Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

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dt123
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by dt123 »

Still amazes me how so many of these pro-crypto posts sound just like the GME posts on RH during the run-up. Same play book it seems.

There's very good evidence that the prices of crypto are manipulated by the few whales in each crypto pod. Wash sales, spoofing, and social media shills can swing the price up or down in ways that are outlawed in any regulated market.

Sure, some people early to the scam made a lot of money innocently, but those days are long gone. Feeling misery over not investing in crypto last year is like feeling miserable you didn't play the winning lottery numbers yesterday--if only you'd known what they were going to be....

Huge amounts of money being spent now to pump crypto even higher. And Turkey has outlawed it come the end of the month.

Other people go to Vegas and sometimes win big. I'll continue to pass, and sleep well.
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JonnyDVM »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:23 pm Things are getting weird when dogecoin is up 92% in 24hour.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

It was started as a joke.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/do ... Dof%2Dwork.
This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:23 pm Things are getting weird when dogecoin is up 92% in 24hour.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

It was started as a joke.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/do ... Dof%2Dwork.
This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
I used to run raffles for my school. (The prize was you got to put a paragraph in the yearbook.)
I had 1,000 tickets. Sold them for $5 each.
Did I "create" $5k out of nowhere?
Nope. I convinced people to put their existing $5K in my (school's) pocket.

These coins are largely surging on wealth transfer, not wealth creation.
Perhaps that transfer will be rewarded by future wealth creation. But that ain't happened yet. We will see.
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by decapod10 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:23 pm Things are getting weird when dogecoin is up 92% in 24hour.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

It was started as a joke.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/do ... Dof%2Dwork.
This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
Crypto people feel about Dogecoin the way traditional investors feel about crypto, lol. They think it's a scam coin, but continue to see Doge go higher and higher. So I guess it's anybody's guess that this point.
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

ROTFL
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JonnyDVM »

vanbogle59 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:29 am
JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:23 pm Things are getting weird when dogecoin is up 92% in 24hour.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

It was started as a joke.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/do ... Dof%2Dwork.
This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
I used to run raffles for my school. (The prize was you got to put a paragraph in the yearbook.)
I had 1,000 tickets. Sold them for $5 each.
Did I "create" $5k out of nowhere?
Nope. I convinced people to put their existing $5K in my (school's) pocket.

These coins are largely surging on wealth transfer, not wealth creation.
Perhaps that transfer will be rewarded by future wealth creation. But that ain't happened yet. We will see.
No no no. Thats not the same at all. In the scenario you just laid out you had a hard cap of 1000 tickets. That’s classic supply and demand. There is no cap on Dogecoin. It would be like you selling tickets but you had the ability to create an infinite supply of them.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by decapod10 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:03 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:29 am
JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:23 pm Things are getting weird when dogecoin is up 92% in 24hour.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

It was started as a joke.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/do ... Dof%2Dwork.
This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
I used to run raffles for my school. (The prize was you got to put a paragraph in the yearbook.)
I had 1,000 tickets. Sold them for $5 each.
Did I "create" $5k out of nowhere?
Nope. I convinced people to put their existing $5K in my (school's) pocket.

These coins are largely surging on wealth transfer, not wealth creation.
Perhaps that transfer will be rewarded by future wealth creation. But that ain't happened yet. We will see.
No no no. Thats not the same at all. In the scenario you just laid out you had a hard cap of 1000 tickets. That’s classic supply and demand. There is no cap on Dogecoin. It would be like you selling tickets but you had the ability to create an infinite supply of them.
I'm not recommending Dogecoin at all, but there is a "limit" in some sense. There is a fixed cap on the number of new coins that can be created per year, so as time goes on, the % of new coins made will decrease over time. I believe it's roughly 4-5% annual increase in supply right now, but this % must trend lower over time.
flyfishers83
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by flyfishers83 »

It get's to be even an more dangerous tornado when people use their paper wealth as collateral to make bets on other crypto.
Valuethinker
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Valuethinker »

vanbogle59 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:29 am
JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:23 pm Things are getting weird when dogecoin is up 92% in 24hour.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

It was started as a joke.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/do ... Dof%2Dwork.
This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
I used to run raffles for my school. (The prize was you got to put a paragraph in the yearbook.)
I had 1,000 tickets. Sold them for $5 each.
Did I "create" $5k out of nowhere?
Nope. I convinced people to put their existing $5K in my (school's) pocket.

