US Investor investing mostly in international

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mx0
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US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by mx0 »

I am from the US and I know the consensus is that international is usually allocated as a smaller portion of your portfolio, but does anyone invest a large majority of their portfolio (60%-80%?) in international? I am concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term (greater than 20 years) and am considering significantly weighting my equities towards international, even more than the world balance of economic/market size of US/int.. I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest. I am interested in your thoughts on this.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

You would be going against the crowd. You would need to ask if you could stay the course as your approach could significantly under or out perform a cap weighted approach. There would be tax considerations as well. Democracy is messy. Making a judgement based on the current headlines is not a good investment policy. Read history of the U.S. and you would appreciate how the current unrest is minor compared to many points in our history. Cuba seems to have less citizen unrest, but I don’t think it is a good place to put your investments in my opinion.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by jimbomahoney »

I'm not a US investor, but I cannot see any reason not to invest in a global portfolio, either weighted by market (i.e. country / GDP) cap or, if you're feeling adventurous, simply an equal weighting of each country.

The former is easy and there are plenty of global funds / indices / ETFs.

The latter would probably involve holding various funds / ETFs.

I've gone for the former and achieve an almost market cap weight of every country in the world (including emerging) by holding two funds - a global fund and an emerging market fund.

I believe the future is unknowable and therefore have no wish to have a domestic bias, especially when my domicile accounts for <10% of the global stock market.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Robot Monster »

From the Economist article, "Should investors diversify away from America?: Even global indices are still heavily exposed to the country"
A good investment rule, then, might be to allocate a third of an equity portfolio to American stocks, a third to an index of stocks listed in other rich countries and a third to emerging-market shares. Such a portfolio would better reflect the make-up of global gdp. It would cap exposure to any one bloc. And it would anticipate a secular shift.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by asif408 »

I do (about 85% international), but I don't mind being different, lagging US stocks for a while, and hearing the constant chatter here about how terrible international investing has been the last 30 years and how those countries are more risky than the US for various reasons.

I'm not comfortable targeting countries like you are proposing, though. History tells me the best returns are typically countries with the worst news and headlines and poor trailing performance. So I don't want to miss out on them, even if a few ends up being duds. So I own the foreign countries with good headlines and those with bad headlines. My main focus in international investing, since I have a heavy overweight, is not to be too concentrated in one country. It's admittedly subjective, but if I had more than 1/4 of my portfolio in one country I would consider that concentrated. Many here are comfortable with 100% in one country (cough, cough,.......US only........cough, cough). Even at 85% international equities, my biggest single country holding (China) is under 20% of my overall portfolio, so I don't believe I have too many eggs in one country's basket.

I actually like Robot Monster's suggestion of 1/3 US, 1/3 developed ex-US, and 1/3 emerging markets as a good starting point for someone wanting to overweight foreign stocks.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Day9 »

I'm in the accumulation phase. I am 40/40/20, US/Developed International/Emerging markets. Off the top of my head I believe market cap is 60/30/10. So I overweight international and among international I overweigh emerging markets (EM is 1/3 of my Int'l allocation when it is 1/4 of market cap)

This is as far as I would deviate from market cap.

One argument is while you are working, your human capital is more strongly correlated with the US market so it makes sense to diversify away from that and overweigh international. When you are old and your human capital is depleted, your spending needs may correlate stronger with the US market, and there is less a benefit of taking on uncompensated currency risk and other issues like missing out on foreign tax credits, so therefore in retirement it is better to overweigh domestic.

