Useless Investment Books

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chris319
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Useless Investment Books

Post by chris319 »

Have you ever bought an investment book that turned out to be useless? I sure have.

The first investment book I ever bought was in the late 1980's, written by none other than Charles Schwab. At least his name is on it; I don't know if it was ghost written. I was thinking Charles must know something about investing having started a discount brokerage. I was so naive, what did I know? I came to find out there was no "there" there. Nothing you could sink your teeth into as far as developing an actionable investment plan. I think I returned the book.

Then I bought "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. Lots of vague advice. Short of spending 23 hours a day pouring over financial statements, he suggests looking at a company's parking lot to observe the number of cars parked there. Well, OK, assuming there is such a company within a reasonable distance of your home. Not in that book, Peter gave some of my favorite stock-picking advice "Never buy stocks that go down". Yes, he actually said that. I can imagine a scenario like this: "Hello, Mr. (or Ms.) Broker? I'm thinking about buying XYZ. Is it going to go down?" Mr. (or Ms.) Broker says, "Let me pull up my stock chart of the future which is available only to stockbrokers. Yes, it's going to go down. I'd stay away from it."

I am reminded of a scene from The Addams Family. Gomez is frantically reading his ticker tape and says, "Morticia! Consolidated Fuzz just hit 212. I sold it for 6; saved all that tax". Morticia thinks he's "brilliant". Peter Lynch's book went right back to the book store.

There was something called "Computerized Investing" by AAII. This reinforced my notion that given today's computational horsepower just sitting on your desktop and enough historical data, you could figure out what made stocks go up and develop a trading system. Was I naive!

I still have my copy of "Portfolio Management Formulas" by Ralph Vince. It changed my thinking about leverage.

I wish Jack Bogle had come to my attention in those early years.

What investment books have you found to be useless or nearly so?
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by firebirdparts »

Charles Givens was successfully sued over “Wealth Without Risk”. I read that whole book. It gets dumber as you go along, but actually he’s not totally wrong about investing. Just not a smart man.

He had a very bold tax idea: “Don’t pay them.”
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Sandtrap »

At least 99.9% of the books on investing (from R/E to etc) I’ve perused or read have been useless.
A wise senior family business mentor once told me....
..., “if the people writing books on wealth in investing were actually wealthy they wouldn’t be writing and selling the books, and seminars.”

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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

I read the peter lynch books too and didn't get much out of them either.

had the motley fool's foolish four. that's now defunct.

never read the Beardstown Ladies Investment Guide, but that's pretty useless (recalled).

there's probably too many to count.

i'll throw the kyosaki books in there too (rich dad, poor dad). concepts more than anything in those rather than any actual practical advise.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

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firebirdparts wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:17 pm Charles Givens was successfully sued over “Wealth Without Risk”. I read that whole book. It gets dumber as you go along, but actually he’s not totally wrong about investing. Just not a smart man.

He had a very bold tax idea: “Don’t pay them.”
That was the first personal finance book I read. You're right that much of the advice wasn't good, but there were some nuggets in there too. I think that he may have been one of the first to 'blow the whistle' on whole life insurance being a ripoff for virtually everyone. And some of his tax avoidance advice was good at the time.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by willthrill81 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
Apparently some people need long explanations for relatively simple things. Others need the 'authority' of a book to make important decisions.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by dziuniek »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
Because arguing over 0.02% vs 0.01% ER gets boring fast :twisted:
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by texasdiver »

All of them.

I mean I have some classic ones on my shelf that have been recommended here. But none of them have actually affected how I invest in the slightest. I just keep simplifying down to the simplest 3-fund type portfolio at the lowest fees, max out contributions as much as possible, and call it good. I don't need any books to do that.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Marseille07 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:05 pm I read the peter lynch books too and didn't get much out of them either.

had the motley fool's foolish four. that's now defunct.

never read the Beardstown Ladies Investment Guide, but that's pretty useless (recalled).

there's probably too many to count.

i'll throw the kyosaki books in there too (rich dad, poor dad). concepts more than anything in those rather than any actual practical advise.
Kiyosaki books were good to understand the concept of the Rat Race, and probably for those interested in RE (I used to explore this). His advise was practical for RE, but RE itself requires a lot more legwork than Bogleheads investing.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by renter »

Survive and Win in the Inflationary 80s
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Case59 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
Ditto this.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:17 pm Charles Givens was successfully sued over “Wealth Without Risk”. I read that whole book. It gets dumber as you go along, but actually he’s not totally wrong about investing. Just not a smart man.

