Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

[Anon9001]

I just figured out from Swedroe that positive skewed assets have lower expected returns due to everyone liking them. Think of lottery ticket for instance. If your skew preference is average putting the ARK portion into Index seems to be good idea.

[burritoLover]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

[MinnGuyInvesting]

I appreciate you doing this. Much like indexing was considered a provocative means of investing compared to active management in its infancy, cryptocurrency and disruptive innovation should be explored and understood, even if it is controversial to what we discuss on this site. That open-mindedness will either allow for further support that indexing is right or that maybe there are other scenarios one should consider (based on their goals, risk tolerance, etc). Ethereum for example could have a multitude of uses in the future but I’ll stick to stocks.

Admittedly, I am not a Tesla fan boy and I don’t quite understand how they are the 5th largest company by market cap but I’ll spare that debate for another thread. My question to you – are you concerned with the amount of losses that are shown by the top companies in say, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)? The top 10 holdings have 2 maybe 3 (Baidu and Proto Labs) companies that show at least a brief history of consistently making money. I say maybe 3 because Tesla has yet to prove that they can make money without EV Credits. But even if you factor in Tesla, only 3 companies in the top ten are just recently making money. I understand a growth stock may not reap rewards until it scales but does that give you any concern?

I don’t want to talk you out of this because I want to see how this works (and may even grab some ARK) but curious to get your thoughts on the lack of income generated by the ETF’s underlying companies. Good luck!

Regarding ARKK and profitable companies.
Yes, and no.
With any investment there can be concern.
(Here's a site that tracks ARK's investments). https://cathiesark.com/

1. ARKK is actively managed. So I'm "paying" someone to make those decisions for me. Does this company still have the upside despite any new bad news, etc. This is an unpopular answer, but I need to "trust" that this will happen.

2. I like the companies at the top of the listings.

[MinnGuyInvesting]

ARK is probably the weakest out of the positive skewed assets you picked. The fee is too high for active management in most efficient market of World. Considering the holdings are public why not buy the companies direct?

I thought about that, but the companies change on a regular basis.
I get email notifications daily of what trades they made and I watch what they sell (and buy).
The effort to try to catch profits the same way the ARK team is doing it is more work than it's worth, so I'll pay them to do it versus me trying to copy what they are doing a day later.
Also, I'd sooner be exposed to the 150 in the 5 ARK Funds than me just bet on my favorites from the group.
ARK team SHOULD be more knowledgeable than me on these items.
This is where I have to trust them that they are. If they are, they get my 0.75%.
If it doesn't, then I'll decide from there.

[Anon9001]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Honestly for BTC I expected it to collapse in March. When it didn't I have come to the conclusion there might be something more to this than speculation.

[MinnGuyInvesting]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Well, I was in the center of a lot of those other discussions. Rather than argue in various threads "it's going up!" vs "It's going to crash" over and over with no one giving timerames, I figured I'd just do a transparent thread of what I'm actually doing for an actual given timeframe of 2021.

[APX32]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Some would argue that the entire US stock market is a giant house of cards held together and going up non-stop thanks to low interest rates and never-ending stimulus.

So this big party is not limited to just a few hot stocks and cryptos. On the one hand I enjoy the $$ figures rising on my portfolio each day, but at some point there will be a reality check.

(Since I don’t know when that is, I just stay with my current plan and hope for the best)

[burritoLover]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Some would argue that the entire US stock market is a giant house of cards held together and going up non-stop thanks to low interest rates and never-ending stimulus.

So this big party is not limited to just a few hot stocks and cryptos. On the one hand I enjoy the $$ figures rising on my portfolio each day, but at some point there will be a reality check.

(Since I don’t know when that is, I just stay with my current plan and hope for the best)

Carry some ex-US, maybe some small cap value - maybe that offsets things a bit. If the market crashes, none of us heavy in equities are safe but I would bet the frothy large cap growth stocks will do the biggest face plant. Or maybe this craziness persists for the next 10 years. We will see.

[Nathan Drake]

I appreciate you doing this. Much like indexing was considered a provocative means of investing compared to active management in its infancy, cryptocurrency and disruptive innovation should be explored and understood, even if it is controversial to what we discuss on this site. That open-mindedness will either allow for further support that indexing is right or that maybe there are other scenarios one should consider (based on their goals, risk tolerance, etc). Ethereum for example could have a multitude of uses in the future but I’ll stick to stocks.

Admittedly, I am not a Tesla fan boy and I don’t quite understand how they are the 5th largest company by market cap but I’ll spare that debate for another thread. My question to you – are you concerned with the amount of losses that are shown by the top companies in say, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)? The top 10 holdings have 2 maybe 3 (Baidu and Proto Labs) companies that show at least a brief history of consistently making money. I say maybe 3 because Tesla has yet to prove that they can make money without EV Credits. But even if you factor in Tesla, only 3 companies in the top ten are just recently making money. I understand a growth stock may not reap rewards until it scales but does that give you any concern?

I don’t want to talk you out of this because I want to see how this works (and may even grab some ARK) but curious to get your thoughts on the lack of income generated by the ETF’s underlying companies. Good luck!

