Inflation could be 20% in the next three years [Sell bonds?]
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Inflation could be 20% in the next three years [Sell bonds?]
This is an eye opening interview with Jerey Seigel on CNBC.
https://youtu.be/t3ygJbJjocI
If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds?
The bigger question is how will this temporary money printing work against long term deflationary forces like technology, outsourcing and demographics?
https://youtu.be/t3ygJbJjocI
If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds?
The bigger question is how will this temporary money printing work against long term deflationary forces like technology, outsourcing and demographics?
Last edited by invest2bfree on Sat May 15, 2021 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
36% (IRA) - Individual LT Corporate Bonds , 33%(taxable) - schy, 33%(taxable) - SCHD Dividend Growth
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
So, since you have no bonds you want to sell mine?
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I take it back, I do hold 5% in VGSH as my emergency funds.
36% (IRA) - Individual LT Corporate Bonds , 33%(taxable) - schy, 33%(taxable) - SCHD Dividend Growth
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
invest2bfree,invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:57 am This is an eye opening interview with Jerey Seigel on CNBC.
https://youtu.be/t3ygJbJjocI
If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds? BTW I don't have any.
The bigger question is how will this temporary money printing work against long term deflationary forces like technology, outsourcing and demographics?
1) The prediction may not be true.
2) Even if the prediction is true, how would you know the stock will not be crushed?
<<If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed.>>
3) Ditto, even if the prediction is true, how would you know that the bond will be crushed?
4) Please explain how would you know the above to be true?
5) If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?
I know that I know nothing.
<<BTW I don't have any.>>
It is a bad idea to put all your eggs in one basket. It is a bad idea to assume that you can predict the future.
KlangFool
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
"If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?"
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
36% (IRA) - Individual LT Corporate Bonds , 33%(taxable) - schy, 33%(taxable) - SCHD Dividend Growth
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
What is the average daily volume of bond trades? What is the average daily volume of Fed purchases?invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am "If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?"
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I just accept that as part of my investing approach that of course there will be times that bonds will be hammered, but I'm not really sure when this is going to be. Maybe it will be in the next three years. Maybe it won't be in the next three years. I've given up on trying to figure out when these types of things are going to happen. My approach does not call for me to avoid being in certain asset classes just because they will go down some of the time. My approach is to remain in these asset classes all of the time--this is the way I'm assured of getting the benefit of the growth.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
According to Wikipedia,invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am "If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?"
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
QE1 - 11/2008 - 6/2010
QE2 - 11/2010 - Second Quarter 2011
QE3 - 9/2012 - 2013
QE4 - 9/2019 - ???
I'm still waiting for the rampant inflation from QE1.
I know that I know nothing and continue buying stocks and bonds, aiming for 40% bonds. Started adding TIPS to my bond allocation.
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
+1KlangFool wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:05 aminvest2bfree,invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:57 am This is an eye opening interview with Jerey Seigel on CNBC.
https://youtu.be/t3ygJbJjocI
If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds? BTW I don't have any.
The bigger question is how will this temporary money printing work against long term deflationary forces like technology, outsourcing and demographics?
1) The prediction may not be true.
2) Even if the prediction is true, how would you know the stock will not be crushed?
<<If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed.>>
3) Ditto, even if the prediction is true, how would you know that the bond will be crushed?
4) Please explain how would you know the above to be true?
5) If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?
I know that I know nothing.
<<BTW I don't have any.>>
It is a bad idea to put all your eggs in one basket. It is a bad idea to assume that you can predict the future.
KlangFool
There are lots of known strong, countervailing forces at play. Add to that the unknown surprises that can come into being and it makes predicting (and especially predicting with timing) at very best an educated guess. So I'm in agreement with KlangFool about the danger of putting all eggs in one basket.
That said, I am concerned about inflation. One thing I'll be watching for in that regard is the payout ratios for annuities. If inflation causes a rise in interest rates and a corresponding rise in annuity payouts, then I may well spring for one.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Could be,
Might be,
May be,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Nobody knows nothing ...
- Ron
Might be,
May be,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Nobody knows nothing ...
- Ron
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I can’t do anything about it! No body knows nuttin!
I will stay the course!
Tony
I will stay the course!
Tony
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
What it would be valuable here is for Siegel to show his before/after portfolio.
First, show the composition of his investments, then prediction of 20% inflation, second changes to his portfolio to reflect adjustments based on his prediction.
Otherwise, for all we know he makes this predictions but he in fact stays the course!
First, show the composition of his investments, then prediction of 20% inflation, second changes to his portfolio to reflect adjustments based on his prediction.
