If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

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ccf
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If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ccf »

i know, another bitcoin thread. If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell, if ever? I'm very interested in Bogleheads' answers to this.

Last year I allocated 1% of my portfolio to Bitcoin as a long term investment. I think it's currently at 3%.

I need to have some plan for rebalancing. My tentative plan is to set this asset to 4% of my portfolio but let it drift out of balance by as much as 3% (same band that I use for other holdings) which means that I could let it lie unless Bitcoin passes $90k or falls back below $10K.


update: I sold off nearly all of my crypto viewtopic.php?p=5720974#p5720974
Last edited by ccf on Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:53 pm, edited 14 times in total.
stuper1
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by stuper1 »

I bought $300 worth of bitcoin in 2017, and mine is now worth $10,000. I sold $2,000 of it this week to buy an ounce of gold, which I also like to hold. At this point I feel like I've more than gotten my money's worth on my initial investment, and now I'm playing with house money. In other words, this is just fun money for me, not an actual part of my investment portfolio in my mind. My plan is to ride the wave to the top of the current cycle, and try to sell as near the top as I can (easier said than done right). Then, after it inevitably plunges, I will try to buy in at the next low point as best I can and then ride the wave back up.

For someone like you, who is wanting to make this a permanent part of your portfolio, I think you're on the right track to pick a percentage that you are comfortable with, and then rebalance when it gets out of whack up or down. This will automate the process of buying low and selling high. If you don't follow a plan like that, you will very likely end up making behavioral mistakes.
APX32
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by APX32 »

I answered this in another post, but here it goes. No plans to sell what’s left after I took some profits to recoup the initial investment. I’m going to let this one run to wherever it goes. If all the gains evaporate, no problem, I’m fine with it, since I get to fall back on the rest of my investments which are close to 50/50 with a bit of gold sprinkled in.

I may re-consider if one of the more outlandish price targets ($500k for instance) is reached.
40% SPY | 9% GLD | 4% BTC | 2% ARK | 5% VXUS | 40 % Cash (I-bonds, LTTs, MMs)
jhsu802701
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by jhsu802701 »

The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
Corsair
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Corsair »

jhsu802701 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:33 pm The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
Will be interesting to see the reactions here if Tether gets shut down. It will take BTC and everything else significantly down with it.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
dru808
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by dru808 »

Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:39 am
jhsu802701 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:33 pm The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
Will be interesting to see the reactions here if Tether gets shut down. It will take BTC and everything else significantly down with it.
Who’s shutting and why would it be shut down?
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Corsair
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Corsair »

dru808 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:43 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:39 am
jhsu802701 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:33 pm The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
Will be interesting to see the reactions here if Tether gets shut down. It will take BTC and everything else significantly down with it.
Who’s shutting and why would it be shut down?
Not saying it will, however, it could... This thread lays it out well and is updated with new information: Twitter: Tether Price Manipulation Thread

The chain shows Tether Treasury just printed 400,000,000 USDT ($401,431,070 USD) six hours ago actually. Three days ago 400,000,000. Four days ago 200,000,000. Five days ago 300,000,000. (I probably missed some additional mints.) Pretty interesting stuff.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
BruDude
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by BruDude »

Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:51 am
dru808 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:43 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:39 am
jhsu802701 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:33 pm The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
Will be interesting to see the reactions here if Tether gets shut down. It will take BTC and everything else significantly down with it.
Who’s shutting and why would it be shut down?
Not saying it will, however, it could... This thread lays it out well and is updated with new information: Twitter: Tether Price Manipulation Thread

The chain shows Tether Treasury just printed 400,000,000 USDT ($401,431,070 USD) six hours ago actually. Three days ago 400,000,000. Four days ago 200,000,000. Five days ago 300,000,000. (I probably missed some additional mints.) Pretty interesting stuff.
People have been talking about this for years. Meanwhile it’s still 10x this year.

I plan to sell when I can afford to retire. At this rate it might be sooner than expected 👀
Anon9001
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Anon9001 »

After adjusting my AA for real estate/land I plan to inherent from my father in 10-20 years my allocation to this 0.1% and I intend to rebalance only when it reaches 10% of the total portfolio so not anytime soon.
Land/Real Estate:89.0% Equities:5.0% Bonds:2.0% Gold:1.7% Cash:1.7% Cryptocurrency:0.2%
Corsair
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Corsair »

BruDude wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:25 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:51 am
dru808 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:43 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:39 am
jhsu802701 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:33 pm The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
Will be interesting to see the reactions here if Tether gets shut down. It will take BTC and everything else significantly down with it.
Who’s shutting and why would it be shut down?
Not saying it will, however, it could... This thread lays it out well and is updated with new information: Twitter: Tether Price Manipulation Thread

The chain shows Tether Treasury just printed 400,000,000 USDT ($401,431,070 USD) six hours ago actually. Three days ago 400,000,000. Four days ago 200,000,000. Five days ago 300,000,000. (I probably missed some additional mints.) Pretty interesting stuff.
People have been talking about this for years. Meanwhile it’s still 10x this year.