Pffft...ok boomer, this is 2021, companies don’t need profits

[orenishi]

I appreciate you doing this. Much like indexing was considered a provocative means of investing compared to active management in its infancy, cryptocurrency and disruptive innovation should be explored and understood, even if it is controversial to what we discuss on this site. That open-mindedness will either allow for further support that indexing is right or that maybe there are other scenarios one should consider (based on their goals, risk tolerance, etc). Ethereum for example could have a multitude of uses in the future but I’ll stick to stocks.

Admittedly, I am not a Tesla fan boy and I don’t quite understand how they are the 5th largest company by market cap but I’ll spare that debate for another thread. My question to you – are you concerned with the amount of losses that are shown by the top companies in say, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)? The top 10 holdings have 2 maybe 3 (Baidu and Proto Labs) companies that show at least a brief history of consistently making money. I say maybe 3 because Tesla has yet to prove that they can make money without EV Credits. But even if you factor in Tesla, only 3 companies in the top ten are just recently making money. I understand a growth stock may not reap rewards until it scales but does that give you any concern?

I don’t want to talk you out of this because I want to see how this works (and may even grab some ARK) but curious to get your thoughts on the lack of income generated by the ETF’s underlying companies. Good luck!

Pffft...ok boomer, this is 2021, companies don’t need profits

LOL I'm probably younger than you!

[Gadget]

I don't really understand your plan. I feel like you should have an AA for all of your sectors.

Something like:
50% index funds
30% ARK
10% other speculative stocks
10% crypto

Then have really large rebalancing bands to protect against volatility maybe? Depends on how much of this is in taxable.

The way your plan is now, it seems like the whole thing is random speculation and market timing. But maybe you just didn't post the details.

[aj76er]

Why no gold?

[Gadget]

Why no gold?

If he's investing in crypto/bitcoin, most people that do think of it as young people's gold. Not saying that's right or wrong, but most people in crypto think gold overlaps with what bitcoin is supposed to be.

[cowbman]

What I dislike about ARK funds are that the Top 10 holdings of each ETF make up about 50% of the holdings and they charge a mutual fund-sized ER at ~ 0.75%. Why not write some rules with your broker on limits for buy/sell and just buy the Top 10 holdings of the ARK fund you are interested in? With $0 trading fees now, I think this would be easy to do. You could probably accomplish this nicely using M1. It's not wort keeping up with VTI or the S&P 500 at the really low ERs, but at closer to 1% ER with only 10 holdings, it's probably worth my time to write some rules for re-balancing.

Do it and share the pie with everyone!

I'd be shocked if no one has done yet (at least to some extent).

[anon_investor]

What I dislike about ARK funds are that the Top 10 holdings of each ETF make up about 50% of the holdings and they charge a mutual fund-sized ER at ~ 0.75%. Why not write some rules with your broker on limits for buy/sell and just buy the Top 10 holdings of the ARK fund you are interested in? With $0 trading fees now, I think this would be easy to do. You could probably accomplish this nicely using M1. It's not wort keeping up with VTI or the S&P 500 at the really low ERs, but at closer to 1% ER with only 10 holdings, it's probably worth my time to write some rules for re-balancing.

Do it and share the pie with everyone!

I'd be shocked if no one has done yet (at least to some extent).

Haha, I was kidding. But I would do your idea before paying a 0.75% expense ratio for a basket of 50 stocks.

[Busdrvr]

What I dislike about ARK funds are that the Top 10 holdings of each ETF make up about 50% of the holdings and they charge a mutual fund-sized ER at ~ 0.75%. Why not write some rules with your broker on limits for buy/sell and just buy the Top 10 holdings of the ARK fund you are interested in? With $0 trading fees now, I think this would be easy to do. You could probably accomplish this nicely using M1. It's not wort keeping up with VTI or the S&P 500 at the really low ERs, but at closer to 1% ER with only 10 holdings, it's probably worth my time to write some rules for re-balancing.

Do it and share the pie with everyone!

I'd be shocked if no one has done yet (at least to some extent).

Haha, I was kidding. But I would do your idea before paying a 0.75% expense ratio for a basket of 50 stocks.

I was just perusing yesterday’s ARK email trade info along with the emails from every trading day and while saving .75 sounds good I already have a full time job.

[anon_investor]

What I dislike about ARK funds are that the Top 10 holdings of each ETF make up about 50% of the holdings and they charge a mutual fund-sized ER at ~ 0.75%. Why not write some rules with your broker on limits for buy/sell and just buy the Top 10 holdings of the ARK fund you are interested in? With $0 trading fees now, I think this would be easy to do. You could probably accomplish this nicely using M1. It's not wort keeping up with VTI or the S&P 500 at the really low ERs, but at closer to 1% ER with only 10 holdings, it's probably worth my time to write some rules for re-balancing.

Do it and share the pie with everyone!

I'd be shocked if no one has done yet (at least to some extent).

Haha, I was kidding. But I would do your idea before paying a 0.75% expense ratio for a basket of 50 stocks.

I was just perusing yesterday’s ARK email trade info along with the emails from every trading day and while saving .75 sounds good I already have a full time job.

I think you can find a financial advisor to take care of all your investing needs for 0.75% .

