Social security estimation accuracy

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Mr.BB
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Social security estimation accuracy

Post by Mr.BB »

I have been using Maxifi software for our financial planning. I noticed that their estimation for our social security benefits at age 70 was higher then what the actually Social Security site was saying we would get. Their basic estimation is that SS underestimates your future benefits value. My DW income numbers were easier to estimate in the software program than mine, but I was surprised by the increased benefits according to them.

For those who have started receiving their SS benefits, were the SS.gov website estimations accurate? Or did you find that your monthly benefits were higher then what they said you would get; especially if you start following the site a few years before you got your benefits?
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GerryL
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Re: Social security estimation accuracy

Post by GerryL »

Mr.BB wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:24 pm I have been using Maxifi software for our financial planning. I noticed that their estimation for our social security benefits at age 70 was higher then what the actually Social Security site was saying we would get. Their basic estimation is that SS underestimates your future benefits value. My DW income numbers were easier to estimate in the software program than mine, but I was surprised by the increased benefits according to them.

For those who have started receiving their SS benefits, were the SS.gov website estimations accurate? Or did you find that your monthly benefits were higher then what they said you would get; especially if you start following the site a few years before you got your benefits?
I stopped working before turning 66, shortly before FRA, but waited until 70 to collect SS. The estimate on the SS page assumed that I would continue working until I claimed. So once my FRA number was solid (after they had a chance to include final year employment income in the calculation) I simply took the FRA benefit amount and added 8% per year (not compounded). I updated my estimate each year after they updated their estimate, which included COLA. My estimates continued to track theirs and my first SS check was almost exactly what I had estimated.
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One Ping
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Re: Social security estimation accuracy

Post by One Ping »

    Try the SSA calculator ANYPIA. You can download it and put in any earnings history you want and it will tell you your benefit for any claiming date you enter.
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    livesoft
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by livesoft »

    Frankly, I haven't worried about it because I doubt the numbers will be off by more than a few restaurant lunches per month.

    What kind of differences are you seeing? Thousands of dollars a month? Hundreds? Less than a hundred? Less than $50?
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    southerndoc
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by southerndoc »

    @One Ping Thank you for posting this. Didn't know this was even offered. Will have to install it on my work laptop when I boot it up next (I primarily use a MacBook/Mac mini).
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by Cash is King »

    southerndoc wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:34 pm @One Ping Thank you for posting this. Didn't know this was even offered. Will have to install it on my work laptop when I boot it up next (I primarily use a MacBook/Mac mini).
    FYI, Note that this Mac version will not work on a Mac running Lion or newer versions of the OS X operating system. We hope to produce a Mac version which will work on newer versions of OS X, but we have very limited resources to devote to that project at this time.
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by southerndoc »

    Cash is King wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:44 pm
    southerndoc wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:34 pm @One Ping Thank you for posting this. Didn't know this was even offered. Will have to install it on my work laptop when I boot it up next (I primarily use a MacBook/Mac mini).
    FYI, Note that this Mac version will not work on a Mac running Lion or newer versions of the OS X operating system. We hope to produce a Mac version which will work on newer versions of OS X, but we have very limited resources to devote to that project at this time.
    Sorry, my post was incomplete. My work laptop is a Windows 10 machine that I purchased to use Dragon at the hospital (since macOS Dragon has been discontinued and wasn't comparable to DMPE).
    Cash is King
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by Cash is King »

    southerndoc wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:47 pm
    Cash is King wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:44 pm
    southerndoc wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:34 pm @One Ping Thank you for posting this. Didn't know this was even offered. Will have to install it on my work laptop when I boot it up next (I primarily use a MacBook/Mac mini).
    FYI, Note that this Mac version will not work on a Mac running Lion or newer versions of the OS X operating system. We hope to produce a Mac version which will work on newer versions of OS X, but we have very limited resources to devote to that project at this time.
    Sorry, my post was incomplete. My work laptop is a Windows 10 machine that I purchased to use Dragon at the hospital (since macOS Dragon has been discontinued and wasn't comparable to DMPE).
    8-)
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by One Ping »

    southerndoc wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:34 pm @One Ping Thank you for posting this. Didn't know this was even offered. Will have to install it on my work laptop when I boot it up next (I primarily use a MacBook/Mac mini).
    No worries! :sharebeer
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    Mr.BB
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by Mr.BB »

    livesoft wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:32 pm Frankly, I haven't worried about it because I doubt the numbers will be off by more than a few restaurant lunches per month.

