What a Great Moment to Invest!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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William Million
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What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by William Million »

After several tough investing years, when investors bemoaned how everything was overpriced,it seems we now have almost the perfect entry point for stocks and bonds:

- Many bond funds haven't reached levels this low since the Great Recession. Last time Vanguard Total Bond Index was this low was 2008.

- Some of the most dynamic companies are down 50% or so. NASDAQ has lost a quarter of its value. Among great companies,you can take your pick. For instance, Starbucks pays 2.5% dividend, after having steadily raised its dividend since 2010 from a nickel to.49. Does anyone seriously believe that company won't be profitably selling coffee 20 years from now?

- Want more international equity or REIT exposure? The US dollar is now almost at parity with the Euro. Amazing buying power.

- As soon as inflation tumbles, investors will flee TIPS with a vengeance.We might well soon see +2% real rates.

-10 year treasuries are back to where they were in 2011. If they rise to 5%, 1st time since 2007, they could prove a reliable long-term portfolio stabilizer.

In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be strategically buying.
Last edited by William Million on Sat May 07, 2022 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
59Gibson
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by 59Gibson »

You've sold me. Buying today should look mighty good in 2032. How will it look next month or next May perhaps insane. As long as you're a long termer or forever..buy.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by shelanman »

Oh, no! A post that's upbeat about buying? That means the bottom isn't in yet!

(I know, it doesn't actually work that way)
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by z3r0c00l »

I tend to agree with you. How about Verizon at a P/E ratio of 9, paying a 5% dividend, shares back to 2001 levels...
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
What should we be zealously buying? Total Stock index funds? Developed Markets? Emerging Markets? Small Cap Value? Growth funds? Intermediate bond funds? Please elaborate on your enthusiastic post at the top of this thread.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by BusterScruggs »

Stay the course. You may be right. You could also be terribly wrong.

I remember the early 80’s inflation did not go away quickly and Paul Volcker slammed on the brakes pretty hard, unlike now.

We can’t control it so stick to a plan. And actionably, stay hopeful because over time the market will be in your favor.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Normchad »

I like your spirit! I did in fact buy today; I had a few bucks sitting in the settlement fund, so I hit some more VTSAX.

Since people have been bemoaning the PE of the S&P, where does it stand today? Is it just like 32 - 15%?

How low does it have to go before we can stop saying future lower returns are a certainty?
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Hebell »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm
- As soon as inflation tumbles, investors will flee TIPS with a vengeance.We might well soon see +2% real yield.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by TheTimeLord »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm After several tough investing years, when investors bemoaned how everything was overpriced,it seems we now have almost the perfect entry point for stocks and bonds:

- Many bond funds haven't reached levels this low since the Great Recession. Last time Vanguard Total Bond Index was this low was 2008.

- Some of the most dynamic companies are down 50% or so. NASDAQ has lost a quarter of its value. Among great companies,you can take your pick. For instance, Starbucks pays 2.5% dividend, after having steadily raised its dividend since 2010 from a nickel to.49. Does anyone seriously believe that company won't be profitably selling coffee 20 years from now?

- Want more international equity or REIT exposure? The US dollar is now almost at parity with the Euro. Amazing buying power.

- As soon as inflation tumbles, investors will flee TIPS with a vengeance.We might well soon see +2% real rates.

-10 year treasuries are back to where they were in 2011. If they rise to 5%, 1st time since 2007, they could prove a reliable long-term portfolio stabilizer.

In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
Shares were cheaper 13 months ago and 3 years ago the S&P was roughly 2,500. I thought March-April in 2020 was a pretty good forward investment climate. I won't even mention the end of December in 2018. There have been lots of great times to invest over the past 3+ years.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by nydoc »

Good to know. I have been buying every week since 2016. No worries.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Random Musings »

When I read the phrase "perfect entry point" it sounds like market timing. But the OP hedges that later by saying the best forward investing environment will be in the next year.

Although nominal bonds have taken a beating, I would not be surprised to see the 10 year to get to at least 4%, I expect inflation to be more sticky and hence will continue to overweight ST real bonds and also went the gift box route on I bonds for 2023. When the Fed starts jawboning about reducing rates and purchasing bonds, then I'll start leaning towards nominals. Who said bonds couldn't be exciting.

