ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

sabhen · Post by **sabhen** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:19 pm

I wanted to start a thread as a counterweight to the US threads on this topic.

Foreign stocks have been beating US stocks (SPY) in the last 3 months by at least 6% (VEU) as of 12/30/2020.

ex-US stocks have been a laggard for a long time.

Is this a reversal to the mean?

arcticpineapplecorp. · Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:20 pm

don't know but i noticed the price per share of the total international stock market index fund finally reached (and beat) the price it was (previous) high I recorded back in 2018. The US has reached many new highs since 2018.

PackersFan12 · Post by **PackersFan12** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:22 pm

VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot!

000 · Post by **000** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:24 pm

Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?

JoMoney · Post by **JoMoney** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:25 pm

Maybe just be happy ex-US stocks are up...
Why does it need to be a relative to US stocks competition?
Maybe a thread re-title too, for some people, US stocks are "foreign"

Cautionary Tale · Post by **Cautionary Tale** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:29 pm

VWO is FINALLY over $50!

I'm selling

JoMoney · Post by **JoMoney** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:31 pm

Cautionary Tale wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:29 pm VWO is FINALLY over $50!

I'm selling

In the "US stocks Soar!" thread, stonks go up and people are "backing up the truck" to buy more.
In the ex-US stocks thread, people are backing up the truck to dump them.

.. I suppose that's classic "mean-reversion" vs "momentum" investing behavior

langlands · Post by **langlands** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:35 pm

000 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:24 pm Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?

Don't think so...at least not today (not counting out a longer-term rotation into value). TSLA, NIO, PLTR, all up. Chinese tech (KWEB) is up BIG (and was up big yesterday as well). FAANG was definitely down. But isn't FAANG a little out of fashion now? The cool kids only settle for P/E > 100.

Tingting1013 · Post by **Tingting1013** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 pm

langlands wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:35 pm
000 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:24 pm Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?
Don't think so...at least not today (not counting out a longer-term rotation into value). TSLA, NIO, PLTR, all up. Chinese tech (KWEB) is up BIG (and was up big yesterday as well). FAANG was definitely down. But isn't FAANG a little out of fashion now? The cool kids only settle for P/E > 100.

The real cool kids use revenue multiples, not earnings multiples

Samosa22 · Post by **Samosa22** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:44 pm

OP, If you want to have a more active thread, consider starting "ex-US Stocks in Free Fall".

Triple digit golfer · Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:54 pm

Only a few hundred pages to go!

2pedals · Post by **2pedals** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:58 pm

This thread will probably get locked, ref:

LadyGeek wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:51 am No, we're not going to have an international stock thread (need two: soaring and falling).

Please stay on-topic, which is the US stock market increasing.

nedsaid · Post by **nedsaid** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:21 am

2pedals wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:58 pm This thread will probably get locked, ref:

LadyGeek wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:51 am No, we're not going to have an international stock thread (need two: soaring and falling).

Please stay on-topic, which is the US stock market increasing.

They can't lock the ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar! thread until someone starts an ex-US Stocks in Free Fall thread, or is that ex-US Stocks Stocks in Freefall? Or ex-U.S. Stocks in Free Fall vs. ex-U.S. Stocks in Freefall. Can't remember. Anywho, this will be fun while it lasts. The possibilities are endless, particularly when the grammar and English Nazis get involved.

goodenyou · Post by **goodenyou** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:30 am

The reason ex-US is soaring is that I sold half of my position in international in November. I was sick and tired of it. True confession.

nedsaid · Post by **nedsaid** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:34 am

goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:30 am The reason ex-US is soaring is that I sold half of my position in international in November. I was sick and tired of it. True confession.

The dreaded "Nedsaid effect" strikes again.

goodenyou · Post by **goodenyou** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:37 am

nedsaid wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:34 am
goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:30 am The reason ex-US is soaring is that I sold half of my position in international in November. I was sick and tired of it. True confession.
The dreaded "Nedsaid effect" strikes again.