    What kind of differences are you seeing? Thousands of dollars a month? Hundreds? Less than a hundred? Less than $50?
    With my DW numbers, I came up with a $4,700 a year difference. I used the SS site at age 70 monthly number vs. what the software program said at age 70.
    Last edited by Mr.BB on Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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    Topic Author
    Mr.BB
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    Re: Social security estimation accuracy

    Post by Mr.BB »

    One Ping wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:27 pm
      Try the SSA calculator ANYPIA. You can download it and put in any earnings history you want and it will tell you your benefit for any claiming date you enter.
      I will try this later. Thank you.
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by One Ping »

      Of course, then once you know your PIA, you could (should?) use Mike Piper's (aka ObliviousInvestor) site opensocialsecurity to figure out your claiming strategy.
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by Mr.BB »

      One Ping wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:09 pm Of course, then once you know your PIA, you could (should?) use Mike Piper's (aka ObliviousInvestor) site opensocialsecurity to figure out your claiming strategy.
      I did that already, numerous times with various scenario. Always came up with age 70 for starting date.
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      One Ping
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by One Ping »

      Mr.BB wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:14 pm
      One Ping wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:09 pm Of course, then once you know your PIA, you could (should?) use Mike Piper's (aka ObliviousInvestor) site opensocialsecurity to figure out your claiming strategy.
      I did that already, numerous times with various scenario. Always came up with age 70 for starting date.
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      BolderBoy
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by BolderBoy »

      My actual benefit (taken at age 70) is about $3/month less than the website estimate said it would be.
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      David Jay
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by David Jay »

      SS does not include any inflation is future numbers (because no one knows what inflation will be before the fact), so that could be a difference. I have never used Maxifi so I do not know if they are building in any inflation escalation in their calcs.

      I duplicated the SSA formulas in a spreadsheet and each year, when the COLA is announced, my numbers match the SS number exactly. I keep expecting a year with a $1 per month rounding difference, but so far it is spot on.
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      Mr.BB
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by Mr.BB »

      Update. Turns out my future SS discrepancy was user error with Maxifi. The section that allows you to put in a future increase or decrease percent with SS payments, I thought I had put a 10% decrease in payments starting in 2034, and thought that the program automatically defaulted to a negative percent. Turns out I gave us a 10% increase. I guess there is a reason they put minus and a plus symbols next to the box. :oops:
      Last edited by Mr.BB on Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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      Arby
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by Arby »

      Mr.BB wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:24 pm

      For those who have started receiving their SS benefits, were the SS.gov website estimations accurate? Or did you find that your monthly benefits were higher then what they said you would get; especially if you start following the site a few years before you got your benefits?
      Never used the website but an old paper statement was on the money once I made some adjustments.

      In my case it was fairly straightforward because the last year on the statement had zero income and it assumed zero income for future years.

      So I just adjusted 2/3 of 1% for every month past FRA and also for the COLA's and surprisingly it came out to the dollar.
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by howard71 »

      Mr.BB wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:24 pm For those who have started receiving their SS benefits, were the SS.gov website estimations accurate?
      This depends on how many years out you are looking at the estimates. The closer you get to retirement the more accurate it will be.

      Mine was spot on to what I figured after retiring at 67 and delaying benefits to age 70. It was pretty accurate before that too. I think the closer you get to the maximum amount, the more accurate it will be also.
      cbeck
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      Re: Social security estimation accuracy

      Post by cbeck »

      In my experience http:\\ssa.tools is accurate and easy to use.
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