Lucid electric cars & stock

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F150HD
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Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by F150HD »

Company has popped up in my feed frequently in the past week https://www.lucidmotors.com/

Lucids first vehicle release is this Fall (?)....is this company expected to survive and be a player in the electric vehicle market? looking for insight.

Curious if anyone bought stock at their IPO? and what the long term outlook in this company is?

and/or anyone buy one of their vehicles on pre-order? Lucid vs Tesla...will this be the story in 2022?

Ticker LCID

Lucid Motors to launch 2021 Lucid Air, an electric luxury vehicle that could rival Tesla

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ca ... 304624001/
Inframan4712
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Inframan4712 »

Just no.

1. Single stock
2. New car companies rarely succeed.
3. Nikola, Fisker
4. Competition from established players.
blueberrypi
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by blueberrypi »

The Lucid vehicles look fantastic. I think the quality and technology are a step up from everything on the market; 21 speakers and Dolby Atmos surround sound, for instance. No opinion of the stock :happy
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by firebirdparts »

F150HD wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 11:33 am .is this company expected to survive and be a player in the electric vehicle market?
Hard to say. Car business is a cruel business. Being the me-too johnny-come-lately entry doesn't help.

When it comes to capitalization of car companies, I always say that if Henry J. Kaiser couldn't do it, nobody else can either. When Richard Langworth wrote his book about Kaiser-Frazer, he in fact titled it "Last Onslaught on Detroit." I think he was right. Tesla has made it to basic solvency. They will probably be around for a long time. None of the rest of the new ones have, not close.

Very few car companies have ever existed that didn't go through a stockholder wipeout.
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Normchad
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Normchad »

firebirdparts wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:29 pm
F150HD wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 11:33 am .is this company expected to survive and be a player in the electric vehicle market?
Hard to say. Car business is a cruel business. Being the me-too johnny-come-lately entry doesn't help.

When it comes to capitalization of car companies, I always say that if Henry J. Kaiser couldn't do it, nobody else can either. When Richard Langworth wrote his book about Kaiser-Frazer, he in fact titled it "Last Onslaught on Detroit." I think he was right. Tesla has made it to basic solvency. They will probably be around for a long time. None of the rest of the new ones have, not close.

Very few car companies have ever existed that didn't go through a stockholder wipeout.
All very true.

I am very bullish that the future will be won by EVs. But I have no idea which companies will thrive, and I certainly can’t tell you where the smart investments are.

However, I do know that many legacy automakers are pouring a lot of resources into this. And they already know how to mass produce cars, and have that ability and access to lots of cash. It does not mean they will win or dominate, but they have a lot of advantages over a new company.

Then there are a bunch of Chinese EV companies. They are already up and running making EVs. They know what they’re doing, and some of them are making very compelling products.

So, would,I,pick Lucid over all,of these companies? No,I wouldn’t. Lucid might be successful, but this is a brutal industry. I think I’ve heard that there have been a total of 3,000 car companies in America, and only 3 of them survived. I suppose that’s four now with Tesla.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by adamthesmythe »

If it were safe you could go to Vegas and put a couple thou on double zero. Same thing.
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Leif
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Leif »

I think Lucid is a high risk/reward stock. But, I don't invest in individual stocks myself.

I'm impressed with the company/car so far. Supported by the Saudi wealth fund. It looked like Lucid was going to die for awhile, but with new money they are now close to production.

Only two major US based car companies have not gone bankrupt at some point. Tesla and Ford. At one point Tesla only had about 2 weeks of payroll money left. A few years ago there was a lot of talk about shorting Tesla stock by a couple of posters. Have not seen much of those posts anymore.

When it is time to replace my Tesla I'll be looking at the Lucid Air.
Last edited by Leif on Sun Aug 08, 2021 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Gadget
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Gadget »

This is the wrong forum to talk LCID... But, I've been in since CCIV was rumored to be Lucid at around 15.

Right now they are all based on promises. I think the make or break will be if their 500+ mile range that can charge to 80% in under 30ish minutes (going by memory) is accurate in production. That's the biggest issue EVs have had towards mass adoption in my opinion, and if Lucid really has the best tech in that area instead of the promise I think they'll succeed.

