10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

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Drew31
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10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.

I'm wanting to make sure I'm interpreting the information correctly.

This was issued in Jan at yeild of -.54%, then re-opened in March where yield was -.589%. If I use this link https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips, this TIP is now yielding .229%. Obviously markets can change between now and the 19th and the rate would be determined at auction, but if auction was held today, I'd be looking at a .2% real yield on this bond?

I'm in early 40s and after realizing how easy it is to buy individual treasuries, I'm slowly looking to perhaps transition my limited bond holdings towards individual bonds vs. funds. Part of it is also a learning experience as the amounts I'd be using aren't really going to be moving the needle from an overall portfolio perspective. I'm trying to really get a better grasp on bonds now for 15 years or so from now when it will become more prominent as I'm eyeing 55-60 as the time to perhaps not retire completely, but certainly be backing off.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by jeffyscott »

I have never bought one at auction (I have bought existing ones on the secondary market), but that or what the Treasury yield curve site has would be about my expectation. The treasury yield curve was at 0.26% real for 10 year on Friday. From the yield curve site, you can also see how much they might change in even just a day, there was a 0.17% from April 30 to May 1, for example.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

CUSIP 91282CDX6 matures 1/15/2032. On Friday shortly before market close, I pulled TIPS yields from Fidelity. The ask yield (what you get when you buy) was 0.24%, so this would have been about the real return you'd get if held to maturity, the variable being the coupon reinvestment rates. Since the coupon is only 0.125%, this isn't a huge factor.

The only advantage of buying at auction is that you get the same price/yield as institutional investors. So on the secondary market, I look at the large/small quantity spread. Currently market is closed, but Fidelity is showing ask yield of 0.256% for min qty 150 ($150K face value). If you wanted to buy less than that, the ask shown for min qty 10 is 0.251%, so only half a basis point lower. I would be happy with this if I wanted $10K or more of a 10-year TIPS. In other words, you don't lose much for a smaller quantity on secondary market compared to auction.

So, if you're happy with 0.24%, there's really no reason to wait for the auction, since you could buy this on Monday on the secondary market.

However, there can be auction surprises. As I recall, the auction yield on the last 5-year TIPS was higher than expected based on secondary market quotes.

Kevin
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

Thanks both - Kevin, this certainly helped clarify for me the waiting for auction vs. just buying secondary. One thing to clarfiy, where you mentioned the reinvestment rate. Are you saying basically dependent on what rate I am able to reinvest the coupon payment? But, to your point at .125% my coupon payment would only be like $12.50 annually on a $10,000 purchase if I’m doing my math correct.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by jeffyscott »

Kevin M wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 1:53 pmThe only advantage of buying at auction is that you get the same price/yield as institutional investors. So on the secondary market, I look at the large/small quantity spread. Currently market is closed, but Fidelity is showing ask yield of 0.256% for min qty 150 ($150K face value). If you wanted to buy less than that, the ask shown for min qty 10 is 0.251%, so only half a basis point lower. I would be happy with this if I wanted $10K or more of a 10-year TIPS. In other words, you don't lose much for a smaller quantity on secondary market compared to auction.
But, would you not think that there's an even lower price than what they show for 150 for really large quantities?

Schwab's TIPS mutual fund (SWRSX), which is relatively small at $2.8 bil, has about $70 million in that particular TIPS. So I would think mutual funds would be trading in much larger quantities than even 150. Though, they presumably will buy whatever they initially need to match the index at the auction. (That makes me wonder how an index fund decides what to bid, since non-competitive are limited to $5 million.)
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

jeffyscott wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:46 pm
Kevin M wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 1:53 pmThe only advantage of buying at auction is that you get the same price/yield as institutional investors. So on the secondary market, I look at the large/small quantity spread. Currently market is closed, but Fidelity is showing ask yield of 0.256% for min qty 150 ($150K face value). If you wanted to buy less than that, the ask shown for min qty 10 is 0.251%, so only half a basis point lower. I would be happy with this if I wanted $10K or more of a 10-year TIPS. In other words, you don't lose much for a smaller quantity on secondary market compared to auction.
But, would you not think that there's an even lower price than what they show for 150 for really large quantities?

Schwab's TIPS mutual fund (SWRSX), which is relatively small at $2.8 bil, has about $70 million in that particular TIPS. So I would think mutual funds would be trading in much larger quantities than even 150. Though, they presumably will buy whatever they initially need to match the index at the auction. (That makes me wonder how an index fund decides what to bid, since non-competitive are limited to $5 million.)
Perhaps. I often see best price/yield for min qty 1,000 ($1M face value).
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

An update: Went ahead and bought the min quantity of 10 this morning. I can't recall now exact number but Fidelity quoted the yield at .26 something when I bought. Definitely a new experience buying on secondary market and took me a few to get myself sorted out. We'll see how it goes. I do like the idea of eventually creating my own bond ladders so enjoy the learning experience here.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 5:53 pm An update: Went ahead and bought the min quantity of 10 this morning. I can't recall now exact number but Fidelity quoted the yield at .26 something when I bought. Definitely a new experience buying on secondary market and took me a few to get myself sorted out. We'll see how it goes. I do like the idea of eventually creating my own bond ladders so enjoy the learning experience here.
That's great. The yield I see from quotes I pulled at about 12:30 pm is 0.27%, and that probably would be for a large quantity (best yield), so 0.26% sounds about right. The yield will appear on the trade confirmation, which you can see tomorrow if you bought today. You can also calculate it from price, coupon, settlement date, and maturity. Using what I see from the quote I pulled, this works in Google sheets for purchase today (settlement tomorrow):

=YIELD("5/10/2022", "1/15/2032", 0.125%, 98.625, 100, 2, 1)

That returns 0.269%, and Fidelity shows 0.268%, so close enough. Plug in the price you paid instead of the price I used.

