Buying covid hit stocks

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speer
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Buying covid hit stocks

Post by speer »

Making some purchases in growth stocks that took a major covid hit.

My picks:

carnival corp
NYSE: CCL

amusment parks
NYSE: FUN, SIX

REIT
NYSE: PK
NYSE: WELL
NYSE: SPG

carnival corp and amusment parks will come back, may not be for a few years, but I dont believe these industries will go backrupt. Same for retail/malls (NYSE: SPG) and travel hotels (NYSE: PK). The debate can be had about retail space (NYSE: SPG) as dying because of online sales, but I believe the covid impact is whats providing buying opprotunities right now as it will return to normal in the coming years.

NYSE: WELL is seniors housing REIT, not sure why this industry would be as impacted by covid, seniors still need care facilities and would appear stable for future growth with an aging population.

Other picks are stocks I picked for fundaments, not because of covid impact. They are controversial and I believe fetch a better price. They may not grow or remain flatlined, but they cash flow and will be around for ever and provide dividends regardless. They are SIN stocks including: tobacco, alcohol and private prisons. GEO I believe has a major chance to increase in price if Trump wins in nov (which I believe is the case) as dems are seen as wanting to abolish private prisons.

tobacco:
OTCMKTS: BTAFF
NYSE: MO
NYSE: PM

alcohol stocks
NYSE: BUD
NYSE: TAP
NYSE: DEO

private prisons
NYSE: GEO

Thoughts? Ive also considered airlines, but I really dont know too much about them.
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willthrill81
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by willthrill81 »

You aren't going to get much stock-specific advice since this forum widely advocates the buying of index funds when possible.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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David Jay
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by David Jay »

What specialized knowledge do you have about these stocks that the financial industry does not have and has not priced into the current value of these stocks?

If you are buying, there is an someone on the other side of the trade. That someone is likely (based on trading volume) an industry professional who believes that the current price warrants selling, rather than buying.

My bet is on the professional.
Last edited by David Jay on Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
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David Jay
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by David Jay »

I hope that didn't come across as condescending. I was exactly where you are about 6-7 years ago. I thought I could "outperform" the market.

It takes a measure of humility to take what the market gives and call it good.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
mega317
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by mega317 »

I don't really follow individual stocks or sectors but if one believes one can just reason out winning stock picks in the way you have, then it seems airlines (if they are still way down right now, I don't even know) are the surest to come back right? Many people who can live without cruises can't or don't want to live without flying.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212
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speer
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by speer »

David Jay wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:24 pm I hope that didn't come across as condescending. I was exactly where you are about 6-7 years ago. I thought I could "outperform" the market.

It takes a measure of humility to take what the market gives and call it good.
I could be 100% wrong. SP500 has recovered already, so I am looking depressed stocks that have future growth from the current covid effect.

In the future, when ever it is, these industries will return to normal from their current stigma as covid19 blows over. Or its already priced in, I really dont know. All I know its good to be greedy when others are fearful.

tangent:

Major stocks especially the SP500 IMO is overvalued and has a lot of "dumb" money put in to it, including QE. Ive always had the impression it would eventually follow a Nikkei 225 trajectory.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by MotoTrojan »

speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:44 pm
David Jay wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:24 pm I hope that didn't come across as condescending. I was exactly where you are about 6-7 years ago. I thought I could "outperform" the market.

It takes a measure of humility to take what the market gives and call it good.
I could be 100% wrong. SP500 has recovered already, so I am looking depressed stocks that have future growth from the current covid effect.

In the future, when ever it is, these industries will return to normal from their current stigma as covid19 blows over. Or its already priced in, I really dont know. All I know its good to be greedy when others are fearful.

tangent:

Major stocks especially the SP500 IMO is overvalued and has a lot of "dumb" money put in to it, including QE. Ive always had the impression it would eventually follow a Nikkei 225 trajectory.
Just buy QVAL if you want cheap but quality stocks. For what it’s worth, it holds MO...
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peetsperk
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by peetsperk »

See #5 and #6.

Bogleheads Investment Philosophy
1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Diversify
5 Never try to time the market
6 Use index funds when possible
7 Keep costs low
8 Minimize taxes
9 Invest with simplicity
10 Stay the course
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dogagility
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by dogagility »

speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:44 pm I could be 100% wrong. SP500 has recovered already, so I am looking depressed stocks that have future growth from the current covid effect.