[MinnGuyInvesting]

What I dislike about ARK funds are that the Top 10 holdings of each ETF make up about 50% of the holdings and they charge a mutual fund-sized ER at ~ 0.75%. Why not write some rules with your broker on limits for buy/sell and just buy the Top 10 holdings of the ARK fund you are interested in? With $0 trading fees now, I think this would be easy to do. You could probably accomplish this nicely using M1. It's not wort keeping up with VTI or the S&P 500 at the really low ERs, but at closer to 1% ER with only 10 holdings, it's probably worth my time to write some rules for re-balancing.

Do it and share the pie with everyone!

I'd be shocked if no one has done yet (at least to some extent).

Several of people on youtube recommending this.

Here are the trades from yesterday you would want to follow.

1 ARKF 01/19/2021 Buy OPEN 683712103 OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC 192,103 0.2200
2 ARKF 01/19/2021 Sell SQ 852234103 SQUARE INC 26,800 0.2500
3 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy TDOC 87918A105 TELADOC HEALTH INC 45,371 0.1000
4 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy BMY 110122108 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 328,990 0.2100
5 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy NVS 66987V109 NOVARTIS AG 62,491 0.0600
6 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy VRTX 92532F100 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC 68,763 0.1500
7 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy EXAS 30063P105 EXACT SCIENCES CORP 107,956 0.1500
8 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy ACCD 00437E102 ACCOLADE INC 89,838 0.0500
9 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy TAK 874060205 TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD 597,000 0.1000
10 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy ONEM 68269G107 1LIFE HEALTHCARE INC 175,100 0.0800
11 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy RHHBY 771195104 ROCHE HOLDING AG 286,020 0.1200
12 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell TWST 90184D100 TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORP 20,547 0.0400
13 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell CRSP H17182108 CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG 61,326 0.1100
14 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell PACB 69404D108 PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA INC 121,424 0.0500
15 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell CSTL 14843C105 CASTLE BIOSCIENCES INC 4,535 0.0000
16 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy DOCU 256163106 DOCUSIGN INC 38,938 0.0400
17 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy TCEHY 88032Q109 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD 208,200 0.0800
18 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy REGN 75886F107 REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC 61,494 0.1500
19 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy SPOT L8681T102 SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY SA 94,419 0.1300
20 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy SNPS 871607107 SYNOPSYS INC 65,045 0.0800
21 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy TXG 88025U109 10X GENOMICS INC 130,479 0.1000
22 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 137,046 0.5100
23 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell CGEN M25722105 COMPUGEN LTD 143,018 0.0100
24 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell NSTG 63009R109 NANOSTRING TECHNOLOGIES INC 39,914 0.0100
25 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell MCRB 81750R102 SERES THERAPEUTICS INC 76,444 0.0100
26 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell ONVO 68620A203 ORGANOVO HOLDINGS INC 51,832 0.0000
27 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell CRSP H17182108 CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG 176,098 0.1600
28 ARKQ 01/19/2021 Buy ESLT M3760D101 ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD 3,819 0.0200
29 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy CRM 79466L302 SALESFORCE.COM INC 87,095 0.3100
30 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy ADBE 00724F101 ADOBE INC 27,853 0.2100
31 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy NFLX 64110L106 NETFLIX INC 48,614 0.4000
32 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy FSLY 31188V100 FASTLY INC 137,400 0.2100
33 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy SKLZ 83067L109 SKILLZ INC 429,074 0.1900
34 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy ADYEY 00783V104 ADYEN NV 35,600 0.0300
35 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell MELI 58733R102 MERCADOLIBRE INC 9,907 0.3100
36 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell ROKU 77543R102 ROKU INC 79,246 0.5500
37 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell SNAP 83304A106 SNAP INC 255,034 0.2100
38 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 14,000 0.1900

[MinnGuyInvesting]

And these.