My gut tells me 33/33/33 is too strong of an international tilt. I wouldn't go that far. And most certainly do not go 0/50/50. It reminds me of what Jack Bogle once said in another context about market timing. He strongly advocated against the idea of selling all your stocks and going to an all-bond portfolio for market timing reasons. But he said it was much less of a sin to go from say 60% stocks to 40% stocks. Please forgive me for applying his words there into this totally different context but I think there is some wisdom in his words that we can learn from.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by nalor511 »

Market weight makes the most sense to me, because I don't know in advance what will outperform, and thus what to overweight.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by rascott »

mx0 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:06 pm I am from the US and I know the consensus is that international is usually allocated as a smaller portion of your portfolio, but does anyone invest a large majority of their portfolio (60%-80%?) in international? I am concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term (greater than 20 years) and am considering significantly weighting my equities towards international, even more than the world balance of economic/market size of US/int.. I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest. I am interested in your thoughts on this.
There's citizen unrest in every country from time to time.... at least in the ones that allow for it. This seems a very foolish way to base your investment thesis
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by kramer »

I am about 40/60 US/foreign and have been in that range since I retired in 2007. I think before I retired I might have been closer to 50/50.

My reasoning is that the natural holding is around 50/50. However, I live outside the US, and all of my bonds are denominated in US dollars (around 40% of my portfolio), plus all of my future Social Security payments will be denominated in US dollars, so I bias a bit toward foreign for better international currency and general country exposure. I don't do anything based on political considerations or my opinion of the future of the US or any other country.

Over 90% of my US holdings are US small value. My foreign holdings are roughly 30% Developed Large, 40% developed small, 20% EM large, 10% EM small. All super low ER, the EM small is broken out from my VWO and VSS holdings.

This portfolio has not performed as well in the last decade as a heavy US large cap portfolio, but that doesn't bother me at all.

The part I wish I could change is to hold some non-hedged foreign bonds. But the ER on those funds is too high for me (circa 0.35%), plus within my US bond portfolio I take advantage of the free lunch offered to US CD holders, normally a bonus of 0.4% or so above US treasury yields, combined with a 0% expense ratio by doing direct transactions and not using a fund.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Robot Monster »

This was mentioned in another thread, but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international:

Absolute return 23%
Venture capital 21.5%
Leveraged buyouts 16.5%
Foreign equity 13.75%
Real estate 10%
Bonds and cash 7%
Natural resources 5.5%
Domestic equity 2.75%

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities." Source
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by grabiner »

My stock is 50% international, and has been 50% for years. My logic for this holding is that I overweight the asset classes that have the least correlation to the rest of my stock portfolio: international small-cap and emerging markets.

I have never held international bonds, and don't really have the opportunity, since I have long held my bonds in employer plans which do not offer international bond funds.

Thus my current allocation is 44% US stock, 44% foreign stock, 12% US bonds.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:46 pm This was mentioned in another thread, but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international:

Absolute return 23%
Venture capital 21.5%
Leveraged buyouts 16.5%
Foreign equity 13.75%
Real estate 10%
Bonds and cash 7%
Natural resources 5.5%
Domestic equity 2.75%

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities." Source
Which I am sure that you know is not at all what he recommends to an average investor. In fact he goes out of his way in his book "Unconventional Success" to say that there are 2 types of investors: us and him (or highly involved, educated and with unlimited leverage and resources to access things we cannot). There is nothing incremental in between. Instead he recommends we place no more than 30% or less than 5% of any asset class in our portfolio. He also says that every individual needs to look at the whole picture to make determinations on allocation such as home ownership, rental income stream, personal business ownership, risk tolerance, tax laws and time line of goals. His rough starting point was a suggestion for 30% U.S. common stock equities, 20% U.S. REITS (which effectively makes it 50% in risky U.S. assets), 15% developed international, 5% emerging markets (with the caveat that it is highly volatile and if it is a position held loosely with no conviction you shouldn't hold it at all) and finally 15% U.S.long term treasury bonds (although he later clarified to mean the average treasury duration of the market or about 10 years and 15% U.S. TIPS.) So unless we have access to 'absolute return, venture capital, leveraged buyouts and natural resources - which by the way are undoubtedly predominately U.S. based, I don't see the point of the suggested relevance. The one thing he never suggested (and like Jack Bogle) was to base investing decisions on current events or the latest headlines. Which I think is most at the heart of the OP thread.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by columbia »

Ferdinand2014 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:44 am
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:46 pm This was mentioned in another thread, but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international:

