Anyone here mostly cash in portfolio?

[Marseille07]

Yea, I'm mostly cash and it's killing me.

I'm 79 in a month, and I have "won the game" with more money than I need, but it really goes against my nature to have 90% of my portfolio in cash (money markets and CDs) and some short-term bond funds. But, like most folks, that don't want a big stock allocation, I have no clue as to what to do with my money that is presently returning much less than inflation. Investing in medium or long term bond funds seems unwise in this low interest rate environment. So, what to do? I don't expect anyone to have an answer because there is none.

I see almost nothing in the news about how the low, low interest rates are hammering retired folks that expected to make more than inflation off of their money without taking the risks associated with stocks. For you young people out there, when you are 75 or older, a big downturn in the stock market is very scary because you may not have 5, 10, 15 or more years to recoup.

This point is lost on far too many. My answer is to just maintain an allocation to stocks, but I feel where you’re coming from.

If they have more money than they need, it's fine to stay in cash. No reason to risk & lose life savings.

[HippoSir]

If they have more money than they need, it's fine to stay in cash. No reason to risk & lose life savings.

Cash is not risk free, it is exposed to significant inflationary risk.

[kareysue]

Since the March lows I've made a mistake of selling almost all of my equities. With everything up now, I realized I made a big mistake. Anyone in a similar situation and what did you end up doing?

Kareysue,

I took the liberty of searching your previous posts here. What I see is someone who is undisciplined without an investment plan and seems to over react to market volatility and hype. Your first post was in the middle of the 2008 downturn where you asked about going to 100% cash. Then not another post for 7 years. That should have been a great learning experience, but it appears the lesson was lost again. I also noticed you asked about shorting the market this year on March 23, at the very bottom of this current downturn. You are still in cash and have missed a tremendous run up in equity value. You should now realize that your instincts can't be trusted.

You are young, but you can't afford to keep duplicating these mistakes. Please learn from this experience. Spend more time here learning how to write an Investment Policy Statement and develop an asset allocation you can stay the course with (its not 100% equities). Learn how to rebalance when the market gives you the opportunity to sell assets at a high price and buy when they are low (not the other way around as you have done previously). Your previous posts also seem to show a propensity towards individual stocks. For you I truly believe the 3 fund portfolio would benefit you and give you a solid foundation upon which to build.

I apologize if this seems harsh, but offer this only in your best interest.

Thanks for the useful advice. For some reason I am always paranoid about stocks the reason being is because I invested in the reserve money market fund which lost value, wachovia which also lost a lot of value and washington mutual. I became very sad after that. I invested in high yielders before 2008 but after this experience I became very paranoid about stocks. Lately, I've been investing in vanguard total market, att and naspers but still small portion of my portfolio. But I am slowly trying to put more in

[kareysue]

If they have more money than they need, it's fine to stay in cash. No reason to risk & lose life savings.

Cash is not risk free, it is exposed to significant inflationary risk.

That is somewhat true but in the past 20 years inflation has been null. I wonder if inflation will ever come back. I invested in ibonds and inflation treasuries and they have done nothing for me. I've never seen inflation so low in the history of the financial world. Usually interest rates climb back but this time in the past 20 years it has remained low and I think due to the internet it will be this way for sometime

[gr7070]

If they have more money than they need, it's fine to stay in cash. No reason to risk & lose life savings.

Cash is not risk free, it is exposed to significant inflationary risk.

That is somewhat true but in the past 20 years inflation has been null. I wonder if inflation will ever come back. I invested in ibonds and inflation treasuries and they have done nothing for me.

Why are you ignoring what equities have done the past 20 years? The past 100 years?

And the bond market on the whole the past 20 years?

I guarantee inflation will come back. So will high interest rates, equities will plummet and explode, interest rates will skyrocket and go negative, a recession maybe two, new technology, markets emerge, many other wonderful and scary things around the globe...

It will all happen; again. Similarly to the past, but also different. Hopefully we live long enough to see it happen a third time even.

None of those things will matter if you've lived beneath your means and invested (and held) diversely in stocks and bonds.

[HippoSir]

That is somewhat true but in the past 20 years inflation has been null. I wonder if inflation will ever come back. I invested in ibonds and inflation treasuries and they have done nothing for me. I've never seen inflation so low in the history of the financial world. Usually interest rates climb back but this time in the past 20 years it has remained low and I think due to the internet it will be this way for sometime

In addition to the other concerns expressed about your investment approach mentioned in this thread, this shows you are exhibiting significant recency bias. The one thing we know is that things change, often unpredictably and rapidly.

[ruralavalon]

Sometimes Bogleheads do suggest bond ladders or CD ladders, they are not for everyone. At one time I had a ladder of zero coupon Treasuries, but dropped it for intermediate-term bond funds.

Historically short-term and intermediate-term Treasurys have been the best diversifier of a stock pirtfolio. Historically total bond market funds have been the second best diversifier of a stock portfolio.

Morningstar (8/20/2029), "The Best Diversifiers for Your Equity Portfolio", link.

Morningstar (7/8/2020), "What's the Best Diversifier for Stocks?" , link.

