philosophy for as long as I've invested... My largest holding is VTSAX, and I max out my 457b, up to match in my 401k, max Roth IRA, max HSA... auto-invest weekly into VTSAX/VFWAX in brokerage, [Discussion of investing in cryptocurrency removed by moderator oldcomputerguy], and have a pension. I currently have 80 US / 20 International, but the International hasn't done anything for YEAARRS and I'm sick of seeing the lame chart. [Discussion of investing in cryptocurrency removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]

But I really do know that no one really knows... It's just fun to get opinions.

[H-Town]

Well, I'm actually deciding if I want to sell all my VFWAX and buy Bitcoin or not... I'm leaning towards... Yes.

[Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek. Discussions are about issues, not people]

do it

I need to get some other opinions than Texas!

I already moved all my Roth IRA into MicroStrategy... I got in at $160 when it dropped. It's doing pretty good

viewtopic.php?p=6705396#p6705396

you should've bought calls on HKD/AMTD a few days ago... missed that train?

joking aside, you can safely ignore all of my advice. you'll get a tons of opinions on here (most of them are better than mine).

hopefully they will convert you to a boglehead. or maybe not.

bogleheads buy and hold index funds. we're good at living below our means and accumulating wealth... slowly but surely

I've followed Boglehead philosophy for as long as I've invested... My largest holding is VTSAX, and I max out my 457b, up to match in my 401k, max Roth IRA, max HSA... auto-invest weekly into VTSAX/VFWAX in brokerage, [Discussion of investing in cryptocurrency removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]. I currently have 80 US / 20 International, but the International hasn't done anything for YEAARRS and I'm sick of seeing the lame chart. [Discussion of investing in cryptocurrency removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]

But I really do know that no one really knows... It's just fun to get opinions.

[Discussion of investing in cryptocurrency removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] But other than that, you're in good shape. You should not worry about your portfolio as everything is set on autopilot. Just focus on your career and making more money. Then put new raise towards your portfolio.

I'd increase more international stocks allocation because that's just me: being greedy when others are afraid. I invest for long term. And 10-20 years from now, I will be glad that I bought international stocks when they were cheap.

[retireIn2020]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

Those identical funds have a CAGR of 5.59 with a max drawdown of 25% over the last 10 years, I always thought "I'm doing good as long as I can get 4-5%" nominal but that's just me, I don't expect much! Who knows what will be? I suppose if you went all in mid 2021 you may be fretting some.

[Nathan Drake]

Another tech guy that wants to dabble in unmentionable “investments” by selling real investments that haven’t performed well recently.

Well, those investments you’re selling haven’t had a 60 % drawdown either. Why are you so antsy to buy a recent huge loser?

[dropdx]

Why are you so antsy to buy a recent huge loser?

Exactly for that very reason...

[Nathan Drake]

Why are you so antsy to buy a recent huge loser?

Exactly for that very reason...

Going to the slot machines and losing 60% of your money at a casino doesn’t mean you are expected to have a higher return going forward

If you care about mean reversion, you should invest in assets that do feature such a characteristic on a fundamental level

[oldcomputerguy]

Several comments mentioning investing in cryptocurrencies were removed. As a reminder, see: Greater Fool Investing Strategies

Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.

[invest4]

I currently have 80 US / 20 International, but the International hasn't done anything for YEAARRS and I'm sick of seeing the lame chart.

Why do you have International in the first place? Has something changed?

But I really do know that no one really knows... It's just fun to get opinions.

I have a different impression.

Nonetheless, my perception is that a number of people seek to invest in whatever happens to be doing well at the time...chasing performance and "buying high and selling low". I invest in International to further diversify my portfolio. I accept the returns International provides. If International happens to outperform at some point in time, I will be satisfied to have been 'buying low' along the way. YMMV.

[markjk]

This question is basically about market timing. The answer is no one knows (which has been a theme in this thread). Find an asset allocation and stick to it. I know you said earlier that it's fun to get opinions, but the truth (again as you already know) is the boring opinions over time tend to be right approach statistically speaking.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I'll bite on your pure opinion question and answer in the context of holding US or ex-US over the short term. For years I've believed in holding a percentage in international and for years now (like 12+) international has been stomped by US. I'm still a believer in reversion to the mean with ex-US so I do think it will all balance out long term. But, you are asking about a relatively short time frame which is 2 - 3 years from now. So, if I were putting money into something right now and I had to choose only US or only ex-US, I'd go US. I don't have great reasoning for this other than global instability at the moment. The instability doesn't seem to be letting up anytime soon so I suspect the run of US outperforming ex-US will continue in the short term.