That said, if I was smarter, I'd have sold when it was 60/share. Was too busy patting myself on the back with 4x gains that I watched them disappear.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by investorpeter »

I own Lucid stock. In March, I purchased shares of the SPAC (CCIV) at around $26 and now hold Lucid stock (LCID) after the merger. It is about 1.5% of my portfolio. It is one of the few EV stocks I own. The other EV stocks I own are Tesla and Xpeng (a Chinese EV company). But Lucid is clearly a longshot, extremely risky and volatile, and not a suitable investment for retirement purposes. I am reminded of the long-list of defunct long-forgotten auto manufacturers most of whom went out of business in the early years of the auto industry. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_d ... ted_States Having said that, TSLA was also somewhat risky when I purchased it with around 2.0% of my portfolio in 2018 (instead of purchasing a Model S for the same amount), and those TSLA shares are now 15% of my portfolio. These are my reasons for owning Lucid Motors:

1) I like the product. I think it looks good, design is sleek, and it appeals to the higher-end of the market in a way that Tesla does not. The Model S is amazing in terms of performance and technology. But the Model S looks rather bland in my opinion, not that different from any other sedan available in the US market. Whereas, the Lucid Air looks more like an actual premium product. There will be competition from other traditional manufacturers like Mercedes, but I believe/hope Lucid can distinguish itself with its technology and performance. Only time will tell.

2) The Lucid Air has demonstrated performance that actually meets or exceeds even that of the Model S Plaid edition. Track times at Laguna Seca are proof. https://www.motortrend.com/news/lucid-a ... ime-video/ So Lucid is not like some other notorious EV manufacturers that didn't even have a working product, such as Nikola which allegedly rolled its non-functioning truck down a hill for a commercial.

3) Lucid is vertically integrated, in that it owns its own factory and machines. This is in contrast to other EV companies that outsource the manufacturing (like Fisker, which outsources to Magna for essentially all manufacturing). It's hard to say which business model will prove to be better. Again only time will tell. But Tesla is vertically oriented, and it has proven to work for them in terms of continual improvement of their product and processes. It just makes sense to me that if you want to produce the best possible product, you have to control the means to manufacture it. This is also the reason I own Xpeng vs. other Chinese EV companies. But it is expensive to build factories and machines, and production is hell, paraphrasing what someone else said.

4) It seems evident to me that within the next 2-3 decades, and possibly sooner, all personal vehicles manufactured in the US will be electric. Currently, EVs are only 2% of the US market, so there is a lot of room to grow.

But again, I would emphasize that investing in individual stocks, and especially EV stocks, is extremely risky. Nonetheless, I do find that there are a number of Bogleheads who have valuable insights into individual stocks, even while subscribing to Boglehead philosophy. I think the skepticism expressed here is extremely valuable.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by 456M »

Bought CCIV at the rumor at around ~$12 and sold at around $32 before the DA. Don't currently have a position, but they do appear to be a legit contender in the luxury EV market. They're nothing like Nikola which is a scam.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by F150HD »

thanks for replies. Am just curious. Read they had a bunch of preorders and were releasing their first actual car this Fall.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Leif »

F150HD wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:55 pm thanks for replies. Am just curious. Read they had a bunch of preorders and were releasing their first actual car this Fall.
They sold out of the Dream edition preorders of 500 cars. Suppose to be delivered before the end of the year.

Total preorders of 5,000 for all editions. Suppose to be working on an SUV version called Gravity. Seems promising for a start up.

P.S. I see now the total preorders are over 10,000.
Last edited by Leif on Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Top99% »

Lucid seems to have a really excellent product and I wish them well. But, after reading a couple of books on Tesla's story and learning a) how hard the automobile business is and b) how close Tesla came, multiple times, to bankruptcy I wouldn't buy Lucid stock. Tesla beat incredible odds helped by some luck combined with of course a good product and people who bought the stock 3+ years ago reaped the rewards (I wasn't one of them) but it very easily could have gone the other way. In addition to good fortune (acquiring the NUMI factory for a song for example, stable economy), Tesla really had no competition.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Robot Monster »

Does this forum have a good track record on recommendations about individual stocks? Maybe, but can't help thinking of the "Is Disney the most tempting value stock?" thread from last year, possibly worth a read. link You can come to your own conclusions about it.
Last edited by Robot Monster on Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by 02nz »

F150HD wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:55 pm thanks for replies. Am just curious. Read they had a bunch of preorders and were releasing their first actual car this Fall.
Lordstown Motors also claimed to have a bunch of preorders and a vehicle coming this fall. The then-President even showcased the vehicle at the White House. Then things unraveled. Executives cashed out before the stock tanked. Google if you want to learn more.

