Cramer: Worst-Case Dow View is 5320

mathwhiz · Post by **mathwhiz** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 6:43 pm

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10468785 ... -view.html

Levels elude me. Levels like, "The Dow can trade to 6000." Or, "The Dow's headed to 5000" or "It can take out the 1991 lows." I don't know anything about those. I like stock-by-stock analysis, not top-down. I like individual stock valuation and individual stock levels, not top-down levels. That's how I think. I total them to see where they could go.

So, today, I calculated the bear case to see where we can go, case by case. Keep in mind that this analysis was done with an eye toward the continued wealth destruction, and it is not something that I expect will happen right now, all at once. We are due for the inevitable bounce, and I don't want to ignore it.

And with that note of caution, drum roll please: 5320. I simply can't get any lower no matter what I do. I just can't. So with that in mind, you can say that 15%, give or take a few percent, might actually be, are you ready, buyable if we get to 6000. Frankly, after this analysis, I am more sanguine, not less, because of how harsh and disaster-oriented this line-by-line calculation is.

No further ado, here's how we get to 5320, something that I simply can't believe will happen before the fated bear market rally spike.

twacapt · Post by **twacapt** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:17 pm

No one should take Cramer seriously. He's an entertainer, not financial advisor.

newport1 · Post by **newport1** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:19 pm

I'll take 5320. I've heard much more disasterous predictions from others.

astroturf · Post by **astroturf** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:20 pm

That's a futile exercise by Cramer. Mathematically, the Dow can't go lower than 0. Anything above that is just guessing. And that's really all he does, guess, and most times he's wrong.

Dutchgirl · Post by **Dutchgirl** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:26 pm

After seeing Cramer eviscerated on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, can anyone still listen to, let alone repeat, his pronouncements?

Yoka

bluemonday · Post by **bluemonday** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:37 pm

astroturf wrote:That's a futile exercise by Cramer. Mathematically, the Dow can't go lower than 0. Anything above that is just guessing. And that's really all he does, guess, and most times he's wrong.

Hey, he did the "line by line" calculation, that's enough for me. At 5320 I'm all in, unless he tells me different later.

tutaloo · Post by **tutaloo** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:02 pm

woof755 · Post by **woof755** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:09 pm

:roll:

Oh, Cramer.

:roll:

bigH · Post by **bigH** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:12 pm

tutaloo wrote:We have all seen various numerical downside targets. Yet, even knowing of these downside possibilities - I remained (and remain) exposed to equities. Last June I guessed 720 S&P. Last October I guessed 600 S&P. Boy, am I getting tired of knowing this could happen, and then it does happen.

Tonight, I take comfort in that the worst case downside target I calculated is 450 S&P - which is only a further 30% down from here (P/E 9 on $50 earnings - a historical deflationary P/E). Just another 30% down would make me widely happy - our often touted 50% (equities = max losses /2), well, darn - I suppose it could happen.

However, one of these days I will wake up and I will be wrong. It will stop falling. One day. In the mean time, the sun remains coming up tomorrow.
tutaloo

I too for what its worth (which is nothing), believe S P 450 is the doomsday bottom.

cato · Post by **cato** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:11 pm

Dutchgirl wrote:After seeing Cramer eviscerated on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, can anyone still listen to, let alone repeat, his pronouncements?

Yoka

I've seen Cramer. Who is Jon Stewart?

knowmad · Post by **knowmad** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:20 pm

tutaloo wrote:In the mean time, the sun remains coming up tomorrow.

As they say, past performance is not a predictor of future results.

mephistophles · Post by **mephistophles** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:33 pm

Why would anyone take Cramer seriously on investing. I don't even like him as an entertainer.

moneywise2 · Post by **moneywise2** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:33 pm

I say 6097.56

INDUBITABLY · Post by **INDUBITABLY** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:40 pm

Why are we discussing Cramer on this forum, of all places? Not only this thread, either, this one, too. What an utter waste of space.

Kenkat · Post by **Kenkat** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 9:56 am

I actually read an interview of Jim Cramer in Esquire magazine this month. I am a little less critical of him than I used to be. He has an ego (as someone in his line of profession usually does), but he was a little more humble than I expected. I do think some of his antics are for entertainment value.

Ken

tutaloo · Post by **tutaloo** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:25 am

tutaloo · Post by **tutaloo** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:49 am

rcshouldis · Post by **rcshouldis** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 4:50 pm

newport1 wrote:I'll take 5320. I've heard much more disasterous predictions from others.

I believe that the 5320 is a worst case scenario according to Cramer.

LH · Post by LH » Sat Mar 07, 2009 6:34 pm

Dutchgirl wrote:After seeing Cramer eviscerated on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, can anyone still listen to, let alone repeat, his pronouncements?

Yoka

Do most people take John Stewart seriously? Does John Steward take himself seriously? Maybe he does, I dunno. He is a comic right? I mean, SNL makes fun of people,does one base ones views on that?

Letterman, Stewart, and SNL are entertainers.