Absolute return 23%
Venture capital 21.5%
Leveraged buyouts 16.5%
Foreign equity 13.75%
Real estate 10%
Bonds and cash 7%
Natural resources 5.5%
Domestic equity 2.75%

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities." Source
Which I am sure that you know is not at all what he recommends to an average investor. In fact he goes out of his way in his book "Unconventional Success" to say that there are 2 types of investors: us and him (or highly involved, educated and with unlimited leverage and resources to access things we cannot). There is nothing incremental in between. Instead he recommends we place no more than 30% or less than 5% of any asset class in our portfolio. He also says that every individual needs to look at the whole picture to make determinations on allocation such as home ownership, rental income stream, personal business ownership, risk tolerance, tax laws and time line of goals. His rough starting point was a suggestion for 30% U.S. common stock equities, 20% U.S. REITS (which effectively makes it 50% in risky U.S. assets), 15% developed international, 5% emerging markets (with the caveat that it is highly volatile and if it is a position held loosely with no conviction you shouldn't hold it at all) and finally 15% U.S.long term treasury bonds (although he later clarified to mean the average treasury duration of the market or about 10 years and 15% U.S. TIPS.) So unless we have access to 'absolute return, venture capital, leveraged buyouts and natural resources - which by the way are undoubtedly predominately U.S. based, I don't see the point of the suggested relevance. The one thing he never suggested (and like Jack Bogle) was to base investing decisions on current events or the latest headlines. Which I think is most at the heart of the OP thread.

How Yale invests has nothing to do with my investing life. Then again that's also true of investors in a Brazil, Belgium, Japan, et al. Thinking that equity investing scenarios for every person in every country are and should be the same is, at best, silly.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

columbia wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:55 am
Ferdinand2014 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:44 am
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:46 pm This was mentioned in another thread, but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international:

Absolute return 23%
Venture capital 21.5%
Leveraged buyouts 16.5%
Foreign equity 13.75%
Real estate 10%
Bonds and cash 7%
Natural resources 5.5%
Domestic equity 2.75%

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities." Source
Which I am sure that you know is not at all what he recommends to an average investor. In fact he goes out of his way in his book "Unconventional Success" to say that there are 2 types of investors: us and him (or highly involved, educated and with unlimited leverage and resources to access things we cannot). There is nothing incremental in between. Instead he recommends we place no more than 30% or less than 5% of any asset class in our portfolio. He also says that every individual needs to look at the whole picture to make determinations on allocation such as home ownership, rental income stream, personal business ownership, risk tolerance, tax laws and time line of goals. His rough starting point was a suggestion for 30% U.S. common stock equities, 20% U.S. REITS (which effectively makes it 50% in risky U.S. assets), 15% developed international, 5% emerging markets (with the caveat that it is highly volatile and if it is a position held loosely with no conviction you shouldn't hold it at all) and finally 15% U.S.long term treasury bonds (although he later clarified to mean the average treasury duration of the market or about 10 years and 15% U.S. TIPS.) So unless we have access to 'absolute return, venture capital, leveraged buyouts and natural resources - which by the way are undoubtedly predominately U.S. based, I don't see the point of the suggested relevance. The one thing he never suggested (and like Jack Bogle) was to base investing decisions on current events or the latest headlines. Which I think is most at the heart of the OP thread.

How Yale invests has nothing to do with my investing life. Then again that's also true of investors in a Brazil, Belgium, Japan, et al. Thinking that equity investing scenarios for every person in every country are and should be the same is, at best, silly.
You said in one sentence what took me a long paragraph. :sharebeer
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Robot Monster »

Ferdinand2014 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:44 am
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:46 pm This was mentioned in another thread, but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international:

Absolute return 23%
Venture capital 21.5%
Leveraged buyouts 16.5%
Foreign equity 13.75%
Real estate 10%
Bonds and cash 7%
Natural resources 5.5%
Domestic equity 2.75%