I plan to sell when I can afford to retire. At this rate it might be sooner than expected 👀
If Tether is minted without a 1-1 USD collateral and used to purchase BTC of course it’s up 10X. Doesn’t mean that will continue. iFinex has delayed proving court documents for nearly two years, will see if they skip 1/15/21. Hopefully when you sell there are enough dollars in the system.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Prahasaurus
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Prahasaurus »

I’m way overweight in crypto, and I will eventually need to rebalance. My longer term goal is around 10-20% total portfolio in crypto. Now it’s significantly higher. My issue is I don’t want to sell, because I’m convinced Bitcoin and (especially) Ethereum are still way undervalued. And I have enough cash and other investments to cushion any pullbacks, even significant corrections (over 70%).

My problem is that I can sell and retire long before I think we’ve gotten close to fair value from my current crypto holdings. I think fair value for BTC now is around 200-300k USD, and I think Ethereum is 20k USD or so. So that’s 10x for BTC and 20x for Ethereum from current levels. I suppose I’ll start to slowly rebalance once I see BTC go over 100k USD and ETH go over 5k USD. I will definitely never sell it all, as I do believe, longer term, even 1 BTC and 32 ETH will have massive value.

I should also note about 20% of my total crypto holdings are in Ethereum based apps, not Ethereum itself. I’ll probably trim those holdings first, as the risk there is so much greater. But of course potential upside from here is massive, as well. For those interested, those apps are REN, AAVE, SNX, and UNI.

REN is tricky, as I run nodes, and this is generating additional BTC income for me monthly. This month I’ll see over 1000 USD in income (paid in BTC) from my REN investment. The rising BTC price obviously has a huge impact on that amount when measured in USD. I will likely keep enough REN to run 1 node in retirement, hoping I’ll see around 1-2k USD per month in fixed income from that one node. We’ll see, as this depends on REN maintaining its dominant position in what it does (bridging BTC to Ethereum and back, along with other crypto assets). I think we’ll be in a multi-blockchain world for many, many years, and hence there will be tremendous need to bridge assets across those chains (for a small fee). REN is a market leader, and well positioned to take a good % of that revenue.

I also plan to keep at least 32 ETH to run my own ETH node in retirement, as I think that too can be a very nice fixed income stream. But again, really depends on how the market develops from here, especially Ethereum’s move to 2.0. There are no guarantees, and it could all go to zero, crushing my hopes and dreams. :oops:

Final point. I was attracted to Ethereum because of the fixed income opportunities it enables. I think we’ll see very low returns on fixed income vehicles for the next decade, but crypto will be the exception. Again, we’ll see.

I will definitely transfer any cash from crypto back into a fairly standard Boglehead type portfolio. But I don’t think the time is ripe for that, yet.
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Valuethinker
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Valuethinker »

jhsu802701 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:33 pm The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
My Japanese smaller company ETF has done quite well (Europe-listed). At least in comparison to anything but US stocks.

So it's not as if Japanese companies cheapness is undiscovered. I think the consensus is that a lot of the low valuations of same are entirely justified by the known problems with the Japanese economy and corporate governance. The delta would be if Japanese companies had become more shareholder friendly.

Same is no doubt true for Emerging Markets. I hold an EM Dividend Yield fund, which was the closest I could get to proxying Value. It has done horribly, so it must be a good value investment ;-). Generally I haven't liked EM because of the predominance of the Chinese internet stocks, with all the valuation concerns attendant. It's clear that EM, being heavily resource-weighted ex China, would benefit from inflation, if we ever have that again.

Just tilting to full market weight (for a US investor) in these sectors seems to me to be a reasonable thing to do, without taking excessive risks of deviation from the global index.

I suspect for most investors here, being a US board, that would count as a big tilt against US stocks.
Prahasaurus
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Prahasaurus »

Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:57 am
BruDude wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:25 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:51 am
dru808 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:43 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:39 am
Will be interesting to see the reactions here if Tether gets shut down. It will take BTC and everything else significantly down with it.
Who’s shutting and why would it be shut down?
Not saying it will, however, it could... This thread lays it out well and is updated with new information: Twitter: Tether Price Manipulation Thread

The chain shows Tether Treasury just printed 400,000,000 USDT ($401,431,070 USD) six hours ago actually. Three days ago 400,000,000. Four days ago 200,000,000. Five days ago 300,000,000. (I probably missed some additional mints.) Pretty interesting stuff.
People have been talking about this for years. Meanwhile it’s still 10x this year.

I plan to sell when I can afford to retire. At this rate it might be sooner than expected 👀
If Tether is minted without a 1-1 USD collateral and used to purchase BTC of course it’s up 10X. Doesn’t mean that will continue. iFinex has delayed proving court documents for nearly two years, will see if they skip 1/15/21. Hopefully when you sell there are enough dollars in the system.
Tether is just the latest short term bump on the ever expanding crypto highway. Bitcoin opponents are always looking for something, and sometimes there is definitely cause for concern. I do think Tether is an issue, and I do think we could see a big pullback should the government go after Tether*. But again, for long term Bitcoin holders, this is just Tuesday. There is alway something. If I had 10 Satoshis for every time someone has proclaimed Bitcoin dead or about to die, I would have already retired. As I’ve told everyone who approaches me asking for advice on Bitcoin, if you can’t stomach massive pullbacks, if you’re not committed long-term, don’t invest in Bitcoin.