Equity wise, tilting towards value both on the domestic and international side but my loading is modest.

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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by William Million »

BusterScruggs wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:59 pm Stay the course. You may be right. You could also be terribly wrong.

I remember the early 80’s inflation did not go away quickly and Paul Volcker slammed on the brakes pretty hard, unlike now.

We can’t control it so stick to a plan. And actionably, stay hopeful because over time the market will be in your favor.
Yes, I could be wrong. But I prefer to own great companies at a time of high inflation.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Little_Carmine »

All this talk of buying stocks at rock-bottom prices during a deep recession only really works if you’re fortunate enough to not get laid off. This tends to happen in recessions.

If I get to keep working, I’ll be gobbling up some sweet VTI.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by ivgrivchuck »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
It could or it could not. What you describe is one scenario. Another scenario is that we are just going through a paradigm change and entering a period of like 1970s.

Stocks are still very expensive in historical standards:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Tech-boom has really benefited from very low interest rates. Unless we go back to those rates, the rapid growth days might be over...

The best thing to do as usual is to stick with your long term investment plan...
Last edited by ivgrivchuck on Fri May 06, 2022 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by ivgrivchuck »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:02 pm Yes, I could be wrong. But I prefer to own great companies at a time of high inflation.
How do you define a great company?
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Random Musings »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:25 pm
William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:02 pm Yes, I could be wrong. But I prefer to own great companies at a time of high inflation.
How do you define a great company?
They are the ones who outperform the lousy companies. :wink:

RM
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by 2pedals »

Interesting thread and post but I don't share your view about people fleeing TIPS, especially short-term TIPS.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Nathan Drake »

People should be cautious at thinking that just because we've had a 15%+ correction, that it's a "great time" to invest in all assets, particularly VTI which has had an enormous bull run the past 10 years largely due to increases in valuation and margin expansion to historical levels.

Both margins and valuations go through cycles of highs and lows, and if inflation and the large tech businesses that comprise of VTI have simply hit their natural growth curve flattening, you will see an extended re-valuation of these firms to more normal P/E ratios. This happened precisely in the 00s when Microsoft, a highly profitable and growing company, saw extremely poor returns and a re-valuation back to fundamental levels as the business matured.

While the bull market can continue to march on for the next ten years in US TSM, there are possibly some major headwinds in terms of valuations and margin compressions that could eliminate any return despite these businesses doing quite well in terms of earnings. The 00s weren't bad for earnings growth, yet stock returns were terrible.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by secondopinion »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm After several tough investing years, when investors bemoaned how everything was overpriced,it seems we now have almost the perfect entry point for stocks and bonds:

- Many bond funds haven't reached levels this low since the Great Recession. Last time Vanguard Total Bond Index was this low was 2008.

- Some of the most dynamic companies are down 50% or so. NASDAQ has lost a quarter of its value. Among great companies,you can take your pick. For instance, Starbucks pays 2.5% dividend, after having steadily raised its dividend since 2010 from a nickel to.49. Does anyone seriously believe that company won't be profitably selling coffee 20 years from now?

- Want more international equity or REIT exposure? The US dollar is now almost at parity with the Euro. Amazing buying power.

- As soon as inflation tumbles, investors will flee TIPS with a vengeance.We might well soon see +2% real rates.

-10 year treasuries are back to where they were in 2011. If they rise to 5%, 1st time since 2007, they could prove a reliable long-term portfolio stabilizer.

In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
- As in bond yield? This is the only "price" that matters in bonds.

- I rode the upward swing and sold a bit as according to my concave asset allocation. I am buy more stocks right now, so the dip is great; especially when bonds dropped their yield severely in 2020 as to make my singleton add-on CD the star of the show (when it was original meant for emergency money); when it matures, I will have a lot of capital to invest should things get worse.

- What does the parity matter here? I have always bought international, so I doubt I am missing anything.

- Looking at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII30, we could maybe see resistance at the current real rate or maybe see 1.5% or more. Who knows?