You might also buy some at auction if you haven't done that yet.

Kevin
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by White Coat Investor »

Drew31 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:12 am So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.

I'm wanting to make sure I'm interpreting the information correctly.

This was issued in Jan at yeild of -.54%, then re-opened in March where yield was -.589%. If I use this link https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips, this TIP is now yielding .229%. Obviously markets can change between now and the 19th and the rate would be determined at auction, but if auction was held today, I'd be looking at a .2% real yield on this bond?

I'm in early 40s and after realizing how easy it is to buy individual treasuries, I'm slowly looking to perhaps transition my limited bond holdings towards individual bonds vs. funds. Part of it is also a learning experience as the amounts I'd be using aren't really going to be moving the needle from an overall portfolio perspective. I'm trying to really get a better grasp on bonds now for 15 years or so from now when it will become more prominent as I'm eyeing 55-60 as the time to perhaps not retire completely, but certainly be backing off.
Similar situation as I transition TIPS out of a retirement account and into taxable. Just bought my first individual TIPS last month (the 5 year) and probably will buy some more 10 year this month as I sell SCHP in a 401(k).
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

Kevin M wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 6:27 pm
Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 5:53 pm An update: Went ahead and bought the min quantity of 10 this morning. I can't recall now exact number but Fidelity quoted the yield at .26 something when I bought. Definitely a new experience buying on secondary market and took me a few to get myself sorted out. We'll see how it goes. I do like the idea of eventually creating my own bond ladders so enjoy the learning experience here.
That's great. The yield I see from quotes I pulled at about 12:30 pm is 0.27%, and that probably would be for a large quantity (best yield), so 0.26% sounds about right. The yield will appear on the trade confirmation, which you can see tomorrow if you bought today. You can also calculate it from price, coupon, settlement date, and maturity. Using what I see from the quote I pulled, this works in Google sheets for purchase today (settlement tomorrow):

=YIELD("5/10/2022", "1/15/2032", 0.125%, 98.625, 100, 2, 1)

That returns 0.269%, and Fidelity shows 0.268%, so close enough. Plug in the price you paid instead of the price I used.

You might also buy some at auction if you haven't done that yet.

Kevin
I bought at 98.648 so I calculate .266% based on your formula (thanks for that) which is roughly where I recall it being when I purchased. I'll confirm tomorrow on the trade confirm. Took me a few tries to get order placed, plus I had that feeling when I was doing it like I wasn't sure what I was doing. Figured it out eventually. Who knows what rates will do but given the past decade I don't feel horrible about a guaranteed .27% real.

I may do more at auction. Haven't decided for sure. I'm also eyeing whether I want to do a 20 year TIP maturing Feb '42 that is yielding ~.75% (CUSIP 912810RA8). Again, I'm a good 20 years away at this point before I begin to withdrawal so don't mind the longer duration. Plus, seems like a decent real yield from where we've been. For whatever reason, I find it easier to handle the duration in a actual bond whereas the thought of buying LPTZ kind of gives me chills.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

White Coat Investor wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 6:31 pm
Drew31 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:12 am So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.

I'm wanting to make sure I'm interpreting the information correctly.

This was issued in Jan at yeild of -.54%, then re-opened in March where yield was -.589%. If I use this link https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips, this TIP is now yielding .229%. Obviously markets can change between now and the 19th and the rate would be determined at auction, but if auction was held today, I'd be looking at a .2% real yield on this bond?

I'm in early 40s and after realizing how easy it is to buy individual treasuries, I'm slowly looking to perhaps transition my limited bond holdings towards individual bonds vs. funds. Part of it is also a learning experience as the amounts I'd be using aren't really going to be moving the needle from an overall portfolio perspective. I'm trying to really get a better grasp on bonds now for 15 years or so from now when it will become more prominent as I'm eyeing 55-60 as the time to perhaps not retire completely, but certainly be backing off.
Similar situation as I transition TIPS out of a retirement account and into taxable. Just bought my first individual TIPS last month (the 5 year) and probably will buy some more 10 year this month as I sell SCHP in a 401(k).
So is your plan to basically sell out of your SCHP and into the individual bonds over time where you end up with just individual bonds? Curious your approach. Trying to think through my strategy here before I end up just haphazardly buying stuff without a well formulated plan.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:16 pm I bought at 98.648 so I calculate .266% based on your formula (thanks for that) which is roughly where I recall it being when I purchased.
I get 0.267%, and adding one digit, 0.2665%, so some sort of rounding thing maybe, but I would think we'd get the same thing in Google sheets using the YIELD function. Of course the difference is basically meaningless.

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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

Kevin M wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:26 pm
Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:16 pm I bought at 98.648 so I calculate .266% based on your formula (thanks for that) which is roughly where I recall it being when I purchased.
I get 0.267%, and adding one digit, 0.2665%, so some sort of rounding thing maybe, but I would think we'd get the same thing in Google sheets using the YIELD function. Of course the difference is basically meaningless.

Kevin
I made a TYPO. I typed in a coupon of .124 instead of .125. Corrected that and I get the same as you. .267 with .2665 if I add a digit.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by White Coat Investor »

Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:18 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 6:31 pm
Drew31 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:12 am So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.

I'm wanting to make sure I'm interpreting the information correctly.

