what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

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Croissant
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what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Croissant »

is there a way to find that info quickly? very simply put i'm looking to see __% of companies in the SP500 had a higher return at year end than the aggregate index return of in the year 2018 for example. there have been some posts about studies of skewness in stock returns, wondering if theres an easy way to run that analysis myself.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

i'm not sure, but let me ask you:
how would this information be useful to you?

I'm thinking you'd want to know in January which companies will be the higher/highest performers by Dec of each year. But you can't know that.

And knowing in Dec which companies did the best (say in 2020) tells you absolutely nothing about what their performance will be (in 2021 for instance).

Also, why are 1 year returns important at all, when we're investing for the long term rather than trading year to year?

take Sears.

Not saying it was the best in 2006, but it certainly did better than the total market in 2006 (total market up 15% but Sears up 45%):

Image

source:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

but then what happened in 2007? total market up 5.5% but Sears LOST 40%!!

Image

source:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by JoMoney »

I know there are places that will give you the current year to date quotes of all the constituents, like
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

Croissant wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:30 pm is there a way to find that info quickly? very simply put i'm looking to see __% of companies in the SP500 had a higher return at year end than the aggregate index return of in the year 2018 for example. there have been some posts about studies of skewness in stock returns, wondering if theres an easy way to run that analysis myself.
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by MotoTrojan »

The vast majority of companies not only underperform the market, they underperform t-bills.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:49 pm The vast majority of companies not only underperform the market, they underperform t-bills.
+1
Key findings

“The results also help to explain why active strategies, which tend to be poorly diversified, most often underperform,” says Bessembinder, who found that the largest returns come from very few stocks overall — just 86 stocks have accounted for $16 trillion in wealth creation, half of the stock market total, over the past 90 years. All of the wealth creation can be attributed to the thousand top-performing stocks, while the remaining 96 percent of stocks collectively matched one-month T-bills.

source: https://wpcarey.asu.edu/department-fina ... sury-bills
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Dontridetheindexdown »

This reminds me of the outside consultant's apocryphal question, "How many people work here?"

The apocryphal answer, "About half of them."
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Croissant »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:44 pm I know there are places that will give you the current year to date quotes of all the constituents, like
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
that works, thanks!
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Croissant »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:51 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:49 pm The vast majority of companies not only underperform the market, they underperform t-bills.
+1
Key findings

“The results also help to explain why active strategies, which tend to be poorly diversified, most often underperform,” says Bessembinder, who found that the largest returns come from very few stocks overall — just 86 stocks have accounted for $16 trillion in wealth creation, half of the stock market total, over the past 90 years. All of the wealth creation can be attributed to the thousand top-performing stocks, while the remaining 96 percent of stocks collectively matched one-month T-bills.

source: https://wpcarey.asu.edu/department-fina ... sury-bills
I'm reading that exact paper by Hendrik Bessembinder. I was curious what the results would look like if I modified the time range of the analysis (shorter duration, different decades), instead of using the papers 90 years benchmark which is longer than a typical investment horizon.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Croissant wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:12 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:51 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:49 pm The vast majority of companies not only underperform the market, they underperform t-bills.
+1
Key findings

“The results also help to explain why active strategies, which tend to be poorly diversified, most often underperform,” says Bessembinder, who found that the largest returns come from very few stocks overall — just 86 stocks have accounted for $16 trillion in wealth creation, half of the stock market total, over the past 90 years. All of the wealth creation can be attributed to the thousand top-performing stocks, while the remaining 96 percent of stocks collectively matched one-month T-bills.

source: https://wpcarey.asu.edu/department-fina ... sury-bills
I'm reading that exact paper by Hendrik Bessembinder. I was curious what the results would look like if I modified the time range of the analysis (shorter duration, different decades), instead of using the papers 90 years benchmark which is longer than a typical investment horizon.
but the problem is even though our investing timeframe may be shorter than 90 years...
Individual common stocks tend to have rather short lives. The median time that a stock is listed on the CRSP database between 1926 and 2016 is seven-and-a-half years.

source: https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.ph ... 87&EXT=pdf
so you're gambling with your shorter timeframe with an even shorter lifespan for most stocks.

