2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1802
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

It’s that time of the year again, when the old year’s missteps and blunders are history (and only your investors’ problem at this point), and the New Year offers all the promise in the world for aspiring fund managers to show their skills and try beat the market. So put on your thinking caps this week and show us your favorite picks by next Monday morning.

This is the thread for the 2021 hedge fund contest. The official start of the contest will begin using Monday Jan 11th’s closing prices, so the hard cutoff for entries is 4pm ET when the market closes on Monday. I suggest trying to make up your mind by Monday morning and posting earlier so you don’t get busy during the day and forget. For reference, here is previous year's contest (2020) thread.

Here are the contest guidelines, same format as in previous years.
  • Pick a fancy name for your hedge fund.
  • Before 4:00pm EST on 11 Jan 2021, in this thread, pick up to three stocks to go long and up to three to short. Equal dollar amounts are placed on each position, long or short. Remember this is a stock picking contest, so ETFs and other funds are not allowed.
  • Opening prices will be based on Jan 11th close.
  • No trades during the year, except that you can elect at any time during normal exchange business hours to "freeze" a price for any individual position at that day's closing price, i.e. liquidate any position. (Each position carries this option; you can choose to freeze different positions on different days.) Other than that, you're stuck with what you choose for the year.
  • If a stock is taken out in a merger or a bankruptcy during 2021, we will do our best to do the right thing. An all cash offer will result in a freeze at the takeout price. An all stock offer will result in the conversion of the position to the acquiring company's shares. For mixed cash and stock offers or other more complicated events, you'll just have to trust me to saw things off fairly.
  • The universe from which to choose is the Russell 3000. You should be able find all your stock choices in the list below (up to name changes or similar):
Russell 3000 List - 2020

If you pick shares not on this list and it's not caught and corrected before the deadline, your portfolio or at least those ineligible choices will be disqualified. Dividends will not be counted.

Like last year, Tanelorn will be providing fixes and commentary as the year goes on. Once we get a spreadsheet prepared, you’ll be able to see that here:

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest
Last edited by Tanelorn on Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
HermanTheGerman
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:46 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by HermanTheGerman »

OK, let's do this:

Fund: FIRE2026_For_Sure

Long:
INTC
UAL
WDC

Short:
ABNB

Cheers!
User avatar
mokaThought
Posts: 286
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:57 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by mokaThought »

Truculent Trucker Fund

Long:
KSS — Kohl's
AAL — American Airlines
DXC — DXC Technology

Short:
NAV — Navistar Intertrashional

Note to @Tanelorn: Traton (a Volkswagen subsidiary) has agreed to acquire NAV later this year, so you will probably have to jump in manually and "freeze" NAV's price in the spreadsheet when that happens. I'm just betting on the acquisition falling through and tanking NAV's price.
Last edited by mokaThought on Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
70% stocks — 63% US TSM (VTI, 401k funds); 27% ex-US (IDEV, EMXC, FRDM); 10% REIT (FREL) | 30% bonds — TSP G Fund, TSP F Fund. Too conservative? It's my emergency fund. USN 2007–2014.
User avatar
geerhardusvos
Posts: 1567
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:20 pm
Location: heavenlies

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by geerhardusvos »

WFH - WORK FUND HOME

long: COST, AMZN, ZM
Last edited by geerhardusvos on Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
VTSAX and chill
User avatar
mokaThought
Posts: 286
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:57 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by mokaThought »

HermanTheGerman wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:09 am OK, let's do this:

Fund: FIRE2026_For_Sure

Long:
INTC
UAL
WDC

Short:
ABNB

Cheers!
Not seeing ABNB in the Russell 3000 list.
70% stocks — 63% US TSM (VTI, 401k funds); 27% ex-US (IDEV, EMXC, FRDM); 10% REIT (FREL) | 30% bonds — TSP G Fund, TSP F Fund. Too conservative? It's my emergency fund. USN 2007–2014.
User avatar
codoriti
Posts: 40
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:00 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by codoriti »

