Crypto mania !

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Gadget
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Gadget »

Kookaburra wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:59 pm
gwe67 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:42 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:40 pm
gwe67 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:38 pm Pay attention and you will see that there are several similar crypto posts. You crypto fans can comment there and not create a new crypto post every day. Or maybe go to another forum where this is relevant.
Or you could pass by the post since you shouldn’t be interested right?
Oh, look....another new crypto post just started one minute ago.

viewtopic.php?p=5994354#p5994354
Yep ... but in my defense I also just posted a question about I-bonds, which is the polar opposite. I’m an enigma :)
I'm right there with you. I track my I bonds and EE bonds in my Google sheet just like I do my crypto... Granted one is a lot more exciting to watch than the other.

It's not like they can ban you from purchasing crypto if you also own I Bonds. At least they haven't yet...
SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 6:48 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:04 pm
I continued my DCA through 2008. But I would never say it was beneficial and I'd much rather it had never happened because of the damage to the general economy and the lives, occupations and aspirations of many people. If you really think it was beneficial and want another panic -- well, I'd say our POVs are vastly different.

What about 1929 ? Do you think that was beneficial too ?
I wasn’t alive then, but I’m sure whatever businesses and regulation that came out of it lined up the recovery that came after. 1999 the same thing but if I had money then I’m sure I would’ve thrown many dollars at the market. Collapses tend to show vulnerabilities and they get patched up, part of the ups and downs of the market.
Well, it's easy to be sure when you weren't actually faced with a grinding crash in 1929, massive unemployment, food lines (no safety net too), and lots of false starts and failures before recovery (which didn't come for a long time and only after a surge of WW-2 spending). You can consider that sort of environment beneficial if you prefer. I certainly won't.

I'm not just a passive investor in the economy, I'm also a participant. As are the vast majority of Americans -- as employees, employers, retirees, home owners, job hunters, or with family members in those situations. And I don't think they consider financial panics beneficial.
Last edited by SlowMovingInvestor on Sat May 08, 2021 7:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

JohnDindex wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 1:49 pm I happen to have 3 friends who are financial advisors. All 3 of them have told me a similar story in the last 30 days. They have existing clients and new prospects that are crypto millionaires. Too much to write but crazy stories, people in their 30’s worth 4-6 million dollars. The advisors are obviously pushing them to sell enough and invest normally but it’s just insane. Some of them are wanting to double down, pull money from traditional investments, and even use leverage.

One of them said to me: “ I think when this thing pops, it might trigger a collapse in markets etc”

I own no crypto and I have no desire.

What do the bogleheads think? Could a crypto bubble burst cause a financial panic ?
WSJ doesn't think it's a systemic danger yet because the total market cap, $2.4T is still small compared to stocks and bonds.

If it keeps getting bigger, though, the danger will get bigger.

If people are selling stocks to buy crypto that's deflationary for stocks....given current valuations, perhaps not such a bad thing.
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SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

Kookaburra wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:59 pm
Yep ... but in my defense I also just posted a question about I-bonds, which is the polar opposite. I’m an enigma :)
Not really. If someone is concerned about inflation, one might consider pure crypto (like BTC) and I-Bonds.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:48 pm

Hold some good old US Savings Bonds or Treasuries.
I've got an LMP ladder of TIPS and STRIPS to cover living expenses for the next 16 years.

And a modest allocation to crypto.

I guess that's not a common combo.
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HomerJ
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 6:48 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:04 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:59 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:52 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:33 pm
So it’s not beneficial when markets panic, and you can pick up stocks or index funds at a better price?
Do you think 1929 was beneficial ? Or even 2008 ?

1929 is an extreme case, but market panics don't take place in a vacuum. And they don't always come back very quickly (as happened last year). For someone who's working, panics can impact their jobs, or the jobs/prospects of family members/children. Or their house values, turning them upside down and making it harder to move, as happened post 2008. Lots of layoff post dotcom crash or post 2009.

