Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

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MinnGuyInvesting
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Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

EDIT:
This is a non-Boglehead theory being discussed where I discuss ARK funds and cryptocurrencies including bitcoin.
If you would not like to read or discuss these items, please understand this at this point and view other threads instead.



I'm been a longtime Broad index investor. In 2020 I started expanding into other areas.
I've been debating the merits of it with several people. Rather than dive in all kinds of threads, I'll use this thread to provide updates on my portfolio / strategy through the year 2021. I'll update monthly with performance.

How I got here:
Had all broad index portfolio.
In 2020 I sold some real estate. I put some into VTI. I doubled down on the VTI giants, Apple, Google, and Amazon. I felt over the next few years, these are companies that will be around and successful 5-10 years from now. I felt they will out produce the market.

I was looking for other stocks that could out-perform the index. These are the reasons why:
  • 1. Concern with the money being created via stimulus packages, that a 9% return on a broad index fund won't "feel like" a real 9% return if we have 9% inflation on costs on goods like real estate.
  • Concern about over indexing. This topic has been discussed before. I'm not 100% sure it's not a risk as more and people broad-index. Many 401k's provide an S&P500 option, but not a total market. To hedge, I wanted to try stronger allocate my money in companies outside the S&P 500 companies.
  • Seek out my other own companies who could out-perform, who were not S&P500 companies
After investing in AAPL, GOOGL, and AMZN, I soon came to a loss that me finding a couple companies was going to be a crapshoot. I then started looking at select ETF's that could maybe accomplish this task. When I started looking at other ETF's, I was seeing "Large, Medium, Small-cap, or industry flavored." Eventually I opted to go with ARK-G. I was seeking biotechnology companies (it's something I know from my college education), but I didn't want to make specific bets. So in July I went with ARKG.

EDIT: My current ARK Holdings (36% of portfolio) are across all 5 ARK funds. ARKG:40%, ARKQ, ARKK, ARKF, ARKW each roughly 15%.

I then also spent time doing my own stock picks along with a friend. I hold very small stakes in 15 random stocks based on a friends tip or my own screening that combined make up about 3%. Nikola was one (have since sold), but Tesla was another. Tesla grew (and I further invested) so it's now more than 1% of my portfolio.

I still hold some real estate but won't track / report on that.[/color]

Crypto
Continuing to search for an option that could hold value in the face of possibility of the declining dollar, I started looking into cryptocurrency. Late in 2020 I bought my first BTC and ETH.

Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 25% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
I broke this out into more detail, but in my risk/reward matrix, this to me made it a reasonable bet to invest in knowing I can hold it for at least a year, and possibly longer if I feel it's advantageous to in the future.

Tracking
End of month I'll update this thread with the returns so far, understanding well that in November, everything might go to hell. I'll add commentary at that time if I changed my approach on anything.

I'll use Dec 31/Jan 1 starting prices for:
VTI
QQQ
SPY
Aapl
Googl
AMZN
TSLA
BTC
ETH

If I have a substantial gain or loss on any "play stocks", I'll call that out separately. I will be adding positions to my portfolio throughout the year (401k plan and other purchases) which may change my allocation, but for this threads tracking purposes, I'll report on this as my allocation for the year.

Index ETF's 41%
ARK Funds 36%
AAPL 4%
TSLA 3%
GOOGL 1%
AMZN 1%
Other individual stocks 3%
Bitcoin / ETH 4%


Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.