If you start investing in your 20s or 30s even and live into your 90s, you're still talking about holding stocks for 60-70 years (or more depending if you make it to 100 or greater). That's foolhardy to own stocks which likely will go out of business, be bought out, spun off, change from public to private (Dell anyone?), etc in your lifetime.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Pete12 »

Croissant wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:30 pm is there a way to find that info quickly? very simply put i'm looking to see __% of companies in the SP500 had a higher return at year end than the aggregate index return of in the year 2018 for example. there have been some posts about studies of skewness in stock returns, wondering if theres an easy way to run that analysis myself.
On average 50% of the stocks perform better than the index and the other 50% perform worse. Problem is there's no way to know ahead of time who will outperform :twisted:
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Kenkat »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:44 pm I know there are places that will give you the current year to date quotes of all the constituents, like
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
Interpreting that data and using a S&P 500 YTD return of +5.34%, 180 stocks did better while 320 trailed the total return. In a cap weighted index, this is possible if larger companies or sectors outperform smaller ones.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by scophreak »

Pete12 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:56 am
Croissant wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:30 pm is there a way to find that info quickly? very simply put i'm looking to see __% of companies in the SP500 had a higher return at year end than the aggregate index return of in the year 2018 for example. there have been some posts about studies of skewness in stock returns, wondering if theres an easy way to run that analysis myself.
On average 50% of the stocks perform better than the index and the other 50% perform worse. Problem is there's no way to know ahead of time who will outperform :twisted:
Not certain that this is actually true in this case. From a mathematical perspective, this would be true of the median but not necessarily the average. From my limited knowledge of individual stock performance, my understanding is that a majority of gains in S&P500 are concentrated in the largest (typically tech sector) companies. This would imply that on average, fewer than 50% of the S&P500 companies actually achieve the aggregate index return.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by JoMoney »

Kenkat wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:11 am
JoMoney wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:44 pm I know there are places that will give you the current year to date quotes of all the constituents, like
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
Interpreting that data and using a S&P 500 YTD return of +5.34%, 180 stocks did better while 320 trailed the total return. In a cap weighted index, this is possible if larger companies or sectors outperform smaller ones.
Yes.
Another thing OP could look at, is the relative difference between an S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs S&P 500 Market cap-weighted index.
When the equal-weighted outperforms the market cap-weighted, it's likely the case that more individual stocks outperformed. Most of the market cap-weighted index is in a smaller number of stocks that soak up a lot by weight. In periods where that happens, it's considered a stock pickers market, and active management has a better chance of beating the index at least on a returns basis (not necessarily 'risk adjusted' for being heavier weighting in more volatile stocks). As a group, the active stock pickers still don't beat in aggregate - but they had a better chance in those periods (backward looking).

Something indexing fans could probably be a little more humble about, is that indexings advantage over active management in aggregate is about costs/expenses (and maybe some behavioral issues), not so much about active management or stock picking itself being somehow worse than throwing darts at picking stocks.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by absolute zero »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:22 am so you're gambling with your shorter timeframe with an even shorter lifespan for most stocks.

If you start investing in your 20s or 30s even and live into your 90s, you're still talking about holding stocks for 60-70 years (or more depending if you make it to 100 or greater). That's foolhardy to own stocks which likely will go out of business, be bought out, spun off, change from public to private (Dell anyone?), etc in your lifetime.
Where did the OP say anything about gambling or stock picking? He stated that he's trying to understand the skewness of stock returns.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by whereskyle »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:43 pm i'm not sure, but let me ask you:
how would this information be useful to you?

I'm thinking you'd want to know in January which companies will be the higher/highest performers by Dec of each year. But you can't know that.

And knowing in Dec which companies did the best (say in 2020) tells you absolutely nothing about what their performance will be (in 2021 for instance).

Also, why are 1 year returns important at all, when we're investing for the long term rather than trading year to year?

take Sears.

Not saying it was the best in 2006, but it certainly did better than the total market in 2006 (total market up 15% but Sears up 45%):

Image

source:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

but then what happened in 2007? total market up 5.5% but Sears LOST 40%!!

Image

source:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
I'd want to know the answer if I were deciding whether buying the index is the best approach.

I already know the answer: a pathetically small percentage. For that reason, I buy the Index.

Still would like to know. Always nice to have another factoid that helps me stay the course!
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

absolute zero wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:48 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:22 am so you're gambling with your shorter timeframe with an even shorter lifespan for most stocks.

