Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
Topic Author
dawgs
Posts: 35
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2008 4:41 pm

Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by dawgs »

Hi All- I know there are some fans of Morgan Housel on the forum. Here is a link to one of his latest writings:

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/keep-it-going


Here is one of the many good quotes:
“Excellent returns for a few years” is not nearly as powerful as “pretty good returns for a long time.” And few things can beat, “average returns sustained for a very long time.”
Fallible
Posts: 8184
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:44 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by Fallible »

Housel has shown great ways of bringing perspective to wise investing, once by comparing the precision of a space mission with the imprecision of investing, and now comparing realistic training of top athletes with the often unrealistic goals of average investors. It's also a perspective on investing for the long term, on the Bogleheads' philosophy to stay the course, and on all smart investing. He writes:
For the highest levels to be attainable over time, the process has to be sustainable.

Which is exactly how good investing works too, isn’t it?

The most important investing question is not, “What are the highest returns I can earn?”

It’s, “What are the best returns I can sustain for the longest period of time?”
Also loved the video at the end of the small boy who not only illustrates Housel's point about sustaining for the long term, but also has figured out how to win that game (sort of tortoise and the hare with eggs).

Thanks for posting.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
User avatar
goingup
Posts: 4550
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:02 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by goingup »

Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
KlangFool
Posts: 25428
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by KlangFool »

goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
goingup,

Some folks are 100% stock with zero emergency fund. They believe that X% unemployment in the coming recession would not affect them. It only happened to other. But, a person could only be employed or unemployed. A person could not be X% unemployed.

Then, when it happened, they are wiped out. This story recurred itself every recession.

Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal.

KlangFool
40% VWENX | 12.5% VFWAX/VTIAX | 11.5% VTSAX | 16% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 40% Wellington 40% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
User avatar
alpenglow
Posts: 1389
Joined: Tue May 31, 2011 12:02 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by alpenglow »

Slow and steady wins the race.
Fallible
Posts: 8184
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:44 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by Fallible »

alpenglow wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:45 pm Slow and steady wins the race.
Right, and I assume you're referring to the Housel video where the boy wins an egg race. And not just because he was slow and steady, but because he had a plan, a strategy to carry out that plan, the ability to do so, and then to stay the course to the end. A great comparison to wise investing and fun to watch.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 4898
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by CyclingDuo »

alpenglow wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:45 pm Slow and steady wins the race.
Translation...

Invest on a regular basis a portion of your paycheck week in and week out, or bi-weekly, or monthly throughout your entire working career of 40 years. It doesn't matter what the market is doing, or isn't doing. There will be oodles of side distractions along the way that you simply just have to ignore.

:sharebeer

CyclingDuo
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
Valuethinker
Posts: 44949
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by Valuethinker »

goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
Thank you.

It was said of Daniel Kahneman, a key figure in the theory of behavioural economics, that his worldview was shaped by his childhood. Of fleeing from home to home in rural France when the Nazis were in power, praying each night to God to let them live another day. Whereas his partner, Amos Tversky, had been a paratrooper in the Israeli Defence Forces, perhaps on average the best army in the world at the time (all armies are shaped by context, US would have been deep in the jungles of SE Asia etc). Thus 2 men with extreme viewpoints re risk.

The scene in Band of Brothers were the US airborne troops board the planes & fly off to Normandy always gets me - I think my father remembered all the planes flying overhead that night.

This piece nicely encapsulates what it was that I keep trying to say to people. That they have to prepare for the worst. Or at least keep it in mind.

A robust strategy is one that considers the possibility of extreme negative events and the consequences. In investment terms, that means holding TIPS bonds I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_Glider Air Canada Flight 143, the Canadian version of Sully Sullentrope's Hudson Flyer. An impossible near catastrophe, overcome by the skill & knowledge of its pilot and copilot. I always try to pay attention to safety instructions, review the back of the seat card, etc.
User avatar
goingup
Posts: 4550
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:02 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by goingup »

KlangFool wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
goingup,

Some folks are 100% stock with zero emergency fund. They believe that X% unemployment in the coming recession would not affect them. It only happened to other. But, a person could only be employed or unemployed. A person could not be X% unemployed.

Then, when it happened, they are wiped out. This story recurred itself every recession.

Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal.

KlangFool
KF- sage advice about being financially prepared for job loss. It could become a reality for many if we enter a recession.
BernardShakey
Posts: 847
Joined: Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:52 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by BernardShakey »

KlangFool wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
goingup,

Some folks are 100% stock with zero emergency fund. They believe that X% unemployment in the coming recession would not affect them. It only happened to other. But, a person could only be employed or unemployed. A person could not be X% unemployed.

Then, when it happened, they are wiped out. This story recurred itself every recession.

Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal.

KlangFool
But life is full of tail end risks. You can be smart about them but you can't avoid them all.
An important key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
KlangFool
Posts: 25428
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by KlangFool »

BernardShakey wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:13 pm
KlangFool wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
goingup,

Some folks are 100% stock with zero emergency fund. They believe that X% unemployment in the coming recession would not affect them. It only happened to other. But, a person could only be employed or unemployed. A person could not be X% unemployed.