Spring Bay Capital

Long:
SONO
TWTR
PTON

Short:
TSLA
ZM
Last edited by codoriti on Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:45 pm, edited 4 times in total.
User avatar
mokaThought
Posts: 286
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:57 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by mokaThought »

[delete / Russell 3000 selection repaired]
Last edited by mokaThought on Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
70% stocks — 63% US TSM (VTI, 401k funds); 27% ex-US (IDEV, EMXC, FRDM); 10% REIT (FREL) | 30% bonds — TSP G Fund, TSP F Fund. Too conservative? It's my emergency fund. USN 2007–2014.
User avatar
codoriti
Posts: 40
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:00 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by codoriti »

mokaThought wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:29 am
codoriti wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:06 am Spring Bay Capital

Long:
TWTR
LMND
ISRG

Short:
TSLA
DASH
LMND and DASH aren't in the Russell 3000 list.
Ah right, I'll amend!
palaheel
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:35 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by palaheel »

FunnyMoney

long
darden (dri)
fedex (fdx)
smith & wesson (swbi)

short
tesla (tsla)
facebook (fb)
US Silica Hldgs (slca)
Markets crash. Markets recover. Inflation takes your money FOREVER.
Vanguard Fan 1367
Posts: 1889
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:09 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

The Florida Divers Fund

Short:

TSLA
Upton Sinclair: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
User avatar
LiveSimple
Posts: 1871
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:55 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LiveSimple »

Route to Retirement

Long

SQ - Square
V - Visa
NVDA - NVIDIA
Last edited by LiveSimple on Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Alchemist
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:35 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Alchemist »

Equivalent Exchange Fund

Long:

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines


Short:

GME - Gamestop


Editted 5 Jan: Original short position not in Russell 3000 (NKLA) so substituted GME as my short position
Last edited by Alchemist on Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
stickman731
Posts: 335
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by stickman731 »

Sticky Wonder Fund

LONG

GE
FB
REZI

SHORT
ASH
PLUG
honduranhurricane
Posts: 165
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:18 pm
Location: boston, ma

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by honduranhurricane »

Gandalf or Gollum

Long
AAPL
GE
DIS
Last edited by honduranhurricane on Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
greenback
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:42 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by greenback »

Long Shot Fund

Long
GE
AMD
NFLX

Short
TSLA
CMG
BYND
You shouldn’t retire until your money starts making more money than you made in your best year.
RubyTuesday
Posts: 509
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:24 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by RubyTuesday »

Tuesday’s Gone

Long
Boeing BA
Royal Caribbean RCL
Moderna MRNA



Short
Tesla TSLA
Biogen BIIG
CoreCivic CXW
“Doing nothing is better than being busy doing nothing.” – Lao Tzu
ccf
Posts: 263
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:13 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ccf »

Ready Player 2021

Long:
Unity Technologies - U
Snap Inc - SNAP
madpunster
Posts: 129
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:58 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by madpunster »

The Fat Fingered Flâneur

Longs: VIR, AFMD, FLNT
Shorts: FMBI, LQDA, ISTR
User avatar
Elsebet
Posts: 991
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:28 pm
Location: Erie, PA

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Elsebet »

Zap Rowsdower Fund

Long: ABT TMUS V
Short: ATVI BBBY RUTH
"...the man who adapts himself to his slender means and makes himself wealthy on a little sum, is the truly rich man..." ~Seneca
User avatar
dougger5
Posts: 401
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:58 am
Location: Not far from Malvern

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by dougger5 »

Moon Zero Two Capital Management

Long
QCOM
PYPL
RTX
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai
User avatar
mokaThought
Posts: 286
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:57 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by mokaThought »

Elsebet wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:17 am Zap Rowsdower Fund