Otherwise, for all we know he makes this predictions but he in fact stays the course!
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Time will tell. In the meantime I take solace in the fact I have an investment that provides some protection from inflation, I-bonds.
Personally I don't believe we will see 20% inflation, if we do, so be it. Inflation has been predicted for so long, with little accuracy, it seems foolish to worry about it every time it is mentioned.
One day the prediction of high inflation might come true. Since I don't know when, I'll just continue maintaining our present AA. We have a bunch of equity holdings (55%), we have a bunch of bond holdings (45%). Not sure what would be a better portfolio than what we currently have.
Broken Man 1999
Personally I don't believe we will see 20% inflation, if we do, so be it. Inflation has been predicted for so long, with little accuracy, it seems foolish to worry about it every time it is mentioned.
One day the prediction of high inflation might come true. Since I don't know when, I'll just continue maintaining our present AA. We have a bunch of equity holdings (55%), we have a bunch of bond holdings (45%). Not sure what would be a better portfolio than what we currently have.
Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go." - Mark Twain
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
That is an outrageous claim
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
invest2bfree,invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am "If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?"
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
Here we go again. If YOU know this, so does everyone else. Everyone else would priced that in their purchase of stock and bond. Hence, it is reflected in the market price of the stock and the bond.
What do you know that NO ONE ELSE know? And, if you do know something, you would be VERY RICH. There is no reason to post anything at the forum.
I know that I know nothing.
KlangFool
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
So personally, we have never owned nominal bonds, and I do think they are riskier than some people seem to realize.
That said, once you have committed to a long term allocation plan, staying the course is critical, and trying to time the markets can be a disaster.
So, my two cents is if you already have bonds per plan, you should now stay the course. And if you are supposed to rebalance to bonds if they fall in portfolio percentage, then do that too.
That said, once you have committed to a long term allocation plan, staying the course is critical, and trying to time the markets can be a disaster.
So, my two cents is if you already have bonds per plan, you should now stay the course. And if you are supposed to rebalance to bonds if they fall in portfolio percentage, then do that too.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
The answer is absolutely not. Short-term treasuries, and even intermediate-term treasuries, performed admirably in the hyperinflation of the 1970s.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:57 am This is an eye opening interview with Jerey Seigel on CNBC.
https://youtu.be/t3ygJbJjocI
If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds?
The bigger question is how will this temporary money printing work against long term deflationary forces like technology, outsourcing and demographics?
They handily outperformed the US stock market from 1973-1979, and they nearly kept pace with inflation in this most devastating hyper inflationary period.
The answer is to stay the course and tune out the noise.
Last edited by whereskyle on Sat May 15, 2021 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Who is we? You think I would let you sell even some of my bonds, never mind all of them?
I always love headlines that use the term "could". The are never wrong! Inflation could be 712% in the next few minutes!
Another fun phrase is "up to". Guaranteed to return up to 348% on your investments!
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
If you use "up to" and "at least" in the same paragraph, you are covered.JoeRetire wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 1:41 pmWho is we? You think I would let you sell even some of my bonds, never mind all of them?
I always love headlines that use the term "could". The are never wrong! Inflation could be 712% in the next few minutes!
Another fun phrase is "up to". Guaranteed to return up to 348% on your investments!
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
If inflation is the concern, then the rational response is not to abandon fixed income, but to make sure most of your fixed income is inflation-linked fixed income. Most of my fixed income is in TIPS funds and series I savings bonds, and this isn't any recent maneuver on my part, I've been heavy in TIPS ever since they were introduced.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:57 am...If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds?
If inflation reached 20% per year, then it is possible that TIPS bonds and series I savings bonds might outperform stocks.
Is it really possible for TIPS to outperform stocks?
Yes, we know it's possible because it has actually happened--during 2000-2009. For example, as shown here, the American Century Inflation-Adjust Bonds Fund beat inflation, while the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund did not.
Source
Even with nominal bonds, if inflation reaches 20% per year, than, certainly, bonds bought today with 1% or 2% coupons will be crushed, but newly issued bonds may not be. The 10-year Treasury rate hit 15.84% in 1981.
Last edited by nisiprius on Sat May 15, 2021 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I am confused by your response to KlangFool's observation that all the things you pointed out earlier are well known and priced in.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am "If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?"
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
Are you suggesting that QE is something other people have not heard about, so it might not already be priced in as KlangFool suggest?!?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I'd rather own bonds at double digit inflation than equities. But I'd rather own short term bonds that I would continue to roll over. Of course, if I can get a 30 year bond at 12%, I'd sell all of my equities and just own that.
