Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

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spencydub
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Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by spencydub »

Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?

Edit: Should have gone in Personal Finance Probably
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JoMoney
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoMoney »

I'm not 100% on this, posting in part hoping someone will correct me if I don't have this right,
My understanding is that the SS amount you're eligible for is indexed to an "average wage index" that does adjust based on the national "average wage index" over time. Which isn't the same as being indexed to an inflation. We can hope that average wages are going up at least at par with inflation, but it's not the same thing.
After you start collecting the amount is adjusted to CPI-W which is one of the inflation indexes.

Someone please correct me or fill in what I'm missing.
Last edited by JoMoney on Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Retired Bill
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by Retired Bill »

The covered wages get adjusted for inflation (by I believe the wage factor mentioned in previous post) and then the highest 35 years are averaged to get a monthly amount. This amount then has a formula applied against it (up to 3 different % and the results added together to arrive at the actual or expected benefit). The lowest tier of earnings gets the highest %, and the highest tier gets the lowest %. This makes social security a great deal for low income earners and not so great for those with high earnings.

When actually receiving social security benefits there is an adjustment for inflation. In recent years the increase for many was offset by the increase in Part B medicare insurance premiums so the net benefit stayed the same.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by Silk McCue »

Apart from inflation please note that the estimates are based upon the expectation that you will continue to work at your last years inflation adjusted salary. If you stop working at 30 you will not receive your $900 benefit at retirement adjusted for inflation as the estimate will go down.

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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by neurosphere »

Your earnings prior to age 60 get indexed to WAGE inflation. Once you are eligible for a benefit (typically age 62) your benefit (may) be adjusted according to PRICE inflation.

So between now and age 62, your benefit adjusts with changes in the national average wage index. This is a "cost of living adjustment" of a sort (in that one might expect wages and thus your benefit to increase over time even with no new earnings), but it is NOT the SS "COLA" which is based on a PRICE index and only applies after age 62.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by spencydub »

Silk McCue wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:11 pm Apart from inflation please note that the estimates are based upon the expectation that you will continue to work at your last years inflation adjusted salary. If you stop working at 30 you will not receive your $900 benefit at retirement adjusted for inflation as the estimate will go down.

Cheers
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
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JoMoney
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoMoney »

spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:23 pm
Silk McCue wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:11 pm Apart from inflation please note that the estimates are based upon the expectation that you will continue to work at your last years inflation adjusted salary. If you stop working at 30 you will not receive your $900 benefit at retirement adjusted for inflation as the estimate will go down.

Cheers
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
This non-official tool/calculator is also interesting to play with:
https://ssa.tools/
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by spencydub »

Thank you all! Does anyone know if the Wage Index has historically kept up with CPI? Or where I could find that data?
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by Gryphon »

I don't know of a page that would just show you that. This page shows the average wage index values going back to 1951, and this page shows COLA adjustments starting in 1975; you'll have to calculate the % change in the wage values yourself.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by finite_difference »

neurosphere wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:19 pm Your earnings prior to age 60 get indexed to WAGE inflation. Once you are eligible for a benefit (typically age 62) your benefit (may) be adjusted according to PRICE inflation.

So between now and age 62, your benefit adjusts with changes in the national average wage index. This is a "cost of living adjustment" of a sort (in that one might expect wages and thus your benefit to increase over time even with no new earnings), but it is NOT the SS "COLA" which is based on a PRICE index and only applies after age 62.
Is the $900 figure in today’s dollars or in future dollars at age 70?

$900 today is worth a lot more than $900 in 30 years.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by neurosphere »

finite_difference wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:37 pm
neurosphere wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:19 pm Your earnings prior to age 60 get indexed to WAGE inflation. Once you are eligible for a benefit (typically age 62) your benefit (may) be adjusted according to PRICE inflation.

So between now and age 62, your benefit adjusts with changes in the national average wage index. This is a "cost of living adjustment" of a sort (in that one might expect wages and thus your benefit to increase over time even with no new earnings), but it is NOT the SS "COLA" which is based on a PRICE index and only applies after age 62.
Is the $900 figure in today’s dollars or in future dollars at age 70?