Then, when it happened, they are wiped out. This story recurred itself every recession.

Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal.

KlangFool
But life is full of tail end risks. You can be smart about them but you can't avoid them all.
Are you claiming that 100% stock and zero emergency fund is not avoidable?

Are you claiming that assuming unemployment in a recession is impossible is not avoidable?

Those are avoidable tail end risks.

But, there are plenty of folks that claim being young and accumulating, they are reasonable.

KlangFool
Last edited by KlangFool on Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
40% VWENX | 12.5% VFWAX/VTIAX | 11.5% VTSAX | 16% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 40% Wellington 40% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
bornloser
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2012 7:16 am

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by bornloser »

Really like this guy, his book The Psychology of Money is fantastic, great insight on human behavior with money and investing. Very Boglehead-ish but at least for me, added some new insights on this fascinating topic AND reinforced some of the hard core facets of successful long term investing that are espoused on this forum. Loved the athlete example and research!
BernardShakey
Posts: 847
Joined: Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:52 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by BernardShakey »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:49 am
BernardShakey wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:13 pm
KlangFool wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
goingup,

Some folks are 100% stock with zero emergency fund. They believe that X% unemployment in the coming recession would not affect them. It only happened to other. But, a person could only be employed or unemployed. A person could not be X% unemployed.

Then, when it happened, they are wiped out. This story recurred itself every recession.

Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal.

KlangFool
But life is full of tail end risks. You can be smart about them but you can't avoid them all.
Are you claiming that 100% stock and zero emergency fund is not avoidable?

Are you claiming that assuming unemployment in a recession is impossible is not avoidable?

Those are avoidable tail end risks.

But, there are plenty of folks that claim being young and accumulating, they are reasonable.

KlangFool
No, was reacting to your broad statement "Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal." I read it as all risks not just financial risks.
An important key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
KlangFool
Posts: 25428
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by KlangFool »

BernardShakey wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:38 am
KlangFool wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:49 am
BernardShakey wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:13 pm
KlangFool wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
goingup,

Some folks are 100% stock with zero emergency fund. They believe that X% unemployment in the coming recession would not affect them. It only happened to other. But, a person could only be employed or unemployed. A person could not be X% unemployed.

Then, when it happened, they are wiped out. This story recurred itself every recession.

Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal.

KlangFool
But life is full of tail end risks. You can be smart about them but you can't avoid them all.
Are you claiming that 100% stock and zero emergency fund is not avoidable?

Are you claiming that assuming unemployment in a recession is impossible is not avoidable?

Those are avoidable tail end risks.

But, there are plenty of folks that claim being young and accumulating, they are reasonable.

KlangFool
No, was reacting to your broad statement "Do not take any avoidable risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal." I read it as all risks not just financial risks.
BernardShakey,

Okay. I added one word.

KlangFool
40% VWENX | 12.5% VFWAX/VTIAX | 11.5% VTSAX | 16% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 40% Wellington 40% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
BernardShakey
Posts: 847
Joined: Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:52 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by BernardShakey »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:40 am
BernardShakey wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:38 am
KlangFool wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:49 am
BernardShakey wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:13 pm
KlangFool wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am

goingup,

Some folks are 100% stock with zero emergency fund. They believe that X% unemployment in the coming recession would not affect them. It only happened to other. But, a person could only be employed or unemployed. A person could not be X% unemployed.

Then, when it happened, they are wiped out. This story recurred itself every recession.

Do not take any risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal.

KlangFool
But life is full of tail end risks. You can be smart about them but you can't avoid them all.
Are you claiming that 100% stock and zero emergency fund is not avoidable?

Are you claiming that assuming unemployment in a recession is impossible is not avoidable?

Those are avoidable tail end risks.

But, there are plenty of folks that claim being young and accumulating, they are reasonable.

KlangFool
No, was reacting to your broad statement "Do not take any avoidable risk that the result of the tail end risk is fatal." I read it as all risks not just financial risks.
BernardShakey,

Okay. I added one word.

KlangFool
:sharebeer
An important key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
Fallible
Posts: 8184
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:44 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by Fallible »

goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
Thanks for posting his column about losing two great friends, fellow top skiers and just 17, in an avalanche in 2001. He writes so well about it and the lessons it can teach about risk, including investing risk, yet he still struggles to understand why he decided at the last minute not to join them on that fateful run, a struggle that may be lifelong.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Valuethinker
Posts: 44949
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by Valuethinker »

Fallible wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:04 pm
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
Thanks for posting his column about losing two great friends, fellow top skiers and just 17, in an avalanche in 2001. He writes so well about it and the lessons it can teach about risk, including investing risk, yet he still struggles to understand why he decided at the last minute not to join them on that fateful run, a struggle that may be lifelong.
Of the 4 suicide bombers that struck Tube & buses in London on 7-7-2005, killing 56.