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Yes!MoonOrb wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:20 am I just accept that as part of my investing approach that of course there will be times that bonds will be hammered, but I'm not really sure when this is going to be. Maybe it will be in the next three years. Maybe it won't be in the next three years. I've given up on trying to figure out when these types of things are going to happen. My approach does not call for me to avoid being in certain asset classes just because they will go down some of the time. My approach is to remain in these asset classes all of the time--this is the way I'm assured of getting the benefit of the growth.
Marty....don't go to the year 2020....Dr. Emmett Brown
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I would be shocked to see such severe inflation but am prepared for it, my non-stock money is mostly in I bonds right now.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Nisiprius: Do you own ACITX? If not, may I ask what TIPS funds you own or consider to be a rational addition to one's fixed income at this time?nisiprius wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 1:50 pmIf inflation is the concern, then the rational response is not to abandon fixed income, but to make sure most of your fixed income is inflation-linked fixed income. Most of my fixed income is in TIPS funds and series I savings bonds, and this isn't any recent maneuver on my part, I've been heavy in TIPS ever since they were introduced.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:57 am...If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds?
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
There is no pricing in QE, Fed is not a market participant. They are market manipulators.marcopolo wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 1:55 pmI am confused by your response to KlangFool's observation that all the things you pointed out earlier are well known and priced in.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am "If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?"
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
Are you suggesting that QE is something other people have not heard about, so it might not already be priced in as KlangFool suggest?!?
Can you imaging somebody who has unlimited firepower taking other side of the trade?
36% (IRA) - Individual LT Corporate Bonds , 33%(taxable) - schy, 33%(taxable) - SCHD Dividend Growth
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
With the amount of debt outstanding it is not possible to have interest rates go up. Fed is going to be the last man standing absorbing all the money printing from the treasury.
Will the dollar be hit as Stanley Druckenmiller is pointing out remains to be seen.
36% (IRA) - Individual LT Corporate Bonds , 33%(taxable) - schy, 33%(taxable) - SCHD Dividend Growth
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
He's not saying 20% per year. He's saying 20% over 3 years so 6+% per year.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I can imagine it because it has been going on for more than a decade.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 2:24 pmThere is no pricing in QE, Fed is not a market participant. They are market manipulators.marcopolo wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 1:55 pmI am confused by your response to KlangFool's observation that all the things you pointed out earlier are well known and priced in.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am "If you know this, so does everyone else. Why won't they priced in the inflation for the bond that they issued and buy? So, why would the bond's price change if the information had been priced in?"
Have you heard a term called QE it has been discussed around here.
Imagine if you are buyer of 1.2 Trillion in Bonds would anybody step in front of you?
If not for Fed intervention bonds would be 5% and stock could be crashing.
Are you suggesting that QE is something other people have not heard about, so it might not already be priced in as KlangFool suggest?!?
Can you imaging somebody who has unlimited firepower taking other side of the trade?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Did he specifically predict 20% cpi inflation, or was he referring to inflation in real assets?
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Good point, though that would still result in big real losses for bonds, by bond standards at least.
The Sensible Steward
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Rarely do people apply the term 'inflation' to real assets (e.g., stocks, real estate).
The Sensible Steward
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Which a bit above the early prognostications for SS COLA next year:
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/05/12 ... s%20League.
- Ron
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Thank you. Everyone seems to be missing this.
It’s not much different at all from what he’s been saying since the CARES act was passed. They’ll inflate it away… a couple years of 4-5% changes the whole deficit picture.
I happen to agree. But no one knows for sure.
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Maybe an unpopular opinion: I feel like click bait such as this should be locked in this forum.
cheers ... -Mark |
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Still an outrageous claimmbasherp wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 3:00 pmThank you. Everyone seems to be missing this.
It’s not much different at all from what he’s been saying since the CARES act was passed. They’ll inflate it away… a couple years of 4-5% changes the whole deficit picture.
I happen to agree. But no one knows for sure.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
J.Powell: "We understand our job we will do our job and we are focused as you seen for many years We have been focused on inflation "deviating" below 2%, and we used our tools aggressively to put it back up at 2% if we do see inflation moving materially above 2% persistent way the risks of inflation expectation drifting up then we will use our tools to guide inflation and expectation back down to 2% no one should doubt that we will do that this is not what we expect but no one should doubt that in the event we will be prepared to use our tools."invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 2:28 pmWith the amount of debt outstanding it is not possible to have interest rates go up. Fed is going to be the last man standing absorbing all the money printing from the treasury.
YouTube video link
Begins at the 4:30 mark.
Edit: Also...