If you want to use past data, Long Term Treasuries have been the best diversifier for a US stock portfolio; see vineviz's posts on this.

All these retirees complaining about reinvesting at much lower yields clearly could have locked in higher yields (both higher at the time of past purchase, and higher than today) with long term bonds. The fact that they're reinvesting the principal at all (not spending it) means they actually had a long duration.

If course I want to use in "past data". You can only find data in the past. Statements about future events are not statements of fact, just opinions.

I should have said that Treasury bonds were the best diversifiers of an equity portfolio, and that total bond market index funds were the second best diversifiers of an equity portfolio.

I was responding to your earlier post which said

It would be good for the board to stop telling people there is no risk in Cash / Treasury Bonds and Total Bond Market is the best stock diversifier.

The first linked article indictates that intermediate-term and short-term Treasurys provided almost as much diversification benefit as long-term Treasurys.

. . . we didn't have to venture into long-term Treasuries to capture good diversification relative to equities. Short- and intermediate-term Treasuries did the job, too. And the reason that's important is because short- and intermediate-term Treasuries are much less volatile than long-term Treasuries. The main reason most investors don't own long-term Treasuries is that they tend to have almost equity-like volatility. Well, the good news is that you don't have to venture into them to get good diversification for your equity portfolio.

The second linked article links to correlation matrices for one-, three-, five-, 10-, and 15-year correlation data. The matrices uniformly demonstrate negative correlations between all durations of Treasurys and the S&P 500. The negative correlations were nearly equal for all durations.

More to the point about total bond market index funds, the correlation matrices uniformly demonstrate that total bond market index funds ("BBBarg US Agg Bond") were the next best diversifiers after Treasurys, with uniformly very low or negative correlations to the S&P 500 index.

So it's correct for members to recommend total bond market index funds as good diversification for a stock portfolio.

I don't believe I have ever said that "there is no risk in Cash / Treasury Bonds and Total Bond Market is the best stock diversifier", or anything like that. I don't recall other posters making those claims. (OK, a few people say that cash is safe.)

[Always passive]

If you are so concerned about a market correction, consider the SWAN ETF. 90% in treasuries with 10 year duration and 10% in the S&P 500 through options.

[anoop]

If you are so concerned about a market correction, consider the SWAN ETF. 90% in treasuries with 10 year duration and 10% in the S&P 500 through options.

Interesting product, but ER is quite high at 0.49%.

[Always passive]

If you are so concerned about a market correction, consider the SWAN ETF. 90% in treasuries with 10 year duration and 10% in the S&P 500 through options.

Interesting product, but ER is quite high at 0.49%.

The ETF has done the job beautifully notwithstanding the ER. You can get older data since (I think) 2006.
Further, if you have experience with options, it is extremely easy to construct the product by yourself.

[GaryA505]

I just had a thought (first one today). Is the SWAN ETF using the same method as insurance companies use being their indexed annuities, so that they can offer the downside protection with limited upside? To be clear, I don't own any indexed annuities nor would I consider buying one. I'm just curious if SWAN is using the same method.

[Explorer]

I just had a thought (first one today). Is the SWAN ETF using the same method as insurance companies use being their indexed annuities, so that they can offer the downside protection with limited upside? To be clear, I don't own any indexed annuities nor would I consider buying one. I'm just curious if SWAN is using the same method.

Gary - I looked through the Amplify ETF website for SWAN.https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... on2_2=100 With 90% US Treasuries and 10% SPY long options, interesting that it produced a steadier outcome since its inception in 2019. It protects you on downside and it caps you on the upside. So, it does look like it is acting like indexed annuities.
I am not bothered by the 0.49% ER (financial advisors cost you a heck of a lot more than that). I am going to try this ETF for a couple of years.

I also like the fact it does not throw off much income so it is a good holding for taxable accounts.

[rockstar]

I'm roughly 97/3 right now with the 3 between my checking account and some CDs that mature in Feb. I was roughly 70/30 before March.

Why didn't you buy back into the market?

[rockstar]

I am not risking one dollar until I understand what the future holds.

Please let us know when you find out

I am 38. My guess is when retirement age folks start running from equities because they don't have enough time to recover. I am fine with my 0.5% until then. Who has been buying stocks over the last ten years? Who is actually buying equities now?

I am.

[GaryA505]

I just had a thought (first one today). Is the SWAN ETF using the same method as insurance companies use being their indexed annuities, so that they can offer the downside protection with limited upside? To be clear, I don't own any indexed annuities nor would I consider buying one. I'm just curious if SWAN is using the same method.

Gary - I looked through the Amplify ETF website for SWAN.https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... on2_2=100 With 90% US Treasuries and 10% SPY long options, interesting that it produced a steadier outcome since its inception in 2019. It protects you on downside and it caps you on the upside. So, it does look like it is acting like indexed annuities.
I am not bothered by the 0.49% ER (financial advisors cost you a heck of a lot more than that). I am going to try this ETF for a couple of years.

I also like the fact it does not throw off much income so it is a good holding for taxable accounts.

