Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

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Phinance
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Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Phinance »

Bitcoin hit 23K, remind me again why I’m anti-Bitcoin? Background: I find Bitcoin and other crypto currencies to be pure speculation (digital gold), a way to hedge inflation (rapid stimulus money devaluing US dollar), and no income/dividend stream..Am I missing something? I need a wake-up call/cold shower..
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by JonnyDVM »

I don’t get it either, but I think we missed the boat.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
CMLAW1
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by CMLAW1 »

I will never forget...in January of 2011 I was 23 years old just out of college and had not a clue what to do with my [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] life. I decided to play online poker on a daily basis and wound up racking up a pretty nice profit of around 60k in 4 months.

A lot of my degenerate buddies at the time were talking up bitcoin big time. Many of them put a large chunk of there bankroll into it. I’ll never forget the day I was on one of those buying websites and I had loaded up $11,800 on there to buy Bitcoin. I had the transaction all ready and all I needed to do was press ‘enter’. Welp l never did and I think about that day every time someone reminds me how high the price is. I’m pretty sure it was like $11 or so at that point lol. Needless to say I’m doing fine but man I would have a lot more money right now lol
Last edited by CMLAW1 on Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Normchad
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Normchad »

I’m convinced it is a total scam and will go to zero.....

And I’m absolutely kicking myself for missing out on the whole thing......

Somebody mentioned that 95% of the coins are held by just 2% of coin holders. If that’s true, it wouldn’t be that hard for those folks to collude and drive prices up. I’m not saying that’s happening, but that level of concentration would concern me.....
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Anon9001 »

JonnyDVM wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:34 am I don’t get it either, but I think we missed the boat.
I doubt it the forum still thinks it as a scam so there is still room left to go. I would be highly cautious if the mainstream opinion here was positive towards Bitcoin as it means that the peak has been reached.
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Marseille07
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Marseille07 »

Normchad wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:39 am And I’m absolutely kicking myself for missing out on the whole thing......
It's not easy holding this thing for years. Besides, if one's really interested they would've jumped in at 16K not too long ago...already +43% since then.
Soon2BXProgrammer
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

Phinance wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:32 am Bitcoin hit 23K, remind me again why I’m anti-Bitcoin? Background: I find Bitcoin and other crypto currencies to be pure speculation (digital gold), a way to hedge inflation (rapid stimulus money devaluing US dollar), and no income/dividend stream..Am I missing something? I need a wake-up call/cold shower..
I personally would prefer to own productive assets outside of the US which provide a exchange rate hedge (US inflation). However, this approach is boring.
supalong52
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by supalong52 »

The price of tulip bulbs probably went higher when adjusted for inflation. It's just a fear of missing out manifesting itself.
gonefishing01
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by gonefishing01 »

Looking at past 6 months BTC is up 148%. TSLA is up 224%. The latter joins the S&P tomorrow. What’s crazy these days?
bg5
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by bg5 »

Indexing is gambling....there is no guarantee in anything.....look at Japan

Whether you invest in Bitcoin or Indexes its all the same thing.....dont fool yourself.

I would not go all in on Bitcoin but having 5% or less seems like a great idea to me.....this thing will be $50,000 by July at the latest......Bitcoin is here to stay
Soon2BXProgrammer
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

bg5 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:12 pm Indexing is gambling....there is no guarantee in anything.....look at Japan
This is why I'm a firm believer if you think that indexing is going to work at all, the only rational decision is to index the whole world.
bg5
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by bg5 »

Totally agree.....Many on here suggest being 80% Domestic and 20% international......Is that a gamble? Heck yeah

Indexing is totally a gamble and we could all lose our tails very easily

I doubt it will happen....but its a gamble
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1789
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by 1789 »

Phinance wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:32 am Bitcoin hit 23K, remind me again why I’m anti-Bitcoin? Background: I find Bitcoin and other crypto currencies to be pure speculation (digital gold), a way to hedge inflation (rapid stimulus money devaluing US dollar), and no income/dividend stream..Am I missing something? I need a wake-up call/cold shower..
Most think it will go to 100k but remember this was the same idea shared back in 2018 and BTC went down to 3k. Now i am betting it will go down to 1k.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)
Ed 2
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Ed 2 »

I don’t invest in things I don’t understand and make no sense to me. Maybe I am wrong but I am happy enough what I have . So, I don’t consider that I missed the boat that goes to nowhere from nowhere.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Freetime76
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Freetime76 »

Maybe I am confused? :confused

I google “cash in bitcoin” and the chart says 1 bitcoin is worth it’s worth 374 USD. Ok, fine.
But when I extend the chart to Max on the time (x axis), it looks like a downhill, pushing to the asymptote graph.