Those are far more important to most people than the ability to pick up a few shares at a discount. It took a long time for many stocks to recover from the dotcom crash, and many didn't recover. Now, if you're a Big Shorter or a vulture' funds that scooped up SFH at a discount, yes, you'll win big, but most people won't.

Even if my job were totally secure and I could make money from picking up index funds at a lower price in a panic, I would not want one simply because of the impact on those less well positioned.
I guess that’s where we differ, I’ll pick up every share I can get my hands on as I did with 2008 and 2020.
2020 was an unusual case, because it was driven by a non financial markets event. But yes, I certainly wish that event had not occurred and the market had not crashed.

I continued my DCA through 2008. But I would never say it was beneficial and I'd much rather it had never happened because of the damage to the general economy and the lives, occupations and aspirations of many people. If you really think it was beneficial and want another panic -- well, I'd say our POVs are vastly different.

What about 1929 ? Do you think that was beneficial too ?
I wasn’t alive then, but I’m sure whatever businesses and regulation that came out of it lined up the recovery that came after. 1999 the same thing but if I had money then I’m sure I would’ve thrown many dollars at the market. Collapses tend to show vulnerabilities and they get patched up, part of the ups and downs of the market.
You're not really getting the point Green Street. If you lose your job (and many do in most crashes, but especially in 1929), you don't have any money to throw into market during the crash.

You're very new here. It's been a common comment "Man, I wish we could have another huge crash like 2008" or now, "like 2020!"

Except in 2008, many people lost their homes and their jobs, and in 2020, many people lost their LIVES.

So understand it's a bit dark to wish for a global crash so that you can get richer.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:32 pm My wife’s friend apparently is a crypto success story and my wife has been after me to buy Doge coin for a few weeks now
So we just opened Robinhood account to do so with Money we were willing to lose !
Are you concerned that you're a bit late to the Doge party?
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SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

HomerJ wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:25 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 6:48 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:04 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:59 pm
I guess that’s where we differ, I’ll pick up every share I can get my hands on as I did with 2008 and 2020.
2020 was an unusual case, because it was driven by a non financial markets event. But yes, I certainly wish that event had not occurred and the market had not crashed.

I continued my DCA through 2008. But I would never say it was beneficial and I'd much rather it had never happened because of the damage to the general economy and the lives, occupations and aspirations of many people. If you really think it was beneficial and want another panic -- well, I'd say our POVs are vastly different.

What about 1929 ? Do you think that was beneficial too ?
I wasn’t alive then, but I’m sure whatever businesses and regulation that came out of it lined up the recovery that came after. 1999 the same thing but if I had money then I’m sure I would’ve thrown many dollars at the market. Collapses tend to show vulnerabilities and they get patched up, part of the ups and downs of the market.
You're not really getting the point Green Street. If you lose your job (and many do in most crashes, but especially in 1929), you don't have any money to throw into market during the crash.

You're very new here. It's been a common comment "Man, I wish we could have another huge crash like 2008" or now, "like 2020!"

Except in 2008, many people lost their homes and their jobs, and in 2020, many people lost their LIVES.

So understand it's a bit dark to wish for a global crash so that you can get richer.
+1
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Robert T wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:48 pm
In my view the investment process is to maximize the likelihood of achieving a target outcome (eg retirement income etc). i.e. to reduce the likely dispersion of outcomes around a particular target. Crypto currencies seem to do the opposite with its level of volatility dwarfing other assets.
Yes, the beta is very high, so, from a portfolio construction POV, you don't need to hold a lot.

Risk Parity of VT::EHTE is a 6.7 : 1 ratio.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/opt ... ints=false
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Green Street
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Green Street »

SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:14 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 6:48 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:04 pm
I continued my DCA through 2008. But I would never say it was beneficial and I'd much rather it had never happened because of the damage to the general economy and the lives, occupations and aspirations of many people. If you really think it was beneficial and want another panic -- well, I'd say our POVs are vastly different.

