[President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

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bog007
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[President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by bog007 »

[Posts merged into here from: U.S. stocks in free fall --admin LadyGeek]

trump covid. market down huge on futures
Hendrik Bessembinder> the top performing 4% of listed companies explain the net gain for the entire US stock market since 1926 | The other 96% of stocks collectively did not do better than 90dayT-bills
guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw »

bog007 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:25 am trump covid. market down huge on futures
Huge news.. SP500 futures only down 1.7% right now. Probably lots of volatility over the next 2 weeks.

White house folks get tested multiple times a day, so it is quite early. Sad to see.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
occambogle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by occambogle »

Whether the market views one candidate or another more favorably is debatable and perhaps too political for this forum, but I think the one thing we can say is the market doesn't like uncertainty, and that's a whole lot of new uncertainty that has just arisen..... I'd imagine VIX will be up today.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

I see a lot of red. Enjoy the rollercoaster ride. Strap in.
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nura
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nura »

lostdog wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:56 am I see a lot of red. Enjoy the rollercoaster ride. Strap in.
Been stock piling ammunitions (cash and bonds) since August highs, locked and loaded for the ride
GoldenGoose
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[President tests positive for COVID-19]

Post by GoldenGoose »

[Title was "Interesting day today for the market" --admin LadyGeek]

With the POTUS and FLOTUS both tested positive for covid 19, I wonder how it is going to affect the markets? I hope it is going to turn into a good opportunity for me to pick up sone good stocks on the cheap. I love opportunities.
Old Sage(brush)
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Re: Interesting day today for the market

Post by Old Sage(brush) »

Interesting day for sure!
Dontwasteit
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Re: Interesting day today for the market

Post by Dontwasteit »

Gonna be a down day!
Nowizard
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Re: Interesting day today for the market

Post by Nowizard »

We will all be dizzy from the spin coming from three sources, two campaigns and the market itself. Not meant to be a political comment so much as recognition of the fact that there is an interaction that can hopefully be mentioned that is not appropriate to discuss.

Tim
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

Looking like a buying opportunity to me.
Flyer24
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Re: Interesting day today for the market

Post by Flyer24 »

Topic is locked.

Update: Thread unlocked, see below --admin LadyGeek
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:57 am Looking like a buying opportunity to me.
What would u buy?
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

Keenobserver wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:28 am
CurlyDave wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:57 am Looking like a buying opportunity to me.
What would u buy?
It is no secret that I am a fan of QQQ. If you are more into SPY or VOO, or even TSM they are also good bets.

Buy on bad news, sell on strength.
A_Bond
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by A_Bond »

Indexes steadily climbing off of their opening lows. This may be a milder fall than first anticipated.
buy. hold. repeat.
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:53 am
Keenobserver wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:28 am
CurlyDave wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:57 am Looking like a buying opportunity to me.
What would u buy?
It is no secret that I am a fan of QQQ. If you are more into SPY or VOO, or even TSM they are also good bets.

Buy on bad news, sell on strength.
tnx..i bought and looks like will be up already hopefully at close
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

The bulls are fighting back!
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EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

bog007 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:25 am trump covid. market down huge on futures
Like him or not, when the president gets sick, it’s a big deal. My prediction is that there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next week or two which usually equals volatility in the market.
My plan is to do nothing until I get another paycheck and then invest that as well.
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Dennisl
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Dennisl »

EnjoyIt wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:50 am
bog007 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:25 am trump covid. market down huge on futures
Like him or not, when the president gets sick, it’s a big deal. My prediction is that there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next week or two which usually equals volatility in the market.
My plan is to do nothing until I get another paycheck and then invest that as well.
Agreed. If Biden gets sick, then even more volatility. I'm not even sure what happens if a presidential candidate becomes incapacitated weeks before the election.
7eight9
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 7eight9 »

Dennisl wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:55 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:50 am
bog007 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:25 am trump covid. market down huge on futures
Like him or not, when the president gets sick, it’s a big deal. My prediction is that there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next week or two which usually equals volatility in the market.
My plan is to do nothing until I get another paycheck and then invest that as well.
Agreed. If Biden gets sick, then even more volatility. I'm not even sure what happens if a presidential candidate becomes incapacitated weeks before the election.
Last night the overseas books took the race off the board. Since it isn't parimutuel a late scratch is a very real concern.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by LadyGeek »

The President's and First Lady diagnosis' impact on the markets can not be ignored.

