TIPS attractive to you?

[BlueEars]

TIPS yields have gone positive very recently. In November 2018 I bought them at about +1.0%. Today you can buy at 0.54%. Here is the long term chart:





I would be a buyer at +1.0% on the 5 year TIPS. I would buy with my Tbills in IRA and Roth accounts.

What do others think of this? Are TIPS a good fixed income choice in uncertain inflationary times ... or not?

[windaar]

TIPS should be part of one's long term plan, not a reaction to current events. The more we tinker the less we are Bogleheads. I saw the madness unleashed in 2008 and again in 2020, and it's being unleashed again.

[tipswatcher]

TIPS should be part of one's long term plan, not a reaction to current events. The more we tinker the less we are Bogleheads. I saw the madness unleashed in 2008 and again in 2020, and it's being unleashed again.

In general, I'd agree, but once the Federal Reserve began actively entering the Treasury market to influence yields, forcing TIPS real yields deeply negative, it was time to pause buying TIPS. Now that trend is reversing and TIPS are again becoming attractive.

[Logan Roy]

I think there's something quite unique in an asset class that can tell you its real return on purchase. So being able to buy that kind of certainty, when there's nothing but uncertainty around other asset classes (not least nominal bonds and real returns), seems like an excusable case of TAA.

If we acknowledge the path of inflation (and rates) is unknowable, there's no way to know how much more/less attractive TIPS might become. But the assumption governments will want to keep real yields negative, to inflate away debt, suggests TIPS on positive yields may be 'cheap' from a certain perspective. Presumably markets are weighing that against the chance inflation cools quite quickly. So the way I'd put it, if you're buying equities – where sustained high inflation is the catalyst of risk – buying TIPS with them looks attractive. I think buying TIPS in isolation is as much a punt as anything.

[Karamatsu]

What do others think of this? Are TIPS a good fixed income choice in uncertain inflationary times ... or not?

I suppose I view TIPS as the most reliable part of my portfolio. They anchor the fixed-income allocation in the same way that fixed-income anchors the portfolio as a whole. I don't think you can really go too far wrong with the 5Y TIPS because no matter what happens, it's just five years, so in fact I just placed an order for the Thursday auction. If rates go up later, fine. I'll just reinvest the principal when the time comes.

[bridge2benefits]

TIPS yields have gone positive very recently. In November 2018 I bought them at about +1.0%. Today you can buy at 0.54%. Here is the long term chart:





I would be a buyer at +1.0% on the 5 year TIPS. I would buy with my Tbills in IRA and Roth accounts.

What do others think of this? Are TIPS a good fixed income choice in uncertain inflationary times ... or not?

I think TIPS are an excellent fixed income choice, and even more so if you have some future spending needs that you can match to the duration of the TIPS. In my case, I'm building a ladder of duration matched TIPS to cover some of my future expenses during the years between retirement and the start of Social Security benefits.

I invest in TIPS to get a guaranteed real return. I agree that +1.0% real would be very nice, but I'm happy with anything over 0%.

[TheTimeLord]

TIPS yields have gone positive very recently. In November 2018 I bought them at about +1.0%. Today you can buy at 0.54%. Here is the long term chart:





I would be a buyer at +1.0% on the 5 year TIPS. I would buy with my Tbills in IRA and Roth accounts.

What do others think of this? Are TIPS a good fixed income choice in uncertain inflationary times ... or not?

Here is a thread on Thursday's auction.
viewtopic.php?t=380316

[gougou]

No. If I want to buy bonds, I’ll only buy Treasuries in IRAs and Munis in taxable.

[Trance]

I know we keep bonds to have a three fund diversified portfolio, and the total bond fund is great, but is there a lack of diversity by not having inflation protection bonds like tips?

[FreddieFIRE]

Some folks will only buy TIPS. Those that took this approach over the past several years are currently "sitting" in high cotton.

[Logan Roy]

I know we keep bonds to have a three fund diversified portfolio, and the total bond fund is great, but is there a lack of diversity by not having inflation protection bonds like tips?

I think so. When you look at attempts to build a reasonable approximation of a global market portfolio, you often find there's a lot of real estate. The real estate market (afaik) is much bigger than the stock market. And, if you want to include it, there's often a lot more in gold and commodities (then you've got art, collectables, wines, etc.). So the real investable universe tends to have a fair bit in real assets. And what's great about TIPS is they fit neatly in this space between being a real asset and being a financial asset.