I'm not saying Lucid is like Lordstown, but I don't know that much about Lucid and you know even less, so keep that in mind if you're considering being on the other side of the trade from pros who follow this stuff for a living and maybe even the company's own executives.
Last edited by 02nz on Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Nowizard »

Risky, and there is a predictable legal firm investigating the advantages that appear to stakeholders for SPAC's. They reportedly have 11,000 pre-orders and are reportedly partially funded by UAE. There is considerable discussion about their battery technology that allows charges up to 500 miles, and discussion that the battery technology could be as valuable as the vehicle production with numerous applications. A high ranking, former Tesla engineer is with Lucid. We have made a relatively small stock purchase in the company as a high risk, high reward possibility even though we infrequently purchase individual stocks.

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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by 02nz »

blueberrypi wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:27 pm The Lucid vehicles look fantastic. I think the quality and technology are a step up from everything on the market; 21 speakers and Dolby Atmos surround sound, for instance. No opinion of the stock :happy
21 speakers and Dolby Atmos aren't going to win the race (they count the number of individual drivers, I'm sure there are cars with even more than that). I think Lucid's vehicles look great but I don't get their selling point. Tesla has the brand recognition and charging network. Other companies have different selling points (luxury, fit and finish, price, ability to charger even faster than Tesla, etc.). What's Lucid's? (ETA: they're claiming faster-than-Tesla charging. But others like Porsche, Hyundai, and Kia offer similarly fast charging on 800V vehicles.)

Here's an article (https://www.theverge.com/22547202/lucid ... test-drive) in which the company's SVP of design and brand says, “This car is going to offer a lot more space, a lot more comfort, nicer material, trim, cargo... I just think it’s a more luxury-focused product [than Tesla]." Lucid has neither Tesla's brand cachet and charging network, nor the established track record and car-making experience of Audi, Mercedes, etc., so I'm very skeptical that a little more luxury and a nicer stereo - which lots of automakers will offer - will be enough. We shall see.

(Beside the point, but Dolby Atmos in a car stereo is silly except as another thing they can tack onto the feature list. Atmos makes a difference for movies with its height effects, not so much for music. There's very little music encoded with regular Dolby Surround, much less Atmos.)
Last edited by 02nz on Mon Aug 09, 2021 12:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by blueberrypi »

I believe the Lucid Air also claims to be the fastest charging EV available as well as the most energy efficient. I suspect some customers prefer an EV-only brand vs a legacy brand with a new EV platform. Will be interesting to see how the market shakes out.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by firebirdparts »

The shaking out never gets finished. The industry as a whole is just too competitive. Sometimes people will say “you just don’t appreciate the huge technology advantage of Belchfire Motors” and they’re right. I don’t.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by killjoy2012 »

1) Auto manufacturing is a capital intensive, highly regulated, cyclical & low profit (typically single digit %) market. TBH, I'd consider most new companies trying to enter it, silly, for those reasons alone. And while I have no insight to Apple's rumor car plans and ambitions, I would bet these facts factored heavily in why there is no Apple Car today.

2) Product innovations and quality don't correlate to the market, and I certainly wouldn't be betting any money I couldn't afford to lose. Numerous examples over history of better products losing to inferior, or poor products going bonkers on the market.

3) Tesla had a lot of luck, help and an early start... and even then, they are barely profitable. Most would say their market cap is irrational exuberance and based on assumptions of the global domination for next 100 years... which is highly skeptical.

4) Once the legacy OEMs get their EV fleet on showroom floors, which is coming soon, the whole slimy market of carbon tax credits is going bye bye. Go ask Elon how much, what % of Tesla's profits are, in selling his carbon credits to the traditional OEMs... because the OEM have no other choice at the moment. And Lucid likely won't have any of that carbon tax money as a buffer as Tesla did.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by wizardofoz1 »

I bought heavily into Lucid. Agree, high risk, but the reward will be high if they succeed.

They have amazing reviews:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/reviews/a3 ... ir-review/

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2022 ... ve-review/

My reasons:

1.EV will be the future.Presently only 2% of all vehicle sales in the US are EV's. This will increase drastically in the next 5-10 years.
2. Pure EV companies like Tesla,Lucid and Rivian will have a big advantage going forwards. They don't have the ' baggage" of having to keep on making ICE for the rest of the world.Pure EV can concentrate on their only product- EV vehicles.
3. LUCID CEO is a former Tesla engineer- chief engineer for the remarkable Model S. He knows this businees inside out.
4. The production hell Tesla went through was becasue of Elon Musk irrational demands. I don't believe it would be that dramatic in the newer companies that are run more rationally. Having egoistical CEO only makes matters worse.
5. They have proprietary technology- extremely small electric motors- 520 mile range just announced. more than a 100 miles more than the great Model S and with bidirectional charging and the fastest charging presently available. The high range makes dependency on charging stations less likely.
6.Saudi wealth fund invested 1 billion. They have 4 billion in cash - expanding factory in Arizona, another factory in Saudi Arabia, SUV coming in 2023.
7. Mercedes just released their flagship EV- EQS- range? 350 miles of range- 170 miles LESS than the Lucid Air! Go figure.

