How much Gold do you own and why?

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EnjoyIt
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by EnjoyIt »

finite_difference wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:30 pm
If guns and ammo are most useful, then a stash of guns and ammo will paint a huge target on your back. An apocalyptic scenario like that is going to be very rough.
I have seen this comment a few times here. I don't understand why one would go flaunting their guns and ammo?
Have what you have. Carry what you need. Use if necessary. Where does flaunting come into play? Why would having a stash then paint a huge target on my back?

Frankly in an apocalyptic world I would rather have some guns and ammo than not have them at all.

Today, if I was in a very unlikely scenario where a gun is needed, I would rather have one and know how to use it than not have one and die.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
seajay
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by seajay »

lazybones18 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:55 pm My wife bought about $50,000 worth of Gold jewelry on our wedding ( its a south Asian culture ) ...
and she keeps buying more every year

I don't consider it a investment at all. she plans to give it to our kids / grandkids eventually

my wife thinks buying gold is the best investment but we all know what the real motive is :D
In some cultures/countries the devaluation of legal tender is seen more for what it is. In India I believe that gold/money lending is common. Hold a ounce of gold and as a pay-day-loan deposit that quickly/easily in exchange for currency and a 0.75%/month type interest rate. Where up to 70% of the spot gold value might be lent as cash. Then on pay-day pay off the interest to get their gold back. The cash lender is de-risked in that default sees gold on their books at 70% of spot rate, or where otherwise their gold earns interest/dividends. The borrower only has to hold devaluing currency/cash for brief periods before being exchanged for whatever product/services and when cash comes their way the again convert it back to gold as a store of value.

In the West, individuals are more content to hold currency destined to devalue, investing in often volatile investments in the hope/expectancy that after currency devaluation, costs and taxation, that their money will offset the devaluation. But where as the Buffett comment posted earlier, inflation as a 'tax' can at times exceed 100% levels.

Somewhat in a awakening, some in the West are looking to alternatives such as digital currencies/bit coin - but when there is already a alternative in the form of gold. I guess some just like taking risks and/or making voluntary additional contributions to the state/others or partaking of Ponzi systems.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Toons wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:39 am None
Non producing Asset
Same here.
Irenaeus
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Irenaeus »

About 8.5% of my investment portfolio is in gold: PHYS - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (expense ratio 0.42% according to the Sprott website (down from 0.45% as recently as 2020) (Vanguard reports it as 0.35% and I am unsure where the discrepancy lies)) because it can be taxed at the US long-term capital gains rate if held for more than one year rather than the US collectible rate (currently 28%).

I like having a third asset class - gold - which has very little correlation to stocks and bonds: the odds of at least one asset class being up are better than if I merely held stocks and bonds.

Taxable
VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (48% of portfolio).
VXUS - Vanguard Total International Stock Market ETF (35% of portfolio).
PHYS - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (8.5% of portfolio but my IPS allows for as much as about 10%).

401(k)
(adding $500 weekly to maximize annual contributions)
VBTIX - Vanguard Total (US) Bond Market Index (5% of portfolio), though I would slightly prefer BNDW (Vanguard Total World Bond ETF), but it is unavailable in my employer's plan. If I ever roll these funds into a rollover account, I would probably switch to BNDW).
I just started adding these now that I've built my bond position up to 5% of my investment portfolio:
VINIX - Vanguard Institutional Index Fund (0.1%<) - mutual fund very similar to VTI
VTSNX - Vanguard International Stock Index Fund (0.1%<) - mutual fund very similar to VXUS

Roth (adding $7,000 yearly to maximize annual contributions)
VT - Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (3.2% of portfolio but I am maximizing annual contributions).