These coins are largely surging on wealth transfer, not wealth creation.
Perhaps that transfer will be rewarded by future wealth creation. But that ain't happened yet. We will see.
If people are managing to find a way to borrow to do this - say by increasing their home mortgages (or not paying them off as fast) then leverage, in a fractional deposit banking system, means money creation.

But it is not creating real economic value in any sense. One thing we learned in 2008-09 (or in 2000-03) is that you can borrow as much money as you like, but if the actual economic activity does not in some way increase the productivity of the economy as a whole, you are in an, ahem, house ... of cards.

Now the dot com boom also created a lot of telecoms infrastructure, and some nascent business models that have since become very important - Amazon, Facebook, Google. So too the railway and canal booms of the 19th century.

The US housing boom created too many McMansions in the wrong places which will fall apart. There are still subdivisions which are abandoned, apparently. But it did create more housing services so all those private rented homes now, are providing value to the economy - people living in them. Fundamentally a massive misallocation of resources (too many granite kitchen counter tops) but still producing some value for the inputs.

But this one? The whole point is burn computer cycles, and electricity, to generate more of something that is scarce - but harder each cycle you do it.

There *is* some value e.g. in allowing Iranians to bypass their country's high inflation and foreign exchange controls (but there were power outages due to the amount of electricity being so burned). That's got some value to the economy.
Valuethinker
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Valuethinker »

flyfishers83 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:25 pm It get's to be even an more dangerous tornado when people use their paper wealth as collateral to make bets on other crypto.
If they are able to do that, say by not repaying consumer or home mortgage loans ... then you have the recipe for a really harmful collapse. Depending on the scale.

My hope is this is more like the dot com bubble burst. A lot of people lost a lot of paper wealth (sticks hand up!) but the damage to the economy was a mild recession. The media-telecoms bubble bust that accompanied it was more harmful, but not outrageously so unless you happened to work in that industry (all those Nortel pensioners who lost their pensions as well as the value of their company stock...).

I could definitely see a scenario where the Fed raises interest rates, which starts another Emerging Market run (Turkey!). And as real interest rates are again positive, the attraction of "carry trade assets" (borrow cheap and invest for a higher return) starts to unravel - crypto among them. Then you have the recipe for quite a nice crash, that spreads from things like cryptos to stocks. Implosion leading to liquidation in one asset, leading to knock on effects in another, leading to implosion and liquidation ...

Of course that's not how it play out. Each drama is different in causation and chain of effects. Please not another 2008-09, I don't think the political structures of the western democracies could take it.
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JonnyDVM »

decapod10 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:14 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:03 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:29 am
JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm

This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
I used to run raffles for my school. (The prize was you got to put a paragraph in the yearbook.)
I had 1,000 tickets. Sold them for $5 each.
Did I "create" $5k out of nowhere?
Nope. I convinced people to put their existing $5K in my (school's) pocket.

These coins are largely surging on wealth transfer, not wealth creation.
Perhaps that transfer will be rewarded by future wealth creation. But that ain't happened yet. We will see.
No no no. Thats not the same at all. In the scenario you just laid out you had a hard cap of 1000 tickets. That’s classic supply and demand. There is no cap on Dogecoin. It would be like you selling tickets but you had the ability to create an infinite supply of them.
I'm not recommending Dogecoin at all, but there is a "limit" in some sense. There is a fixed cap on the number of new coins that can be created per year, so as time goes on, the % of new coins made will decrease over time. I believe it's roughly 4-5% annual increase in supply right now, but this % must trend lower over time.
There's no oversight over this whatsoever!
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
stoptothink
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by stoptothink »

My social media feeds were filled with posts saying just "Dogecoin"; came here to see why. I see some of my intelligent and otherwise quite financially conservative friends getting heavily involved. I'm staying on the sidelines.
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:03 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:29 am
JonnyDVM wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:37 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:23 pm Things are getting weird when dogecoin is up 92% in 24hour.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin

It was started as a joke.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/do ... Dof%2Dwork.
This is why I love crypto... Will enjoy the ride for now :sharebeer
RIght, it's fun. But even someone like me, not the sharpest tool in the shed, sees the problem here. People have created wealth with Dogecoin out of nothing. Significant wealth. Dogecoin is a thing where the creation of that thing is unlimited. Things that can be created infinitely should have no worth. So now we've created wealth out of thin air and THAT money is being exchanged for other crypto assets like bitcoin, inflating this bubble even further. So how much of crypto value is based on totally fabricated wealth? I don't know the answer to that. I'm assuming it's a lot. We can all admit that's an issue, right?
I used to run raffles for my school. (The prize was you got to put a paragraph in the yearbook.)
I had 1,000 tickets. Sold them for $5 each.
Did I "create" $5k out of nowhere?
Nope. I convinced people to put their existing $5K in my (school's) pocket.

These coins are largely surging on wealth transfer, not wealth creation.
Perhaps that transfer will be rewarded by future wealth creation. But that ain't happened yet. We will see.
No no no. Thats not the same at all. In the scenario you just laid out you had a hard cap of 1000 tickets. That’s classic supply and demand. There is no cap on Dogecoin. It would be like you selling tickets but you had the ability to create an infinite supply of them.
I agree with your point about the limits. Doge coin is like me with an unlimited supply of raffle tickets.
But, even when the # of raffle tickets has a hard cap, say BTC, the other half of the analogy holds.
As yet, these "inventions" have created very little wealth, or economic utility. But they have triggered enormous transfers (on the promise of creating wealth later???)
flyfishers83
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by flyfishers83 »

To put a further point on it, let's run with the raffle example. In the original example, the price and quantity were set from the beginning. Instead, suppose no set price, but people bid. You sell 100 raffle tickets for $.1-$1, and then $5 and then people start bidding up the price from $5 to $100. You say, oooohhhh, I should make more raffle tickets. Instead of classic supply and demand driving the price down, people just keep bidding them up. Now we're at $500. The people that bought at $5 say, wow did I make a good buy. I can flip these for a handy profit. As we get to the tail end, suppose people start saying, I don't have any cash, but I have raffle tickets to some other raffle. I don't want to sell those, but I'll use those as collateral to get cash to buy more raffle tickets, and now we're at $1000/ticket.

In this way, you have created "wealth" out of thin air. Because the only thing holding up this bag of wealth is air, history suggests it has to collapse at point. The timing and velocity are anybody's guess.
txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by txhill »

I'm quite bullish long term on BTC/ETH. They have real uses, despite what some people here seem to think. People really want a stable and easily tradeable store of value (bitcoin) and they want to be able to use decentralized applications (on ethereum). Dogecoin though might as well be pets.com in the late 1990s. Not much better than a pump and dump scheme, and sadly it will reflect poorly on the cryptocurrency space in general (which almost certainly is not done with big boom/bust cycles). But given 10 years or so, I think the space will continue to grow and value will eventually accrue to the most useful crypto assets, so I'm in it for the long haul.
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

flyfishers83 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:40 pm To put a further point on it, let's run with the raffle example. In the original example, the price and quantity were set from the beginning. Instead, suppose no set price, but people bid. You sell 100 raffle tickets for $.1-$1, and then $5 and then people start bidding up the price from $5 to $100. You say, oooohhhh, I should make more raffle tickets. Instead of classic supply and demand driving the price down, people just keep bidding them up. Now we're at $500. The people that bought at $5 say, wow did I make a good buy. I can flip these for a handy profit. As we get to the tail end, suppose people start saying, I don't have any cash, but I have raffle tickets to some other raffle. I don't want to sell those, but I'll use those as collateral to get cash to buy more raffle tickets, and now we're at $1000/ticket.

In this way, you have created "wealth" out of thin air. Because the only thing holding up this bag of wealth is air, history suggests it has to collapse at point. The timing and velocity are anybody's guess.
To be fair, your criticism could be directed at any fiat currency. :D
In my mind, the difference is the quality of the government.

If you have a good government behind the fiat, then the size of the currency pool is in proportion with the wealth of the nation. and grows along side it. But governments can break that relationship. We've seen poorly run governments do precisely that. BTC takes that risk away.