Agree, their is risk, but if you look how the automobile industry is moving the EV, the potential is tremendous!!

I invested more than half of my net worth in Lucid. I strongly believe they will succeed! If they do, I can retire a decade earlier!
Last edited by wizardofoz1 on Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Nathan Drake »

wizardofoz1 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:20 pm I bought heavily into Lucid. Agree, high risk, but the reward will be high if thye succeed.

My reasons:

1.EV will be the future.Presently only 2% of all vehicle sales in the US are EV's. This will increase drastically in the next 5-10 years.
2. Pure EV companies like Tesla,Lucid and Rivian will have a big advantage going forwards. They don't have the ' baggage" of having to keep on making ICE for the rest of the world.Pure EV can concentrate on their only product- EV vehicles.
3. LUCID CEO is a former Tesla engineer- chief engineer for the remarkable Model S. He knows this businees inside out.
4. The production hell Tesla went through was becasue of Elon Musk irrational demands. I don't believe it would be that dramatic in the newer companies that are run more rationally. Having ego egoistical CEO only makes matters worse.
5. They have proprietary technology- extremely small electric motors- 520 mile range just announced. more than a 100 miles more than the great Model S and with bidirectional charging and the fastest charging presently available. The high range makes dependency on charging stations less likely.
6.Saudi wealth fund invested 1 billion. They have 4 billion in cash - expanding factory in Arizona, another factory in Saudi Arabia, SUV coming in 2023.
7. Mercedes just released their flagship EV- EQS- range? 350 miles of range- 170 miles LESS than the Lucid Air! Go figure.

Agree, their is risk, but if you look how the automobile industry is moving the EV, the potential is tremendous!!

I invested more than half of my net worth in Lucid. I strongly believe they will succeed! If they do, I can retire a decade earlier!
Sounds like a very good Boglehead thing to do. EVs may be the future. Doesn't mean they will be a good business.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by rob »

What could go wrong.... sounds great!
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by wizardofoz1 »

Agree, high risk, high reward. Lucid has amazing technology- hence the 520 mile range.

Even if they capture 5% of the EV market in the US- projected to be least 25% of vehicle sales by 2030, perhaps even 30%. 23 million more EV's will be sold in just the USA by 2030. 1.2 million at least could be Lucid, 20% profit margin, perhaps even higher being luxury, 70k base car, = 16 billion in revenue. Now this is accounting for just for the base car. They have more expensive models up to 130k, SUV coming that will be more expensive. Also factor in worldwide sales. The potential is ENORMOUS! If they can deliver. Good thing they have an amazing leadership team- ex apple, intel, boeing, Tesla, GM ( supercruise) etc.

The entire energy industry will be transformed by the end of the decade.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by investorpeter »

Have been holding Lucid as an individual stock since it was the CCIV SPAC, and I agree with most of what you have said. Putting 50% of your net worth in Lucid is extremely speculative, however. I hope that losing that 50% of your net worth wouldn't change your life plans. I don't have nearly that level of conviction, but I do have a significant amount invested as I believe Lucid thus far has shown itself to be the closest real competitor to Tesla in terms of EV technology, and I agree that the potential future market is huge.

However, I think there are some headwinds. For one, Lucid still needs to demonstrate it can ramp up to volume production, and the repeated delays on the release of the Lucid Air did not inspire confidence. Number 2, they need to develop a more affordable vehicle to compete with the Model 3/Y, and not get trapped into simply being a high-end luxury EV sedan manufacturer, but they can't do this until they first establish themselves as a high-end desirable luxury brand. Number 3, they may be disproportionately affected by supply chain constraints because they don't have existing relationships with suppliers; I just don't see how Lucid or any other new EV manufacturer will be able to compete effectively if they can't meet the demand - eventually people will just give up on wanting their product if they cannot get it within a reasonable timeline - kind of happening now with CyberTruck. Number 4, they need to generate significant positive media attention around the Lucid Air (seems like this may just be starting, but much of the hype is getting drowned out by the release of the Rivian). Number 5, they need to demonstrate that their software technology can compete with Tesla. Clearly they can compete on EV and battery technology, but I have yet to see any reviews of the software interface, autopilot features, etc. This is where Tesla is running circles around the legacy manufacturers. Kind of reminds of me the stark contrast between the initial iPhone vs. competitors like Blackberry and Windows Phones. And Number 6, which is probably the most important in terms of comparing Lucid to Tesla valuation - can Lucid ever be more than an EV manufacturer? Can it leverage its EV technology into being a leader in Robo-taxis? Energy? Does CEO Peter Rawlinson have the ability to pivot into these new industries when the time comes. Clearly this is where Elon Musk excels beyond any other CEO.