[Formatting edited by moderator oldcomputerguy]
Last edited by MinnGuyInvesting on Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:30 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
Nathan Drake
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

Sounds like a good plan but could be even better

Have you considered employing this person’s methods? He’s done really well in the stock market and his simple advice is to throw everything into your high conviction stocks and also uses margin and options trading.

https://youtu.be/cpVOLWL8VX8

*sarcasm, in case this wasn’t clear....
Last edited by Nathan Drake on Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Anon9001 »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm
This is mainly a preference for Positive Skewness I assume. Comparing this with VT (Click Metrics tab in the Below table)the skewness is positive compared to negative skew of VT. Funny thing is the Kurtosis is also lower meaning less fat-tails.
Last edited by Anon9001 on Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by TheTimeLord »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:19 pm Sounds like a good plan but could be even better

Have you considered employing this person’s methods? He’s done really well in the stock market and his simple advice is to throw everything into your high conviction stocks

https://youtu.be/cpVOLWL8VX8
Why did you post this?
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:24 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:19 pm Sounds like a good plan but could be even better

Have you considered employing this person’s methods? He’s done really well in the stock market and his simple advice is to throw everything into your high conviction stocks

https://youtu.be/cpVOLWL8VX8
Why did you post this?
I was being sarcastic, but if he wants to gamble then maybe he could learn from some of the best gamblers
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Anon9001 »

This place is becoming too much like a echo-chamber IMO. In my culture shares are avoided because they are seen as gambling. You are all gambling on the ERP being positive. There is no guarantee that the ERP will be positive. You are also gambling on US stocks not suffering a Japan type lost decades. The OP's portfolio is rational for a person who wants positive skewness. Although positive skewness is desirable by everyone so the expected returns should be lower.
Last edited by Anon9001 on Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by burritoLover »

Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:40 pm Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
I think the OP's portfolio is too conservative for the wallstreetbets Reddit :wink: .

But seriously, recent history is fooling new investors into thinking gambling is easy...

Personally, with my non-BH portfolio, I just stick with some low cost ETFs like VGT or VUG. My personal return has been incredible, but pretty much anything purchased in March 2020 has probably done well...
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

Anon9001 wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:34 pm This place is becoming too much like a echo-chamber IMO. In my culture shares are avoided because they are seen as gambling. You are all gambling on the ERP being positive. There is no guarantee that the ERP will be positive. You are also gambling on US stocks not suffering a Japan type lost decades. The OP's portfolio is rational for a person who wants positive skewness and less Excess Kurtosis than Index Portfolio.
By making highly concentrated sector bets, you are increasing kurtosis, not decreasing it
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Anon9001 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:55 pm
Looking at Portfolio Visualizer seems to not be the case. I am very confused actually. But still this would be very rational allocation for a person who wants positive skewness.
Last edited by Anon9001 on Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by diabelli »

What's the exit point from all of this stuff (BTC, ETH, big tech stocks, ARK funds etc).

I also think it's likely that it all keeps appreciating in the short term, but what gets me is knowing when to get out. Unlike with indexing, in which the point is to stay in essentially forever, when it comes to individual equities or active tech funds I exert way too much energy on trying to decide when to get out.

For example I've made 30% on what I put into ARKK about 5 months ago.
I have no idea when to get out.
I'm leaning towards NOW or perhaps put a stop order for 10% below its current price.

At least OP has about half of portfolio in broad indexes
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by fingoals »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm ...
Crypto
Continuing to search for an option that could hold value in the face of possibility of the declining dollar, I started looking into cryptocurrency. Late in 2020 I bought my first BTC and ETH.

Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
I broke this out into more detail, but in my risk/reward matrix, this to me made it a reasonable bet to invest in knowing I can hold it for at least a year, and possibly longer if I feel it's advantageous to in the future.
...
Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.
Where do your probability numbers for the cryptoassets risk/reward matrix come from? If those are your guesstimates, what is the relevant rationale?

Also, I'm curious about your BTC/ETH ratio? I'm seeing various opinions and suggestions on that: from overweighting BTC to 50/50 to overweighting ETH.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Anon9001 »

ARK,BTC,ETH,TSLA will probably keep out-performing if Bogleheads track record on New Technologies continues. I myself am tempted to buy this myself due to how negative the opinion is towards this but I don't want to deal with the hassle of reporting foreign assets to local Government. At least I have BTC and ETH.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

Anon9001 wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:23 pm ARK,BTC,ETH,TSLA will probably keep out-performing if Bogleheads track record on New Technologies continues. I myself am tempted to buy this myself due to how negative the opinion is towards this but I don't want to deal with the hassle of reporting foreign assets to local Government. At least I have BTC and ETH.
Bogleheads are not anti-tech; bogleheads are against active management and making highly concentrated bets that creates idiosyncratic risk. History shows us that there is a tendency to overpay for growth when there is less certainty about forward projections.

