Initially this thread was about an update on I Bond's rate in May and was titled "I Bonds variable rate @ 3.54% in May". Since then, it has taken on a life of its own. Particularly as inflation has increased in recent months. Lots of information now is included about how to get I Bonds, how to configure Treasury Direct accounts, how I Bonds can fit into short and long term planning goals, etc. Given this, the thread has since been renamed to reflect this broader discussion.
Fixed rate is still 0%, but the variable rate has more than doubled from what it was before (1.68%). Worth keeping in mind if planning to buy I Bonds. May be worth waiting until May
Buying now just means you wait until October for the new rate. IMO, it's better to buy now to get the clock started on a good (current) rate and the 1 year holding period.
NYC_Guy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:45 pm
In theory, yes. In practice, a deferred purchase of the maximum annual amount will amount to less than $100 of extra interest.
Agree completely. The threads about optimizing iBond purchases are pretty amusing. The common advice to make sure to buy at the end of the month amounts to something like a $5-$10 swing most of the time. Bogleheads would do better paying more attention to grocery store coupons and sales.
This update is bigger news for those holding an existing portfolio rather than those considering when to purchase 2021 allotment.
By the way, I don’t think optimizing these things is silly but I do scratch my head at the airtime these iBond topics get on here and elsewhere given the minimal incremental value.
Those 3.6% base plus the inflation variable rate I Bonds which we purchased in 2000 (and later) still look good. They have passed tripling their purchase prices and now are heading toward quadrupling. (Thank you again, Mel).
Jim
Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered you will never grow. (Ralph Waldo Emerson)
tomsense76 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:39 pm
Fixed rate is still 0%, but the variable rate has more than doubled from what it was before (1.68%). Worth keeping in mind if planning to buy I Bonds. May be worth waiting until May
Sheepdog wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:27 am
Those 3.6% base plus the inflation variable rate I Bonds which we purchased in 2000 (and later) still look good. They have passed tripling their purchase prices and now are heading toward quadrupling. (Thank you again, Mel).
Jim
Sheepdog wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:27 am
Those 3.6% base plus the inflation variable rate I Bonds which we purchased in 2000 (and later) still look good. They have passed tripling their purchase prices and now are heading toward quadrupling. (Thank you again, Mel).
Jim
Ditto to that!
You're both welcome. I'll also be enjoying six months of 7.14% on those 3.6% fixed rate I Bonds.
bhtomj wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:36 am
Buying now just means you wait until October for the new rate. IMO, it's better to buy now to get the clock started on a good (current) rate and the 1 year holding period.
I bought both DW’s and my maximum allocation in January for one reason...my asset allocation said to buy bonds.
If we have a Revocable Trust which lists my wife and I as the Trustees, can we each purchase up to $15,000 of bonds, or is the Trust limited to a total of $15,000? Thanks for any responses.
Nowizard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:01 pm
If we have a Revocable Trust with spouse and I as Trustees, can we each purchase IBonds to the maximum amount? A 2017 thread stated that could be done, even saying each could purchase individually and for the Trust while advising against transferring those purchased outside the Trust to the Trust. Does this still hold? I noticed the amount mentioned in that thread was $20,000 rather than $15,000, also.
Tim
$10k per person + $10k for the trust + $5k paper bonds with an overpayment / tax refund = $35k total
Sheepdog wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:27 am
Those 3.6% base plus the inflation variable rate I Bonds which we purchased in 2000 (and later) still look good. They have passed tripling their purchase prices and now are heading toward quadrupling. (Thank you again, Mel).
Jim
Ditto to that!
You're both welcome. I'll also be enjoying six months of 7.14% on those 3.6% fixed rate I Bonds.
I was 13 then, so missed out on that. Do you guys ever see the fixed rate going up at any point? Do you suggest making yearly I bond purchases, or invest elsewhere when the fixed is at 0%?
Sheepdog wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:27 am
Those 3.6% base plus the inflation variable rate I Bonds which we purchased in 2000 (and later) still look good. They have passed tripling their purchase prices and now are heading toward quadrupling. (Thank you again, Mel).
Jim
Ditto to that!
You're both welcome. I'll also be enjoying six months of 7.14% on those 3.6% fixed rate I Bonds.
I was 13 then, so missed out on that. Do you guys ever see the fixed rate going up at any point? Do you suggest making yearly I bond purchases, or invest elsewhere when the fixed is at 0%?