He had a very bold tax idea: “Don’t pay them.”
I read this book when I was 19 and it seemed brilliant to me back then. Luckily I had no money to invest for another 15 years anyway!
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by KlangFool »

Grasshopper,

If you had learned that some books are useless, you had learned something. Then, how could you claimed that the books are useless?

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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by KlangFool »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:49 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:05 pm I read the peter lynch books too and didn't get much out of them either.

had the motley fool's foolish four. that's now defunct.

never read the Beardstown Ladies Investment Guide, but that's pretty useless (recalled).

there's probably too many to count.

i'll throw the kyosaki books in there too (rich dad, poor dad). concepts more than anything in those rather than any actual practical advise.
Kiyosaki books were good to understand the concept of the Rat Race, and probably for those interested in RE (I used to explore this). His advise was practical for RE, but RE itself requires a lot more legwork than Bogleheads investing.
Marseille07,

One man's junk is next man's treasure. It was extremely useful for me.

It teaches me three things about Real Estate.

A) I do not want to do Real Estate investing. It is not for me.

B) The house that I live in is not an investment

C) How to buy a house that is cheaper than renting by assuming ZERO appreciation.

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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by abuss368 »

Sandtrap wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:01 pm At least 99.9% of the books on investing (from R/E to etc) I’ve perused or read have been useless.
A wise senior family business mentor once told me....
..., “if the people writing books on wealth in investing were actually wealthy they wouldn’t be writing and selling the books, and seminars.”

j🌺
So well said and could not agree more! Jack Bogle’s books (I have all of the,), were written by Jack himself and not a ghost writer. I have learned so much and recommend them to anyone.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Marseille07 »

KlangFool wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:06 pm Marseille07,

One man's junk is next man's treasure. It was extremely useful for me.

It teaches me three things about Real Estate.

A) I do not want to do Real Estate investing. It is not for me.

B) The house that I live in is not an investment

C) How to buy a house that is cheaper than renting by assuming ZERO appreciation.

KlangFool
Yes. I also didn't end up doing RE, and agree with B and C as well.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by abuss368 »

Most books I have read on investing and personal finance are a complete waste. I really stopped buying years back.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

abuss368 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:09 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:01 pm At least 99.9% of the books on investing (from R/E to etc) I’ve perused or read have been useless.
A wise senior family business mentor once told me....
..., “if the people writing books on wealth in investing were actually wealthy they wouldn’t be writing and selling the books, and seminars.”

j🌺
So well said and could not agree more! Jack Bogle’s books (I have all of the,), were written by Jack himself and not a ghost writer. I have learned so much and recommend them to anyone.

Tony
Jack was wealthy though, and he wrote all those books...
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by abuss368 »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:12 pm
abuss368 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:09 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:01 pm At least 99.9% of the books on investing (from R/E to etc) I’ve perused or read have been useless.
A wise senior family business mentor once told me....
..., “if the people writing books on wealth in investing were actually wealthy they wouldn’t be writing and selling the books, and seminars.”

j🌺
So well said and could not agree more! Jack Bogle’s books (I have all of the,), were written by Jack himself and not a ghost writer. I have learned so much and recommend them to anyone.

Tony
Jack was wealthy though, and he wrote all those books...
Excellent point.

Thank you Jack Bogle!

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

abuss368 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:10 pm Most books I have read on investing and personal finance are a complete waste. I really stopped buying years back.

Tony
And I was waiting for your best seller, The Truck: How I Backed It Up On My Way To Fame And Fortune
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by abuss368 »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:15 pm
abuss368 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:10 pm Most books I have read on investing and personal finance are a complete waste. I really stopped buying years back.

Tony
And I was waiting for your best seller, The Truck: How I Backed It Up On My Way To Fame And Fortune
That actually made me laugh out loud!!! 😂🤣

Tony
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by abuss368 »

Someone once handed me a book by Rich Dad Poor Dad and Donald Trump.