There are plenty of tech companies represented in a simple bogleheads portfolio.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:40 pm Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
I was participating in numerous ARK / Bitcoin threads.
Figured rather than debate, I would do a year long thread where my position is clear. This will keep me from commenting in the other threads, and I'll only bump this on questions / comments, or on monthly tracking updates.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Pandemic Bangs »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm
Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
I'm sure you will get good advice here, and have already.

I can not wrap my ahead around how you came up with these numbers. This seems incredibly granular for something that is not knowable and is dependent upon national and even global policy, etc.

We argue over whether Monte Carlo simulations using the universe of broad investment returns are even worth anything.

If you want to gamble and know the risks, you should gamble. But unlike in casino gambling where the risks are knowable, I fear you do not have any idea about the actual risks here. And this false precision will lead you to incorrect "conclusions."
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

diabelli wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:19 pm What's the exit point from all of this stuff (BTC, ETH, big tech stocks, ARK funds etc).

I also think it's likely that it all keeps appreciating in the short term, but what gets me is knowing when to get out. Unlike with indexing, in which the point is to stay in essentially forever, when it comes to individual equities or active tech funds I exert way too much energy on trying to decide when to get out.

For example I've made 30% on what I put into ARKK about 5 months ago.
I have no idea when to get out.
I'm leaning towards NOW or perhaps put a stop order for 10% below its current price.

At least OP has about half of portfolio in broad indexes
I'm a long-term investor. So I'll hold all of these at least a year, then adjust accordingly based on what market looks like after I've held each "trade" at least a year.

TSLA is the obvious choice where it would make sense for me to sell some at this point, but AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA are all long term holds for probably 10-15 years.

My allocation in ARK funds may roll back to a whole index after this year, depending on performance during the year as well as performance in other assets.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:43 pm
diabelli wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:19 pm What's the exit point from all of this stuff (BTC, ETH, big tech stocks, ARK funds etc).

I also think it's likely that it all keeps appreciating in the short term, but what gets me is knowing when to get out. Unlike with indexing, in which the point is to stay in essentially forever, when it comes to individual equities or active tech funds I exert way too much energy on trying to decide when to get out.

For example I've made 30% on what I put into ARKK about 5 months ago.
I have no idea when to get out.
I'm leaning towards NOW or perhaps put a stop order for 10% below its current price.

At least OP has about half of portfolio in broad indexes
I'm a long-term investor. So I'll hold all of these at least a year, then adjust accordingly based on what market looks like after I've held each "trade" at least a year.

TSLA is the obvious choice where it would make sense for me to sell some at this point, but AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA are all long term holds for probably 10-15 years.

My allocation in ARK funds may roll back to a whole index after this year, depending on performance during the year as well as performance in other assets.
One year really isn’t a long enough horizon for any strategy, just look at real investor returns for any hot fund manager...they are way less because they don’t stay the course

If you truly believe in Ark’s funds you will need to hold for 5-10+ Years

I can do that with index funds that own the whole market. I couldn’t stomach that for actively managed sector funds
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

fingoals wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:20 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm ...
Crypto
Continuing to search for an option that could hold value in the face of possibility of the declining dollar, I started looking into cryptocurrency. Late in 2020 I bought my first BTC and ETH.

Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
I broke this out into more detail, but in my risk/reward matrix, this to me made it a reasonable bet to invest in knowing I can hold it for at least a year, and possibly longer if I feel it's advantageous to in the future.
...
Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.
Where do your probability numbers for the cryptoassets risk/reward matrix come from? If those are your guesstimates, what is the relevant rationale?