What about 1929 ? Do you think that was beneficial too ?
I wasn’t alive then, but I’m sure whatever businesses and regulation that came out of it lined up the recovery that came after. 1999 the same thing but if I had money then I’m sure I would’ve thrown many dollars at the market. Collapses tend to show vulnerabilities and they get patched up, part of the ups and downs of the market.
Well, it's easy to be sure when you weren't actually faced with a grinding crash in 1929, massive unemployment, food lines (no safety net too), and lots of false starts and failures before recovery (which didn't come for a long time and only after a surge of WW-2 spending). You can consider that sort of environment beneficial if you prefer. I certainly won't.

I'm not just a passive investor in the economy, I'm also a participant. As are the vast majority of Americans -- as employees, employers, retirees, home owners, job hunters, or with family members in those situations. And I don't think they consider financial panics beneficial.
And I feel that people should be prepared for the possibilities of job loss, economic downturns, real estate market crashes. If they weren’t prepared then that’s on them. So yes, I view financial panics as beneficial because I’m prepared for them.
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Green Street
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Green Street »

HomerJ wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:25 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 6:48 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:04 pm
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:59 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:52 pm

Do you think 1929 was beneficial ? Or even 2008 ?

1929 is an extreme case, but market panics don't take place in a vacuum. And they don't always come back very quickly (as happened last year). For someone who's working, panics can impact their jobs, or the jobs/prospects of family members/children. Or their house values, turning them upside down and making it harder to move, as happened post 2008. Lots of layoff post dotcom crash or post 2009.

Those are far more important to most people than the ability to pick up a few shares at a discount. It took a long time for many stocks to recover from the dotcom crash, and many didn't recover. Now, if you're a Big Shorter or a vulture' funds that scooped up SFH at a discount, yes, you'll win big, but most people won't.

Even if my job were totally secure and I could make money from picking up index funds at a lower price in a panic, I would not want one simply because of the impact on those less well positioned.
I guess that’s where we differ, I’ll pick up every share I can get my hands on as I did with 2008 and 2020.
2020 was an unusual case, because it was driven by a non financial markets event. But yes, I certainly wish that event had not occurred and the market had not crashed.

I continued my DCA through 2008. But I would never say it was beneficial and I'd much rather it had never happened because of the damage to the general economy and the lives, occupations and aspirations of many people. If you really think it was beneficial and want another panic -- well, I'd say our POVs are vastly different.

What about 1929 ? Do you think that was beneficial too ?
I wasn’t alive then, but I’m sure whatever businesses and regulation that came out of it lined up the recovery that came after. 1999 the same thing but if I had money then I’m sure I would’ve thrown many dollars at the market. Collapses tend to show vulnerabilities and they get patched up, part of the ups and downs of the market.
You're not really getting the point Green Street. If you lose your job (and many do in most crashes, but especially in 1929), you don't have any money to throw into market during the crash.

You're very new here. It's been a common comment "Man, I wish we could have another huge crash like 2008" or now, "like 2020!"

Except in 2008, many people lost their homes and their jobs, and in 2020, many people lost their LIVES.

So understand it's a bit dark to wish for a global crash so that you can get richer.
If you’re prepared then youre prepared. I am. Has nothing to do with being new. I threw down during 2008, again in 2020, and will so again on the next one. Whether you like or not, or think I’m dark or not..when markets crash, there’s opportunity.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Jimsad »

watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:28 pm
Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:32 pm My wife’s friend apparently is a crypto success story and my wife has been after me to buy Doge coin for a few weeks now
So we just opened Robinhood account to do so with Money we were willing to lose !
Are you concerned that you're a bit late to the Doge party?
May be
But I have peace at home now
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anon_investor
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by anon_investor »

watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:24 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:48 pm

Hold some good old US Savings Bonds or Treasuries.
I've got an LMP ladder of TIPS and STRIPS to cover living expenses for the next 16 years.

And a modest allocation to crypto.