Then when Modern Portfolio Theory came along, and early computers, and people could do more with data, you'd tend to find the most efficient portfolios had quite large allocations to real assets. It's the one thing I always said would make the LifeStrategy funds easy one-stop recommendations for me: if they had maybe 15% split between gold and commodities, as a hedge against inflation volatility, or maybe a larger allocation to TIPS.

[Trance]

The real estate market (afaik) is much bigger than the stock market. And, if you want to include it, there's often a lot more in gold and commodities (then you've got art, collectables, wines, etc.). So the real investable universe tends to have a fair bit in real assets. And what's great about TIPS is they fit neatly in this space between being a real asset and being a financial asset.

Wait TIPS aside, I'm new at this but I thought the real estate market would be reflected in the stock market because the real estate companies... are in the market right?

[Logan Roy]

The real estate market (afaik) is much bigger than the stock market. And, if you want to include it, there's often a lot more in gold and commodities (then you've got art, collectables, wines, etc.). So the real investable universe tends to have a fair bit in real assets. And what's great about TIPS is they fit neatly in this space between being a real asset and being a financial asset.

Wait TIPS aside, I'm new at this but I thought the real estate market would be reflected in the stock market because the real estate companies... are in the market right?

Reflected, but probably not proportionally. The global real estate market's worth about $330 trillion, while the stock market's about $93 trillion. But how you draw a line there is a very debatable.

At attempt at a global market portfolio from 1980, where about 50% is in real assets.

[Trance]

Wow thats substantial I had no idea. If a boglehead wanted to expand into real estate and commodities, would he do so with an etf or index fund?

[Robot Monster]

TIPS yields have gone positive very recently. In November 2018 I bought them at about +1.0%. Today you can buy at 0.54%.

To quote another Boglehead:

It doesn't matter when you bought an investment. Every day you are holding it is, in a way, a new decision.

So if today is not the time to buy, it is also not the time to hold.

post link

[rockstar]

It's really a question about duration for me. How long do I think we'll see high inflation persist? So it's not whether or not I should buy TIPS. It's how much duration should I buy since I'm not retired.

[Robot Monster]

Inflation will presumably be brought down from today's levels, but could perhaps settle down higher than the market expects for the long-term, maybe 3% to 4%, as at least one economist predicted:

Mr. Goodhart reasoned that a seismic shift was under way in the world economy, one that fiscal stimulus and the post-pandemic recovery would only hasten. A long glut of inexpensive labor that had kept prices and wages down for decades, he said, was giving way to an era of worker shortages, and hence higher prices.

“The coronavirus pandemic will mark the dividing line between the deflationary forces of the last 30 to 40 years and the resurgent inflation of the next two decades,” said the 85-year-old economist in an interview. He predicted that inflation in advanced economies will settle at 3% to 4% around the end of 2022 and remain at that level for decades, compared with about 1.5% in the decade before the pandemic.

-- from "Will Inflation Stay High for Decades? One Influential Economist Says Yes" WSJ link

[Logan Roy]

Wow thats substantial I had no idea. If a boglehead wanted to expand into real estate and commodities, would he do so with an etf or index fund?

I think a true Boglehead would stick with broad stocks and bonds. The problem with Sharpe's proposed Global Market Portfolio, and All Weather investing in general, is that there's no simple solution. It's difficult to define what the market really is, and then think about whether QE's distorted asset prices, and whether that view of the market's likely to be efficient. It's really the problem funds like Bridgewater work on.

Meb Faber's The Ivy Portfolio looks at how to build an endowment-inspired portfolio using a large allocation to real estate (in the form of, I think, Vanguard Real Estate ETF). I'd perhaps argue the real diversification benefits are only felt with semi-direct real estate investing (e.g. property Investment Trusts). I use a Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF. But I think you were to do this, you'd have to be completely on board with the theory and arguments. Otherwise, if the timing turns out to be wrong, you'll bail at some point

[Tanelorn]

once the Federal Reserve began actively entering the Treasury market to influence yields, forcing TIPS real yields deeply negative, it was time to pause buying TIPS. Now that trend is reversing and TIPS are again becoming attractive.

Do you know if the Fed has said whether their QT plans to sell off treasuries starting this month, and accelerating in the fall, will include their TIPS holdings or just nominal treasuries, or haven’t they said? I’d sure feel better buying after they were done selling given how much of the market they hold. I expect real yields would be much better after they’re done selling whatever they plan to sell.