This was issued in Jan at yeild of -.54%, then re-opened in March where yield was -.589%. If I use this link https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips, this TIP is now yielding .229%. Obviously markets can change between now and the 19th and the rate would be determined at auction, but if auction was held today, I'd be looking at a .2% real yield on this bond?

I'm in early 40s and after realizing how easy it is to buy individual treasuries, I'm slowly looking to perhaps transition my limited bond holdings towards individual bonds vs. funds. Part of it is also a learning experience as the amounts I'd be using aren't really going to be moving the needle from an overall portfolio perspective. I'm trying to really get a better grasp on bonds now for 15 years or so from now when it will become more prominent as I'm eyeing 55-60 as the time to perhaps not retire completely, but certainly be backing off.
Similar situation as I transition TIPS out of a retirement account and into taxable. Just bought my first individual TIPS last month (the 5 year) and probably will buy some more 10 year this month as I sell SCHP in a 401(k).
So is your plan to basically sell out of your SCHP and into the individual bonds over time where you end up with just individual bonds? Curious your approach. Trying to think through my strategy here before I end up just haphazardly buying stuff without a well formulated plan.
That's the basic gist of it. Maybe I'll buy some of the Vanguard TIPS fund in taxable or something too to provide a bit more liquidity for rebalancing. Dunno yet. But the bottom line is that my taxable:tax protected ratio keeps rising and so I keep moving asset classes out of tax protected and into taxable. TSM is already out. TISM already out. Small international is out. Small value is on its way out. Nominal bonds are mostly out (munis). Equity real estate is out. I think it's going to be TIPS, then REITS next. I've got the G fund in there that isn't available anywhere else and I've got my most tax-inefficient asset class (debt real estate) in there. But I figure the rest of the SV and TIPS will be out of there within another year or two at this rate. #firstworldproblems
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The 10 year tips auction announced May 12, 2022

Post by dual »

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

I am considering placing an order to buy at this auction and I would like to understand what to expect. I've been doing some research and here are some things I have found.

I would appreciate help in understanding what price I would expect to pay at the auction and what this would imply for the interest payments and inflation adjustments to the principal over the term of the bond.

--------
Next week’s reopening auction of a 10-year TIPS should be interesting. That TIPS is currently trading on the secondary market with a real yield of 0.32% and a price discounted to par. We haven’t seen that in a long time. I will be writing a preview article on that auction this weekend.
https://tipswatch.com/2022/05/11/u-s-in ... ectations/
treasury direct explains issue and re-issue schedule for 10 year tips
The 10-year TIPS is auctioned as an original issue in January and July. The 10-year TIPS is auctioned as a reopening in March, May, September, and November.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/m ... s/tips.htm

results of January auction
New 10-year TIPS auctions with a real yield of -0.540%
https://tipswatch.com/2022/01/

quote from Bloomberg
COUPON PRICE YIELD
0.13 99.51 0.18%
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates ... t-bonds/us

from the same Bloomberg website, I calculate the break even inflation to be 2.84% -.18% = 2.66%
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by bridge2benefits »

I'm very excited to participate in this auction, and in fact I plan to buy as many TIPS as my cash available to trade will allow. I noticed that if I try to buy an excessive number of TIPS, Fidelity displays a message that includes an estimate of the price, even though the final price will be determined at auction.

For example, if I preview an order of 100 TIPS, the message says that the estimated order value is $103,054, which works out to $1,030.54 per TIP.

Does anyone know the formula they use to calculate this price? They list the inflation factor at 1.03672, coupon 0.125, expected yield 0.214, dated date 01/15/2022, maturity date 01/15/2032.

Also, does anyone know what will happen if the auction price comes in higher than the estimate, such that there's not enough cash in the account to fill the trade? Would Fidelity kill the entire order if it can't be filled completely, or would they just purchase one less TIPS?
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Re: The 10 year tips auction announced May 12, 2022

Post by #Cruncher »

dual wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 12:50 pmI would appreciate help in understanding what price I would expect to pay at the auction ...
Your cost will depend on what the auction yield is. The auction Thursday May 19 is a re-opening of the 10-year TIPS maturing January 15, 2032. According to today's WSJ TIPS Quotes it is currently yielding +0.220%. The table below shows the cost for $10,000 face value at various yields below and above that. For example, if the auction yield were 0.25% (close to the yield today) you'd pay $10,249. (The table uses the Excel COUPPCD, COUPNCD, and PV functions.)

Code: Select all

Row                   Col A         Col B   Formula in column B
  1              Face value        10,000
  2             Index ratio       1.03672
  3                  Issued     5/31/2022
  4                 Matures     1/15/2032
  5                  Coupon        0.125%
  6  Previous interest date     1/15/2022  =COUPPCD(B3,B4,2,1)
  7      Next interest date     7/15/2022  =COUPNCD(B3,B4,2,1)
  8  Days in partial period           181  =B7-B6
  9   Days after issue date            45  =B7-B3
 10     Number full periods            19  =(YEAR(B4)-YEAR(B7))*2+(MONTH(B4)-MONTH(B7))/6
 11                             Cost Incl
 12       Yield to maturity   Accrued Int

Code: Select all

 13                (0.500%)     11,011.74  =B$1*B$2*(-PV(A13/2,B$10,B$5/2,1,0)+B$5/2)/(1+(A13/2)*(B$9/B$8))
 14                (0.375%)     10,880.55   v v v
 15                (0.250%)     10,751.01
 16                (0.125%)     10,623.10
 17                 0.000%      10,496.79
 18                 0.125%      10,372.07
 19                 0.250%      10,248.91  <===
 20                 0.375%      10,127.29
 21                 0.500%      10,007.20
 22                 0.625%       9,888.61
 23                 0.750%       9,771.51
 24                 0.875%       9,655.86
 25                 1.000%       9,541.67
dual, continuing in same post, wrote:and what this would imply for the interest payments and inflation adjustments to the principal over the term of the bond.
The price you pay at the auction will have no effect on future interest payments or inflation adjustments.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

bridge2benefits wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:17 pm For example, if I preview an order of 100 TIPS, the message says that the estimated order value is $103,054, which works out to $1,030.54 per TIP.