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities." Source
Which I am sure that you know is not at all what he recommends to an average investor. In fact he goes out of his way in his book "Unconventional Success" to say that there are 2 types of investors: us and him (or highly involved, educated and with unlimited leverage and resources to access things we cannot). There is nothing incremental in between. Instead he recommends we place no more than 30% or less than 5% of any asset class in our portfolio. He also says that every individual needs to look at the whole picture to make determinations on allocation such as home ownership, rental income stream, personal business ownership, risk tolerance, tax laws and time line of goals. His rough starting point was a suggestion for 30% U.S. common stock equities, 20% U.S. REITS (which effectively makes it 50% in risky U.S. assets), 15% developed international, 5% emerging markets (with the caveat that it is highly volatile and if it is a position held loosely with no conviction you shouldn't hold it at all) and finally 15% U.S.long term treasury bonds (although he later clarified to mean the average treasury duration of the market or about 10 years and 15% U.S. TIPS.) So unless we have access to 'absolute return, venture capital, leveraged buyouts and natural resources - which by the way are undoubtedly predominately U.S. based, I don't see the point of the suggested relevance. The one thing he never suggested (and like Jack Bogle) was to base investing decisions on current events or the latest headlines. Which I think is most at the heart of the OP thread.
If it wasn't for one thing, I would not have posted about this. Bolded:

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities."

That perked my eyebrow up enough that I felt this information was worthwhile to share in this thread. Now, when it says "U.S. stocks," I'm interpreting that as not including REIT, as the article itself implies. So, if US stocks are indeed underweighted in the Yale endowment because of a disdain for it, I felt it perfectly valid to share that, and let the good people in this forum interpret it as they please.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:39 am
Ferdinand2014 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:44 am
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:46 pm This was mentioned in another thread, but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international:

Absolute return 23%
Venture capital 21.5%
Leveraged buyouts 16.5%
Foreign equity 13.75%
Real estate 10%
Bonds and cash 7%
Natural resources 5.5%
Domestic equity 2.75%

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities." Source
Which I am sure that you know is not at all what he recommends to an average investor. In fact he goes out of his way in his book "Unconventional Success" to say that there are 2 types of investors: us and him (or highly involved, educated and with unlimited leverage and resources to access things we cannot). There is nothing incremental in between. Instead he recommends we place no more than 30% or less than 5% of any asset class in our portfolio. He also says that every individual needs to look at the whole picture to make determinations on allocation such as home ownership, rental income stream, personal business ownership, risk tolerance, tax laws and time line of goals. His rough starting point was a suggestion for 30% U.S. common stock equities, 20% U.S. REITS (which effectively makes it 50% in risky U.S. assets), 15% developed international, 5% emerging markets (with the caveat that it is highly volatile and if it is a position held loosely with no conviction you shouldn't hold it at all) and finally 15% U.S.long term treasury bonds (although he later clarified to mean the average treasury duration of the market or about 10 years and 15% U.S. TIPS.) So unless we have access to 'absolute return, venture capital, leveraged buyouts and natural resources - which by the way are undoubtedly predominately U.S. based, I don't see the point of the suggested relevance. The one thing he never suggested (and like Jack Bogle) was to base investing decisions on current events or the latest headlines. Which I think is most at the heart of the OP thread.
If it wasn't for one thing, I would not have posted about this. Bolded:

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities."

That perked my eyebrow up enough that I felt this information was worthwhile to share in this thread. Now, when it says "U.S. stocks," I'm interpreting that as not including REIT, as the article itself implies. So, if US stocks are indeed underweighted in the Yale endowment because of a disdain for it, I felt it perfectly valid to share that, and let the good people in this forum interpret it as they please.
Marketwatch article authors use of the word 'disdain' seems misleading was my point. David Swensen's book for the average investor "Unconventional Success" does not state disdain for U.S. common stocks, but in fact states it is a core asset class. I agree the article raises an eyebrow. The validity of posting it was never a question for me and I appreciate the viewpoint you brought to our attention by this author at Marketwatch as it has provided additional discussion.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by abuss368 »