I was wondering about that too, as I'd like to hold some SWAN in my taxable account. I was also thinking of pairing it with some IVOL, but I don't know how good IVOL looks for a taxable account.

[Explorer]

I just had a thought (first one today). Is the SWAN ETF using the same method as insurance companies use being their indexed annuities, so that they can offer the downside protection with limited upside? To be clear, I don't own any indexed annuities nor would I consider buying one. I'm just curious if SWAN is using the same method.

Gary - I looked through the Amplify ETF website for SWAN.https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... on2_2=100 With 90% US Treasuries and 10% SPY long options, interesting that it produced a steadier outcome since its inception in 2019. It protects you on downside and it caps you on the upside. So, it does look like it is acting like indexed annuities.
I am not bothered by the 0.49% ER (financial advisors cost you a heck of a lot more than that). I am going to try this ETF for a couple of years.

I also like the fact it does not throw off much income so it is a good holding for taxable accounts.

I was wondering about that too, as I'd like to hold some SWAN in my taxable account. I was also thinking of pairing it with some IVOL, but I don't know how good IVOL looks for a taxable account.

IVOL has almost 1% ER.. I am going to hold off on that. I am going to try SWAN though...

[hudson]

Yea, I'm mostly cash and it's killing me.

I'm 79 in a month, and I have "won the game" with more money than I need, but it really goes against my nature to have 90% of my portfolio in cash (money markets and CDs) and some short-term bond funds. But, like most folks, that don't want a big stock allocation, I have no clue as to what to do with my money that is presently returning much less than inflation. Investing in medium or long term bond funds seems unwise in this low interest rate environment. So, what to do? I don't expect anyone to have an answer because there is none.

I see almost nothing in the news about how the low, low interest rates are hammering retired folks that expected to make more than inflation off of their money without taking the risks associated with stocks. For you young people out there, when you are 75 or older, a big downturn in the stock market is very scary because you may not have 5, 10, 15 or more years to recoup.

Van,
Me too...all fixed income....age 73....it's not killing me. I'm OK at 100% fixed.
When CDs mature, what's my plan?
TIPS.....I'm 73. At 76, I'm considering using individual TIPS or TIPS funds or a combination in a liability matching portfolio.
....maybe like this? viewtopic.php?p=5379410#p5379410
OR...
I'll hold my nose and go with the best available 5-10 year CD.
You've probably already read W. Bernstein's Ages of the Investor? viewtopic.php?p=5372762#p5372762

[goblue100]

Cash is not risk free, it is exposed to significant inflationary risk.

That is somewhat true but in the past 20 years inflation has been null. I wonder if inflation will ever come back. I invested in ibonds and inflation treasuries and they have done nothing for me. I've never seen inflation so low in the history of the financial world. Usually interest rates climb back but this time in the past 20 years it has remained low and I think due to the internet it will be this way for sometime

Just for grins, I used this inflation calculator:
https://www.rl360.com/row/tools/inflati ... ulator.htm

To calculate the effect of 20 years of 2% inflation, which I think is about where we have been. You may say its nothing, but $10,000 will only buy $6,500 worth of goods in 20 years. I think this is why some amount of stocks is needed to try to keep up. If inflation is 3% you lose almost half of your purchasing power.

[Always passive]

A few days ago I initiated a similar post, I just forgot the existence of this one. In my mind, I have been thinking about the subject of stocks and why I need them. Maybe this is another example that those in retirement debating on the subject can use to make their own decision.
I am 72 years old and given the size of my portfolio, I think that I could afford to hold it all in fixed income assets and living comfortably for whatever is left of our life. But, given the economic situation of my children (it seems that now is so much harder than when I was their age), not bad, but not stable, I have felt that leaving them some wealth would be of great value to them. So, instead of holding 30 years worth of secured income like William Bernstein advices, in my case via TIPS, I only have 15. The rest of the portfolio, about 40% is in stocks (global indexes) and 5% in gold. Looking at history, I feel that the risk that I am taking is very small, if any. My only concern since I live overseas, is the dollar, which has lost 1/3 of its value relative to the currency that I live from, in the past 15 years. All my savings are at Fidelity, in US$, and I have not come up with a good solution for the currency.

[Always passive]

BTW, I found this article. It claims holding some stocks and those that either yield dividend and/or have low volatility....
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/1 ... -the-game/

[hudson]

BTW, I found this article. It claims holding some stocks and those that either yield dividend and/or have low volatility....
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/1 ... -the-game/

Good article by Ben Carlson; he could be a Boglehead.
I agree that holding stocks can lower your risks over the long term.
That doesn't mean that I'm going to buy any. If the market dropped 50% today, I might think, "Wow a great buying opportunity, I'll buy one share of VTI! I would think again and pass on the "opportunity." I think I'm allergic to stocks.

In the article, Ben Carlson said that Vanguard Total Bond yielded 1.15%. I know he quoted the SEC Yield. Total bond is actually paying out 2%. (I completely understand the difference between SEC and distribution yields.) (Long term investors can expect 1.15% for the expected duration of the fund; a short term investor can expect to get paid an annual rate of about 2% on Dec. 31st.)