So to summarize, Tether is an issue. How big of an issue remains to be seen. Will it kill Bitcoin? Please. You might as well try to kill oxygen, or hope.

*Note the irony of the US government going after Tether for money printing, when the entire 2020 rally was driven by 9 trillion USD in money printing - propping up housing, bond, and equity markets - to bail out existing asset holders (read: the rich). The government could have let markets work and fail. Finally homes would be affordable for the masses! But no, the rich had to be bailed out, and here we are.
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JoMoney
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by JoMoney »

The idea that one has a "long term investment" in, or needs to "sell", or "take some profits" from their Bitcoin are all good indicators that Bitcoin, whatever one thinks it is, it's not money.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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ccf
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ccf »

?

Whatever you want to call it is okay with me. Most of my portfolio isn't money.

My portfolio does contain some risky concentrated investments in assets that I think are undervalued and while they are buy and hold investments and I want to give them room to grow, I do need to rebalance too.

I do wish I had asked "If you hold single stocks or an ARK fund or crypto when do you plan to sell?" because every thread about Bitcoin naturally meanders into a debate on its utility and value and I've been a part of that. I'm here for the Boglehead content but I work in tech and payments and growth of the crypto ecosystem has happened faster than expected and I like thinking about it and find it hard to resist having an opinion.

Tesla holders - how and when will you rebalance your Tesla?
Last edited by ccf on Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:19 am, edited 3 times in total.
johnkd
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by johnkd »

I'm a long-term holder, seems the recent move is driven more by long-term institutional buyers as transaction numbers have not risen versus the last spike in late 2017.
mws13
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by mws13 »

I used to say I will balance Bitcoin at 20% of my portfolio. Right now I’m at about 28% of my portfolio in Crypto. Because I now understand Ethereum, I have adjusted that to be 50% of my portfolio will be Crypto. Candidly the more I learn about Ethereum the more I think that I will be adjusting that number too. Why? Because I can use ETH for real world applications. Bitcoin is just digital gold.

Ethereum is the real deal. I am actually using a Ethereum-like Crypto now to run some trial apps because I don’t want to waste ETH on my mistakes.

I am 7+ years into Crypto, I am in my 50’s, and it not a “thing” for me. I am no longer a “believer”. I am a user or at least an early adopter of real world applications.

Took me a long time to get to this point so this is not dismissing anyone and good luck with your research if you’re so inclined.
Last edited by mws13 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Right now, I don't plan to sell.

I think as the adoption of crypto becomes more common place I'll probably shift more into crypto.

To me, your question of when to sell it a bit like asking "When are you going to stop using Uber and start using Taxis again?"
Or "When are you going to start paying your bills with paper checks again?"
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 3% | BTC/ETH 4% | | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by sperry8 »

APX32 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:40 pm I answered this in another post, but here it goes. No plans to sell what’s left after I took some profits to recoup the initial investment. I’m going to let this one run to wherever it goes. If all the gains evaporate, no problem, I’m fine with it, since I get to fall back on the rest of my investments which are close to 50/50 with a bit of gold sprinkled in.

I may re-consider if one of the more outlandish price targets ($500k for instance) is reached.
I never understand this answer. Run until when? There must be a sale price... otherwise you may as well throw away your BC key. If you never sell then there is no point in investing in an asset that doesn't pay dividends. Selling is the only way to win.

However, i do see that you at least set a price target of $500k. So that is your plan to sell (which contradicts your first sentence... "no plans to sell..."
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

sperry8 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:40 am
APX32 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:40 pm I answered this in another post, but here it goes. No plans to sell what’s left after I took some profits to recoup the initial investment. I’m going to let this one run to wherever it goes. If all the gains evaporate, no problem, I’m fine with it, since I get to fall back on the rest of my investments which are close to 50/50 with a bit of gold sprinkled in.

I may re-consider if one of the more outlandish price targets ($500k for instance) is reached.
I never understand this answer. Run until when? There must be a sale price... otherwise you may as well throw away your BC key. If you never sell then there is no point in investing in an asset that doesn't pay dividends. Selling is the only way to win.

However, i do see that you at least set a price target of $500k. So that is your plan to sell (which contradicts your first sentence... "no plans to sell..."
My guess is there are a whole lot of gold bugs with no sale price for gold since they likely buy if for protection so when you sell it you lose your protection.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by sperry8 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:44 am
sperry8 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:40 am
APX32 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:40 pm I answered this in another post, but here it goes. No plans to sell what’s left after I took some profits to recoup the initial investment. I’m going to let this one run to wherever it goes. If all the gains evaporate, no problem, I’m fine with it, since I get to fall back on the rest of my investments which are close to 50/50 with a bit of gold sprinkled in.

