Finding year-end distribution amounts

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FlyingMoose
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Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by FlyingMoose »

I'm trying to find out what the December distribution amounts will be for Total Stock and Total International (both Admiral) so I can do some tax planning. I've googled quite a bit but only found ones from previous years.

I get the feeling that they'll be higher this year than last year because of Covid last year and accelerating economy this year, but maybe they'll be similar.

Is there any place to find out what the distributions will be?
livesoft
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by livesoft »

FlyingMoose wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:39 amIs there any place to find out what the distributions will be?
I do not think so. You want to predict the future too precisely. For myself, I just wait until the numbers come out since I know that anything else beforehand will just be an estimate. Sure, I use estimates, but I do not expect them to be accurate. What else can one do?

If you want to play a game, take the ratio of the sum of the 3 previous 2021 distributions and divide by the sum of the first 3 distributions from 2020. Multiply the 4th 2020 distribution by that factor to estimate the upcoming 4th 2021 distribution. That estimate will be as good as any other estimate. You can test this estimation algorithm by doing it for all past years where you know the answer: Use 1990 date to estimate 1991, 1991 to estimate 1992, ..., 2019 to estimate 2020. Calculate the statistics on the actual minus estimate, average discrepancy, standard deviation, and all that other stuff. Or just wait a few weeks for reality to arrive.
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FlyingMoose
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by FlyingMoose »

Just did as you suggested. Total Stock is almost the same.

Total International was a lot higher because the 2nd quarter dividend was more than double this year vs last year. 3rd quarter was almost the same. Very strange.
livesoft
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by livesoft »

Maybe also look at 2019 dividends for comparison.
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Chip Munk
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

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FlyingMoose wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:39 am I'm trying to find out what the December distribution amounts will be for Total Stock and Total International (both Admiral) so I can do some tax planning. I've googled quite a bit but only found ones from previous years.

I get the feeling that they'll be higher this year than last year because of Covid last year and accelerating economy this year, but maybe they'll be similar.

Is there any place to find out what the distributions will be?
Last year Vanguard released a PDF of "Estimated year-end distributions" on Dec 9, 2020. It appeared in the tax center section of their Advisors website. Keep an eye on this webpage: https://advisors.vanguard.com/tax-center I'm hoping this information will be provided again this year.

I just took a quick look at the data from last year and found some cryptic notes I had made that the actual distributions were higher than the estimates for the one fund and one ETF I own, VTIAX and VTI. For VTIAX the issue is that the estimate is just for the distribution you receive, and while that was pretty close it does not include the foreign tax paid on your behalf, which is also taxable. I don't know if this year's foreign tax data is available anywhere so I use the foreign tax number from last year's 1099 and add that in for the current year as a rough estimate.

VTI's estimate for the December 2020 distribution was $0.72/share but I noted that the actual distribution was $0.7818/share so I will pad this year's estimate a bit, just in case, assuming they provide an estimate...
cas
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by cas »

Chip Munk wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:02 am Last year Vanguard released a PDF of "Estimated year-end distributions" on Dec 9, 2020. It appeared in the tax center section of their Advisors website. Keep an eye on this webpage: https://advisors.vanguard.com/tax-center I'm hoping this information will be provided again this year.
It is Dec 9 this year as well (2021).

To get to this type of information, click on the "View our full tax calendar" link in the Tax Center page you mentioned.

(And, yes, I also have a note to myself in my spreadsheet to pad the Dec 9 numbers by about 10%, then update as actual distributions come in.)
livesoft
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by livesoft »

Image

is now showing in my account. Clicking on the "Get estimates" button actually does not lead to useful information and certainly no estimates of any dividends though it does lead to some dates around December 14.
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tipswatcher
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by tipswatcher »

Here is the link to the preliminary estimates: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/FAPYE ... _Final.pdf

I don't think every fund is listed there, however, because it is only listing capital gains estimates? (The link to this also notes that final estimates will be available by December 13, 2021.)

It's an important document for me because I have Vanguard Wellington Admiral in a taxable account and it is estimated to pay out 6.01% of NAV on Dec. 30. Yes, Dec 30! This drives me crazy for tax planning and my final Roth conversions to hit target income for the year.
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livesoft
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by livesoft »

tipswatcher wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:11 am I don't think every fund is listed there, however, because it is only listing capital gains estimates?
Right, at the moment NO DIVIDEND estimates and only cap gains estimates. So not that useful to folks who try not to have cap gains distributions in their taxable accounts.

Vanguard needs a "Customer Advisory Board" with teeth that can advise them what to do better with backup from the Vanguard CEO.
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Chip Munk
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by Chip Munk »

livesoft wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:22 am
tipswatcher wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:11 am I don't think every fund is listed there, however, because it is only listing capital gains estimates?
Right, at the moment NO DIVIDEND estimates and only cap gains estimates. So not that useful to folks who try not to have cap gains distributions in their taxable accounts.

Vanguard needs a "Customer Advisory Board" with teeth that can advise them what to do better with backup from the Vanguard CEO.
If it's the same as prior years, the document coming out on Dec 9 will include a column titled "Net income available 12/31/2021" which will show an estimate of the dividends per share for the December distributions. I follow cas's advice and pad the estimates, then update with the actual amounts as the distributions are made.
livesoft
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by livesoft »

Chip Munk wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:01 pmIf it's the same as prior years, ....
Right. At that point, one might as well wait for the actual amounts to hit one's account a few days later.

Many of us know the year-end drill anyways, so there are things to get done after dividends show up in one's account(s) just like those things got done at year-end 2020, year-end 2019, year-end 2018, ....
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Chip Munk
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by Chip Munk »

cas wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:57 am
Chip Munk wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:02 am Last year Vanguard released a PDF of "Estimated year-end distributions" on Dec 9, 2020. It appeared in the tax center section of their Advisors website. Keep an eye on this webpage: https://advisors.vanguard.com/tax-center I'm hoping this information will be provided again this year.
It is Dec 9 this year as well (2021).

To get to this type of information, click on the "View our full tax calendar" link in the Tax Center page you mentioned.

(And, yes, I also have a note to myself in my spreadsheet to pad the Dec 9 numbers by about 10%, then update as actual distributions come in.)
Thanks for that information. One other thing that is usually in that document is an estimate of the qualified dividend percentage for each fund, which I find useful when calculating my final estimated tax payment.
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

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FlyingMoose wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:40 am Just did as you suggested. Total Stock is almost the same.

Total International was a lot higher because the 2nd quarter dividend was more than double this year vs last year. 3rd quarter was almost the same. Very strange.
A lot of foreign companies cut their dividends in March and April of 2020; some of those cuts may have been temporary.
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Chip Munk
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by Chip Munk »

FlyingMoose wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:39 am I'm trying to find out what the December distribution amounts will be for Total Stock and Total International (both Admiral) so I can do some tax planning. I've googled quite a bit but only found ones from previous years.

I get the feeling that they'll be higher this year than last year because of Covid last year and accelerating economy this year, but maybe they'll be similar.

Is there any place to find out what the distributions will be?
Vanguard has released the December distributions document: https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/ ... tributions
terran
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Re: Finding year-end distribution amounts

Post by terran »

Chip Munk wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:01 pm ... a column titled "Net income available 12/31/2021" which will show an estimate of the dividends per share for the December distributions...
Thanks, I wasn't sure if that was the right column to look at for the dividend estimate or not.
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