Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

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Taylor Larimore
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Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

Morningstar has released its Style/Factor Returns (scroll down) for the third quarter of 2020 and back 10-years:

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/10 ... egory-data

"Past performance does not forecast future performance."

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Buy the haystack."
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by abuss368 »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:54 am Bogleheads:

Morningstar has released its Style/Factor Returns (scroll down) for the third quarter of 2020 and back 10-years:

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/10 ... egory-data

"Past performance does not forecast future performance."

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Buy the haystack."
Many thanks for sharing Taylor. Surprised at some of that!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

This is a Table I posted many years ago showing 15-year Morningstar style returns ending 6-30-00 20 years ago. Small-Cap Value Funds were the worst even then.
Style.......1 Yr.....3 Yr.....5 Yr....10 Yr....15 Yrs.
LCG......27.19...27.04....24.98...17.85....17.15
LCB........8.93...17.29....20.35...15.60....15.23
LCV.......-5.21....8.74.....15.16..13.36....13.45

MCG.....57.24....31.09...24.81...18.14....16.82
MCB.....11.87....12.36...16.09...14.12....14.23
MCV.....-2.56......7.23...13.20...12.77....12.64

SCG.....55.14....24.42...20.86...17.12....15.64
SCB.....17.77....10.08...15.30...13.03....12.02
SCV......3.29......3.55...12.58....11.80...11.34
viewtopic.php?p=2898535#p2898535

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Don't buy the needle. Buy the haystack."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by abuss368 »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:42 pm Bogleheads:

This is a Table I posted many years ago showing 15-year Morningstar style returns ending 6-30-00 20 years ago. Small-Cap Value Funds were the worst even then.
Style.......1 Yr.....3 Yr.....5 Yr....10 Yr....15 Yrs.
LCG......27.19...27.04....24.98...17.85....17.15
LCB........8.93...17.29....20.35...15.60....15.23
LCV.......-5.21....8.74.....15.16..13.36....13.45

MCG.....57.24....31.09...24.81...18.14....16.82
MCB.....11.87....12.36...16.09...14.12....14.23
MCV.....-2.56......7.23...13.20...12.77....12.64

SCG.....55.14....24.42...20.86...17.12....15.64
SCB.....17.77....10.08...15.30...13.03....12.02
SCV......3.29......3.55...12.58....11.80...11.34
viewtopic.php?p=2898535#p2898535

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Don't buy the needle. Buy the haystack."
Interesting. That lends support to keeping investing simple and buy the haystack with Total Market index funds. Sectors and styles involve their own separate and unique risk characteristics.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by asif408 »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:42 pm Bogleheads:

This is a Table I posted many years ago showing 15-year Morningstar style returns ending 6-30-00 20 years ago. Small-Cap Value Funds were the worst even then.
Style.......1 Yr.....3 Yr.....5 Yr....10 Yr....15 Yrs.
LCG......27.19...27.04....24.98...17.85....17.15
LCB........8.93...17.29....20.35...15.60....15.23
LCV.......-5.21....8.74.....15.16..13.36....13.45

MCG.....57.24....31.09...24.81...18.14....16.82
MCB.....11.87....12.36...16.09...14.12....14.23
MCV.....-2.56......7.23...13.20...12.77....12.64

SCG.....55.14....24.42...20.86...17.12....15.64
SCB.....17.77....10.08...15.30...13.03....12.02
SCV......3.29......3.55...12.58....11.80...11.34
viewtopic.php?p=2898535#p2898535

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Don't buy the needle. Buy the haystack."
Thanks, Taylor. Just curious, how has SCV done since 6/30/2000?
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by 1789 »

No worries. I just buy the whole US market and i don’t follow which industry or style does better than others.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by BabaWawa »

Taylor,

I guess I didn't scroll down far enough to get to the past performance charts in your link (which don't really interest me since I'm in this long term). What I did notice was the lead Morningstar article in your link titled: "Stock Market Outlook: Finding Opportunity Beyond Mega-Caps".

In the article they say: "the broad market-cap-weighted valuation is upwardly skewed by several significantly overvalued mega-cap stocks. Analyzing our coverage with the Morningstar Style Box reveals... that the highest percentage of 4 or 5 stars are found in the small-cap space."

Thanks for the link. I'm sure the small cap value investors here appreciate the encouragement.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by burritoLover »

$10k in 2000:
TSM: 6.33%, $35,752
SCV: 8.29%, $52,183

$10k in 1980:
TSM: 11.31%, $786,522
SCV: 12.91%, $1,409,621
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by AZAttorney11 »

Another SCV bashing from Taylor, coupled with cherry-picked dates. I'm shocked.
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Re: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by absolute zero »

asif408 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:58 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:42 pm Bogleheads:

This is a Table I posted many years ago showing 15-year Morningstar style returns ending 6-30-00 20 years ago. Small-Cap Value Funds were the worst even then.
Style.......1 Yr.....3 Yr.....5 Yr....10 Yr....15 Yrs.
LCG......27.19...27.04....24.98...17.85....17.15
LCB........8.93...17.29....20.35...15.60....15.23
LCV.......-5.21....8.74.....15.16..13.36....13.45

MCG.....57.24....31.09...24.81...18.14....16.82
MCB.....11.87....12.36...16.09...14.12....14.23
MCV.....-2.56......7.23...13.20...12.77....12.64

SCG.....55.14....24.42...20.86...17.12....15.64
SCB.....17.77....10.08...15.30...13.03....12.02
SCV......3.29......3.55...12.58....11.80...11.34
viewtopic.php?p=2898535#p2898535

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Don't buy the needle. Buy the haystack."
Thanks, Taylor. Just curious, how has SCV done since 6/30/2000?
For Taylor, 20 years is irrelevant. He only cares about recent performance.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by nedsaid »

Avantis Investors has a short article regarding the valuation gaps between Large Growth and Small Value. This reminds me a lot of the late 1990's. Below is the link.

https://www.avantisinvestors.com/conten ... thier.html
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by 1789 »

nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:45 pm Avantis Investors has a short article regarding the valuation gaps between Large Growth and Small Value. This reminds me a lot of the late 1990's. Below is the link.

https://www.avantisinvestors.com/conten ... thier.html
Thanks nedsaid. I liked reading it. I haven't lived thru late nineties but i read about it. I agree that all the high flying large cap growth stocks also tech fund arguments in the forum looks like it is always possible to see a repeat of large cap growth slaughter. However, I don’t have a better and a simpler way to invest other than putting whatever i have in the cap weighted US market.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by Massdriver »

nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:45 pm Avantis Investors has a short article regarding the valuation gaps between Large Growth and Small Value. This reminds me a lot of the late 1990's. Below is the link.

https://www.avantisinvestors.com/conten ... thier.html
Thanks for the link.

I wonder if there are any comparisons like that regarding intl scv and intl TSM.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by nedsaid »

1789 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:53 pm
nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:45 pm Avantis Investors has a short article regarding the valuation gaps between Large Growth and Small Value. This reminds me a lot of the late 1990's. Below is the link.

https://www.avantisinvestors.com/conten ... thier.html
Thanks nedsaid. I liked reading it. I haven't lived thru late nineties but i read about it. I agree that all the high flying large cap growth stocks also tech fund arguments in the forum looks like it is always possible to see a repeat of large cap growth slaughter. However, I don’t have a better and a simpler way to invest other than putting whatever i have in the cap weighted US market.
I am not in the prediction business but I do have my convictions. What I would say is that Large Growth looks pretty richly valued but we aren't seeing the euphoria of the late 1990's, so I am not predicting a Tech crash. The big Tech companies have pretty amazing cash flows, my biggest holding is Microsoft, it generates insane amounts of cash. There gets to be a point where expectations get to be so high that even great companies can turn into poor investments.

I have often posted about four great companies from the 1990's that I bought in the early 2000's at "bargain" prices, it turned out that even at lower prices that these companies still were too highly priced. They were AIG, GE, Microsoft, and Pfizer, I have dubbed them "The Four Horsemen of Underperformance." Only Microsoft returned to its former glory but it was dead money for about seven years, the catalyst was the new CEO who got it all turned around.

I have replaced Microsoft with Ford in the "Four Horsemen", it is sort of my anti-Index. It gives me something to complain about and provides fodder for my posts. GE, once the "must own" company for every portfolio, has been a disappointment since I bought it and it has never missed an opportunity to further disappoint.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by nedsaid »

Massdriver wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:56 pm
nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:45 pm Avantis Investors has a short article regarding the valuation gaps between Large Growth and Small Value. This reminds me a lot of the late 1990's. Below is the link.

https://www.avantisinvestors.com/conten ... thier.html
Thanks for the link.

I wonder if there are any comparisons like that regarding intl scv and intl TSM.
Too lazy to look right now but what I will say is that International Stocks are cheaper than US Stocks. No euphoria in Europe or Asia that I can see, indeed in Europe there is a lot of pessimism. I might get around to checking on this but the valuation gaps between Growth and Value I suspect would be a lot less overseas than here.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by kolder »

1980-2000 SCV outperformed TSM
1985-2005 SCV outperformed TSM
1990-2010 SCV outperformed TSM
1995-2015 SCV outperformed TSM
2000-2020 SCV outperformed TSM

2005-present TSM has outperformed so far! :shock:

per portfoliovisualizer
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by absolute zero »

nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:06 pm
Massdriver wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:56 pm
nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:45 pm Avantis Investors has a short article regarding the valuation gaps between Large Growth and Small Value. This reminds me a lot of the late 1990's. Below is the link.

https://www.avantisinvestors.com/conten ... thier.html
Thanks for the link.

I wonder if there are any comparisons like that regarding intl scv and intl TSM.
Too lazy to look right now but what I will say is that International Stocks are cheaper than US Stocks. No euphoria in Europe or Asia that I can see, indeed in Europe there is a lot of pessimism. I might get around to checking on this but the valuation gaps between Growth and Value I suspect would be a lot less overseas than here.
I can’t seem to find it right now, but just a couple weeks ago I found some charts comparing US vs DM vs EM valuation gaps. Showed that the international value gap is bigger than its historical average, but certainly not as big as the gap in the US.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by Kenkat »

kolder wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:07 pm 1980-2000 SCV outperformed TSM
1985-2005 SCV outperformed TSM
1990-2010 SCV outperformed TSM
1995-2015 SCV outperformed TSM
2000-2020 SCV outperformed TSM

2005-present TSM has outperformed so far! :shock:

per portfoliovisualizer
There’s gonna be a lot of cryin’ around here if that pattern holds.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by langlands »

I have a suspicion that international "growth" is qualitatively different from US "growth" in that it's made up of companies that aren't really that innovative and don't deserve their earnings growth projection. Crudely put, almost all international stocks are actually "value" and "growth" is just the "value" stocks that have higher P/E, hence basically overvalued since they don't deserve the higher multiple. For instance, the largest holding in iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF is Nestle. I mean, there is nothing wrong with Nestle, but it just feels strange that a chocolate/food company is the biggest part of a growth index. If this basic story is true, that would explain the strong and robust value outperformance (compared to growth) internationally.

I wonder if there is any academic literature on this. It would require some measures of innovation and growth that aren't based purely on financial metrics. Patents would be an example, but the problem of course is that patents can be gamed. Basically, it's a measure of the visionary ambition of a company and its ability to deliver on that vision. I guess this might be too subjective to do properly.
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Re: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by willthrill81 »

absolute zero wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:26 pm
asif408 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:58 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:42 pm Bogleheads:

This is a Table I posted many years ago showing 15-year Morningstar style returns ending 6-30-00 20 years ago. Small-Cap Value Funds were the worst even then.
Style.......1 Yr.....3 Yr.....5 Yr....10 Yr....15 Yrs.
LCG......27.19...27.04....24.98...17.85....17.15
LCB........8.93...17.29....20.35...15.60....15.23
LCV.......-5.21....8.74.....15.16..13.36....13.45

MCG.....57.24....31.09...24.81...18.14....16.82
MCB.....11.87....12.36...16.09...14.12....14.23
MCV.....-2.56......7.23...13.20...12.77....12.64

SCG.....55.14....24.42...20.86...17.12....15.64
SCB.....17.77....10.08...15.30...13.03....12.02
SCV......3.29......3.55...12.58....11.80...11.34
viewtopic.php?p=2898535#p2898535

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Don't buy the needle. Buy the haystack."
Thanks, Taylor. Just curious, how has SCV done since 6/30/2000?
For Taylor, 20 years is irrelevant. He only cares about recent performance.
I admire many of Taylor's accomplishments, but he's clearly impacted very strongly by confirmation bias.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by 1789 »

Kenkat wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:34 pm
kolder wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:07 pm 1980-2000 SCV outperformed TSM
1985-2005 SCV outperformed TSM
1990-2010 SCV outperformed TSM
1995-2015 SCV outperformed TSM
2000-2020 SCV outperformed TSM

2005-present TSM has outperformed so far! :shock:

per portfoliovisualizer
There’s gonna be a lot of cryin’ around here if that pattern holds.
Kenkat

Why? If one believes in SCV they should invest in that. Certainly there is a possibility that the pattern can continue to hold, or not but i don’t think TSM holders will be crying. Not me thats for sure ahahah. Heck even if international performs better than US i wont cry, promise :P
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by Kenkat »

1789 wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:00 pm
Kenkat wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:34 pm
kolder wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:07 pm 1980-2000 SCV outperformed TSM
1985-2005 SCV outperformed TSM
1990-2010 SCV outperformed TSM
1995-2015 SCV outperformed TSM
2000-2020 SCV outperformed TSM

2005-present TSM has outperformed so far! :shock:

per portfoliovisualizer
There’s gonna be a lot of cryin’ around here if that pattern holds.
Kenkat

Why? If one believes in SCV they should invest in that. Certainly there is a possibility that the pattern can continue to hold, or not but i don’t think TSM holders will be crying. Not me thats for sure ahahah. Heck even if international performs better than US i wont cry, promise :P
Yes, crying is probably a strong word and mostly I was joking, but if value / small value makes a comeback over the next five years, you absolutely will see a newfound interest on the forum in those asset classes and interest in doing something “different” than just the market weighted portfolio. The same will be true if international outperforms. Not from all - some are really committed to their strategy - but there will many who will waver.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by BabaWawa »

Not sure why this latest Taylor post deserves its own thread. Hopefully a moderator will just roll this into one of the many other SCV threads where Taylor has taken the opportunity to bash those who have taken a different road to Dublin.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by nedsaid »

absolute zero wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:22 pm
nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:06 pm
Massdriver wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:56 pm
nedsaid wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:45 pm Avantis Investors has a short article regarding the valuation gaps between Large Growth and Small Value. This reminds me a lot of the late 1990's. Below is the link.

https://www.avantisinvestors.com/conten ... thier.html
Thanks for the link.

I wonder if there are any comparisons like that regarding intl scv and intl TSM.
Too lazy to look right now but what I will say is that International Stocks are cheaper than US Stocks. No euphoria in Europe or Asia that I can see, indeed in Europe there is a lot of pessimism. I might get around to checking on this but the valuation gaps between Growth and Value I suspect would be a lot less overseas than here.
I can’t seem to find it right now, but just a couple weeks ago I found some charts comparing US vs DM vs EM valuation gaps. Showed that the international value gap is bigger than its historical average, but certainly not as big as the gap in the US.
Yes, the Large Growth phenomenon we have experienced since 2009 hasn't been confined to the United States, we have seen this overseas as well. International Value seems to have done even worse than US Value.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

Post by Robert T »

.
Vanguard's 10-year annualized return outlook
https://americas.vanguard.com/instituti ... ctives.htm

U.S. equities 3.9%-5.9% (17.9% median volatility)
Global equities ex-U.S. (unhedged) 7.4%-9.4% (18.6%)

U.S. value 5.0%-7.0% (19.9%)
U.S. growth 1.6%-3.6% (19.5%)

U.S. large-cap 3.7%-5.7% (19.4%)
U.S. small-cap 4.0%-6.0% (23.5%)

U.S. REITs 3.4%-5.4% (19.9%)

U.S. aggregate bonds 0.7%-1.7% (4.0%)
U.S. Treasury bonds 0.3%-1.3% (4.2%)
Global bonds ex-U.S. (hedged) 0.5%-1.5% (2.5%)
U.S. credit 1.4%-2.4% (5.7%)

U.S. high-yield corporate 3.2%-4.2% (10.7%)
Emerging market sovereign 3.1%-4.1% (11.1%)

U.S. TIPS 0.4%-1.4% (6.4%)
U.S. cash 0.5%-1.5% (0.9%)
U.S. inflation 0.5%-1.5% (2.4%)
.
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Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

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