Is anyone waiting until after the election?

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tesuzuki2002
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:26 pm
The article starts off, "Investors are trying to figure out what's ahead for the stock market...," and that, folks, is what the problem is. Might as well be, " Investors continue banging their head against the wall hoping to gain insight... "
I rarely believe much of anything I read or see by the media any more... most of of it is sensational reporting anyway... it does little for me.

But I do Love your take on the first line... Your version sounds way better!!! You should submit to cnn for a writing job.

Cheers !

:sharebeer
drk
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by drk »

bigskyguy wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:52 pm an economic infection point
This typo provides an apt name for the COVID-19 shock.
JHU ALmuni
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by JHU ALmuni »

muffins14 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:32 pm It’s 6% of your portfolio. Even if it went to zero after the election, it might not even trigger a rebalance event.

Just invest it
Yes only 6% but doesn't mean OP don't care to maximize rate of return.
alfaspider
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by alfaspider »

The election-related stuff shouldn't be acted upon because most will fall into the trap of assuming their favored candidate will be better for the market. But the market doesn't really care who your favorite candidate is.

Even though you will see various Wall Street types opining about what the market "wants", the truth is that the outcome of a presidential election rarely adds much clarity to the investment outlook.
Van
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by Van »

alfaspider wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:28 pm The election-related stuff shouldn't be acted upon because most will fall into the trap of assuming their favored candidate will be better for the market. But the market doesn't really care who your favorite candidate is.

Even though you will see various Wall Street types opining about what the market "wants", the truth is that the outcome of a presidential election rarely adds much clarity to the investment outlook.
It's not the outcome of the election that some worry about, it is the possibility of the country being thrown into unprecidented turmoil that could well affect the market.
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firebirdparts
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by firebirdparts »

Imaginary news of the future. It's everywhere. Can't get away from it. Evidently there's no market anymore in the news game for things that actually happened.
A fool and your money are soon partners
vwgrrc
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by vwgrrc »

Van wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:41 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:28 pm The election-related stuff shouldn't be acted upon because most will fall into the trap of assuming their favored candidate will be better for the market. But the market doesn't really care who your favorite candidate is.

Even though you will see various Wall Street types opining about what the market "wants", the truth is that the outcome of a presidential election rarely adds much clarity to the investment outlook.
It's not the outcome of the election that some worry about, it is the possibility of the country being thrown into unprecidented turmoil that could well affect the market.
True. And the possibilities of that happen is not entirely zero IMO. I'm a little concern the whole mail-in vote thing (and the counting job) won't work as smooth as it should be. Hope I was wrong!
alfaspider
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by alfaspider »

Van wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:41 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:28 pm The election-related stuff shouldn't be acted upon because most will fall into the trap of assuming their favored candidate will be better for the market. But the market doesn't really care who your favorite candidate is.

Even though you will see various Wall Street types opining about what the market "wants", the truth is that the outcome of a presidential election rarely adds much clarity to the investment outlook.
It's not the outcome of the election that some worry about, it is the possibility of the country being thrown into unprecidented turmoil that could well affect the market.
Any turmoil will ultimately be transitory. Eventually, one candidate will emerge as a victor (almost certainly before the year is out).
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JoMoney
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by JoMoney »

Yes, lots of people will wait and otherwise try to 'time' the market. Maybe they'll turn out to be right, maybe not...
Don't know, don't care... I'll keep averaging in over time and get in at the average price available to me over my investment horizon.
My broad expectation is that the stock market will go up over long time periods, even if I don't know what will happen over the short-run. If I didn't believe that I wouldn't be buying stocks at all. If I thought I could make money timing when to get in and out I wouldn't be on this board.
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guyinlaw
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by guyinlaw »

Loandapper wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:29 pm I know, I know: Time in the market, not timing the market.

BUT:

I have some new cash (about 6% of total portfolio) and I'm curious whether anyone else is waiting until after the US election in 45 days?
DCA over 6-12 months might be ok, if you are worrying about it. Write a plan and implement it. (lump sum is the best, if you can stick with it)
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by JonnyDVM »

Didn’t investors learn not to do this after the last election? Don’t try to time the market based on a gut feeling. Just ride out and roll with the punches.
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quantAndHold
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by quantAndHold »

alfaspider wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:28 pm The election-related stuff shouldn't be acted upon because most will fall into the trap of assuming their favored candidate will be better for the market. But the market doesn't really care who your favorite candidate is.