Since VT ~= VTI + VXUS at relative US/ex-US weights, I think of this as an aspiring two-fund portfolio (VT (85%) + BNDW (5%)), plus a third fund: PHYS (10%). But I want the foreign tax credit so rather than simply having VT in my taxable account, I instead hold both VTI + VXUS in my taxable account and at least get the foreign tax credit on VXUS.
Da5id
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Da5id »

seajay wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:48 pm Since 1972 and 50/50 stock/gold versus 100% stock ... provided near the same broad reward

Since 2005, 50/50 BRK/gold compared to 50/50 S&P500/total bond for someone that paid high taxes against dividends/interest would not only have seen lower total returns, but also paid more of the gains in taxes.
While I have no comment on the rest of your opinions about gold (not a fan, but each to their own), have to say I really dislike cherry picked start dates as a means to prove mostly anything. A graph to show something is *possible* this kind of graph is fine, but are you claiming these graphs are significant in some way?
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

7eight9 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:43 pm Why own gold? It has a better track record than fiat currencies.
Yes, the above is essentially my view... as I suggested earlier, I wouldn't reallocate from stocks to gold, but it might make sense as a diversifier in the cash (or near-cash) portion of one's AA (if any).
seajay wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:48 pm Many have a apparent intense dislike of gold, will jump in as per this thread very quickly to vilify it. Often they'll be fine with bonds however, and the tax risks that bears and often in total disregard of the negativities that exist in bonds.
Yes, I find it interesting that it's usually the same people who vilify gold that have no objection keeping an allocation to cash or short-term bonds in one's long-term AA (other than one's emergency fund), even though those things have underperformed gold at least since the Depression (as we see in the chart you and others have posted).

Someone said "echo chamber"... do the above-mentioned folks constitute one? (Not sayin', just askin'.)

Perhaps some people are uncomfortable with the idea that different people do different things. I'm 100% OK with it. As a great American philosopher once said, sometimes nobody's wrong.
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000
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by 000 »

Currently around 13% gold, 10% precious metal miners.

For valuation diversification because both stock indices and fiat instruments look likely overvalued to me.
Dink2018
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Dink2018 »

10% gold for me.

Because it has a multi thousand year old track record. All fiat currencies eventually become less over time. It seems to help increase safe withdrawal rates.

All in all going forward I expect I'd do better with gold than cash or bonds. I could be wrong but I'm willing to take that chance with 10% of my portfolio.

10% Gold
10% Cash - Sounds like a lot but isn't given this includes business operating cash, quarterly taxes etc.
20% Bonds (split 70% US /30% INT)
60% (Split 36% US Equities / 24% International Equities)

I'm going for the "don't lose" portfolio, not looking for max gains, just something I can pile money into and keep doing it.
Da5id
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Da5id »

000 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:23 pm Currently around 13% gold, 10% precious metal miners.

For valuation diversification because both stock indices and fiat instruments look likely overvalued to me.
I'm on board with stocks (US large cap in particular) being historically pricey and bond yields are indeed poor. But what is your criteria for gold being reasonably priced? Not really interested in investing in this asset class, just curious.
nigel_ht
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by nigel_ht »

DidOurBest wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:19 pm
finite_difference wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:30 pm
mptfan wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:33 pm
bigskyguy wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:27 pmThis is available should we experience a true national economic/political catastrophe (true hyperinflation) and needed to relocate to be with family in Western Europe.
If the stuff really hit the fan and society broke down, I would rather have a store of guns and ammunition than a store of gold. I certainly wouldn't want to be passing out gold coins or gold bars, that would put a target on my back.
You’d want gold, guns, ammunition, marksmanship skills, close combat skills, first aid skills, food, medicine, antibiotics, water, fallout shelter, strategically located house, land to grow garden, gardening knowledge, mechanics knowledge, survival knowledge, books, lots of supplies and tools, etc. Pray you don’t get sick. It would be helpful to be a doctor.

Be a veteran, doctor, engineer, survivalist, and a good teacher.

If guns and ammo are most useful, then a stash of guns and ammo will paint a huge target on your back. An apocalyptic scenario like that is going to be very rough.

Gold I think has utility for getting out of the country in case your country goes to heck and there’s hyperinflation or a bank run. Think Germany, Italy, France, Norway, Denmark, Poland, Eastern Europe, Venezuela, etc.
This.

When we lived through the total destruction of Katrina outside of Biloxi MS and had no running water or electricity or fuel for a week+ gold and other precious metals were absolutely useless.

Nobody wanted them, nobody was “bartering” with them. Gas, food, ice and medical supplies were what held any final value.

I’ve always thought since then that people who think that they will survive with metals in this type of scenario have never lived through anything remotely like this type of scenario.

We personally own zero gold/metals.
Escaping using gold.