However, at least at the moment, there is no "wealth of nation" to measure it against. That may change if desire becomes accepted custom. Or it may not.
Shalom Aleichem
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Shalom Aleichem »

The average poster here on BH seems to be moderately politically liberal and VERY fiscally conservative and VERY frugal. They seem to be mostly educated and in intellectual fields (computer programming seems to be popular, same for midlevel managers). They seem to analyze and execute based on data not emotions. The data are clear that the best long-term returns are with a broad based index equity fund, and that a broad based bond fund (or similar) should be considered for ballast. Are there exceptions where people outperform this? Yes - but those situations are very uncommon and not predictable. Therefore, the vast majority of people will end up with more money following Jack Bogle's strategy.

Given all of the above, and having read a lot of posters, it seems to me that BH's are not averse to changing their minds but need to see unambiguous data. Crypto is sufficiently new that there is a strong bias against it, as there isn't really any historical analogy that was successful. You can talk about tulips and beanie babies, but that's silly and there really isn't any good historical analogy. I think then that any new paradigm will be reflexively rejected by the personalities on this board until there are enough data. Which is why MOST people who gamble on the next big thing will lose out and will have been better off VTSAX and go to sleep. But let's face it, you can feel the jealousy and regret on this website about people who bought BTC at a nickel and it's worth millions now.
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Does VTSAX own CoinBase now?
That's how BH's (eventually) join the party.
Assuming crypto is just getting started, BH's will reap their fair share of the growth.
Gadget
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Gadget »

The real crypto community despises Dogecoin even more than most bogleheads despise crypto. They all know it is a giant pump and dump scheme by select whales with no pretense at ever having functional value. If Dogecoin has some bug in its code, there are no developers working on it to fix it. And it will hurt the global perception of all crypto when the doge bubble bursts.
Hoongajji
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Hoongajji »

Go COIN!

I reaped some capital gains from a house sale.

Long COIN!

:sharebeer
Uniswap
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Uniswap »

Bogleheads already have crypto exposure.

https://bitcointreasuries.org/
txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by txhill »

Ray Dalio today recommended 20% of a portfolio should be diversified into Bitcoin due to dollar debasement. More than I’d expect him to recommend! Also unsurprisingly said that bonds and cash are complete trash. https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-16/ ... Dalio.html
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

I will bet $1 that Bridgewater is not 20% BTC.
occambogle
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by occambogle »

Uniswap wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:23 pm Bogleheads already have crypto exposure.

https://bitcointreasuries.org/
Interesting site... does "% BTC" mean perecentage of that company's value held in Bitcoin?
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typical.investor
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by typical.investor »

txhill wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:50 pm Ray Dalio today recommended 20% of a portfolio should be diversified into Bitcoin due to dollar debasement. More than I’d expect him to recommend! Also unsurprisingly said that bonds and cash are complete trash. https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-16/ ... Dalio.html
Dollar debasement?

Ok I will bite. Given the run up in Dodgecoin and others, can’t we say Bitcoin is debased too?

I mean if the premise that Bitcoin is valuable by scarcity (ignoring forks for now), then doesn’t an unlimited number of crypto currencies debase it?

Anyway, once Chinese miners have made their money and Bitcoin is mined, I bet China follows Turkey to outlaw it and replace it with their own currency.

I’ll hold foreign stocks to counter USD weakness.

Anyway, Dalio also says publicly that he is “intimately involved with policymakers [in China]”. I think his interests align with trash talking the USD (probably to appease the powers that be where he wants to do more business] or he wouldn’t be doing it. I don’t see him giving charitable advice.
txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by txhill »

typical.investor wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:45 am Dollar debasement?

Ok I will bite. Given the run up in Dodgecoin and others, can’t we say Bitcoin is debased too?

I mean if the premise that Bitcoin is valuable by scarcity (ignoring forks for now), then doesn’t an unlimited number of crypto currencies debase it?
I don't agree. That's like saying if we suddenly found a bunch more copper, the value of gold would drop. Or if the EU started printing a ton more Euros, that would cause the dollar to fall. Isn't it the opposite, if anything?
Anyway, once Chinese miners have made their money and Bitcoin is mined, I bet China follows Turkey to outlaw it and replace it with their own currency.

