Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

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InvestorNewb
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Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by InvestorNewb »

We will eventually reach a point where a vaccine is announced for covid-19 and it will be publicly available.

What are people's predictions for how the market will react to such a reality? What kind of gains might we expect? It will be interesting to look back at this thread and see who was right in terms of their prediction.

I'm guessing the market will jump between 7 to 10%.
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Kookaburra
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by Kookaburra »

InvestorNewb wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:39 pm We will eventually reach a point where a vaccine is announced for covid-19 and it will be publicly available.

What are people's predictions for how the market will react to such a reality? What kind of gains might we expect? It will be interesting to look back at this thread and see who was right in terms of their prediction.

I'm guessing the market will jump between 7 to 10%.
Gains over what time period? If you’re referring to one day (the day one is announced), my guess is it’ll be small, maybe 1-2%. The market is expecting one and much is priced in.
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InvestorNewb
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by InvestorNewb »

Kookaburra wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:59 pm Gains over what time period? If you’re referring to the day one is announced, I’m think it’ll be small, maybe 1-2%. The market is expecting one and much is priced in.
Yeah the day of the announcement.
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CRJPylote
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by CRJPylote »

I'd say small gains as well. Market is forward thinking, multiple vaccines are underway, and one of them will likely be approved.

Avoiding politics as much as I can, I also increasingly don't think a vaccine will change the current situation in the US overnight anyway.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by egrets »

The numbers I hear are 50% effective at preventing Covid. Now if it were 90% effective, I'd expect a big jump. At 50% I'll be wearing a mask until hell freezes over.
000
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by 000 »

I predict the main market indices will be red if a vaccine is announced.

Why? The market has been pricing in megacap publicly traded companies eating up business from small caps and unlisted firms. That is likely to change if a return to normalcy is expected.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by David Jay »

“Buy the rumor, sell the news.”

I predict broad markets will be down.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by quantAndHold »

The market is already predicting a vaccine. The real question is what if there isn’t an effective vaccine within the next few months.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by UpsetRaptor »

It’s going to be tough to narrow a specific date for your prediction parameters. Vaccine “announcement” and “publicly available” are going to be different dates, with multiple phases involved. First step will likely be Phase 3 trial result data comes out for one of the vaccine candidates that proves safety and efficacy. Next step is likely EUA approval, which is initial approval for certain high risk people like health care workers. Next step would be full approval. Due to capacity/logistics, widespread public availability will be a ramp-up over time. It’ll all likely happen over the next several months, but not as a single acute event.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by tibbitts »

egrets wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:14 pm The numbers I hear are 50% effective at preventing Covid. Now if it were 90% effective, I'd expect a big jump. At 50% I'll be wearing a mask until hell freezes over.
I know almost nothing about vaccines, but I think it will come down to effectiveness in preventing death or other extreme consequences, not preventing people from getting Covid-19. Sick is okay: before we all stayed home, we used to get sick all the time and not think about it. Needing hospitalization and facing possible death is completely different than just getting sick with the usual routine cold or mild flu symptoms. I'm guessing the markets are pricing in a high rate of effectiveness at preventing death and hospitalization, and if we don't get that I'd guess the markets would fall.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by Kookaburra »

tibbitts wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:07 pm
egrets wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:14 pm The numbers I hear are 50% effective at preventing Covid. Now if it were 90% effective, I'd expect a big jump. At 50% I'll be wearing a mask until hell freezes over.
I know almost nothing about vaccines, but I think it will come down to effectiveness in preventing death or other extreme consequences, not preventing people from getting Covid-19. Sick is okay: before we all stayed home, we used to get sick all the time and not think about it. Needing hospitalization and facing possible death is completely different than just getting sick with the usual routine cold or mild flu symptoms. I'm guessing the markets are pricing in a high rate of effectiveness at preventing death and hospitalization, and if we don't get that I'd guess the markets would fall.
What about preventing long-term organ damage?
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by willthrill81 »

There's a potentially big gulf between a vaccine that's purported to be effective being announced and 80-90% of the population receiving a vaccine that's truly effective and doesn't pose significant risks from side effects.

I don't think that the market will react much either way.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by tibbitts »

Kookaburra wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:14 pm
tibbitts wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:07 pm
egrets wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:14 pm The numbers I hear are 50% effective at preventing Covid. Now if it were 90% effective, I'd expect a big jump. At 50% I'll be wearing a mask until hell freezes over.
I know almost nothing about vaccines, but I think it will come down to effectiveness in preventing death or other extreme consequences, not preventing people from getting Covid-19. Sick is okay: before we all stayed home, we used to get sick all the time and not think about it. Needing hospitalization and facing possible death is completely different than just getting sick with the usual routine cold or mild flu symptoms. I'm guessing the markets are pricing in a high rate of effectiveness at preventing death and hospitalization, and if we don't get that I'd guess the markets would fall.
What about preventing long-term organ damage?
Long-term organ damage doesn't fit the description of "death or other extreme consequences"? Most people would probably characterize organ damage as an "extreme consequence."
Last edited by tibbitts on Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by whodidntante »

If you were to be infected with the virus in a year, you would probably have access to therapeutics that are known to be safe and effective. I have two anti-viral medications in my house obtained before dystopia that are the list of promising therapeutics that are being studied. A vaccine may not provide long-lasting, effective protection. I say get used to wearing your mask.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by Stinky »

egrets wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:14 pm The numbers I hear are 50% effective at preventing Covid. Now if it were 90% effective, I'd expect a big jump. At 50% I'll be wearing a mask until hell freezes over.
That 50% threshold is what was reported in the WSJ as a minimum acceptable threshold for efficacy.

Explaining the 50% - the way that the WSJ put it is that Moderna (for example) is looking at the first 151 infections of COVID out of its 30,000 people in the trial. If 50 of the 151 people infected got the vaccine (implying that 101 of them did not get it), the vaccine would have approximately 50% efficacy. Of course, I expect that Moderna is hoping that the number of infected people who got the vaccine out of the first 151 infected is well less than 50.

Other vaccines are targeting minimum efficacy similar to Moderna.

Given the information in the WSJ and elsewhere, I expect that Mr Market is expecting a vaccine that has 50% efficacy. So, if the vaccine(s) that pass muster have much higher than 50% efficacy, I think that Mr Market will like it and move upward.
Last edited by Stinky on Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by TheoLeo »

I think the market will soar for a day or two after the news, then correct sharply to a slightly lower level than before the news. I predict the vaccines to be effective on a statistically significant basis, but not effective enough to have an effect on social distancing measures. So the vaccines will be able to save lives on a population wide basis, but not be effective enough to guarantee the individual that he or she won´t get covid if exposed.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by JoeRetire »

InvestorNewb wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:39 pm We will eventually reach a point where a vaccine is announced for covid-19 and it will be publicly available.

What are people's predictions for how the market will react to such a reality?
Very little. The market gets juiced a little bit by positive rumors, then doused a bit by negative rumors.
By the time a formal announcement is actually made, the action will already have been baked in.

Not to mention that "announced" and "publicly available" won't happen at the same time.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by JoeRetire »

tibbitts wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:07 pm I know almost nothing about vaccines, but I think it will come down to effectiveness in preventing death or other extreme consequences, not preventing people from getting Covid-19.
That's not how vaccines work.
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by egrets »

Kookaburra wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:14 pm
tibbitts wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:07 pm
egrets wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:14 pm The numbers I hear are 50% effective at preventing Covid. Now if it were 90% effective, I'd expect a big jump. At 50% I'll be wearing a mask until hell freezes over.
I know almost nothing about vaccines, but I think it will come down to effectiveness in preventing death or other extreme consequences, not preventing people from getting Covid-19. Sick is okay: before we all stayed home, we used to get sick all the time and not think about it. Needing hospitalization and facing possible death is completely different than just getting sick with the usual routine cold or mild flu symptoms. I'm guessing the markets are pricing in a high rate of effectiveness at preventing death and hospitalization, and if we don't get that I'd guess the markets would fall.
What about preventing long-term organ damage?
I'm a little unclear about your message. Sick is not okay in many cases - double lung transplants, ongoing mental confusion, ongoing lung problems, people dying from other causes because they fear ERs with coronavirus patients, or can't get in due to those being over capacity. But perhaps you are saying something different?
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

Post by Lynette »

I do not know if it will be decided early one that they have decided which is the vaccine that is the most effective. "Chaos and confusion" could follow next year is the headline of an article in the NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/worl ... ovals.html

"The first vaccines may provide only moderate protection, low enough to make it prudent to keep wearing a mask. By next spring or summer, there may be several of these so-so vaccines.

Because of this array of options, makers of a superior vaccine in early stages of development may struggle to finish clinical testing. And some vaccines may be abruptly withdrawn from the market because they turn out not to be safe.

“It has not yet dawned on hardly anybody the amount of complexity and chaos and confusion that will happen in a few short months,” said Dr. Gregory Poland, the director of the Vaccine Research Group at the Mayo Clinic."
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Re: Vaccine impact on market [prediction]

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