In the future, when ever it is, these industries will return to normal from their current stigma as covid19 blows over. Or its already priced in, I really dont know. All I know its good to be greedy when others are fearful.

tangent:

Major stocks especially the SP500 IMO is overvalued and has a lot of "dumb" money put in to it, including QE. Ive always had the impression it would eventually follow a Nikkei 225 trajectory.
A lot of speculation in these statements... "depressed stocks that have future growth", "return to normal", "covid effect", "overvalued", "dumb money", "impression...".

Best of luck to you.
All children spill milk. Learn to smile and wipe it up. -- A Farmer's Wife
justglassin
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by justglassin »

Something like an S&P500 or Total Market, ex-Tech/Comms Services, if it existed, might be the most Bogleheaded way to go about this. But I think it's crazy to write off AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG.
CardioMD
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by CardioMD »

dogagility wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:58 pm
speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:44 pm I could be 100% wrong. SP500 has recovered already, so I am looking depressed stocks that have future growth from the current covid effect.

In the future, when ever it is, these industries will return to normal from their current stigma as covid19 blows over. Or its already priced in, I really dont know. All I know its good to be greedy when others are fearful.

tangent:

Major stocks especially the SP500 IMO is overvalued and has a lot of "dumb" money put in to it, including QE. Ive always had the impression it would eventually follow a Nikkei 225 trajectory.
A lot of speculation in these statements... "depressed stocks that have future growth", "return to normal", "covid effect", "overvalued", "dumb money", "impression...".

Best of luck to you.
My thoughts as well. Best of luck to the OP. The pros have already priced those things in as well and the future doesn’t appear bright.
“The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing.” -Jack Bogle
learntoinvest123
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by learntoinvest123 »

speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:44 pm I could be 100% wrong. SP500 has recovered already, so I am looking depressed stocks that have future growth from the current covid effect.

In the future, when ever it is, these industries will return to normal from their current stigma as covid19 blows over. Or its already priced in, I really dont know. All I know its good to be greedy when others are fearful.

tangent:

Major stocks especially the SP500 IMO is overvalued and has a lot of "dumb" money put in to it, including QE. Ive always had the impression it would eventually follow a Nikkei 225 trajectory.
Speculating and investing are two different things. This forum is about investing which needs sound knowledge of the instrument you are investing in.
It is hard for professionals to value individual stocks what chance do we stand? You may win a few in the short term, but will lose more than win long term.
hnd
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by hnd »

covid depressed stocks that I bought that haven't really gone back up as much as I assumed (all are about +10-15%) they would and could be a good buying opportunity :

BA - Boeing
XOM - Exxon Mobile
SRE - Sempra Energy
LUV - Southwest airlines

every other stock pick i purchased in early april is over the +25% threshold.
Robot Monster
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by Robot Monster »

Diageo (DEO) is one of the few international stocks that Vanguard Wellington Fund had in its portfolio (as of 6/30).
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... o-holdings
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tibbitts
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by tibbitts »

speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:44 pm I could be 100% wrong. SP500 has recovered already, so I am looking depressed stocks that have future growth from the current covid effect.

In the future, when ever it is, these industries will return to normal from their current stigma as covid19 blows over. Or its already priced in, I really dont know. All I know its good to be greedy when others are fearful.
Hmm... airlines? I thought Mr. "greedy when others are fearful" himself dumped airline stocks during the pandemic lows (well, lows so far...) And CCL is up about 100% in the past few months... so you're buying now? CCL might survive this pandemic, but what happens to your pandemic recovery theory if similar pandemics become frequently recurring events? I remember after the 2000 bear, people saying "well, now we've had our generational serious bear market." Uh huh... like the stock market understood a human generation. Now people are saying that about this pandemic.
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pennsylvania211
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by pennsylvania211 »

David Jay wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:24 pm I hope that didn't come across as condescending. I was exactly where you are about 6-7 years ago. I thought I could "outperform" the market.

