ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

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sabhen
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ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by sabhen »

I wanted to start a thread as a counterweight to the US threads on this topic.

Foreign stocks have been beating US stocks (SPY) in the last 3 months by at least 6% (VEU) as of 12/30/2020.

ex-US stocks have been a laggard for a long time.

Is this a reversal to the mean?
Last edited by sabhen on Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:27 am, edited 4 times in total.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

don't know but i noticed the price per share of the total international stock market index fund finally reached (and beat) the price it was (previous) high I recorded back in 2018. The US has reached many new highs since 2018.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events.
PackersFan12
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by PackersFan12 »

VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
000
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by 000 »

Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?
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JoMoney
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JoMoney »

Maybe just be happy ex-US stocks are up...
Why does it need to be a relative to US stocks competition?
Maybe a thread re-title too, for some people, US stocks are "foreign" :wink:
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Cautionary Tale
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Cautionary Tale »

VWO is FINALLY over $50!

I'm selling
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JoMoney
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JoMoney »

Cautionary Tale wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:29 pm VWO is FINALLY over $50!

I'm selling
:D :D :D In the "US stocks Soar!" thread, stonks go up and people are "backing up the truck" to buy more.
In the ex-US stocks thread, people are backing up the truck to dump them. :twisted: :mrgreen: :annoyed
.. I suppose that's classic "mean-reversion" vs "momentum" investing behavior :wink:
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langlands
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by langlands »

000 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:24 pm Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?
Don't think so...at least not today (not counting out a longer-term rotation into value). TSLA, NIO, PLTR, all up. Chinese tech (KWEB) is up BIG (and was up big yesterday as well). FAANG was definitely down. But isn't FAANG a little out of fashion now? The cool kids only settle for P/E > 100.
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Tingting1013 »

langlands wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:35 pm
000 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:24 pm Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?
Don't think so...at least not today (not counting out a longer-term rotation into value). TSLA, NIO, PLTR, all up. Chinese tech (KWEB) is up BIG (and was up big yesterday as well). FAANG was definitely down. But isn't FAANG a little out of fashion now? The cool kids only settle for P/E > 100.
The real cool kids use revenue multiples, not earnings multiples
Samosa22
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Samosa22 »

OP, If you want to have a more active thread, consider starting "ex-US Stocks in Free Fall".
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Only a few hundred pages to go!
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2pedals
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by 2pedals »

This thread will probably get locked, ref:
LadyGeek wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:51 am No, we're not going to have an international stock thread (need two: soaring and falling).

Please stay on-topic, which is the US stock market increasing.
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nedsaid
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by nedsaid »

2pedals wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:58 pm This thread will probably get locked, ref:
LadyGeek wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:51 am No, we're not going to have an international stock thread (need two: soaring and falling).

Please stay on-topic, which is the US stock market increasing.
They can't lock the ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar! thread until someone starts an ex-US Stocks in Free Fall thread, or is that ex-US Stocks Stocks in Freefall? Or ex-U.S. Stocks in Free Fall vs. ex-U.S. Stocks in Freefall. Can't remember. Anywho, this will be fun while it lasts. The possibilities are endless, particularly when the grammar and English Nazis get involved.
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goodenyou
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by goodenyou »

The reason ex-US is soaring is that I sold half of my position in international in November. I was sick and tired of it. True confession. :D
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nedsaid
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by nedsaid »

goodenyou wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:30 am The reason ex-US is soaring is that I sold half of my position in international in November. I was sick and tired of it. True confession. :D
The dreaded "Nedsaid effect" strikes again.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by goodenyou »

nedsaid wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:34 am
goodenyou wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:30 am The reason ex-US is soaring is that I sold half of my position in international in November. I was sick and tired of it. True confession. :D
The dreaded "Nedsaid effect" strikes again.
Yeah. We both have the "Reverse Midas Touch".
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ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

We received a large amount of cash (by our standards anyway) in the fall, and I was absolutely terrified to invest at our AA. I thought about DCA but we just ended up sticking it into the market at our AA in a lump sum. I think International may end up being our biggest winner this year just due to timing luck.
muffins14
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by muffins14 »

I thought about making this thread as well but I didn’t see how to make it actionable.

Are the soaring and falling threads somehow actionable?
000
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by 000 »

langlands wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:35 pm
000 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:24 pm Maybe the smart money is moving out of meme tech stocks to where the good deals are available?
Don't think so...at least not today (not counting out a longer-term rotation into value). TSLA, NIO, PLTR, all up. Chinese tech (KWEB) is up BIG (and was up big yesterday as well). FAANG was definitely down. But isn't FAANG a little out of fashion now? The cool kids only settle for P/E > 100.
I figured they'd all be in MILN - 176.11 P/E :twisted:
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

muffins14 wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:46 am I thought about making this thread as well but I didn’t see how to make it actionable.

Are the soaring and falling threads somehow actionable?
No. I think they are allowed as threads to blow off a little steam or else the forum would be overrun in other threads with people trying to blow off steam.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Godot »

muffins14 wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:46 am I thought about making this thread as well but I didn’t see how to make it actionable.