1 ARKF 01/19/2021 Buy OPEN 683712103 OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC 192,103 0.2200
2 ARKF 01/19/2021 Buy OPEN 683712103 OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC 192,103 0.2200
3 ARKF 01/19/2021 Sell SQ 852234103 SQUARE INC 26,800 0.2500
4 ARKF 01/19/2021 Sell SQ 852234103 SQUARE INC 26,800 0.2500
5 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy TDOC 87918A105 TELADOC HEALTH INC 45,371 0.1000
6 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy BMY 110122108 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 328,990 0.2100
7 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy TAK 874060205 TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD 597,000 0.1000
8 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy ONEM 68269G107 1LIFE HEALTHCARE INC 175,100 0.0800
9 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy RHHBY 771195104 ROCHE HOLDING AG 286,020 0.1200
10 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy EXAS 30063P105 EXACT SCIENCES CORP 107,956 0.1500
11 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy VRTX 92532F100 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC 68,763 0.1500
12 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy NVS 66987V109 NOVARTIS AG 62,491 0.0600
13 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy ACCD 00437E102 ACCOLADE INC 89,838 0.0500
14 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy TDOC 87918A105 TELADOC HEALTH INC 45,371 0.1000
15 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy RHHBY 771195104 ROCHE HOLDING AG 286,020 0.1200
16 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy TAK 874060205 TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD 597,000 0.1000
17 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy ONEM 68269G107 1LIFE HEALTHCARE INC 175,100 0.0800
18 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy ACCD 00437E102 ACCOLADE INC 89,838 0.0500
19 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy EXAS 30063P105 EXACT SCIENCES CORP 107,956 0.1500
20 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy VRTX 92532F100 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC 68,763 0.1500
21 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy NVS 66987V109 NOVARTIS AG 62,491 0.0600
22 ARKG 01/19/2021 Buy BMY 110122108 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 328,990 0.2100
23 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell PACB 69404D108 PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA INC 121,424 0.0500
24 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell TWST 90184D100 TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORP 20,547 0.0400
25 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell TWST 90184D100 TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORP 20,547 0.0400
26 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell CRSP H17182108 CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG 61,326 0.1100
27 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell PACB 69404D108 PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA INC 121,424 0.0500
28 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell CSTL 14843C105 CASTLE BIOSCIENCES INC 4,535 0.0000
29 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell CRSP H17182108 CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG 61,326 0.1100
30 ARKG 01/19/2021 Sell CSTL 14843C105 CASTLE BIOSCIENCES INC 4,535 0.0000
31 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy REGN 75886F107 REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC 61,494 0.1500
32 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy TXG 88025U109 10X GENOMICS INC 130,479 0.1000
33 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy SPOT L8681T102 SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY SA 94,419 0.1300
34 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy REGN 75886F107 REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC 61,494 0.1500
35 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy TCEHY 88032Q109 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD 208,200 0.0800
36 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy DOCU 256163106 DOCUSIGN INC 38,938 0.0400
37 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy SNPS 871607107 SYNOPSYS INC 65,045 0.0800
38 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy SPOT L8681T102 SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY SA 94,419 0.1300
39 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy DOCU 256163106 DOCUSIGN INC 38,938 0.0400
40 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy SNPS 871607107 SYNOPSYS INC 65,045 0.0800
41 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy TCEHY 88032Q109 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD 208,200 0.0800
42 ARKK 01/19/2021 Buy TXG 88025U109 10X GENOMICS INC 130,479 0.1000
43 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell MCRB 81750R102 SERES THERAPEUTICS INC 76,444 0.0100
44 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell MCRB 81750R102 SERES THERAPEUTICS INC 76,444 0.0100
45 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 137,046 0.5100
46 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell CGEN M25722105 COMPUGEN LTD 143,018 0.0100
47 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell CRSP H17182108 CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG 176,098 0.1600
48 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell ONVO 68620A203 ORGANOVO HOLDINGS INC 51,832 0.0000
49 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell CGEN M25722105 COMPUGEN LTD 143,018 0.0100
50 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell NSTG 63009R109 NANOSTRING TECHNOLOGIES INC 39,914 0.0100
51 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell ONVO 68620A203 ORGANOVO HOLDINGS INC 51,832 0.0000
52 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell CRSP H17182108 CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG 176,098 0.1600
53 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell NSTG 63009R109 NANOSTRING TECHNOLOGIES INC 39,914 0.0100
54 ARKK 01/19/2021 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 137,046 0.5100
55 ARKQ 01/19/2021 Buy ESLT M3760D101 ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD 3,819 0.0200
56 ARKQ 01/19/2021 Buy ESLT M3760D101 ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD 3,819 0.0200
57 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy ADBE 00724F101 ADOBE INC 27,853 0.2100
58 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy CRM 79466L302 SALESFORCE.COM INC 87,095 0.3100
59 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy ADYEY 00783V104 ADYEN NV 35,600 0.0300
60 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy SKLZ 83067L109 SKILLZ INC 429,074 0.1900
61 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy FSLY 31188V100 FASTLY INC 137,400 0.2100
62 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy NFLX 64110L106 NETFLIX INC 48,614 0.4000
63 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy CRM 79466L302 SALESFORCE.COM INC 87,095 0.3100
64 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy ADBE 00724F101 ADOBE INC 27,853 0.2100
65 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy NFLX 64110L106 NETFLIX INC 48,614 0.4000
66 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy FSLY 31188V100 FASTLY INC 137,400 0.2100
67 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy ADYEY 00783V104 ADYEN NV 35,600 0.0300
68 ARKW 01/19/2021 Buy SKLZ 83067L109 SKILLZ INC 429,074 0.1900
69 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell SNAP 83304A106 SNAP INC 255,034 0.2100
70 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell ROKU 77543R102 ROKU INC 79,246 0.5500
71 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell MELI 58733R102 MERCADOLIBRE INC 9,907 0.3100
72 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 14,000 0.1900
73 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell MELI 58733R102 MERCADOLIBRE INC 9,907 0.3100
74 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell ROKU 77543R102 ROKU INC 79,246 0.5500
75 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell SNAP 83304A106 SNAP INC 255,034 0.2100
76 ARKW 01/19/2021 Sell TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 14,000 0.1900

[Busdrvr]

It’s a full time job just selling TSLA

[anon_investor]

It’s a full time job just selling TSLA

Haha, imagine if they tried to sell all their TSLA shares at once!

[HomerJ]

Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.

• There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.

• There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.

• There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.

• There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.

If you actually think you can breakdown the risks with accurate percentages, you are extremely likely to fail with this on-going experiment.

You don't appear to know what you don't know.

But you might get lucky.

You're not likely to beat the market with all your individual stock picks which is why we don't try, but some people do, and you might get lucky.