I.e. in Dec. 2017, a bitcoin was $3200.
On November 2, 2018, a bitcoin was $476.
...sort of bouncing around until present...
On February 7, 2020, a bitcoin was $474.78. And now a little under $400.

So, I guess I am not impressed?
Granted, I am not a very sophisticated investor.
cogito
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by cogito »

Freetime76 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:28 pm Maybe I am confused? :confused

I google “cash in bitcoin” and the chart says 1 bitcoin is worth it’s worth 374 USD. Ok, fine.
But when I extend the chart to Max on the time (x axis), it looks like a downhill, pushing to the asymptote graph.

I.e. in Dec. 2017, a bitcoin was $3200.
On November 2, 2018, a bitcoin was $476.
...sort of bouncing around until present...
On February 7, 2020, a bitcoin was $474.78. And now a little under $400.

So, I guess I am not impressed?
Granted, I am not a very sophisticated investor.
Bitcoin Cash =/= Bitcoin. Its a fork that has not been as successful as the original software. I get it, its confusing. :?
rockstar
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by rockstar »

This is a lottery ticket. If you want to buy a few tickets, go ahead. You don't have to commit a whole lot of cash. Best to try out lots of things to avoid regrets later.

Right now, I don't have any BTC. My lottery ticket is TQQQ.
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by alpine_boglehead »

bg5 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:12 pm Indexing is gambling....there is no guarantee in anything.....look at Japan

Whether you invest in Bitcoin or Indexes its all the same thing.....dont fool yourself.

I would not go all in on Bitcoin but having 5% or less seems like a great idea to me.....this thing will be $50,000 by July at the latest......Bitcoin is here to stay
There is no guarantee in anything. So should I invest my money in X because, hey, there's no guarantee in anything?

Japan was a very big bubble. And it had eye-popping returns for the 40 years running up to the peak in 1989, see the chart on Wikipedia. I'd happily have done the standard index dollar-cost-average into this bubble.

Maybe Bitcoin is at $50,000 by July. Maybe TSLA is at $2000 in July. Won't buy any of it (Tesla only in index funds). I'll go on happily fooling myself that if I invest in productive, innovative companies around the world I can expect get a decent (non-speculative) return.

As with all market timers - the problem is, when do you sell? At $30,000? At $100,000? Or when it's back at $25,000 because the bubble popped or another more useful crypto currency stole the show? I agree that it may have some room to run, because it's not present as much in the wider media than it was in late 2017. Or maybe the party will be over after Christmas ... who knows.

Where were all those pro-Bitcoin posters in early 2019 when Bitcoin was around $4000? Then would have been the time to buy ...

For all those Bitcoin aficionados - don't come to the a forum named "Bogleheads - Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle" and wonder why you get all this negative attitude when
John C Bogle (god bless him) wrote:What I would say is avoid bitcoin like the plague
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by JonnyDVM »

The thing is I have this bizarre preference for investing in tangible companies that produce goods or provide services. I can’t shake it.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
glock19
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by glock19 »

bg5 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:12 pm Indexing is gambling....there is no guarantee in anything.....look at Japan

Whether you invest in Bitcoin or Indexes its all the same thing.....dont fool yourself.

I would not go all in on Bitcoin but having 5% or less seems like a great idea to me.....this thing will be $50,000 by July at the latest......Bitcoin is here to stay
It always strikes me as unusual why every time gold, and now Bitcoin, pops up in a thread the terms speculation and gambling is always brought up. I've been an index fund investor for the past 20 years and I still view it as "part" gambling. To me, anything not 100% guaranteed to return your principal is speculation.

I know, I know, one looks at a chart of the markets for the past 100 years and we see a upward trend line interrupted by corrections, but overall providing a nice return for those who stay the course. But what about those that are not looking at a 100 year timeline?