Are the soaring and falling threads somehow actionable?
No, but they are a "tradition." For which, apparently, you are granted a waiver.
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yules
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by yules »

JoMoney wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:25 pm Maybe just be happy ex-US stocks are up...
Why does it need to be a relative to US stocks competition?
Maybe a thread re-title too, for some people, US stocks are "foreign" :wink:
Because so many people on this board blast ex-US stocks and compare them to US stocks that it feels good when diversification works. No harm In letting OP take a victory lap :happy

Yules
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by dkturner »

The recent outperformance of xUS stocks can be explained by a combination of (1) relative weakness of the US$ and (2) the, relative, value orientation of xUS stocks compared to US stocks. No mysteries to solve.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Stinky »

Samosa22 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:44 pm OP, If you want to have a more active thread, consider starting "ex-US Stocks in Free Fall".
In before the lock -

But I hope the lock doesn't happen. Because we need both ex-US "soaring" and "free fall" threads.

Resolved - I need to waste more time on this Forum in 2021. Ex-US threads will be a giant step toward meeting that resolution. :D
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Cyclesafe
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Cyclesafe »

Stinky wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:49 am Resolved - I need to waste more time on this Forum in 2021. Ex-US threads will be a giant step toward meeting that resolution. :D
Your assistance to members trying to manage their annuities has been invaluable. I hope you indeed waste more time here in 2021. :thumbsup

VTIAX obviously offers diversification from VTSAX. And lately in a good way. For a change. Each has a different company mix, that operates within a different mix of economies, in a different mix of currencies. Most companies in both funds are international from a smaller to larger degree and in the long run ought to have similar returns - unless there will be something inherently exceptional about the US.
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case_of_ennui
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by case_of_ennui »

ex-US stocks certainly have been soaring lately. Pickup trucks are not as popular overseas so I have been backing up my cargo van instead.
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Chip »

Tingting1013 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:38 pm The real cool kids use revenue multiples, not earnings multiples
That's so year 2000.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Anon9001 »

This could be mean reversion or this could be noise. I would warn anyone who is NOT living in USA to not tilt to US stocks. Japan was bigger than US stock market at 1980s and it crashed significantly to 7% of World Market Cap after that period. There is no guarantee that USA will not suffer the same fate. I would only suggest tilting to the country you are living in and that too by only (20% of portfolio) if tax laws don't discriminate between foreign and domestic assets. If they do a stronger tilt can be justified.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by lostdog »

Europe in the red so far.

Will there be an opportunity to create the ex-US free fall thread today?
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by lostdog »

We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 am We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.
What source do you use to get your “dollar plunging” information?

Thanks.
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lostdog
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:50 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 am We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.
What source do you use to get your “dollar plunging” information?

Thanks.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
lostdog
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by lostdog »

The currency section.

https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
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Stinky
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:52 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:50 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 am We might have some ex-US soaring today.

The dollar looks to be plunging.
What source do you use to get your “dollar plunging” information?

Thanks.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
Thank you. I had never explored that deeply into MarketWatch.
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theorist
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by theorist »

FTSE 100 is certainly soaring today! Maybe someone’s happy that Brexit is proceeding with a deal, now that the fishing rights fracas has been smoothed over...
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Tamalak »

Holy crap
lostdog
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by lostdog »

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

theorist wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:20 am FTSE 100 is certainly soaring today! Maybe someone’s happy that Brexit is proceeding with a deal, now that the fishing rights fracas has been smoothed over...
It had a big day last week too, or maybe it was two weeks ago now. Similar one day gains before giving up a little the next day.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by livesoft »

Quick! Sell now and lock in your gains for 2021!
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Wow, international is beating U.S. by about 2% today.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by H-Town »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:06 am Wow, international is beating U.S. by about 2% today.
:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag Show me the money!!!

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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

I had to do a double take to make sure I was reading it right, VEU up 1.6% today? :shock: Perhaps this is the start of a trend? I am 17% International at the moment, I see Fidelity Freedom funds have been cranking up the International FFFFX is now 41% International... maybe they were right.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by livesoft »

This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by H-Town »

livesoft wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.
That sucks. Those who do Back door Roth will need to wait another day.

On the bright side, those who hold a healthy international allocation would benefit greatly. The 1.5% growth on the "old money" far exceeds the 1.5% on the $6,000 new money.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Anon9001 »

Imagine getting excited over one day. Momentum itself from my understanding requires 6-12 months to play out.
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H-Town
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by H-Town »

Anon9001 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:19 am Imagine getting excited over one day. Momentum itself from my understanding requires 6-12 months to play out.
You must not frequently visit U.S. stock continue to soar thread.
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Chrono Triggered
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Chrono Triggered »

Nice to see some gains outside the US. Makes my 50% allocation to it look genius for a change.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by achillesheel »

livesoft wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.
Yes, that's what is happening to me.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

achillesheel wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:28 am
livesoft wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am This also means that anybody who contributes to their Roth IRA today and buys shares of an international mutual fund today will, by definition, trail the performance of international by about 1.5% for all of 2021 just by missing out on this single first day of 2021.
Yes, that's what is happening to me.
Ditto. Just contributed $2,500. The other $3,500 will go in after next pay day.

Technically I should have been buying U.S. because my international allocation is 0.2% ahead of my AA, but I know that 401k contributions and taxable contributions go to U.S. so it'll catch up. :)
livesoft
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by livesoft »

Well, you could buy VNQ (real estate index) and outperform it for 2021 by 1.8%!!!!
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