Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Always fun to glance at. Now updated with 2021. And remember: diversify, diversify and diversify.
https://www.callan.com/b8b996a8-832a-4f ... 2cb3de86c4
https://www.callan.com/b8b996a8-832a-4f ... 2cb3de86c4
“My opinions are just that - opinions.”
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
https://www.callan.com/research/2021-cl ... dic-table/
they have a thing set up to make pdf links only work once, here's a better link
they have a thing set up to make pdf links only work once, here's a better link
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Could not get the thing to work.
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
it's certainly a great graphic to show that nobody knows nothing. however, the problem is that all the boxes are the same size and it doesn't really call out well that 20% is not the same as -20%.
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
At first I thought you meant Erin Callan…
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
That worked after I set Firefox to allow popups for callan.com.z0r wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:30 pm https://www.callan.com/research/2021-cl ... dic-table/
they have a thing set up to make pdf links only work once, here's a better link
Was cash really the best asset class in 2018? Why do I not remember that?
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
I've never found this table to tell me anything useful. I would rather see a display of 10, 20, and 30 year CAGR for each asset class.
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
IMO that’s only helpful for modeling what would happen if you invested 100% of your money at one point in time.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:22 pm I've never found this table to tell me anything useful. I would rather see a display of 10, 20, and 30 year CAGR for each asset class.
Last edited by TropikThunder on Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
- whodidntante
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
I love all the complaints about what the table is not.
- neurosphere
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Here's my take on what this table illustrates. That it's usesless to use previous short-term returns of a particular asset class to decide on changes for the future. Relatedly, the better an asset class has done in the recent past, the worse it is likely to do in the future.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Just buy VT or VTI + VXUS.
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
It's literally right on there.The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns conveys the strong case for diversification across asset classes
(stocks vs. bonds), capitalizations (large vs. small), and equity markets (U.S. vs. global ex-U.S.).
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
+1neurosphere wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:16 pm Here's my take on what this table illustrates. That it's usesless to use previous short-term returns of a particular asset class to decide on changes for the future. Relatedly, the better an asset class has done in the recent past, the worse it is likely to do in the future.
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ |
“How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
- firebirdparts
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
they made a version with a line through it at 0% return, but they decided to stop doing that for free. It didn't show you much more, but it was some more.
This time is the same
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Here's the data presented a few other ways, including performance relative to a 60/40 Boglehead 3-fund portfolio
Annual performance of each asset class with a better sense of scale:
Hypothetical growth of $10K invested at end of 2021
CAGR since end of 2021
Data and code at Github
Annual performance of each asset class with a better sense of scale:
Hypothetical growth of $10K invested at end of 2021
CAGR since end of 2021
Data and code at Github
- Harry Livermore
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
very cool, looks like an original project.
think there's a bug here. looking at the graphs you'd conclude that emerging markets was the best investment of the past decade, and we all know that's not true.
edit: misread, graph goes back 20 years, it's accurate.
Last edited by bling on Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Ah, the search for certainty where none exists continues! Isn't it fun to consider that some find the chart useless, others may use it actionably?
Tim
Tim
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
I don't think there's a bug. I just did a quick comparison of emerging markets to total US for 2001-present using Portfolio Visualizer, and I got the same results.
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
misread, thought it was 10 years instead of 20 years. recency bias is real. i own EM at market weight and all that comes to mind when is how terrible the returns have been the past 10 years.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:46 amI don't think there's a bug. I just did a quick comparison of emerging markets to total US for 2001-present using Portfolio Visualizer, and I got the same results.
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Thanks, HarryHarry Livermore wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:33 amI like that first chart very much.
Where did you get that?
Cheers
- Category return data is from the Callan chart
- Three-fund data is from Portfolio Visualizer based on a 48% US TSM, 12% Ex-US, 40% US TBM portfolio (ratios taken from 60/40 example in wiki)
Chart construction is mine; you can find code at Github if anybody wants to QA and/or adapt.
- Harry Livermore
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Callan table is pretty but I don't get any insights from it. Personally I don't need a table to tell me that no asset class has a straight line to the moon.
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
It does remind us to diversify, and not to ignore some asset classes that can contribute over 20,20+ years to increase performance over just a single US-total stock, especially if the TSM doesn't include those classes in meaningful ways (ex. International, REITS, EM, small).
- Mel Lindauer
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
And with all of those return categories listed, I still couldn't find "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps". Did I just dream up that category?
Best Regards - Mel |
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Semper Fi
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Is there a table mapping Callan table to BH recommended/preferred ETFs?
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Here is a sample list for various factors from the Merriman Foundation. For Vanguard-ites, you can use this list... if willing to branch beyond VG, then here is another list
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Not bad, but if you added colored lines linking each asset class over time, you would get a feeling
for how often the lines cross. I see several times where a class basically goes from first to last and back to first.
This might more easily show that chasing the previous winner often loses the next year.
Also might use log scale on the performance axis.
Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Colored lines - already done; check the GitHub link provided (spoiler: it does not look as good as one might hope)VanGar+Goyle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:56 pmNot bad, but if you added colored lines linking each asset class over time, you would get a feeling
for how often the lines cross. I see several times where a class basically goes from first to last and back to first.
This might more easily show that chasing the previous winner often loses the next year.
Also might use log scale on the performance axis.
Log scale - feel free; check the GitHub link provided
- willthrill81
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Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investing
Here's what I said about this awful table in a prior thread last year.
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:26 am I suppose that I'm one of the few around here that doesn't like the Callan table at all. It condenses ratio data, which carry the most information of any type of data, to ordinal data, which conveys far less information. And I'm not aware of any compelling reason for why this valuable information should be removed. At the very least, the table can lead investors to erroneous conclusions about the performance of various asset classes.
The Sensible Steward