I guess that's not a common combo.
Which cryptos?
Mike Scott
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Mike Scott »

All of us with S&P 500 or total stock market funds already own a piece of the crypto mania. If crytpo crashes, we will all suffer direct as well as an unknown amount of collateral damage. The general status of our world is fragile. Confidence is uneven and volatile. A crypto crash or almost any other distraction could cause bad things to happen. In other words, today is like most days and we don't know what will happen tomorrow.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:55 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:24 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:48 pm

Hold some good old US Savings Bonds or Treasuries.
I've got an LMP ladder of TIPS and STRIPS to cover living expenses for the next 16 years.

And a modest allocation to crypto.

I guess that's not a common combo.
Which cryptos?
Weighted by market cap.

Requirements:

1. 7 day fees >$100k.
2. Available on Coinbase.

BTC
ETH
Uniswap (UNI)
Aave (AAVE)
Maker (MKR)
Compound (COMP)
SushiSwap (SUSHI)
Bancor (BNT)
Balancer (BAL)
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euphonious
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by euphonious »

Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:53 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:28 pm
Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:32 pm My wife’s friend apparently is a crypto success story and my wife has been after me to buy Doge coin for a few weeks now
So we just opened Robinhood account to do so with Money we were willing to lose !
Are you concerned that you're a bit late to the Doge party?
May be
But I have peace at home now
One Dogecoin: $0.65.
One Robinhood account: your order flow.
Peace with the wife: priceless.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:53 pm
But I have peace at home now
Priceless
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

euphonious wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:04 pm
One Dogecoin: $0.65.
One Robinhood account: your order flow.
Peace with the wife: priceless.
But who buys just one Dog money?
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Mike Scott
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Mike Scott »

But who buys just one Dog money?
I've got more real dogs than that.
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telemark
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by telemark »

Robert T wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:48 pm In my view the investment process is to maximize the likelihood of achieving a target outcome (eg retirement income etc). i.e. to reduce the likely dispersion of outcomes around a particular target.
Well put. Many investors seem to view it as a contest for bragging rights.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

telemark wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 8:09 pm
Robert T wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 5:48 pm In my view the investment process is to maximize the likelihood of achieving a target outcome (eg retirement income etc). i.e. to reduce the likely dispersion of outcomes around a particular target.
Well put. Many investors seem to view it as a contest for bragging rights.
In our case, we've already achieved our target outcome in terms of securing our retirement income and locked that into our LMP ladder.

The crypto allocation is part of our Risk Portfolio.
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cogito
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by cogito »

Eventually bogleheads will be the proverbial broken clock, and declare victory after a blow off top at BTC 135k and a 45% drop, or something. None of this is coherent with bogleheads philosophy of efficient markets and "nobody knows nuthin", but that hasn't seemed to bother anybody anymore. Whatever. I made 100k on a 20k split on Bitcoin and Ethereum in six months. Not life changing, but I'm gonna buy myself a Porsche and not even feel badly about it. Many thanks to posters like Prahasauras and txhill for their intelligent and educated postings. It was rather easy to see coming if you had an open mind and a curious attitude to new technology. Is this the time to go all in? Probably not. Quite possible we see a local top in two hours on SNL when an Elon joke falls flat. Unfortunately, this board has been consistently wrong on crypto, for years, and it really comes across as jealous and out-of-touch. I don't drop into threads on Gold and TIPS to dunk on investors with FUD, misinformation, and willful ignorance, but crypto just gets under the skin of some posters here in a way I don't understand. 35000 dollar watch threads for me, but no decentralized financial assets for thee, I guess.