[checkyourmath]

I am not risking one dollar until I understand what the future holds.

Please let us know when you find out

I am 38. My guess is when retirement age folks start running from equities because they don't have enough time to recover. I am fine with my 0.5% until then. Who has been buying stocks over the last ten years? Who is actually buying equities now?

I am.

The stock market is up 20 percent because of your purchasing power. No wealth inequality problem there. I am so scared of inflation.

[gr7070]

I am not risking one dollar until I understand what the future holds.

Please let us know when you find out

I am 38. My guess is when retirement age folks start running from equities because they don't have enough time to recover. I am fine with my 0.5% until then. Who has been buying stocks over the last ten years? Who is actually buying equities now?

I am.

I am so scared of inflation.

With 0% equities you should be.

Time to get on board with modern portfolio theory.

While no one has a crystal ball, and equities have risk; a best practice has been developed and tested from many decades of research and a century or two of data to protect oneself from all the financial risks - equities and inflation and many others.

Irrationally avoiding equities actually increases your total risk, even if it removes equities risk.

[checkyourmath]

There is eventually going to be inflation that is obvious, but currently it is at 0.12% so I am not too worried. I can actually see that number coming down a bit maybe to 0.06847%. Most dollars are held outside the US. How many years at 0.12% until I lose half the value of my money? Is it before or after Telsa's PE ratio comes down from 1220 to 25?

[rockstar]

I am not risking one dollar until I understand what the future holds.

Please let us know when you find out

I am 38. My guess is when retirement age folks start running from equities because they don't have enough time to recover. I am fine with my 0.5% until then. Who has been buying stocks over the last ten years? Who is actually buying equities now?

I am.

The stock market is up 20 percent because of your purchasing power. No wealth inequality problem there. I am so scared of inflation.

Why? We're seeing the liquidity trap in action these days.

[angelescrest]

Since the March lows I've made a mistake of selling almost all of my equities. With everything up now, I realized I made a big mistake. Anyone in a similar situation and what did you end up doing?

Kareysue,

I took the liberty of searching your previous posts here. What I see is someone who is undisciplined without an investment plan and seems to over react to market volatility and hype. Your first post was in the middle of the 2008 downturn where you asked about going to 100% cash. Then not another post for 7 years. That should have been a great learning experience, but it appears the lesson was lost again. I also noticed you asked about shorting the market this year on March 23, at the very bottom of this current downturn. You are still in cash and have missed a tremendous run up in equity value. You should now realize that your instincts can't be trusted.

You are young, but you can't afford to keep duplicating these mistakes. Please learn from this experience. Spend more time here learning how to write an Investment Policy Statement and develop an asset allocation you can stay the course with (its not 100% equities). Learn how to rebalance when the market gives you the opportunity to sell assets at a high price and buy when they are low (not the other way around as you have done previously). Your previous posts also seem to show a propensity towards individual stocks. For you I truly believe the 3 fund portfolio would benefit you and give you a solid foundation upon which to build.

I apologize if this seems harsh, but offer this only in your best interest.

Thanks for the useful advice. For some reason I am always paranoid about stocks the reason being is because I invested in the reserve money market fund which lost value, wachovia which also lost a lot of value and washington mutual. I became very sad after that. I invested in high yielders before 2008 but after this experience I became very paranoid about stocks. Lately, I've been investing in vanguard total market, att and naspers but still small portion of my portfolio. But I am slowly trying to put more in

My friend, kudos for responding to this come to J——s moment. But with all due respect, have the comments sunk in? You are admitting being paranoid, and have acted accordingly. So why not make a plan? “Slowly trying to put more in” is not the answer. Pulling out, going back in (repeat x10) won’t work. Post your financials here, and let the BGs help you create a proper plan starting with the right asset allocation. Maybe you need to be 30/70 through the next recession to build some tolerance for volatility. Stop watching stock market news. Stop doing anything (once your plan is in place) and stay the course. Find a friend you can talk to when you feel like taking action, who knows your plan and can help you keep accountable.

[Marseille07]

Since the March lows I've made a mistake of selling almost all of my equities. With everything up now, I realized I made a big mistake. Anyone in a similar situation and what did you end up doing?

Kareysue,

I took the liberty of searching your previous posts here. What I see is someone who is undisciplined without an investment plan and seems to over react to market volatility and hype. Your first post was in the middle of the 2008 downturn where you asked about going to 100% cash. Then not another post for 7 years. That should have been a great learning experience, but it appears the lesson was lost again. I also noticed you asked about shorting the market this year on March 23, at the very bottom of this current downturn. You are still in cash and have missed a tremendous run up in equity value. You should now realize that your instincts can't be trusted.

You are young, but you can't afford to keep duplicating these mistakes. Please learn from this experience. Spend more time here learning how to write an Investment Policy Statement and develop an asset allocation you can stay the course with (its not 100% equities). Learn how to rebalance when the market gives you the opportunity to sell assets at a high price and buy when they are low (not the other way around as you have done previously). Your previous posts also seem to show a propensity towards individual stocks. For you I truly believe the 3 fund portfolio would benefit you and give you a solid foundation upon which to build.