Does anyone know the formula they use to calculate this price? They list the inflation factor at 1.03672, coupon 0.125, expected yield 0.214, dated date 01/15/2022, maturity date 01/15/2032.
To calculate the adjusted price, you need to know the unadjusted price. For example, there is a TIPS maturing 1/15/2032 with a coupon of 0.125% and unadjusted ask price of 99.242. The inflation factor is 1.02879, so adjusted price is 99.242 * 1.02879 = 102.099.

This is the one that is being auctioned (re-opening). The inflation factor is higher because it doesn't settle until 5/31/2022. We don't know what the unadjusted price will be on 5/31, but you can use today's price and calculate what the adjusted price would be using this inflation factor, which is 102.099 102.886. There also is some accrued interest, which will add to the total amount you pay.

Kevin
Last edited by Kevin M on Thu May 12, 2022 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

Note that you could buy this TIPS tomorrow on the secondary market, and get the inflation adjustment increase between 5/16 (settlement) and 5/31 (auction settlement). You'd also know exactly what you're paying. The price might go up or down between now and auction.

EDIT: When this thread was started on May 8, ask yield was .229%, and today it was 0.204%, so price has gone up since then. Just an example of the uncertainty of the price over less than a week.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by WoodSpinner »

White Coat Investor wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 4:54 pm
Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:18 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 6:31 pm
Drew31 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:12 am So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.

I'm wanting to make sure I'm interpreting the information correctly.

This was issued in Jan at yeild of -.54%, then re-opened in March where yield was -.589%. If I use this link https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips, this TIP is now yielding .229%. Obviously markets can change between now and the 19th and the rate would be determined at auction, but if auction was held today, I'd be looking at a .2% real yield on this bond?

I'm in early 40s and after realizing how easy it is to buy individual treasuries, I'm slowly looking to perhaps transition my limited bond holdings towards individual bonds vs. funds. Part of it is also a learning experience as the amounts I'd be using aren't really going to be moving the needle from an overall portfolio perspective. I'm trying to really get a better grasp on bonds now for 15 years or so from now when it will become more prominent as I'm eyeing 55-60 as the time to perhaps not retire completely, but certainly be backing off.
Similar situation as I transition TIPS out of a retirement account and into taxable. Just bought my first individual TIPS last month (the 5 year) and probably will buy some more 10 year this month as I sell SCHP in a 401(k).
So is your plan to basically sell out of your SCHP and into the individual bonds over time where you end up with just individual bonds? Curious your approach. Trying to think through my strategy here before I end up just haphazardly buying stuff without a well formulated plan.
That's the basic gist of it. Maybe I'll buy some of the Vanguard TIPS fund in taxable or something too to provide a bit more liquidity for rebalancing. Dunno yet. But the bottom line is that my taxable:tax protected ratio keeps rising and so I keep moving asset classes out of tax protected and into taxable. TSM is already out. TISM already out. Small international is out. Small value is on its way out. Nominal bonds are mostly out (munis). Equity real estate is out. I think it's going to be TIPS, then REITS next. I've got the G fund in there that isn't available anywhere else and I've got my most tax-inefficient asset class (debt real estate) in there. But I figure the rest of the SV and TIPS will be out of there within another year or two at this rate. #firstworldproblems
are you concerned about the Tax drag of the Inflation adjustments for Tips held in Taxable vs. Tax-deferred?

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Post by dual »

thanks for the info. There's another thread on this Tips auction

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewt ... t=6674902
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by White Coat Investor »

WoodSpinner wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:46 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 4:54 pm
Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:18 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 6:31 pm
Drew31 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:12 am So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.

I'm wanting to make sure I'm interpreting the information correctly.

This was issued in Jan at yeild of -.54%, then re-opened in March where yield was -.589%. If I use this link https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips, this TIP is now yielding .229%. Obviously markets can change between now and the 19th and the rate would be determined at auction, but if auction was held today, I'd be looking at a .2% real yield on this bond?

I'm in early 40s and after realizing how easy it is to buy individual treasuries, I'm slowly looking to perhaps transition my limited bond holdings towards individual bonds vs. funds. Part of it is also a learning experience as the amounts I'd be using aren't really going to be moving the needle from an overall portfolio perspective. I'm trying to really get a better grasp on bonds now for 15 years or so from now when it will become more prominent as I'm eyeing 55-60 as the time to perhaps not retire completely, but certainly be backing off.
Similar situation as I transition TIPS out of a retirement account and into taxable. Just bought my first individual TIPS last month (the 5 year) and probably will buy some more 10 year this month as I sell SCHP in a 401(k).
So is your plan to basically sell out of your SCHP and into the individual bonds over time where you end up with just individual bonds? Curious your approach. Trying to think through my strategy here before I end up just haphazardly buying stuff without a well formulated plan.
That's the basic gist of it. Maybe I'll buy some of the Vanguard TIPS fund in taxable or something too to provide a bit more liquidity for rebalancing. Dunno yet. But the bottom line is that my taxable:tax protected ratio keeps rising and so I keep moving asset classes out of tax protected and into taxable. TSM is already out. TISM already out. Small international is out. Small value is on its way out. Nominal bonds are mostly out (munis). Equity real estate is out. I think it's going to be TIPS, then REITS next. I've got the G fund in there that isn't available anywhere else and I've got my most tax-inefficient asset class (debt real estate) in there. But I figure the rest of the SV and TIPS will be out of there within another year or two at this rate. #firstworldproblems
are you concerned about the Tax drag of the Inflation adjustments for Tips held in Taxable vs. Tax-deferred?