If you start investing in your 20s or 30s even and live into your 90s, you're still talking about holding stocks for 60-70 years (or more depending if you make it to 100 or greater). That's foolhardy to own stocks which likely will go out of business, be bought out, spun off, change from public to private (Dell anyone?), etc in your lifetime.
Where did the OP say anything about gambling or stock picking? He stated that he's trying to understand the skewness of stock returns.
I didn't mean the OP was gambling per se, I just meant in general using a shorter time period is just another way of torturing the data until you get the results you want. The OP wants to look at a shorter time period, but what does 1 or even 10 years tell you if you're investing for decades? That was the response to:
I was curious what the results would look like if I modified the time range of the analysis (shorter duration, different decades), instead of using the papers 90 years benchmark which is longer than a typical investment horizon
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by JackoC »

scophreak wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:30 am
Pete12 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:56 am
Croissant wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:30 pm is there a way to find that info quickly? very simply put i'm looking to see __% of companies in the SP500 had a higher return at year end than the aggregate index return of in the year 2018 for example. there have been some posts about studies of skewness in stock returns, wondering if theres an easy way to run that analysis myself.
On average 50% of the stocks perform better than the index and the other 50% perform worse. Problem is there's no way to know ahead of time who will outperform :twisted:
Not certain that this is actually true in this case. From a mathematical perspective, this would be true of the median but not necessarily the average. From my limited knowledge of individual stock performance, my understanding is that a majority of gains in S&P500 are concentrated in the largest (typically tech sector) companies. This would imply that on average, fewer than 50% of the S&P500 companies actually achieve the aggregate index return.
Yeah that's not necessarily true. This link has price return of each S&P stock ytd 2020, SPX was up 3.91% in price as of same date per related link in same series, in between the 193rd and 194th best performing stocks. Not *that* far from a neat relationship, nor is the median stock's return (250th and 251st stocks returned -3.73% and -3.90%) v the index. But not super close to a neat relationship either, which you would not expect just given that the market caps of the component stocks vary so widely (Apple recently had bigger market cap than the bottom 183 companies combined) and common knowledge that individual stock returns are all over the place semi-randomly.
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Beachey »

This discussion reminds me of the Dogs of the Dow investing strategy, never have seen it applied to the S&P 500 and not sure it would even work. But you wouldn't want to pick last year's winners but those stocks that have under-performed to the average thinking they will revert to the average.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Schlabba »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:22 am
Croissant wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:12 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:51 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:49 pm The vast majority of companies not only underperform the market, they underperform t-bills.
+1
Key findings

“The results also help to explain why active strategies, which tend to be poorly diversified, most often underperform,” says Bessembinder, who found that the largest returns come from very few stocks overall — just 86 stocks have accounted for $16 trillion in wealth creation, half of the stock market total, over the past 90 years. All of the wealth creation can be attributed to the thousand top-performing stocks, while the remaining 96 percent of stocks collectively matched one-month T-bills.

source: https://wpcarey.asu.edu/department-fina ... sury-bills
I'm reading that exact paper by Hendrik Bessembinder. I was curious what the results would look like if I modified the time range of the analysis (shorter duration, different decades), instead of using the papers 90 years benchmark which is longer than a typical investment horizon.
but the problem is even though our investing timeframe may be shorter than 90 years...
Individual common stocks tend to have rather short lives. The median time that a stock is listed on the CRSP database between 1926 and 2016 is seven-and-a-half years.

source: https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.ph ... 87&EXT=pdf
so you're gambling with your shorter timeframe with an even shorter lifespan for most stocks.

If you start investing in your 20s or 30s even and live into your 90s, you're still talking about holding stocks for 60-70 years (or more depending if you make it to 100 or greater). That's foolhardy to own stocks which likely will go out of business, be bought out, spun off, change from public to private (Dell anyone?), etc in your lifetime.
The Bessembinder paper assumes that all dividends always are reinvested in the stocks that paid the dividends, and that no dividends ever are kept or spent otherwise by the shareholders. The necessary result of this assumption is that any company that ever goes bankrupt is considered to be a total failure, regardless of how much it distributed in dividends during its lifetime, because all of those dividends were assumed to have been reinvested in the failed stock. This is not a realistic assumption.