Bear in mind that this is a "No politcs" forum. Also, coronavirus details are off the table. See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19

Please use this thread to discuss market impacts. Avoid political opinions. Also, the main intent of the post must be on the market.

This thread is unlocked to continue the discussion.
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case_of_ennui
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by case_of_ennui »

I have a feeling we will see more of a pullback next week. That being said, feelings mean nothing. My only market timing is investing in some buttery popcorn to enjoy as events unfold.
JD2775
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by JD2775 »

case_of_ennui wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:50 am I have a feeling we will see more of a pullback next week. That being said, feelings mean nothing. My only market timing is investing in some buttery popcorn to enjoy as events unfold.
I agree, I don't see it really sinking in until next week. This is all kind of fascinating. I think we will see more lows than highs in the next few weeks, but what do I know :)
000
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by 000 »

I think after a brief panic the regularly scheduled programming will resume.

How many undecided US voters can there possibly still be? i.e. whether both, only one, or neither of Trump/Biden is able to campaign in person doesn't seem likely to move the needle at this point. So I think the market has priced things in or will by Monday.

In a small account I did trade some stuff that held up pretty well for QQQ. We'll see how that goes.
dbr
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by dbr »

And yet as of now VTI and VXUS are down less than half a percent on the day and the trading volume is normal. In other words the event has had zero effect on the market.
7eight9
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by 7eight9 »

If there is no change in the parties on the ballot I doubt the market will be impacted. If there is a late scratch then things get very interesting. Last night one possible replacement contender moved up from 300:1 to 26:1 before the game was taken off the board. Given how few days are left prior to election a scratch would create an unprecedented situation in American history and likely create a very prolonged and litigious election season. Markets like stability. That situation would be anything but.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
BogleFan510
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by BogleFan510 »

I believe this will draw attention of some skeptics to the importance of using masks and social distancing to contain the virus, which longer term should enhance the chances and speed of an economic recovery.

The rates of virus spread are highly impacted by proper social behavior, which countries like Japan illustrate. If we had better social compliance and unity on what seems to be the painfully obvious strategies for virus containment, while keeping people working and going to school, the virus would likely be a very rare thing by now. Sadly in the USA we love 'aggressive, self determined' attitudes, not social obligations.

In summary, I believe this is very good for the economy and market, longer term.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by abuss368 »

Stimulus bill may be happening. US rises! Now I am backing up that truck.

I may trade in the truck for an even bigger truck.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by abuss368 »

Looks like the market has now shrugged off the morning news as hopes of finalizing the stimulus are getting stronger.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Seems much ado about nothing to me.

Sometimes I think the talking heads delight in attempting to scare people.

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Ben Mathew
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Ben Mathew »

Right now S&P 500 is down -.57% and Nasdaq is down -1.82%.

Why should the tech industry be more impacted than the S&P500 by news that the president is sick?
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by adamthesmythe »

The long-term health of the economy requires serious actions to control Covid. Anything that focuses attention on that can only be good for the economy and the market.
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JoeRetire
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by JoeRetire »

Any discussion about the market's reaction is pure speculation. Anyone who claims they know anything about the direction or magnitude of the market is kidding their self.

I plan to treat today the same as any other day and do nothing special financially.
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.
rchmx1
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by rchmx1 »

Ben Mathew wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:40 pm Right now S&P 500 is down -.57% and Nasdaq is down -1.82%.

Why should the tech industry be more impacted than the S&P500 by news that the president is sick?
NASDAQ seems more volatile in general, so this reaction doesn't surprise me.
Seasonal
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Seasonal »

There was other news today, including a weaker than expected jobs report, Biden testing negative, murky reports on stimulus negotiations, election process developments, etc.

S&P 500 now (1:48pm) down 0.77%, a number which will undoubtedly fluctuate.