I may re-consider if one of the more outlandish price targets ($500k for instance) is reached.
I never understand this answer. Run until when? There must be a sale price... otherwise you may as well throw away your BC key. If you never sell then there is no point in investing in an asset that doesn't pay dividends. Selling is the only way to win.

However, i do see that you at least set a price target of $500k. So that is your plan to sell (which contradicts your first sentence... "no plans to sell..."
My guess is there are a whole lot of gold bugs with no sale price for gold since they likely buy if for protection so when you sell it you lose your protection.
There may be reasons one uses one asset as a hedge against something else. But my comment goes towards retail investors who comment that they will hodl and say they will never sell. It's an absurd comment on the face of it (to me). I think what they mean to say is something similar to this person who said never... but really doesn't know other than they have a "high" price target of $500k. It'd be better for them if they became clear on this sale target now (before emotions become involved as it nears their price target and they move the goalpost).
BH contests: 2020 #253 of 664 | 19 #233 of 645 | 18 #150 of 493 | 17 #516 of 647 | 16 #121 of 610 | 15 #18 of 552 | 14 #225 of 503 | 13 #383 of 433 | 12 #366 of 410 | 11 #113 of 369 | 10 #53 of 282
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TheTimeLord
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

sperry8 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:47 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:44 am
sperry8 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:40 am
APX32 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:40 pm I answered this in another post, but here it goes. No plans to sell what’s left after I took some profits to recoup the initial investment. I’m going to let this one run to wherever it goes. If all the gains evaporate, no problem, I’m fine with it, since I get to fall back on the rest of my investments which are close to 50/50 with a bit of gold sprinkled in.

I may re-consider if one of the more outlandish price targets ($500k for instance) is reached.
I never understand this answer. Run until when? There must be a sale price... otherwise you may as well throw away your BC key. If you never sell then there is no point in investing in an asset that doesn't pay dividends. Selling is the only way to win.

However, i do see that you at least set a price target of $500k. So that is your plan to sell (which contradicts your first sentence... "no plans to sell..."
My guess is there are a whole lot of gold bugs with no sale price for gold since they likely buy if for protection so when you sell it you lose your protection.
There may be reasons one uses one asset as a hedge against something else. But my comment goes towards retail investors who comment that they will hodl and say they will never sell. It's an absurd comment on the face of it (to me). I think what they mean to say is something similar to this person who said never... but really doesn't know other than they have a "high" price target of $500k. It'd be better for them if they became clear on this sale target now (before emotions become involved as it nears their price target and they move the goalpost).
Until we figure out how to value Bitcoin how would you set a price. If I was investing in Bitcoin it would be because of it almost undefinable upside so at this point there would no way for me to set a price. I am sure lots of people earlier this year would have picked a round number like $20k or $25k but it is $38k this morning, at this point in its development I am not sure you buy Bitcoin to sell. I think you buy it to hold and see where it is in X years knowing that could be virtually anywhere. It's more or less a lottery ticket type investment imho.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Tamalak
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Tamalak »

I love that there's not a single mention in this topic of using Bitcoin for its intended purpose.
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sperry8
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by sperry8 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:58 am
sperry8 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:47 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:44 am
sperry8 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:40 am
APX32 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:40 pm I answered this in another post, but here it goes. No plans to sell what’s left after I took some profits to recoup the initial investment. I’m going to let this one run to wherever it goes. If all the gains evaporate, no problem, I’m fine with it, since I get to fall back on the rest of my investments which are close to 50/50 with a bit of gold sprinkled in.

I may re-consider if one of the more outlandish price targets ($500k for instance) is reached.
I never understand this answer. Run until when? There must be a sale price... otherwise you may as well throw away your BC key. If you never sell then there is no point in investing in an asset that doesn't pay dividends. Selling is the only way to win.

However, i do see that you at least set a price target of $500k. So that is your plan to sell (which contradicts your first sentence... "no plans to sell..."
My guess is there are a whole lot of gold bugs with no sale price for gold since they likely buy if for protection so when you sell it you lose your protection.
There may be reasons one uses one asset as a hedge against something else. But my comment goes towards retail investors who comment that they will hodl and say they will never sell. It's an absurd comment on the face of it (to me). I think what they mean to say is something similar to this person who said never... but really doesn't know other than they have a "high" price target of $500k. It'd be better for them if they became clear on this sale target now (before emotions become involved as it nears their price target and they move the goalpost).
Until we figure out how to value Bitcoin how would you set a price. If I was investing in Bitcoin it would be because of it almost undefinable upside so at this point there would no way for me to set a price. I am sure lots of people earlier this year would have picked a round number like $20k or $25k but it is $38k this morning, at this point in its development I am not sure you buy Bitcoin to sell. I think you buy it to hold and see where it is in X years knowing that could be virtually anywhere. It's more or less a lottery ticket type investment imho.
Understood. But that's sort of the point. It cannot be valued. And yet, it has value (at least today). But one must turn it into true value by selling, or it will never have value. Someone's hesitance to set a sell price is called fomo (aka greed). Even a lotto ticket has a sale price (if you win). Stocks were lower than they are today in every single day in the past (since we are basically at all time highs). Does that mean one should be upset if they sold prior? Same goes for BC. Just because someone sold at $25k, doesn't mean they should be upset because this AM it was at $38k. The key was - they had a plan and stuck to it. Even setting a $500k sale price (before it gets close) is better than no plan at all. No plan at all leads you to never enjoying any of it. Bitcoin is a tool to wealth (at least until it isn't). The key is trading it for said wealth (at some #). Just because one struggles to value it - doesn't mean they shouldn't trade it for something. Perhaps the fellow who sold at $25k bought a new house, free and clear. Heck of a trade if so, imo.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Eschew_Obfuscation »