Good luck.

[MinnGuyInvesting]

I think you can find a financial advisor to take care of all your investing needs for 0.75% .

If my math is correct...

Say your portfolio with ARK is $10,000.
Expense ratio of 0.75% = $75?

Portfolio $100,000.
Expense ratio of 0.75% = $750?

Portfolio $500,000.
Expense ratio of 0.75% = $3,750

Portfolio of $1,000,000
Expense ratio of 0.75% = $7,500

Say 50 trades a day.
250 trading days a year.
12,500 total trades to keep up and be a day late on all ARK fund trades?

If I have a $10,000,000 portfolio with ARK, that would cost me $75,000 a year... that's like... $6 a trade.

If my math is right, I'm fine with them doing that for me and having it happen when they make the trades, not a day later when I'd be doing it.

[MinnGuyInvesting]

Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.

• There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.

• There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.

• There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.

• There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.

If you actually think you can breakdown the risks with accurate percentages, you are extremely likely to fail with this on-going experiment.

You don't appear to know what you don't know.

But you might get lucky.

You're not likely to beat the market with all your individual stock picks which is why we don't try, but some people do, and you might get lucky.

Good luck.

Thanks for your feedback.
Feel free to share your breakdown for each for 2021 returns from your perspective since it appears to be different than mine. I can assess better assess my risk then and I can better place my future contributions differently.

• There is a ____% chance of 100% loss.

• There is a ____% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.

• There is a ____% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.

• There is a ____% chance crypto increases substantially.

By the way, your the 2nd person in this thread to essentially tell me that, but the other person hasn't provided their risk assessment per the lines above.

[HomerJ]

Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.

• There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.

• There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.

• There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.

• There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.

If you actually think you can breakdown the risks with accurate percentages, you are extremely likely to fail with this on-going experiment.

You don't appear to know what you don't know.

But you might get lucky.

You're not likely to beat the market with all your individual stock picks which is why we don't try, but some people do, and you might get lucky.

Good luck.

Thanks for your feedback.
Feel free to share your breakdown for each for 2021 returns from your perspective since it appears to be different than mine. I can assess better assess my risk then and I can better place my future contributions differently.

• There is a ____% chance of 100% loss.

• There is a ____% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.

• There is a ____% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.

• There is a ____% chance crypto increases substantially.

By the way, your the 2nd person in this thread to essentially tell me that, but the other person hasn't provided their risk assessment per the lines above.

No one knows. You don't know. I don't know.

I know that I don't know, and I'm not making decisions based on made-up numbers.

You don't know that you don't know, and you are making decisions based on made-up numbers.

That may actually work out. Better to be lucky than good, right?

Good luck!

[MinnGuyInvesting]

No one knows. You don't know. I don't know.

I know that I don't know, and I'm not making decisions based on made-up numbers.

You don't know that you don't know, and you are making decisions based on made-up numbers.

That may actually work out. Better to be lucky than good, right?

Good luck!

Innovation would cease if we waited until everyone KNOWS everything.

My personal risk profile is probably vastly different than yours.
In the job I work in, we can't wait for all the answers to be 100% clear.
90% of my job is pushing forward when decisions are not clear.

[HomerJ]

No one knows. You don't know. I don't know.

I know that I don't know, and I'm not making decisions based on made-up numbers.

You don't know that you don't know, and you are making decisions based on made-up numbers.

That may actually work out. Better to be lucky than good, right?

Good luck!

Innovation would cease if we waited until everyone KNOWS everything.

My personal risk profile is probably vastly different than yours.
In the job I work in, we can't wait for all the answers to be 100% clear.
90% of my job is pushing forward when decisions are not clear.

I'm not saying you have an 80% idea of what will happen, and you should wait until you know 100% for sure.

I'm saying you don't know enough to make any kind of predictions on percentages. You're just guessing. There are too many variables, and some of the variables you don't even know about. Human EMOTION is one of the variables.

Economics and investing isn't a hard science. Nobody knows enough to make accurate 1 year predictions. Not even the smartest PhDs and Nobel prize winners. And not me. And not you.

Not without some luck involved. But maybe you'll be lucky.

So good luck!

(About your personal risk profile, I'm not telling you to not invest in crypto or individual stocks - although I don't think those are good ideas - I'm just saying your percentages for what will happen to crypto are purely made-up numbers, and you need to recognize that before you start making investing decisions based on made-up numbers)

[Prahasaurus]

Good luck, OP!

As many know, I’m heavily invested in crypto. But I have to be honest, it scares the hell out of me at times, and my plan is to move back to a super boring Bogleheads type index fund as soon as I’m confident crypto valuations are starting to get a bit frothy.

The only reason I’m heavily invested in crypto now, which I admit goes against core Bogleheads’ principles, is that I’m extremely confident markets are still incredibly inefficient regarding crypto. “Nobody knows” is fine when we have perfect information, but I don’t believe that is the case with crypto. However, that will change over time, and so this amazing window of opportunity will shut. And yes, at times we will get ahead of ourselves and there will be brutal corrections. It’s tricky, another reason Bogleheads’ type investing is superior, much less stress! On the other hand, it’s also exhilarating, doing research and placing educated bets, and seeing those pay off as the market catches up. But I have no illusions I can do this with anything other than crypto, since I know this space very well.