I certainly don't equate investing in equities, especially index funds, as going for red or black at the table, but regardless of your time horizon, any major event could occur that could result in a major loss that would not be recovered in your life time. I feel a lot more comfortable with my position in VTI than I would in Bitcoin, but the day may come when I just might change my mind.
lostdog
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by lostdog »

JonnyDVM wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:47 pm The thing is I have this bizarre preference for investing in tangible companies that produce goods or provide services. I can’t shake it.
+1

:D :happy :sharebeer
cogito
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by cogito »

I am anti-Bitcoin and I bought quite a bit just for regret minimization. So far my regrets have been really minimized. :D
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Gauntlet »

bg5 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:12 pm Indexing is gambling....there is no guarantee in anything.....look at Japan

Whether you invest in Bitcoin or Indexes its all the same thing.....dont fool yourself.


This is not the correct way to look at it.

gambling = poker, black jack, powerball
speculating = gold, silver, currencies, art
investing = stocks, bonds, CDs

Folks should feel free to put their money where they want but to say investing in the stock market is the same as purchasing bitcoin is wrong.
Freetime76
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Freetime76 »

cogito wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:49 pm I am anti-Bitcoin and I bought quite a bit just for regret minimization. So far my regrets have been really minimized. :D
Excellent investment. :wink:
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White Coat Investor
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by White Coat Investor »

Lots of FOMO here.

If you can reach your financial goals without speculating in Bitcoin, why would you speculate in Bitcoin?

I told lots of people not to buy it the last time it was at $20K. Few seemed to listen. Then I told people when it was $3-6K that if they wanted to speculate in Bitcoin, now was the time. Few seemed to listen.

People are people, it seems.

Get a reasonable written plan and follow it. Bitcoin wasn't in my plan, so I haven't bought any. The plan still worked.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
bogledogle
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by bogledogle »

I am anti-bitcoin because the fed can't print it using their money printer 8-)
Soon2BXProgrammer
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

bogledogle wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:05 pm I am anti-bitcoin because the fed can't print it using their money printer 8-)
if you like the fed's money printer.. you should read/listen to https://www.amazon.com/Deficit-Myth-Mon ... 541736184/

it has opened my eyes a little bit. Not that i an convicted by every argument.. but it is interesting.
MrJones
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by MrJones »

bg5 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:18 pm Totally agree.....Many on here suggest being 80% Domestic and 20% international......Is that a gamble? Heck yeah

Indexing is totally a gamble and we could all lose our tails very easily

I doubt it will happen....but its a gamble
Of course. All of life is a gamble. There's literally nothing that's safe, not even gold. The interesting question is, which gamble offers the highest reward at the lowest risk. That's where indexing comes in.

If one is indexing either to get rich, or because they think it's the "safest" thing, they'll both be disappointed.
Freetime76
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Freetime76 »

cogito wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:33 pm
Freetime76 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:28 pm Maybe I am confused? :confused

I google “cash in bitcoin” and the chart says 1 bitcoin is worth it’s worth 374 USD. Ok, fine.
But when I extend the chart to Max on the time (x axis), it looks like a downhill, pushing to the asymptote graph.

I.e. in Dec. 2017, a bitcoin was $3200.
On November 2, 2018, a bitcoin was $476.
...sort of bouncing around until present...
On February 7, 2020, a bitcoin was $474.78. And now a little under $400.

So, I guess I am not impressed?
Granted, I am not a very sophisticated investor.
Bitcoin Cash =/= Bitcoin. Its a fork that has not been as successful as the original software. I get it, its confusing. :?
Thank you for explaining. Actionably, is there a hard limitation on trading bitcoin? I ask because I continued reading and Bitcoin can only process 7 transactions per second, was that right?? Ouch.
Also, at $23K, what am I supposed to buy with one coin? Or are the only real purchases on the dark web (ouch again).

I apologize if this is off-topic. However, I do not understand taking my $23K cold hard cash and putting it into one bitcoin. What would I buy? I cannot keep my passwords straight, how would I store it?? Didn’t someone pass away and a whole bunch of OPB (other people’s bitcoins) were locked out. Do you know how many times I click “forgot password”?

Ok, I’ll leave you alone - it is just waaaaaayy too complicated for me. I like my tech nice and simple.
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Phinance
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Phinance »

Yes this is FOMO (fear of missing out), you’re right, thanks for calling me out, ok I’m awake now :D
"Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify." -Thoreau
MakingBacon
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by MakingBacon »

I'm not "anti-Bitcoin" even though I've never seriously considered purchasing it myself, but I wouldn't buy it at this level. It's gone up too high too quickly imo.

