Motley Fool Stock Advisor

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pkcrafter
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Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by pkcrafter »

Anyone know about Motley Fool Stock Advisor?

Claim:
Stock Advisor's recommendations have beaten the market over the past 18 years by staying true to our investing philosophy. We believe your best chance to succeed in the stock market is to buy at least 15 stocks and hold them for at least 5 years.

Stock Adviso 582%, S&P 500 129%


https://www.fool.com/order/fe_offers/wf ... -evergreen

https://www.fool.com/premium/stock-advisor/landing/

NOOO, I'm not interested in joining :annoyed

Paul
Last edited by pkcrafter on Sun May 02, 2021 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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Stinky
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisof

Post by Stinky »

For guaranteed returns like these, I’d gladly pay $99 per year.

Oh, wait ….. they’re not guaranteed. :oops:

And the “average” return is probably heavily influenced by Amazon.
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
plog
Posts: 38
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisof

Post by plog »

On one hand I hate that literally lying in advertising is legal and even expected in the United States. But on the other hand its conditioned me to immediately sniff for the bs in everything with a corporation attached.
...beaten the market over the past 18 years...
I'm not wasting my time doing the research but that seems a very cherry picked amount of years.

Also, you're on bogle heads, what kind of answer are you expecting? Its like asking for shrimp recipes on a judaism site.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisof

Post by UpperNwGuy »

The claims are bogus and should be ignored.
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Watty
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisof

Post by Watty »

There are a number of threads that mention them that you can look up.

Some of the biggest problems are;

1) A lot of survivorship bias. A while back out of curiosity I looked at the list of their current subscription offerings and they had something like 30 of them! They are always churning offerings so just by random chance some will do well.

2) Picking selective starting dates. They are measuring performance for the last 18 years. Why 18 years? Because it is a date just after the dot com bust which makes them look good no doubt.

3) They may measure their performance against an impropriate benchmark.
Last edited by Watty on Sun May 02, 2021 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Random Musings
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by Random Musings »

Pity the fool that uses the Fool.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
chris319
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by chris319 »

I have since lost track of the raw data, but one of their ads claimed a certain return over a certain period of time. I'm sure the claim was true.

The ad gave me enough data to perform a CAGR calculation. The CAGR was dismal.

All you had to do a few years ago was to listen to their radio show. Now you can watch their YouTube videos. They have "huckster" written all over them. One of the brothers acts like an oversugared eight year old. You just want to slap him.

The other brother, the bald-headed one, Tom, I guess, has a pretty good interview with Jack Bogle on YouTube. Tom is respectful and well behaved, and of course Jack is a rock star. The video is well worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLgn_kVKjCE&t=223s
GOMEZ: Morticia! Consolidated Fuzz just hit 212 — I sold it for 6 — saved all that tax. MORTICIA: Brilliant!
dukeblue219
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by dukeblue219 »

They have picked a few huge winners early enough to show pretty solid returns overall. AOL in the 90s and Amazon in the 2000s are two of their biggies. On the other hand, who the heck knows if it'll continue.

There are worse places to get investing advice than Stock Advisor, but TMF themselves used to promote indexed investing heavily. I guess that didn't bring in a whole lot of subscriptions.

Note that SA content is a light years better than the junky click-bait articles that make up the "free" Motley Fool website these days.
danrock54
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by danrock54 »

Their podcasts are not bad for breaking down company earnings reports. They do come off as a bit too 'gung ho' about stocks in general
sureshoe
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by sureshoe »

I was a big Fool follower in the early days. A lot of what they said rung true with me.

"Research stocks and pick individuals. Small investors can beat mutual funds because they don't have the restrictions. We can research and find picks, etc." My gut tells me in the beginning they were more on the up and up. They also professed the power of low fees, index funds, buy and hold, things I had heard elsewhere.

I bought their book back in 2000 which professed the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy (which apparently isn't backtested), and used that to buy my first 4 stocks ever: Kodak, Caterpillar, International Paper... and I can't remember the 4th. A small position compared to my overall 401k at the time. I bought stock advisor, and it does OK, I tracked it pretty religiously and while I didn't buy every pick, I did "about market average". I had some big winners, like Marvel and some big losers like Shufflemaster. I eventually let it expire because it was just too much trouble for what didn't feel like convincing returns.

They might have been semi-legit back in the day. But now, they are very much like those "Get Your Hot Sport Bet Picks" shows.

They promise completely unrealistic returns. They have multiple services and keep offering new services, rolling old services together and retiring those with bad returns. The fact is, I could start "The Ultimate Stock Service" and I could promise 20% returns, and probably get close to it if I launch 5 unique services. 1 of those services probably hit. I then retire the 2 failures saying "we're going to focus on our core offering". I roll the 2 middle performers together, which get market average into a new "Premium Launch" and keep my flagship which happened to hit 1 homerun. That's basically their model.
chris319
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by chris319 »

Do they have any sort of method or system or rule set, or do they just pick the shiny object that looks shiniest? If the latter, I would say whatever success they have had is likely the result of luck, not skill. Also, some stocks might go up just because TMF recommended them.

They quote gross returns over a specific period, but once you annualize those returns, things don't look so rosy.
GOMEZ: Morticia! Consolidated Fuzz just hit 212 — I sold it for 6 — saved all that tax. MORTICIA: Brilliant!
hnd
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by hnd »

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... l_premium/

I went in on stock advisor with 3 other guys at work for a time. we bought the stocks on some minimal level (at least I did) and we made money. I did not buy all of the stocks recommended. i researched the crap out of the ones they recommended though. my play money account grew much faster than my retirement accounts did. we didn't renew as we all have had other things that take up the time in our lives and i don't really buy stocks now unless I'm compelled to in some way shape or form. I still own most of the stocks purchased as i hate selling. when i use my play money account to purchase something, i will usually sell a share or two from a selection of stocks for some various reason.

In the end, i did not feel i understood enough to blindly purchase their recommendations. and in truth, my analysis on my own is probably nothing anyone would pay for.
Polystallion
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by Polystallion »

I have subscribed to stock advisor for over 15 years and have bought their stock picks every month. My SA CAGR since 2005 is over 19%. Haven't seen anything else that could do better than that. It does take a lot of discipline to buy every pick though. There are also a lot of losers mixed in. Best picks for me that help prop up the CAGR is TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TTD and their multiple picks of NFLX.
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Toons
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by Toons »

No need to beat the market
but thanks anyway
Motley Founded in 1993
I remember their heyday :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
chris319
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by chris319 »

Polystallion wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 3:02 pm I have subscribed to stock advisor for over 15 years and have bought their stock picks every month. My SA CAGR since 2005 is over 19%. Haven't seen anything else that could do better than that. It does take a lot of discipline to buy every pick though. There are also a lot of losers mixed in. Best picks for me that help prop up the CAGR is TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TTD and their multiple picks of NFLX.
What about CG taxes? Not everyone is in an IRA.
GOMEZ: Morticia! Consolidated Fuzz just hit 212 — I sold it for 6 — saved all that tax. MORTICIA: Brilliant!
teamDE
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Re: Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Post by teamDE »

FWIW, I noticed that my Amex card has a $99 credit when you spend $99 on Motley Fool deal. So basically a year subscription for free. I've been thinking about doing it.
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