- Yields without viewing the real rates is not helpful. But if we happen to see 3%-3.5% annually inflation for ten years and that 1.5-2% real yield, then 5%-6% is certainly possible. Not likely, but possible.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by whodidntante »

I haven't heard anyone say "bonds are for safety" on this forum for a while. It remains to be seen if people learned that just ain't so.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by secondopinion »

whodidntante wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:29 pm I haven't heard anyone say "bonds are for safety" on this forum for a while. It remains to be seen if people learned that just ain't so.
I have said this from the beginning: “define safety”. I not only reject the notation that short-term bonds are any safer than long-term bonds (because it depends on whether you are talking now or in the long future, provided matching the denomination of expenses) but also that some credit risk on the bond side is not harmful.

I found the mantra misinterpreted all the time and now it is biting the investors.
Last edited by secondopinion on Fri May 06, 2022 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by retireIn2020 »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm After several tough investing years, when investors bemoaned how everything was overpriced,it seems we now have almost the perfect entry point for stocks and bonds:

- Many bond funds haven't reached levels this low since the Great Recession. Last time Vanguard Total Bond Index was this low was 2008.

- Some of the most dynamic companies are down 50% or so. NASDAQ has lost a quarter of its value. Among great companies,you can take your pick. For instance, Starbucks pays 2.5% dividend, after having steadily raised its dividend since 2010 from a nickel to.49. Does anyone seriously believe that company won't be profitably selling coffee 20 years from now?

- Want more international equity or REIT exposure? The US dollar is now almost at parity with the Euro. Amazing buying power.

- As soon as inflation tumbles, investors will flee TIPS with a vengeance.We might well soon see +2% real rates.

-10 year treasuries are back to where they were in 2011. If they rise to 5%, 1st time since 2007, they could prove a reliable long-term portfolio stabilizer.

In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
Sorry, I don't think we've had "several tough investing years", maybe you could elaborate?

As far as "a great moment to invest". Reminds me of a question I was once asked, "When is the best time to invest?" I responded, 20 years ago! I followed up with "If you didn't do it then, now is the best time!"
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by William Million »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:24 pm
William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
It could or it could not. What you describe is one scenario. Another scenario is that we are just going through a paradigm change and entering a period of like 1970s.

Stocks are still very expensive in historical standards:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Tech-boom has really benefited from very low interest rates. Unless we go back to those rates, the rapid growth days might be over...

The best thing to do as usual is to stick with your long term investment plan...
Stocks are very expensive now if you use PE10. My question is, why on earth would any sane person use such a discredited metric as PE10? You could have missed the bull markets of the past 10 years.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Nathan Drake »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:12 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:24 pm
William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
It could or it could not. What you describe is one scenario. Another scenario is that we are just going through a paradigm change and entering a period of like 1970s.

Stocks are still very expensive in historical standards:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Tech-boom has really benefited from very low interest rates. Unless we go back to those rates, the rapid growth days might be over...

The best thing to do as usual is to stick with your long term investment plan...
Stocks are very expensive now if you use PE10. My question is, why on earth would any sane person use such a discredited metric as PE10? You could have missed the bull markets of the past 10 years.
Not really, PE10 was low 10 years ago, and somewhat reasonable even if a tad elevated up until a few years ago
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by 000 »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm What a Great Moment to Invest!
Buckle up, we may be far from the bottom. :twisted:
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by ivgrivchuck »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:12 pm Stocks are very expensive now if you use PE10. My question is, why on earth would any sane person use such a discredited metric as PE10? You could have missed the bull markets of the past 10 years.
There are pros and cons in every metric. Earnings fluctuate a lot year over year, CAPE evens them out. 1/CAPE has been a good predictor of future stock market returns in the past, and while it might be a data mined artifact, I still think there is something in it...

I'm not saying that anybody should base their investment decisions on the current CAPE values...

And regarding missing the bull market run, CAPE stayed under 30 until around 2018.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by William Million »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:21 pm
William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:12 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:24 pm
William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
It could or it could not. What you describe is one scenario. Another scenario is that we are just going through a paradigm change and entering a period of like 1970s.

Stocks are still very expensive in historical standards:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Tech-boom has really benefited from very low interest rates. Unless we go back to those rates, the rapid growth days might be over...