"Between 1978 and 1981, over a million escaped by way of the sea - these were "the boat people". Most left in secret or by bribing officials, although a great number of Hoa (Chinese-Vietnamese) paid many taels of gold for permission to leave. The high cost of supplies and/or bribes to officials left the majority of boat people penniless."

https://www.historymuseum.ca/cmc/exhibi ... ea03e.html

"According to accounts of refugees who spoke to Post Magazine for this story (individuals named here as well as others who chose to remain anonymous), an adult would be charged, on average, 10 to 12 taels of 24k gold for space on an escape ship (one tael being 1.2 troy ounces); the fee for children was lower and dependent on age. The price of gold in January 1979 hovered at about US$240 an ounce, so an adult would have been paying around US$3,000, the equivalent today of more than US$10,000."
...
"Mai Tran’s parents paid 15 ounces for each child, and gave him a 24k gold wedding band that could be sold in an emergency. “We had small bags with just two or three sets of clothes,” Mai Tran says, adding that they also had no idea where they would be heading. “We only knew that we were getting out.”"

https://multimedia.scmp.com/magazines/p ... src=social

How likely is bartering with gold?

"Even the universities have been swept up in the gold rush. “In November, one of the girls who is studying here told me: ‘A degree is not expensive, because its only 2.5g of gold [for a semester],’” said Arturo Peraza, rector of the city’s influential Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. “It was the first time I learned the value of a university education in grams of gold. I could not have imagined it.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... rmed-gangs

Katrina? That's your benchmark? Mkay.

Yes, it might be stolen from you or just taken from your dead body but it can also be the last bit of hard asset you have to get out of a bad situation.

Like I said, families with personal experience with instability understand the desire to own some gold.
Bear906
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Bear906 »

David Jay wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:52 pm
Bear906 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:30 pmI do set aside all the non-zinc American and Canadian 1-cent coins that come my way, though.
You do know that Canada no longer uses the penny, right?
Yes. I am a Canadian, residing in Michigan, and still receive occasional Canadian cents in change from American retailers. Obviously, this wouldn't happen at home in Ontario.
Retirement: 48% WFSPX+SWPPX 12% BDOKX 40% PRRIX | Other Needs: 25% SCHG 75% SCHR
ChrisRx
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by ChrisRx »

I love gold, but it lags behind stocks, real estate, etc.
nigel_ht
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by nigel_ht »

wwtraveler wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:45 pm This was partially during WW2 and the country was taken over by an “exile govt”. I’d say that qualifies as a unstable geo politic situation. That currency existed for what 3 years amidst total chaos of “I wonder if I live another day”?
The Old Taiwan Dollar only existed between 1946 and 1949. It didn't exist during WW2 and ceased to exist when the exile government took over. The hyperinflation was because of the Chinese civil war.
My advice would have been LEAVE THE ISLAND.
Gold would be useful in this endeavor. The Old Taiwan Dollar not so much.
I doubt the common laborer had an open gold market and went down one afternoon ahead of time to say “eh I think we are going to get invaded id like some gold please”. The people with any means probably left in the mid 30s when it wasn’t quite sure if Japan would invade.
Japan received Taiwan as part of the settlement of the Sino-Japanese War in 1895.

In the mid 30's there were local elites cultivated by the Japanese. These were obviously not common laborers and would have gold and were aligned with the Japanese. Why would they leave? The Japanese were investing fairly heavily into Taiwan during that period building railroads and other infrastructure.

Perhaps you should take a cursory look at a topic before commenting on it? There is thing called the internet...
But yes let me indulge you. The layman had all their money in gold. Guess what? Everyone else would have known that and taken it since they would have been the only ones walking around with gold. Investment return -100% robbed, beat up, and died.

I’m sorry these scenarios just don’t work. In all of those cases you are swept up by something much larger. Unless you are large enough to push back gold isn’t going to change that.
Well, given my dad paid the little gold he had to get on a boat to escape to Taiwan in 1949 it did work. My grandfather had given him a little stash from the family holdings. Unfortunately they didn't use what they had to get out of dodge even though my father pleaded with them to grab what they could and go to coast and get out. They were forced to commit suicide by the communists.