The rate is set by the Treasury department, not by the market. However, some have noted a relationship between TIPS yields and the Series I fixed rate. The TIPS yields are all negative and have been since April of last year. I was originally thinking of holding off until November to do Series I this year (thinking the fixed rate can't get any worse than zero), but with this variable rate I might go ahead at the end of next month.
Beets,
Actually I believe the maximum is $10k person, $10k per trust and $5k for tax refund so husband and wife with separate trusts could mas out at $45k per year. Please let me know if my math is incorrect.
I am less studied on the fixed income side. Who should be buying I Bonds? Retirees? Near retirees? Young accumulators that need additional fixed income exposure and should bypass/diversify from 401k Total Bond fund?
2Dog wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:36 pm
Actually I believe the maximum is $10k person, $10k per trust and $5k for tax refund so husband and wife with separate trusts could mas out at $45k per year. Please let me know if my math is incorrect.
I'm actually not aware of a rule limiting each person to only one trust. I think that if one was sufficiently motivated and didn't mind a ton of paperwork, one could create a bunch of trusts and put $10k in each. There might be some rule that I haven't seen, though, and perhaps they'd create one if enough people did this.
tj wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:59 am
Why has the Treasury set the variable rate so high? This is so much higher than anything FDIC/NCUA insured out there.
It is not arbitrarily set by the Treasury, but is the result of a calculation of changes in the CPI-U. This was setup when the I Bonds were introduced.
This quote is from the Treasury website:
A variable semiannual inflation rate based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The Bureau of the Fiscal Service announces the rates each May and November. The semiannual inflation rate announced in May is the change between the CPI-U figures from the preceding September and March; the inflation rate announced in November is the change between the CPI-U figures from the preceding March and September.
Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered you will never grow. (Ralph Waldo Emerson)
I know this is completely and utterly market timing and has no place on this site.....
but...
will this not have detrimental impact on the total stock market funds when everyone sells April 30th, May 1st to buy I bonds? The crash in march represented about 2% of shareholders selling total stock funds. Are 2% of folks not going to chase this rate which is multiple times higher than any other fixed income option thus having a Really bad day/buying opportunity for bogleheads? Or does the $10k per person limit reduce it enough it doesn't have much impact on the bigger picture?
Remember that an I Bond purchase is illiquid for the first year (you can't sell it) and there is a 3 month interest penalty for redemptions in the first 5 years. I don't see why people would be inclined to sell stocks to get this I Bond interest rate that's only guaranteed for 6 months.
tj wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:59 am
Why has the Treasury set the variable rate so high? This is so much higher than anything FDIC/NCUA insured out there.
Suggests that inflation is rising fast.
Best regards, -Op |
|
"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
scot wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:25 am
I know this is completely and utterly market timing and has no place on this site.....
but...
will this not have detrimental impact on the total stock market funds when everyone sells April 30th, May 1st to buy I bonds? The crash in march represented about 2% of shareholders selling total stock funds. Are 2% of folks not going to chase this rate which is multiple times higher than any other fixed income option thus having a Really bad day/buying opportunity for bogleheads? Or does the $10k per person limit reduce it enough it doesn't have much impact on the bigger picture?
If every single US resident bought 10K I-bonds that is still 320mill * 10K ~= 3.2B dollars. US market cap is 45Trillion!
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
scot wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:25 am
I know this is completely and utterly market timing and has no place on this site.....
but...
will this not have detrimental impact on the total stock market funds when everyone sells April 30th, May 1st to buy I bonds? The crash in march represented about 2% of shareholders selling total stock funds. Are 2% of folks not going to chase this rate which is multiple times higher than any other fixed income option thus having a Really bad day/buying opportunity for bogleheads? Or does the $10k per person limit reduce it enough it doesn't have much impact on the bigger picture?
If every single US resident bought 10K I-bonds that is still 320mill * 10K ~= 3.2B dollars. US market cap is 45Trillion!
scot wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:25 am
I know this is completely and utterly market timing and has no place on this site.....
but...
will this not have detrimental impact on the total stock market funds when everyone sells April 30th, May 1st to buy I bonds? The crash in march represented about 2% of shareholders selling total stock funds. Are 2% of folks not going to chase this rate which is multiple times higher than any other fixed income option thus having a Really bad day/buying opportunity for bogleheads? Or does the $10k per person limit reduce it enough it doesn't have much impact on the bigger picture?
If every single US resident bought 10K I-bonds that is still 320mill * 10K ~= 3.2B dollars. US market cap is 45Trillion!
3.2T is it not?