I’ll hold foreign stocks to counter USD weakness.
Dollar debasement and dollar weakness are different. Dollar debasement is due to the excessive printing of money--and this is happening, just look at the Fed balance sheet. Dollar weakness happens when the US is the only country debasing its own currency. That's not the case; everyone is printing fiat like crazy. So in relative terms, the USD isn't showing a ton of weakness yet (although it could eventually).
Anyway, Dalio also says publicly that he is “intimately involved with policymakers [in China]”. I think his interests align with trash talking the USD (probably to appease the powers that be where he wants to do more business] or he wouldn’t be doing it. I don’t see him giving charitable advice.
I can't speak to geopolitical issues--there certainly is some regulatory and geopolitical risk. But that risk is dwindling, I believe. Yes, China and every country (including US) will use their own digital currencies. But the sophisticated nations who have a handle on their monetary policy will not need to ban bitcoin; it doesn't threaten the dollar or a digital dollar, at least not directly (and not for as long as the tax code treats it as property). Also bitcoin mining is still hugely profitable and will continue to be so for a long time, and even after that transaction fees will make some mining worthwhile.

Finally, I agree that no one should take a billionaire's advice as charitable. But that doesn't mean all conspiracy theories about them are true.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Pinotage »

Gadget wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:22 pm The real crypto community despises Dogecoin even more than most bogleheads despise crypto. They all know it is a giant pump and dump scheme by select whales with no pretense at ever having functional value. If Dogecoin has some bug in its code, there are no developers working on it to fix it. And it will hurt the global perception of all crypto when the doge bubble bursts.
Something the real crypto community and most bogleheads can absolutely agree on: it would be insufferable to have a brother in-law who made a fortune on a "shrewd dogecoin investment". Barf.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Uniswap »

typical.investor wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:45 am

Dollar debasement?

Ok I will bite. Given the run up in Dodgecoin and others, can’t we say Bitcoin is debased too?

I mean if the premise that Bitcoin is valuable by scarcity (ignoring forks for now), then doesn’t an unlimited number of crypto currencies debase it?

Anyway, once Chinese miners have made their money and Bitcoin is mined, I bet China follows Turkey to outlaw it and replace it with their own currency.

No. Dogecoin has nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Miners can still make money off of transactions, even after the last Bitcoin is mined, which will be 100 years from now.

The Digital Renminbi was already released last year. Which is why House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy was on CNBC this week, telling Yellen and Powell to stop wasting their time trying to stop cryptos and instead focus on how to catch up.

https://twitter.com/squawkcnbc/status/1 ... 90856?s=21
Last edited by Uniswap on Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by alluringreality »

occambogle wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:36 am
Uniswap wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:23 pm Bogleheads already have crypto exposure.

https://bitcointreasuries.org/
Interesting site... does "% BTC" mean perecentage of that company's value held in Bitcoin?
Yes, the value of Michael Saylor's business primarily hinges on how Bitcoin performs. Most people with red laser eyes on Twitter have financial conflicts of interest regarding Bitcoin, so it may be prudent to question if they really have a reason to provide accurate information. I consider it rather odd that Bitcoin supporters point to The Bitcoin Standard as reference material about Bitcoin, yet the author's rants on Twitter indicate he eagerly wants his book forward to feature an endorsement from Michael Saylor.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JonnyDVM »

Uniswap wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:52 am
typical.investor wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:45 am

Dollar debasement?

Ok I will bite. Given the run up in Dodgecoin and others, can’t we say Bitcoin is debased too?

I mean if the premise that Bitcoin is valuable by scarcity (ignoring forks for now), then doesn’t an unlimited number of crypto currencies debase it?

Anyway, once Chinese miners have made their money and Bitcoin is mined, I bet China follows Turkey to outlaw it and replace it with their own currency.

No. Dogecoin has nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Miners can still make money off of transactions, even after the last Bitcoin is mined, which will be 100 years from now.

The Digital Renminbi was already released last year. Which is why House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy was on CNBC this week, telling Yellen and Powell to stop wasting their time trying to stop cryptos and instead focus on how to catch up.

https://twitter.com/squawkcnbc/status/1 ... 90856?s=21
Well that’s just a non factual statement and it’s statements like that that are the reason many bogleheads are adverse to crypto. Of course they are related to each other.