The Northern Line was suspended due to the earlier attacks, and the last bomber was frantically trying to text his comperes (but they were already dead).

He boarded a diverted Number 30 Bus-- double decker. It was too crowded so he went upstairs, then detonated himself before the next stop, killing 11 passengers. Had he been downstairs he would have killed far more. The British Medical Association was meeting in the building next to the blast-- for a long time you could still see the pitted surface of the stonework on the fascia of the building from the attack. Doctors ran out and performed triage on tables in the quadrangle. Traffic was jammed so they carried the wounded, using tables as stretchers, to the ER about 200 yards away.

A 40-something IT consultant saw the bomber with his backpack get on the bus.

And he just... got off the bus.

He said at the Public Inquiry that to this day, he doesn't know why. Something told him to not stay on the bus.

Sometimes... something tells you.
Fallible
Posts: 8184
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:44 pm

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by Fallible »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:04 pm
Fallible wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:04 pm
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
Thanks for posting his column about losing two great friends, fellow top skiers and just 17, in an avalanche in 2001. He writes so well about it and the lessons it can teach about risk, including investing risk, yet he still struggles to understand why he decided at the last minute not to join them on that fateful run, a struggle that may be lifelong.
Of the 4 suicide bombers that struck Tube & buses in London on 7-7-2005, killing 56.

The Northern Line was suspended due to the earlier attacks, and the last bomber was frantically trying to text his comperes (but they were already dead).

He boarded a diverted Number 30 Bus-- double decker. It was too crowded so he went upstairs, then detonated himself before the next stop, killing 11 passengers. Had he been downstairs he would have killed far more. The British Medical Association was meeting in the building next to the blast-- for a long time you could still see the pitted surface of the stonework on the fascia of the building from the attack. Doctors ran out and performed triage on tables in the quadrangle. Traffic was jammed so they carried the wounded, using tables as stretchers, to the ER about 200 yards away.

A 40-something IT consultant saw the bomber with his backpack get on the bus.

And he just... got off the bus.

He said at the Public Inquiry that to this day, he doesn't know why. Something told him to not stay on the bus.

Sometimes... something tells you.
Yes, this is another good example of that "something," - maybe a sixth sense, or intuition, instinct, a previous experience, something about the bomber triggers something in the subconscious that isn't yet consciously known, etc. And there's still the question of what triggers it. Housel was just 17, as were his two friends, which must make it even harder for him to understand his decision at that time. His writing shows unusual perception into human nature, so perhaps he had that budding perception at 17 and was not yet aware of it.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Parkinglotracer
Posts: 1229
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:49 am
Location: Upstate NY

Re: Morgan Housel's latest writing at Collaborative Fund

Post by Parkinglotracer »

Fallible wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:35 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:04 pm
Fallible wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:04 pm
goingup wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am Big fan here. He thinks deeply about many things and weaves history and human behavior into his observations about investing. I always learn something from his writing.

This piece is especially gratifying for us long-term investors who subscribe to the "good enough" theory of investing. It's all about average returns compounding over long swaths of time. Thanks for posting!

If you haven't read it, read this piece about risk. It's about how a single life-defining experience as a young man taught him about the nature of risk. Profound. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... s-of-risk/
Thanks for posting his column about losing two great friends, fellow top skiers and just 17, in an avalanche in 2001. He writes so well about it and the lessons it can teach about risk, including investing risk, yet he still struggles to understand why he decided at the last minute not to join them on that fateful run, a struggle that may be lifelong.
Of the 4 suicide bombers that struck Tube & buses in London on 7-7-2005, killing 56.

The Northern Line was suspended due to the earlier attacks, and the last bomber was frantically trying to text his comperes (but they were already dead).

He boarded a diverted Number 30 Bus-- double decker. It was too crowded so he went upstairs, then detonated himself before the next stop, killing 11 passengers. Had he been downstairs he would have killed far more. The British Medical Association was meeting in the building next to the blast-- for a long time you could still see the pitted surface of the stonework on the fascia of the building from the attack. Doctors ran out and performed triage on tables in the quadrangle. Traffic was jammed so they carried the wounded, using tables as stretchers, to the ER about 200 yards away.

A 40-something IT consultant saw the bomber with his backpack get on the bus.

And he just... got off the bus.

He said at the Public Inquiry that to this day, he doesn't know why. Something told him to not stay on the bus.

Sometimes... something tells you.
Yes, this is another good example of that "something," - maybe a sixth sense, or intuition, instinct, a previous experience, something about the bomber triggers something in the subconscious that isn't yet consciously known, etc. And there's still the question of what triggers it. Housel was just 17, as were his two friends, which must make it even harder for him to understand his decision at that time. His writing shows unusual perception into human nature, so perhaps he had that budding perception at 17 and was not yet aware of it.
Great articles.

While I don’t buy a sixth sense, I do buy “it’s Better to be lucky than good”

Seems like the most prepared and hardest working folks are the luckiest.
Post Reply