I apologize if this seems harsh, but offer this only in your best interest.

Thanks for the useful advice. For some reason I am always paranoid about stocks the reason being is because I invested in the reserve money market fund which lost value, wachovia which also lost a lot of value and washington mutual. I became very sad after that. I invested in high yielders before 2008 but after this experience I became very paranoid about stocks. Lately, I've been investing in vanguard total market, att and naspers but still small portion of my portfolio. But I am slowly trying to put more in

My friend, kudos for responding to this come to J——s moment. But with all due respect, have the comments sunk in? You are admitting being paranoid, and have acted accordingly. So why not make a plan? “Slowly trying to put more in” is not the answer. Pulling out, going back in (repeat x10) won’t work. Post your financials here, and let the BGs help you create a proper plan starting with the right asset allocation. Maybe you need to be 30/70 through the next recession to build some tolerance for volatility. Stop watching stock market news. Stop doing anything (once your plan is in place) and stay the course. Find a friend you can talk to when you feel like taking action, who knows your plan and can help you keep accountable.

Trying to change the OP is commendable, but investing just isn't for everyone. Some people aren't very good, and worse, keep losing. If they don't want to invest then I think it's fine holding cash or whatever they want to hold.

[LeslieSmiley]

My inclination was to sell my equities! The idea didn't seem so nutty at the time, with articles like "Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally" published May 12th by Bloomberg. At a certain point I did sin by selling some stock...it was a painful biting of the tongue experience to buy back in after it had significantly rallied. I had to set aside my emotions, and do the logical thing; it was as simple, and difficult, as that.

I find these posts, and they always show up, so weird. My inclination was to do nothing except the same, invest every two weeks. Been doing that since 1994, and will continue for six more years. Heavy on the equities, may dial that down a tad, but may not.

Curious, how could selling during a pullback / drop / whatever not seem nutty? Unless you needed money to not die, I can see no reason a move down in value would trigger a sell emotion.

it's emotional not rational.

some folks who sell low are probably due to the feeling of "yes i am taking a loss by selling but at least i get to preserve what i still have" plus these folks work hard for many many years to accumulate the fund and they simply have a very hard time handling the feeling of "losing the hard earned money". all these thoughts are understandable, hence, discipline becomes prudent.

feeling in many cases is not logical so if you are trying to use logic and rationale to understand feeling, you will most likely have a hard time accomplishing that.

[hudson]

some folks who sell low are probably due to the feeling of "yes i am taking a loss by selling but at least i get to preserve what i still have" plus these folks work hard for many many years to accumulate the fund and they simply have a very hard time handling the feeling of "losing the hard earned money". all these thoughts are understandable, hence, discipline becomes prudent.

feeling in many cases is not logical so if you are trying to use logic and rationale to understand feeling, you will most likely have a hard time accomplishing that.

LeslieSmiley,
You hit the nail on the head.

[mr_brightside]

not me --- not even close

---------------------------------------------

[ochotona]

If anyone here is going to trade your investments, you can't trade on fear or greed, you need to study technical analysis and decide what your buy and sell criteria area. Leaving the market in March and still being in cash is an object lesson in what not to do.

A really easy one is the 10 month moving average; it will keep you from wrecking on a true bear market, there will be drag in a bear market (fire drills), but it really improves your risk adjusted return.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... r-up-10-75

[anoop]

If anyone here is going to trade your investments, you can't trade on fear or greed, you need to study technical analysis and decide what your buy and sell criteria area. Leaving the market in March and still being in cash is an object lesson in what not to do.

A really easy one is the 10 month moving average; it will keep you from wrecking on a true bear market, there will be drag in a bear market (fire drills), but it really improves your risk adjusted return.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... r-up-10-75

I wonder if someone is keeping track of the actual returns. The chart by itself is deceptive because you sell at the first red and buy at the first green following the sell, and often times that corresponds to sell after a drop and buy after it's above the sell point. I think you get less volatility but also a lower overall return. And it's only practical for a tax deferred or tax free account. It can also work out really badly if timing is against you. For example, if we see big drops starting the early in the month, there could be a lot of damage by month end by the time you sell. Then you could have a whole month of massive increases before, possibly surpassing the previous high, by the time you buy in.

[ohboy!]

Unfortunately fixed rate investing is so low right now that everyone is squeezed into something with more risk. One of those risks is holding cash at a losing value. I have always held more cash than most here. So far that has definitely not worked out in my favor. If a HYS was at 2% or higher still I wouldn't be as pushed as I feel right now to buy more equities. I'm maxing out I bonds and EE bonds as my best fixed income option.

A big factor in investing is income security. To many here it's a non-issue. I think to me it's more prevalent and that's why I hold more cash.

I also think that inflation metrics are broken. The biggest costs I incur are housing, and health. They are going up scary fast where I live and have been for quite some time. The United States has printed 1/4 of it's total money supply this year alone. It doesn't seem like modern monetary theory plays out on the official metrics of inflation, but it definitely has some relevance to markets and pricing over time.