Ah well, at the end of the day we all have to invest according to our own convictions. The disappointing part is that the intelligence of the posters here could make the crypto discussions here some of the best on the internet, instead of the worst. Although I suppose it's still better than crypto twitter...
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Green Street »

cogito wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:08 pm Eventually bogleheads will be the proverbial broken clock, and declare victory after a blow off top at BTC 135k and a 45% drop, or something. None of this is coherent with bogleheads philosophy of efficient markets and "nobody knows nuthin", but that hasn't seemed to bother anybody anymore. Whatever. I made 100k on a 20k split on Bitcoin and Ethereum in six months. Not life changing, but I'm gonna buy myself a Porsche and not even feel badly about it. Many thanks to posters like Prahasauras and txhill for their intelligent and educated postings. It was rather easy to see coming if you had an open mind and a curious attitude to new technology. Is this the time to go all in? Probably not. Quite possible we see a local top in two hours on SNL when an Elon joke falls flat. Unfortunately, this board has been consistently wrong on crypto, for years, and it really comes across as jealous and out-of-touch. I don't drop into threads on Gold and TIPS to dunk on investors with FUD, misinformation, and willful ignorance, but crypto just gets under the skin of some posters here in a way I don't understand. 35000 dollar watch threads for me, but no decentralized financial assets for thee, I guess.

Ah well, at the end of the day we all have to invest according to our own convictions. The disappointing part is that the intelligence of the posters here could make the crypto discussions here some of the best on the internet, instead of the worst. Although I suppose it's still better than crypto twitter...
I was part of the bogleheads that was anti-crypto and that’s why it took me so long to get into the game. One day someone made a joke and said let’s make a Coinbase account and for some reason, and out of character... I made it and bought 100btc for a couple of $10 bonuses. Said to myself let me see what the hype is about, started reading into blockchain and went down the rabbit hole for months. Eventually went heavy into ETH and made a lot of money... and I still firmly believe in the technology. Having a lot of fun in the space with DeFi, nfts, etc. You’re absolutely right, some of the brightest minds here would make bountiful crypto discussions but if it’s not about VTSAX, VBTLX, or etc.. then it’s worthy.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by BolderBoy »

Mike Scott wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:58 pmAll of us with S&P 500 or total stock market funds already own a piece of the crypto mania.
Do we? And is it a significant amount?
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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

The day I first heard about Bitcoin was the day I started to worry that someday it or one of its successors and the herd behavior associated with it would lead to a widespread crash eventually. Other posters have noted some of the ways an economic crash could be enabled. Hope my concerns are misplaced.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by chinchin »

BolderBoy wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:56 pm
Mike Scott wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:58 pmAll of us with S&P 500 or total stock market funds already own a piece of the crypto mania.
Do we? And is it a significant amount?
SQ, MSTR, and Tesla have over $8B in Bitcoin.

https://bitcointreasuries.org/
not financial advice
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Mike Scott »

qwerty123
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by qwerty123 »

watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:59 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:55 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:24 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:48 pm

Hold some good old US Savings Bonds or Treasuries.
I've got an LMP ladder of TIPS and STRIPS to cover living expenses for the next 16 years.

And a modest allocation to crypto.

I guess that's not a common combo.
Which cryptos?
Weighted by market cap.

Requirements:

1. 7 day fees >$100k.
2. Available on Coinbase.

BTC
ETH
Uniswap (UNI)
Aave (AAVE)
Maker (MKR)
Compound (COMP)
SushiSwap (SUSHI)
Bancor (BNT)
Balancer (BAL)
Huh. That's a fairly interesting approach to constructing an index for crypto (specifically 1) - one issue I have with crypto indexes weighted by marketcap is that there are a lot of garbage coins that really don't do anything. This seems to filter for coins that there is actually demand for using - glancing through the list, I can honestly get behind most of them (not saying they are a good buy at their current price, but they certainly all have unique uses and decent demand for usage).
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

qwerty123 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 10:23 pm

That's actually a fairly interesting approach to constructing an index for crypto (specifically 1) - one issue I have with crypto indexes weighted by marketcap is that there are a lot of garbage coins that really don't do anything. This seems to filter for coins that there is actually demand for using - glancing through the list, I can honestly get behind most of them (not saying they are a good buy at their current price, but they certainly all have unique uses and decent demand for usage).
It seemed sensible to me as a simple way to weed out a lot the meme coins and scam coins.

