This is a non-Boglehead theory being discussed where I discuss ARK funds and cryptocurrencies including bitcoin.
If you would not like to read or discuss these items, please understand this at this point and view other threads instead.
I'm been a longtime Broad index investor. In 2020 I started expanding into other areas.
I've been debating the merits of it with several people. Rather than dive in all kinds of threads, I'll use this thread to provide updates on my portfolio / strategy through the year 2021. I'll update monthly with performance.
How I got here:
Had all broad index portfolio.
In 2020 I sold some real estate. I put some into VTI. I doubled down on the VTI giants, Apple, Google, and Amazon. I felt over the next few years, these are companies that will be around and successful 5-10 years from now. I felt they will out produce the market.
I was looking for other stocks that could out-perform the index. These are the reasons why:
- 1. Concern with the money being created via stimulus packages, that a 9% return on a broad index fund won't "feel like" a real 9% return if we have 9% inflation on costs on goods like real estate.
- Concern about over indexing. This topic has been discussed before. I'm not 100% sure it's not a risk as more and people broad-index. Many 401k's provide an S&P500 option, but not a total market. To hedge, I wanted to try stronger allocate my money in companies outside the S&P 500 companies.
- Seek out my other own companies who could out-perform, who were not S&P500 companies
EDIT: My current ARK Holdings (36% of portfolio) are across all 5 ARK funds. ARKG:40%, ARKQ, ARKK, ARKF, ARKW each roughly 15%.
I then also spent time doing my own stock picks along with a friend. I hold very small stakes in 15 random stocks based on a friends tip or my own screening that combined make up about 3%. Nikola was one (have since sold), but Tesla was another. Tesla grew (and I further invested) so it's now more than 1% of my portfolio.
I still hold some real estate but won't track / report on that.[/color]
Continuing to search for an option that could hold value in the face of possibility of the declining dollar, I started looking into cryptocurrency. Late in 2020 I bought my first BTC and ETH.
Essentially the risk analysis I'm doing on crypto is this.
- There is a 2% chance I lose 100% of what I invest in Cryptocurrency.
- There is a 25% chance that end of year price is half the price at the start of 2020.
- There is a 25% chance crypto stays stagnant in the range in which I purchase. 0% return.
- There is a 48% chance crypto increases substantially.
End of month I'll update this thread with the returns so far, understanding well that in November, everything might go to hell. I'll add commentary at that time if I changed my approach on anything.
I'll use Dec 31/Jan 1 starting prices for:
If I have a substantial gain or loss on any "play stocks", I'll call that out separately. I will be adding positions to my portfolio throughout the year (401k plan and other purchases) which may change my allocation, but for this threads tracking purposes, I'll report on this as my allocation for the year.
Index ETF's 41%
ARK Funds 36%
Other individual stocks 3%
Bitcoin / ETH 4%
Questions, comments, criticisms, welcomed. Just trying to provide transparency on how 2021 goes.
[Formatting edited by moderator oldcomputerguy]