If you were an elite under the Japanese and not too keen on the KMT coming in, paying off some KMT officials in gold to get out with your family and belongings and go to Singapore or Macao was a good option. Of course being allowed to immigrate would also require some payoffs and they sure weren't going to take Old Taiwan Dollars over there either.

Believe what you want but a lot of immigrant families know the value of hard assets when trying to escape an untenable situation. Yes, many do die in the attempt but for many who didn't have the means to even try the outcome was no better. The Great Leap Forward resulted in 15-55 million deaths in China...and if you were one of the former landowning or intellectual class you were more likely to be in some camp and end up starving.
Trader Joe
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Trader Joe »

Toons wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:39 am None
Non producing Asset


:happy
This.
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

Toons wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:39 am None
Non producing Asset
Trader Joe wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:01 am This.
I take it you're both against holding cash or short-term bonds in one's long-term AA (but never voiced your opinion)?

Many bond funds and balanced funds hold a lot of that (for example, in Vanguard Target Retirement Income, cash and short-term bonds make up about half of the fund, considering the short-term components of the underlying funds).

Or maybe you have some reason to prefer assets that produce even less than the "non-producing" one? Please explain.
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placeholder
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by placeholder »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:29 am I take it you're both against holding cash or short-term bonds in one's long-term AA (but never voiced your opinion)?

Many bond funds and balanced funds hold a lot of that (for example, in Vanguard Target Retirement Income, cash and short-term bonds make up about half of the fund, considering the short-term components of the underlying funds).

Or maybe you have some reason to prefer assets that produce even less than the "non-producing" one? Please explain.
You seem to be using "produce" in a nonstandard way because gold has no interest or dividends and those others do.
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

placeholder wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:44 am
HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:29 am I take it you're both against holding cash or short-term bonds in one's long-term AA (but never voiced your opinion)?

Many bond funds and balanced funds hold a lot of that (for example, in Vanguard Target Retirement Income, cash and short-term bonds make up about half of the fund, considering the short-term components of the underlying funds).

Or maybe you have some reason to prefer assets that produce even less than the "non-producing" one? Please explain.
You seem to be using "produce" in a nonstandard way because gold has no interest or dividends and those others do.
The chart posted upthread has cash showing losses in real terms. So if you consider real returns to be "nonstandard", okay.

The point is that some people favor assets (cash and/or short-term bonds) with persistently lower long-term returns than gold. I was asking for an explanation of that.
Last edited by HanSolo on Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Petrocelli
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Petrocelli »

My taxable portfolio is divided as follows:

50% VCITX - Long Term California Tax Free Bonds and the remaining half is split equally between GLD (gold), TLT (long term treasuries) and VTI (Wilshire 5000 Index).

Gold diversifies the portfolio. And it doesn't generate taxes until you sell.
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

ChrisRx wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 11:19 pm I love gold, but it lags behind stocks, real estate, etc.
So, outside of stocks and real estate, you hold bonds, cash and gold?

Of course we love them all!
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placeholder
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by placeholder »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:45 am The chart posted upthread has cash showing losses in real terms. So if you consider real returns to be "nonstandard", okay.
The fact that the production is less than inflation at times (the same is true for stocks) doesn't mean it isn't production and gold produces nothing because any change in value is due to speculation.
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

placeholder wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:37 am
HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:45 am The chart posted upthread has cash showing losses in real terms. So if you consider real returns to be "nonstandard", okay.
The fact that the production is less than inflation at times (the same is true for stocks) doesn't mean it isn't production and gold produces nothing because any change in value is due to speculation.
My bottom line is real return (total return after costs, taxes and inflation). What's yours?
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pasadena
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by pasadena »

None. I never understood the appeal of gold.
placeholder
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by placeholder »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:40 am My bottom line is real return (total return after costs, taxes and inflation). What's yours?
You are talking about return which is not the same thing as production so again I say that you are using terms in nonstandard ways so use the term you mean not a twisted version of another term.
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

placeholder wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:42 am
HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:40 am My bottom line is real return (total return after costs, taxes and inflation). What's yours?
You are talking about return which is not the same thing as production so again I say that you are using terms in nonstandard ways so use the term you mean not a twisted version of another term.
Sites like Investopedia use wording like "Joe sells an asset that produced a short-term capital gain of $1,000". Gold is one of the assets that can do that. If you have a problem with the wording being nonstandard, you should complain to Investopedia and other widely-read publications that use it that way.