Oh boy.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01BO ... tkin_p2_i4
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by chris319 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
Where were they in 1990?
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by firebirdparts »

abuss368 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:24 pm Someone once handed me a book by Rich Dad Poor Dad and Donald Trump.

Oh boy.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01BO ... tkin_p2_i4
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by totesmagotes »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
I thoroughly enjoyed Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing" and Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". While not particularly actionable from an asset allocation standpoint, I really, really like Thaler's "Misbehaving" and Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" for explaining why we do the things we do. Again, these may not be entirely about investing, per se, but the material they present certainly can significantly affect how we invest. They provide the background materials that can inform some of the great discussion that occurs on here with the people you've listed.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by WarAdmiral »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:05 pm
i'll throw the kyosaki books in there too (rich dad, poor dad).
This was the first book i read on investing when i was 19. You do learn stuff subconsciously though at the time you may not appreciate it. It taught me the difference between assets and liability. Years later at age 27, a college buddy of mine bought a brand new Audi and told me how great an investment it was. That's when i appreciated reading this book..
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by chris319 »

On YouTube Jack Bogle is interviewed by Tom Gardner, the bald-headed brother who does not act like an oversugared eight year old.

He does a pretty good job of interviewing Jack. I've gotten more out of that interview than several of the investment books I've had.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLgn_kVKjCE&t=1253s
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by SxSW »

Bear Market Baloney by Wade Cook, who later declared bankruptcy and went to prison.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

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The Motley Fool books.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

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UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
I read it for the articles.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by imak »

Book called "Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk" by Gary Antonacci

Absolute garbage, it advocates trend following based on 12 months moving average on major indices. Of course, the backtests shown in the book works beautifully over 2001-2002 and 2008 recessions.

Anyone following this method will get whipsawed all the time and literally lose money in a raging bull market (not to mention high taxes and very high turnover).
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

These books actually harmed my investment success: "How to Prepare for the Coming Bad Times" And "The Coming Economic Earthquake."

Peter Lynch got me away from the doomsday prepper books and got me started with stock market investing. I found his books useful.

My investment life really began to be really successful when I got into Bogle's books.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by bluegill »

All of these are GOOD BOOKS.
The Index Fund Solution, Evans
A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Maikiel
Index Funds, Will McClatchy
No One Would Listen, Markopolis
all of Bogle's books
BogleHeads' Guide to the 3-Fund Portfolio, Larimore <--- I have given this book as a gift to several people
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by B. Wellington »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
Good information on investing was VERY hard to find 25-30 years ago. Thanks to Mr. Bogle and others, the small investor now has access to that information to make sound investment decisions on their own.

FWIW...My bookshelf still has a copy of the Wall Street Money Machine. Which another poster pointed out that the Author spent time in prison. As well as a old copy of the Given's book...Who BTW was sued by a family in my home town and won for misleading and damaging information.

Also on my bookshelf is a small booklet, The Triumph of Indexing. Which I received in the mail circa 1995. The author? John Bogle.

And here we all are today....

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chris319
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by chris319 »

Gone are the days when you could visit a book store, pick up a book, flip through the pages and get a feel if it was worthwhile. I can't count the number of brick & mortar book stores that have closed in recent years. Now you have to put faith in the reviews on amazon.com
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Finridge »

chris319 wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:11 am Gone are the days when you could visit a book store, pick up a book, flip through the pages and get a feel if it was worthwhile. I can't count the number of brick & mortar book stores that have closed in recent years. Now you have to put faith in the reviews on amazon.com
You can actually browse the content of most books on Amazon. Go the product page for the book and look at the picture of the book cover. If right above it, it says "Look inside" with an arrow pointing downward, then click on the book cover.