Even though you will see various Wall Street types opining about what the market "wants", the truth is that the outcome of a presidential election rarely adds much clarity to the investment outlook.
Historically, the markets have behaved about the same, regardless of which party was in charge. People, of one political persuasion or another, tend to be either confident or scared if their person or the other guy wins, but reality doesn’t usually bear that out in he fullness of time.

I’m concerned about valuations relative to what’s going on in the economy, but none of what I’m worried about is likely to work itself out precisely on November 4.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
phantom0308
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by phantom0308 »

Why wait until after the election? Is that Election Day or the day it’s called? Why not wait until January 20th or Q1 earnings or some other meaningful day?
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by whodidntante »

Wow, this doomed to be locked thread has made it to page 3! :twisted:
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ray.james
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by ray.james »

I don't know where I read it but surmising:

Capitalists and companies adjust accordingly and continue to make profit. It may be more or less than before but they will sure change course to new regulations like rivers to make profit.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
ElJefeDelQueso
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by ElJefeDelQueso »

Loandapper wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:29 pm I know, I know: Time in the market, not timing the market.

BUT:

I have some new cash (about 6% of total portfolio) and I'm curious whether anyone else is waiting until after the US election in 45 days?
What's interesting is that before an election, 100% of the public is uncertain or upset. After an election roughly 50% will be upset or uncertain. Better to buy before the election, in my opinion.
000
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by 000 »

ElJefeDelQueso wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:23 am
Loandapper wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:29 pm I know, I know: Time in the market, not timing the market.

BUT:

I have some new cash (about 6% of total portfolio) and I'm curious whether anyone else is waiting until after the US election in 45 days?
What's interesting is that before an election, 100% of the public is uncertain or upset. After an election roughly 50% will be upset or uncertain. Better to buy before the election, in my opinion.
One of the most insightful comments I've seen.
t00sl0w
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by t00sl0w »

nope, not waiting, the lizard people control everything and they wont lose money, so.
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JamalJones
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by JamalJones »

nisiprius wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:32 pm The difference makes me think personally that this is just noise. More interesting are the average by presidential year of office: 7.7%, 3.0%, 13.0%, and 8.4% for the first, second, third, and fourth years. So it is actually the third term that is the best. I am just reporting what I see in the book, not suggesting doing anything about it.
LadyGeek wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:39 am This is a "no politics" forum. An off-topic post expressing a political preference has been removed.
This discussion is about timing the market relative to the upcoming federal elections. Please stay focused on the investing aspects.


I agree. We definitely do not want to start talking about "third terms". Oh boy, we don't.
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muffins14
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by muffins14 »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:23 pm
muffins14 wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:32 pm It’s 6% of your portfolio. Even if it went to zero after the election, it might not even trigger a rebalance event.

Just invest it
Yes only 6% but doesn't mean OP don't care to maximize rate of return.
Yes but the OP has 66% chance of maximizing return by investing it lump-sum rather than market-timing
novemberrain
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by novemberrain »

The Federal Reserve is not on the ballot :)
The Fed put will be intact, no matter who wins. But yes, I agree, if one of the more pro-business current candidate wins, there could be a chance of a yuuge pop in stock market. And if the other candidate wins, my tax rate is gonna have a yuuge pop.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by novemberrain »

ElJefeDelQueso wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:23 am
Loandapper wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:29 pm I know, I know: Time in the market, not timing the market.

BUT:

I have some new cash (about 6% of total portfolio) and I'm curious whether anyone else is waiting until after the US election in 45 days?
What's interesting is that before an election, 100% of the public is uncertain or upset. After an election roughly 50% will be upset or uncertain. Better to buy before the election, in my opinion.
Why 50% will be uncertain after election ? I mean I can understand why 50% will be upset. But why would they be uncertain as well ?
texanghost
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by texanghost »

No, I'm not waiting. I got an RSU vest a few weeks ago that's back into total bond, total stock, and total international stock at my desired allocations.

When I do get a larger amount like that, I dollar cost average it. However, I don't quite do it blindly. I give myself a timeline of say, a few weeks, and buy if there's a dip. I haven't worked out if this is a good strategy or not, but it seems to be reasonable since I'm still dollar cost averaging with a little flexibility. I bought the dip yesterday (9/23) and Monday (9/21).