Correct.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Somebody explain it to me like I'm 5. What does this mean? If I buy $10,000 in I Bonds on May 1, I'll earn 3.54% + the fixed rate of 0%, presumably, for a total annual return of 3.54%? And how often is that variable rate adjusted?
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:24 pm
Somebody explain it to me like I'm 5. What does this mean? If I buy $10,000 in I Bonds on May 1, I'll earn 3.54% + the fixed rate of 0%, presumably, for a total annual return of 3.54%? And how often is that variable rate adjusted?
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:24 pm
Somebody explain it to me like I'm 5. What does this mean? If I buy $10,000 in I Bonds on May 1, I'll earn 3.54% + the fixed rate of 0%, presumably, for a total annual return of 3.54%? And how often is that variable rate adjusted?
Every 6 months
So buying right now, with a fixed rate of 0%, assures me I'll earn the variable rate until maturity, or they'll double, whichever is higher.
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:24 pm
Somebody explain it to me like I'm 5. What does this mean? If I buy $10,000 in I Bonds on May 1, I'll earn 3.54% + the fixed rate of 0%, presumably, for a total annual return of 3.54%? And how often is that variable rate adjusted?
Every 6 months
So buying right now, with a fixed rate of 0%, assures me I'll earn the variable rate until maturity, or they'll double, whichever is higher.
There is no automatic doubling with I Bonds -- you will earn a new variable rate (based on inflation) every 6 months until you redeem or the bond matures.
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:24 pm
Somebody explain it to me like I'm 5. What does this mean? If I buy $10,000 in I Bonds on May 1, I'll earn 3.54% + the fixed rate of 0%, presumably, for a total annual return of 3.54%? And how often is that variable rate adjusted?
Every 6 months
So buying right now, with a fixed rate of 0%, assures me I'll earn the variable rate until maturity, or they'll double, whichever is higher.
There is no automatic doubling with I Bonds -- you will earn a new variable rate (based on inflation) every 6 months until you redeem or the bond matures.
I have never bought I bonds as they weren't very exciting to me before as I couldn't really use them as a rebalancing tool and I don't carry much of an emergency fund...However, with this rate for the next six months, it seems like in lieu of say paying down a 2.49% mortgage I should buy $10,000 for me and $10,000 for my wife in May. I understand I will need to hold for a year and then I can evaluate the best course of action for that $20,000 then right. As long as the indexed rate for the 2nd six months is at least 1.44% or better I'll come out ahead right?
"Contentment", the only thing you ever truly need more of!
scot wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:25 am
I know this is completely and utterly market timing and has no place on this site.....
but...
will this not have detrimental impact on the total stock market funds when everyone sells April 30th, May 1st to buy I bonds? The crash in march represented about 2% of shareholders selling total stock funds. Are 2% of folks not going to chase this rate which is multiple times higher than any other fixed income option thus having a Really bad day/buying opportunity for bogleheads? Or does the $10k per person limit reduce it enough it doesn't have much impact on the bigger picture?
If every single US resident bought 10K I-bonds that is still 320mill * 10K ~= 3.2B dollars. US market cap is 45Trillion!
3.2T is it not?
Correct.
sorry, 3.2T is correct. I guess we bogleheads can band together like reddit WSB
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:24 pm
Somebody explain it to me like I'm 5. What does this mean? If I buy $10,000 in I Bonds on May 1, I'll earn 3.54% + the fixed rate of 0%, presumably, for a total annual return of 3.54%? And how often is that variable rate adjusted?
Every 6 months
So buying right now, with a fixed rate of 0%, assures me I'll earn the variable rate until maturity, or they'll double, whichever is higher.
There is no automatic doubling with I Bonds -- you will earn a new variable rate (based on inflation) every 6 months until you redeem or the bond matures.
LukeHeinz57 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:04 pmI understand I will need to hold for a year and then I can evaluate the best course of action for that $20,000 then right. As long as the indexed rate for the 2nd six months is at least 1.44% or better I'll come out ahead right?
You have to pay federal tax on earnings, and you will not receive the last 3 months of earnings if you sell before 5 years, so a six month rate of 1.44% would not offset the mortgage rate.
45% US Indexes, 25% Ex-US Indexes, 30% Fixed Income - Buy & Hold
Makaveli wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:47 am
I am less studied on the fixed income side. Who should be buying I Bonds? Retirees? Near retirees? Young accumulators that need additional fixed income exposure and should bypass/diversify from 401k Total Bond fund?
When I have cash and have maxed out my IRA contributions, I purchased I Bonds, as opposed to putting it in a bank making .5%. It's not as readily available when you need it. Needs to be in for a year.