Ferdinand2014 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:06 am
columbia wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:55 am
Ferdinand2014 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:44 am
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:46 pm This was mentioned in another thread, but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international:

Absolute return 23%
Venture capital 21.5%
Leveraged buyouts 16.5%
Foreign equity 13.75%
Real estate 10%
Bonds and cash 7%
Natural resources 5.5%
Domestic equity 2.75%

"Swensen long has disdained U.S. stocks despite their impressive performance, and Yale’s endowment has a weighting of just 2.25% in domestic equities." Source
Which I am sure that you know is not at all what he recommends to an average investor. In fact he goes out of his way in his book "Unconventional Success" to say that there are 2 types of investors: us and him (or highly involved, educated and with unlimited leverage and resources to access things we cannot). There is nothing incremental in between. Instead he recommends we place no more than 30% or less than 5% of any asset class in our portfolio. He also says that every individual needs to look at the whole picture to make determinations on allocation such as home ownership, rental income stream, personal business ownership, risk tolerance, tax laws and time line of goals. His rough starting point was a suggestion for 30% U.S. common stock equities, 20% U.S. REITS (which effectively makes it 50% in risky U.S. assets), 15% developed international, 5% emerging markets (with the caveat that it is highly volatile and if it is a position held loosely with no conviction you shouldn't hold it at all) and finally 15% U.S.long term treasury bonds (although he later clarified to mean the average treasury duration of the market or about 10 years and 15% U.S. TIPS.) So unless we have access to 'absolute return, venture capital, leveraged buyouts and natural resources - which by the way are undoubtedly predominately U.S. based, I don't see the point of the suggested relevance. The one thing he never suggested (and like Jack Bogle) was to base investing decisions on current events or the latest headlines. Which I think is most at the heart of the OP thread.

How Yale invests has nothing to do with my investing life. Then again that's also true of investors in a Brazil, Belgium, Japan, et al. Thinking that equity investing scenarios for every person in every country are and should be the same is, at best, silly.
You said in one sentence what took me a long paragraph. :sharebeer
I consider myself fortunate to have attended a lecture by David Swensen of Yale. I provided summary of the experience to the forum a few years ago.

David Swensen talked at length during the lecture about how investors can not replicate (and should not try) or mirror the Yale Endowment fund. That is why he chose to write "Unconventional Success".
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by abuss368 »

mx0 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:06 pm I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest.
If you invest in Vanguard Total International Stock Index, how would you be able to "target" countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest?
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by abuss368 »

mx0 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:06 pm I am from the US and I know the consensus is that international is usually allocated as a smaller portion of your portfolio, but does anyone invest a large majority of their portfolio (60%-80%?) in international? I am concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term (greater than 20 years) and am considering significantly weighting my equities towards international, even more than the world balance of economic/market size of US/int.. I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest. I am interested in your thoughts on this.
I am the exact opposite. I am more pro-US than ever when looking at the rest of the world. Jack Bogle has an interview (on YouTube) that I watched last night where he stated UK not looking good with Brexit and government, France trying to pass a 35 hour workweek, Japan has the oldest workforce and will have declining productivity for decades, and Germany is largely export driven with no services economy. He said it was not wise to invest in that.

I invested in Total International for a very long time and it was nothing short of a disappointment. I think I would be more comfortable buying a Technology fund than international at this point and sleeping well. The past, present, and future is technology. I do not see many technology companies internationally.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by lostdog »

abuss368 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:24 pm
mx0 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:06 pm I am from the US and I know the consensus is that international is usually allocated as a smaller portion of your portfolio, but does anyone invest a large majority of their portfolio (60%-80%?) in international? I am concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term (greater than 20 years) and am considering significantly weighting my equities towards international, even more than the world balance of economic/market size of US/int.. I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest. I am interested in your thoughts on this.
I am the exact opposite. I am more pro-US than ever when looking at the rest of the world. Jack Bogle has an interview (on YouTube) that I watched last night where he stated UK not looking good with Brexit and government, France trying to pass a 35 hour workweek, Japan has the oldest workforce and will have declining productivity for decades, and Germany is largely export driven with no services economy. He said it was not wise to invest in that.