Regarding twisted logic, I think a good example would be to use a one-word dismissal of gold ("non-producing") in order to justify accepting even lower returns from some other asset (like cash, or short-term bonds). But rather than accusing anyone of twisting something (like you did), I politely asked for an explanation. I haven't gotten it yet.

Can we get back to the topic? I think my question was on-topic. I'm still interested to know the answer to it.
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placeholder
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by placeholder »

Where did that article talk about producing anything?
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

placeholder wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:01 am Where did that article talk about producing anything?
My point was that "produced a capital gain" is not an unusual wording construct. If you want more details about the article, Google is your friend.

Instead of continuing a wording debate, can we get back to the topic?

My question is, those who are not in favor of holding gold, are you also not in favor of having an allocation to cash or short-term bonds in a long-term AA?

Can we please address that before beating the wording questions to death? Thank you.
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DonFifer
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by DonFifer »

I inherited my gold (and silver) position from my Dad. He was sure the commies were coming over the hill any minute now. I just don't have the heart to sell it.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by dcabler »

I've got a couple of silver coins that I received that I hold for sentimental reasons.
And of course we have DW's jewelry which are made from various precious metals, stones, and such.

I'm not a 3-fund type of boglehead, but in the past when I looked at adding gold as an investible asset, it would have done nothing good for my long term returns, at least not to the number of significant digits where it was worth caring about over any time period that mattered to me.
Last edited by dcabler on Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
seajay
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by seajay »

retired@50 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 11:46 am This chart from Jeremy Siegel's book "Stocks for the Long Run" sums it up for me.
ETA: To answer the OP's question, I don't own any gold, and the chart below is the reason why.

Image

Regards,
Pre 1930's and gold/US$ were the exact same. Commonly as inflation for centuries prior to that averaged 0% (gold is finite) investors held bonds that could be liquidated at any time into gold, a globally recognised/accepted currency. Bond interest was in effect the real rate of return. From the 1930's when that coupling ended a better choice would have been 50/50 stock/gold - or in the US's case since investment gold was outlawed, stock/silver, at least up until the mid 1970's when investment gold became lawful again. Draw another line similar to the relatively smooth upward sloping stock line, but with a 4.5% slope (real) and that would approximate the growth line for that, better than gold alone, better than hard US$ currency alone, and even better than bonds. You might say that a 50/50 barbell of stock/gold, two extremes, combines to a central bullet, similar to how a barbell of 1 and 20 year treasury bonds combine to a central 10 year bullet. And deploy that as a 'bond' alternative, 75/25 stock/gold instead of 50/50 stock/bond for instance. But 50/50 stock/gold alone might sit well for some/many. Across collective decades a bad decade for stocks typically saw gold do well, and vice versa.

The financial sector, the worlds largest/richest sector however, or the taxman, don't want you buying into the likes of 50/50 BRK/gold that generates no ongoing fees or taxable income streams as in the taxman's case they like the optionality of being able to perform largescale confiscations periodically, such as via a combination of high inflation and taxation that can easily surpass 100%+ tax rates. If the only time a taxable event arises is when assets are sold then during high taxation periods investors might simply opt to defer selling. Those that have attempted Wealth Tax failed, as it just pushes money/investment abroad.
As for Sweden, its tax brought in about $600 million a year, but ultimately cost the country some $200 billion in capital flight. Not worth it.
https://www.investors.com/politics/edit ... x-failure/
halfnine
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by halfnine »

I have an allocation to gold. The reason I hold gold is that historically across countries when held along with more traditional assets gold has done a good job of mitigating left tail SWRs. This, of course, has generally come at the expense of the right tail and also tended to shift the median a little to the left as well. But, since I don't need the right tails as much as I would prefer to avoid the extreme left tail this works fine for me.

Reasons I wouldn't hold gold:

1. Gold as an inflation hedge. Across countries there isn't any evidence that gold consistently and reliably protects one against local inflation across the short and intermediate terms.