Bessembinder implicitly recognizes this in page 27 of his paper:

"Consider, as a case in point, General Motors Corporation (GM), which delisted in June
2009 following a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. The delisting share price for its main class of
common stock was $0.61, compared to $93 less than a decade earlier. Had the delisting share
price been zero instead of sixty one cents, GM’s lifetime buy-and-hold return would have been
-100%. However, GM paid more than $64 billion in dividends to its shareholders in the decades
prior to its bankruptcy and also repurchased shares on multiple occasions, and these funds were
collectively available to investors for other purposes even after GM’s bankruptcy filing."

The paper also points out that rates of underperformance are highest for small capitalization stocks and for stocks that have entered the database in recent decades. Small-cap stocks and recent IPOs can easily be avoided until they have an acceptable track record and financials that are consistent with their pricing.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

I've heard this argument before, I believe from Jonathan Clements, but it makes a couple of assumptions:
1. you hold long enough AND
2. the company doesn't go out of business over that time period
3. so that you at least get back your investment (through dividends received) in the event the company goes bust.

Look at GM. How long would you have had to hold it to get your money back? Depends upon what price you paid and how long you held and what dividends paid.

Just looking since GM emerged (according to morningstar 11/18/2010) the share price was $34.81 at that time. (https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... tock+price)

GM dividends have been paid between .30 and .38 per share quarterly (https://www.streetinsider.com/dividend_history.php?q=GM)

So if you bought one share at $34.81 and dividends pay lets say .38 per share quarterly, how long would it take to JUST GET YOUR MONEY BACK if they go bankrupt again? 22.9 years.

better hope GM lasts that long before declaring bankruptcy again.

but that's just to break even.

investing is supposed to do better than that.

If you invested in total stock market you got dividends and cap appreciation. what happened to GM since 11/18/2020? See for yourself:

Image
source:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Schlabba »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:47 am I've heard this argument before, I believe from Jonathan Clements, but it makes a couple of assumptions:
1. you hold long enough AND
2. the company doesn't go out of business over that time period
3. so that you at least get back your investment (through dividends received) in the event the company goes bust.

Look at GM. How long would you have had to hold it to get your money back? Depends upon what price you paid and how long you held and what dividends paid.

Just looking since GM emerged (according to morningstar 11/18/2010) the share price was $34.81 at that time. (https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... tock+price)

GM dividends have been paid between .30 and .38 per share quarterly (https://www.streetinsider.com/dividend_history.php?q=GM)

So if you bought one share at $34.81 and dividends pay lets say .38 per share quarterly, how long would it take to JUST GET YOUR MONEY BACK if they go bankrupt again? 22.9 years.

better hope GM lasts that long before declaring bankruptcy again.

but that's just to break even.

investing is supposed to do better than that.

If you invested in total stock market you got dividends and cap appreciation. what happened to GM since 11/18/2020? See for yourself:

Image
source:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
GM was just a single example to prove the point.

Reinvesting all earned money into the same stock, watching the stock go to a 100% loss, and then concluding 96% of stocks don't outperform the index is just wrong.

If you increase the study length to 500 years I am sure the results will be that 100% of stocks underperform T-bills. How many 500 year old companies are still around today?
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Walkure »

Schlabba wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:00 pm GM was just a single example to prove the point.

Reinvesting all earned money into the same stock, watching the stock go to a 100% loss, and then concluding 96% of stocks don't outperform the index is just wrong.

If you increase the study length to 500 years I am sure the results will be that 100% of stocks underperform T-bills. How many 500 year old companies are still around today?
I think there's a hotel in Japan, but that's privately held. Although, to be fair, the US has only been around for less than half (244 years), so there's still a couple of centuries for T-bills to default...
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by livesoft »

Pete12 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:56 am On average 50% of the stocks perform better than the index and the other 50% perform worse. Problem is there's no way to know ahead of time who will outperform :twisted:
Are you sure? Your statement doesn't make sense, does it? You have heard something like this before: If you put Bill Gates and Warren Buffett in the same room as all the Bogleheads who attended the last Bogleheads Conference, what percentage of the people in the room will have higher net worth than the average net worth of all the people in the room? I don't think it will be 50%.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by JackoC »

Schlabba wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:00 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:47 am I've heard this argument before, I believe from Jonathan Clements, but it makes a couple of assumptions:
1. you hold long enough AND
2. the company doesn't go out of business over that time period
3. so that you at least get back your investment (through dividends received) in the event the company goes bust.
GM was just a single example to prove the point.

