S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

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tennisplyr
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S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by tennisplyr »

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?
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Nathan Drake
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Nathan Drake »

tennisplyr wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:40 pm So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?
That statistic can lead one to be more inclined to believe that we could be far away from the bottom.

But yes, ignore the noise generally applies regardless as long as you know the risks to your current portfolio construction.
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Booper
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Booper »

tennisplyr wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:40 pm So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?
To be honest, it did not occur to me to look at the S&P 500.

But I am paying close attention to VBTLX and inflation.

I remember reading that periods of inflation have caused more problems for investors than stock market losses.

What is going on with VBTLX is historic and worth taking seriously.
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Artsdoctor
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Artsdoctor »

Absolutely ignoring the YTD noise. The last few years have had stellar returns for equities and corrections are inevitable (as are bear markets).
Normchad
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Normchad »

So what lessons have you learned from this crash?
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AerialWombat
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by AerialWombat »

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Last edited by AerialWombat on Mon May 23, 2022 2:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
For entertainment purposes only.
000
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by 000 »

tennisplyr wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:40 pm So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago.
Is that a challenge for Mr. Market? :twisted:
Random Walker
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Random Walker »

tennisplyr wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:40 pm So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?
Not me. I look at all time frames until I find one that suites my current confirmation bias.

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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Dry-Drink »

tennisplyr wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:40 pm So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago.
Ah I remember that time in 2020. Buying the S&P500 at sub 3000. Those were some of the best investments I ever made (and probably ever will).
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mangorunner
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by mangorunner »

AerialWombat wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:58 pm I just cut my 2022 tax bill by $2,550 by tax loss harvesting. Definitely not ignoring that!
Amen to that! :D
chris319
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by chris319 »

SPX on May 12, 2017: 2,390.90

SPX on May 12, 2022: 3,930.08

CAGR = 28.2%
The only person you have to please in life is yourself.
Leesbro63
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Leesbro63 »

Where are we compared to, say, January 30, 2021, just before the Covid thread started becoming serious? Cherry picking near the bottom of the Covid drop is a good fact to remember but so it the slightly longer term context.
delamer
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by delamer »

I record any time our retirement accounts reach a new high. (Based on weekly updates of Quicken.)

That’s my measuring stick.

We are down about 14% from that high.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by rob »

As someone famous once paraphrased... It's all relative :D
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adestefan
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by adestefan »

Leesbro63 wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 3:12 pm Where are we compared to, say, January 30, 2021, just before the Covid thread started becoming serious? Cherry picking near the bottom of the Covid drop is a good fact to remember but so it the slightly longer term context.
3386.15 was the pre-COVID high in February 2020.
Leesbro63
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Leesbro63 »

adestefan wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 3:29 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 3:12 pm Where are we compared to, say, January 30, 2021, just before the Covid thread started becoming serious? Cherry picking near the bottom of the Covid drop is a good fact to remember but so it the slightly longer term context.
3386.15 was the pre-COVID high in February 2020.
So as of today (Friday May 13, 2022) we’re up about 18%. Probably a few percent above the inflation since then.
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by KlangFool »

tennisplyr wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:40 pm So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?
Did you rebalance? If you are not 100% US stock, the 5/25 band based rebalancing would had triggered and captured the gain.

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grok87
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by grok87 »

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
RIP Mr. Bogle.
delamer
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by delamer »

grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
Robot Monster
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Robot Monster »

I care about decades, bro. Two year performance? Bah!
"You can cut all the flowers, but you can't stop the spring from coming." Pablo Neruda
Normchad
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Normchad »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 5:39 pm I care about decades, bro. Two year performance? Bah!
Exactly. My investing experience is already in its 4th decade. I’m likely to make it to six decades of investing.
02nz
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by 02nz »

tennisplyr wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:40 pm So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?
It's up more than that, you appear to have excluded dividends.
abc132
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by abc132 »

grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
Yes, one captured something more than choosing the worst of the three.

Think of diversification as not trying to pick the winner and those performance numbers will make complete sense.
grok87
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by grok87 »

delamer wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:57 pm
grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.
agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.
RIP Mr. Bogle.
grok87
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by grok87 »

abc132 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 6:09 pm
grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
Yes, one captured something more than choosing the worst of the three.

Think of diversification as not trying to pick the winner and those performance numbers will make complete sense.
agree
RIP Mr. Bogle.
Leesbro63
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Leesbro63 »

grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 8:51 pm
delamer wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:57 pm
grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.
agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.
Again it proves Bogle’s observation: “Nobody knows nuthin’”.
Normchad
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Normchad »

Leesbro63 wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 10:48 am
grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 8:51 pm
delamer wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:57 pm
grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.
agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.
Again it proves Bogle’s observation: “Nobody knows nuthin’”.
That’s really the thing, isn’t it? If you really believe it, it makes it all so much easier. If you really believe it, you don’t buy crypto or ARKK because those things are touted by “experts” who “know the future”.

I’m so glad I read Random Walk back in the 90s, and really came to understand this…..
Triple digit golfer
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Yes, I ignore the noise.
Leesbro63
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by Leesbro63 »

Normchad wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 10:52 am
Leesbro63 wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 10:48 am
grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 8:51 pm
delamer wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:57 pm
grok87 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?
Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.
agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.
Again it proves Bogle’s observation: “Nobody knows nuthin’”.
That’s really the thing, isn’t it? If you really believe it, it makes it all so much easier. If you really believe it, you don’t buy crypto or ARKK because those things are touted by “experts” who “know the future”.

I’m so glad I read Random Walk back in the 90s, and really came to understand this…..
My portfolio was about 53% equity at the end of 2021. Mostly Vanguard Total Market, with some Vanguard REIT and a small amount of international. Short term muni bond funds and cash making up the remaining 47%. I'm now down exactly 10%. It's painful, but I keep reminding myself that in this market this is a total win.
lostdog
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Re: S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

Post by lostdog »

Yeah, glad I ignored the meme stocks, tech bros, Cathy Wood's arkk hype and crypto bros with the laser eyes.

Ignore the noise pulled through again. VT and chill...
VT and chill...
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