[rockstar]

once the Federal Reserve began actively entering the Treasury market to influence yields, forcing TIPS real yields deeply negative, it was time to pause buying TIPS. Now that trend is reversing and TIPS are again becoming attractive.

Do you know if the Fed has said whether their QT plans to sell off treasuries starting this month, and accelerating in the fall, will include their TIPS holdings or just nominal treasuries, or haven’t they said? I’d sure feel better buying after they were done selling given how much of the market they hold. I expect real yields would be much better after they’re done selling whatever they plan to sell.

The Fed isn't selling. They're reinvesting less. If they were selling, it would send rates much higher.

[alluringreality]

Generally I prefer I bonds due to a lack of interest rate risk. My relative interest in TIPS tends to increase as market rates increase. Since the terms differ the comparison can be a bit subjective, but a difference around 1% does get me to consider buying TIPS.

TIPS yields have gone positive very recently. In November 2018 I bought them at about +1.0%. Today you can buy at 0.54%.

To quote another Boglehead:

It doesn't matter when you bought an investment. Every day you are holding it is, in a way, a new decision.

So if today is not the time to buy, it is also not the time to hold.

post link

I still read the intent of the phrase as support for the concept of "cutting your losses" or maybe "sell the rally", but I interpret it as an odd way to phrase such ideas without also potentially encouraging questionable retail investor behaviors like chasing returns and selling into price declines.

[pascalwager]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

[FreddieFIRE]

No. If I want to buy bonds, I’ll only buy Treasuries in IRAs and Munis in taxable.

TIPS are treasuries.

[TomatoTomahto]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

[AerialWombat]

Wow thats substantial I had no idea. If a boglehead wanted to expand into real estate and commodities, would he do so with an etf or index fund?

Most folks here will probably tell you that a Boglehead doesn't expand into real estate and commodities at all. They will tell you that a Total Stock Market fund is all you need, as it captures real estate and commodities at market weight. That statement is true within the context of public stocks within those industries, but absolutely not true in the context of their weight within GDP or global asset values.

A tiny portion of Bogleheads choose to own direct real estate. For some of us, our rental properties are what made us financially independent, and our stock/bond portfolios are a distant secondary consideration to our real estate investments. I FIREd recently, and more recently sold one rental property, and will sell another in 2023, in order to reduce my real estate exposure and "rebalance" into cash, bonds, and stocks. However, I will not sell all of my rentals; they will forever remain the cornerstone of my retirement plan. My retirement portfolio is currently 52% real estate.

While I spend literally only a few hours per year doing anything with my rentals, due to paying professional property managers to deal with day-to-day stuff, it's still not a completely passive income stream, and it does come with liability exposure that is utterly absent with stocks and bonds. Ultimately, you own and operate a business, not hold a security.

I know absolutely nothing about commodities, and am OK with my ignorance.

[BlueEars]

Thanks for some of the comments so far.

Please note that I did not ask about anyone's total portfolio and certainly not about real estate or commodities.

I have been a poster on this site for many years. It is getting more and more like a "Boglehead" religious site which is sad in my opinion. There is room for opinions on the future despite the usual mentions of "nobody knows nothing". Oh well, it is the internet after all.

[DougieJones]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

While I prefer the slight expense advantage of individual TIPS, I have no problem owning them in a fund. Some don’t like the more visible interest rate sensitivity, but at the end of the day it works out the same. If you need a more specific duration match, then individual TIPS are the easiest way to plan.

[dbr]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

Of course it is "ok" in general to hold a TIPS fund in a taxable account, or rather not "not ok." TIPS are slightly better than some other fixed income because Treasuries are exempt from state tax. The usual conversation about holding fixed income in taxable accounts is whether or not to hold tax exempt bonds, but I don't think there are any inflation indexed tax exempt bonds.

But taxes are an exercise in detail for each individual where a person tries to add up all the costs and benefits of how they invest and where they hold which investment. There is no set of commandments that answers all the questions.

[DougieJones]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

Of course it is "ok" in general to hold a TIPS fund in a taxable account, or rather not "not ok." TIPS are slightly better than some other fixed income because Treasuries are exempt from state tax. The usual conversation about holding fixed income in taxable accounts is whether or not to hold tax exempt bonds, but I don't think there are any inflation indexed tax exempt bonds.