It takes a measure of humility to take what the market gives and call it good.
Market charges an expensive tuition to teach lessons
"In the long run, investing is not about markets at all. Investing is about enjoying the returns earned by businesses." - Jack Bogle
thoughtware
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by thoughtware »

justglassin wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:01 pm I think it's crazy to write off AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG.
Yes, agree completely. These are a different breed of company from anything that existed a generation ago. The customer/vendor network maintained by their respective technology platforms provides not only a near perfect defense from competitors, but also fertile ground for introducing NEW products and services that will EMERGE organically out of their technical dominance. As technology improves exponentially, new ideas that can not even be fathomed right now will be leveraged to continually improve customer engagement and earnings from these companies. This is a NEW means of company growth, earnings and sustainability that has no historical record and why I think it is wise to hold these company's for the long term in addition to the market etfs.
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by MotoTrojan »

justglassin wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:01 pm Something like an S&P500 or Total Market, ex-Tech/Comms Services, if it existed, might be the most Bogleheaded way to go about this. But I think it's crazy to write off AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG.
SPXT exists, but I’d just use a value fund.

I don’t own any of those 4 you mentioned and sleep fine at night.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by MotoTrojan »

thoughtware wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:41 pm
justglassin wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:01 pm I think it's crazy to write off AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG.
Yes, agree completely. These are a different breed of company from anything that existed a generation ago. The customer/vendor network maintained by their respective technology platforms provides not only a near perfect defense from competitors, but also fertile ground for introducing NEW products and services that will EMERGE organically out of their technical dominance. As technology improves exponentially, new ideas that can not even be fathomed right now will be leveraged to continually improve customer engagement and earnings from these companies. This is a NEW means of company growth, earnings and sustainability that has no historical record and why I think it is wise to hold these company's for the long term in addition to the market etfs.
Wonderful companies, yes, but are they wonderfully priced? Price matters.

People like to tout recent returns but ignore that several of these could be had for EV/EBIT of <10 in the last decade (they were value stocks). Currently 3-4x times that.
rascott
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by rascott »

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:43 pm
thoughtware wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:41 pm
justglassin wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:01 pm I think it's crazy to write off AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG.
Yes, agree completely. These are a different breed of company from anything that existed a generation ago. The customer/vendor network maintained by their respective technology platforms provides not only a near perfect defense from competitors, but also fertile ground for introducing NEW products and services that will EMERGE organically out of their technical dominance. As technology improves exponentially, new ideas that can not even be fathomed right now will be leveraged to continually improve customer engagement and earnings from these companies. This is a NEW means of company growth, earnings and sustainability that has no historical record and why I think it is wise to hold these company's for the long term in addition to the market etfs.
Wonderful companies, yes, but are they wonderfully priced? Price matters.

People like to tout recent returns but ignore that several of these could be had for EV/EBIT of <10 in the last decade (they were value stocks). Currently 3-4x times that.
Amazon has had a sky high multiple on it for a couple decades.
anonsdca
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by anonsdca »

speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:07 pm Making some purchases in growth stocks that took a major covid hit.

My picks:

carnival corp
NYSE: CCL

amusment parks
NYSE: FUN, SIX

REIT
NYSE: PK
NYSE: WELL
NYSE: SPG

carnival corp and amusment parks will come back, may not be for a few years, but I dont believe these industries will go backrupt. Same for retail/malls (NYSE: SPG) and travel hotels (NYSE: PK). The debate can be had about retail space (NYSE: SPG) as dying because of online sales, but I believe the covid impact is whats providing buying opprotunities right now as it will return to normal in the coming years.

NYSE: WELL is seniors housing REIT, not sure why this industry would be as impacted by covid, seniors still need care facilities and would appear stable for future growth with an aging population.

Other picks are stocks I picked for fundaments, not because of covid impact. They are controversial and I believe fetch a better price. They may not grow or remain flatlined, but they cash flow and will be around for ever and provide dividends regardless. They are SIN stocks including: tobacco, alcohol and private prisons. GEO I believe has a major chance to increase in price if Trump wins in nov (which I believe is the case) as dems are seen as wanting to abolish private prisons.

tobacco:
OTCMKTS: BTAFF
NYSE: MO
NYSE: PM

alcohol stocks
NYSE: BUD
NYSE: TAP
NYSE: DEO

private prisons
NYSE: GEO

Thoughts? Ive also considered airlines, but I really dont know too much about them.