Yeah. We both have the "Reverse Midas Touch".

ImUrHuckleberry · Post by **ImUrHuckleberry** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:39 am

We received a large amount of cash (by our standards anyway) in the fall, and I was absolutely terrified to invest at our AA. I thought about DCA but we just ended up sticking it into the market at our AA in a lump sum. I think International may end up being our biggest winner this year just due to timing luck.

muffins14 · Post by **muffins14** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:46 am

I thought about making this thread as well but I didn’t see how to make it actionable.

Are the soaring and falling threads somehow actionable?

000 · Post by **000** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:50 am

langlands wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:35 pm
000 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:24 pm Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?
Don't think so...at least not today (not counting out a longer-term rotation into value). TSLA, NIO, PLTR, all up. Chinese tech (KWEB) is up BIG (and was up big yesterday as well). FAANG was definitely down. But isn't FAANG a little out of fashion now? The cool kids only settle for P/E > 100.

I figured they'd all be in MILN - 176.11 P/E

ImUrHuckleberry · Post by **ImUrHuckleberry** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:50 am

muffins14 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:46 am I thought about making this thread as well but I didn’t see how to make it actionable.

Are the soaring and falling threads somehow actionable?

No. I think they are allowed as threads to blow off a little steam or else the forum would be overrun in other threads with people trying to blow off steam.

Godot · Post by **Godot** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:51 am

muffins14 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:46 am I thought about making this thread as well but I didn’t see how to make it actionable.

Are the soaring and falling threads somehow actionable?

No, but they are a "tradition." For which, apparently, you are granted a waiver.

yules · Post by **yules** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:09 am

JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:25 pm Maybe just be happy ex-US stocks are up...
Why does it need to be a relative to US stocks competition?
Maybe a thread re-title too, for some people, US stocks are "foreign"

Because so many people on this board blast ex-US stocks and compare them to US stocks that it feels good when diversification works. No harm In letting OP take a victory lap

Yules

dkturner · Post by **dkturner** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:45 am

The recent outperformance of xUS stocks can be explained by a combination of (1) relative weakness of the US$ and (2) the, relative, value orientation of xUS stocks compared to US stocks. No mysteries to solve.

Stinky · Post by **Stinky** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:49 am

Samosa22 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:44 pm OP, If you want to have a more active thread, consider starting "ex-US Stocks in Free Fall".

In before the lock -

But I hope the lock doesn't happen. Because we need both ex-US "soaring" and "free fall" threads.

Resolved - I need to waste more time on this Forum in 2021. Ex-US threads will be a giant step toward meeting that resolution.

Cyclesafe · Post by **Cyclesafe** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:33 am

Stinky wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:49 am Resolved - I need to waste more time on this Forum in 2021. Ex-US threads will be a giant step toward meeting that resolution.

Your assistance to members trying to manage their annuities has been invaluable. I hope you indeed waste more time here in 2021.

VTIAX obviously offers diversification from VTSAX. And lately in a good way. For a change. Each has a different company mix, that operates within a different mix of economies, in a different mix of currencies. Most companies in both funds are international from a smaller to larger degree and in the long run ought to have similar returns - unless there will be something inherently exceptional about the US.

case_of_ennui · Post by **case_of_ennui** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:54 am

ex-US stocks certainly have been soaring lately. Pickup trucks are not as popular overseas so I have been backing up my cargo van instead.

Chip · Post by **Chip** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:04 am

Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 pm The real cool kids use revenue multiples, not earnings multiples

That's so year 2000.

Anon9001 · Post by **Anon9001** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:14 am

This could be mean reversion or this could be noise. I would warn anyone who is NOT living in USA to not tilt to US stocks. Japan was bigger than US stock market at 1980s and it crashed significantly to 7% of World Market Cap after that period. There is no guarantee that USA will not suffer the same fate. I would only suggest tilting to the country you are living in and that too by only (20% of portfolio) if tax laws don't discriminate between foreign and domestic assets. If they do a stronger tilt can be justified.

lostdog · Post by **lostdog** » Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:18 am

Europe in the red so far.