2. Gold to protect against hyperinflation or "Mad Max" scenarios. Gold won't be of too much value during these crises. Once word gets out that you have gold seven armed guys are going to knock down your door at 3 AM and are going to start cutting off little Johnny's fingers until you hand it over. And they will seize your guns, ammo and any other valuables while they are at it. It is not going to matter if you are armed and try out your best "Yippee Ki Yay" impression. Unless you have your own small army you are going to be out of luck. Now you could instead probably have a few gold "wedding rings" and pawn them off in a few different places over time without raising too much suspicion. On the other hand, well hidden gold could help you restart after the crisis ends. However, if you are already at or near full retirement age you are likely not going to see the end of the crisis anyway. There also seems to be some misconception that gold is going to go up in value (3x, 5x, 10x). While this can be true in local currency this is not true in purchasing power. What gold has often done is retain its existing purchasing power for goods and services minus maybe a 20-30% crisis level redemption fee.

3. Gold to exit the country. In the modern era the days of leaving a country and easily migrating to a new one are over. And by the time you actually need gold to leave a country it is already too late. Whatever quotas foreign countries have allotted are long used up. And the odds of successfully acquiring refugee status are probably not much better than the odds of dying on the journey particularly if you are older or have pre-school aged children. And if this is the path you are choosing you should expect to get every orifice deeply inspected for valuables. And there are other potential pitfalls along the way (rape, forced marriages, slavery, etc.) that become apparent with even the most cursory exploration of this subject. My overall point....don't be lured by the ""my grandparents"" success bias stories. For every success story there is a disaster story as well but many of those people aren't around to tell the story. The simple reality is that if your tribe (religious, ethnic, etc.) is not actively being sanctioned to death you are going to be better off and often much more welcomed by simply staying at home. And if your tribe is going to be at risk then you need to own some foreign assets and leave early well before you might need gold to do it.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by carguyny »

I starting buying equal weight in 2016 of Physical Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Silver on a fixed monthly basis.

My holdings are up approximately 25% CAGR.

If I put the money into VTI over the same period with the same period is about the same CAGR (23.74%).

But more importantly, the correlation is about 0.27 if I use ETF proxies. I like the diversification benefit above all else.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by hudson »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:30 am
placeholder wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:01 am Where did that article talk about producing anything?
My point was that "produced a capital gain" is not an unusual wording construct. If you want more details about the article, Google is your friend.

Instead of continuing a wording debate, can we get back to the topic?

My question is, those who are not in favor of holding gold, are you also not in favor of having an allocation to cash or short-term bonds in a long-term AA?

Can we please address that before beating the wording questions to death? Thank you.
HansSolo,

I don't hold gold or silver, but I always read the discussions.
What's your system for holding gold? ETFs, coins, bars, Krugerands? Any silver?
Do you buy and hold or do you take profits?
If you personally hold gold, how do you safeguard it?
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HanSolo
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by HanSolo »

hudson wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:55 am HansSolo,

I don't hold gold or silver, but I always read the discussions.
What's your system for holding gold? ETFs, coins, bars, Krugerands? Any silver?
Do you buy and hold or do you take profits?
If you personally hold gold, how do you safeguard it?
As I mentioned upthread:
HanSolo wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:19 pm I hold about 5% of my portfolio in gold (via funds that hold physical gold, AAAU and CEF).
Just buy and hold... might rebalance if it veers away from 5%. CEF includes some silver.
VBIAX and chill
hudson
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by hudson »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:05 am
hudson wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:55 am HansSolo,

I don't hold gold or silver, but I always read the discussions.
What's your system for holding gold? ETFs, coins, bars, Krugerands? Any silver?
Do you buy and hold or do you take profits?
If you personally hold gold, how do you safeguard it?
As I mentioned upthread:
HanSolo wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:19 pm I hold about 5% of my portfolio in gold (via funds that hold physical gold, AAAU and CEF).
Just buy and hold... might rebalance if it veers away from 5%. CEF includes some silver.
Thanks HansSolo!
I looked up AAAU looking for the safety of the gold and found this: https://www.gsam.com/content/dam/gsam/p ... ?sa=n&rd=n
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by dcabler »

carguyny wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:48 am I starting buying equal weight in 2016 of Physical Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Silver on a fixed monthly basis.

My holdings are up approximately 25% CAGR.

If I put the money into VTI over the same period with the same period is about the same CAGR (23.74%).