[Blue456]

So, I don't want this to be the typical - should you hold international or not... What I'm wondering is, how do you think international will do in a very short time frame, say 2-3 years with the current global financial climate?

And I'm talking about a fund like VTIAX or VFWAX, or just international in general, not even finance.

I'm not financially smart enough nor do I read or follow or understand enough to really have any opinion (I'm just a tech guy) but I'm always amazed how many people on here know their stuff. I'll open posts that have 40+ comments and I don't understand 3/4 of them... There's some hardcore finance stuff on here lol

so you're a tech guy, you should leave the finance thing to the finance dudes. put your savings in 1 fund: Total World Equity Index Fund VTWAX and chill. do what you're great at.. like tech stuff

Or target date fund can call it a day.

[Tamalak]

My sincere opinion is that international is going to do great over 2-3 years. Dollar has nowhere to go but down, PEs have nowhere to go but up barring disaster.

Disclaimer: I also thought international was going to do great this year.

[Marseille07]

Disclaimer: I also thought international was going to do great this year.

Have you figured out why it hasn't? Is it all because of the Dollar gaining this year?

You guys love to look at CAPE; by this measure, US went from 40 to 30 whereas Europe went from 24 to 20. US should have been in trouble but doing better than international as of July 31, 2022.

[Tamalak]

Disclaimer: I also thought international was going to do great this year.

Have you figured out why it hasn't? Is it all because of the Dollar gaining this year?

You guys love to look at CAPE; by this measure, US went from 40 to 30 whereas Europe went from 24 to 20. US should have been in trouble but doing better than international as of July 31, 2022.

Dollar gaining and even more forward PE dropping. Adjusting for those factors, international has gained like 15% YTD lol

(forward PE start / forward PE end) * (price end / price start) * (DXY end / DXY start) = underlying international earnings

first market day is Jan 3 so that will be start date. Most recent forward PE report at https://www.yardeni.com/pub/mscipemajor.pdf is July 28 so that will be end date.

(14.5 / 11.8) * (53.00 / 63.98) * (106.35 / 96.21) = 1.13 not counting dividends which would push it to more like 15% YTD..

[nigel_ht]

My sincere opinion is that international is going to do great over 2-3 years. Dollar has nowhere to go but down, PEs have nowhere to go but up barring disaster.

Hmmm...with energy issues I would think the dollar would stay strong against the Euro. The yen and yuan probably are somewhat soft given the trade route disruption around Taiwan.

So of the major international economies EU is facing energy crisis and the Ukraine war, China is still dealing with Covid and now Taiwan, Japan isn't too happy with Chinese missiles splashing into their waters because of Taiwan.

Maybe international does well over the next 2-3 years...but it seems that they are running into some heavy headwinds.

[lostdog]

Buy VTWAX/VT (everything) and move on. Concentrate on your tech career, salary increases and increase your savings rate.

Timing the market doesn't work and moving in and out of different sectors doesn't work. Complete waste of time.

[Marseille07]

Dollar gaining and even more forward PE dropping. Adjusting for those factors, international has gained like 15% YTD lol

(forward PE start / forward PE end) * (price end / price start) * (DXY end / DXY start) = underlying international earnings

first market day is Jan 3 so that will be start date. Most recent forward PE report at https://www.yardeni.com/pub/mscipemajor.pdf is Aug 3 so that will be end date.

(14.5 / 11.8) * (53.02 / 63.98) * (106.51 / 96.21) = 1.13 not counting dividends which would push it to more like 15% YTD..

I don't think we can reasonably adjust for forward PE unless we call today's investors stupid.

First, forward PE is an estimate which might be wildly off. Second, the Ukraine situation is still ongoing and the investors may have reasons not to invest in Europe.

Somehow "adjusting" for forward PE means you are calling them wrong, the implication is that forward PE is not supposed to drop.