I invested in Total International for a very long time and it was nothing short of a disappointment. I think I would be more comfortable buying a Technology fund than international at this point and sleeping well. The past, present, and future is technology. I do not see many technology companies internationally.
You mean you have a crystal ball and chase performance. What do Jack and Warren think of that?
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Robot Monster »

abuss368 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:24 pm Japan has the oldest workforce and will have declining productivity for decades...
Japan interests me. Japan has a dwindling population which "will fall by a further 8 million by 2030 unless changes are made," and a good part of their existing population is old and and gray. "Japan has the highest old-age dependency ratio of all OECD countries – there is one person over 65 for every two people between the ages of 20 and 64. And this ratio is rising." Source

Yet, when I was perusing Franklin Templeton's single country funds, was surprised to find their Japan ETF to be, by far, the most popular.

Franklin FTSE Canada ETF (FLCA) -- $6.07 Million
Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB) -- $75.67 Million
Franklin FTSE Australia ETF (FLAU) -- $13.98 Million
Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF (FLSW) -- $16.72 Million

and...(drum roll)...

Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (FLJP) -- $451.92 Million

Holy forking shirtballs, that's a whopper! But...why?

Also, if the problem with international exposure more has to do with the countries represented in the index, why are the country holdings of the actively managed Vanguard International Core Stock Fund so similar to the index? Again, Japan...in the index it's 16.7%, in the Core fund it's 14.2%. Even Vanguard International Growth Fund is 9.9% Japan.
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by 7eight9 »

abuss368 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:24 pm
mx0 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:06 pm I am from the US and I know the consensus is that international is usually allocated as a smaller portion of your portfolio, but does anyone invest a large majority of their portfolio (60%-80%?) in international? I am concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term (greater than 20 years) and am considering significantly weighting my equities towards international, even more than the world balance of economic/market size of US/int.. I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest. I am interested in your thoughts on this.
I am the exact opposite. I am more pro-US than ever when looking at the rest of the world. Jack Bogle has an interview (on YouTube) that I watched last night where he stated UK not looking good with Brexit and government, France trying to pass a 35 hour workweek, Japan has the oldest workforce and will have declining productivity for decades, and Germany is largely export driven with no services economy. He said it was not wise to invest in that.

I invested in Total International for a very long time and it was nothing short of a disappointment. I think I would be more comfortable buying a Technology fund than international at this point and sleeping well. The past, present, and future is technology. I do not see many technology companies internationally.
Fortune Global 500 list of technology sector companies for 2019 (company | rank)

Samsung Electronics - 2
Foxconn - 3
Huawei - 6
Hitachi - 8
Sony - 10
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... by_revenue

Five of the top ten are outside the United States. Two of the top three. You weren't looking hard enough. :happy
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Robot Monster
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Robot Monster »

7eight9 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:28 pm
abuss368 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:24 pm I do not see many technology companies internationally.
Fortune Global 500 list of technology sector companies for 2019 (company | rank)

Samsung Electronics - 2
Foxconn - 3
Huawei - 6
Hitachi - 8
Sony - 10
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... by_revenue

Five of the top ten are outside the United States. Two of the top three. You weren't looking hard enough. :happy
My personal favorite is,

ASML Holding N.V. is a Dutch company and currently the largest supplier in the world of photolithography systems for the semiconductor industry. The company manufactures machines for the production of integrated circuits.