ccf wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:32 pm If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell, if ever?

I need to have some plan for rebalancing. My tentative plan is to set this asset to 4% of my portfolio but let it drift out of balance by as much as 3% (same band that I use for other holdings) which means that I could let it lie unless Bitcoin passes $90k or falls back below $10K.
First I think it is important to clarify the nature of Bitcoin: Bitcoin is a decentralized Ponzi scheme that will cease to be a Ponzi scheme if it has a wide enough acceptance (in my opinion). Perhaps gold was this way at some point in the past but we are beyond the point of it being widely accepted as a store of value. You can argue about utility of bitcoin but it seems to me that the hinge for Bitcoin to go one way or the other centers around wide enough adoption of it as a store of value or not. If it has wide enough acceptance then yes it can be considered a store of value, if not I think it will remain as a decentralized Ponzi scheme for rich and smart folks to do pump-and-dump schemes. How I approach Bitcoin is that it is part speculative in that it has very high potential but at the same time recognize it is part Ponzi scheme that needs to be withdrawn before everyone realizes it needs to be withdrawn.

With that being said, I break up my Bitcoin thinking into two categories: (1) purely speculative in that it has potential to replace gold as a store of value and I keep less than 1% (well it was 1% at the time I purchased it) of my liquid net worth, (2) the other is the portion I treat as a Ponzi scheme which I need to get out before everyone else realizes they want to get their money out. This was about 4% of my liquid net worth (when purchased) I consider it as something that needs to be actively monitored and sold as necessary. When is the right time to sell it? I don't know, that is a difficult question to answer since it has so much to do with the background of your personal finances as well as the decision making of the crowds. I must confess that I have bought and sold multiple times. If you know when the bubble is going to pop please let me know :P.

It is also worth noting that I use GBTC in a Roth IRA to eliminate the tax burden of getting in and out of the market.

Long story short: I treat 20% my BTC as speculative passive investment and treat the other 80% as something that needs to be actively monitored and sold. At the time of purchase this was about 5% of my liquid net worth.

Edit 1: I changed my mind. I don't believe in its future so now I am at 0% GBTC allocation.
Last edited by Eschew_Obfuscation on Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ccf »

Tamalak wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:06 am I love that there's not a single mention in this topic of using Bitcoin for its intended purpose.
If/when I rebalance by reducing my BTC position, I will do that by spending it. I don't know if I will be spending BTC or exchanging it for some other currency and then spending. That won't affect my planning.
Last edited by ccf on Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:40 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by lolbatross »

Tamalak wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:06 am I love that there's not a single mention in this topic of using Bitcoin for its intended purpose.
This thread was about selling which I interpreted to be as exiting the overall position or at least significantly reducing it. I used btc 8 times in 2020 to purchase things/services. Probably most notably was using btc to pay for most of my holiday gift purchases. In order to use btc for Amazon I was forced to purchase a gift card with btc and then load the gift card on Amazon. It worked well and its something I will do again.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by nocebo »

The same time I intend to sell my stocks in my taxable and 401k... when I retire... which is a long ways away
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by manatee2005 »

When it’s at $4mil per bitcoin.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by 400401402 »

lolbatross wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:38 am
Tamalak wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:06 am I love that there's not a single mention in this topic of using Bitcoin for its intended purpose.


This thread was about selling which I interpreted to be as exiting the overall position or at least significantly reducing it. I used btc 8 times in 2020 to purchase things/services. Probably most notably was using btc to pay for most of my holiday gift purchases. In order to use btc for Amazon I was forced to purchase a gift card with btc and then load the gift card on Amazon. It worked well and its something I will do again.
Considering spending bitcoin triggers capital gains taxable event, this is just crazy accounting overhead to use bitcoins as spending currency. bitcoin spend on coffee or gift card or even exchange for another virtual currency like Ether is considered asset sale and triggers capital gains. Overhead to convert a spend on coffee into capital gain reporting format using tax lots (FIFO etc.)