When I start to believe valuations have gone too high in crypto, I will start to take money off the table put it in the most boring Bogleheads index fund I can find. I’m sure I’ll leave some % in crypto, perhaps up to 40-50% (although more like 20-30%), because I’m highly confident in this space long term, and also like the fixed income possibilities. But I won’t be doing this with anything else (e.g. buying TSLA or “emerging markets” or whatever), because I’m not qualified to do it, the only edge I have is simply that most people with money have not (yet) grasped what is happening in crypto. Or (even better for me), think they are experts after having read a few articles, without ever really diving deep into this space, never having used some of these protocols, etc. That’s it, that’s my edge, I’m not under any delusions I can repeat this with anything else. And of course there are no 100% guarantees I’m right, either. You can get it “all in” with by far the best hand, and still lose.

[Noobvestor]

This place is becoming too much like a echo-chamber IMO. In my culture shares are avoided because they are seen as gambling. You are all gambling on the ERP being positive. There is no guarantee that the ERP will be positive. You are also gambling on US stocks not suffering a Japan type lost decades. The OP's portfolio is rational for a person who wants positive skewness. Although positive skewness is desirable by everyone so the expected returns should be lower.

The 'you' here must be referring to US-only investors, because I'm certainly not gambling on any one country

[dru808]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Is it inevitable?

[burritoLover]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Is it inevitable?

I think so but of course no one knows. I don’t think bitcoin or TSLA will end up worthless, but they will see massive corrections. It will probably be a giant sawtooth pattern on the way down as the dedicated just don’t want to give up on it.

[HomerJ]

And of course there are no 100% guarantees I’m right, either. You can get it “all in” with by far the best hand, and still lose.

Which is why you should never bet your entire bankroll in poker...

[anon_investor]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Is it inevitable?

I think so but of course no one knows. I don’t think bitcoin or TSLA will end up worthless, but they will see massive corrections. It will probably be a giant sawtooth pattern on the way down as the dedicated just don’t want to give up on it.

TSLA could very well be like Amazon, which saw several major drops (e.g. dot-com crash and the GFC). For those earler pre-2000 investors, IF they managed to hold on they had amazing returns. But nobody knows nothing...

I am still not convinced that the active managers for the ARK funds have not just been lucky. I have a friend who bought a bunch of Apple in March which has done very well, is she an investing genius or just lucky? It is always better to be lucky than good, but luck doesn't last forever...

Good luck to the OP, as I mentioned before I hope the OP continues to post, even if the portfolio does not do well.

[burritoLover]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Is it inevitable?

I think so but of course no one knows. I don’t think bitcoin or TSLA will end up worthless, but they will see massive corrections. It will probably be a giant sawtooth pattern on the way down as the dedicated just don’t want to give up on it.

TSLA could very well be like Amazon, which saw several major drops (e.g. dot-com crash and the GFC). For those earler pre-2000 investors, IF they managed to hold on they had amazing returns. But nobody knows nothing...

Sure and I may pick up some TSLA during the next crash. It does still matter what you buy it at though - a concept lost on a lot of young investors who think the stock market is just an ATM machine that pays out no matter what if the company does well.

[anon_investor]

Thank you all bitcoiners, ARKers, and TSLA-ers - this will provide immense entertainment value to me when this house of cards inevitably collapses. Even sweeter if you are confident now that this will go on forever.

Is it inevitable?

I think so but of course no one knows. I don’t think bitcoin or TSLA will end up worthless, but they will see massive corrections. It will probably be a giant sawtooth pattern on the way down as the dedicated just don’t want to give up on it.

TSLA could very well be like Amazon, which saw several major drops (e.g. dot-com crash and the GFC). For those earler pre-2000 investors, IF they managed to hold on they had amazing returns. But nobody knows nothing...

Sure and I may pick up some TSLA during the next crash. It does still matter what you buy it at though - a concept lost on a lot of young investors who think the stock market is just an ATM machine that pays out no matter what if the company does well.

I agree with that. But hey those young investors are right... until they're wrong. The problem is they usually never cash out...

[burritoLover]

Is it inevitable?

I think so but of course no one knows. I don’t think bitcoin or TSLA will end up worthless, but they will see massive corrections. It will probably be a giant sawtooth pattern on the way down as the dedicated just don’t want to give up on it.

TSLA could very well be like Amazon, which saw several major drops (e.g. dot-com crash and the GFC). For those earler pre-2000 investors, IF they managed to hold on they had amazing returns. But nobody knows nothing...

Sure and I may pick up some TSLA during the next crash. It does still matter what you buy it at though - a concept lost on a lot of young investors who think the stock market is just an ATM machine that pays out no matter what if the company does well.

I agree with that. But hey those young investors are right... until they're wrong. The problem is they usually never cash out...

Yep - the institutional/professional investors will get out first and the Robinhooders will be left holding the bag. let's hope not too many are buying on margin.

[Anon9001]

I would warn you about ARK the fund has been getting lot of inflows this year. Active management does not do well with scalability where the more money the strategy has the less alpha the strategy produces. If you want to get keep getting higher returns than Index use UPRO/SSO ETF or Index Futures and Options (if you dislike volatility decay).