Also, I'm curious about your BTC/ETH ratio? I'm seeing various opinions and suggestions on that: from overweighting BTC to 50/50 to overweighting ETH.
My BTC to ETH was about 90% BTC, 10% ETH.

Regarding rationale on crypto, it's one very few options I see where I could in theory make an exponential return.
People whose opinion I value seem to be betting on it, so I am as well. But for an opportunity at a low chance at a very high return, with limited down side (I really believe worst case is 50% loss in a year, yet I'll keep holding), this seems like a safe bet.

I'm able to hold this for 5-10 years if I feel the need to eventually get to a "break even", and with the high volatility, I would think I would recover from a 50% drop within that timeframe.

Based on my assumptions, of the possible outcomes, I come up with an "averaged" likelihood of returns end of 2021 of 18%.
Many others would disagree with this this however because they would put 0% likelihood on my most optimistic returns.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:40 pm Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
+1. Why would somebody post a "non-Boglehead portfolio" on the Bogleheads forum?

It's like going to a vegan forum and posting about steak. Are there no better places to get input on steak?
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by gonefishing01 »

Out of curiosity, what kind of portfolio size are we talking about here? Do you have exit or rebalancing strategies for this stuff in case something grows out of control?

I bought some crypto a while back as a lottery ticket and it had astronomical growth last year but still < 1% of my portfolio. If it ever grows beyond 4-5% I’ll start to sell it down. No plans to buy any more.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Pandemic Bangs wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:40 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm
Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
I'm sure you will get good advice here, and have already.

I can not wrap my ahead around how you came up with these numbers. This seems incredibly granular for something that is not knowable and is dependent upon national and even global policy, etc.

We argue over whether Monte Carlo simulations using the universe of broad investment returns are even worth anything.

If you want to gamble and know the risks, you should gamble. But unlike in casino gambling where the risks are knowable, I fear you do not have any idea about the actual risks here. And this false precision will lead you to incorrect "conclusions."
Feel free to share what you feel the % chance for each is.
I like hearing opinions.

A lot of people can tell me I don't have any idea on potential risks, and that's fine. A lot of people have thrown out various risks, and they all sound significant and dangerous, but I may disagree with the likelihood of it happening.

If you are saying I have a 95% chance of losing 100%, I certainly want to know why.
If you are saying I have a 30% chance of losing half vs 25% of losing half, I'm not sure if it's that significant for 5% of my portfolio to change my mind.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:48 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:43 pm

I'm a long-term investor. So I'll hold all of these at least a year, then adjust accordingly based on what market looks like after I've held each "trade" at least a year.

TSLA is the obvious choice where it would make sense for me to sell some at this point, but AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA are all long term holds for probably 10-15 years.

My allocation in ARK funds may roll back to a whole index after this year, depending on performance during the year as well as performance in other assets.
One year really isn’t a long enough horizon for any strategy, just look at real investor returns for any hot fund manager...they are way less because they don’t stay the course

If you truly believe in Ark’s funds you will need to hold for 5-10+ Years

I can do that with index funds that own the whole market. I couldn’t stomach that for actively managed sector funds
This is bad advice.
ARK is a tool that is out there for investing. If management should change, fee structure change, technologies evolve, it would be bad advice to not review as these changes happen. For this study I'm holding throughout the year and reassessing based on performance and goals.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Pandemic Bangs »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:01 pm
Feel free to share what you feel the % chance for each is.
I like hearing opinions.

A lot of people can tell me I don't have any idea on potential risks, and that's fine. A lot of people have thrown out various risks, and they all sound significant and dangerous, but I may disagree with the likelihood of it happening.