Though original Bitcoin paper/case put forth by Satoshi in that famous paper he published was peer to peer payments without trusted third party operating payments system (Fed in the US), to be honest that use case never took off, simply because of its inability to handle volume. Payment systems (especially retail ones) need a higher throughput than bitcoin offers; though for high value whole sale payment systems (think of settlements between Fed's members) a block chain based system may be viable in current design.

So bitcon's use case long long ago moved to one of digital bullion (this coupled with frenzy).
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

It all depends who you are.

If you are one of the true believers of a some decentralized crypto future, I don’t think you ever sell until you are either filthy rich and looking to cash some out, or when you retire and sell a little each year for spending money.

Those who view this as an investment should decide how much of it is a part of their asset allocation and rebalance as prices appreciate others depreciate. Take your emotions out of the equation.

If you are one of the people who got in to get rich, the FOMOs, then I think you will hold too long and miss the top of this bubble and sell at the low end out of fear. These people will be the suckers of this particular bubble.

Lastly, if you just bought a little to have fun and be a art of the talk, then it is a tiny portion of your wealth and it makes no difference what you do. I would probably hold it like a lottery ticket and start selling to keep it at 1% of your wealth if it gets that far.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by broadstone »

I won't be selling for the next 10 years. I see BTC going as high as $500k with possibilities of $1m+ being achieved. A severe correction and panic sell will likely happen once the $50k price is hit, I'll be buying more at $20k and holding for life. The reward to risk for Bitcoin is insane. Probably a once in a lifetime opportunity for those who really understand what BTC is and how blockchain will change the financial world. Imagine an investor in India who doesn't have access to certain financial opportunities, being able to buy a crypto token that tracks a stock like Apple. The possibilities are endless.

For the person who said BTC is a ponzi scheme, you couldn't be more wrong.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?g

Post by EnjoyIt »

broadstone wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:22 am I won't be selling for the next 10 years. I see BTC going as high as $500k with possibilities of $1m+ being achieved. A severe correction and panic sell will likely happen once the $50k price is hit, I'll be buying more at $20k and holding for life. The reward to risk for Bitcoin is insane. Probably a once in a lifetime opportunity for those who really understand what BTC is and how blockchain will change the financial world. Imagine an investor in India who doesn't have access to certain financial opportunities, being able to buy a crypto token that tracks a stock like Apple. The possibilities are endless.

For the person who said BTC is a ponzi scheme, you couldn't be more wrong.
The value of bitcoin today is based on increasing demand while supply stays low. For price to go up, bitcoin needs more buyers. Without indoctrinating more believers the price falls as there is no other intrinsic value to it other than the belief of others. This is very Ponzi like.

It is not a scheme or a scam though. There is no bitcoin lots out there sitting at the top of the pyramid.

So you can’t argue much, I will make your arguments for you:

1) Stocks are also valued by demand. That is true, but at the end of the day they are valued as a multiple of profit or expected future profit. Bitcoin does not have that in its current form.

2) Gold is valued by demand. Agreed, outside of a very small use in industry and jewelers gold is valued by the demand of others. Buying gold is speculating that someone will buy it for more than you. It is not investing, it is speculating.

3) Fiat money is valued by the people that use it. Agreed, but they are also backed buy the GDP of the country that prints it as well as the full force of its military. Bitcoin doesn’t have that either.

TLDR: Ponzi like, but not a scheme.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Corsair »

Prahasaurus wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:19 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:57 am
BruDude wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:25 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:51 am
dru808 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:43 am

Who’s shutting and why would it be shut down?
Not saying it will, however, it could... This thread lays it out well and is updated with new information: Twitter: Tether Price Manipulation Thread

The chain shows Tether Treasury just printed 400,000,000 USDT ($401,431,070 USD) six hours ago actually. Three days ago 400,000,000. Four days ago 200,000,000. Five days ago 300,000,000. (I probably missed some additional mints.) Pretty interesting stuff.
People have been talking about this for years. Meanwhile it’s still 10x this year.

I plan to sell when I can afford to retire. At this rate it might be sooner than expected 👀
If Tether is minted without a 1-1 USD collateral and used to purchase BTC of course it’s up 10X. Doesn’t mean that will continue. iFinex has delayed proving court documents for nearly two years, will see if they skip 1/15/21. Hopefully when you sell there are enough dollars in the system.
Tether is just the latest short term bump on the ever expanding crypto highway. Bitcoin opponents are always looking for something, and sometimes there is definitely cause for concern. I do think Tether is an issue, and I do think we could see a big pullback should the government go after Tether*. But again, for long term Bitcoin holders, this is just Tuesday. There is alway something. If I had 10 Satoshis for every time someone has proclaimed Bitcoin dead or about to die, I would have already retired. As I’ve told everyone who approaches me asking for advice on Bitcoin, if you can’t stomach massive pullbacks, if you’re not committed long-term, don’t invest in Bitcoin.

So to summarize, Tether is an issue. How big of an issue remains to be seen. Will it kill Bitcoin? Please. You might as well try to kill oxygen, or hope.