It’s easy, VERY easy, to turn your inflated value Dogecoin into Bitcoin. Up 100k on Doge? Easy to flip into Bitcoin. Want to turn into cash? Ok, now that 100k is in your checking account and people start asking questions as to how it got there. Especially the tax man. Turning it into Bitcoin makes much more sense, especially for a crypto believer, and that helps the price of Bitcoin.

Secondly if I have a rare spiderman comic book and you have a Batman comic, and my Spiderman comic abruptly plummets in value, your Batman comic will too. You can say “well that’s dumb, one is DC universe, one is Marvel! Totally unrelated!” Here’s the thing. To the rest of the world they’re both comic books. The rest of world lumps all crypto in one bucket.

An appropriate response would be, “Yah, Doge and the like are a problem, but I don’t think it’s going to have a sizable impact. Or Doge is a problem but here is how it’s going to be rectified...”. When you dismiss it as a problem at all, and start rambling on about your nodes, it’s hard to take you guys seriously.
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:18 pm ... and start rambling on about your nodes...
Heavens, if the node rambling continues, surely the moderators will step in. This isn't the dark web.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Corsair »

Twitter wrote: U.S. TREASURY TO CHARGE SEVERAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOR MONEY LAUNDERING USING CRYPTOCURRENCIES -SOURCES
Probably nothing.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by typical.investor »

Uniswap wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:52 am
No. Dogecoin has nothing to do with Bitcoin.
OK. And gold has nothing to do with silver or copper or other precious metals.

And precious metals can be created to an infinite degree just as cryptocurrencies can.

I see your point. Cryptos are valuable due to their scarcity in the same way precious metals are. OK.

My point was that if there is a concern that the Fed is creating too many dollars, that that concern should apply to cryptos as well. The difference to me is that the Fed has a balance sheet and that what will happen is that treasuries will roll off the balance sheet at some point when the Fed decides it is appropriate to do so.

Cryptocurrencies are truly limitless.

And inflation? It now costs $51.56 to process a transaction in bitcoins. That is up from $0.02 on 12/31/2010.

Maybe off-ledger solutions will emerge, but that itself if widely used would incentives a pool of miners to do something nefarious I think.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by decapod10 »

typical.investor wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:08 pm
Uniswap wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:52 am
No. Dogecoin has nothing to do with Bitcoin.
OK. And gold has nothing to do with silver or copper or other precious metals.

And precious metals can be created to an infinite degree just as cryptocurrencies can.

I see your point. Cryptos are valuable due to their scarcity in the same way precious metals are. OK.

My point was that if there is a concern that the Fed is creating too many dollars, that that concern should apply to cryptos as well. The difference to me is that the Fed has a balance sheet and that what will happen is that treasuries will roll off the balance sheet at some point when the Fed decides it is appropriate to do so.

Cryptocurrencies are truly limitless.

And inflation? It now costs $51.56 to process a transaction in bitcoins. That is up from $0.02 on 12/31/2010.

Maybe off-ledger solutions will emerge, but that itself if widely used would incentives a pool of miners to do something nefarious I think.
I'm not really a huge believer in Bitcoin, but I also don't really understand the argument that people can make unlimited random cryptocurrencies and therefore Bitcoin is worthless. But if you believe that, then certainly investing in crypto doesn't make sense.

It also doesn't really address things like Ethereum, where if systems and programs are running on Ethereum, you can't just replace Ethereum just like that. You could over time, but there is some cost and inertia fighting against that as well, and then that's like saying Windows is worthless because I can make Decapod10 OS.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JBTX »

I broke down. I FOMO'd! This afternoon set up a coinbase account for grins and giggles. Entertainment purposes only. Put $100 in Bitcoin and $100 in etherium. Whoops! Actually put $200 in etherium. My initial investment didn't show up so I did again. But later it showed up.

Now six hours later my $300 is down to $275!!! :oops:

Edit: three minutes later $269!!! My crypto is falling like a stone!
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by decapod10 »

JBTX wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:27 pm I broke down. I FOMO'd! This afternoon set up a coinbase account for grins and giggles. Entertainment purposes only. Put $100 in Bitcoin and $100 in etherium. Whoops! Actually put $200 in etherium. My initial investment didn't show up so I did again. But later it showed up.