Having said all of that, I am still bullish on Lucid. But I also know there are a lot of potential hurdles to overcome before we can say that Lucid will be the "next Tesla".
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Valuethinker »

F150HD wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 11:33 am Company has popped up in my feed frequently in the past week https://www.lucidmotors.com/

Lucids first vehicle release is this Fall (?)....is this company expected to survive and be a player in the electric vehicle market? looking for insight.

Curious if anyone bought stock at their IPO? and what the long term outlook in this company is?

and/or anyone buy one of their vehicles on pre-order? Lucid vs Tesla...will this be the story in 2022?

Ticker LCID

Lucid Motors to launch 2021 Lucid Air, an electric luxury vehicle that could rival Tesla

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ca ... 304624001/
Investing in the stock is classic bubble investing.

It is "the next Tesla". Or "better than Tesla". etc. i.e. comparison with a huge successful company in the same industry. Product is currently vaporware--although it may be a real product in a few months.

Anyone who puts money behind this is speculating or gambling-- pure and simple.

One should:

- only do this if one is convinced one has the inside track - insight into the company, its market or products that would not generally be available. If you are connected to the company, this would of course also constitute insider trading, potentially, which is illegal - tread carefully.

It's also a very easy way to go wrong. Loving the product does not mean the stock is worth buying.

- in any case, limit one's exposure to ideally 5% or at most 10% of total portfolio

- as above, be ready for it to go to zero
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Yarlonkol12 »

I think electic vehicles are cool, however I’m not understanding why so many people want to invest in these EV manufacturers? I know Tesla has a been a big recent meme stock, but is it really likely that multiple EV companies will also become meme stocks along with AMC and GME? If your not betting on the meme stock angle, why else would you buy these stocks? These are not software companies

As a side note, with a large portion of office work shifting to permenent remote work status and that trend accelerating, won’t that also reduce the TAM for cars? I know our household no longer needs 2 cars, I don’t think we will downsize to a single shared car but I think we will probably keep our cars longer, for 20-30 years instead of 10-15 years as we are only driving about 2k miles per year now.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by nisiprius »

Valuethinker wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:34 am...Loving the product does not mean the stock is worth buying...
One of the things Peter Lynch did was to put the idea into peoples' heads that their fan appreciation for a brand could be the equivalent of valuable inside information that the green-shaded accountants would never understand. The stock is undervalued because the financial types just don't get how cool the product is...

It's legitimate to use a personal product experience as a kind of reality check to make sure something isn't vaporware. If I recall correctly, Lynch asked his wife whether L'Eggs hosiery was good... after deciding it looked like a promising stock based on the numbers.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by ClevrChico »

The AirDream Edition has 1,111 HP. What an amazing world we live in!
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by TomatoTomahto »

I noticed that a Lucid Air was prominent on the show Goliath.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Nysoz »

wizardofoz1 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:20 pm I bought heavily into Lucid. Agree, high risk, but the reward will be high if they succeed.

They have amazing reviews:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/reviews/a3 ... ir-review/

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2022 ... ve-review/

My reasons:

1.EV will be the future.Presently only 2% of all vehicle sales in the US are EV's. This will increase drastically in the next 5-10 years.
2. Pure EV companies like Tesla,Lucid and Rivian will have a big advantage going forwards. They don't have the ' baggage" of having to keep on making ICE for the rest of the world.Pure EV can concentrate on their only product- EV vehicles.
3. LUCID CEO is a former Tesla engineer- chief engineer for the remarkable Model S. He knows this businees inside out.
4. The production hell Tesla went through was becasue of Elon Musk irrational demands. I don't believe it would be that dramatic in the newer companies that are run more rationally. Having egoistical CEO only makes matters worse.
5. They have proprietary technology- extremely small electric motors- 520 mile range just announced. more than a 100 miles more than the great Model S and with bidirectional charging and the fastest charging presently available. The high range makes dependency on charging stations less likely.
6.Saudi wealth fund invested 1 billion. They have 4 billion in cash - expanding factory in Arizona, another factory in Saudi Arabia, SUV coming in 2023.
7. Mercedes just released their flagship EV- EQS- range? 350 miles of range- 170 miles LESS than the Lucid Air! Go figure.