WoodSpinner
Sure. I'd love to have more tax- protected space. But you go to war with the army you have. If I had something better to move into taxable I would move that instead of TIPS.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged dual's thread into a similar discussion. The combined thread is in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general discussion).

(Thanks to the member who reported the post and provided a link to this thread.)
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by #Cruncher »

bridge2benefits wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:17 pm... if I preview an order of 100 TIPS, the message says that the estimated order value is $103,054, which works out to $1,030.54 per TIP. Does anyone know the formula they use to calculate this price? They list the inflation factor at 1.03672, coupon 0.125, expected yield 0.214, dated date 01/15/2022, maturity date 01/15/2032.
I don't see how Fidelity is estimating that order value. I come up with $102,842 including accrued interest. Here's the calculation using Excel's DATE, PRICE, COUPDAYBS, and COUPDAYS functions. The 1.03672 index ratio is shown at the bottom of the auction announcement.

Code: Select all

Row                     Col A     Col B   Formula in column B
  1          Unadjusted price    99.153  =PRICE(DATE(2022,5,31),DATE(2032,1,15),0.125%,0.214%,100,2,1)
  2            Adjusted price   102.794  =B1*1.03672
  3          Accrued interest     0.049  =1.03672*(0.125/2)*COUPDAYBS(DATE(2022,5,31),DATE(2032,1,15),2,1)/COUPDAYS(DATE(2022,5,31),DATE(2032,1,15),2,1)
  4  Total cost per $100 face   102.842  =B2+B3
Here is a table, modified from one shown in this post from another thread that LadyGeek merged into this one. It shows the total cost including accrued interest for $100,000 face value at various yields-to-maturity. It uses another formula that I believe is what the Treasury uses in calculating the price corresponding to the actual auction yield.

Code: Select all

Row                   Col A         Col B   Formula in column B
  1              Face value       100,000
  2             Index ratio       1.03672
  3                  Issued     5/31/2022
  4                 Matures     1/15/2032
  5                  Coupon        0.125%
  6  Previous interest date     1/15/2022  =COUPPCD(B3,B4,2,1)
  7      Next interest date     7/15/2022  =COUPNCD(B3,B4,2,1)
  8  Days in partial period           181  =B7-B6
  9   Days after issue date            45  =B7-B3
 10     Number full periods            19  =(YEAR(B4)-YEAR(B7))*2+(MONTH(B4)-MONTH(B7))/6
 11                             Cost Incl
 12       Yield to maturity   Accrued Int

Code: Select all

 13                (0.500%)       110,117  =B$1*B$2*(-PV(A13/2,B$10,B$5/2,1,0)+B$5/2)/(1+(A13/2)*(B$9/B$8))
 14                (0.375%)       108,805   v v v
 15                (0.250%)       107,510
 16                (0.125%)       106,231
 17                 0.000%        104,968
 18                 0.125%        103,721
 19                 0.214%        102,842 <===
 20                 0.375%        101,273
 21                 0.500%        100,072
 22                 0.625%         98,886
 23                 0.750%         97,715
 24                 0.875%         96,559
 25                 1.000%         95,417
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by WoodSpinner »

White Coat Investor wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:33 am
WoodSpinner wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:46 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 4:54 pm
Drew31 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:18 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 6:31 pm

Similar situation as I transition TIPS out of a retirement account and into taxable. Just bought my first individual TIPS last month (the 5 year) and probably will buy some more 10 year this month as I sell SCHP in a 401(k).
So is your plan to basically sell out of your SCHP and into the individual bonds over time where you end up with just individual bonds? Curious your approach. Trying to think through my strategy here before I end up just haphazardly buying stuff without a well formulated plan.
That's the basic gist of it. Maybe I'll buy some of the Vanguard TIPS fund in taxable or something too to provide a bit more liquidity for rebalancing. Dunno yet. But the bottom line is that my taxable:tax protected ratio keeps rising and so I keep moving asset classes out of tax protected and into taxable. TSM is already out. TISM already out. Small international is out. Small value is on its way out. Nominal bonds are mostly out (munis). Equity real estate is out. I think it's going to be TIPS, then REITS next. I've got the G fund in there that isn't available anywhere else and I've got my most tax-inefficient asset class (debt real estate) in there. But I figure the rest of the SV and TIPS will be out of there within another year or two at this rate. #firstworldproblems
are you concerned about the Tax drag of the Inflation adjustments for Tips held in Taxable vs. Tax-deferred?

WoodSpinner
Sure. I'd love to have more tax- protected space. But you go to war with the army you have. If I had something better to move into taxable I would move that instead of TIPS.
Fair enough…..

WoodSpinner
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by bridge2benefits »

Kevin M wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:15 pm Note that you could buy this TIPS tomorrow on the secondary market, and get the inflation adjustment increase between 5/16 (settlement) and 5/31 (auction settlement). You'd also know exactly what you're paying. The price might go up or down between now and auction.