*Note the irony of the US government going after Tether for money printing, when the entire 2020 rally was driven by 9 trillion USD in money printing - propping up housing, bond, and equity markets - to bail out existing asset holders (read: the rich). The government could have let markets work and fail. Finally homes would be affordable for the masses! But no, the rich had to be bailed out, and here we are.
I didn't say BTC would die if Tether collapses and the allegations are true, however, what would prevent BTC and all others falling 80%?, 90%?, or 95% if they've been artificially propped up for years?

I'm also somewhat bullish long-term [decades] but not at these prices and pace. I see no difference in stocks backed by a Treasury printing USD and BTC backed by a HK company minting Tether out of thin air (if allegations are true). Neither is superior in principal.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ksualum »

jhsu802701 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:33 pm The fact that there's so much chatter about Bitcoin here makes me wonder if the peak is here or coming soon. My bullish remarks about the undervaluation of Japanese stocks and emerging market stocks usually get crickets.
I would add the UK markets to your undervalued argument
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ccf »

My goal is to not have to think about things. This is why we index, right?

I purchased in October so I've updated my IPS to say I will do nothing until I have held for a year, to avoid short term gains (I'm in the 37% bracket). Now I can stop thinking about it for now.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Prahasaurus »

Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:41 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:19 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:57 am
BruDude wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:25 am
Corsair wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:51 am

Not saying it will, however, it could... This thread lays it out well and is updated with new information: Twitter: Tether Price Manipulation Thread

The chain shows Tether Treasury just printed 400,000,000 USDT ($401,431,070 USD) six hours ago actually. Three days ago 400,000,000. Four days ago 200,000,000. Five days ago 300,000,000. (I probably missed some additional mints.) Pretty interesting stuff.
People have been talking about this for years. Meanwhile it’s still 10x this year.

I plan to sell when I can afford to retire. At this rate it might be sooner than expected 👀
If Tether is minted without a 1-1 USD collateral and used to purchase BTC of course it’s up 10X. Doesn’t mean that will continue. iFinex has delayed proving court documents for nearly two years, will see if they skip 1/15/21. Hopefully when you sell there are enough dollars in the system.
Tether is just the latest short term bump on the ever expanding crypto highway. Bitcoin opponents are always looking for something, and sometimes there is definitely cause for concern. I do think Tether is an issue, and I do think we could see a big pullback should the government go after Tether*. But again, for long term Bitcoin holders, this is just Tuesday. There is alway something. If I had 10 Satoshis for every time someone has proclaimed Bitcoin dead or about to die, I would have already retired. As I’ve told everyone who approaches me asking for advice on Bitcoin, if you can’t stomach massive pullbacks, if you’re not committed long-term, don’t invest in Bitcoin.

So to summarize, Tether is an issue. How big of an issue remains to be seen. Will it kill Bitcoin? Please. You might as well try to kill oxygen, or hope.

*Note the irony of the US government going after Tether for money printing, when the entire 2020 rally was driven by 9 trillion USD in money printing - propping up housing, bond, and equity markets - to bail out existing asset holders (read: the rich). The government could have let markets work and fail. Finally homes would be affordable for the masses! But no, the rich had to be bailed out, and here we are.
I didn't say BTC would die if Tether collapses and the allegations are true, however, what would prevent BTC and all others falling 80%?, 90%?, or 95% if they've been artificially propped up for years?

I'm also somewhat bullish long-term [decades] but not at these prices and pace. I see no difference in stocks backed by a Treasury printing USD and BTC backed by a HK company minting Tether out of thin air (if allegations are true). Neither is superior in principal.
Tether propping up BTC for years? Please... Again, Tether issues would just be another bump on the road. If you think it’s all a house of cards, then by all means, wait for them to fall and then you can buy those sweet, cheap Bitcoins. Or just short BTC now, there are many ways to do it. Good luck!
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by dru808 »

Closing in on $40k... whoa! Will this go straight to $100k or beyond?
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by queso »

I plan to sell at the top.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by hagridshut »

JPMorgan has a BTC price target of $146,000:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... erm-target

I saw earlier in the thread a guess of $1,000,000 per BTC.

These are approximately 5-33x gains over BTC's valuation just last month.

Are Cryptocurrency holders here planning to diversify out of BTC, and into ETH, and other Cryptos like DOGE, LTC, and XRP?

Or is this the next "U.S. vs. International" stocks debate?

Do people plan to re-balance out of Crypto if the valuation gets out of balance relative to other asset classes like stocks, bonds, and precious metals?
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by beastlybeast »

Most tried and true Bogleheads are too stubborn to ever understand Bitcoin, and have preconceived notions about what it is supposed to be and whether it measures up to that.

"It's not money because XYZ"

"It's not an investment because XYZ"

"It has no inherent value"

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

What it actually is: An internet-transmissible asset with perfectly verifiable fixed supply and no government required to back. The fact that it *works* an is what it derives value from, period.

Whatever it is, as long as you have a long enough time horizon and don't buy in a mania phase, it is an extremely asymmetric bet. It cannot be compared to tulip mania, which only had one bubble, not multiple subsequent ones each with a higher base.

