On what are you most bullish?

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000
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On what are you most bullish?

Post by 000 »

The "what" can be a broad asset class, some specific part of it, or even individual securities.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by magicrat »

Human ambition and ingenuity
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by yog »

5G, UWB, AI
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by JamesDean44 »

My 2 cents: I'm generally bullish on EM equities, gold and silver, and global commodity producer equities over the next year or two.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by cheese_breath »

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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by willthrill81 »

SCV.

Here's why.

1. SCV has outperformed the S&P 500 in every 20 year period on record save one.

2. The concentration of stocks in the S&P 500 seems to be strongly suggestive that SCV is about to outperform significantly, as in potentially 9-13% annualized over the next five years.

3. After underperforming TSM for a couple of years, it's been roaring back to life for the last six months or so (i.e., appears to have strong momentum).

4. I've lost count of the number of threads and posts during the last year of people giving up on SCV.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by Normchad »

magicrat wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:23 pm Human ambition and ingenuity
+1. Me too.....
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by whodidntante »

Stocks over yonder. Ex-USA in general isn't cheap, but it's relatively cheap compared to USA. EM Value still looks cheap after some nice gains.

Value in general.

Small is still cheaper than large.

Oil

Short position on long-bonds.

But then, I'm an optimist.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by surfstar »

Savings rate.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by HippoSir »

whodidntante wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:35 pm Stocks over yonder. Ex-USA in general isn't cheap, but it's relatively cheap compared to USA. EM Value still looks cheap after some nice gains.

Value in general.

Small is still cheaper than large.

Oil

Short position on long-bonds.

But then, I'm an optimist.
I agree with all of this. That probably means we're both wrong. :happy
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by burritoLover »

Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by dru808 »

The s&p 1500.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by esteen »

surfstar wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:45 pm Savings rate.
+1! You beat me to it :sharebeer
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by TheTimeLord »

000 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:10 pm The "what" can be a broad asset class, some specific part of it, or even individual securities.
What do you mean by Bullish? Most certain to go up or what you think will go up the most?
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by freyj6 »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:33 pm SCV.

Here's why.

1. SCV has outperformed the S&P 500 in every 20 year period on record save one.

2. The concentration of stocks in the S&P 500 seems to be strongly suggestive that SCV is about to outperform significantly, as in potentially 9-13% annualized over the next five years.

3. After underperforming TSM for a couple of years, it's been roaring back to life for the last six months or so (i.e., appears to have strong momentum).

4. I've lost count of the number of threads and posts during the last year of people giving up on SCV.
+1.

I certainly think we could see a big pullback and SCV could take a big hit like it always does in big declines, but over the next 5 years I'm very bullish.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by 000 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:00 am
000 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:10 pm The "what" can be a broad asset class, some specific part of it, or even individual securities.
What do you mean by Bullish? Most certain to go up or what you think will go up the most?
Combine the two to get the expected return you anticipate.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by phxjcc »

SFH's in the sun belt.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by birdog »

burritoLover wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:51 pm Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history.
I laughed at this post and then I stopped when I realized that I pretty much agree with it.
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000
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by 000 »

burritoLover wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:51 pm Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history.
birdog wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:39 am I laughed at this post and then I stopped when I realized that I pretty much agree with it.
Then what do you think will be least bad?
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by birdog »

000 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:45 am
burritoLover wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:51 pm Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history.
birdog wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:39 am I laughed at this post and then I stopped when I realized that I pretty much agree with it.
Then what do you think will be least bad?
Some new technology or platform that I can’t identify prior to it's rise? Some new Elon Musk venture? Unfortunately I don’t have much imagination is this area. I guess that’s why I’m so happy with my two-fund portfolio. It eliminates decisions that I’d probably just get wrong anyway. I watch “sure bets” go south in the investment world and embrace the simple investment philosophy even more.
Last edited by birdog on Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by minimalistmarc »

I don’t know what will happen with equities but I am very bullish on the world economy in general and enjoy the feeling of going along for the ride with global equities.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by Ivygirl »

U.S. REITs.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by Sandtrap »

Real Estate: Self owned and managed: Multi Unit residential income property (low rise apartment building) in the right area at the right price, and annual appreciative value, and net return. (sometimes)

Cash (always)

j :D
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by burritoLover »