Now six hours later my $300 is down to $275!!! :oops:
lol, 20% swings in crypto are non-events in the cryptoworld. Better get used to it if you're interested on holding.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JBTX »

decapod10 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:30 pm
JBTX wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:27 pm I broke down. I FOMO'd! This afternoon set up a coinbase account for grins and giggles. Entertainment purposes only. Put $100 in Bitcoin and $100 in etherium. Whoops! Actually put $200 in etherium. My initial investment didn't show up so I did again. But later it showed up.

Now six hours later my $300 is down to $275!!! :oops:
lol, 20% swings in crypto are non-events in the cryptoworld. Better get used to it if you're interested on holding.
Now down to $266!!! This is a disaster!!!!!


:D

Now $258!! :evil: :evil:
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Samosa22 »

Lol, probably the most manipulated market in the human history.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Random Musings »

Samosa22 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:12 pm Lol, probably the most manipulated market in the human history.
Ape hands strong.

Or sumtin' like that.

RM
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by decapod10 »

Samosa22 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:12 pm Lol, probably the most manipulated market in the human history.
For sure there is a lot of manipulation in cryptocurrency. There are actually chat groups that try to organize pump and dumps and things like that, so you need to be careful, particularly in the low market cap coins.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by barberakb »

I actually bought $200 worth of dodgecoin when it was 5 cents. Wish I would have bought it sooner...
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

$52,700
Apparently the "soaring" has encountered some mild turbulence. :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer :beer
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by Prahasaurus »

Crypto goes both up and down. Good reminder for those who invest with no clear plan, or hoping to get rich quick. It's a brutal market, you will see swings of 20-30% quite frequently. You can have bear markets that last years. If you are using leverage, you can be liquidated in a flash.

I think a lot of this is crypto's dependence on Bitcoin, an asset that is similar to gold in so many ways, and difficult to value. I'm hoping that with the rise of DeFi, over time, we'll see less cyclicality in crypto pricing. DeFi helps bring more traditional valuation metrics to crypto, e.g. discounted cash flows, or just multiple comparisons, etc. Ethereum moving to Proof of Stake will help a lot, as well.

It's a beautiful Sunday, going to go out and try to forget how much my portfolio has dropped over the past 12 hours. :shock: I think we'll be back to normal soon and the bull market will continue. But who knows...
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by locke12 »

Yes it never goes straight up, the rise to 20K had several 20-30% corrections on the way up. At least 7-8 of them. While this could always be the end of the run, it's just a normal correction so far.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JonnyDVM »

vanbogle59 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:24 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:18 pm ... and start rambling on about your nodes...
Heavens, if the node rambling continues, surely the moderators will step in. This isn't the dark web.
Lol. At least I can appreciate the sense of humor. The very obvious pump and dumps and overleveraging though... this crypto frontier is worse than the Wild West.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

FYI - Crypto drops should be discussed in Cryptocurrency in Free Fall.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

LadyGeek wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:17 am FYI - Crypto drops should be discussed in Cryptocurrency in Free Fall.
Thank gawd for moderators. Really. Boards like this are horrible without them.
But, this is one of the funniest things I've seen:
One thread for crypto soars!
Another for crypto plummets!
ROTFL

I guess it will be a long time before the logical, third, and final thread appears:
Crypto is boring
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by JHU ALmuni »

My initial $8000 investment in dogecoin is now worth half a million... I'm in shock :sharebeer
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by bloom2708 »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 8:24 pm My initial $8000 investment in dogecoin is now worth half a million... I'm in shock :sharebeer
Well done.

Last fall a friend was ordering a teardrop camper for $20k. At that time we were talking about crypto and various coins and I said you could put that in Dogecoin!

We laughed. If he had put the $20k in Doge, he would be retired and could own a fleet of campers.

Poor hypotheticals, but I applaud your timing. I do hope you take some off the table with that type of gain. And plan for the tax man.
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Re: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Continues to Soar!

Post by sojersey »

Dogecoin mooning, this anthem goes out to all the Bogleheads :wink: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbI31x3FpS0
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