Now does that mean it's not going significantly higher? No, of course not. I'm just speculating like eveyone else. That big of a rise from something that doesn't produce anything tangible makes me nervous though.
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ClevrChico
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by ClevrChico »

Those with bitcoin wealth will use it to buy products and services, which will be good for us index investors. I'll keep treating BTC prices as entertainment.
illumination
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by illumination »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:09 pm
bogledogle wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:05 pm I am anti-bitcoin because the fed can't print it using their money printer 8-)
if you like the fed's money printer.. you should read/listen to https://www.amazon.com/Deficit-Myth-Mon ... 541736184/

it has opened my eyes a little bit. Not that i an convicted by every argument.. but it is interesting.

Wouldn't every country easily be wealthy and prosperous if Modern Monetary Theory really worked? These ideas really aren't new or innovative, they've been tried before. It's almost like saying because we haven't driven off a cliff yet, that must mean the cliff doesn't really exist, so let's go faster.
Soon2BXProgrammer
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

illumination wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:26 pm
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:09 pm
bogledogle wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:05 pm I am anti-bitcoin because the fed can't print it using their money printer 8-)
if you like the fed's money printer.. you should read/listen to https://www.amazon.com/Deficit-Myth-Mon ... 541736184/

it has opened my eyes a little bit. Not that i an convicted by every argument.. but it is interesting.

Wouldn't every country easily be wealthy and prosperous if Modern Monetary Theory really worked? These ideas really aren't new or innovative, they've been tried before. It's almost like saying because we haven't driven off a cliff yet, that must mean the cliff doesn't really exist, so let's go faster.
No. Every country that has given up its ability to issue currency (Eurozone) or uses a foreign currency in its contracts (most of the 3rd world) or pegs its exchange rate to a foreign currency , (and a few other things), gives up too much of its monetary sovereignty, and can not deploy MMT.

Countries that can deploy MMT still have limits, but the limits are more limited (per MMT) to inflation, full employment, shortage of goods/services for the amount of money being spent.

I am not 100% bought in on all fronts but its worth the 6 hours (listening on 2x speed) for free from your library, to really understand the MMT perspective. If you invest the time, hit me up, i'd gladly discuss.

and regardless if we like it or not, with the Fed buying bonds which is a form of yield curve control, we are deploying MMT tools against our fiat currency. They are controlling not just the overnight rate, but the whole curve.

I am not sayings its a panacea, i'm merely saying its worth the time to be informed with an alternate view point.
cusetownusa
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by cusetownusa »

CMLAW1 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:37 am I will never forget...in January of 2011 I was 23 years old just out of college and had not a clue what to do with my [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] life. I decided to play online poker on a daily basis and wound up racking up a pretty nice profit of around 60k in 4 months.

A lot of my degenerate buddies at the time were talking up bitcoin big time. Many of them put a large chunk of there bankroll into it. I’ll never forget the day I was on one of those buying websites and I had loaded up $11,800 on there to buy Bitcoin. I had the transaction all ready and all I needed to do was press ‘enter’. Welp l never did and I think about that day every time someone reminds me how high the price is. I’m pretty sure it was like $11 or so at that point lol. Needless to say I’m doing fine but man I would have a lot more money right now lol
Don't feel bad, you would only have an additional $20 million right now. :wink:

I do this to myself sometimes as well...with hindsight it seems to obvious.
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Watty
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Watty »

Phinance wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:32 am I need a wake-up call/cold shower..
Take the plunge and buy $100 of bitcoin then try to actually spend it somewhere.

If you can find someplace that will actually take bitcoin directly (good luck with that) then buy something legal with it that you want, then pay for it with bitcoin.

Fill out the tax form to document the capital gain or loss on the bitcoin transaction.

I suspect that will prove to you that it is not really a digital currency.
drumboy256
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by drumboy256 »

I am allocating 15% of my international index directly to Bitcoin as it is going nowhere but up. It works as a store of value, payment method, hedge against global financial institutions and is The Godfather of crypto.

Why people don’t get it... I mean, maybe they don’t get how to use an iPhone. 🤷‍♂️
Promise is one thing. Fulfilling that promise is quite another. - Sir Alex Ferguson
illumination
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by illumination »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:31 pm
illumination wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:26 pm
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:09 pm
bogledogle wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:05 pm I am anti-bitcoin because the fed can't print it using their money printer 8-)
if you like the fed's money printer.. you should read/listen to https://www.amazon.com/Deficit-Myth-Mon ... 541736184/

it has opened my eyes a little bit. Not that i an convicted by every argument.. but it is interesting.