Long: ABT TMUS V
Short: ATVI BBBY RUTH
This could very well be the end of the world. Of Warcraft.
70% stocks — 63% US TSM (VTI, 401k funds); 27% ex-US (IDEV, EMXC, FRDM); 10% REIT (FREL) | 30% bonds — TSP G Fund, TSP F Fund. Too conservative? It's my emergency fund. USN 2007–2014.
Greywolf
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:12 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Greywolf »

Greywolf Holdings -

Long-
CCL
AAL
NCLH

Short-
WLL


Thanks!
User avatar
Forester
Posts: 1742
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Forester »

Atlantic Gold Fund

Long
$WFC Wells Fargo
$GE General Electric
$XOM ExxonMobil

Short
$TSLA Tesla
$MSTR MicroStrategy
$ETSY Etsy
User avatar
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9263
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Rick Ferri »

East-West Fund

Short TSLA
Long GE

Third time's a charm! :wink:
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
MinnGuyInvesting
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Minnvest Holdings

LONG:
CVNA
MSTR
PYPL

SHORT:
DENN
M
SPG

Edit to add SPG on short.
Last edited by MinnGuyInvesting on Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:44 am, edited 3 times in total.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 3% | BTC/ETH 4% | | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
User avatar
timboktoo
Posts: 840
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by timboktoo »

Fund name: Beans

Long: CMG

Good luck to everybody, especially Rick Ferri!

PS. I was tempted to make a West-East fund that did the exact opposite of Rick this time. But I'm hungry for Chipotle right now, so I chose that instead.

- Tim
jmg229
Posts: 348
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:21 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by jmg229 »

Bravo PP Holdings

Long:
DAL
RCL
LUV

Short:
TSLA
QGEN
ZM
finite_difference
Posts: 2214
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by finite_difference »

If you can’t beat ‘em

Long: TSLA
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
HermanTheGerman
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:46 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by HermanTheGerman »

mokaThought wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:33 am
HermanTheGerman wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:09 am OK, let's do this:

Fund: FIRE2026_For_Sure

Long:
INTC
UAL
WDC

Short:
ABNB

Cheers!
Not seeing ABNB in the Russell 3000 list.
ABNB - AirBnB, it's just new ...
larrydmsn
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:58 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by larrydmsn »

Much Ado Fund

Long:
CCL
OXY
FTI

Short:
TSLA
ETSY
CARR
2cents2
Posts: 501
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:31 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by 2cents2 »

Guaranteed Renewal Fund
Long
CAVCO INDUSTRIES INC CVCO
CELLULAR BIOMEDICINE GRP CBMG
CALEDONIA MINING CORP CMCL

Short
SIX FLAGS ENTMT CORP SIX
Last edited by 2cents2 on Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1802
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

HermanTheGerman wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:58 pm
Not seeing ABNB in the Russell 3000 list.
ABNB - AirBnB, it's just new ...
ABNB is a new IPO and like all IPOs after June’20, it won’t be in our Russell 3000 universe and so it’s ineligible for this year’s contest. Next year presumably it’ll be eligible.

To summarize, any stock you pick should appear in this file (also linked in OP). The only exception I can think of is if a stock in the list changes its name and then the new ticker would be eligible but not appear there.
carlineng
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:11 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by carlineng »

Fund: Pill&Penny

Long:
ILMN
ARDX
KZR

Short:
IBM
ORCL
SAP
lgs88
Posts: 479
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:48 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by lgs88 »

Fund: Dude, Where's My Margin?