Makaveli wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:47 am
I am less studied on the fixed income side. Who should be buying I Bonds? Retirees? Near retirees? Young accumulators that need additional fixed income exposure and should bypass/diversify from 401k Total Bond fund?
When I have cash and have maxed out my IRA contributions, I purchased I Bonds, as opposed to putting it in a bank making .5%. It's not as readily available when you need it. Needs to be in for a year.
And which category do you fall into?
More so interested if this makes sense for someone in their 30’s.
Makaveli wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:47 am
I am less studied on the fixed income side. Who should be buying I Bonds? Retirees? Near retirees? Young accumulators that need additional fixed income exposure and should bypass/diversify from 401k Total Bond fund?
Well once your past the one year mark you can eat 3 months interest and use as an emergency fund
Last edited by Wk1014 on Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
scot wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:25 am
I know this is completely and utterly market timing and has no place on this site.....
but...
will this not have detrimental impact on the total stock market funds when everyone sells April 30th, May 1st to buy I bonds? The crash in march represented about 2% of shareholders selling total stock funds. Are 2% of folks not going to chase this rate which is multiple times higher than any other fixed income option thus having a Really bad day/buying opportunity for bogleheads? Or does the $10k per person limit reduce it enough it doesn't have much impact on the bigger picture?
If every single US resident bought 10K I-bonds that is still 320mill * 10K ~= 3.2B dollars. US market cap is 45Trillion!
You missed a few 0’s $320,000,000* $10,000 = $3,0200,000,000,000 or $3.2 trillion not to mention the $5k in paper with tax return and $10k per trust
LukeHeinz57 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:04 pmI understand I will need to hold for a year and then I can evaluate the best course of action for that $20,000 then right. As long as the indexed rate for the 2nd six months is at least 1.44% or better I'll come out ahead right?
You have to pay federal tax on earnings, and you will not receive the last 3 months of earnings if you sell before 5 years, so a six month rate of 1.44% would not offset the mortgage rate.
Thank you for setting me straight!
"Contentment", the only thing you ever truly need more of!
scot wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:25 am
I know this is completely and utterly market timing and has no place on this site.....
but...
will this not have detrimental impact on the total stock market funds when everyone sells April 30th, May 1st to buy I bonds? The crash in march represented about 2% of shareholders selling total stock funds. Are 2% of folks not going to chase this rate which is multiple times higher than any other fixed income option thus having a Really bad day/buying opportunity for bogleheads? Or does the $10k per person limit reduce it enough it doesn't have much impact on the bigger picture?
If every single US resident bought 10K I-bonds that is still 320mill * 10K ~= 3.2B dollars. US market cap is 45Trillion!
Your math is off by a factor of 1,000. 320mil*10k = 3.2 TRILLION.
Best regards, -Op |
|
"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
I placed an order to purchase at the end of the month in treasury direct. No way to change that not to execute this month now is it? I can see the order in my history page but no way to cancel or edit it.
noriskfinance wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:47 am
I placed an order to purchase at the end of the month in treasury direct. No way to change that not to execute this month now is it? I can see the order in my history page but no way to cancel or edit it.
I just changed mine the other day when I saw the increase. Log into TD, at the top menu go to "Manage Direct," and in the first column, under "manage securities" go to the link "view/delete pending purchase" and that will allow you to delete the pending purchase. Then, go back to Buy Direct and reenter the amount and the date that you want to make the purchase.
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." Yogi Berra's financial wisdom.
noriskfinance wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:47 am
I placed an order to purchase at the end of the month in treasury direct. No way to change that not to execute this month now is it? I can see the order in my history page but no way to cancel or edit it.
I just changed mine the other day when I saw the increase. Log into TD, at the top menu go to "Manage Direct," and in the first column, under "manage securities" go to the link "view/delete pending purchase" and that will allow you to delete the pending purchase. Then, go back to Buy Direct and reenter the amount and the date that you want to make the purchase.
noriskfinance wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:47 am
I placed an order to purchase at the end of the month in treasury direct. No way to change that not to execute this month now is it? I can see the order in my history page but no way to cancel or edit it.
I just changed mine the other day when I saw the increase. Log into TD, at the top menu go to "Manage Direct," and in the first column, under "manage securities" go to the link "view/delete pending purchase" and that will allow you to delete the pending purchase. Then, go back to Buy Direct and reenter the amount and the date that you want to make the purchase.
Glad to help! The site takes some getting used to.
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." Yogi Berra's financial wisdom.