Wouldn't every country easily be wealthy and prosperous if Modern Monetary Theory really worked? These ideas really aren't new or innovative, they've been tried before. It's almost like saying because we haven't driven off a cliff yet, that must mean the cliff doesn't really exist, so let's go faster.
No. Every country that has given up its ability to issue currency (Eurozone) or uses a foreign currency in its contracts (most of the 3rd world) or pegs its exchange rate to a foreign currency , (and a few other things), gives up too much of its monetary sovereignty, and can not deploy MMT.

Countries that can deploy MMT still have limits, but the limits are more limited (per MMT) to inflation, full employment, shortage of goods/services for the amount of money being spent.

I am not 100% bought in on all fronts but its worth the 6 hours (listening on 2x speed) for free from your library, to really understand the MMT perspective. If you invest the time, hit me up, i'd gladly discuss.

and regardless if we like it or not, with the Fed buying bonds which is a form of yield curve control, we are deploying MMT tools against our fiat currency. They are controlling not just the overnight rate, but the whole curve.

I am not sayings its a panacea, i'm merely saying its worth the time to be informed with an alternate view point.

I'm well informed on it, and I put it in the same pile as a Universal Basic Income (also not new). Not the forum to debate politics, so I'll leave it at that.
Ed 2
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Ed 2 »

White Coat Investor wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:00 pm Lots of FOMO here.

If you can reach your financial goals without speculating in Bitcoin, why would you speculate in Bitcoin?

I told lots of people not to buy it the last time it was at $20K. Few seemed to listen. Then I told people when it was $3-6K that if they wanted to speculate in Bitcoin, now was the time. Few seemed to listen.

People are people, it seems.

Get a reasonable written plan and follow it. Bitcoin wasn't in my plan, so I haven't bought any. The plan still worked.
+1. I used to say to many too, seams more you tell - more resistance to listen so I stopped tell anything to anyone. They think about “ missing the boat”. Look like Tesla stock and Bitcoin is the new cult now until the tide goes out ;)
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Swivelguy
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Swivelguy »

I can only speak for myself, but I am anti-Bitcoin because it is an ecological disaster, emitting 22 million tons of CO2 annually. $1 invested in bitcoin emits about as much CO2 as $5 invested into gasoline that you burn in a drum in your backyard. Annually, so don't forget to burn $5 of gas next year, too.
RobLyons
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by RobLyons »

Personally, I was never anti-Bitcoin or anti-crypto. I took a gamble with ripple and won significantly. Then was hacked and lost it all. Years before, I traded penny stocks. Huge gains. Huge losses. While the gains are enjoyable, the losses are devastating. They lead to doubt, fear, inactivity, bigger gambles..

Hard lessons to learn. But also those situations lead me to this style of investing which acted like an anti anxiety pill. So while I'm surprised Bitcoin has gone to 23k, I remember the hype, the huge spikes and huge dips, and congratulate those that gambled heavily and won, but I'm not jumping in now at an all time high to gamble.

Even if I "lose" out on a lot of profit. To me its similar to those that spend their life savings on XYZ and either win big or lose big. I will continue investing in this manner, enjoying slow marginal profits year after year like paint drying, and won't kick myself no matter how high bitcoin goes.
"Great parenting sets the foundation for a better world"
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3wood
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by 3wood »

Ed 2 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:35 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:00 pm Lots of FOMO here.

If you can reach your financial goals without speculating in Bitcoin, why would you speculate in Bitcoin?

I told lots of people not to buy it the last time it was at $20K. Few seemed to listen. Then I told people when it was $3-6K that if they wanted to speculate in Bitcoin, now was the time. Few seemed to listen.

People are people, it seems.

Get a reasonable written plan and follow it. Bitcoin wasn't in my plan, so I haven't bought any. The plan still worked.
+1. I used to say to many too, seams more you tell - more resistance to listen so I stopped tell anything to anyone. They think about “ missing the boat”. Look like Tesla stock and Bitcoin is the new cult now until the tide goes out ;)
The 2017 run up was retail investors and FOMO. This seems different. Institutional investors, banks, Fortune 500 Co's, billionaires, family offices, foreign gov'ts, Greyscale, PayPal, Square, etc, not to mention all the retail investors and fomo they have. All deep pockets piling in with new reports daily about new multi million $ and even billion $ purchases of Bitcoin. There will only ever be 21 million BTC. It is SCARCE. It is estimated that 4=6 million are lost forever from lost keys and passwords, computers that stored them and were tossed. Early on BTC was worth pennies and not valued. Only 900 are mined daily. Just Square and PayPal can absorb those. I believe those who are saying it is becoming the new gold. A store of value that can not be debased. The big boys are paying attention. Maybe many of the the Bogleheads were wrong (not all, but I remember reading a lot of negativity on BTC like this thread). Maybe basing your investments in fiat will turn out to be the biggest problem and index funds will become the greatest value trap in history.
muddgirl
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by muddgirl »