I really suspect we will see more of a push from people en masse, mobilized through technology, to narrow the gap of wealth inequality. And I have to think that will likely result in a negative impact on things like overpriced equities.

[anoop]

I also think that inflation metrics are broken. The biggest costs I incur are housing, and health. They are going up scary fast where I live and have been for quite some time.

Do you own or rent? If renting, do you think owning would help mitigate the increase in housing cost? Healthcare is mess and I don't think there is a solution because there is too much money involved not to mention a huge a number of jobs that depend on complexity and bureaucracy (non medical, administrative jobs).

I really suspect we will see more of a push from people en masse, mobilized through technology, to narrow the gap of wealth inequality. And I have to think that will likely result in a negative impact on things like overpriced equities.

I very much doubt it can happen, unless there is some kind of reset and a change of rules by which the game is played.

[ochotona]

Moving average and other trendfollowing methods have bull market drag due to false alarms due to buying in higher after you sold out. I got out late Feb 2020, bought in later at a slightly higher price. It is what it is. It's not for everyone. After the next big bear market (we will have one) it will be all the rage... at the bottom... when we won't need it for years and years.

[anoop]

After the next big bear market (we will have one) ...

I don't think so. We saw how aggressively they propped things up the last time around, and with trading halts downside is pretty limited. The next treasury secretary thinks it would be a good idea for the fed to own equities, so I think that pretty much seals it. Soon the fed will own the stock market like the JCB.

[tj]

If anyone here is going to trade your investments, you can't trade on fear or greed, you need to study technical analysis and decide what your buy and sell criteria area. Leaving the market in March and still being in cash is an object lesson in what not to do.

A really easy one is the 10 month moving average; it will keep you from wrecking on a true bear market, there will be drag in a bear market (fire drills), but it really improves your risk adjusted return.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... r-up-10-75

I wonder if someone is keeping track of the actual returns. The chart by itself is deceptive because you sell at the first red and buy at the first green following the sell, and often times that corresponds to sell after a drop and buy after it's above the sell point. I think you get less volatility but also a lower overall return. And it's only practical for a tax deferred or tax free account. It can also work out really badly if timing is against you. For example, if we see big drops starting the early in the month, there could be a lot of damage by month end by the time you sell. Then you could have a whole month of massive increases before, possibly surpassing the previous high, by the time you buy in.

I recall this blog post:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

[WhiteMaxima]

cash and fix income is losing purchasing power every day. Real return of cash and bond are negative.

[7eight9]

After the next big bear market (we will have one) ...

I don't think so. We saw how aggressively they propped things up the last time around, and with trading halts downside is pretty limited. The next treasury secretary thinks it would be a good idea for the fed to own equities, so I think that pretty much seals it. Soon the fed will own the stock market like the JCB.

Despite the actions of the JCB three decades later the Nikkei is still below its December 1989 peak.

[anoop]

After the next big bear market (we will have one) ...

I don't think so. We saw how aggressively they propped things up the last time around, and with trading halts downside is pretty limited. The next treasury secretary thinks it would be a good idea for the fed to own equities, so I think that pretty much seals it. Soon the fed will own the stock market like the JCB.

Despite the actions of the JCB three decades later the Nikkei is still below its December 1989 peak.

The US is not Japan, is what I'm told every time I bring that up. So far it seems to be working.

[ohboy!]

I also think that inflation metrics are broken. The biggest costs I incur are housing, and health. They are going up scary fast where I live and have been for quite some time.

Do you own or rent? If renting, do you think owning would help mitigate the increase in housing cost? Healthcare is mess and I don't think there is a solution because there is too much money involved not to mention a huge a number of jobs that depend on complexity and bureaucracy (non medical, administrative jobs).

I really suspect we will see more of a push from people en masse, mobilized through technology, to narrow the gap of wealth inequality. And I have to think that will likely result in a negative impact on things like overpriced equities.

I very much doubt it can happen, unless there is some kind of reset and a change of rules by which the game is played.

I rented for 17 years. 10 of those years I owned rental properties out of state. Purchased a house in 2018 for $600k. Now showing over $700k value. Good to be in the game I guess though I don’t think I’d be upset if I was still renting.

I think you may be surprised the potential power technology offers to people. Time will tell.

[anoop]

I also think that inflation metrics are broken. The biggest costs I incur are housing, and health. They are going up scary fast where I live and have been for quite some time.

Do you own or rent? If renting, do you think owning would help mitigate the increase in housing cost? Healthcare is mess and I don't think there is a solution because there is too much money involved not to mention a huge a number of jobs that depend on complexity and bureaucracy (non medical, administrative jobs).

I really suspect we will see more of a push from people en masse, mobilized through technology, to narrow the gap of wealth inequality. And I have to think that will likely result in a negative impact on things like overpriced equities.

I very much doubt it can happen, unless there is some kind of reset and a change of rules by which the game is played.

I rented for 17 years. 10 of those years I owned rental properties out of state. Purchased a house in 2018 for $600k. Now showing over $700k value. Good to be in the game I guess though I don’t think I’d be upset if I was still renting.

I think you may be surprised the potential power technology offers to people. Time will tell.