I've owned and held BTC since 2014-15. I was young, single, and taking risks, and at the time BTC was a large % of my net worth (roughly a house down payment). My plan was to have as many asymmetric bets as I could (BTC, startup, etc) to make millions by my thirties. As luck would have it, all of those bets including BTC have paid off. I have seen my net worth rise to as high as 99% BTC and I've rode out TWO 80%+ crashes.

The reason I'm here is to learn about more traditional investments, wealth preservation, etc for the next phase of my life.

I will be 100% out at $130k, with a plan to wait until the next crash (there always is one) and start a smaller more permanent BTC allocation in my long-term portfolio (2.5% BTC 2.5% gold, the rest a standard 3-fund portfolio).

Why 130k? Well, any top-picking analysis is as good as tea leaves, but here's mine. I think the top of this cycle will be 130-160k. The mania phase of every cycle caps out at a lower % gain than the last (diminishing returns), b/c the market cap is so much bigger (now $1T), and it takes more to move the price. You can model (guess) this with logarithmic growth curves to some extent, and logarithmic Fibonacci extensions. Here's a post I made about it a year ago when price was only 7k: https://twitter.com/BeastlyBTC/status/1 ... 9846969344

Some might think we are already too frothy and this is the top. There are internal metrics you can look at that point to this being extremely unlikely. For one, price is being mostly driven by wallets with >$1M. These are not small retail traders that will panic sell at the drop of a hat. That part hasn't come yet. See:

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/134 ... 16833?s=20
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/134 ... 29440?s=20
Last edited by beastlybeast on Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Tamalak wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:06 am I love that there's not a single mention in this topic of using Bitcoin for its intended purpose.
The question was "When do you plan to sell?"



That's a bit like asking "When do you plan to sell your gold?"
"Wait, no one replied using gold as electric conductors or dental work!"
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by BruDude »

$39.5k, oh my. :sharebeer
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by LadyGeek »

beastlybeast wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:25 am The reason I'm here is to learn about more traditional investments, wealth preservation, etc for the next phase of my life.
Welcome! May I suggest you start a new thread in the Personal Investments forum and post your portfolio information using the Asking Portfolio Questions format? It will make you think about the "big picture" while giving us the information we need to point you in the right direction.

If you have any questions, ask them in the new thread.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by BruDude »

hagridshut wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:09 am JPMorgan has a BTC price target of $146,000:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... erm-target

I saw earlier in the thread a guess of $1,000,000 per BTC.

These are approximately 5-33x gains over BTC's valuation just last month.

Are Cryptocurrency holders here planning to diversify out of BTC, and into ETH, and other Cryptos like DOGE, LTC, and XRP?

Or is this the next "U.S. vs. International" stocks debate?

Do people plan to re-balance out of Crypto if the valuation gets out of balance relative to other asset classes like stocks, bonds, and precious metals?
I have been thoroughly enjoying watching my YFI, SNX, LRC, LINK, and UNI firing up. What a fun ride, even for a small portion of the overall portfolio. This has been my gamble gamble portion of investing but clearly it seems I should be reconsidering that.

"Should have bought more" they said.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ccf »

hagridshut wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:09 am Are Cryptocurrency holders here planning to diversify out of BTC, and into ETH, and other Cryptos like DOGE, LTC, and XRP?
I am. I simplified by saying "Bitcoin" but I'm holding at market cap weight: 83% BTC / 17% ETH. The next largest, Ripple, is too currently too small to bother with. If I included it it would under 2%.

(For context, my portfolio is 7 figures, my crypto position is 6 figures, and I plan to retire in 2022)
Last edited by ccf on Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

BruDude wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:42 am $39.5k, oh my. :sharebeer
I've did a little spreadsheet to determine if it's on pace for 100,000 by December 31.
Right now depending on if you break the increase by $ increase per day, or by a fixed percentage, the current value is where it would need to be Feb 23 or March 30th to be on pace for 100k.

It's on a torrid pace right now.
Dips will come of course.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by BruDude »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:54 am
BruDude wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:42 am $39.5k, oh my. :sharebeer
I've did a little spreadsheet to determine if it's on pace for 100,000 by December 31.
Right now depending on if you break the increase by $ increase per day, or by a fixed percentage, the current value is where it would need to be Feb 23 or March 30th to be on pace for 100k.

It's on a torrid pace right now.
Dips will come of course.
Where are all of the "I told you so" people that came out of the woodwork when it crashed to $27k....that was uh....3 days ago.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ohboy! »

Im looking for lifechanging cashout. And like my gold and silver I hope to never sell all.

Living in California and I am starting to think my lifechanging number could be coming soon. I’ve paid big taxes on crypto gains before but these would be even bigger. Starting to consider if I would want to move to sell this time.

I wont be surprised, or lose sleep if BTC is $20k come February. It will actually be harder to sleep if its $100k and I approach my current life changing number.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by dru808 »

queso wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:07 am I plan to sell at the top.
Lol 👍
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