EDIT: When this thread was started on May 8, ask yield was .229%, and today it was 0.204%, so price has gone up since then. Just an example of the uncertainty of the price over less than a week.
Thanks for the suggestion. I went ahead and purchased on the secondary market this morning and it went through at 0.232 yield, so a little cheaper than the auction price estimate from Fidelity yesterday. In the past I was hesitant to order on the secondary market, but this helps give me confidence. Of course the auction price might rise over the next few days, but after looking at negative real yields for so long, I'm pretty pleased to lock this down.

I guess one reason to use the auction is in cases where the purchase amount is too small to meet the minimums on the secondary market.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

bridge2benefits wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 10:26 am
Kevin M wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:15 pm Note that you could buy this TIPS tomorrow on the secondary market, and get the inflation adjustment increase between 5/16 (settlement) and 5/31 (auction settlement). You'd also know exactly what you're paying. The price might go up or down between now and auction.

EDIT: When this thread was started on May 8, ask yield was .229%, and today it was 0.204%, so price has gone up since then. Just an example of the uncertainty of the price over less than a week.
Thanks for the suggestion. I went ahead and purchased on the secondary market this morning and it went through at 0.232 yield, so a little cheaper than the auction price estimate from Fidelity yesterday. In the past I was hesitant to order on the secondary market, but this helps give me confidence. Of course the auction price might rise over the next few days, but after looking at negative real yields for so long, I'm pretty pleased to lock this down.

I guess one reason to use the auction is in cases where the purchase amount is too small to meet the minimums on the secondary market.
Cool!

Actually, you can almost always find minimum quantity 1 for Treasuries, but you need to look deeper than just the search result summary. At Vanguard you'd click "View more", and at Fidelity you'd click "Depth of book". These show you quotes for smaller quantities than you might see in the search results.

Currently at Fidelity I only see one quote for the 1/15/2032, but the min qty is 10 ($10K face value), which I think will work for most people.

If I look at the 7/15/2031, min qty in the search result summary is 100 with ask yield 0.209. If I click Depth of Book (I now see high yield of 0.204 for min qty 100, which I assume is more current), I see 0.191 for min qty 10, so only about 1 basis point lower yield. I see 0.178 for min qty 1, so about 2 basis points lower than highest yield. Sometimes the large/small-qty spread is less than a basis point.

If the large/small-qty spread is this low, I don't worry about getting a much better price at auction.

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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by rockstar »

I’m buying some in this auction.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by clcarter »

Can someone please explain what's going with a Re-opening vs what happens with a standard auction?

What causes a Re-opening?

Thanks
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by FactualFran »

clcarter wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 2:03 pm Can someone please explain what's going with a Re-opening vs what happens with a standard auction?

What causes a Re-opening?
The first paragraph of the answer at the TreasuryDirect web site is for the FAQWhat are reopenings, premiums, and accrued interest? at the TreasuryDirect web site is:
In a reopening, we auction additional amounts of a previously issued security. Reopened securities have the same maturity date and interest rate as the original securities, but a different issue date and usually a different price.
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Post by dual »

clcarter wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 2:03 pm Can someone please explain what's going with a Re-opening vs what happens with a standard auction?

What causes a Re-opening?

Thanks
See my post above. It is a standard practice of the Treasury
The 10-year TIPS is auctioned as an original issue in January and July. The 10-year TIPS is auctioned as a reopening in March, May, September, and November.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/m ... s/tips.htm
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by bridge2benefits »

Kevin M wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 12:13 pm Actually, you can almost always find minimum quantity 1 for Treasuries, but you need to look deeper than just the search result summary. At Vanguard you'd click "View more", and at Fidelity you'd click "Depth of book". These show you quotes for smaller quantities than you might see in the search results.

Currently at Fidelity I only see one quote for the 1/15/2032, but the min qty is 10 ($10K face value), which I think will work for most people.

If I look at the 7/15/2031, min qty in the search result summary is 100 with ask yield 0.209. If I click Depth of Book (I now see high yield of 0.204 for min qty 100, which I assume is more current), I see 0.191 for min qty 10, so only about 1 basis point lower yield. I see 0.178 for min qty 1, so about 2 basis points lower than highest yield. Sometimes the large/small-qty spread is less than a basis point.

If the large/small-qty spread is this low, I don't worry about getting a much better price at auction.
This is super helpful, thanks!
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Archean »

As we hope that the trend of increased real yields continues, calculating the choice of buying now or waiting for higher yields is interesting.

Assuming one has cash waiting in the wings (the case for me, due to some CDs that matured), what is the payback versus opportunity cost of buying now versus waiting?

Assuming 8% inflation continues through the end of the year, producing a loss on the waiting cash, I calculate that if the initial yield now is ~0.3%, it would have to exceed ~0.8% if I wait until the end of the year to buy a similar TIPS (several months short of a full 10 years) to make the wait worthwhile. This effect is even greater if one buys TIPS on the secondary market where the terms for 10-year TIPS are even shorter.

I suppose a real yield of 0.8% or greater might be possible by the end of the year, but I am inclined not to take that risk and purchase now, recognizing the cash I have is constantly loosing money. Have others made similar calculations/models?
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Robot Monster »

Archean wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:15 pm As we hope that the trend of increased real yields continues, calculating the choice of buying now or waiting for higher yields is interesting.

Assuming one has cash waiting in the wings (the case for me, due to some CDs that matured), what is the payback versus opportunity cost of buying now versus waiting?

Assuming 8% inflation continues through the end of the year, producing a loss on the waiting cash, I calculate that if the initial yield now is ~0.3%, it would have to exceed ~0.8% if I wait until the end of the year to buy a similar TIPS (several months short of a full 10 years) to make the wait worthwhile. This effect is even greater if one buys TIPS on the secondary market where the terms for 10-year TIPS are even shorter.