This will give you options that often include looking seeing the table of contents, seeing the first chapter or so, or even being able to jump around through the book. The exact options will depend on what the copyright owner allows, but you can usually get a pretty good idea of what is in the book.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by rchmx1 »

Luckily The Boglehead Guide to Investing was the first investment book I read. After reading that I haven't felt very compelled to pick up any others. <3
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Morse Code »

I would put Rich Dad, Poor Dad at the top of my list of useless books in any category.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by juandelacruz »

Well, if I’d listened to Peter Lynch, I may have actually bought some Tesla stock when their showrooms were packed.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

juandelacruz wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:35 am Well, if I’d listened to Peter Lynch, I may have actually bought some Tesla stock when their showrooms were packed.
I did enjoy a ten bagger in OXY taking his advice to have a basket of stocks👍
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by TheDoctor91 »

I disagree on Lynch's books. It's fundamentally stock picking but IMO it's the best way to go about it if you do. Most people have products that they love or others love and talk about all the time. Why not invest in those companies? Look at the apple fanatics lining up for years since 2010, why ignore that zest for a product? Why ignore the people raving about Tesla for years? Sure you won't be right all the time, some products fizzle out. But when it works, it works exceptionally well.

Of course, index investing is the better and safe way to go, but the advice could be much worse than what Lynch offers.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

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imak wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:49 pm Book called "Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk" by Gary Antonacci

Absolute garbage, it advocates trend following based on 12 months moving average on major indices. Of course, the backtests shown in the book works beautifully over 2001-2002 and 2008 recessions.

Anyone following this method will get whipsawed all the time and literally lose money in a raging bull market (not to mention high taxes and very high turnover).
I don't personally use the DM method, but it certainly hasn't 'literally lost money' since 2010. It's underperformed buy-and-hold, but that's to be expected in most bull markets. In general, timing strategies lose relative to buy-and-hold in bull markets but win in bear markets.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by dukeblue219 »

TheDoctor91 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:42 am I disagree on Lynch's books. It's fundamentally stock picking but IMO it's the best way to go about it if you do. Most people have products that they love or others love and talk about all the time. Why not invest in those companies? Look at the apple fanatics lining up for years since 2010, why ignore that zest for a product? Why ignore the people raving about Tesla for years? Sure you won't be right all the time, some products fizzle out. But when it works, it works exceptionally well.

Of course, index investing is the better and safe way to go, but the advice could be much worse than what Lynch offers.
I enjoyed Lynch's books as well. Stock picking isn't easy, isn't predictable, and isn't for everyone, but reading about his career is enjoyable. They're not useless in the "get rich quick with options" sense, but are good reads. Just don't take them to be instruction.

I even found the old Motley Fool books to be good reads. Their old books were in favor of S&P500 index investing and not being ripped off by bad actors, though they also liked buying hot stocks. Of course, the last 20 years of TMF have been much less useful IMO.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by imak »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:13 pm
imak wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:49 pm Book called "Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk" by Gary Antonacci

Absolute garbage, it advocates trend following based on 12 months moving average on major indices. Of course, the backtests shown in the book works beautifully over 2001-2002 and 2008 recessions.

Anyone following this method will get whipsawed all the time and literally lose money in a raging bull market (not to mention high taxes and very high turnover).
I don't personally use the DM method, but it certainly hasn't 'literally lost money' since 2010. It's underperformed buy-and-hold, but that's to be expected in most bull markets. In general, timing strategies lose relative to buy-and-hold in bull markets but win in bear markets.
Agree, this strategy is supposed to underperform/whipsaw in bull markets but there is no guarantee that Dual Momentum will certainly outperform in bear markets. Unlike value, there is no underlying economic reasoning for long horizon mean-reversion to happen. Returns lost in whipsaws are lost forever.

Dual momentum strategy specification is extremely fragile and dispersion in returns is vast for various implementations.

For more on this, checkout this quantitative case study on the Dual Momentum strategy:
https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/01/ ... entum-gem/
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by jhsu802701 »

chris319 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:46 pm Then I bought "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. Lots of vague advice. Short of spending 23 hours a day pouring over financial statements, he suggests looking at a company's parking lot to observe the number of cars parked there. Well, OK, assuming there is such a company within a reasonable distance of your home. Not in that book, Peter gave some of my favorite stock-picking advice "Never buy stocks that go down". Yes, he actually said that. I can imagine a scenario like this: "Hello, Mr. (or Ms.) Broker? I'm thinking about buying XYZ. Is it going to go down?" Mr. (or Ms.) Broker says, "Let me pull up my stock chart of the future which is available only to stockbrokers. Yes, it's going to go down. I'd stay away from it."
You're the first person I've ever heard of who did NOT like that book.