If you are saying I have a 95% chance of losing 100%, I certainly want to know why.
If you are saying I have a 30% chance of losing half vs 25% of losing half, I'm not sure if it's that significant for 5% of my portfolio to change my mind.
I don't have an opinion because it doesn't matter -- it is absolutely not actionable. Even if every BH weighed in and you could create an "average" risk matrix, it is meaningless since these are opinions based on the unknowable.

I am agnostic toward BTC but I recognize that it could continue to take off. I have < 10% of my assets in BTC (eight dollars!).

I am pushing back against your turning this into a science. I don't mean that you don't know the risks -- I'm sure you do. I mean that no one can accurately incorporate those risks into actionable modeling. You could counter that clearly a few big banks have. But I doubt that was risk modeling, apart from estimating how much they could safely lose with near-zero consequences.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by bogledogle »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:54 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:40 pm Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
+1. Why would somebody post a "non-Boglehead portfolio" on the Bogleheads forum?

It's like going to a vegan forum and posting about steak. Are there no better places to get input on steak?
Because just being Vegan is not good enough. You need to talk about how awesome being vegan is and how veganism cured all the problems you have and reasons why other people are blind to that fact, that their minds are not open to new foods that are clearly awesome and will change everyone's life if you just tried it out. You just don't know it yet, if you tried my awesome vegan diet, you would know for sure - obviously :D

/sarcasm

On a serious note, I think people post stuff like this because they are fearful of their strategy and they. want to hear where they are wrong. Or perhaps just to start an argument. There is nothing better to do now that most of us are stuck at home and can't go outside.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by runninginvestor »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:01 pm
Pandemic Bangs wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:40 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm
Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
Feel free to share what you feel the % chance for each is.
I like hearing opinions.
Just curious, shouldn't your probability space add up to 100%?
Right now it's a (2%+25%+30%+48%=) 105% chance that one of your scenarios will occur.
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

This forum is for investing theory and I'm being transparent in mine.

Let's let this thread die now for a while until it's time for an update.
Maybe I'll just do it quarterly instead of monthly so I'm not annoying people as much.

If you have any further questions, please send me a private message to debate.

Cheers!
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
Nathan Drake
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Nathan Drake »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:05 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:48 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:43 pm

I'm a long-term investor. So I'll hold all of these at least a year, then adjust accordingly based on what market looks like after I've held each "trade" at least a year.

TSLA is the obvious choice where it would make sense for me to sell some at this point, but AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA are all long term holds for probably 10-15 years.

My allocation in ARK funds may roll back to a whole index after this year, depending on performance during the year as well as performance in other assets.
One year really isn’t a long enough horizon for any strategy, just look at real investor returns for any hot fund manager...they are way less because they don’t stay the course

If you truly believe in Ark’s funds you will need to hold for 5-10+ Years

I can do that with index funds that own the whole market. I couldn’t stomach that for actively managed sector funds
This is bad advice.
ARK is a tool that is out there for investing. If management should change, fee structure change, technologies evolve, it would be bad advice to not review as these changes happen. For this study I'm holding throughout the year and reassessing based on performance and goals.
I recommend you read up on the returns of Peter Lynch vs. the average returns of his investors.

What happens if Ark does worse than the market this year, but has the same fee structure and management?
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by White Coat Investor »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm Had all broad index portfolio.
In 2020 I sold some real estate. I put some into VTI. I doubled down on the VTI giants, Apple, Google, and Amazon. I felt over the next few years, these are companies that will be around and successful 5-10 years from now. I felt they will out produce the market.
Investing on feelings usually doesn't work out well.
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
Where did these numbers come from? Did you just make them up?
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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calvin+hobbes
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by calvin+hobbes »

Look forward to following your performance. It’s not for me, but I’m happy to live vicariously through your exercise.

Please keep us posted and good luck!
dixdak
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by dixdak »

I have two questions for OP-

What size portfolio are you working with here?