000 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:45 am
burritoLover wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:51 pm Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history.
birdog wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:39 am I laughed at this post and then I stopped when I realized that I pretty much agree with it.
Then what do you think will be least bad?
I would say SCV and international but that seems too obvious.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by firebirdparts »

Emerging markets. Not that I am saying tilt that way. I'm just saying that in our world today, if you had, say, a country where people live on a dollar a day, wouldn't you expect them to have more room to grow?
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by asif408 »

Right now, I'd say, in order of bullishness:

1) EM Value & global energy producers
2) US and developed ex-US SCV
3) Developed ex-US value stocks
4) Gold and silver miners
5) I-bonds

For #4, I was more bullish early last year and late 2019, particularly for silver miners, as the gold/silver ratio reached its highest point in over 100 years. I usually don't participate in short-term market timing (I do utilize longer-term market timing), but I did switch over all of my gold miner position to silver miners in late 2019. It payed off, as silver miners had about a 60% return over that time vs. a 30% return for gold miners.

Once silver and gold miners went up between 100-200% from March to August of last year I decided in the shorter term I'm not bullish (any asset class that goes up 100-200% in a few months is due for some pullback) but longer term I am, because they are still down 40% from there all time highs in 2011.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by Anon9001 »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:33 pm
I would advice you to read Howard Marks letter "Something Of Value". The data-mined results that Fama-French came up with were when the Internet was not widespread and it was very hard to get good data on securities. There is no guarantee that SCV will persist in the future. Another thing that is giving me confidence in proclaiming this is the lack of statistically significant large-cap value premium outside Japan for 1992-2014 (out-of-sample of Fama 1992 paper). If Value was risk based we would see the LCV premium being statistically significant outside Japan but we don't and that should worry people who are tilting to Value here because what is preventing SCV from heading down the same road? Even the man himself Fama who data-mined the "Value" factor does not know if it still exists for USA.
Last edited by Anon9001 on Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by TheTimeLord »

000 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:18 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:00 am
000 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:10 pm The "what" can be a broad asset class, some specific part of it, or even individual securities.
What do you mean by Bullish? Most certain to go up or what you think will go up the most?
Combine the two to get the expected return you anticipate.
So I ask you if you are saying 1+1 is 2 or 10 and you tell me it is "A".
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by ScubaHogg »

burritoLover wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:51 pm Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history.
Worse than Russia in the 1910s?

Worse than China in the 1940s?

Worse than the US in the 1930s?

Heck, I’d be surprised if it was even worse than the US in the 1970s
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by livesoft »

Truth, not lies.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by JamesDean44 »

asif408 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:46 am Right now, I'd say, in order of bullishness:

1) EM Value & global energy producers
2) US and developed ex-US SCV
3) Developed ex-US value stocks
4) Gold and silver miners
5) I-bonds

For #4, I was more bullish early last year and late 2019, particularly for silver miners, as the gold/silver ratio reached its highest point in over 100 years. I usually don't participate in short-term market timing (I do utilize longer-term market timing), but I did switch over all of my gold miner position to silver miners in late 2019. It payed off, as silver miners had about a 60% return over that time vs. a 30% return for gold miners.

Once silver and gold miners went up between 100-200% from March to August of last year I decided in the shorter term I'm not bullish (any asset class that goes up 100-200% in a few months is due for some pullback) but longer term I am, because they are still down 40% from there all time highs in 2011.
I have similar views, though I think gold and silver still have further to climb in the near-term. We'll see what happens.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by CyclingDuo »

000 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:10 pmThe "what" can be a broad asset class, some specific part of it, or even individual securities.
What I am most bullish on, in bullet points...

• "Don't do something, just stand there." - John Bogle

• "Much—and perhaps most—of the money you’ll accumulate for retirement will reflect the raw dollars you sock away and not the investment returns you earn. Because savings are so crucial, and because they’re the key driver of your ultimate nest egg, how you invest is somewhat less important." - Jonathan Clements

• During our working careers we are bullish on continuing to sock it away in our chosen AA every week, every month, and every year no matter what the market does, no matter what people are saying, no matter what the news is, and no matter how smitten the latest trend followers become.
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by gmtret »

Seriously? Hands down my bullishness is steadfast in my ability to live within my means and, so, prepare for come what may. Many variables here but I owe me Dad for this. What a mighty man!
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:33 pm SCV.