$900 today is worth a lot more than $900 in 30 years.
Depends on the specific calculator and options you selected. Most of the SS calculators show the benefit in today's dollars, because they assume zero price or wage inflation, and thus today's dollars are the same as tomorrow's dollars if inflation is zero.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by Gryphon »

Social security statements are showing you your benefit in today's dollars. If you want a SS estimate that makes some assumptions about future inflation you'll have to use a calculator.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by wrongfunds »

Just to throw a monkey wrench in to OP's thought exercise, if OP needs health coverage at 65, I suspect stopping to earn money from age 30 will not work. I believe there is some specific requirement for becoming eligible for Medicare.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoMoney »

wrongfunds wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:29 am Just to throw a monkey wrench in to OP's thought exercise, if OP needs health coverage at 65, I suspect stopping to earn money from age 30 will not work. I believe there is some specific requirement for becoming eligible for Medicare.
If they didn't have 10 years of working payments into medicare, they might have to pay a premium for the Medicare "Part A" coverage that those otherwise eligible have already paid into.

I've had a question (that I haven't had answered), about Medicare disability coverage for someone that retired very early and later becomes disabled.
In order to be eligible for social-security disability payments, one of the tests is for having had recent work (something like having 5 years worth of credits earned within the last 10 years.) If someone is not eligible for social-security disability if they became disabled before age 65, because they failed to have contributed enough credits recently to maintain eligibility, does that also stop them from being eligible for Medicare disability?
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by mptfan »

spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:29 pm Does anyone know if the Wage Index has historically kept up with CPI? Or where I could find that data?
Historically the wage index has kept up with and increased more than price inflation. Based on my calculations, for the 30 years starting in 1990, the national average wage index has increased by an average of 3.3% per year while the CPI-U price index increased by an average of 2.4%.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoMoney »

mptfan wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:38 am
spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:29 pm Does anyone know if the Wage Index has historically kept up with CPI? Or where I could find that data?
Historically the wage index has kept up with and increased more than price inflation. Based on my calculations, for the 30 years starting in 1990, the national average wage index has increased by an average of 3.3% per year while the CPI-U price index increased by an average of 2.4%.
That's how it appeared to me as well when I tried to calculate and compare the AWI to CPI. There are other factors in the formula for what ultimately comes out in ones SS benefit, but it does appear that at least historically the wage index factor has increased more than inflation. Which if that trend continues, should bode well for OP's question about the current benefit being adjusted for inflation over time.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by tetractys »

spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:29 pm Thank you all! Does anyone know if the Wage Index has historically kept up with CPI? Or where I could find that data?
All CPI data can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics: www.BLS.gov

Also see here: www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by Retired2013 »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:25 am
wrongfunds wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:29 am Just to throw a monkey wrench in to OP's thought exercise, if OP needs health coverage at 65, I suspect stopping to earn money from age 30 will not work. I believe there is some specific requirement for becoming eligible for Medicare.
If they didn't have 10 years of working payments into medicare, they might have to pay a premium for the Medicare "Part A" coverage that those otherwise eligible have already paid into.

I've had a question (that I haven't had answered), about Medicare disability coverage for someone that retired very early and later becomes disabled.
In order to be eligible for social-security disability payments, one of the tests is for having had recent work (something like having 5 years worth of credits earned within the last 10 years.) If someone is not eligible for social-security disability if they became disabled before age 65, because they failed to have contributed enough credits recently to maintain eligibility, does that also stop them from being eligible for Medicare disability?
I retired at the age of 56. For a couple of years after retirement, my SS statement showed an amount if disabled. My current statement doesn't show any disability benefit. I assumed it was because of the 5 year rule. Same thing for my wife. If we become disabled before 65, it's on us. We have to wait to collect SS at 62 or whatever age we claim. If we claim at 62, it will just be reduced. It seems like a penalty to me just because we saved and were able to retire early.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoeRetire »

spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:44 pm If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70
Yes.

(But it wouldn't actually start at $900. That estimate assumes you continue to get the same annual salary with social security contributions as shown in your work history, until you reach age 70.)
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by spencydub »

JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:19 pm
spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:44 pm If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70
Yes.

(But it wouldn't actually start at $900. That estimate assumes you continue to get the same annual salary with social security contributions as shown in your work history, until you reach age 70.)
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by spencydub »

mptfan wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:38 am
spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:29 pm Does anyone know if the Wage Index has historically kept up with CPI? Or where I could find that data?
Historically the wage index has kept up with and increased more than price inflation. Based on my calculations, for the 30 years starting in 1990, the national average wage index has increased by an average of 3.3% per year while the CPI-U price index increased by an average of 2.4%.
Very interesting. Thank you.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by neurosphere »

spencydub wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:59 pm
mptfan wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:38 am
spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:29 pm Does anyone know if the Wage Index has historically kept up with CPI? Or where I could find that data?
Historically the wage index has kept up with and increased more than price inflation. Based on my calculations, for the 30 years starting in 1990, the national average wage index has increased by an average of 3.3% per year while the CPI-U price index increased by an average of 2.4%.
Very interesting. Thank you.
mptfan is correct. In fact, the SS administration "Trustees" when predicting future inflation parameters assume that wage growth will exceed price growth by about 1% per year, similar to historical averages.