Like a lot of other folks here, I'm also ready to rebalance.

Let's see what happens! :beer
markcoop
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by markcoop »

At times I think we tend to lump all market timing strategies together. Someone moving 100% out of stocks is very different than someone holding off on some contributions that they will make at some point this year. For me, I am waiting for a good opportunity to shift some 401k money out of stocks and at the same time put more stocks into Roth accounts. It comes down to understanding and accepting the risks of waiting. I never felt comfortable totally ignoring the climate we are in.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by sergeant »

Nope. Timing based on elections doesn't lead to optimal results. Just look at the last election.
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casualflower
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by casualflower »

ElJefeDelQueso wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:23 amWhat's interesting is that before an election, 100% of the public is uncertain or upset. After an election roughly 50% will be upset or uncertain. Better to buy before the election, in my opinion.
milktoast wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:44 pm Well... supposedly the market hates uncertainty... so isn't there a risk of a post-election pop?
What if the election results are contested and there's two months between the election and inauguration day when the US doesn't know who the president will be? That's a huge amount of uncertainty and the market could crater in the interregnum.


Don't the negative connotations of "market timing" require buying/selling based on performance, not necessarily a date?

If I pledged today moving $100K from cash to s&P 500 on January 20th regardless of market conditions (and follow through, maybe in some automated process), that just loses 4 months of time in market, but avoids a lot of the other negative aspects of timing. Right?
JD2775
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by JD2775 »

casualflower wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:04 pm
ElJefeDelQueso wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:23 amWhat's interesting is that before an election, 100% of the public is uncertain or upset. After an election roughly 50% will be upset or uncertain. Better to buy before the election, in my opinion.
milktoast wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:44 pm Well... supposedly the market hates uncertainty... so isn't there a risk of a post-election pop?
What if the election results are contested and there's two months between the election and inauguration day when the US doesn't know who the president will be? That's a huge amount of uncertainty and the market could crater in the interregnum.


Don't the negative connotations of "market timing" require buying/selling based on performance, not necessarily a date?

If I pledged today moving $100K from cash to s&P 500 on January 20th regardless of market conditions (and follow through, maybe in some automated process), that just loses 4 months of time in market, but avoids a lot of the other negative aspects of timing. Right?
Not necessarily. What happens if the S&P500 on January 20th is above where it is now? You've lost out on 4 months of gains had you just put in the $100k today.

I think the point is no one knows what's going to happen

EDIT: sorry, I read your question wrong. I was assuming you had the 100k today, and I thought you were referring to negative aspects of the market itself over the next 4 months (not market timing).
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by Actmck3 »

My 2cents is that the election will not have as profound an effect as will the COVID situation as it relates to the economy, unemployment, the FED and QE, our national debt, etc..
Interest rates so low that banks don’t want to lend. Unless money lets into peoples hands and they SPEND it, we are fooked. There are MANY people hurting right now. And, with all this uncertainty, there has to be a correction coming upon us.

These overinflated stock values have to return to the mean.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by Seasonal »

Actmck3 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:56 pm My 2cents is that the election will not have as profound an effect as will the COVID situation as it relates to the economy, unemployment, the FED and QE, our national debt, etc..
Interest rates so low that banks don’t want to lend. Unless money lets into peoples hands and they SPEND it, we are fooked. There are MANY people hurting right now. And, with all this uncertainty, there has to be a correction coming upon us.

These overinflated stock values have to return to the mean.
The election may have an effect on the COVID situation.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by tibbitts »

Seasonal wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:08 pm
Actmck3 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:56 pm My 2cents is that the election will not have as profound an effect as will the COVID situation as it relates to the economy, unemployment, the FED and QE, our national debt, etc..
Interest rates so low that banks don’t want to lend. Unless money lets into peoples hands and they SPEND it, we are fooked. There are MANY people hurting right now. And, with all this uncertainty, there has to be a correction coming upon us.