Although I disagree with Peter Lynch on some things, I regard _One Up On Wall Street_ as required reading for all investors. While most of the great investors have specialized in one particular approach, Peter Lynch has been eclectic enough to succeed with a wide variety of approaches, including turnarounds, cyclicals, asset plays, value, slow growth, stalwarts, and fast growth. He shows that there are multiple good approaches to pick stocks but that you need to know your stocks at least as well as a car dealership knows its cars. If you don't understand what you own, you'll all too easily be scared into selling just because the stock price jiggles downward or the Wall Street gossip machine has a bearish narrative about your stock.
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Re: Useless Investment Books

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Everyone's Money Book
by Sonny Bloch

"Two money experts team up to tell listeners how they can proceed confidently into their financial future, explaining how to maximize returns on cash, pick winning stocks, select mutual funds, and more."

Sonny Bloch was a lounge singer who dovetailed his career into a fifteen-year career as a financial talk radio host heard on over 170 stations in the U.S. from 1980 to 1995 who defrauded investors of more than $24 million.

Bloch, his son, and associates had allegedly been involved in a variety of investment fraud schemes.

One scheme sold interest in gold bars that were actually painted ordinary metal bars. Many of his investment recommendations caused his listeners to lose millions of dollars because the true financial viability of the schemes were improperly hidden from investors.

Many of the investment scheme's backers paid to appear on the Sonny Bloch Show and conspired with Bloch to hide the fact that many of these involved companies that were already failing.

One scheme solicited paid "memberships" with the proceeds used to pay for the purchase of a group of radio stations in Florida and Connecticut.

Another pivotal scheme for which Bloch was indicted involved the sale of unregistered shares over the radio, which is illegal.

Later in his rater radio career, allegedly illegitimate wireless cable investment schemes were heavily promoted on his radio show.

Bloch was also indicted for tax evasion.
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abuss368
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by abuss368 »

rchmx1 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:18 am Luckily The Boglehead Guide to Investing was the first investment book I read. After reading that I haven't felt very compelled to pick up any others. <3
Wonderful feedback. Most investors would gain from the investment, financial knowledge, and wisdom provided in that book.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by willthrill81 »

imak wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:38 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:13 pm
imak wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:49 pm Book called "Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk" by Gary Antonacci

Absolute garbage, it advocates trend following based on 12 months moving average on major indices. Of course, the backtests shown in the book works beautifully over 2001-2002 and 2008 recessions.

Anyone following this method will get whipsawed all the time and literally lose money in a raging bull market (not to mention high taxes and very high turnover).
I don't personally use the DM method, but it certainly hasn't 'literally lost money' since 2010. It's underperformed buy-and-hold, but that's to be expected in most bull markets. In general, timing strategies lose relative to buy-and-hold in bull markets but win in bear markets.
Agree, this strategy is supposed to underperform/whipsaw in bull markets but there is no guarantee that Dual Momentum will certainly outperform in bear markets. Unlike value, there is no underlying economic reasoning for long horizon mean-reversion to happen. Returns lost in whipsaws are lost forever.

Dual momentum strategy specification is extremely fragile and dispersion in returns is vast for various implementations.

For more on this, checkout this quantitative case study on the Dual Momentum strategy:
https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/01/ ... entum-gem/
I agree that virtually any timing strategy should be expected to underperform in a bull market. And I agree that there are no guarantees of outperformance of anything, including buy-and-hold. Those pursuing any investment approach should be aware of the risks, because every strategy has risks.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Raymond
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Re: Useless Investment Books

Post by Raymond »

chris319 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:27 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:11 pm Why would anyone on this forum read books about investing when they have access to regular posts from such investment gurus as nisiprius, grabiner, livesoft, Kevin M, Taylor Larimore, Rick Ferri, and others?
Where were they in 1990?
Exactly. May as well have asked, "Why would anyone use payphones in the 1980s when they could have used smartphones?"

1. Because that's all we had back then.

2. Because we didn't know any better.

I even bought Givens' cassette tapes intending to listen to them, but that never happened.

However, "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need" by Andrew Tobias was very useful.
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