Here are their assumptions for the next ten years (left is CPI-W, right is average wage index change):

5.90% 6.30%
2.40% 4.30%
2.40% 3.70%
2.40% 3.40%
2.40% 3.60%
2.40% 3.60%
2.40% 3.70%
2.40% 3.70%
2.40% 3.70%
2.40% 3.60%
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoeRetire »

spencydub wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:58 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:19 pm
spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:44 pm If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70
Yes.

(But it wouldn't actually start at $900. That estimate assumes you continue to get the same annual salary with social security contributions as shown in your work history, until you reach age 70.)
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
Is that how you came up with $900? Or is that before setting your future salary to $0?
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoMoney »

Retired2013 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:29 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:25 am
wrongfunds wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:29 am Just to throw a monkey wrench in to OP's thought exercise, if OP needs health coverage at 65, I suspect stopping to earn money from age 30 will not work. I believe there is some specific requirement for becoming eligible for Medicare.
If they didn't have 10 years of working payments into medicare, they might have to pay a premium for the Medicare "Part A" coverage that those otherwise eligible have already paid into.

I've had a question (that I haven't had answered), about Medicare disability coverage for someone that retired very early and later becomes disabled.
In order to be eligible for social-security disability payments, one of the tests is for having had recent work (something like having 5 years worth of credits earned within the last 10 years.) If someone is not eligible for social-security disability if they became disabled before age 65, because they failed to have contributed enough credits recently to maintain eligibility, does that also stop them from being eligible for Medicare disability?
I retired at the age of 56. For a couple of years after retirement, my SS statement showed an amount if disabled. My current statement doesn't show any disability benefit. I assumed it was because of the 5 year rule. Same thing for my wife. If we become disabled before 65, it's on us. We have to wait to collect SS at 62 or whatever age we claim. If we claim at 62, it will just be reduced. It seems like a penalty to me just because we saved and were able to retire early.
Yes.. and I understand that's the case with social security disability if you don't have the required recent work credits.
The question I haven't had answered, is whether or not Medicare disability has the same requirement.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by MIretired »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:33 pm
Retired2013 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:29 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:25 am
wrongfunds wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:29 am Just to throw a monkey wrench in to OP's thought exercise, if OP needs health coverage at 65, I suspect stopping to earn money from age 30 will not work. I believe there is some specific requirement for becoming eligible for Medicare.
If they didn't have 10 years of working payments into medicare, they might have to pay a premium for the Medicare "Part A" coverage that those otherwise eligible have already paid into.

I've had a question (that I haven't had answered), about Medicare disability coverage for someone that retired very early and later becomes disabled.
In order to be eligible for social-security disability payments, one of the tests is for having had recent work (something like having 5 years worth of credits earned within the last 10 years.) If someone is not eligible for social-security disability if they became disabled before age 65, because they failed to have contributed enough credits recently to maintain eligibility, does that also stop them from being eligible for Medicare disability?
I retired at the age of 56. For a couple of years after retirement, my SS statement showed an amount if disabled. My current statement doesn't show any disability benefit. I assumed it was because of the 5 year rule. Same thing for my wife. If we become disabled before 65, it's on us. We have to wait to collect SS at 62 or whatever age we claim. If we claim at 62, it will just be reduced. It seems like a penalty to me just because we saved and were able to retire early.
Yes.. and I understand that's the case with social security disability if you don't have the required recent work credits.
The question I haven't had answered, is whether or not Medicare disability has the same requirement.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... ligibility
Looks like only if you are SSD recipient, or end stage renal cond, or ALS.?
, When under 65.
I see this is not the answer you needed if you were over 65. If that, seems there is no more disability for either (SSD or Medicare disability.)
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoMoney »

MIretired wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:46 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:33 pm
Retired2013 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:29 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:25 am
wrongfunds wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:29 am Just to throw a monkey wrench in to OP's thought exercise, if OP needs health coverage at 65, I suspect stopping to earn money from age 30 will not work. I believe there is some specific requirement for becoming eligible for Medicare.
If they didn't have 10 years of working payments into medicare, they might have to pay a premium for the Medicare "Part A" coverage that those otherwise eligible have already paid into.