The best thing to do as usual is to stick with your long term investment plan...
Stocks are very expensive now if you use PE10. My question is, why on earth would any sane person use such a discredited metric as PE10? You could have missed the bull markets of the past 10 years.
Not really, PE10 was low 10 years ago, and somewhat reasonable even if a tad elevated up until a few years ago
Shiller forecast the bear in 2013 https://www.businessinsider.com/robert- ... cks-2013-1

and in 2015 https://www.ft.com/content/85d0becc-58c ... 226830d644

and in 2017 https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... er-2017-09

All based on PE10.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Jaylat »

I admire your enthusiasm, but feel we have a long way to go to reach bottom.

I doubt that 3% 10 year treasuries are going to be sufficient to tame 9%+ inflation. But we'll see...
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Nathan Drake »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:47 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:21 pm
William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:12 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 9:24 pm
William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be zealously buying.
It could or it could not. What you describe is one scenario. Another scenario is that we are just going through a paradigm change and entering a period of like 1970s.

Stocks are still very expensive in historical standards:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Tech-boom has really benefited from very low interest rates. Unless we go back to those rates, the rapid growth days might be over...

The best thing to do as usual is to stick with your long term investment plan...
Stocks are very expensive now if you use PE10. My question is, why on earth would any sane person use such a discredited metric as PE10? You could have missed the bull markets of the past 10 years.
Not really, PE10 was low 10 years ago, and somewhat reasonable even if a tad elevated up until a few years ago
Shiller forecast the bear in 2013 https://www.businessinsider.com/robert- ... cks-2013-1

and in 2015 https://www.ft.com/content/85d0becc-58c ... 226830d644

and in 2017 https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... er-2017-09

All based on PE10.
That’s Shiller, he’s since taken to the CAPE10 fair value which accounts for interest rates
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by freyj6 »

I’ve been enjoying deploying my dry powder during this so far. It’ll be a lot less fun if I run out and the market tanks another 20 or 30 percent :?
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by ivgrivchuck »

freyj6 wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 12:37 am I’ve been enjoying deploying my dry powder during this so far. It’ll be a lot less fun if I run out and the market tanks another 20 or 30 percent :?
That's the challenge with the timing. Maybe you got it right this time, maybe you didn't..
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by DonIce »

Had lots of "dry powder" to put in in March 2020 and that turned out great. Unfortunately, no dry powder this time around.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Stocks pretty much doubled 2019-2021, so why is it now is a great moment to invest?
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by willthrill81 »

Correct! I've often said in prior years that accumulators should be begging for times like this.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by muffins14 »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 11:03 am But it’s more expensive since it’s auto invest.
Please do not continue promoting this idea to others in the forum
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Samuel Glover »

I continue on the path of investing for income, so I don't have to rely on the market price of stocks for my retirement. I am well on the way toward retiring in 3-4 years and living off of Social Security, dividends, and bond interest, with room to spare.

John Bogle urged retirees to tilt toward blue chip dividend-paying stocks in retirement. He advised them to rely on dividends, not the speculative market. I agree. Therefore, ups and downs don't upset me too much.

So all that being said, it's always a great time to invest.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by donaldfair71 »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 11:03 am Correct! I've often said in prior years that accumulators should be begging for times like this.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Candor »

I always enjoy putting money to work but especially so in a down market.
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by anon_investor »

Samuel Glover wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 11:22 am I continue on the path of investing for income, so I don't have to rely on the market price of stocks for my retirement. I am well on the way toward retiring in 3-4 years and living off of Social Security, dividends, and bond interest, with room to spare.

John Bogle urged retirees to tilt toward blue chip dividend-paying stocks in retirement. He advised them to rely on dividends, not the speculative market. I agree. Therefore, ups and downs don't upset me too much.

So all that being said, it's always a great time to invest.
What do you invest in?
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by abuss368 »

Along our investing journey, we buy regardless of what the markets are doing. Staying the course works! More to the point, I would agree, things are cheaper and more on sale than before.

Many years from now, investors who bought and stayed the course will be thankful. Companies earnings growth and dividends will be higher and thus the overall values.

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Beensabu
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Beensabu »

You're unreasonably cheery. Now you've invited a multitude of angry DMs a year from now. Have fun with those.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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BuyAndHoldOn
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by BuyAndHoldOn »

I agree and am keeping this thread open along with my other saved browser session pages at the moment.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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nedsaid
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by nedsaid »

William Million wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:22 pm After several tough investing years, when investors bemoaned how everything was overpriced,it seems we now have almost the perfect entry point for stocks and bonds:

- Many bond funds haven't reached levels this low since the Great Recession. Last time Vanguard Total Bond Index was this low was 2008.