As far as CCL, FUN, SIX, PK & SPG - I wouldn't want to own those individually or in an index. Yes, they are getting smashed due to COVID, but I dont think they will ever come back. SPG & SIX have been in decline several years prior to COVID. Almost all of these have cut or suspended their dividends. No thanks.

I love Tobacco and Alcohol stocks. Own MO, PM & TAP. Would not touch GEO.

As someone else said, this is not the forum for individual stocks. While I do not feel this way, it is considered "gambling" here. Do a Google search and you can find other forums that entertain these kinds of discussions.
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by DesertDiva »

peetsperk wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:53 pm See #5 and #6.

Bogleheads Investment Philosophy
1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Diversify
5 Never try to time the market
6 Use index funds when possible
7 Keep costs low
8 Minimize taxes
9 Invest with simplicity
10 Stay the course
+100,000,000,000^10
start at the beginning: #1.
Have a plan and work it.
Take the emotion out of investing.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Buying anything hit by COVID fears at this time seems very late to me.

Disclaimer: I have a proven track record of being unable to pick winners consistently.
thoughtware
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by thoughtware »

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:43 pm Wonderful companies, yes, but are they wonderfully priced? Price matters.

People like to tout recent returns but ignore that several of these could be had for EV/EBIT of <10 in the last decade (they were value stocks). Currently 3-4x times that.
I understand your point. Yet, consider that it may no longer be viable to apply evaluation metrics of the past to these types of companies. Technology dominant companies like these, each with real-time, 24-hour interactive, one to one consumer relationships have never existed before. And, I might argue that we still do not know what they will ultimately evolve into.
tesuzuki2002
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:07 pm Making some purchases in growth stocks that took a major covid hit.

.......


Thoughts? Ive also considered airlines, but I really dont know too much about them.
Don't invest in what you don't know.....

I have become a big index fan.... But there are good opportunities if you know where value lives.

FUN is a good play that is cyclical... I've made good money on this over the last 15 years... buying and selling my whole position 6 times... I'm in it for a 7th time and I would have sold at the recent $37/38 level, but I missed it. I got in back in March in the $15 range in a couple of purchases.. I don't like short term gains so it needs to be a good win... (4x in under a year and I'll sell, case in point. I just sold all my Peleton last week... I might regret this tomorrow, but I picked it up below $20 and I am good with that win)

As of now, I think the smart money already made moves specific to COVID... Tech should be well off in the next few years despite and COVID impact. Real estate is likely to have a boom once and fall out in the housing market settles.

As I stated before I have converted to indexes for the most part... HOWEVER, I took available cash positions I had back in March as well as sold off all of my bonds back then and made a lot of gambles on individual stocks during the March meltdown... It was crazy, risky, and fun... but Last week Tuesday I started selling off all those individual stocks... I have a hard time believing the market thinks we should be at all time highs... I'm looking to take that cash in the coming weeks and invest it back into the indexes...

My company started heavily using Zoom back in September last year... and I said to myself wow I really like their product. It has come a long way... I made an investment then because I saw an opportunity and I was familiar and had started using it regularly... Much to my surprise COVID really shot that one up... I'm still holding that as I really like the product and still see much growth... I just wish I would have bought more of that back in 2019.


But over all I have now taken up a 0% bond asset allocation. This was a bigger decision I made with a change to my IPS.
Last edited by tesuzuki2002 on Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tesuzuki2002
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

hnd wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:22 pm covid depressed stocks that I bought that haven't really gone back up as much as I assumed (all are about +10-15%) they would and could be a good buying opportunity :

BA - Boeing
XOM - Exxon Mobile
SRE - Sempra Energy
LUV - Southwest airlines

every other stock pick i purchased in early april is over the +25% threshold.

I have owned BA outright for decades.... It has been crushed recently with company issues: 737MAX, Management oversight, COVID slowing builds and orders, 787 Manufacturing defects. Oh what a list...