What exactly is your end game on this forum? You can't foresee anyone here being swayed by short term gains in your little game?
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by fingoals »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:50 pm
fingoals wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:20 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm ...
Crypto
Continuing to search for an option that could hold value in the face of possibility of the declining dollar, I started looking into cryptocurrency. Late in 2020 I bought my first BTC and ETH.

Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
I broke this out into more detail, but in my risk/reward matrix, this to me made it a reasonable bet to invest in knowing I can hold it for at least a year, and possibly longer if I feel it's advantageous to in the future.
...
Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.
Where do your probability numbers for the cryptoassets risk/reward matrix come from? If those are your guesstimates, what is the relevant rationale?

Also, I'm curious about your BTC/ETH ratio? I'm seeing various opinions and suggestions on that: from overweighting BTC to 50/50 to overweighting ETH.
My BTC to ETH was about 90% BTC, 10% ETH.

Regarding rationale on crypto, it's one very few options I see where I could in theory make an exponential return.
People whose opinion I value seem to be betting on it, so I am as well. But for an opportunity at a low chance at a very high return, with limited down side (I really believe worst case is 50% loss in a year, yet I'll keep holding), this seems like a safe bet.

I'm able to hold this for 5-10 years if I feel the need to eventually get to a "break even", and with the high volatility, I would think I would recover from a 50% drop within that timeframe.

Based on my assumptions, of the possible outcomes, I come up with an "averaged" likelihood of returns end of 2021 of 18%.
Many others would disagree with this this however because they would put 0% likelihood on my most optimistic returns.
I appreciate your clarifications. Having said that, I was asking not about rationale on crypto in general, but rather about your rationale on the breakdown of probabilities in your risk/reward matrix. Apparently, those are just some arbitrary numbers roughly matching your broad-stroke guesstimates ...

It is quite interesting that you are largely betting on BTC as store of value and inflation hedge rather than ETH (and, by extension, the DeFi perspectives). At the end of last year, the predominant suggested ratio for BTC/ETH that I have seen was 80/20, then some people recommended 50/50 and now some people argue that ETH has a better chance to become a 10x asset (sooner) than BTC. Others promote an idea of adding some "solid altcoins" to one's cryptoassets portfolio, though, it seems to be even more speculative move - but potentially more attractive in the short term - than investing in BTC/ETH.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by dru808 »

What?! No small cap crypto, duckdao?
Sptm 60 | Vigi 20 | Blv 10 | Btc/Eth 10
TNWoods
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by TNWoods »

runninginvestor wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:14 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:01 pm
Pandemic Bangs wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:40 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm
Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
  • There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
  • There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
  • There is a 30% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
  • There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
Feel free to share what you feel the % chance for each is.
I like hearing opinions.
Just curious, shouldn't your probability space add up to 100%?
Right now it's a (2%+25%+30%+48%=) 105% chance that one of your scenarios will occur.
"This goes to 105."
"Does that mean these outcomes are more probable?"
"Well...it's 5 more probable isn't it? Most outcomes sets are 100. But let's say you want to increase your likelihood of having an outcome, and you're already at 100. Where can you go from there?"
"I don't know."
"Nowhere. Exactly. But what I do, when I need that extra push of probability--"
"You go to 105."
"I go to 105. Exactly. 5 more."
"But isn't 100 the maximum of probability?"
...
"This goes to 105."

TNWoods
freyj6
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by freyj6 »

This will be interesting if you update whenever you make changes and keep it going for a year or two.

Any after the fact changes like "I felt worried 2 weeks ago before the crash and sold all my Ark funds" is different.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by birdog »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:40 pm Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
1. What year Mustang?

2. I love burritos too!

3. Whispers: “OP is scaring me. Shhhhh.......”
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by burritoLover »

birdog wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:02 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:40 pm Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
1. What year Mustang?