The data comes from here:

https://cryptofees.info/
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by jello_nailer »

watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 7:28 pm
Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:32 pm My wife’s friend apparently is a crypto success story and my wife has been after me to buy Doge coin for a few weeks now
So we just opened Robinhood account to do so with Money we were willing to lose !
Are you concerned that you're a bit late to the Doge party?
Nothing ever got to 300,000% gain without going through 28,000% first...
Said someone, somewhere, I am sure.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by bogledogle »

anon_investor wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:53 pm
livesoft wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:41 pm There are currently 9 threads that have crypto in the thread title on my landing page for bogleheads.org.

It's CRYPTO FOMO!

I do not own any, but my spouse is asking about it.
Sounds like a few months ago with all those ARK ETF threads... then a 30% drop...

The season of the Ark has sailed away. Spring brings new crypto bloom.

At least the Crypto thread are entertaining. Maybe I will even learn some useful information one if these days. Crypto could become a legit asset we need to deal with in the future or it is a great pyramid scheme that will crumble down gloriously - either way, more interesting than threads about multi millionaires driving 12 yr old cars or oil change threads due to low mileage during covid :D
vwgrrc
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by vwgrrc »

As much as I appreciate the knowledges I've learned from many people here in my early investment career, the stubbornness and conservatism here can be a little high sometimes. There're sufficient evidences at this point showing crypto is here to stay. Don't get me wrong - there are over 9000 coins in the space now and I do think at least at least 95% of them will go bust, kinda like dotcom bubble. But there're still plently of blue chip project will evetually survive and shine. Yes this asset class is very volatile and has at least one major crash approximately every 4 years but that's just the nature of it.

To OP's question, I think the answer is no. The total crypto market cap today is about 2.4T and this current market cycle could take it to around 6-8T give or take, which means it should be worth around 5-6% of the world equity market when it peaks (a blow-off top like Dec 2017). Yes people who heavily invested in crypto will get burned, so does some family offices, hedge funds, trusts, etc. But overall the percentage is not high enough to trigger a systematic downturn.

As a side note, Gary Gensler is the new SEC Chair. A real blockchain expert who's pro-crypto and also pro-regulation. I think his tenure at SEC will further contribute to the crypto market's diminishing return (lower volatility overall) that can already be observed from the previous 3 cycles.
Last edited by vwgrrc on Sat May 08, 2021 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:34 pm Thanks to her , 1 % of our portfolio is in crypto’s now
It amazes me that people will put 1% of their net worth into DOGE. Truly astounding. There are so many solid, long term crypto options that make sense.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

bogledogle wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:02 pm more interesting than threads about multi millionaires driving 12 yr old cars or oil change threads due to low mileage during covid :D
+1

Do people really just want keep debating:

1. Emergency Funds
2. International vs US only
3. Mortgage as a negative bond

At least my 2% in crypto is providing me entertainment and learning.

I have to admit, the Coinbase Pro trading website is pretty cool, too.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
vwgrrc
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by vwgrrc »

watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:38 pm
bogledogle wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:02 pm more interesting than threads about multi millionaires driving 12 yr old cars or oil change threads due to low mileage during covid :D
+1

Do people really just want keep debating:

1. Emergency Funds
2. International vs US only
3. Mortgage as a negative bond

At least my 2% in crypto is providing me entertainment and learning.

I have to admit, the Coinbase Pro trading website is pretty cool, too.
4. Index > Active
d18lover
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by d18lover »

Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
vwgrrc
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by vwgrrc »

d18lover wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:45 pm Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
Is this Ether mining or BTC?
rage_phish
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by rage_phish »

gwe67 wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:38 pm Pay attention and you will see that there are several similar crypto posts. You crypto fans can comment there and not create a new crypto post every day. Or maybe go to another forum where this is relevant.
Lol
d18lover
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by d18lover »

vwgrrc wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:57 pm
d18lover wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:45 pm Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
Is this Ether mining or BTC?
Ether. Can’t mine BTC anymore without specialized equipment.
Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

d18lover wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 12:37 am
vwgrrc wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:57 pm
d18lover wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:45 pm Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
Is this Ether mining or BTC?
Ether. Can’t mine BTC anymore without specialized equipment.
Ethereum mining will come to an end soon, hopefully by year end.
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Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

d18lover wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 12:37 am
vwgrrc wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:57 pm
d18lover wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:45 pm Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
Is this Ether mining or BTC?
Ether. Can’t mine BTC anymore without specialized equipment.
Duplicate.. I always have issues posting from my iPad. So strange.
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dru808
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by dru808 »

Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:39 pm
cogito wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:08 pm Eventually bogleheads will be the proverbial broken clock, and declare victory after a blow off top at BTC 135k and a 45% drop, or something. None of this is coherent with bogleheads philosophy of efficient markets and "nobody knows nuthin", but that hasn't seemed to bother anybody anymore. Whatever. I made 100k on a 20k split on Bitcoin and Ethereum in six months. Not life changing, but I'm gonna buy myself a Porsche and not even feel badly about it. Many thanks to posters like Prahasauras and txhill for their intelligent and educated postings. It was rather easy to see coming if you had an open mind and a curious attitude to new technology. Is this the time to go all in? Probably not. Quite possible we see a local top in two hours on SNL when an Elon joke falls flat. Unfortunately, this board has been consistently wrong on crypto, for years, and it really comes across as jealous and out-of-touch. I don't drop into threads on Gold and TIPS to dunk on investors with FUD, misinformation, and willful ignorance, but crypto just gets under the skin of some posters here in a way I don't understand. 35000 dollar watch threads for me, but no decentralized financial assets for thee, I guess.

Ah well, at the end of the day we all have to invest according to our own convictions. The disappointing part is that the intelligence of the posters here could make the crypto discussions here some of the best on the internet, instead of the worst. Although I suppose it's still better than crypto twitter...
I was part of the bogleheads that was anti-crypto and that’s why it took me so long to get into the game. One day someone made a joke and said let’s make a Coinbase account and for some reason, and out of character... I made it and bought 100btc for a couple of $10 bonuses. Said to myself let me see what the hype is about, started reading into blockchain and went down the rabbit hole for months. Eventually went heavy into ETH and made a lot of money... and I still firmly believe in the technology. Having a lot of fun in the space with DeFi, nfts, etc. You’re absolutely right, some of the brightest minds here would make bountiful crypto discussions but if it’s not about VTSAX, VBTLX, or etc.. then it’s worthy.
Green Street, when did you buy 100 btc?
1 fund
vwgrrc
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by vwgrrc »

Prahasaurus wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 1:08 am
d18lover wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 12:37 am
vwgrrc wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:57 pm
d18lover wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:45 pm Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
Is this Ether mining or BTC?
Ether. Can’t mine BTC anymore without specialized equipment.
Ethereum mining will come to an end soon, hopefully by year end.
I thought it will be terminated once EIP-1559 rolls out which is July. Is the POS won't effect officially until EOY or what? I'm actually not sure.
Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

vwgrrc wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 1:20 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 1:08 am
d18lover wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 12:37 am
vwgrrc wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:57 pm
d18lover wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:45 pm Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
Is this Ether mining or BTC?
Ether. Can’t mine BTC anymore without specialized equipment.
Ethereum mining will come to an end soon, hopefully by year end.
I thought it will be terminated once EIP-1559 rolls out which is July. Is the POS won't effect officially until EOY or what? I'm actually not sure.
See here: https://notes.ethereum.org/@vbuterin/eip-1559-faq

You can still earn transaction fees after 1559. Once we switch to Proof of Stake, however, mining fees will stop completely. That could be by year end, we'll see.
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Jimsad
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Jimsad »

Prahasaurus wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:32 pm
Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:34 pm Thanks to her , 1 % of our portfolio is in crypto’s now
It amazes me that people will put 1% of their net worth into DOGE. Truly astounding. There are so many solid, long term crypto options that make sense.
It is actually a combination of Bitcoin, etherium and dogecoin
In GBTC, Coinbase and Robinhood
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LadyGeek
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic interchange regarding crypto threads started by other members. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

...At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters.
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txhill
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:38 pm
bogledogle wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:02 pm more interesting than threads about multi millionaires driving 12 yr old cars or oil change threads due to low mileage during covid :D
+1

Do people really just want keep debating:

1. Emergency Funds
2. International vs US only
3. Mortgage as a negative bond

At least my 2% in crypto is providing me entertainment and learning.