I understand Bitcoin, what I don't understand is Tether, which purports to always equal 1 USDT = 1 USD and does some shady shady stuff with bitcoin. By the time I understand Tether there will be another pump and dump scheme that I will need to figure out.

The real breakthrough of Bitcoin is that unlike Tulips or beanie babies or other physical commodities, it appears that it can be endlessly pumped and endlessly dumped. At least so far.
Impatience
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Impatience »

I think I’ll start DCA’ing into Bitcoin in 2021. Maybe $100 a month.
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willthrill81
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by willthrill81 »

I strongly considered buying BTC when it was $600. I would have only put about $4k into it, but that would now be worth $153k less capital gains tax. Oh well. We've been very blessed with our investments, and if you start playing the 'what if' game, you'll drive yourself crazy.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Marseille07
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Marseille07 »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:41 pm I strongly considered buying BTC when it was $600. I would have only put about $4k into it, but that would now be worth $153k less capital gains tax. Oh well. We've been very blessed with our investments, and if you start playing the 'what if' game, you'll drive yourself crazy.
I remember the days when BTC jumping from $4 to $20 was a big deal. I don't really regret it though, knowing myself I would've sold way before 23K anyway; not much point lamenting how much it would have been had I bought & held.
Ed 2
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by Ed 2 »

3wood wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:35 pm
Ed 2 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:35 pm
White Coat Investor wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:00 pm Lots of FOMO here.

If you can reach your financial goals without speculating in Bitcoin, why would you speculate in Bitcoin?

I told lots of people not to buy it the last time it was at $20K. Few seemed to listen. Then I told people when it was $3-6K that if they wanted to speculate in Bitcoin, now was the time. Few seemed to listen.

People are people, it seems.

Get a reasonable written plan and follow it. Bitcoin wasn't in my plan, so I haven't bought any. The plan still worked.
+1. I used to say to many too, seams more you tell - more resistance to listen so I stopped tell anything to anyone. They think about “ missing the boat”. Look like Tesla stock and Bitcoin is the new cult now until the tide goes out ;)
The 2017 run up was retail investors and FOMO. This seems different. Institutional investors, banks, Fortune 500 Co's, billionaires, family offices, foreign gov'ts, Greyscale, PayPal, Square, etc, not to mention all the retail investors and fomo they have. All deep pockets piling in with new reports daily about new multi million $ and even billion $ purchases of Bitcoin. There will only ever be 21 million BTC. It is SCARCE. It is estimated that 4=6 million are lost forever from lost keys and passwords, computers that stored them and were tossed. Early on BTC was worth pennies and not valued. Only 900 are mined daily. Just Square and PayPal can absorb those. I believe those who are saying it is becoming the new gold. A store of value that can not be debased. The big boys are paying attention. Maybe many of the the Bogleheads were wrong (not all, but I remember reading a lot of negativity on BTC like this thread). Maybe basing your investments in fiat will turn out to be the biggest problem and index funds will become the greatest value trap in history.
We have been there back in 2007-2008. . Back than it called “derivatives “ . Big boys were buying and big boys were asking for bail out later on. Human nature can’t be changed. The question is how much is enough?
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
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jabberwockOG
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by jabberwockOG »

Universal payment systems need to be scalable. Bitcoin is not scalable. Avoid.
JBTX
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by JBTX »

If I had gotten in when DW said I should, around $10k, we would have made $13k. In any case I can't imagine I'd have put in more than $10k. So I missed out on $13k of bubble inflation? It's peanuts in the scheme of things.
ohboy!
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Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

Post by ohboy! »

Impatience wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:37 pm I think I’ll start DCA’ing into Bitcoin in 2021. Maybe $100 a month.
Coinbase has auto buy setup option. But fees are lame. With price swings it would be good to have it setup automatically to avoid some emotional input. Are there other good options for auto buy? I usually buy on CoinbasePro.
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