2. I love burritos too!

3. Whispers: “OP is scaring me. Shhhhh.......”
Ha - no Mustang, just illustrating a point. :twisted:
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by cowbman »

What I dislike about ARK funds are that the Top 10 holdings of each ETF make up about 50% of the holdings and they charge a mutual fund-sized ER at ~ 0.75%. Why not write some rules with your broker on limits for buy/sell and just buy the Top 10 holdings of the ARK fund you are interested in? With $0 trading fees now, I think this would be easy to do. You could probably accomplish this nicely using M1. It's not wort keeping up with VTI or the S&P 500 at the really low ERs, but at closer to 1% ER with only 10 holdings, it's probably worth my time to write some rules for re-balancing.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by dmcmahon »

Why did you leave MSFT off that list of giants?
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

cowbman wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:58 pm What I dislike about ARK funds are that the Top 10 holdings of each ETF make up about 50% of the holdings and they charge a mutual fund-sized ER at ~ 0.75%. Why not write some rules with your broker on limits for buy/sell and just buy the Top 10 holdings of the ARK fund you are interested in? With $0 trading fees now, I think this would be easy to do. You could probably accomplish this nicely using M1. It's not wort keeping up with VTI or the S&P 500 at the really low ERs, but at closer to 1% ER with only 10 holdings, it's probably worth my time to write some rules for re-balancing.
Do it and share the pie with everyone!
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

dmcmahon wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:38 pm Why did you leave MSFT off that list of giants?
Maybe, because it only has a P/E ratio of under 35, it is took much of a value stock? :twisted:
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by asif408 »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.[/color]
No criticism, but I will say that my portfolio is about the polar opposite of yours (although you don't state specifically the index portion), so let's compare over the next few years and see how things go. Here's mine and the fund tickers:

Emerging Markets value (55%) - PXH
Developed ex-US large value (10%) - FNDF
Developed ex-US small value (10%) - AVDV
Global energy (10%) - FILL
US small cap value (15%) - VIOV

Might be instructive to compare how a performance chaser portfolio (you), a contrarian portfolio (me), and a boring middle of the road 3 fund portfolio compare over the next decade.
Last edited by asif408 on Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
orenishi
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by orenishi »

I appreciate you doing this. Much like indexing was considered a provocative means of investing compared to active management in its infancy, cryptocurrency and disruptive innovation should be explored and understood, even if it is controversial to what we discuss on this site. That open-mindedness will either allow for further support that indexing is right or that maybe there are other scenarios one should consider (based on their goals, risk tolerance, etc). Ethereum for example could have a multitude of uses in the future but I’ll stick to stocks.

Admittedly, I am not a Tesla fan boy and I don’t quite understand how they are the 5th largest company by market cap but I’ll spare that debate for another thread. My question to you – are you concerned with the amount of losses that are shown by the top companies in say, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)? The top 10 holdings have 2 maybe 3 (Baidu and Proto Labs) companies that show at least a brief history of consistently making money. I say maybe 3 because Tesla has yet to prove that they can make money without EV Credits. But even if you factor in Tesla, only 3 companies in the top ten are just recently making money. I understand a growth stock may not reap rewards until it scales but does that give you any concern?

I don’t want to talk you out of this because I want to see how this works (and may even grab some ARK) but curious to get your thoughts on the lack of income generated by the ETF’s underlying companies. Good luck!
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

anon_investor wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:00 pm
dmcmahon wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:38 pm Why did you leave MSFT off that list of giants?
Maybe, because it only has a P/E ratio of under 35, it is took much of a value stock? :twisted:
I bought Aapl in 2013. I bought Amazon and Googl this year.
I guess I was looking at the FAANG stocks and ruled out Facebook and Netflix. Social media is squirrely right now, and Netflix is gaining competitors constantly, so I passed on those two to hit on the other three.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

asif408 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:34 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.[/color]
No criticism, but I will say that my portfolio is about the polar opposite of yours (although you don't state specifically the index portion), so let's compare over the next few years and see how things go. Here's mine and the fund tickers:

Emerging Markets value (55%) - PXH
Developed ex-US large value (10%) - FNDF
Developed ex-US small value (10%) - AVDV
Global energy (10%) - FILL
US small cap value (15%) - VIOV

Might be instructive to compare how a performance chaser portfolio (you), a contrarian portfolio (me), and a boring middle of the road 3 fund portfolio compare over the next decade.
I'll keep everyone posted.
My current allocation WILL CHANGE over the next decade. I'm holding for the year and will re-evaluate about annually.