I've had a question (that I haven't had answered), about Medicare disability coverage for someone that retired very early and later becomes disabled.
In order to be eligible for social-security disability payments, one of the tests is for having had recent work (something like having 5 years worth of credits earned within the last 10 years.) If someone is not eligible for social-security disability if they became disabled before age 65, because they failed to have contributed enough credits recently to maintain eligibility, does that also stop them from being eligible for Medicare disability?
I retired at the age of 56. For a couple of years after retirement, my SS statement showed an amount if disabled. My current statement doesn't show any disability benefit. I assumed it was because of the 5 year rule. Same thing for my wife. If we become disabled before 65, it's on us. We have to wait to collect SS at 62 or whatever age we claim. If we claim at 62, it will just be reduced. It seems like a penalty to me just because we saved and were able to retire early.
Yes.. and I understand that's the case with social security disability if you don't have the required recent work credits.
The question I haven't had answered, is whether or not Medicare disability has the same requirement.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... ligibility
Looks like only if you are SSD recipient, or end stage renal cond, or ALS.?
, When under 65.
I see this is not the answer you needed if you were over 65. If that, seems there is no more disability for either (SSD or Medicare disability.)
I guess that's the answer, if you're over 65 you're eligible for normal SS/Medicare, so being eligible for disability Medicare isn't a necessary consideration. It's something I think people looking at "FIRE" early should consider. If they get some disabling illness, it could make regular health insurance very expensive, and at the same time may not be eligible for disability medicare (unless ALS or kidney failure)
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by MIretired »

Yea. It even seems that SSD was meant to be a gov. substitute for workers long term disability insurance, with the stringent time to file requirement. Right?
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by chipperd »

JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:17 pm
spencydub wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:58 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:19 pm
spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:44 pm If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70
Yes.

(But it wouldn't actually start at $900. That estimate assumes you continue to get the same annual salary with social security contributions as shown in your work history, until you reach age 70.)
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
Is that how you came up with $900? Or is that before setting your future salary to $0?
I'm not the OP but this was from the first post which seems to imply that the OP would not earn any income after age 30.
"Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?"
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoeRetire »

chipperd wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:15 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:17 pm
spencydub wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:58 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:19 pm
spencydub wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:44 pm If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70
Yes.

(But it wouldn't actually start at $900. That estimate assumes you continue to get the same annual salary with social security contributions as shown in your work history, until you reach age 70.)
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
Is that how you came up with $900? Or is that before setting your future salary to $0?
I'm not the OP but this was from the first post which seems to imply that the OP would not earn any income after age 30.
"Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?"
I was asking the OP if they set their average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what they will get on 0 wages going forward and in that way arrived at $900. Or if the $900 estimate was before they learned how to set the average future salary to 0.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by chipperd »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:24 am
chipperd wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:15 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:17 pm
spencydub wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:58 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:19 pm

Yes.

(But it wouldn't actually start at $900. That estimate assumes you continue to get the same annual salary with social security contributions as shown in your work history, until you reach age 70.)
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
Is that how you came up with $900? Or is that before setting your future salary to $0?
I'm not the OP but this was from the first post which seems to imply that the OP would not earn any income after age 30.
"Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?"
I was asking the OP if they set their average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what they will get on 0 wages going forward and in that way arrived at $900. Or if the $900 estimate was before they learned how to set the average future salary to 0.
Yeah guess I wasn't much help then eh? I'm thinking the former.
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spencydub
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by spencydub »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:24 am
chipperd wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:15 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:17 pm
spencydub wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:58 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:19 pm

Yes.

(But it wouldn't actually start at $900. That estimate assumes you continue to get the same annual salary with social security contributions as shown in your work history, until you reach age 70.)
You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
Is that how you came up with $900? Or is that before setting your future salary to $0?
I'm not the OP but this was from the first post which seems to imply that the OP would not earn any income after age 30.
"Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?"
I was asking the OP if they set their average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what they will get on 0 wages going forward and in that way arrived at $900. Or if the $900 estimate was before they learned how to set the average future salary to 0.
Yes, I set my average future salary to 0 to get that $900 number.
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoeRetire »

spencydub wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:28 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:24 am
chipperd wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:15 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:17 pm
spencydub wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 4:58 pm

You can set your average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what you will get on 0 wages going forward. Good tool for early retirement I think.
Is that how you came up with $900? Or is that before setting your future salary to $0?
I'm not the OP but this was from the first post which seems to imply that the OP would not earn any income after age 30.
"Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?"
I was asking the OP if they set their average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what they will get on 0 wages going forward and in that way arrived at $900. Or if the $900 estimate was before they learned how to set the average future salary to 0.
Yes, I set my average future salary to 0 to get that $900 number.
Thanks for clearing that up.
So yes, the $900 will be adjust for inflation.
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
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Eagle33
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by Eagle33 »