Agree, their is risk, but if you look how the automobile industry is moving the EV, the potential is tremendous!!

I invested more than half of my net worth in Lucid. I strongly believe they will succeed! If they do, I can retire a decade earlier!
Disclaimer is that I'm heavily invested in TSLA since 2014, but cheer on any EVs.

I'd caution basing investing based on reviews of prototypes/pre production cars from media/youtubers. When was the last time you saw a negative review on any new hot product? Every EV for the past few years that has been announced/released has been touted as a Tesla killer from these same people.

1/2. I agree that the TAM is large and pure EV players may have an easier time than the baggage of legacy auto.
3. He does have good pedigree. Time will tell if that translates into a great CEO and ongoing product design.
4. The production hell that Tesla went through was for ramping up a mass production 'affordable' car. Making a single product or limited numbers is easy. Ramping it up efficiently to mass production is hard.
5. We'll have to wait for the official numbers to see if the Air is that much more efficient or did they just shove more batteries in the car. As of now the Air 520 mile range on 113 kwh (that one is sold out and the one you can reserve is 516 miles) where the Model S is 405 miles on 100 kwh. One of the Tesla uber bulls has a tinfoil hat on thinking that the Air may have up to 140 kwh battery size to get that range.

One of the problems is that Lucid still hasn't delivered any cars and has a market cap of $36B. They're getting TSLA type multiples/pricing without knowing how fast they can ramp/sell cars and what profit margin they can get. Then one of the other things that people miss is that the other EV companies are just that where Tesla has the opportunities to branch out into AI/Energy (even if it is far into the future before that makes any sense).

So I hope they succeed and do well as every EV is one less ICE on the road. I think they'll do well in the high end luxury EV market as long as the delivered cars come as promised. How much the company is worth remains to be determined, but good luck!
Nowizard
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Nowizard »

Huge risk. However, being one who makes small, speculative purchases, we do have a small amount of Lucid and it serves its purpose of no expectation for appreciation, fantasizing the unexpected and enjoying looking at its performance in the same way we wonder if a particular day will be sunny or rainy, knowing we prefer one but adapt to either.

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firebirdparts
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by firebirdparts »

Nysoz wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:05 am I think they'll do well in the high end luxury EV market as long as the delivered cars come as promised. How much the company is worth remains to be determined, but good luck!
I think they have a chance to achieve a cyclical, single-digit profit margin if the delivered cars come as promised. Most car companies that existed didn't actually do that, FWIW. But there's a chance.
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burritoLover
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by burritoLover »

I guarantee that if Tesla had remained priced in a reasonable range through its history, few of these discussions about investing in EV stocks would exist. You could have made the case for EVs being the future, blah, blah, blah in mid 2019 when TSLA was at 40-ish - so why didn't you jump on that opportunity then? Because TSLA hasn't exploded yet so the thought didn't enter your brain and now you are just performance chasing.

Why don't you ask what is the next-next big thing?
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mervinj7
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by mervinj7 »

Nysoz wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:05 am
5. We'll have to wait for the official numbers to see if the Air is that much more efficient or did they just shove more batteries in the car. As of now the Air 520 mile range on 113 kwh (that one is sold out and the one you can reserve is 516 miles) where the Model S is 405 miles on 100 kwh. One of the Tesla uber bulls has a tinfoil hat on thinking that the Air may have up to 140 kwh battery size to get that range.
I thought the official numbers are known now. Is there something else to wait for? 520 miles on 113kWh is impressive. But then again I drive a Nissan Leaf so I'm impressed by any range.

https://insideevs.com/news/533295/lucid ... e-ratings/

Super excited by this company. No clue how to judge the stock so I'm sticking to VTI.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Valuethinker »

burritoLover wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:36 am I guarantee that if Tesla had remained priced in a reasonable range through its history, few of these discussions about investing in EV stocks would exist. You could have made the case for EVs being the future, blah, blah, blah in mid 2019 when TSLA was at 40-ish - so why didn't you jump on that opportunity then? Because TSLA hasn't exploded yet so the thought didn't enter your brain and now you are just performance chasing.

Why don't you ask what is the next-next big thing?
Yes.

Representativeness heuristic, I think that is called. In the behavioural finance literature.

Or Salience?

We tend to overgeneralise from our own knowledge. And also salience of recall.

Many of us "missed" Tesla (if we were stock followers, that is). So this is a way to "make good" on "the one that got away".

A very similar mentality is involved in betting on horse races.