[Kompass]

I would warn you about ARK the fund has been getting lot of inflows this year. Active management does not do well with scalability where the more money the strategy has the less alpha the strategy produces. If you want to get keep getting higher returns than Index use UPRO/SSO ETF or Index Futures and Options (if you dislike volatility decay).

This morning Barron’s had an article on the subject

ARK ETFs Might Be Too Popular for Their Own Good

https://apple.news/A09p_9f6TT2adx7BNKHemYQ

* I hope the link works, it’s from my Apple newsfeed

[james22]

...the only edge I have is simply that most people with money have not (yet) grasped what is happening in crypto. Or (even better for me), think they are experts after having read a few articles, without ever really diving deep into this space, never having used some of these protocols, etc. That’s it, that’s my edge, I’m not under any delusions I can repeat this with anything else.

Do you have any idea how many technically superior products have failed in the market place?

Understanding the space gives you very little edge when that accounts for only a fraction of what determines success.

Believing you have an edge is dangerous.

[acegolfer]

FYI, you can use =GOOGLEFINANCE( ) to get past and present BTC prices. No need to manually update values.

[Prahasaurus]

...the only edge I have is simply that most people with money have not (yet) grasped what is happening in crypto. Or (even better for me), think they are experts after having read a few articles, without ever really diving deep into this space, never having used some of these protocols, etc. That’s it, that’s my edge, I’m not under any delusions I can repeat this with anything else.

Do you have any idea how many technically superior products have failed in the market place?

Understanding the space gives you very little edge when that accounts for only a fraction of what determines success.

Believing you have an edge is dangerous.

Ok, I’ll play along, in addition to “understanding the space” (which is only a “fraction”), what else determines success?

[Anon9001]

I apologize for the previous comment. I had wasted some time posting in Reddit and I discovered there are much worse echo-chambers than this site. Reddit is terrible in that it sorts posts by how much the herd likes the comment and not by post date and if you have very little internet points you have to wait long time to comment. Going back to this I would recommend OP if you want to get higher returns than Index use Futures/Options or UPRO/SSO instead of ARK due to the amount of money ARK is getting now.

[dixdak]

I apologize for the previous comment. I had wasted some time posting in Reddit and I discovered there are much worse echo-chambers than this site. Reddit is terrible in that it sorts posts by how much the herd likes the comment and not by post date and if you have very little internet points you have to wait long time to comment. Going back to this I would recommend OP if you want to get higher returns than Index use Futures/Options or UPRO/SSO instead of ARK

High praise, indeed, for a forum you recently dismissed as a bunch of old Western male Luddites anchored in 20th century ideas. Welcome back! Would you recommend buying futures/options on margin to get even higher returns?

[Anon9001]

I do tend to get emotional when talking about cryptos here so I apologize for whatever offense I caused by describing the primary demographic of this site. The OP himself wants to gamble on ARK and I suggested a better way to get higher returns.

[danbdzs]

Op,

Thank you for your transparency. I want to follow up during the year out of curiosity. I hope you'll continue updating in spite of strong criticism (which is naturally to be expected from a different consensus as we have here) and in spite of the strategy performing poorly if it does.

Dan

[james22]

...the only edge I have is simply that most people with money have not (yet) grasped what is happening in crypto. Or (even better for me), think they are experts after having read a few articles, without ever really diving deep into this space, never having used some of these protocols, etc. That’s it, that’s my edge, I’m not under any delusions I can repeat this with anything else.

Do you have any idea how many technically superior products have failed in the market place?

Understanding the space gives you very little edge when that accounts for only a fraction of what determines success.

Believing you have an edge is dangerous.

Ok, I’ll play along, in addition to “understanding the space” (which is only a “fraction”), what else determines success?

You don't believe politics might play a part in determining crypto success (outlawing, regulating)? What understanding do you have of that?

Market behavior (how will crypto react to a market crash)? What's your edge there?

Investor sentiment (fickle as it is)? Are you a preference expert?

Understanding bitcoin's advantages alone does not give you an edge:

Since bitcoin is technologically superior to current fiat systems, not beholden to the whims of politicians and central bankers, provides privacy to users, and provides a secure record of transactions, it is inevitable that bitcoin will sweep aside the current financial system and claim its rightful role leading the global financial system.

Reality, however, is more complicated than that neat and simple narrative.

The problem is that technological “superiority,” the definition of which is ambiguous under the best of circumstances, has a poor track record of predicting the success or failure of a product.

...

It would be imprudent, and wholly unjustified based on any precedent, to assume that the first mainstream application (bitcoin) of a new technology platform (blockchain) is destined to be its most successful. It is too early to say what, if any, blockchain application will be adopted for day-to-day transactions.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-market ... periority/

[drumboy256]

Good on you OP. Interesting study and look forward to seeing the results!

[backofbeyond]

OP,

Thanks for making this thread. I like people that are open minded and willing to explore.

My portfolio isn't that much different than yours. I practice something called: Core & Explore. Approx 60% of my portfolio is in large indexes via my TSP (Federal Civil Servant 401). The other 40% I've divvied up between concentrated ETFs & individual stocks (including Crypto Miner stock). I purchased the vast majority of this part in March/April 2020. The results have been, well...outstanding. Well over 100%. I made 3 times my annual salary in the past year in my portfolio.