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:31 pm
spencydub wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:28 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:24 am
chipperd wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:15 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:17 pm
Is that how you came up with $900? Or is that before setting your future salary to $0?
I'm not the OP but this was from the first post which seems to imply that the OP would not earn any income after age 30.
"Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?"
I was asking the OP if they set their average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what they will get on 0 wages going forward and in that way arrived at $900. Or if the $900 estimate was before they learned how to set the average future salary to 0.
Yes, I set my average future salary to 0 to get that $900 number.
Thanks for clearing that up.
So yes, the $900 will be adjust for inflation.
Doesn't COLA start being applied to one's PIA only once they reach 62? Before that isn't PIA adjusted by some sort of on average wage index?
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neurosphere
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by neurosphere »

Eagle33 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:07 pm Doesn't COLA start being applied to one's PIA only once they reach 62? Before that isn't PIA adjusted by some sort of on average wage index?
Yes. See above. ;)
neurosphere wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:19 pm Your earnings prior to age 60 get indexed to WAGE inflation. Once you are eligible for a benefit (typically age 62) your benefit (may) be adjusted according to PRICE inflation.

So between now and age 62, your benefit adjusts with changes in the national average wage index. This is a "cost of living adjustment" of a sort (in that one might expect wages and thus your benefit to increase over time even with no new earnings), but it is NOT the SS "COLA" which is based on a PRICE index and only applies after age 62.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
tj
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by tj »

Drop your SS statement wage history into ssa.tools. That's what your real current estimate is.
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Artful Dodger
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by Artful Dodger »

FWIW I went into my SS.gov account last week, and my future benefits had already been adjusted by the 5.9% increase for 2022.
sycamore
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by sycamore »

tj wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:20 pm Drop your SS statement wage history into ssa.tools. That's what your real current estimate is.
ssa.tools doesn't yet reflect the latest index numbers from the SSA.

Example https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html shows 1.0282553 for 2019 if you submit for an eligibility year of 2022.
whereas ssa.tools still uses an index factor of 1.000 for 2019.
tj
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by tj »

sycamore wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:29 pm
tj wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:20 pm Drop your SS statement wage history into ssa.tools. That's what your real current estimate is.
ssa.tools doesn't yet reflect the latest index numbers from the SSA.

Example https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html shows 1.0282553 for 2019 if you submit for an eligibility year of 2022.
whereas ssa.tools still uses an index factor of 1.000 for 2019.

Then wait a few weeks before dumping the data in there.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by JoeRetire »

Eagle33 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:07 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:31 pm
spencydub wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:28 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:24 am
chipperd wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:15 pm

I'm not the OP but this was from the first post which seems to imply that the OP would not earn any income after age 30.
"Age 30. Social Security website says I can collect $900 at the age of 70. If I retired right now and didn't earn another dollar, would that $900 get adjusted for inflation every year till age 70 or do COLAs only start at distribution?"
I was asking the OP if they set their average future salary to 0 to get an estimate on what they will get on 0 wages going forward and in that way arrived at $900. Or if the $900 estimate was before they learned how to set the average future salary to 0.
Yes, I set my average future salary to 0 to get that $900 number.
Thanks for clearing that up.
So yes, the $900 will be adjust for inflation.
Doesn't COLA start being applied to one's PIA only once they reach 62? Before that isn't PIA adjusted by some sort of on average wage index?
I believe it's age 60, but the question was "is it adjusted for inflation?"

So since the wage index is adjusted for inflation, and COLA is adjusted for inflation, the OP can expect the $900 base to be adjusted for inflation every year until age 70.
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
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neurosphere
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by neurosphere »

JoeRetire wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 3:21 pm
Doesn't COLA start being applied to one's PIA only once they reach 62? Before that isn't PIA adjusted by some sort of on average wage index?
I believe it's age 60, but the question was "is it adjusted for inflation?"
CPI based COLAs do not start until or "after" age 62, in that (roughly) your age 62 benefit "is what it is" and then any future COLAs will be applied to this initial benefit each January (in addition to any effect of increases due to waiting to claim the benefit, additional earnings, etc).
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
sycamore
Posts: 6310
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Re: Does Future Social Security Benefit Get COLA?

Post by sycamore »

tj wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 3:15 pm
sycamore wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:29 pm
tj wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:20 pm Drop your SS statement wage history into ssa.tools. That's what your real current estimate is.
ssa.tools doesn't yet reflect the latest index numbers from the SSA.

Example https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html shows 1.0282553 for 2019 if you submit for an eligibility year of 2022.
whereas ssa.tools still uses an index factor of 1.000 for 2019.

Then wait a few weeks before dumping the data in there.
Follow-up: the latest numbers were added to ssa.tools back on Dec. 21.
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