Long
Redfin (RDFN)
Ormat (ORA)

Short
Oneok (OKE)
merely an interested amateur
MinnGuyInvesting
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Alchemist wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:49 am Equivalent Exchange Fund

Long:

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines


Short:

NKLA - Nikola corporation
Nikola isn't in the list. (I was thinking same).
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 3% | BTC/ETH 4% | | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23047
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by abuss368 »

The Gekko Fund

Long
* GE
* Simon Property Group
* Apple

Short
* Tesla
* Uber
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
solar99999
Posts: 75
Joined: Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:32 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by solar99999 »

Long: LSCC
Short: PLUG

Fund Name: "Not What Buffett Would Do"
- Buffetthead | | "[Cash is] thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets."
totality
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:06 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by totality »

Fund: Closet Index Capital Management

Long:
MSFT
UNH
BRK.B
MMLC3
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:49 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MMLC3 »

KwikKiwi Moonshot fund

Long:
TDOC
CCL
CRWD
Pegasus_RPG
Posts: 75
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:06 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Pegasus_RPG »

The White Wings Flying Hedge Fund

Long:
TSLA
RCL
NCLH

Short:
FB
Last edited by Pegasus_RPG on Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
theorist
Posts: 768
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:39 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by theorist »

Fund name: Onebasket

Longs:
Teladoc
Draftkings
Palantir


Shorts:
Tesla
Zoom
Netflix
redbarn
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:07 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by redbarn »

Stir Crazy

Long:
MAR
MGM
STWD

Short:
DG
DLTR
TSCO
Alchemist
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:35 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Alchemist »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:44 pm
Alchemist wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:49 am Equivalent Exchange Fund

Long:

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines


Short:

NKLA - Nikola corporation
Nikola isn't in the list. (I was thinking same).
Ah rats! Thank you for the heads up, I have replaced it with GME and edited my original post.

NKLA is such an obvious short case it's almost tempting to short it for real :twisted:
keanoz
Posts: 115
Joined: Sun Oct 02, 2016 1:27 am
Location: Sunnyvale, CA

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by keanoz »

To The Moon Fund

Long:
Tsla
appl
sq
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6414
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Stinky »

Stinky's Sure Winners and Losers

Long -
LUV (Southwest Air)
DAL (Delta Airlines)
CCL (Carnival Corporation)

Short -
GNW (Genworth)
LNC (Lincoln National)
MET (Metropolitan)
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1802
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

theorist wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:45 am Fund name: Onebasket

Longs:
Draftkings
Palantir
Neither DKNG nor PLTR are eligible stocks this year. PLTR is too new of an IPO, and DKNG was a SPAC a merger but the prior stock DEAC wasn’t in Russell either.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68640
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

Fund: Falling Knife Financial

Short:
CHS - Chico's Fas Inc
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 68640
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

The 2021 contest has been added to the wiki: Bogleheads® contests

If there are any new investors who would like to participate but don't understand what to do, here's a quick explanation:
  • Pick up to 3 stocks (none, 1, 2, or 3) you think will be higher at the end of year. This is the "long" selection.
  • Pick up to 3 stocks (none, 1, 2, or 3) you think will be lower at the end of the year. This is the "short" selection.
  • You can pick a single fund (long or short).
  • Pick a fancy name for your fund.
- Real-time performance of the stocks within the Russell 3000 index can be found here: Russell 3000 Index Chart, Components, Prices - Barchart.com Go to the Russell 3000 components section. Select an entry from the drop-down list. Click on the column heading to sort by that heading.

If you select a stock from this site, double-check it against the "official" contest list in the first post of this thread.

- Google "hedge fund name generator" for tips on naming your fund.

- Don't worry about the details. If you get stuck, just pick something. The point is to enter the contest and participate. Then, see how your choices perform over the course of the year.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
klaw1021
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:36 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by klaw1021 »

FUND: Five Star Portfolio

Long: MITK
finite_difference
Posts: 2214
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by finite_difference »

Alchemist wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:10 am
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:44 pm
Alchemist wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:49 am Equivalent Exchange Fund

Long:

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines


Short:

NKLA - Nikola corporation
Nikola isn't in the list. (I was thinking same).
Ah rats! Thank you for the heads up, I have replaced it with GME and edited my original post.

NKLA is such an obvious short case it's almost tempting to short it for real :twisted:
Agreed. The company is tainted at this point. I wouldn’t personally short it or any stock except through my own hedge fund though.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
Post Reply