Like you, I have a large holdings in Apple, Google, Amazon...I also hold large amounts in Microsoft and Nvidia. And a fair amount in Taiwan Semiconductors and ETFs: EWY (Korea) & EWT (Taiwan). My Crypto Miners (RIOT, HVBTF, DMGGF, MARA) started out as only 1/2 of 1%, but zoomed up to 8% by the first week in Jan 2021, now back down to about 5%.

BH portfolios are based on time tested strategies that do work...most of the time. But there are times when it doesn't do as good, times like March 2020 when the market plummeted. I held my TSP holdings, didn't sell, continued to dollar cost average in. But I also pounced on the Fear. When I saw that Wendy's had lost 70%, I knew this was a rare event, so I backed up the truck and piled into high quality stocks that were beaten down. I also concentrated on technology stocks in: 5G, ecommerce (ie. Amazon), web security, AI and Robotics. Not unlike the ARK portfolio.

Finally, I sell any holding that has lost 20% (except my Crypto Miners that can do that almost daily). I for one, will be watching your posting with great interest and wish you great success!

[Prahasaurus]

...the only edge I have is simply that most people with money have not (yet) grasped what is happening in crypto. Or (even better for me), think they are experts after having read a few articles, without ever really diving deep into this space, never having used some of these protocols, etc. That’s it, that’s my edge, I’m not under any delusions I can repeat this with anything else.

Do you have any idea how many technically superior products have failed in the market place?

Understanding the space gives you very little edge when that accounts for only a fraction of what determines success.

Believing you have an edge is dangerous.

Ok, I’ll play along, in addition to “understanding the space” (which is only a “fraction”), what else determines success?

You don't believe politics might play a part in determining crypto success (outlawing, regulating)? What understanding do you have of that?

Market behavior (how will crypto react to a market crash)? What's your edge there?

Investor sentiment (fickle as it is)? Are you a preference expert?

Understanding bitcoin's advantages alone does not give you an edge:

Since bitcoin is technologically superior to current fiat systems, not beholden to the whims of politicians and central bankers, provides privacy to users, and provides a secure record of transactions, it is inevitable that bitcoin will sweep aside the current financial system and claim its rightful role leading the global financial system.

Reality, however, is more complicated than that neat and simple narrative.

The problem is that technological “superiority,” the definition of which is ambiguous under the best of circumstances, has a poor track record of predicting the success or failure of a product.

...

It would be imprudent, and wholly unjustified based on any precedent, to assume that the first mainstream application (bitcoin) of a new technology platform (blockchain) is destined to be its most successful. It is too early to say what, if any, blockchain application will be adopted for day-to-day transactions.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-market ... periority/

I only need an edge. I don’t need to know or pretend to know things that are unknowable, eg “investor sentiment,” etc. I didn’t say I was omniscient.

[james22]

...the only edge I have is simply that most people with money have not (yet) grasped what is happening in crypto. Or (even better for me), think they are experts after having read a few articles, without ever really diving deep into this space, never having used some of these protocols, etc. That’s it, that’s my edge, I’m not under any delusions I can repeat this with anything else.

Do you have any idea how many technically superior products have failed in the market place?

Understanding the space gives you very little edge when that accounts for only a fraction of what determines success.

Believing you have an edge is dangerous.

Ok, I’ll play along, in addition to “understanding the space” (which is only a “fraction”), what else determines success?

You don't believe politics might play a part in determining crypto success (outlawing, regulating)? What understanding do you have of that?

Market behavior (how will crypto react to a market crash)? What's your edge there?

Investor sentiment (fickle as it is)? Are you a preference expert?

Understanding bitcoin's advantages alone does not give you an edge:

Since bitcoin is technologically superior to current fiat systems, not beholden to the whims of politicians and central bankers, provides privacy to users, and provides a secure record of transactions, it is inevitable that bitcoin will sweep aside the current financial system and claim its rightful role leading the global financial system.

Reality, however, is more complicated than that neat and simple narrative.

The problem is that technological “superiority,” the definition of which is ambiguous under the best of circumstances, has a poor track record of predicting the success or failure of a product.

...

It would be imprudent, and wholly unjustified based on any precedent, to assume that the first mainstream application (bitcoin) of a new technology platform (blockchain) is destined to be its most successful. It is too early to say what, if any, blockchain application will be adopted for day-to-day transactions.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-market ... periority/

I only need an edge. I don’t need to know or pretend to know things that are unknowable, eg “investor sentiment,” etc. I didn’t say I was omniscient.

Do you think the savvy who really understood the advantages of Betamax, Segways, iOS, TiVo, and QR codes, for example, had an edge? Or was that belief actually dangerous because they didn't understand they didn't really?

You may indeed have an edge, but it's probably not the one you believe it is:

“My boy,” said the Great Winfield over the phone. “Our trouble is that we are too old for this market. The best players in this kind of a market have not passed their twenty-ninth birthdays. Come on over and I will show you my solution.” ...

"My solution to the current market,” the Great Winfield said. “Kids. This is a kids’ market." ...

“The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money they feel invincible,” said the Great Winfield. “Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes us. All of these kids but one will be broke, and that one will be the multi-millionaire, the Arthur Rock of the new generation. There is always one, and we will find him."

https://books.google.com/books?id=ntzlB ... .”&f=false