These overinflated stock values have to return to the mean.
The election may have an effect on the COVID situation.
True but half the people believe it will impact it positively if one candidate/party wins; the other half believes the opposite.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by 000 »

casualflower wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:04 pm What if the election results are contested and there's two months between the election and inauguration day when the US doesn't know who the president will be? That's a huge amount of uncertainty and the market could crater in the interregnum.
Well, there is already an established process for handling this. Read about Congress's role in the Presidential Election process.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by antwerp »

"Staying the course". "Let the chips fall where they may"
Seasonal
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by Seasonal »

tibbitts wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:12 pm
Seasonal wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:08 pm
Actmck3 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:56 pm My 2cents is that the election will not have as profound an effect as will the COVID situation as it relates to the economy, unemployment, the FED and QE, our national debt, etc..
Interest rates so low that banks don’t want to lend. Unless money lets into peoples hands and they SPEND it, we are fooked. There are MANY people hurting right now. And, with all this uncertainty, there has to be a correction coming upon us.

These overinflated stock values have to return to the mean.
The election may have an effect on the COVID situation.
True but half the people believe it will impact it positively if one candidate/party wins; the other half believes the opposite.
You might want to look at recent polling data.
casualflower
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by casualflower »

000 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:13 pm
casualflower wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:04 pm What if the election results are contested and there's two months between the election and inauguration day when the US doesn't know who the president will be? That's a huge amount of uncertainty and the market could crater in the interregnum.
Well, there is already an established process for handling this. Read about Congress's role in the Presidential Election process.
I've read quite a bit, thank you very much. That's how I've come to understand that if candidates dispute the result of the election, it will be very hard to resolve. There is no "established process". There are some laws, which have never been used and which are open to interpretation. To think a divided US Congress can successfully navigate that process is calamitously optimistic.
000
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by 000 »

casualflower wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:56 pm
000 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:13 pm
casualflower wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:04 pm What if the election results are contested and there's two months between the election and inauguration day when the US doesn't know who the president will be? That's a huge amount of uncertainty and the market could crater in the interregnum.
Well, there is already an established process for handling this. Read about Congress's role in the Presidential Election process.
I've read quite a bit, thank you very much. That's how I've come to understand that if candidates dispute the result of the election, it will be very hard to resolve. There is no "established process". There are some laws, which have never been used and which are open to interpretation. To think a divided US Congress can successfully navigate that process is calamitously optimistic.
If no candidate has enough electoral votes as counted by Congress, there is an explicit Constitutional provision for how and by whom the offices will be filled. That is also done by Congress. Whether or not a candidate contests it does not matter. Lookup the 1824 election.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by LadyGeek »

This discussion is about timing the market relative to the upcoming federal elections. Please stay focused on the investing aspects.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by DSBH »

Between which party would control the White House, the Senate, the House, and whether the Supreme Court will have 8 or 9 members after Election Day, there are in theory 16 possible scenarios. If you are going to wait till after the election before deciding what to do, do you have a plan for each of the 16 possible scenarios? Just wondering.
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ResearchMed
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by ResearchMed »

000 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:56 pm
casualflower wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:56 pm
000 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:13 pm
casualflower wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:04 pm What if the election results are contested and there's two months between the election and inauguration day when the US doesn't know who the president will be? That's a huge amount of uncertainty and the market could crater in the interregnum.
Well, there is already an established process for handling this. Read about Congress's role in the Presidential Election process.
I've read quite a bit, thank you very much. That's how I've come to understand that if candidates dispute the result of the election, it will be very hard to resolve. There is no "established process". There are some laws, which have never been used and which are open to interpretation. To think a divided US Congress can successfully navigate that process is calamitously optimistic.
If no candidate has enough electoral votes as counted by Congress, there is an explicit Constitutional provision for how and by whom the offices will be filled. That is also done by Congress. Whether or not a candidate contests it does not matter. Lookup the 1824 election.
Right, of course.
However, those "rules" assume that everyone will play by those rules, and accept the procedures and outcome. And that there won't be major civil unrest. (And with almost instantaneous communication of *anything*, things can happen very fast indeed.)

That type of "problem", what "the market" will do in response, and what investors can/should do... and importantly, what WE should do (for all of the "we's" around)... that is the financial concern.
And not everyone (even here on BH) is content to sit by without at least considering whether there is "anything we could/should do".

We were just watching a replay of Reagan's acceptance speech, with his gracious comment to Carter.
As the younger folks say, "If only...."
"If only..." the 2020 election would be similarly civil, then sure... no problems... and no unusual financial concerns to worry about this election year.