I suppose a real yield of 0.8% or greater might be possible by the end of the year, but I am inclined not to take that risk and purchase now, recognizing the cash I have is constantly loosing money. Have others made similar calculations/models?
Ray Dalio said that trying to time the stock market is harder 'than competing in the Olympics'. Is timing the TIPS market any easier, I wonder.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by White Coat Investor »

Archean wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:15 pm As we hope that the trend of increased real yields continues, calculating the choice of buying now or waiting for higher yields is interesting.
We make these choices all the time in investing, at least in the accumulation phase. My choice is always "both". I buy some now. And I'm sure I'll be buying some more later.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by AQ »

Should we wait until prior to auction day to place our orders, in case prices move a lot between?

Another question about 'real yield of TIPs': my understanding is that 'real yield' is calculated assuming no inflation adjustments/payments. Is this correct roughly?
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by tipswatcher »

Drew31 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:12 am So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.
I've been using this strategy, too, with both sales and purchases in the same traditional IRA account at Vanguard. I will be a buyer at this week's auction, and I raised the money by selling some of my SCHP holding. It's a "nibble" purchase, which I have been doing as real yields are rising. I'm fine with holding SCHP, but I do like the certainty of holding individual TIPS to maturity and just tracking par value x inflation index.

I just posted a preview of this auction for anyone who is interested: https://tipswatch.com/2022/05/15/this-w ... d-finally/
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

tipswatcher wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 7:43 am
Drew31 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:12 am So - I'm debating switching some of my TIPS SCHP ETF for a 10yr (well, 9yr 8mo) re-opening of the 10 yr TIPS set for auction on May 19. CUSIP 91282CDX6.
I've been using this strategy, too, with both sales and purchases in the same traditional IRA account at Vanguard. I will be a buyer at this week's auction, and I raised the money by selling some of my SCHP holding. It's a "nibble" purchase, which I have been doing as real yields are rising. I'm fine with holding SCHP, but I do like the certainty of holding individual TIPS to maturity and just tracking par value x inflation index.

I just posted a preview of this auction for anyone who is interested: https://tipswatch.com/2022/05/15/this-w ... d-finally/
Thanks for link. I read where you were going to have an article so planned to read it once posted.

I’m still trying to decide if I want to purchase some indiv TIPS off secondary with ~20 YTM. Early 40s and locked it the ~.6% real yield is enticing.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by rockstar »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:24 pm
Archean wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:15 pm As we hope that the trend of increased real yields continues, calculating the choice of buying now or waiting for higher yields is interesting.

Assuming one has cash waiting in the wings (the case for me, due to some CDs that matured), what is the payback versus opportunity cost of buying now versus waiting?

Assuming 8% inflation continues through the end of the year, producing a loss on the waiting cash, I calculate that if the initial yield now is ~0.3%, it would have to exceed ~0.8% if I wait until the end of the year to buy a similar TIPS (several months short of a full 10 years) to make the wait worthwhile. This effect is even greater if one buys TIPS on the secondary market where the terms for 10-year TIPS are even shorter.

I suppose a real yield of 0.8% or greater might be possible by the end of the year, but I am inclined not to take that risk and purchase now, recognizing the cash I have is constantly loosing money. Have others made similar calculations/models?
Ray Dalio said that trying to time the stock market is harder 'than competing in the Olympics'. Is timing the TIPS market any easier, I wonder.
What's hard to time here other than waiting for positive real yields?
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Robot Monster »

rockstar wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 1:28 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:24 pm
Archean wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:15 pm As we hope that the trend of increased real yields continues, calculating the choice of buying now or waiting for higher yields is interesting.

Assuming one has cash waiting in the wings (the case for me, due to some CDs that matured), what is the payback versus opportunity cost of buying now versus waiting?

Assuming 8% inflation continues through the end of the year, producing a loss on the waiting cash, I calculate that if the initial yield now is ~0.3%, it would have to exceed ~0.8% if I wait until the end of the year to buy a similar TIPS (several months short of a full 10 years) to make the wait worthwhile. This effect is even greater if one buys TIPS on the secondary market where the terms for 10-year TIPS are even shorter.

I suppose a real yield of 0.8% or greater might be possible by the end of the year, but I am inclined not to take that risk and purchase now, recognizing the cash I have is constantly loosing money. Have others made similar calculations/models?
Ray Dalio said that trying to time the stock market is harder 'than competing in the Olympics'. Is timing the TIPS market any easier, I wonder.
What's hard to time here other than waiting for positive real yields?
We already have positive real yields, but the question is, should people hold out for better positive real yields, or buy now? (At least, that's the question for those timing the TIPS market.)
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

For those debating waiting for the auction vs. buying before then on the secondary market, some perspective on recent yield/price volatility, here is the market yield on the 10-year constant maturity Treasury (CMT), inflation-indexed, from the beginning of May through Thursday:

Image

The Friday yield was 0.24%, so down one basis point.

The trend has been up, but there have been a couple of fairly large one-day or two-day drops, including down 13 basis points on Wednesday.

Note that Treasuries CMT yields are based on bid quotes, for which price will be lower and yield will be higher than ask quotes. All yields I've mentioned in this thread and others for actual Treasuries (not CMTs) are ask quotes, because I'm a buyer, not a seller. And these quotes are for a Treasury you can actually buy (you can't buy a CMT).