I don't like it.... but at the same time this has created another buying opportunity for me. I couldn't believe the sub $100 during the pandemic panic. I'm watching on that one... I would currently buy below $125 at the moment... but this new 787 issue... could change my value lower... more new still coming out on that.
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by MotoTrojan »

rascott wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:50 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:43 pm
thoughtware wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:41 pm
justglassin wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:01 pm I think it's crazy to write off AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, & GOOG.
Yes, agree completely. These are a different breed of company from anything that existed a generation ago. The customer/vendor network maintained by their respective technology platforms provides not only a near perfect defense from competitors, but also fertile ground for introducing NEW products and services that will EMERGE organically out of their technical dominance. As technology improves exponentially, new ideas that can not even be fathomed right now will be leveraged to continually improve customer engagement and earnings from these companies. This is a NEW means of company growth, earnings and sustainability that has no historical record and why I think it is wise to hold these company's for the long term in addition to the market etfs.
Wonderful companies, yes, but are they wonderfully priced? Price matters.

People like to tout recent returns but ignore that several of these could be had for EV/EBIT of <10 in the last decade (they were value stocks). Currently 3-4x times that.
Amazon has had a sky high multiple on it for a couple decades.
True indeed (I didn’t say all).
MotoTrojan
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by MotoTrojan »

thoughtware wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:14 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:43 pm Wonderful companies, yes, but are they wonderfully priced? Price matters.

People like to tout recent returns but ignore that several of these could be had for EV/EBIT of <10 in the last decade (they were value stocks). Currently 3-4x times that.
I understand your point. Yet, consider that it may no longer be viable to apply evaluation metrics of the past to these types of companies. Technology dominant companies like these, each with real-time, 24-hour interactive, one to one consumer relationships have never existed before. And, I might argue that we still do not know what they will ultimately evolve into.
I just watched The Social Dilemma (on Netflix) and I’m frankly terrified of what they’ve already evolved into.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by MotoTrojan »

tesuzuki2002 wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:32 pm

My company started heavily using Zoom back in September last year... and I said to myself wow I really like their product. It has come a long way... I made an investment then because I saw an opportunity and I was familiar and had started using it regularly... Much to my surprise COVID really shot that one up... I'm still holding that as I really like the product and still see much growth... I just wish I would have bought more of that back in 2019.
Nice grab. Zoom (in the covid world) is an interesting one as I feel while it grew incredibly fast, it likely approached its TAM as everyone was forced to get onboard. They now need other features to continue hyper growth, and I feel like more integrated systems (like Microsoft/Teams) are more positioned to take that on. Zoom as it lives now can’t continue this growth perpetually. Valuation is very rich today.
tesuzuki2002
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:09 pm
tesuzuki2002 wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:32 pm

My company started heavily using Zoom back in September last year... and I said to myself wow I really like their product. It has come a long way... I made an investment then because I saw an opportunity and I was familiar and had started using it regularly... Much to my surprise COVID really shot that one up... I'm still holding that as I really like the product and still see much growth... I just wish I would have bought more of that back in 2019.
Nice grab. Zoom (in the covid world) is an interesting one as I feel while it grew incredibly fast, it likely approached its TAM as everyone was forced to get onboard. They now need other features to continue hyper growth, and I feel like more integrated systems (like Microsoft/Teams) are more positioned to take that on. Zoom as it lives now can’t continue this growth perpetually. Valuation is very rich today.
I do agree on them reaching their TAM. As for my investment well this is on of those cases where I simply got lucky. I am curious to see what they might do with adding more Hardware to their product line. That was what intrigued me in the beginning was the conference room hardware (Camera, interactive scheduler, boards etc. ) However, we're no longer using conference rooms now either... We converted to 365 recently and I have been using teams a bit more as well. I find the products to be pretty similar in terms of capability...
MathIsMyWayr
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Re: Buying covid hit stocks

Post by MathIsMyWayr »

speer wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:44 pm
David Jay wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:24 pm I hope that didn't come across as condescending. I was exactly where you are about 6-7 years ago. I thought I could "outperform" the market.

It takes a measure of humility to take what the market gives and call it good.
I could be 100% wrong. SP500 has recovered already, so I am looking depressed stocks that have future growth from the current covid effect.

In the future, when ever it is, these industries will return to normal from their current stigma as covid19 blows over. Or its already priced in, I really dont know. All I know its good to be greedy when others are fearful.

tangent:

Major stocks especially the SP500 IMO is overvalued and has a lot of "dumb" money put in to it, including QE. Ive always had the impression it would eventually follow a Nikkei 225 trajectory.
A wise man understands nature far better than Nobel price winning physicists, I bet.
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