Will there be an opportunity to create the ex-US free fall thread today?

lostdog · Post by **lostdog** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 am

We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.

Stinky · Post by **Stinky** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:50 am

lostdog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 am We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.

What source do you use to get your “dollar plunging” information?

Thanks.

lostdog · Post by **lostdog** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:52 am

Stinky wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:50 am
lostdog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 am We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.
What source do you use to get your “dollar plunging” information?

Thanks.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

lostdog · Post by **lostdog** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:56 am

The currency section.

https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

Stinky · Post by **Stinky** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:58 am

lostdog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:52 am
Stinky wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:50 am
lostdog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 am We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.
What source do you use to get your “dollar plunging” information?

Thanks.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Thank you. I had never explored that deeply into MarketWatch.

theorist · Post by **theorist** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:20 am

FTSE 100 is certainly soaring today! Maybe someone’s happy that Brexit is proceeding with a deal, now that the fishing rights fracas has been smoothed over...

Tamalak · Post by **Tamalak** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:36 am

Holy crap

lostdog · Post by **lostdog** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:36 am

ImUrHuckleberry · Post by **ImUrHuckleberry** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:39 am

theorist wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:20 am FTSE 100 is certainly soaring today! Maybe someone’s happy that Brexit is proceeding with a deal, now that the fishing rights fracas has been smoothed over...

It had a big day last week too, or maybe it was two weeks ago now. Similar one day gains before giving up a little the next day.

livesoft · Post by **livesoft** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:00 am

Quick! Sell now and lock in your gains for 2021!

Triple digit golfer · Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:06 am

Wow, international is beating U.S. by about 2% today.

H-Town · Post by **H-Town** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:11 am

Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:06 am Wow, international is beating U.S. by about 2% today.

Show me the money!!!

Diversification baby! The only free lunch in investing.

stocknoob4111 · Post by **stocknoob4111** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:12 am

I had to do a double take to make sure I was reading it right, VEU up 1.6% today?

Perhaps this is the start of a trend? I am 17% International at the moment, I see Fidelity Freedom funds have been cranking up the International FFFFX is now 41% International... maybe they were right.

livesoft · Post by **livesoft** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am

This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.

H-Town · Post by **H-Town** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:18 am

livesoft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.

That sucks. Those who do Back door Roth will need to wait another day.

On the bright side, those who hold a healthy international allocation would benefit greatly. The 1.5% growth on the "old money" far exceeds the 1.5% on the $6,000 new money.

Anon9001 · Post by **Anon9001** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:19 am

Imagine getting excited over one day. Momentum itself from my understanding requires 6-12 months to play out.

H-Town · Post by **H-Town** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:21 am

Anon9001 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:19 am Imagine getting excited over one day. Momentum itself from my understanding requires 6-12 months to play out.

You must not frequently visit U.S. stock continue to soar thread.

Chrono Triggered · Post by **Chrono Triggered** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:25 am

Nice to see some gains outside the US. Makes my 50% allocation to it look genius for a change.

achillesheel · Post by **achillesheel** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:28 am

livesoft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.

Yes, that's what is happening to me.

Triple digit golfer · Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:31 am

achillesheel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:28 am
livesoft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.
Yes, that's what is happening to me.

Ditto. Just contributed $2,500. The other $3,500 will go in after next pay day.

Technically I should have been buying U.S. because my international allocation is 0.2% ahead of my AA, but I know that 401k contributions and taxable contributions go to U.S. so it'll catch up.

livesoft · Post by **livesoft** » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:34 am

Well, you could buy VNQ (real estate index) and outperform it for 2021 by 1.8%!!!!