I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

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KlangFool
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I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by KlangFool »

Folks,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ted_States

I have been quoting that historically since 1836, there has been at least one US recession every 10 years. I was wrong. 2020 recession is 10 years 8 months from the 2007/2009 recession. This time is different.


KlangFool
66Sally
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by 66Sally »

Interesting history lesson on recessions!
GAAP
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by GAAP »

Rounding error...

It's a "good-enough" number -- no harm, no foul.
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Goal33
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by Goal33 »

All is forgiven
JBTX
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by JBTX »

The difference seems to be that between 10+ years the recessions were 2 of the worst in history. We seem to be able to engineer our way out of normal recessions with fed policy/ financial engineering. But eventually something comes along that is overwhelming and you have a dramatic reversal.
flaccidsteele
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by flaccidsteele »

This is the only reason why “being greedy when others are fearful” works

Invest regularly. Buy more during inevitable downturns

The US market always recovers. Always. It’s never different this time

I beat the US market by buying... the US market 😂💸
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
pasadena
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by pasadena »

I don't know that I'll ever be able to forgive you, KlangFool.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by CyclingDuo »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:52 am Folks,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ted_States

I have been quoting that historically since 1836, there has been at least one US recession every 10 years. I was wrong. 2020 recession is 10 years 8 months from the 2007/2009 recession. This time is different.


KlangFool
You can make it up to us if you make the call on the duration of this one.

7 months so far for this recession and the average recession since 1945 has a duration of 10 months. What's it going to be KlangFool? Give us your prediction...
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
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Stinky
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by Stinky »

CyclingDuo wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:25 pm You can make it up to us if you make the call on the duration of this one.

7 months so far for this recession and the average recession since 1945 has a duration of 10 months. What's it going to be KlangFool? Give us your prediction...
I thought the recession was already over? :confused

Maybe I'm confusing that with the end of the bear market in equities.
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AlphaLess
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by AlphaLess »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:52 am Folks,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ted_States

I have been quoting that historically since 1836, there has been at least one US recession every 10 years. I was wrong. 2020 recession is 10 years 8 months from the 2007/2009 recession. This time is different.


KlangFool
LoL.

Not a big difference.
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plog
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by plog »

I thought the recession was already over
People speak of "recession" like its this technical word with a precise definition. It's not.

Google it and you'll be severly dissappointed. You'll find lots of weasel words (generally, typically, traditionally) and vague hints at how to spot one but nothing specific. Even better since "recession" is poorly defined you will find definitons to make all 3 of these statements are true:

The recession is over.
We are in the midst of the recession.
There was no recession.
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celia
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by celia »

EVERY TIME is different. They are all the same in that each one is different than the others.

They are all part of the collection of 'differences'!
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PicassoSparks
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by PicassoSparks »

No. It’s really a recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee
You can read their finding here. https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html

And their methods here. https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
The usual definition of a recession involves “a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.” However, in deciding whether to identify a recession, the committee weighs the depth of the contraction, its duration, and whether economic activity declined broadly across the economy (the diffusion of the downturn). The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions. Nonetheless, it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.
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KlangFool
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by KlangFool »

CyclingDuo wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:25 pm
KlangFool wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:52 am Folks,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ted_States

I have been quoting that historically since 1836, there has been at least one US recession every 10 years. I was wrong. 2020 recession is 10 years 8 months from the 2007/2009 recession. This time is different.


KlangFool
You can make it up to us if you make the call on the duration of this one.

7 months so far for this recession and the average recession since 1945 has a duration of 10 months. What's it going to be KlangFool? Give us your prediction...
I am prepared for 5 years. No, I don't know how long it will last.

KlangFool
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic interchange which challenged the definition of recession. The discussion was derailed. As a reminder, see: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by JoMoney »

Recessions are a regularly occurring thing. Probably good advice to be prepared knowing one will happen again, and that you might sleep better and smooth over some potential consequences by having a cash/bond allocation, if that's the point, good on ya' ... But if you think it's actionable that you can use it to time selling stocks high and buying low, you're more likely than not to have a disappointing result.
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by jeffyscott »

Stinky wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:43 pm I thought the recession was already over? :confused

Maybe I'm confusing that with the end of the bear market in equities.
Yes, you are, the stock market is not the economy. It may be a leading indicator, but I wonder if it is unusual to have the stock market actually reach a new record high while still in the recession?

This is an unusual recession in that it was not directly caused by anything happening in the economy.
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yules
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by yules »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:52 am Folks,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ted_States

I have been quoting that historically since 1836, there has been at least one US recession every 10 years. I was wrong. 2020 recession is 10 years 8 months from the 2007/2009 recession. This time is different.


KlangFool
So are you giving the sell signal for 2031?
Topic Author
KlangFool
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by KlangFool »

yules wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:23 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:52 am Folks,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ted_States

I have been quoting that historically since 1836, there has been at least one US recession every 10 years. I was wrong. 2020 recession is 10 years 8 months from the 2007/2009 recession. This time is different.


KlangFool
So are you giving the sell signal for 2031?
yules,


A) "Recessions are a regularly occurring thing."


B) Why do you need to sell in a recession if you are prepared? In fact, you should be prepared to buy in a recession.


KlangFool
rich126
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by rich126 »

Depending on how it affects you, a recession can be a huge event or a non-factor. I can't recall any of them affecting me job wise (not directly) which is fortunate for me. Housing wise it did but I rode it out.

I think the biggest danger is a prolonged (5, 10 yrs) of very low market returns. If you are young it may not matter a lot but someone in retirement or losses a job just prior to the recession may have some difficulties and stress since 4%, 3% etc. withdrawals may not work.

Many here always believes the market will recover but that isn't guaranteed and especially as you get older, it may not recover within your lifespan. Hopefully that doesn't happen but excluding it as a possibility is dangerous.
finite_difference
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by finite_difference »

plog wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:01 pm
I thought the recession was already over
People speak of "recession" like its this technical word with a precise definition. It's not.

Google it and you'll be severly dissappointed. You'll find lots of weasel words (generally, typically, traditionally) and vague hints at how to spot one but nothing specific. Even better since "recession" is poorly defined you will find definitons to make all 3 of these statements are true:

The recession is over.
We are in the midst of the recession.
There was no recession.
See the post a few below yours. In the US, the NBER is responsible for making the official call. According to them, we’re in a recession as of March. There’s a lot of lag involved, so we could be out of the recession, and they haven’t called it yet.
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by unclescrooge »

celia wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:25 am EVERY TIME is different. They are all the same in that each one is different than the others.

They are all part of the collection of 'differences'!
Are you claiming it's the same difference?
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post and reply. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

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000
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by 000 »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:52 am I have been quoting that historically since 1836, there has been at least one US recession every 10 years. I was wrong. 2020 recession is 10 years 8 months from the 2007/2009 recession. This time is different.
Some would say we have been in the same recession since 2007. Many people permanently lost jobs and homes and are not reflected in unemployment statistics due to "giving up" on finding work.
andypanda
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by andypanda »

"I thought the recession was already over?"

It probably is, but here is how I have always thought of it no matter what definition is used. Saying a recession is over is like saying it has finally stopped raining and the winds have died down. The sky may be blue, but that doesn't mean we aren't still up to our butts in floodwater and stinky mud.
3funder
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Re: I was wrong! Recession in 10 years 8 Months

Post by 3funder »

Your prediction panned out rather well. Take the win.
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