I guess we can always go back and check what it would do if I kept it the same.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 39% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 5% | BTC/ETH 5% | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by asif408 »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:47 pm
asif408 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:34 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.[/color]
No criticism, but I will say that my portfolio is about the polar opposite of yours (although you don't state specifically the index portion), so let's compare over the next few years and see how things go. Here's mine and the fund tickers:

Emerging Markets value (55%) - PXH
Developed ex-US large value (10%) - FNDF
Developed ex-US small value (10%) - AVDV
Global energy (10%) - FILL
US small cap value (15%) - VIOV

Might be instructive to compare how a performance chaser portfolio (you), a contrarian portfolio (me), and a boring middle of the road 3 fund portfolio compare over the next decade.
I'll keep everyone posted.
My current allocation WILL CHANGE over the next decade. I'm holding for the year and will re-evaluate about annually.

I guess we can always go back and check what it would do if I kept it the same.
I imagine mine will too, though gradually. Investing is not an exact science.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by anon_investor »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:47 pm
asif408 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:34 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:56 pm Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.[/color]
No criticism, but I will say that my portfolio is about the polar opposite of yours (although you don't state specifically the index portion), so let's compare over the next few years and see how things go. Here's mine and the fund tickers:

Emerging Markets value (55%) - PXH
Developed ex-US large value (10%) - FNDF
Developed ex-US small value (10%) - AVDV
Global energy (10%) - FILL
US small cap value (15%) - VIOV

Might be instructive to compare how a performance chaser portfolio (you), a contrarian portfolio (me), and a boring middle of the road 3 fund portfolio compare over the next decade.
I'll keep everyone posted.
My current allocation WILL CHANGE over the next decade. I'm holding for the year and will re-evaluate about annually.

I guess we can always go back and check what it would do if I kept it the same.
My biggest knock against ARK is the expense ratio. I think some individual stocks are okay as long as they do not dominate your portfolio. I personally like information technology, but I do not buy individual stocks, instead I buy VGT (Vanguard Information Technology Index) with a 0.10% expense ratio. But this is just a tilt to my portfolio.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by Anon9001 »

ARK is probably the weakest out of the positive skewed assets you picked. The fee is too high for active management in most efficient market of World. Considering the holdings are public why not buy the companies direct?
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by FIBoston »

I'm using ARKG, ARKF, TSLA, BTC, ETH and a few other stocks to super charge my taxable savings this year to try to get to enough money for a down payment faster than I could have otherwise. The flow of money into people's pockets that will come this year from the government makes this attractive to me. All of my retirement money is still in passive index funds.

this is a fun project. I don't really understand all the pearl clutching from folks on here who can't believe you aren't only invested in VTI, VXUS and BND. I'm excited to follow along.
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Re: Tracking my ARK / Bitcoin - non-Boglehead portfolio

Post by decapod10 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:54 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:40 pm Are there no good forums for all this rampant bitcoin/ARK speculation? I don't post about my Mustang build on the Civic forums because there are Mustang forums better suited for that.
+1. Why would somebody post a "non-Boglehead portfolio" on the Bogleheads forum?

It's like going to a vegan forum and posting about steak. Are there no better places to get input on steak?
I don't know, I mean how much more is there to talk about the 3 fund portfolio? Good to have some spice, especially if someone follows through with transparency. We have had trend following threads, market timing threads, Hedgiefundie Excellent adventure threads, THE "market timer" thread, tilting threads, etc. all of which I found interesting and worthwhile to have read, whether or not I actually agree or take part in them.
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