Conversely, you might be surprised by the potential power technology offers to people in power. Just like with money, the power might be very asymmetric. They know what you're thinking and planning at every instant but you don't know what they are thinking.

[ochotona]

If anyone here is going to trade your investments, you can't trade on fear or greed, you need to study technical analysis and decide what your buy and sell criteria area. Leaving the market in March and still being in cash is an object lesson in what not to do.

A really easy one is the 10 month moving average; it will keep you from wrecking on a true bear market, there will be drag in a bear market (fire drills), but it really improves your risk adjusted return.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... r-up-10-75

I wonder if someone is keeping track of the actual returns. The chart by itself is deceptive because you sell at the first red and buy at the first green following the sell, and often times that corresponds to sell after a drop and buy after it's above the sell point. I think you get less volatility but also a lower overall return. And it's only practical for a tax deferred or tax free account. It can also work out really badly if timing is against you. For example, if we see big drops starting the early in the month, there could be a lot of damage by month end by the time you sell. Then you could have a whole month of massive increases before, possibly surpassing the previous high, by the time you buy in.

I recall this blog post:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

You can do the trading simulation yourself HERE, on real live securities. I used SNXFX and VBMFX because they have a long track record. If we really say "we are long term investors" then that means we like trend-following because over the long term it's better. Return is better, drawdowns better, risk-adjusted return better (Sharpe Ratio).



But in the short-term, you do pay a tax during a bull market, due to fire drills... false in-and-out-and-in trades where there is no bear market, and you lose some money. It's a feature, not a bug. But if you focus on those, you're being a short-term investor, you're a victim of recency bias.

Trend-following does not require "fear", "greed", "FOMO", "guessing", "feelings", "picking the top", "picking the bottom". It's math, and simple math at that. On the last trading day of the month, take the last ten monthly closes of the S&P500 (include that day - so "today" and 9 prior). Average them. Is price of the S&P500 above or below that 10 month average? If above - buy or hold. If below - sell.

You don't have to sell EVERYTHING. You can devote a portion of your equities to trendfollowing. From 0%-100%. Take your pick. Mine is 94% trend, 6% B&H*. This is a 10 minute per month exercise. It's more work than a 10 minute per year truly lazy portfolio, but I have that amount of time.


* the 6% B&H represent Value selections, securities which have been severely beaten down really far already, so they may have a good upside. For example, I bought EM Value based on the 7-year Asset Class forecasts out of GMO, and the Global CAPE work of StarCapital AG. Symbol FNDE, Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets. Also my taxable space I use for B&H, trading can generate too much tax, though if I get a trend sell signal and I have a tax lost to harvest, I will harvest it. I just don't want to harvest ST cap gains and pay tax at 24% marginal rate.

[CyclingDuo]

If anyone here is going to trade your investments, you can't trade on fear or greed, you need to study technical analysis and decide what your buy and sell criteria area. Leaving the market in March and still being in cash is an object lesson in what not to do.

A really easy one is the 10 month moving average; it will keep you from wrecking on a true bear market, there will be drag in a bear market (fire drills), but it really improves your risk adjusted return.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... r-up-10-75

I wonder if someone is keeping track of the actual returns. The chart by itself is deceptive because you sell at the first red and buy at the first green following the sell, and often times that corresponds to sell after a drop and buy after it's above the sell point. I think you get less volatility but also a lower overall return. And it's only practical for a tax deferred or tax free account. It can also work out really badly if timing is against you. For example, if we see big drops starting the early in the month, there could be a lot of damage by month end by the time you sell. Then you could have a whole month of massive increases before, possibly surpassing the previous high, by the time you buy in.

I recall this blog post:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

You can do the trading simulation yourself HERE, on real live securities. I used SNXFX and VBMFX because they have a long track record. If we really say "we are long term investors" then that means we like trend-following because over the long term it's better. Return is better, drawdowns better, risk-adjusted return better (Sharpe Ratio).

But in the short-term, you do pay a tax during a bull market, due to fire drills... false in-and-out-and-in trades where there is no bear market, and you lose some money. But if you focus on those, you're being a short-term investor, you're a victim of recency bias.

Trend-following does not require guessing, "feelings", "picking the top", "picking the bottom". It's math, and simple math at that. On the last trading day of the month, take the last ten monthly closes of the S&P500 (including that day). Average them. Is price of the S&P500 aboe or below that average? If above - buy or hold. If below - sell.

You don't have to sell EVERYTHING. You can devote a portion of your equities to trendfollowing. From 0%-100%. Take your pick. Mine is 94% trend, 6% B&H*. This is a 10 minute per month exercise. It's more work than a 10 minute per year truly lazy portfolio, but I have that amount of time.


* the 6% B&H represent Value selections, securities which have been severely beaten down really far already, so they may have a good upside. For example, I bought EM Value based on the 7-year Asset Class forecasts out of GMO, and the Global CAPE work of StarCapital AG. Symbol FNDE, Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets. Also my taxable space I use for B&H, trading can generate too much tax, though if I get a trend sell signal and I have a tax lost to harvest, I will harvest it. I just don't want to harvest ST cap gains and pay tax in the current tax year.

I'll stick with being a Sarah. Much more productive over decades of investing than Tiffany or Brittany...

https://imgur.com/gallery/BlK4jzM

[ochotona]

Well, if you're managing using cute little MEMEs and slogans instead of math, good luck to you. I prefer math. Your mileage may vary. As far as I can estimate, if I had been doing trendfollowing in time for the early 2000s Tech Bubble Burst I'd be wealthier... by half a million dollars. I was doing trendfollowing for the Great Financial Crisis, through I did not know it. I did some forensic work on my trades during 2008-2009.. it was not rigorous and formalized as it is now for me, but I was lightening up on stocks in early 2008. Then I pushed all of my bonds back into stocks late 2009. But now I have math to signal, so the guessing is out the window.

I have been fully invested since 1985. The only change is instead of my stocks and bonds being mostly IN PARALLEL in time, they are now SERIAL in time.

If you follow that cute little cartoon and take a 100% cash portfolio and push it into stocks when the 10 month moving average is showing a sell signal, that's a bad idea. You could lose 50% of your money quickly. Then you have to earn 100% to get back to even.

[staustin]

Since the March lows I've made a mistake of selling almost all of my equities. With everything up now, I realized I made a big mistake. Anyone in a similar situation and what did you end up doing?

I bailed out of stocks in 2008 and moved to fixed income.
I'm comfortable with where I am. I learned that I did not want to own any stocks ever.

The DW and I reduced our equity allocation to 30% max in 2008 and have stayed there. During market downturns we've bought "aggressively". We've learned this is our comfort level and quite content regardless of the market.

[ochotona]

Since the March lows I've made a mistake of selling almost all of my equities. With everything up now, I realized I made a big mistake. Anyone in a similar situation and what did you end up doing?

I bailed out of stocks in 2008 and moved to fixed income.
I'm comfortable with where I am. I learned that I did not want to own any stocks ever.

The DW and I reduced our equity allocation to 30% max in 2008 and have stayed there. During market downturns we've bought "aggressively". We've learned this is our comfort level and quite content regardless of the market.

I have my Mom in 100% fixed inocme. She's 90. What's the point? If we get a 50% or 70% market haircut during her lifetime, I might buy some stocks for her, or maybe not. If she's declining at that point, I won't make any change.

30% stocks is a nice level for low-anxiety Buy & Hold.

[Croissant]

its human to make mistakes, i think its a reasonable, understandable decision to cashed out in march when things looked dire. but you need to recall the feeling that compelled you to sell back in march, and accept that you (like most retail or professional traders) are simply NOT good at market timing. learn from that. put most of your money in a target date fund. if you're feeling adventurous put 5% in the brokerage account and play with that.

I think most people can expect a decent return with a target date fund if they just leave the darn thing alone, without having to pull these Jackie Chan high octane "move to cash" maneuvers with market timing.

[anoop]

Well, if you're managing using cute little MEMEs and slogans instead of math, good luck to you. I prefer math. Your mileage may vary. As far as I can estimate, if I had been doing trendfollowing in time for the early 2000s Tech Bubble Burst I'd be wealthier... by half a million dollars. I was doing trendfollowing for the Great Financial Crisis, through I did not know it. I did some forensic work on my trades during 2008-2009.. it was not rigorous and formalized as it is now for me, but I was lightening up on stocks in early 2008. Then I pushed all of my bonds back into stocks late 2009. But now I have math to signal, so the guessing is out the window.

I have been fully invested since 1985. The only change is instead of my stocks and bonds being mostly IN PARALLEL in time, they are now SERIAL in time.

If you follow that cute little cartoon and take a 100% cash portfolio and push it into stocks when the 10 month moving average is showing a sell signal, that's a bad idea. You could lose 50% of your money quickly. Then you have to earn 100% to get back to even.

What signal do you use?

[CyclingDuo]

Well, if you're managing using cute little MEMEs and slogans instead of math, good luck to you. I prefer math. Your mileage may vary. As far as I can estimate, if I had been doing trendfollowing in time for the early 2000s Tech Bubble Burst I'd be wealthier... by half a million dollars. I was doing trendfollowing for the Great Financial Crisis, through I did not know it. I did some forensic work on my trades during 2008-2009.. it was not rigorous and formalized as it is now for me, but I was lightening up on stocks in early 2008. Then I pushed all of my bonds back into stocks late 2009. But now I have math to signal, so the guessing is out the window.

I have been fully invested since 1985. The only change is instead of my stocks and bonds being mostly IN PARALLEL in time, they are now SERIAL in time.

If you follow that cute little cartoon and take a 100% cash portfolio and push it into stocks when the 10 month moving average is showing a sell signal, that's a bad idea. You could lose 50% of your money quickly. Then you have to earn 100% to get back to even.

Jeremy - who created the "cute little cartoons" - is a member of the forums here and does promote sound Boglehead investing philosophy on his own site.

https://courses.personalfinanceclub.com ... ndex-funds

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/

We'll just call you Brittany from now on....

Have you watched the video series here at Bogleheads itself?

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:B ... philosophy



CyclingDuo