Making investment decisions based on any of this seems foolish, as always.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Ben Mathew »

rchmx1 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:46 pm
Ben Mathew wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:40 pm Right now S&P 500 is down -.57% and Nasdaq is down -1.82%.

Why should the tech industry be more impacted than the S&P500 by news that the president is sick?
NASDAQ seems more volatile in general, so this reaction doesn't surprise me.
I'm not surprised either. But I think it might tell us something about the Nasdaq.
Chuck107
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Chuck107 »

.....
Last edited by Chuck107 on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Alas, I find moderation of this forum too restrictive for my tastes, farewell.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Stinky »

Chuck107 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:54 pm Meh, so far very weak imo market move 1 pm ish, I don't expect today to be anything more than the regular fluctuations the market takes.

When the market drops 10% or more wake me up.
I think you’re going to have a really really long wait for a 10% drop from current levels.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Chuck107 »

.....
Last edited by Chuck107 on Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
Alas, I find moderation of this forum too restrictive for my tastes, farewell.
langlands
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by langlands »

Ben Mathew wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:51 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:46 pm
Ben Mathew wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:40 pm Right now S&P 500 is down -.57% and Nasdaq is down -1.82%.

Why should the tech industry be more impacted than the S&P500 by news that the president is sick?
NASDAQ seems more volatile in general, so this reaction doesn't surprise me.
I'm not surprised either. But I think it might tell us something about the Nasdaq.
I don't think the market is moving much at all based on the president's illness. Today's movements are well within the usual range. Energy, financials, materials, real estate, utilities are all up. Technology, communications, consumer discretionary are down and consumer staples, health are flat. It's a classic sector rotation, possibly predicated on stimulus hopes.

[Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
Last edited by langlands on Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Stinky »

If anybody had told me yesterday that the S&P would be down less than 1% on the day the President got the virus, I would have not believed it.

If the diagnosis had been announced during trading hours, I expect the turmoil would have been much more severe. But since the announcement came overnight, Mr Market had plenty of time to digest it.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

When I am unsure what to do, I ask Jack Bogle.
“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.”
Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by asif408 »

I think if we can ignore the impact of other country's leaders getting the virus (e.g., Jair Bolsanaro, Boris Johnson) we can safely ignore Trump's diagnosis as well. The market impact of this diagnosis (if any) is not predictable so has no bearing on how you should invest or change how you invest.

Odd that this thread was unlocked, seems to me the decision to lock it was a good one but somehow this situation is unique. I'm not seeing how it impacts a long term investor, unless the Bogleheads focus has changed to short term speculation.
Last edited by asif408 on Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by BV3273 »

Keep calm and keep buying.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by peppers »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:26 pm Bogleheads:

When I am unsure what to do, I ask Jack Bogle.
“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.”
Best wishes.
Taylor
I like this.
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case_of_ennui
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by case_of_ennui »

peppers wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:47 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:26 pm Bogleheads:

When I am unsure what to do, I ask Jack Bogle.
“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.”
Best wishes.
Taylor
I like this.
In all other aspects of my life my tendency towards being undecisive and taking no action has likely held me back. Hoping those same qualities will "pay dividends" so to speak in my investing.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Buy! Stay the course. People will come, stay and go in the course of multiple terms. The impact is what? Exactly, because even in the darkest of days we found a way to overcome hurdles and this will be no different. There are firm “business continuity plans” in place and have been for hundreds of years. Those who panic do so at their peril!

Stay the course!
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by Fallible »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:26 pm Bogleheads:

When I am unsure what to do, I ask Jack Bogle.
“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.”
Best wishes.
Taylor
:thumbsup
I can imagine Jack making this comment today, as it applies to all investors for all time.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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ray.james
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by ray.james »

To be honest I was surprised dow dipped last night. USA is not a place where political systems become unstable because a government official, even the president is sick.
The course of the economy and to some extent market depends on the course of the virus. I am real worried about K shaped recovery that is happening.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
burritoLover
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by burritoLover »

The S&P 500 dropped 2.8% in one day when Kennedy was assassinated and recovered all its losses two days later. Doubt Trump's covid is even a blip on the radar.
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Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Post by mega317 »

We are UP nearly a full 1% from intraday low. Inside information of a false positive?
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212
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