RM
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index245
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by index245 »

DSBH wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:24 pm Between which party would control the White House, the Senate, the House, and whether the Supreme Court will have 8 or 9 members after Election Day, there are in theory 16 possible scenarios. If you are going to wait till after the election before deciding what to do, do you have a plan for each of the 16 possible scenarios? Just wondering.
There is also the fact that nobody knows how any of those sixteen scenarios will affect the markets.

My solution is to keep what I have and continue investing on a weekly basis as well. Is that the correct solution? Time will tell.

In a few months I might wish that I had cashed out and started a "...when should I re-enter the market" thread. :sharebeer
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by whereskyle »

Loandapper wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:29 pm I know, I know: Time in the market, not timing the market.

BUT:

I have some new cash (about 6% of total portfolio) and I'm curious whether anyone else is waiting until after the US election in 45 days?
Nope. Just buying. Glad prices have come down a bit.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
tibbitts
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by tibbitts »

Seasonal wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:16 pm
tibbitts wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:12 pm
Seasonal wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:08 pm
Actmck3 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:56 pm My 2cents is that the election will not have as profound an effect as will the COVID situation as it relates to the economy, unemployment, the FED and QE, our national debt, etc..
Interest rates so low that banks don’t want to lend. Unless money lets into peoples hands and they SPEND it, we are fooked. There are MANY people hurting right now. And, with all this uncertainty, there has to be a correction coming upon us.

These overinflated stock values have to return to the mean.
The election may have an effect on the COVID situation.
True but half the people believe it will impact it positively if one candidate/party wins; the other half believes the opposite.
You might want to look at recent polling data.
Okay, roughly half, whatever. And you might want to spend less time looking at polling data.
000
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by 000 »

ResearchMed wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:27 pm Right, of course.
However, those "rules" assume that everyone will play by those rules, and accept the procedures and outcome. And that there won't be major civil unrest. (And with almost instantaneous communication of *anything*, things can happen very fast indeed.)

That type of "problem", what "the market" will do in response, and what investors can/should do... and importantly, what WE should do (for all of the "we's" around)... that is the financial concern.
And not everyone (even here on BH) is content to sit by without at least considering whether there is "anything we could/should do".

We were just watching a replay of Reagan's acceptance speech, with his gracious comment to Carter.
As the younger folks say, "If only...."
"If only..." the 2020 election would be similarly civil, then sure... no problems... and no unusual financial concerns to worry about this election year.

RM
Well, per the mod's request above, all I will say is the US has weathered at least one bitterly contested presidential election before (1824), acrimonious and divided politics (Adams wouldn't even meet Jefferson at the White House), and civil unrest and war.

Staying the course with US stocks worked before.

It could fail this time.

But if it does, clever stock timing won't save you.

Market time political events at your own risk.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by DSBH »

index245 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:31 pm
DSBH wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:24 pm Between which party would control the White House, the Senate, the House, and whether the Supreme Court will have 8 or 9 members after Election Day, there are in theory 16 possible scenarios. If you are going to wait till after the election before deciding what to do, do you have a plan for each of the 16 possible scenarios? Just wondering.
There is also the fact that nobody knows how any of those sixteen scenarios will affect the markets.

My solution is to keep what I have and continue investing on a weekly basis as well. Is that the correct solution? Time will tell.

In a few months I might wish that I had cashed out and started a "...when should I re-enter the market" thread. :sharebeer
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ResearchMed
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by ResearchMed »

000 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:40 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:27 pm Right, of course.
However, those "rules" assume that everyone will play by those rules, and accept the procedures and outcome. And that there won't be major civil unrest. (And with almost instantaneous communication of *anything*, things can happen very fast indeed.)

That type of "problem", what "the market" will do in response, and what investors can/should do... and importantly, what WE should do (for all of the "we's" around)... that is the financial concern.
And not everyone (even here on BH) is content to sit by without at least considering whether there is "anything we could/should do".

We were just watching a replay of Reagan's acceptance speech, with his gracious comment to Carter.
As the younger folks say, "If only...."
"If only..." the 2020 election would be similarly civil, then sure... no problems... and no unusual financial concerns to worry about this election year.

