Callan Periodic Table of Investing

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Gaston
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Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Gaston »

Always fun to glance at. Now updated with 2021. And remember: diversify, diversify and diversify.

https://www.callan.com/b8b996a8-832a-4f ... 2cb3de86c4
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z0r
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by z0r »

https://www.callan.com/research/2021-cl ... dic-table/

they have a thing set up to make pdf links only work once, here's a better link
montanagirl
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by montanagirl »

Could not get the thing to work. :confused
bling
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by bling »

it's certainly a great graphic to show that nobody knows nothing. however, the problem is that all the boxes are the same size and it doesn't really call out well that 20% is not the same as -20%.
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

At first I thought you meant Erin Callan…
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telemark
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by telemark »

z0r wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:30 pm https://www.callan.com/research/2021-cl ... dic-table/

they have a thing set up to make pdf links only work once, here's a better link
That worked after I set Firefox to allow popups for callan.com.

Was cash really the best asset class in 2018? Why do I not remember that?
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by UpperNwGuy »

I've never found this table to tell me anything useful. I would rather see a display of 10, 20, and 30 year CAGR for each asset class.
TropikThunder
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by TropikThunder »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:22 pm I've never found this table to tell me anything useful. I would rather see a display of 10, 20, and 30 year CAGR for each asset class.
IMO that’s only helpful for modeling what would happen if you invested 100% of your money at one point in time.
Last edited by TropikThunder on Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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whodidntante
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by whodidntante »

I love all the complaints about what the table is not. :happy
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neurosphere
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by neurosphere »

Here's my take on what this table illustrates. That it's usesless to use previous short-term returns of a particular asset class to decide on changes for the future. Relatedly, the better an asset class has done in the recent past, the worse it is likely to do in the future.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
WhiteMaxima
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by WhiteMaxima »

Just buy VT or VTI + VXUS.
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Beensabu
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Beensabu »

The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns conveys the strong case for diversification across asset classes
(stocks vs. bonds), capitalizations (large vs. small), and equity markets (U.S. vs. global ex-U.S.).
It's literally right on there.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Wannaretireearly
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Wannaretireearly »

neurosphere wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:16 pm Here's my take on what this table illustrates. That it's usesless to use previous short-term returns of a particular asset class to decide on changes for the future. Relatedly, the better an asset class has done in the recent past, the worse it is likely to do in the future.
+1
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firebirdparts
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by firebirdparts »

bling wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:24 pm it's certainly a great graphic to show that nobody knows nothing. however, the problem is that all the boxes are the same size and it doesn't really call out well that 20% is not the same as -20%.
they made a version with a line through it at 0% return, but they decided to stop doing that for free. It didn't show you much more, but it was some more.
This time is the same
jsprag
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by jsprag »

Here's the data presented a few other ways, including performance relative to a 60/40 Boglehead 3-fund portfolio

Annual performance of each asset class with a better sense of scale:
Image

Hypothetical growth of $10K invested at end of 2021
Image

CAGR since end of 2021
Image


Data and code at Github
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Harry Livermore
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Harry Livermore »

jsprag wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:47 am
Here's the data presented a few other ways, including performance relative to a 60/40 Boglehead 3-fund portfolio
I like that first chart very much.
Where did you get that?
Cheers
bling
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by bling »

jsprag wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:47 am Here's the data presented a few other ways, including performance relative to a 60/40 Boglehead 3-fund portfolio

....

Data and code at Github
very cool, looks like an original project.

think there's a bug here. looking at the graphs you'd conclude that emerging markets was the best investment of the past decade, and we all know that's not true.

edit: misread, graph goes back 20 years, it's accurate.
Last edited by bling on Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Nowizard
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Nowizard »

Ah, the search for certainty where none exists continues! Isn't it fun to consider that some find the chart useless, others may use it actionably?