But more importantly, the correlation is about 0.27 if I use ETF proxies. I like the diversification benefit above all else.
Yep, while I don't hold any precious metals myself, it seems clear that over the long term holding an asset that has low correlation to any other asset can provide increased diversification to a portfolio. There are even metrics out there which attempt to quantify the amount of diversification as explained in this thread (and others): viewtopic.php?t=251043

Unfortunately, improving diversification won't guarantee improved performance - nothing will. But that usually isn't the point of improving diversification anyway.

Cheers.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by LadyGeek »

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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by midareff »

I remember my immediate post college days when gold was $800 an ounce. Now it's $1800 an ounce. Unfortunately, my immediate post college days were 50 years ago. In 1970 the average closing price of the S&P500 was 83.15, yesterday it closed at 4419.15 you do the math. Gold is what you make jewelry out of because it doesn't corrode on you skin. The S&P is what you buy if you want to own companies that have businesses. I own a couple of ounces of gold, some of it holding really nice looking stones in place.
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JoMoney
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by JoMoney »

How much gold do I own and why?
Not sure exactly, probably about 3 grams in a dental crown. It's on a molar, and I've been lead to believe gold crowns might be slightly more durable than the ceramic ones, and since it's in the back of the mouth it doesn't stand out much.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

I have six, one ounce gold proof coins purchased from the US Mint. I collect coins, so I bought a few when they first were struck.

In a one ounce coin, I don't see gold being helpful in general. Who is going to make change for your coin? Now if it was to slip away from your area, bribes, private travel, might be fine.

I also have a lot of proof silver coins. And I have silver rounds, much more appropriate for barter, IMHO.

Still, skepticism is present. I believe the first time one uses gold as barter, you are marked. Barter isn't like going to the grocery store, you needn't worry if the store manager is going to follow you home and steal from you. Not sure about trust element of barter.

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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by halfnine »

midareff wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:56 am I remember my immediate post college days when gold was $800 an ounce. Now it's $1800 an ounce. Unfortunately, my immediate post college days were 50 years ago. In 1970 the average closing price of the S&P500 was 83.15, yesterday it closed at 4419.15 you do the math. Gold is what you make jewelry out of because it doesn't corrode on you skin. The S&P is what you buy if you want to own companies that have businesses. I own a couple of ounces of gold, some of it holding really nice looking stones in place.
In 1970 the price of gold was around $38. The math comes out pretty good for that time frame. You should pick better starting dates for your argument.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Da5id »

halfnine wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:46 am
midareff wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:56 am I remember my immediate post college days when gold was $800 an ounce. Now it's $1800 an ounce. Unfortunately, my immediate post college days were 50 years ago. In 1970 the average closing price of the S&P500 was 83.15, yesterday it closed at 4419.15 you do the math. Gold is what you make jewelry out of because it doesn't corrode on you skin. The S&P is what you buy if you want to own companies that have businesses. I own a couple of ounces of gold, some of it holding really nice looking stones in place.
In 1970 the price of gold was around $38. The math comes out pretty good for that time frame. You should pick better starting dates for your argument.
But yours is better? Yours does have the strong point of the new gold era starting ~then with the ending of pegging the dollar. But single start points to "prove" a point are weak generally IMO.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by halfnine »

Da5id wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:50 am
halfnine wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:46 am
midareff wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:56 am I remember my immediate post college days when gold was $800 an ounce. Now it's $1800 an ounce. Unfortunately, my immediate post college days were 50 years ago. In 1970 the average closing price of the S&P500 was 83.15, yesterday it closed at 4419.15 you do the math. Gold is what you make jewelry out of because it doesn't corrode on you skin. The S&P is what you buy if you want to own companies that have businesses. I own a couple of ounces of gold, some of it holding really nice looking stones in place.
In 1970 the price of gold was around $38. The math comes out pretty good for that time frame. You should pick better starting dates for your argument.
But yours is better? Yours does have the strong point of the new gold era starting ~then with the ending of pegging the dollar. But single start points to "prove" a point are weak generally IMO.
I have offered no starting point. I have simply let midareff know that they have provided the wrong starting point to make a point. However we do agree that single starting points to "prove" anything are quite weak.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by SmileyFace »

How much gold do I own and why?
A few pieces of jewelry because they are pretty.
Zero as an investment, because I am with Buffet - not a real investment- doesn't produce anything.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by hnd »

we will likely inherit a handful of pounds of physical gold in various shapes and sizes at some point. knowing that is there is enough for me to know i don't want to hold it in my portfolio at the moment.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by RoadagentMN »

Gold Bugs lol - Howard Ruff is holding on line#1
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Ocean77 »

retired@50 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 11:46 am This chart from Jeremy Siegel's book "Stocks for the Long Run" sums it up for me.
ETA: To answer the OP's question, I don't own any gold, and the chart below is the reason why.