[Tamalak]

Dollar gaining and even more forward PE dropping. Adjusting for those factors, international has gained like 15% YTD lol

(forward PE start / forward PE end) * (price end / price start) * (DXY end / DXY start) = underlying international earnings

first market day is Jan 3 so that will be start date. Most recent forward PE report at https://www.yardeni.com/pub/mscipemajor.pdf is Aug 3 so that will be end date.

(14.5 / 11.8) * (53.02 / 63.98) * (106.51 / 96.21) = 1.13 not counting dividends which would push it to more like 15% YTD..

I don't think we can reasonably adjust for forward PE unless we call today's investors stupid.

First, forward PE is an estimate which might be wildly off. Second, the Ukraine situation is still ongoing and the investors may have reasons not to invest in Europe.

Somehow "adjusting" for forward PE means you are calling them wrong, the implication is that forward PE is not supposed to drop.

Sure it is, if the time value of money goes up. And it has this year, by a lot. In that circumstance, it's not surprising that forward PE has dropped by about 20% for both USA and Intl. (22.5 -> 17.5 for USA, 14.5 -> 11.8 for intl)

[Marseille07]

Sure it is, if the time value of money goes up. And it has this year, by a lot. In that circumstance, it's not surprising that forward PE has dropped by about 20% for both USA and Intl. (22.5 -> 17.5 for USA, 14.5 -> 11.8 for intl)

Oh OK, I thought you were calling out forward PE as a factor for ex-US to underperform US, which was my original inquiry.

[Tamalak]

Sure it is, if the time value of money goes up. And it has this year, by a lot. In that circumstance, it's not surprising that forward PE has dropped by about 20% for both USA and Intl. (22.5 -> 17.5 for USA, 14.5 -> 11.8 for intl)

Oh OK, I thought you were calling out forward PE as a factor for ex-US to underperform US, which was my original inquiry.

It's a factor for ex-US to be a poor performer period, not as compared to US.

US, if adjusted for forward PE, has also had a sunny year.

(forward PE start / forward PE end) * (price end / price start)

(22.5 / 17.5) * (203.48 / 242.97) = 1.08 not counting dividends which would push it to more like 9% YTD

[Marseille07]

It's a factor for ex-US to be a poor performer period, not as compared to US.

US, if adjusted for forward PE, has also had a sunny year.

(forward PE start / forward PE end) * (price end / price start)

(22.5 / 17.5) * (203.48 / 242.97) = 1.08 not counting dividends which would push it to more like 9% YTD

Thanks. I still don't like this adjustment personally but your explanation makes sense.

[Tamalak]

It's a factor for ex-US to be a poor performer period, not as compared to US.

US, if adjusted for forward PE, has also had a sunny year.

(forward PE start / forward PE end) * (price end / price start)

(22.5 / 17.5) * (203.48 / 242.97) = 1.08 not counting dividends which would push it to more like 9% YTD

Thanks. I still don't like this adjustment personally but your explanation makes sense.

Most people dislike calculations based on "forward PE" because the name implies a prediction of the future. Forward PE is really a calculation based on present variables (if you think about it, any calculation would have to be). As long as you're comparing apples to apples each year, forward PE doesn't really need to be correct to give a ballpark - and over several years, accurate - estimate of underlying earnings if you adjust for it.

The only factors that go into a stock are market forces (investor sentiment, currency changes, discount rate changes) and underlying growth. One is zero sum and the other is positive sum. Cancel out all the market forces with each other and you get the underlying growth, which is ultimately why we're all invested.

I think current PE would be a better apples to apples comparison than forward PE and I would use it except I can't find any current PE charts as fantastic as Yardeni's forward PE charts.

[dropdx]

Well, I sold my international today to buy the unmentionables, I'll cryptically let you know know how it goes... I think pretty well.

[Nathan Drake]

Well, I sold my international today to buy the unmentionables, I'll cryptically let you know know how it goes... I think pretty well.

This thread should be locked since this was likely nothing more than a thinly veiled cryptroll

[skierincolorado]

Why are you so antsy to buy a recent huge loser?

Exactly for that very reason...

There is no mean reversion if there is no fundamental value.

[LadyGeek]

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