Tim
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by UpperNwGuy »

bling wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:26 am think there's a bug here. looking at the graphs you'd conclude that emerging markets was the best investment of the past decade, and we all know that's not true.
I don't think there's a bug. I just did a quick comparison of emerging markets to total US for 2001-present using Portfolio Visualizer, and I got the same results.
bling
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by bling »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:46 am
bling wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:26 am think there's a bug here. looking at the graphs you'd conclude that emerging markets was the best investment of the past decade, and we all know that's not true.
I don't think there's a bug. I just did a quick comparison of emerging markets to total US for 2001-present using Portfolio Visualizer, and I got the same results.
:oops: misread, thought it was 10 years instead of 20 years. recency bias is real. i own EM at market weight and all that comes to mind when is how terrible the returns have been the past 10 years.
jsprag
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by jsprag »

Harry Livermore wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:33 am
jsprag wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:47 am
Here's the data presented a few other ways, including performance relative to a 60/40 Boglehead 3-fund portfolio
I like that first chart very much.
Where did you get that?
Cheers
Thanks, Harry
- Category return data is from the Callan chart
- Three-fund data is from Portfolio Visualizer based on a 48% US TSM, 12% Ex-US, 40% US TBM portfolio (ratios taken from 60/40 example in wiki)

Chart construction is mine; you can find code at Github if anybody wants to QA and/or adapt.
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Harry Livermore
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Harry Livermore »

jsprag wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:05 pm
Chart construction is mine
Very nice.
Cheers
beCalm
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by beCalm »

Callan table is pretty but I don't get any insights from it. Personally I don't need a table to tell me that no asset class has a straight line to the moon.
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zincTwo
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by zincTwo »

beCalm wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:00 am Callan table is pretty but I don't get any insights from it. Personally I don't need a table to tell me that no asset class has a straight line to the moon.
It does remind us to diversify, and not to ignore some asset classes that can contribute over 20,20+ years to increase performance over just a single US-total stock, especially if the TSM doesn't include those classes in meaningful ways (ex. International, REITS, EM, small).
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Mel Lindauer
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Mel Lindauer »

And with all of those return categories listed, I still couldn't find "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps". Did I just dream up that category? :confused
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Robin1234
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by Robin1234 »

Is there a table mapping Callan table to BH recommended/preferred ETFs?
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zincTwo
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by zincTwo »

Robin1234 wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:49 pm Is there a table mapping Callan table to BH recommended/preferred ETFs?
Here is a sample list for various factors from the Merriman Foundation. For Vanguard-ites, you can use this list... if willing to branch beyond VG, then here is another list
VanGar+Goyle
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by VanGar+Goyle »

jsprag wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:47 am Here's the data presented a few other ways, including performance relative to a 60/40 Boglehead 3-fund portfolio

Annual performance of each asset class with a better sense of scale:
Image
Not bad, but if you added colored lines linking each asset class over time, you would get a feeling
for how often the lines cross. I see several times where a class basically goes from first to last and back to first.
This might more easily show that chasing the previous winner often loses the next year.
Also might use log scale on the performance axis.
jsprag
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by jsprag »

VanGar+Goyle wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:56 pm
jsprag wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:47 am Here's the data presented a few other ways, including performance relative to a 60/40 Boglehead 3-fund portfolio

Annual performance of each asset class with a better sense of scale:
Image
Not bad, but if you added colored lines linking each asset class over time, you would get a feeling
for how often the lines cross. I see several times where a class basically goes from first to last and back to first.
This might more easily show that chasing the previous winner often loses the next year.
Also might use log scale on the performance axis.
Colored lines - already done; check the GitHub link provided (spoiler: it does not look as good as one might hope)

Log scale - feel free; check the GitHub link provided :wink:
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willthrill81
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing

Post by willthrill81 »

Here's what I said about this awful table in a prior thread last year.
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:26 am I suppose that I'm one of the few around here that doesn't like the Callan table at all. It condenses ratio data, which carry the most information of any type of data, to ordinal data, which conveys far less information. And I'm not aware of any compelling reason for why this valuable information should be removed. At the very least, the table can lead investors to erroneous conclusions about the performance of various asset classes.
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