Interestingly, Ada Lovelace Babbage, the first computer programmer of the modern world, and for whom the programming language ADA was named, founded a consortium to bet on horses, using her superior mathematical ability (we would call her "neuro-divergent" now, for a woman in the 1850s to be so gifted in "man's business"). It was to make good her losses on other investments and repay her creditors.*

She failed miserably.

* although Charles Babbage (her uncle)'s efforts to build a more sophisticated & essentially digital computer for the British government failed -- leading to huge acrimony and an attempt to get the money back -- the Royal Navy was one of the first adopters of "Ranging Tables" - which calculated the trajectories of shells allowing for relative motion of ship & target. These were, in effect, analog computers. This was towards the very end of the Victorian era, I believe.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Valuethinker »

wizardofoz1 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:20 pm
6.Saudi wealth fund invested 1 billion. They have 4 billion in cash - expanding factory in Arizona, another factory in Saudi Arabia, SUV coming in 2023.
7. Mercedes just released their flagship EV- EQS- range? 350 miles of range- 170 miles LESS than the Lucid Air! Go figure.

Agree, their is risk, but if you look how the automobile industry is moving the EV, the potential is tremendous!!

I invested more than half of my net worth in Lucid. I strongly believe they will succeed! If they do, I can retire a decade earlier!
If you followed the track of the Saudi SWF into the Softbank Vision Fund, which lost a fortune in WeWork, then you might not be so impressed.

There's no evidence that they are "smart money". Rather, they come across as the guy in the poker game who cannot figure out who the mug is...

It may be that "disruptors" like Tesla are in a position to wipe out the previous generation of automotive majors. That's certainly been the case when there were step changes in technology in other industries. Who remembers DEC? Or Unisys?

But which of the many players on the board is likely to triumph? I really don't know.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Nysoz »

mervinj7 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:43 am
I thought the official numbers are known now. Is there something else to wait for? 520 miles on 113kWh is impressive. But then again I drive a Nissan Leaf so I'm impressed by any range.

https://insideevs.com/news/533295/lucid ... e-ratings/

Super excited by this company. No clue how to judge the stock so I'm sticking to VTI.
The 113 kwh battery size is from what they said at announcement a while ago and nothing's been updated since then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fkYXK5AGTA&t=340s

Timestamp around 4 minutes to get to his 'investigation'. Keep in mind that Warren Redlich is a TSLA uber bull with potential 2030 price targets of $20-40k so take his biased content with a grain (or entire shaker) of salt.

520 mile range is still impressive though no matter the battery size. It's just a matter of how impressive it could be.
mrmass
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by mrmass »

Funny Lucid is using an old Theranos mfg/lab space...
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Starfish »

I climbed couple of days ago in a Lucid, pretty interesting but very expensive.
jarjarM
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by jarjarM »

mrmass wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:35 pm Funny Lucid is using an old Theranos mfg/lab space...
Ah, no wonder that building looks eerily familiar. :oops:
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Leif »

jarjarM wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:04 pm
mrmass wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:35 pm Funny Lucid is using an old Theranos mfg/lab space...
Ah, no wonder that building looks eerily familiar. :oops:
Really? I thought manufacturing is being done at their newly built facility in Casa Grande, Arizona. I heard it is the first green field factory for EVs in North America.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by jarjarM »

Leif wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:20 pm
jarjarM wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:04 pm
mrmass wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:35 pm Funny Lucid is using an old Theranos mfg/lab space...
Ah, no wonder that building looks eerily familiar. :oops:
Really? I thought manufacturing is being done at their newly built facility in Casa Grande, Arizona. I heard it is the first green field factory for EVs in North America.
Their pilot line/lab/HQ is in that area of Newark. The actual manufacturing factory is over at Casa Grande.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by atdharris »

I kind of wish there was an ETF that tracked all these new EV startups. I could see myself investing 1-2% of my net worth into LCID. But considering they have yet to sell a vehicle (correct me if I am wrong), I would be pretty nervous putting anything close to 50% of my NW into it.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by HomerJ »

wizardofoz1 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:20 pm I invested more than half of my net worth in Lucid. I strongly believe they will succeed! If they do, I can retire a decade earlier!
And two decades later if they don't!
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Nathan Drake
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Nathan Drake »

EV investment is in an epic bubble that won’t end well for many
Valuethinker
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Valuethinker »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:29 pm
wizardofoz1 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:20 pm I invested more than half of my net worth in Lucid. I strongly believe they will succeed! If they do, I can retire a decade earlier!
And two decades later if they don't!
It may be worse than that.

Because you lose the additional 10 years of compounding.

Say $50k now which took you 5 years to build up. Mr Hare loses that. You then have 15 years only to make it back. Meanwhile Mr. Tortoise, who invested his money in the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund, takes the original $50k and then doubles it twice over 20 yrs at 7% pa.