I have to admit, the Coinbase Pro trading website is pretty cool, too.
Definitely agree and happy you came on board! Give Gemini Active Trader a shot too— I checked it out after reading the horrible Coinbase reviews from what appear to be hordes of unhappy customers (although I personally had good experiences with Coinbase Pro). I like the interface a lot and it’s also easy to drop your coins in Gemini Earn and get a small % yield out of it, which you might as well do unless you self custody in cold storage. Gemini is a very trustworthy storage option from everything I have read.

Regardless of platform make sure to set up 2FA.
d18lover
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by d18lover »

Prahasaurus wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 1:08 am
d18lover wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 12:37 am
vwgrrc wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:57 pm
d18lover wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 11:45 pm Easy money for a PC gamer. Wife is happy my gaming PC has paid for itself and is now funding our vacation. Mostly selling as I mine it, staking some. Spent nothing other than a little more on electricity and so far made $2000 cash this year. I fully think ETH will win out over BTC and think it has so much potential.

I feel like I’m on the ground floor of Apple or Amazon in terms of upside. I expect swings, but over time this seems like a solid place to keep a small amount invested.
Is this Ether mining or BTC?
Ether. Can’t mine BTC anymore without specialized equipment.
Ethereum mining will come to an end soon, hopefully by year end.
Yes. The question is, how will this effect the price? There should be a lot less ETH coming onto the market, so it may be a boon to prices. Harder to get. Right now anyone with a GPU can turn it on and start earning. Next, it will be like a savings CD. Have to lock it up on in staking to earn more.
SocalLiving
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by SocalLiving »

Jimsad wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 4:32 pm My wife’s friend apparently is a crypto success story and my wife has been after me to buy Doge coin for a few weeks now
So we just opened Robinhood account to do so with Money we were willing to lose !
This is a real phenomenon. Had to open a Robinhood account because my husband, who takes no interest in any of our investments, insisted we had to buy some dogecoin. I just want peace at home. I made him promise he will be responsible for figuring out when to sell.
ohboy!
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by ohboy! »

HomerJ wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 2:44 pm I'm actually quite worried the longer it goes on.

I totally saw the housing crash coming, but I didn't care because I owned my house. I figured it would just hurt the people who borrowed too much, and banks who were dumb enough to lend to them.

But what happened was investment firms packaged those bad mortgage loans into "investment vehicles" called CDOs, which allowed the rot to spread throughout the entire financial system, and nearly brought it all down.

I fear the same may happen with crypto. At first, it was just going to hurt the people who bought bitcoin last or dogecoin last before the crash.. but now the investment firms are getting in on the action. They will find a way to repackage the crypto loans that already over-leveraged and a house of cards, and sell them to others, touting them as nearly risk-free, just like they did with CDOs (you'll own a tiny piece of a bunch of different mortgages! What are the odds they all default at the same time?) :oops:

Same with crypto. I see a monumental crash someday. Every post here about how one can loan out crypto to other people who use those loans to speculate on more crypto scares the hell out of me.

All the crypto-proponents continually compare those loans to savings accounts at banks, but leverage is where the real danger lies.

If a bunch of people or institutions owned bitcoin, and bitcoin crashed 50%, even 80%, those people would just have a lot less money.

The danger is when a crash like that takes them above 100% losses because of leverage. Where people default, and then institutions default, and other institutions (who may have had zero crypto, but were intertwined with institutions that did) are affected as well.

It happened in 2008... The longer this goes on, and the more the Wall Street geniuses get involved, the more danger I see.

I just don't know how to hedge against it...
First step is admitting your fears. Well done
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