Reinvesting all earned money into the same stock, watching the stock go to a 100% loss, and then concluding 96% of stocks don't outperform the index is just wrong.

If you increase the study length to 500 years I am sure the results will be that 100% of stocks underperform T-bills. How many 500 year old companies are still around today?
Yes is it a good point. But as you might have previously referred to, some of it is about carefully thinking about what the index actually is. Especially in case of a more exclusive one like the S&P 500 (as opposed to total market), holding the index over a very long period is importantly different than just holding the original 500 companies till (almost inevitably*) they go bust. Many of those companies would be kicked out of the index before they went bust, replaced by new companies, and the rebalancing on admission of new co's might force the index holder to sell some shares in older co's even if they remain in the index.

Then as you say it's less and less realistic to assume anyone reinvests all dividends (or doesn't liquidate shares) in a period beyond a few decades. The idea is usually to provide consumption later in a single lifetime, or if not eventually some future generation will want to or need to live off the returns. Expected return of US stocks now is perhaps 3% real (1/CAPE). Some balk at that as too low, but a continuously reinvested 3% real return at Kongo Gumi the Japanese temple builder would have increased the company's value 2 quintillion times from 578 till it was bought by publicly traded Takamatsu in 2006. Obviously, very long term reinvested returns are seriously affected by both consumption of some return by owners, and periodic large scale destruction of the capital stock, which is fairly likely over multi-century periods though might reasonably be subordinated as a consideration in a few decade plan.

*AFAIK there are no entities which were joint stock companies 500 yrs ago and still exist. There's a significant absolute number of 500+ yr old companies, but the great majority are and always were privately owned. The few that are publicly traded (or subsidiaries of publicly traded companies) adopted that form of ownership only much more recently, like a few Italian banks with roots in the 15th century which only became conventional publicly traded entities or their subs in the 1990's, and Kongo Gumi as mentioned a private company from 578-2006. 500 yrs from now it's more plausible there will be 500 yr old joint stock companies since there are 1,000's now, though probably a small % of will survive from now and possibly none.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Sandi_k »

If I were looking for a short list on which to focus, I'd look at the top holdings of Wellesley and Wellington.
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by Croissant »

all, very interesting points.

Assuming
A: YTD trends are to persist for 2020
B: stock picking procedure restarts every year

if one throws their money at a single stock within the SP500 instead of buying the index, they'd have 40% odds of beating the SP500 index (just based on individual stock performance on slickcharts). my napkin math says the actual odds are that stock picking can out perform 30-50% of the time because:
>the outperformance of individual stocks seem to be sector based. for example in 2020 tech beat index but retail, banking, oils performed poorly. so it's not truly random, which means if you can pick a winning sector you'd have higher than 40% odds of outperforming, but if you CANT pick a winning sector and just throw the dart at the 500 stocks, you will have less than 40% chance of outperformance
>with individual stock you add risk of running into company fraud (VW diesel, Wells Fargo fake account, Boeing planes, etc). odds of this is not significant, but probably in the low single digits.

what is the % of individual stocks outperforming the SP500 in other years? would like to see if the 30-40% odds changes outside of 2020.

p.s. Bessembinder ran monte carlo sim. to pick 1 stock and hold it for 90 yrs and shows most of the time said single pick doesn't outperform treasury, that isn't surprising. imagine if you bought AMZN at IPO in 1997, are you willing to bet AMZN will still exist in 2087? Bessembinder's finding more so demonstrates the short average lifespan of the companies in SP500 (which is getting shorter btw) than anything else. single stock performance persisting over 90 years is too much to ask for imo. check out the age of SP500 companies; only a handful are older than 90.

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reln
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Re: what % of stocks in SP500 returns better than index?

Post by reln »

Pete12 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:56 am
Croissant wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:30 pm is there a way to find that info quickly? very simply put i'm looking to see __% of companies in the SP500 had a higher return at year end than the aggregate index return of in the year 2018 for example. there have been some posts about studies of skewness in stock returns, wondering if theres an easy way to run that analysis myself.
On average 50% of the stocks perform better than the index and the other 50% perform worse. Problem is there's no way to know ahead of time who will outperform :twisted:
Source?
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