Here's why.

1. SCV has outperformed the S&P 500 in every 20 year period on record save one.

2. The concentration of stocks in the S&P 500 seems to be strongly suggestive that SCV is about to outperform significantly, as in potentially 9-13% annualized over the next five years.

3. After underperforming TSM for a couple of years, it's been roaring back to life for the last six months or so (i.e., appears to have strong momentum).

4. I've lost count of the number of threads and posts during the last year of people giving up on SCV.
I definitely wish this was true. I’m skeptical only because how dominant big tech has gotten. I don’t want to use the “m” word but I will say as a small business owner who has a long memory, it’s never been harder to compete that it is right now. In many cases, it’s impossible. The mega cap tech companies have done a masterful job of eliminating competition.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by BabaWawa »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:33 pm SCV.

Here's why.

1. SCV has outperformed the S&P 500 in every 20 year period on record save one.

2. The concentration of stocks in the S&P 500 seems to be strongly suggestive that SCV is about to outperform significantly, as in potentially 9-13% annualized over the next five years.

3. After underperforming TSM for a couple of years, it's been roaring back to life for the last six months or so (i.e., appears to have strong momentum).

4. I've lost count of the number of threads and posts during the last year of people giving up on SCV.
Indicator #5. Fewer recent posts from Taylor warning about evils and under-performance of SCV tilt. :greedy
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by nedsaid »

I have been bullish on US Large Value for a few years, that hasn't worked out so well. So for whatever it is worth, I am bullish on US Value and International Stocks. I increased my stake in TIPS a bit, not because they are cheap (they are not) but because I suspect inflation will tick up with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by LiveMusic »

Dumb question. What does SCV stand for?
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by JamesDean44 »

LiveMusic wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:47 am Dumb question. What does SCV stand for?
Small cap value.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by burritoLover »

ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:56 am
burritoLover wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:51 pm Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history.
Worse than Russia in the 1910s?

Worse than China in the 1940s?

Worse than the US in the 1930s?

Heck, I’d be surprised if it was even worse than the US in the 1970s
U.S. post-depression era. And when has a worst decade to invest in history ever not been a surprise for the people living through it.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by LiveMusic »

JamesDean44 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:48 am
LiveMusic wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:47 am Dumb question. What does SCV stand for?
Small cap value.
Thanks :happy
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by KneePartsPro »

If I can have three, they would be equities, bonds and real estate all fueled by an amazing soon-to-be historical period currently known as our future.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by willthrill81 »

Anon9001 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:51 am
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:33 pm
I would advice you to read Howard Marks letter "Something Of Value". The data-mined results that Fama-French came up with were when the Internet was not widespread and it was very hard to get good data on securities. There is no guarantee that SCV will persist in the future.
Those looking for guarantees shouldn't be buying stocks at all.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by flyingaway »

I have a 70/30 asset allocation, I am bullish on that.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

that investing in the global stock market as a whole is the best way for me to meet my long term goals.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by Prahasaurus »

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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by 3funder »

International stocks.
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by goodenyou »

That the market will fluctuate.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by TheTimeLord »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:03 am
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:51 am
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:33 pm
I would advice you to read Howard Marks letter "Something Of Value". The data-mined results that Fama-French came up with were when the Internet was not widespread and it was very hard to get good data on securities. There is no guarantee that SCV will persist in the future.
Those looking for guarantees shouldn't be buying stocks at all.
Next thing you are going to tell me life doesn't come with guarantees either.
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by willthrill81 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:15 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:03 am
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:51 am
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:33 pm
I would advice you to read Howard Marks letter "Something Of Value". The data-mined results that Fama-French came up with were when the Internet was not widespread and it was very hard to get good data on securities. There is no guarantee that SCV will persist in the future.
Those looking for guarantees shouldn't be buying stocks at all.
Next thing you are going to tell me life doesn't come with guarantees either.
Only two. :twisted:
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Re: On what are you most bullish?

Post by JD2775 »

surfstar wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:45 pm Savings rate.
^ this

If the next 10 years are going to be flat, or down or whatever, the only thing I can control is how much I am saving. 10 years from now will be when I am thinking about retiring, or within 5 years of it, so hopefully the market will jump back up at the perfect time for that :)
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