Image

Regards,
It's funny, I know this chart and it is the reason I own gold. Not as a replacement for stocks of course, but for a portion of our cash holding. The chart shows that unlike cash, gold maintains the purchasing power over time.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by gwe67 »

This subject has been covered ad nauseum, but here's an example of why gold is such a ripoff. Yeah, I know there are lower prices available, but index funds don't charge purchase fees, storage fees, or selling fees. Cost to own gold for 5 years using this broker = 1.4%. Cost to own VTI for 5 years = 0.15%.

Image
VTI 48%, VXUS 12%, BND 40%
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by nigel_ht »

halfnine wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:36 am 2. Gold to protect against hyperinflation or "Mad Max" scenarios. Gold won't be of too much value during these crises. Once word gets out that you have gold seven armed guys are going to knock down your door at 3 AM and are going to start cutting off little Johnny's fingers until you hand it over. And they will seize your guns, ammo and any other valuables while they are at it.
"“More than half our clients want to pay in gold,” said one estate agent in Puerto Ordaz, who described a recent nerve-racking drive through the increasingly lawless city to broker a deal, following buyers carrying an apartment’s worth of precious metal.

“The client said ‘come in our car’, but I said: ‘No, we are traveling behind you.’ With the insecurity you don’t know who knows you have gold,” added the agent, who is still struggling with the new norms of doing business, and asked not to be named for her safety.

Even the universities have been swept up in the gold rush. “In November, one of the girls who is studying here told me: ‘A degree is not expensive, because its only 2.5g of gold [for a semester],’” said Arturo Peraza, rector of the city’s influential Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. “It was the first time I learned the value of a university education in grams of gold. I could not have imagined it.”"


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... rmed-gangs

Yes, if you have a lot of gold and no guards then gangs will come and take it. If you only have a little bit then it has just replaced cash in the local economy. It's certainly not a good place to be but you can't argue that:

a) Gold doesn't get used when money stops working due to hyperinflation. It is happening in Venezuela.

or

b) Gangs will come steal the small pittance that you have any different then they would have done when money had value and you had cash. If this constantly happened then a gold driven local economy seen Puerto Ordaz wouldn't work.
3. Gold to exit the country.
...
My overall point....don't be lured by the ""my grandparents"" success bias stories.
These aren't grandparent success stories. Many of the Vietnamese refugees (boat people) are my age or younger. While I could be a grandparent by now these stories aren't from some ancient time in the past but experienced by contemporaries.

Are they biased? Around 1.3M left Vietnam. The ones that made it here to the US do represent survivorship bias but the outcome was much better than if they had stayed. About 10% died along the way...although some estimates are as high as 300K. 424K made it to the US.

Is it a good reason to hold gold for US citizens? I guess that depends on a lot of factors. Some economic and some personal.
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by Ocean77 »

gwe67 wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:49 am This subject has been covered ad nauseum, but here's an example of why gold is such a ripoff. Yeah, I know there are lower prices available, but index funds don't charge purchase fees, storage fees, or selling fees. Cost to own gold for 5 years using this broker = 1.4%. Cost to own VTI for 5 years = 0.15%.

Image
You should compare apples to apples:
1. Compare buying/selling a stock index fund/ETF vs a gold ETF, or
2. Compare buying/selling a business, factory or rental building vs physical gold
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gwe67
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Re: How much Gold do you own and why?

Post by gwe67 »

[/quote]
It is happening in Venezuela.
[/quote]

The USA has sanctions against Venezuela, causing inflation and economic mayhem. There isn't another country that is able to put sanctions against the USA. The OP is from Israel, and holding gold may be desirable there for political or other reasons, but that's not the case in the USA.
Last edited by gwe67 on Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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