- Some of the most dynamic companies are down 50% or so. NASDAQ has lost a quarter of its value. Among great companies,you can take your pick. For instance, Starbucks pays 2.5% dividend, after having steadily raised its dividend since 2010 from a nickel to.49. Does anyone seriously believe that company won't be profitably selling coffee 20 years from now?

- Want more international equity or REIT exposure? The US dollar is now almost at parity with the Euro. Amazing buying power.

- As soon as inflation tumbles, investors will flee TIPS with a vengeance.We might well soon see +2% real rates.

-10 year treasuries are back to where they were in 2011. If they rise to 5%, 1st time since 2007, they could prove a reliable long-term portfolio stabilizer.

In sum, the next year could bring the best forward investment climate in a decade or more. War in Ukraine, high inflation, lockdowns in China, COVID weariness, etc have spooked many investors when they should be strategically buying.
I do like your optimism and I do believe there is always opportunity if you keep your eyes open. Belief affects perception, a good reason to be an optimist. If you are a pessimist, you tend to see only problems. Conversely, if you are an optimist, you tend to see opportunity even when times look gloomy.

Of course, we don't know the future. Stocks can go down even more in bear markets and when pessimism dominates and stocks can advance in bull markets and during times of euphoria. In other words, market trends can last longer than we can imagine. That said, longer term optimism serves investors better than pessimism.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by TomatoTomahto »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 11:03 am Correct! I've often said in prior years that accumulators should be begging for times like this.
We are still accumulators, but relative to our existing portfolio new funds aren’t moving the needle much. I’m hoping that we recover before we become decumulators.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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willthrill81
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by willthrill81 »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 11:52 am
willthrill81 wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 11:03 am Correct! I've often said in prior years that accumulators should be begging for times like this.
We are still accumulators, but relative to our existing portfolio new funds aren’t moving the needle much. I’m hoping that we recover before we become decumulators.
Even if the additional contributions aren't significant, the mere fact that you experience poor returns now vs. retirement is a significant benefit.
“Good and ill have not changed since yesteryear; nor are they one thing among Elves and Dwarves and another among Men.” J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings
itispossible
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by itispossible »

Pre-pandemic market cap of Apple and Microsoft were ~$1.2T.
Now ~$2.2T.
JohnDoh
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by JohnDoh »

willthrill81 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:04 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 11:52 am
willthrill81 wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 11:03 am Correct! I've often said in prior years that accumulators should be begging for times like this.
We are still accumulators, but relative to our existing portfolio new funds aren’t moving the needle much. I’m hoping that we recover before we become decumulators.
Even if the additional contributions aren't significant, the mere fact that you experience poor returns now vs. retirement is a significant benefit.
OTOH, I wonder if the fact that an ever-increasing share of the population is in retirement (and thus with relatively shortened time horizons) and actually living off their portfolios, will affect the course of events. It seems there's a greater chance of panic selling, etc. In any case, a 50/50 retiree would seem to be in a boatload of trouble at the moment.
Nowizard
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Nowizard »

True for long term investors. Some are smiling based on their circumstances since lowering tides do not stick all boats in the mud!

Tim
Tom_T
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Re: What a Great Moment to Invest!

Post by Tom_T »

JohnDoh wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:27 am
willthrill81 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:04 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 11:52 am
willthrill81 wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 11:03 am Correct! I've often said in prior years that accumulators should be begging for times like this.
We are still accumulators, but relative to our existing portfolio new funds aren’t moving the needle much. I’m hoping that we recover before we become decumulators.
Even if the additional contributions aren't significant, the mere fact that you experience poor returns now vs. retirement is a significant benefit.
OTOH, I wonder if the fact that an ever-increasing share of the population is in retirement (and thus with relatively shortened time horizons) and actually living off their portfolios, will affect the course of events. It seems there's a greater chance of panic selling, etc. In any case, a 50/50 retiree would seem to be in a boatload of trouble at the moment.
Depends on how much of their expenses are covered by Social Security. They might not be living off their portfolios, or only partially doing so.
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