"Siegel believes inflation will surge a bracing 20% over the next three or four years. That means it could be as high as 6.7% annually during that span...Siegel predicted that the Federal Reserve, which has held short-term rates near zero and says it intends to do so for the next two years, will end up hiking them later in 2021."
Last edited by Robot Monster on Sat May 15, 2021 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
What do you think makes it 'click bait'?
Siegel certainly isn't the average Joe Blow hack writing financial 'reporter'. He's one of the most brilliant minds in the finance space, though neither he nor anyone else is infallible.
The Sensible Steward
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
noun: click baitwillthrill81 wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 3:15 pmWhat do you think makes it 'click bait'?
Siegel certainly isn't the average Joe Blow hack writing financial 'reporter'. He's one of the most brilliant minds in the finance space, though neither he nor anyone else is infallible.
(on the internet) content whose main purpose is to attract attention and encourage visitors to click on a link to a particular web page.
cheers ... -Mark |
"Our life is frittered away with detail. Simplify. Simplify." -Henry David Thoreau |
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Yeah, I understand that. Listening to it again he said over the next 2 or 3 years we could have 20% inflation. I wonder if he means cumulative inflation over 2 or 3 years.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 2:46 pmRarely do people apply the term 'inflation' to real assets (e.g., stocks, real estate).
If we had 20% annualized CPI inflation the you know what would hit the fan.
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Well nobody forces you to click on that youtube link in the OP. It's not like the OP promised one thing, and the video then was something else, like a sales pitch.
Personally, I think we will get higher inflation. The economic disruption caused by the pandemic is causing shortages that will persist for quite some time. Shortage = higher prices. Just look here for one example: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=348868
Personally, I think we will get higher inflation. The economic disruption caused by the pandemic is causing shortages that will persist for quite some time. Shortage = higher prices. Just look here for one example: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=348868
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
By that definition, a TV interview isn't click bait. And I don't think that Siegel mentioned a web site either.avenger wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 3:19 pmnoun: click baitwillthrill81 wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 3:15 pmWhat do you think makes it 'click bait'?
Siegel certainly isn't the average Joe Blow hack writing financial 'reporter'. He's one of the most brilliant minds in the finance space, though neither he nor anyone else is infallible.
(on the internet) content whose main purpose is to attract attention and encourage visitors to click on a link to a particular web page.
I've repeatedly been saying myself for a while now that I wouldn't be surprised at all by 4-5% annual inflation for a few years, and that's not far from what Siegel is apparently suggesting (e.g., 20% cumulative inflation over the next three years).
The Sensible Steward
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Yes this is what I think he meant.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 3:13 pm "Siegel believes inflation will surge a bracing 20% over the next three or four years. That means it could be as high as 6.7% annually during that span..
mbasherp wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 3:00 pmThank you. Everyone seems to be missing this.
It’s not much different at all from what he’s been saying since the CARES act was passed. They’ll inflate it away… a couple years of 4-5% changes the whole deficit picture.
I happen to agree. But no one knows for sure.
Yes
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Headline catcher to be sure.
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
Well if we get several years for prices to go up 20% then I bet he’s right. I can easily predict 20% inflation if I don’t have to say how long it takes.
This time is the same
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
I can and did do something about it. I invested my entire fixed income portfolio in a ten year TIPS ladder over the last five plus years. Despite a negative real yield on my latest rung and a half, the overall portfolio will still pay a positive real rate of return (based upon my original purchase prices) regardless of 20% inflation over three years. I'm not saying I knew "sumtin," I'm just saying.
Aren't you the guy who had the "TIPS outta here" thread a year or two ago Tony?
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Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
No! Spreadsheets out of here! Bunny took them!FIREchief wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 3:45 pmI can and did do something about it. I invested my entire fixed income portfolio in a ten year TIPS ladder over the last five plus years. Despite a negative real yield on my latest rung and a half, the overall portfolio will still pay a positive real rate of return (based upon my original purchase prices) regardless of 20% inflation over three years. I'm not saying I knew "sumtin," I'm just saying.
Aren't you the guy who had the "TIPS outta here" thread a year or two ago Tony?
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
The bigger question is to you believe Siegel, who is just saying stuff, or what the bond market is predicting, where big pocket institutions vote with their wallets.invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:57 am This is an eye opening interview with Jerey Seigel on CNBC.
https://youtu.be/t3ygJbJjocI
If this comes true we will see fixed income being crushed. Do we sell all your bonds?
The bigger question is how will this temporary money printing work against long term deflationary forces like technology, outsourcing and demographics?
5 Year Breakeven inflation is not even close to what Siegel is saying:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder