[President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

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7eight9
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by 7eight9 »

ray.james wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:21 pm To be honest I was surprised dow dipped last night. USA is not a place where political systems become unstable because a government official, even the president is sick.
The course of the economy and to some extent market depends on the course of the virus. I am real worried about K shaped recovery that is happening.
I'm thinking the action last night wasn't because of the political system becoming unstable but because the outcome of the election became in doubt. The offshore books took the game off the board. They didn't cut the max bet to a nominal level. They took it right off the board. As in, they didn't feel confident enough to put any odds as everything was in flux. And as of this post the game is still off the board. I don't think we have seen the end of the volatility. One positive or negative medical report could send the market soaring or into a tailspin.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by angelescrest »

burritoLover wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:28 pm The S&P 500 dropped 2.8% in one day when Kennedy was assassinated and recovered all its losses two days later. Doubt Trump's covid is even a blip on the radar.
Wow, that is quite a historical detail! Only 2.8%? Go figure.
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JoeRetire
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by JoeRetire »

Ben Mathew wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:51 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:46 pm
Ben Mathew wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:40 pm Right now S&P 500 is down -.57% and Nasdaq is down -1.82%.

Why should the tech industry be more impacted than the S&P500 by news that the president is sick?
NASDAQ seems more volatile in general, so this reaction doesn't surprise me.
I'm not surprised either. But I think it might tell us something about the Nasdaq.
Like what?
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by whodidntante »

Interesting that AVUV popped 2.45% today.
http://letmegooglethat.com/?q=avuv
Bob.Beeman
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Bob.Beeman »

A much more severe loss for the US was on April 12, 1945. On that day Hitler was still alive, Germany had not yet surrendered, the Japanese government was preparing to put all its remaining troops and millions of women and children with rifles and spears on their coasts against an allied invasion, nobody knew about the "Manhattan Project", and oh, yeah, the President died unexpectedly, leaving an outsider (HST) to run the country and war effort.

Does anybody have any stock market data for April of 1945? Might be interesting, but as for me, I plan to "Stay the Course".

Hopes and prayers that our leaders survive in wisdom and good health are always a good idea.

Bob.Beeman
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by 000 »

Bob.Beeman wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:45 pm A much more severe loss for the US was on April 12, 1945. On that day Hitler was still alive, Germany had not yet surrendered, the Japanese government was preparing to put all its remaining troops and millions of women and children with rifles and spears on their coasts against an allied invasion, nobody knew about the "Manhattan Project", and oh, yeah, the President died unexpectedly, leaving an outsider (HST) to run the country and war effort.

Does anybody have any stock market data for April of 1945? Might be interesting, but as for me, I plan to "Stay the Course".

Hopes and prayers that our leaders survive in wisdom and good health are always a good idea.

Bob.Beeman
The monthly DJIA data from macrotrends.net shows April as a green month. Couldn't find daily data.
Seasonal
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Seasonal »

Seasonal wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:12 pm
mega317 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:32 pm We are UP nearly a full 1% from intraday low. Inside information of a false positive?
High uncertainty upon announcement. The market does not like such uncertainty. More information reduced uncertainty.

WH refusal to go into detail on his condition and the lack of tweets are not really consistent with a false positive.

Plus all the other news today.
Giving a sitting president an experimental drug that just started clinical trials in June is a bit odd. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-c ... fo-2020-10 Wouldn't you at least want good information on safety if not effectiveness? And he's being hospitalized. https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbre ... 211248e97e

We shall see how that affects the market.
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ResearchMed
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by ResearchMed »

Seasonal wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:25 pm
Seasonal wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:12 pm
mega317 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:32 pm We are UP nearly a full 1% from intraday low. Inside information of a false positive?
High uncertainty upon announcement. The market does not like such uncertainty. More information reduced uncertainty.

WH refusal to go into detail on his condition and the lack of tweets are not really consistent with a false positive.

Plus all the other news today.
Giving a sitting president an experimental drug that just started clinical trials in June is a bit odd. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-c ... fo-2020-10 Wouldn't you at least want good information on safety if not effectiveness? And he's being hospitalized. https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbre ... 211248e97e

We shall see how that affects the market.
How much does "the market" (aka "Pre-Market" index values or...?) move during the weekend?
I'm familiar with the few hours *after* the market close, and the few hours *before* it opens the next business day.
But what "happens", and where, between those?
I suppose that's the same as "just overnight" when it's not a weekend.

RM
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epicahab
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by epicahab »

Seasonal wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:25 pm
Seasonal wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:12 pm
mega317 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:32 pm We are UP nearly a full 1% from intraday low. Inside information of a false positive?
High uncertainty upon announcement. The market does not like such uncertainty. More information reduced uncertainty.

WH refusal to go into detail on his condition and the lack of tweets are not really consistent with a false positive.

Plus all the other news today.
Giving a sitting president an experimental drug that just started clinical trials in June is a bit odd. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-c ... fo-2020-10 Wouldn't you at least want good information on safety if not effectiveness? And he's being hospitalized. https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbre ... 211248e97e

We shall see how that affects the market.
[Removed]
Last edited by epicahab on Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Time to lock the thread - political statements or predictions are not allowed on the forum.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

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Deleted.
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sergeant
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by sergeant »

Let's see how he looks heading out to Marine One. :annoyed

Edit: He looked ok to me but what do I know!
Last edited by sergeant on Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by z3r0c00l »

A sad but not shocking turn of events, there are vice presidents however so this system should keep moving no matter what.
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willthrill81
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by willthrill81 »

canadianbacon wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:17 pm Market was already pricing in a likely Biden win, so I don't expect much of an impact from this news unless Trump is incapacitated or dies.
This post supposes that the market has priced in possibilities a purely binary manner, but that's not the way that markets appear to work at all. Rather, markets strongly appear to price in possible events in a probabilistic manner.

For instance, if the market deems that there is a 60% probability of event A occurring with benefit +4 and a 40% probability of event B occurring with benefit of -2, then the market will price in the probabilistic event accordingly, in this case, with a benefit of +1.6 ([60% x 4] + [40% x -2]).
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by DeskJumper »

Bob.Beeman wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:45 pm A much more severe loss for the US was on April 12, 1945. On that day Hitler was still alive, Germany had not yet surrendered, the Japanese government was preparing to put all its remaining troops and millions of women and children with rifles and spears on their coasts against an allied invasion, nobody knew about the "Manhattan Project", and oh, yeah, the President died unexpectedly, leaving an outsider (HST) to run the country and war effort.

Does anybody have any stock market data for April of 1945? Might be interesting, but as for me, I plan to "Stay the Course".

Hopes and prayers that our leaders survive in wisdom and good health are always a good idea.

Bob.Beeman
I couldn't see anything specific to the death of FDR, but there are some very interesting and relevant charts in this link if anyone is interested in how big news events affected the DOW during World War II.

https://www.investmentoffice.com/Observ ... d_War.html
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greg24
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by greg24 »

The random walk took another zig.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Stinky »

So much has happened in the 18 hours since the news came out.

So much more can happen in the 62 hours until the stock market opens again.

Who used to talk about “unknown unknowns”? I think that’s where we are.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by 000 »

Stinky wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:57 pm So much has happened in the 18 hours since the news came out.

So much more can happen in the 62 hours until the stock market opens again.

Who used to talk about “unknown unknowns”? I think that’s where we are.
Isn't every day of life like that?

It is a known known that the number and significance of unknown unknowns is always a known unknown, no?
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by cos »

ResearchMed wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:30 pm How much does "the market" (aka "Pre-Market" index values or...?) move during the weekend?
I'm familiar with the few hours *after* the market close, and the few hours *before* it opens the next business day.
But what "happens", and where, between those?
I suppose that's the same as "just overnight" when it's not a weekend.

RM
Theoretically, the market's always open! It exists independent of anything tangible, including the assets being traded. You and I could write and sign a contract right now where I promise you X shares of some stock for Y dollars (or vice versa) to be delivered on Z date. That's called a future, and in reality, those too have some restrictions, especially if you're going through a big exchange. For example, futures on the NASDAQ trade only 23 hours a day, 6 days a week so you still miss out on Saturdays and the hour between 6pm and 7pm EST.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by palanzo »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:53 pm Time to lock the thread - political statements or predictions are not allowed on the forum.
If you applied the predictions criterion then most threads would be locked or never started. Should I use this fund or that fund? What will interest rates do? What will the Fed do?
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by mega317 »

Seasonal wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:12 pm
mega317 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:32 pm We are UP nearly a full 1% from intraday low. Inside information of a false positive?
High uncertainty upon announcement. The market does not like such uncertainty. More information reduced uncertainty.

WH refusal to go into detail on his condition and the lack of tweets are not really consistent with a false positive.

Plus all the other news today.
Dropped back down from my post but not as far as at noon. Almost certain proof of a high cycle threshold.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212
aqan
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by aqan »

burritoLover wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:28 pm The S&P 500 dropped 2.8% in one day when Kennedy was assassinated and recovered all its losses two days later. Doubt Trump's covid is even a blip on the radar.
Market likes Trumps economic policies and may not like the uncertainty due to Trumps illness.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by nisiprius »

I'm amazed nobody has yet started a googly-eyed thread about Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN). They develop and manufacture, among other things, REGN-COV2, the synthetic antibody "cocktail" that was given to President Trump early today.

So perhaps to anticipate: yes, a lot of us already own some: it is 0.17% of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund and ETF.

And Regeneron’s Covid-19 Antibody Isn’t a Slam Dunk for Profit, Analyst Says, and an earlier article mentioned that they were hoping to have 300,000 doses "by fall." And a course of treatment is more than one dose. So, assuming it continue to go well, an important new treatment but there isn't going to be enough of it for a long time.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by TropikThunder »

nisiprius wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:58 pm I'm amazed nobody has yet started a googly-eyed thread about Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN). They develop and manufacture, among other things, REGN-COV2, the synthetic antibody "cocktail" that was given to President Trump early today.

So perhaps to anticipate: yes, a lot of us already own some: it is 0.17% of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund and ETF.

And Regeneron’s Covid-19 Antibody Isn’t a Slam Dunk for Profit, Analyst Says, and an earlier article mentioned that they were hoping to have 300,000 doses "by fall." And a course of treatment is more than one dose. So, assuming it continue to go well, an important new treatment but there isn't going to be enough of it for a long time.
Biotech is notorious for the frequent disconnect between a "successful" therapy and a "profitable" one.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by z3r0c00l »

TropikThunder wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:58 pm
nisiprius wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:58 pm I'm amazed nobody has yet started a googly-eyed thread about Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN). They develop and manufacture, among other things, REGN-COV2, the synthetic antibody "cocktail" that was given to President Trump early today.

So perhaps to anticipate: yes, a lot of us already own some: it is 0.17% of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund and ETF.

And Regeneron’s Covid-19 Antibody Isn’t a Slam Dunk for Profit, Analyst Says, and an earlier article mentioned that they were hoping to have 300,000 doses "by fall." And a course of treatment is more than one dose. So, assuming it continue to go well, an important new treatment but there isn't going to be enough of it for a long time.
Biotech is notorious for the frequent disconnect between a "successful" therapy and a "profitable" one.
Up 3.4% in after hours so people are taking some notice. But are they making any money on this treatment?
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btq96r
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by btq96r »

I check my accounts daily around supper time, and today had nothing out of variance compared to a normal day. I'm sure there might have been some deliberate timing of the President's admission at Walter Reed to keep it after the closing bell. But if I had to guess, unless worst comes to pass, this won't be a big to-do compared to how the year has gone.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Seasonal »

z3r0c00l wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:02 pm
TropikThunder wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:58 pm
nisiprius wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:58 pm I'm amazed nobody has yet started a googly-eyed thread about Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN). They develop and manufacture, among other things, REGN-COV2, the synthetic antibody "cocktail" that was given to President Trump early today.

So perhaps to anticipate: yes, a lot of us already own some: it is 0.17% of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund and ETF.

And Regeneron’s Covid-19 Antibody Isn’t a Slam Dunk for Profit, Analyst Says, and an earlier article mentioned that they were hoping to have 300,000 doses "by fall." And a course of treatment is more than one dose. So, assuming it continue to go well, an important new treatment but there isn't going to be enough of it for a long time.
Biotech is notorious for the frequent disconnect between a "successful" therapy and a "profitable" one.
Up 3.4% in after hours so people are taking some notice. But are they making any money on this treatment?
It's an experimental drug in limited testing since June. It's far from being available for sale, if ever.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by oldcomputerguy »

Several posts that were commenting purely on political aspects rather than market impact were removed. As LadyGeek noted above, please keep comments centered on the impact to the market of these developments. Purely political comments are still off-topic.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Seasonal »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:00 amI find it amusing to think that the market prices in anything beyond normal financial information with any sort accuracy when Pence’s odds went from 300-1 to 26-1 before the bookies suspended taking new bets.
The idea that the market prices things is that the market has processed all available information, not that the market is accuratei (although how to judge accuracy is far from clear in many cases).

"The market has priced that" is typically a reaction to someone claiming to know the future direction of the market based on some fact, event, etc. and that such knowledge is useful for investing. You're not going to get superior returns based on something that's already known unless you are better at analysis than the market. Given history, this is highly unlikely.

This applies to financial markets. Bookies are another matter.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by nigel_ht »

Seasonal wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:32 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:00 amI find it amusing to think that the market prices in anything beyond normal financial information with any sort accuracy when Pence’s odds went from 300-1 to 26-1 before the bookies suspended taking new bets.
The idea that the market prices things is that the market has processed all available information, not that the market is accuratei (although how to judge accuracy is far from clear in many cases).

"The market has priced that" is typically a reaction to someone claiming to know the future direction of the market based on some fact, event, etc. and that such knowledge is useful for investing. You're not going to get superior returns based on something that's already known unless you are better at analysis than the market. Given history, this is highly unlikely.

This applies to financial markets. Bookies are another matter.
The market processed the fact that the 2nd largest economy shut down and cancelled their biggest holiday in January?

Nope, it completely ignored the implication to earnings and supply chain. Just like it ignored that the dot bomb was a huge bubble.

Is it actionable? Bogle thought so...he changed his AA to something more conservative.

Is it often obvious enough to make an investment career out of it? No. These sorts of things are once a decade or two.

Saying that the “market has priced that in” ignores all the times that the market clearly didn’t. Whether that is due to being wrong or ignoring reality is a difference without distinction.

And there are enough folks around here who quote Buffett to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful“ that the rejoinder that the “market has priced it in” is essentially a reactive emotional response rather than repeating consensus or a market truth.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Xrayman69 »

Friday October 2 was a “double” buy day for me. Buy every Friday, and October 1 was bonus payout day and thus finds went in on Friday October 2 close of market.

Staying the course.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by willthrill81 »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:50 am
Seasonal wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:32 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:00 amI find it amusing to think that the market prices in anything beyond normal financial information with any sort accuracy when Pence’s odds went from 300-1 to 26-1 before the bookies suspended taking new bets.
The idea that the market prices things is that the market has processed all available information, not that the market is accuratei (although how to judge accuracy is far from clear in many cases).

"The market has priced that" is typically a reaction to someone claiming to know the future direction of the market based on some fact, event, etc. and that such knowledge is useful for investing. You're not going to get superior returns based on something that's already known unless you are better at analysis than the market. Given history, this is highly unlikely.

This applies to financial markets. Bookies are another matter.
The market processed the fact that the 2nd largest economy shut down and cancelled their biggest holiday in January?

Nope, it completely ignored the implication to earnings and supply chain. Just like it ignored that the dot bomb was a huge bubble.

Is it actionable? Bogle thought so...he changed his AA to something more conservative.

Is it often obvious enough to make an investment career out of it? No. These sorts of things are once a decade or two.

Saying that the “market has priced that in” ignores all the times that the market clearly didn’t. Whether that is due to being wrong or ignoring reality is a difference without distinction.

And there are enough folks around here who quote Buffett to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful“ that the rejoinder that the “market has priced it in” is essentially a reactive emotional response rather than repeating consensus or a market truth.
Well said. My thoughts largely mirror yours. The idea of the 'wisdom of the herd' as it applies to the markets is quite flawed. Part of the problem is that there isn't an objectively correct a priori answer as to what a given security is precisely worth in current dollars. Another part of the problem is that the biases of the markets' participants do not come from a population whose mean is zero, meaning that they do not 'cancel out' when they are averaged together (i.e. to form the market price). That doesn't mean that it's easy to beat the market, in no small part that it's hard to forecast precisely how the aforementioned biases will play out in the future.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

palanzo wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:16 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:53 pm Time to lock the thread - political statements or predictions are not allowed on the forum.
If you applied the predictions criterion then most threads would be locked or never started. Should I use this fund or that fund? What will interest rates do? What will the Fed do?
My comment was directed at a particular someone who not only wished bad luck upon our current President but also made a political statement about who will win the election. If you want that, there are plenty of other forums outside of here for that. This is a financial forum so asking those questions above are legitimate in the scope of one’s individual situation as monetary policy has a direct correlation to particular outcomes in the equity, fixed income and commodities markets.
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Seasonal
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Seasonal »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:50 am
Seasonal wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:32 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:00 amI find it amusing to think that the market prices in anything beyond normal financial information with any sort accuracy when Pence’s odds went from 300-1 to 26-1 before the bookies suspended taking new bets.
The idea that the market prices things is that the market has processed all available information, not that the market is accuratei (although how to judge accuracy is far from clear in many cases).

"The market has priced that" is typically a reaction to someone claiming to know the future direction of the market based on some fact, event, etc. and that such knowledge is useful for investing. You're not going to get superior returns based on something that's already known unless you are better at analysis than the market. Given history, this is highly unlikely.

This applies to financial markets. Bookies are another matter.
[1] The market processed the fact that the 2nd largest economy shut down and cancelled their biggest holiday in January?

Nope, it completely ignored the implication to earnings and supply chain. Just like it ignored that the dot bomb was a huge bubble.

[2] Is it actionable? Bogle thought so...he changed his AA to something more conservative.

Is it often obvious enough to make an investment career out of it? No. These sorts of things are once a decade or two.

Saying that the “market has priced that in” ignores all the times that the market clearly didn’t. Whether that is due to being wrong or ignoring reality is a difference without distinction.

[3] And there are enough folks around here who quote Buffett to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful“ that the rejoinder that the “market has priced it in” is essentially a reactive emotional response rather than repeating consensus or a market truth.
[1] The market is approximately where it was in January. Those who acted on your obvious insight have not done as well as those who didn't, unless they had a second insight.

[2] The market is now at approximately an all time high. See Taylor's many quotes on market timing and Bogle's views and actions.

[3] As mentioned: "You're not going to get superior returns based on something that's already known unless you are better at analysis than the market. Given history, this is highly unlikely." It is, however, much easier with the benefit of hindsight. Note that Buffett wants his wife's inheritance trust to be invested in a buy and hold index fund plus treasuries, although he could have chosen any trustees he wanted.
palanzo
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by palanzo »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:37 am
palanzo wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:16 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:53 pm Time to lock the thread - political statements or predictions are not allowed on the forum.
If you applied the predictions criterion then most threads would be locked or never started. Should I use this fund or that fund? What will interest rates do? What will the Fed do?
My comment was directed at a particular someone who not only wished bad luck upon our current President but also made a political statement about who will win the election. If you want that, there are plenty of other forums outside of here for that. This is a financial forum so asking those questions above are legitimate in the scope of one’s individual situation as monetary policy has a direct correlation to particular outcomes in the equity, fixed income and commodities markets.
I'm not sure any of us are good at guessing what or to whom your comment was directed at. Actually speculation on Fed policies and interest rates is not allowed on the forum because it is not actionable. If you can tell me what will happen to interest rates over the next 5 years that would certainly be helpful.
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Stinky
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Stinky »

Stinky wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:57 pm So much has happened in the 18 hours since the news came out.

So much more can happen in the 62 hours until the stock market opens again.

Who used to talk about “unknown unknowns”? I think that’s where we are.
Oh, the twists and turns.

On the one hand, more politicians (and football players) are testing positive.

On the other hand, today’s medical report on the President sounds pretty positive.

I have no idea what Mr Market will think when things open up in 43 hours. We often say that “nobody knows nothing”, but it seems REALLY true now.
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atdharris
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by atdharris »

The fact that they are throwing every experimental treatment at the President suggests to me that things are worse than are being reported. I hope I am wrong. I wish him a speedy recovery.
potatopancake
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by potatopancake »

In the long term, this will mean nothing for the stock market. However, I am holding on any investments until after the election.
egrets
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by egrets »

Stinky wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:05 pm On the other hand, today’s medical report on the President sounds pretty positive.
The word is, however,that things are not that rosy.

I for one am getting tired of 2020.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by LadyGeek »

Several posts related to the coronavirus have been removed. See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19

Political comments (opinions of the political process) remain off-topic. Please stay on-topic, which is market impacts due to the President's diagnosis.
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Nomar
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Nomar »

Markets like a stable US government that predictably acts in all the different spheres of its jurisdiction. The market likes transparency and credible information whether that is from the Fed or the WH. Timely and accurate news that can be weighed for its value. The next few months are likely to be turbulent as ongoing uncertainty about the president's actual health status and legal challenges to election results will dominate headlines.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by nisiprius »

egrets wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:18 pm
Stinky wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:05 pm On the other hand, today’s medical report on the President sounds pretty positive.
The word is, however,that things are not that rosy.

I for one am getting tired of 2020.
The collective noun for swan appears to be bevy or wedge.

"Black wedge" sounds about right.
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Ciel
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Ciel »

In isolation, I wouldn't expect the president's diagnosis to have much of a market impact. If he were to go on supplemental oxygen (which he is now not on), that might make things more volatile due to increased uncertainty.

The only thing that seems almost certain at this point is high expected volatility in the weeks to months ahead.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

palanzo wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:19 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:37 am
palanzo wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:16 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:53 pm Time to lock the thread - political statements or predictions are not allowed on the forum.
If you applied the predictions criterion then most threads would be locked or never started. Should I use this fund or that fund? What will interest rates do? What will the Fed do?
My comment was directed at a particular someone who not only wished bad luck upon our current President but also made a political statement about who will win the election. If you want that, there are plenty of other forums outside of here for that. This is a financial forum so asking those questions above are legitimate in the scope of one’s individual situation as monetary policy has a direct correlation to particular outcomes in the equity, fixed income and commodities markets.
I'm not sure any of us are good at guessing what or to whom your comment was directed at. Actually speculation on Fed policies and interest rates is not allowed on the forum because it is not actionable. If you can tell me what will happen to interest rates over the next 5 years that would certainly be helpful.
I was referring to your prior questions as to being acceptable, not the Fed one.
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typical.investor
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by typical.investor »

TropikThunder wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:27 pm
xerxes101 wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:18 pm On this note,

(1) The dose which I read was given to the Pres, 8 g (which is the high dose of the drug per Regeneron's phase 3 clinical trials), is a "massive" dose of monoclonal antibodies IMO

(2) Remedsevir is not known to be particularly effective drug from what I understand though it clearly does have some efficacy...reserved mostly for severe as opposed to mild to moderate cases

If true, these two data points do not bode well for his condition, because it looks to me like the doctors are "throwing the kitchen sink" at the problem.
Good points. I think it's uncontroversial to say the current course of treatment is aggressive. Whether that is an indication of the importance of the patient or the severity of the condition (or both) remains to be seen. But like others have stated, the issue from the market's perspective is the uncertainty (which isn't helped by poor/disjointed/contradictory communications from the WH).
The economy will go on with or without the current POTUS. Sure volatility may increase but if you are not a trader trying to take advantage of swings, why should one care?
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by LadyGeek »

Several additional posts related to the coronavirus have been removed. See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by whodidntante »

nisiprius wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:48 pm
egrets wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:18 pm
Stinky wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:05 pm On the other hand, today’s medical report on the President sounds pretty positive.
The word is, however,that things are not that rosy.

I for one am getting tired of 2020.
The collective noun for swan appears to be bevy or wedge.

"Black wedge" sounds about right.
Seconded. All in favor?
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LadyGeek
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by LadyGeek »

Hang on, let's check official sources. From Merriam-Webster:
A group of swans, also once game birds, is a wedge when they're in flight, likely because of the shape a group of swans takes in flight. And while we can call a group of swans a bevy, a herd, a game, or a flight, they can only be a bank when they're on the ground.
Bank might be confusing.
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livesoft
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by livesoft »

atdharris wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:56 pm The fact that they are throwing every experimental treatment at the President suggests to me that things are worse than are being reported. I hope I am wrong. I wish him a speedy recovery.
I have not read nor heard "that they are throwing every experimental treatment at ...." It may even be that the patient is requesting experimental treatments and not the physicians. Who knows?

As for the market impacts, I don't think there will be any.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by typical.investor »

nisiprius wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:48 pm
egrets wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:18 pm
Stinky wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:05 pm On the other hand, today’s medical report on the President sounds pretty positive.
The word is, however,that things are not that rosy.

I for one am getting tired of 2020.
The collective noun for swan appears to be bevy or wedge.

"Black wedge" sounds about right.
Anyone paying attention to MERS and SARS would sort of have expected such a phenomenon to happen again. The fact that it's spread by those who don't realize they are sick is a little new, but it's silly to label it a blackswan when someone who insists on not taking a basic precautionary measure catches something in a pandemic.

Honestly, you didn't expect another virus out of China. Really?

I guess Black Swan has no real meaning. Both another virus and someone with wide public contacts who takes little protection catching said virus both seem rather likely events to me. But call it what you will.

I suppose when antibiotic resistant germs become dangerously widespread everyone will be surprised too. This despite warnings that practices like giving low doses to animal to fatten them up could have dire consequences. Yeah, nobody will have seen it coming I guess.

I guess by current lingustic standards the Lakers winning the NBA will be a black swan to all non-Laker's fans i.e. simply an unfavorable event that couldn't be predicted with any certainty but surely was a known possibility all along.
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