What is very likely to happen is "gambler's remorse". Double or quits. At year 5, you will invest in another high risk investment. Get it wrong. Start again. Maybe only 10 years now.

Finally Mr Hare gets religion and swears off stock bets. Buys Vanguard TSM. But it's too late to make 4x.

I have seen versions of this, in investing, dozens of times. And, in fact, have done a version of same myself. When I had a few hundred thousand during the dot com era (in my employer's stock) I thought if I just held on... I'd have the million+. *Then* I would get out.

Sold for less than 10% of peak value. Now if I'd just sold, paid the tax, maybe netted out 300k, invested it-- 10 lousy years (invested in 2000). Then 10 very good years. I'd probably have nearly a million now from that money.

I had some private company investments which were supposed to come good. Overall I about broke even-- the last one, which I invested in in 2000, was sold in 2018, for about what I invested in it (including a couple of down rounds on the way). But I lost the upside that $20k could have given me.
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

atdharris wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:25 pm I kind of wish there was an ETF that tracked all these new EV startups. I could see myself investing 1-2% of my net worth into LCID. But considering they have yet to sell a vehicle (correct me if I am wrong), I would be pretty nervous putting anything close to 50% of my NW into it.
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/ ... mbols=FDRV

“The fund seeks to provide investment returns that correspond, before fees and expenses, generally to the performance of the Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index. Normally investing at least 80% of assets in securities included in the Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index and in depositary receipts representing securities included in the index. The Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index is designed to reflect the performance of a global universe of companies across the market capitalization spectrum engaged in the production of electric and/or autonomous vehicles and their components, technology, or energy systems or engaged in other initiatives that aim to change the future of transportation.”

My link in no way is an endorsement! I am a TSM guy 100%.

It’s literally brand new last week.

https://www.actionsxchangerepository.fi ... 60%2370%23
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atdharris
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by atdharris »

Ferdinand2014 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:54 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:25 pm I kind of wish there was an ETF that tracked all these new EV startups. I could see myself investing 1-2% of my net worth into LCID. But considering they have yet to sell a vehicle (correct me if I am wrong), I would be pretty nervous putting anything close to 50% of my NW into it.
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/ ... mbols=FDRV

“The fund seeks to provide investment returns that correspond, before fees and expenses, generally to the performance of the Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index. Normally investing at least 80% of assets in securities included in the Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index and in depositary receipts representing securities included in the index. The Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index is designed to reflect the performance of a global universe of companies across the market capitalization spectrum engaged in the production of electric and/or autonomous vehicles and their components, technology, or energy systems or engaged in other initiatives that aim to change the future of transportation.”

My link in no way is an endorsement! I am a TSM guy 100%.

It’s literally brand new last week.

https://www.actionsxchangerepository.fi ... 60%2370%23
Interesting. I own something like 10 shares of TSLA for fun that I bought a while ago before the runup, so I definitely believe in the future of EVs. I just don't know if Tesla will have a monopoly on that market forever. I have to believe a competitor will eventually present itself.
secondopinion
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Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Post by secondopinion »

atdharris wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:37 am
Ferdinand2014 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:54 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:25 pm I kind of wish there was an ETF that tracked all these new EV startups. I could see myself investing 1-2% of my net worth into LCID. But considering they have yet to sell a vehicle (correct me if I am wrong), I would be pretty nervous putting anything close to 50% of my NW into it.
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/ ... mbols=FDRV

“The fund seeks to provide investment returns that correspond, before fees and expenses, generally to the performance of the Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index. Normally investing at least 80% of assets in securities included in the Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index and in depositary receipts representing securities included in the index. The Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index is designed to reflect the performance of a global universe of companies across the market capitalization spectrum engaged in the production of electric and/or autonomous vehicles and their components, technology, or energy systems or engaged in other initiatives that aim to change the future of transportation.”

My link in no way is an endorsement! I am a TSM guy 100%.

It’s literally brand new last week.

https://www.actionsxchangerepository.fi ... 60%2370%23
Interesting. I own something like 10 shares of TSLA for fun that I bought a while ago before the runup, so I definitely believe in the future of EVs. I just don't know if Tesla will have a monopoly on that market forever. I have to believe a competitor will eventually present itself.
We do not know whether those competitors will be new companies or old ones. Even an "old school" car company could do a leveraged buyout of one of these upcoming companies.

Given many of the existing car companies are making strides to do EVs, I have a hard time thinking that the existing will drop like flies to these new players. The new players have the uphill battle just to get customers, let alone meaningful market share and branding.
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