But taxes are an exercise in detail for each individual where a person tries to add up all the costs and benefits of how they invest and where they hold which investment. There is no set of commandments that answers all the questions.

I read the question to focus not on TIPS in taxable vs. elsewhere, but fund vs. individual for simplification of tax filing. If that’s the case, then I would tend to agree. I may have misunderstood.

[Corvidae]

What do others think of this? Are TIPS a good fixed income choice in uncertain inflationary times ... or not?

When is the future inflation rate certain? Never. Inflation is a pernicious and persistent threat in a world with fiat currency systems. That is not a value statement but a fact. Previously, deflationary panics were more common than in recent history. Obviously the importance of deciding between nominal vs. real securities increases with exposure to inflation risks, but TIPS are the default fixed income option, IMO, regardless of yield.

[TomatoTomahto]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

Of course it is "ok" in general to hold a TIPS fund in a taxable account, or rather not "not ok." TIPS are slightly better than some other fixed income because Treasuries are exempt from state tax. The usual conversation about holding fixed income in taxable accounts is whether or not to hold tax exempt bonds, but I don't think there are any inflation indexed tax exempt bonds.

But taxes are an exercise in detail for each individual where a person tries to add up all the costs and benefits of how they invest and where they hold which investment. There is no set of commandments that answers all the questions.

I read the question to focus not on TIPS in taxable vs. elsewhere, but fund vs. individual for simplification of tax filing. If that’s the case, then I would tend to agree. I may have misunderstood.

Without getting too far into the weeds, most of our tax deferred space is already taken up with fixed income (stable value fund and BND). So yes, your take was correct.

The value of our “safe” assets (and they’ve earned the scare quotes) has dipped below an arbitrary number that I had settled on, so I’ve been considering adding to them when the next tranche of “lumpy” income comes our way.

[Svensk Anga]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

It is as okay as buying nominal treasuries in taxable. Which to choose depends mostly on your exposure to inflation. If Mr. Market is correct in his inflation expectations, they will be about the same.

If you buy a TIPS fund in taxable, you will have to pay taxes every year on the underlying coupon payments plus the inflation adjustment, less the fund expense ratio. As far as I know, the taxable ordinary income all comes as fund dividend payments. You may also get a capital gain distribution. If you hold individual TIPS issues instead of a fund, your tax exposure is the same, you just don’t get the inflation adjustment as income until you sell or the bond matures. You would have more control of capital gains. Taxation of the directly owned TIPS inflation adjustment is problematic since there is no corresponding cash flow to the investor to cover the liability. With a large TIPS portfolio and high inflation, one may have to scramble to pay the tax bill.

[BigJohn]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

The worry for many holding individual TIPS in taxable is that the inflation adjustment isn’t paid until maturity but the taxes are due each year. So you have to have some other source of income at tax time. On the other hand, TIPS funds are required to pay out the inflation adjustment each year so more like your other holding in taxable. In the end, I think it’s all the same unless you are cash flow limited and need to sell something you’d rather not to pay the taxes.

[pascalwager]

I don't know that the question is a Boglehead-type question. Duration-matched TIPS, even with a smallish, negative real yield, have a lower long-term risk than stocks, and may deserve a place in one's stock/bond portfolio.

Years ago, I bought some TIPS at TreasuryDirect. PITA for tax reporting. They have rolled off.

So, I’ve looked at the wiki’s section on bonds vs funds. Can someone explain as to a 10-year old if I’m “okay” buying a TIPS fund in taxable vs TIPS. Tax advantaged space is all used up with other fixed income assets. High tax bracket. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good enough.

I asked this same question of Grabiner in the recent past and TIPS funds in taxable are fine, although not ideal. I hold VAIPX, a TIPS fund, in taxable. You will need to pay taxes on the inflation adjustment, of course, but this is still better than forgoing the inflation protection.

Individual TIPS are not advisable for taxable because of the complicated tax calculations.

[Svensk Anga]

Individual TIPS are not advisable for taxable because of the complicated tax calculations.

I have not found it complicated at all. The broker reports two numbers: the coupon payments and the Original Issue Discount (OID) which is the inflation adjustment. One just has to get these into the tax software in the proper place. In my case, broker was Vanguard and software was H&R Block. I let my TIPS run to maturity.