These people are basically just masters of Ad Hominen, both verbally, and physically. The wry funny faces and such. Its funny stuff sure. But you take out all the funny faces, and presentation, the snazzy media, one is not left with much substantial in my view. Just opinion put in a funny manner.

Its funny ad hominem fluff is it not? Anyone got a link to John Stewart eviscerating cramer? How exactly did he critique him? Is it something substantive? Or was it just a very good comic doing a funny series of proffesional class putdowns??????

If you wrote it out here, In simple text, what would you have? I bet not much. If there is something, please share in text here how he eviscerates cramer:

Also post a link to the video if you got it, stewart is funny : )

I think the ad hominem distinction in these times is key, and to me has seemingly been largely lost. Maybe not with this poster, maybe stewart does factually eviscerate him.

INDUBITABLY · Post by **INDUBITABLY** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 6:56 pm

LH wrote: Also post a link to the video if you got it, stewart is funny : )

Here you go. I'm not sure if you can really call it ad hominem when it's mostly the words of Jim Cramer himself.

cjackson0 · Post by **cjackson0** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 6:57 pm

LH wrote: These people are basically just masters of Ad Hominen, both verbally, and physically. The wry funny faces and such. Its funny stuff sure. But you take out all the funny faces, and presentation, the snazzy media, one is not left with much substantial in my view. Just opinion put in a funny manner.

Its funny ad hominem fluff is it not? Anyone got a link to John Stewart eviscerating cramer? How exactly did he critique him? Is it something substantive? Or was it just a very good comic doing a funny series of proffesional class putdowns??????

John Stewart can win the Ad Hominem argument by pointing out "He's Just a Comedian." He's doesn't try to pretend he's an economist, journalist, or anything other than a jackass with a camera.

LH · Post by LH » Sat Mar 07, 2009 7:35 pm

cjackson0 wrote:
LH wrote: These people are basically just masters of Ad Hominen, both verbally, and physically. The wry funny faces and such. Its funny stuff sure. But you take out all the funny faces, and presentation, the snazzy media, one is not left with much substantial in my view. Just opinion put in a funny manner.

Its funny ad hominem fluff is it not? Anyone got a link to John Stewart eviscerating cramer? How exactly did he critique him? Is it something substantive? Or was it just a very good comic doing a funny series of proffesional class putdowns??????

John Stewart can win the Ad Hominem argument by pointing out "He's Just a Comedian." He's doesn't try to pretend he's an economist, journalist, or anything other than a jackass with a camera.

You and I agree I think, and from what you say, you, I and stewart agree : )

Stewart is just ad hominem funny stuff, he is a comedian. But why it makes this site then? Under investing, theory news and general? In general, he puts someone up, makes funny faces and comments couple with video that degrade the person in a nicely done funny way.

Attacking the person is ad hominem, even if funny and entertaining. John Stewart is political, and makes political arguments, by attacking the person in a funny and entertaining ad hominem manner.

That link is largely a form of simple ad hominem attack. "intellegent as a box of parrots" and such.

wikpedia

An ad hominem argument, also known as argumentum ad hominem (Latin: "argument to the man", "argument against the man") consists of replying to an argument or factual claim by attacking or appealing to a characteristic or belief of the source making the argument or claim, rather than by addressing the substance of the argument or producing evidence against the claim. The process of proving or disproving the claim is thereby subverted, and the argumentum ad hominem works to change the subject.

FFR1608 · Post by **FFR1608** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 8:15 pm

LH - Attacking the person is ad hominem, even if funny and entertaining. John Stewart is political, and makes political arguments, by attacking the person in a funny and entertaining ad hominem manner.

You are close, but no cigar for logic. Attacking the man is not what Jon Stewart does, he attacks a man's logic. Uses the man's own words to make him look foolish. An attack on a man's logic is not an ad hominem attack, it is the mere pointing out of logical errors in a man's words. Jon Stewart expertly uses a huge video library. And if the event is live, he is quick to catch logic errors then too.

SP-diceman · Post by **SP-diceman** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 9:08 pm

I actually read an interview of Jim Cramer in Esquire magazine this month. I am a little less critical of him than I used to be. He has an ego (as someone in his line of profession usually does), but he was a little more humble than I expected. I do think some of his antics are for entertainment value.

Just my 2 cents. I think Cramer see's people view of Wall
Street as stuffed shirts talking business. So he tries to make
it more entertaining and approachable to the average person.

Who are we kidding here the guy did run a hedge fund.

Also, I think its something completely different to look
at the predictions of others and say: Is that possible?
(which is what he is doing)
Rather than him making a prediction.

Thanks
SP-diceman

Betelgeuse · Post by **Betelgeuse** » Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:37 pm

Once it reaches 5200, he will have a new Worst-Case Dow View, 200

Cramer is bad news.

MWCA · Post by **MWCA** » Sun Mar 08, 2009 1:26 am

cato wrote:
Dutchgirl wrote:After seeing Cramer eviscerated on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, can anyone still listen to, let alone repeat, his pronouncements?

Yoka
I've seen Cramer. Who is Jon Stewart?

Some goofball on the comedy channel. Probably tells you all you need to know about him