See its performance against QQQ.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
Actin
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Actin »

This is a ridiculous strategy. You're market timing by tilting international and you've essentially "picked the flowers and watered the weeds" for the past thirteen years.
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abuss368
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by abuss368 »

lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:34 pm
abuss368 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:24 pm
mx0 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:06 pm I am from the US and I know the consensus is that international is usually allocated as a smaller portion of your portfolio, but does anyone invest a large majority of their portfolio (60%-80%?) in international? I am concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term (greater than 20 years) and am considering significantly weighting my equities towards international, even more than the world balance of economic/market size of US/int.. I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest. I am interested in your thoughts on this.
I am the exact opposite. I am more pro-US than ever when looking at the rest of the world. Jack Bogle has an interview (on YouTube) that I watched last night where he stated UK not looking good with Brexit and government, France trying to pass a 35 hour workweek, Japan has the oldest workforce and will have declining productivity for decades, and Germany is largely export driven with no services economy. He said it was not wise to invest in that.

I invested in Total International for a very long time and it was nothing short of a disappointment. I think I would be more comfortable buying a Technology fund than international at this point and sleeping well. The past, present, and future is technology. I do not see many technology companies internationally.
You mean you have a crystal ball and chase performance. What do Jack and Warren think of that?
I agree with you that the Two Fund Portfolio is an excellent choice!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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abuss368
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by abuss368 »

Actin wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:20 pm This is a ridiculous strategy. You're market timing by tilting international and you've essentially "picked the flowers and watered the weeds" for the past thirteen years.
That is a fair way of looking at things based on recent performance.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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abuss368
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by abuss368 »

lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:34 pm
abuss368 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:24 pm
mx0 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:06 pm I am from the US and I know the consensus is that international is usually allocated as a smaller portion of your portfolio, but does anyone invest a large majority of their portfolio (60%-80%?) in international? I am concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term (greater than 20 years) and am considering significantly weighting my equities towards international, even more than the world balance of economic/market size of US/int.. I would ideally target countries that appear to be stable with less citizen unrest. I am interested in your thoughts on this.
I am the exact opposite. I am more pro-US than ever when looking at the rest of the world. Jack Bogle has an interview (on YouTube) that I watched last night where he stated UK not looking good with Brexit and government, France trying to pass a 35 hour workweek, Japan has the oldest workforce and will have declining productivity for decades, and Germany is largely export driven with no services economy. He said it was not wise to invest in that.

I invested in Total International for a very long time and it was nothing short of a disappointment. I think I would be more comfortable buying a Technology fund than international at this point and sleeping well. The past, present, and future is technology. I do not see many technology companies internationally.
You mean you have a crystal ball and chase performance. What do Jack and Warren think of that?
Mr. Bogle and Mr. Buffet think the Two Fund Portfolio is an excellent strategy!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Robot Monster
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Robot Monster »

Actin wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:20 pm This is a ridiculous strategy. You're market timing by tilting international...
OP said being "concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term" was the reason to underweight it. Are people who are concerned and skeptical about the long term prospects of such places as Japan and Europe market timing by choosing to underweight them, or not to invest there at all?
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Actin
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Actin »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:04 am
Actin wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:20 pm This is a ridiculous strategy. You're market timing by tilting international...
OP said being "concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term" was the reason to underweight it. Are people who are concerned and skeptical about the long term prospects of such places as Japan and Europe market timing by choosing to underweight them, or not to invest there at all?
To be fair, isn't it market timing no matter how you choose to invest
Robot Monster
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by Robot Monster »

Actin wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:14 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:04 am
Actin wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:20 pm This is a ridiculous strategy. You're market timing by tilting international...
OP said being "concerned and skeptical about the US over the long term" was the reason to underweight it. Are people who are concerned and skeptical about the long term prospects of such places as Japan and Europe market timing by choosing to underweight them, or not to invest there at all?
To be fair, isn't it market timing no matter how you choose to invest
Depends on your definition of market timing, I suppose.
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abuss368
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Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

Post by abuss368 »

7eight9 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:28 pm
Fortune Global 500 list of technology sector companies for 2019 (company | rank)

Samsung Electronics - 2
Foxconn - 3
Huawei - 6
Hitachi - 8
Sony - 10
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... by_revenue

Five of the top ten are outside the United States. Two of the top three. You weren't looking hard enough. :happy
No that is interesting. Thank you for providing.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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