RM
Well, per the mod's request above, all I will say is the US has weathered at least one bitterly contested presidential election before (1824), acrimonious and divided politics (Adams wouldn't even meet Jefferson at the White House), and civil unrest and war.

Staying the course with US stocks worked before.

It could fail this time.

But if it does, clever stock timing won't save you.

Market time political events at your own risk.
This is also about "risk aversion", much like the ongoing discussion/debate here about Lump Sum vs. Dollar Cost Averaging... or even just the "what percentage in equities" question...

For some of us, we would rather take what *might* (but might not!) be a somewhat lesser return, in exchange for less risk of a "much lower return".
And that choice can vary a lot with age and "how much of what one will need one already has".

We aren't all in the same situation, and we don't all have the same risk/etc., preferences.
That suggests/means that there can indeed be different strategies that actually make sense, given the priorities of different people.

RM
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hornet96
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by hornet96 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 6:46 pm
Loandapper wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:29 pm I know, I know: Time in the market, not timing the market.

BUT:

I have some new cash (about 6% of total portfolio) and I'm curious whether anyone else is waiting until after the US election in 45 days?
Q: When should I buy?
A: When you have the money.

Q: When should I sell?
A: When you need the money.

If you have the money and don't need the money, then why isn't it invested? Fear, pure and simple. how's that working?
Excellent summary. I would just add that if you have the money and don’t need it currently, every day it remains uninvested is an active portfolio decision that represents market timing in-and-of itself.
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by 000 »

ResearchMed wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:55 pm This is also about "risk aversion", much like the ongoing discussion/debate here about Lump Sum vs. Dollar Cost Averaging... or even just the "what percentage in equities" question...

For some of us, we would rather take what *might* (but might not!) be a somewhat lesser return, in exchange for less risk of a "much lower return".
And that choice can vary a lot with age and "how much of what one will need one already has".

We aren't all in the same situation, and we don't all have the same risk/etc., preferences.
That suggests/means that there can indeed be different strategies that actually make sense, given the priorities of different people.
Where would a person choosing to defer an equity purchase until after the election put the money? USD denominated cash or bonds?
guyinlaw
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by guyinlaw »

"Market" seems to be currently OK with any of the outcome. Even a possibility long drawn-out uncertainty and possible unrest. (stocks are up today) I guess Pfizer and Moderna will save us somewhere between now and August 2021.

Though I am pessimistic, I am holding more stocks than ever.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by Robot Monster »

In my portfolio, the funny money portion, I own a China ETF, and two defense industry stocks. My guess is that one off the other type will do well depending on who wins, am curious to see how that works out, and enjoy having both so I win either way (if I'm right in my analysis, of course, which I do suppose is a big presumption.)
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by bigskyguy »

000 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:47 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:55 pm This is also about "risk aversion", much like the ongoing discussion/debate here about Lump Sum vs. Dollar Cost Averaging... or even just the "what percentage in equities" question...

For some of us, we would rather take what *might* (but might not!) be a somewhat lesser return, in exchange for less risk of a "much lower return".
And that choice can vary a lot with age and "how much of what one will need one already has".

We aren't all in the same situation, and we don't all have the same risk/etc., preferences.
That suggests/means that there can indeed be different strategies that actually make sense, given the priorities of different people.
Where would a person choosing to defer an equity purchase until after the election put the money? USD denominated cash or bonds?
The investing world looks very different when one’s portfolio is a depository that will lie untouched for decades, and when one’s portfolio will be paying for this week’s groceries, next week’s credit card Bill, or next month’s Medicare supplement charge. For those of us in the latter category, a potential political morass can directly disrupt decades of diligent savings and planning. Risk aversion is not simply a theoretical construct, it is a reality check with potential monumental implications.
000
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Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Post by 000 »

bigskyguy wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:30 pm
000 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:47 pm Where would a person choosing to defer an equity purchase until after the election put the money? USD denominated cash or bonds?
The investing world looks very different when one’s portfolio is a depository that will lie untouched for decades, and when one’s portfolio will be paying for this week’s groceries, next week’s credit card Bill, or next month’s Medicare supplement charge. For those of us in the latter category, a potential political morass can directly disrupt decades of diligent savings and planning. Risk aversion is not simply a theoretical construct, it is a reality check with potential monumental implications.
I don't disagree. But the question stands: where if not US stocks?
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