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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by rockstar »

Robot Monster wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 1:34 pm
rockstar wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 1:28 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:24 pm
Archean wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 3:15 pm As we hope that the trend of increased real yields continues, calculating the choice of buying now or waiting for higher yields is interesting.

Assuming one has cash waiting in the wings (the case for me, due to some CDs that matured), what is the payback versus opportunity cost of buying now versus waiting?

Assuming 8% inflation continues through the end of the year, producing a loss on the waiting cash, I calculate that if the initial yield now is ~0.3%, it would have to exceed ~0.8% if I wait until the end of the year to buy a similar TIPS (several months short of a full 10 years) to make the wait worthwhile. This effect is even greater if one buys TIPS on the secondary market where the terms for 10-year TIPS are even shorter.

I suppose a real yield of 0.8% or greater might be possible by the end of the year, but I am inclined not to take that risk and purchase now, recognizing the cash I have is constantly loosing money. Have others made similar calculations/models?
Ray Dalio said that trying to time the stock market is harder 'than competing in the Olympics'. Is timing the TIPS market any easier, I wonder.
What's hard to time here other than waiting for positive real yields?
We already have positive real yields, but the question is, should people hold out for better positive real yields, or buy now? (At least, that's the question for those timing the TIPS market.)
I guess you can DCA into it if you think they're going higher.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

Kevin M wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 4:31 pm <snip>
The Friday yield was 0.24%, so down one basis point.
CMT real yield down to 0.20% today. Ask yield quote from Fidelity for the 1/15/2032 was 0.17% and bid yield was 0.20% (which matches the CMT yield).

The YTD CMT real yield peak was 0.34% on May 10 (6 days ago

EDIT: Fidelity shows expected yield = 0.154 (%) and Vanguard shows indicative yield = 0.165 (%). Vanguard is closer to Fidelity ask quote of 0.168%.

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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Drew31 »

I had debated whether I was going to buy any more at this auction, but unless yields do something crazy next couple days I think I'm going to stand pat for now with what I purchased on the secondary market as I got a decent chunk and I still feel I need to figure out precisely how I want all these to fit together in my portfolio.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by tipswatcher »

Drew31 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:03 pm I had debated whether I was going to buy any more at this auction, but unless yields do something crazy next couple days I think I'm going to stand pat for now with what I purchased on the secondary market as I got a decent chunk and I still feel I need to figure out precisely how I want all these to fit together in my portfolio.
Real yields dipped again Monday, and this one is now trading with a real yield at 0.16%, a couple basis points lower than Friday. Recent TIPS auctions have consistently come in with a real yield a little higher than market. Eventually, that trend will break. The secondary market is lightly traded. The Fed is no longer buying, and will soon begin rolling its inventory off. I'll be a buyer, whatever, but it is not a "bet the house" investment.
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by bpg1234 »

Any latest perspectives on whether to buy this in the secondary market (presently .214 indicative yield) or wait for auction at this point?
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

Yield on the 1/15/2032 is up a bit today from yesterday. Based on Fidelity quotes right now:

Ask yield (best, min qty 10) is 0.232% and bid yield is 0.267%. Expected auction yield 0.233%.

How about half now and half at auction?
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by bpg1234 »

Kevin M wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:08 pm Yield on the 1/15/2032 is up a bit today from yesterday. Based on Fidelity quotes right now:

Ask yield (best, min qty 10) is 0.232% and bid yield is 0.267%. Expected auction yield 0.233%.

How about half now and half at auction?
Kevin,

Actually good idea so only half wrong or half right either way lol.

This is our first-ever individual TIPS purchase and as retirees mainly looking for some additional inflation protection outside of iBonds which we have a couple hundred K in at this point so is $100K total here ($50K each with secondary and auction) thought to be too much for our first acquisitions or should we instead look to DCA in over time as rates may potentially increase with say $10K per purchase? Thanks in advance as usual of any perspective you may have.

-bpg
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Kevin M
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Re: 10Y TIPS May Re-Opening

Post by Kevin M »

bpg1234 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 3:43 pm
Kevin M wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:08 pm Yield on the 1/15/2032 is up a bit today from yesterday. Based on Fidelity quotes right now:

Ask yield (best, min qty 10) is 0.232% and bid yield is 0.267%. Expected auction yield 0.233%.

How about half now and half at auction?
Kevin,

Actually good idea so only half wrong or half right either way lol.

This is our first-ever individual TIPS purchase and as retirees mainly looking for some additional inflation protection outside of iBonds which we have a couple hundred K in at this point so is $100K total here ($50K each with secondary and auction) thought to be too much for our first acquisitions or should we instead look to DCA in over time as rates may potentially increase with say $10K per purchase? Thanks in advance as usual of any perspective you may have.

-bpg
Nobody knows, but personally I am easing into both TIPS and nominal Treasuries, but at shorter durations than the 10-year. Of course many recommend going all in on your desired asset allocation now.

About a year ago I bought 10 each of the 7/15/2023 TIPS at -2.89% and the 7/15/2023 nominal at 0.16%, just to see what would happen. Today I bought another 10 of each, with TIPS yield = -2.67% and nominal = 2.27%. So TIPS yield up a bit and nominal up quite a bit (I have bought other TIPS and nominals lately too). And they now are closer to 1-year maturity than about 2-year maturity at purchase.

The breakeven inflation rate (BEI) was 4.18% for my purchases a year ago. Since nominal yield has gone up much more than TIPS yield, the BEI for these purchases is 4.93%.

In nominal terms, the TIPS bought a year ago has a positive gain, while the nominal is negative. Not surprising given recent inflation and larger increases in nominal yields.

Kevin
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