Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

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justsomeguy2018
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Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

As I type this the SP500 takes a 3.5% dip today (more to come?) but thought it was interesting to revisit past actions.

What I did right
1. Stayed the course. Stuck with asset allocation.
2. Continued buying index shares in taxable account as market continued to drop.
3. Got in backdoor Roths (2x)
4. Converted a trad IRA when market was down
5. Kept 401k contributions at max level
6. Rebalanced some of my accounts at the 5% threshold (later edit)

What I did wrong
1. Halted buying in taxable on the upswing bull rally, expecting an eventual reversal
2. Hesitated buying larger amounts in taxable as new bottoms kept being hit (though some of this due to going into cash preservation mode given uncertainty of employment situation during pandemic)
3. DCA'd inside the backdoor Roths
4. Bought several cheap Put options expecting a downturn for a loss of around $65 total (later edit)

TBD
1. Fidgeted around with bond portion of portfolio; bought more treasury bond funds and less total bond market fund due to corporate exposure. Also shifted some money to Money Market fund for greater stability.
Last edited by justsomeguy2018 on Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
matti
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by matti »

Thanks for posting.

During the pandemic I also pretty much stayed the course. I did increase my emergency fund since the pandemic started, however. I also came into a bit more money in the past month, so I increased the amount I contribute to my 403(b) (I hope to be able to max it out this year).
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willthrill81
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by willthrill81 »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:17 pm As I type this the SP500 takes a 3.5% dip today (more to come?) but thought it was interesting to revisit past actions.

What I did right
1. Stayed the course. Stuck with asset allocation.
2. Continued buying index shares in taxable account as market continued to drop.
3. Got in backdoor Roths (2x)
4. Converted a trad IRA when market was down
5. Kept 401k contributions at max level

What I did wrong
1. Halted buying in taxable on the upswing bull rally, expecting an eventual reversal
2. Hesitated buying larger amounts in taxable as new bottoms kept being hit (though some of this due to going into cash preservation mode given uncertainty of employment situation during pandemic)
3. DCA'd inside the backdoor Roths

TBD
1. Fidgeted around with bond portion of portfolio; bought more treasury bond funds and less total bond market fund due to corporate exposure. Also shifted some money to Money Market fund for greater stability.
Overall, you did a good job. The big thing to avoid is panic selling. Shifting around new contributions is not very 'offensive'.

It seems that you've seen the wisdom of putting your fixed income in safety and taking your risk with stocks instead of corporate bonds. Good for you.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
000
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by 000 »

What I did wrong
1. I didn't buy stock call options.
Rainmaker41
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Rainmaker41 »

Good: Contributions stayed on autopilot. Did not sell anything, so first major crash results in a “pass” grade.

Bad: Did not rebalance 403(b)s from bond to stock on March 31, so take some points off for that. Due to continued contributions nudging the allocation toward the target, this resolved itself over time (note to self: LifeStrategy Growth funds not needing rebalancing in Roth IRAs were a good decision). Invested only some, but not all, excess cash on June 30.
Last edited by Rainmaker41 on Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:06 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Topic Author
justsomeguy2018
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

000 wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:39 pm What I did wrong
1. I didn't buy stock call options.
Lol. Right.

This reminded me to add something my did wrong column - I bought some cheap put options after the bull run was steaming ahead that expired worthless...
pasadena
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by pasadena »

I'll play.

What I did right
1. Rebalanced a few times between early March and mid-April
2. Tax loss harvested everything I could
3. Moved some stocks from taxable to Roth when doing 1 and 2
4. Kept investing bi-weekly in my 401(k)
5. Didn't lower my 401(k) contribution % - I had decided to front-load it this year and that's exactly what I did (maxed it out mid-May)
6. Started contributing to after-tax 401(k) on June 1st, as scheduled, and invested the money normally.

What I did wrong
1. Didn't buy those Tesla and Apple shares I really, really wanted to buy in March and April but didn't have the cash for without touching my normal investments. Hindsight is 20/20

Jury's out
1. Sold all of my International Stocks, mostly at a loss, to bring my EF back up to a reasonable level. It was a thoughtful move, not a panic one, but it was still a move Bogleheads might frown upon. I don't regret doing it, even if I did lose the money I knew I was going to lose. The harvested tax loss kinda sweetened the blow.
Financologist
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Financologist »

Right: focused on maximizing earnings at work

Wrong: overbought rice, beans and canned tuna
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by CyclingDuo »

:mrgreen:
What we did right

1. Continued on with our regular weekly investments into 401k/403b/457b/taxable accounts.
2. Funded both of our Roth IRA accounts during tax filing season.
3. Put a nice chunk of the proceeds from a commercial real estate sale into the market on March 23rd. :beer
4. Our living expenses went way down, so put more into the market each week than normal in April/May/June.
5. Took the opportunity of working from home and being home to do a lot of gardening and lawn work.
6. Got out on the bike to do much more exercise than usual over the past 5 months.
7. Read many good books and watched many series on streaming services.
8. Kept in touch with family and friends on a regular basis.

:shock:
What we did wrong

1. Spent way too much time in the first month or two staring at the non-stop negative news about Covid being the end of the world.
2. Allowed that news watching and reading to get us all worked into a lather before realizing it was time to do other things and focus on more productive things.
3. A little too much wine flowed with the gourmet home cooked meals which added a few pounds in spite of all the bike riding.

:?:
TBD

Still working from home for two of my jobs, but spouse is back to work (with masks and shields) and face to face with students every day even though numbers of cases are still rising in our state.

CyclingDuo
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
Robot Monster
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Robot Monster »

The most important lesson I learned: how malleable risk tolerance is. The pandemic profoundly lowered my risk tolerance. When I needed my tolerance to be at its strongest, it was at its weakest.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
Day9
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Day9 »

Most "what I did wrong" responses here are wise and introspective and I admire the Boglehead community for this self reflection. But there are some like "I wish I bought call options on tech stock X!" that of course would have made you money, but were not mistakes when you judge the quality of the decision made at the time with all known information. Those posters are probably saying it tongue-in-cheek though.
I'm just a fan of the person I got my user name from
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MillennialFinance19
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by MillennialFinance19 »

I pretty much stuck to my plan though out. One "perk" if you want to call it that, was my ability to TLH a $10k loss that erased a real estate gain from January. I've obviously made that back and some, as I purchased VOOG the day I dropped VTI. Definitely silver linings!
For the love of God, stick to your plan!!!
B. Wellington
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by B. Wellington »

1) Started buying in taxable during the downturn.

2) Held steady in 401(k) accounts and IRA's

3) I did sell a small amount on the upturn. Why?

DW's small business was shut down. My work running 50%, and we are still planning on retiring in the very near future. Also home repairs etc.
Tony Stark
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Tony Stark »

I need to post what we got wrong first. We went to cash in all accounts basically near the bottom. As stocks recovered, we bought back in and have recovered everything, so I guess that is what we did right. To be honest, I have no idea what our risk tolerance is. We are currently 48 stocks 52 fixed income. The big drop yesterday made us both feel like bailing again. We are in our late 50s. We hate the stock market but where else do you invest with interest rates so low.
BarbBrooklyn
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by BarbBrooklyn »

Good:
(retired)
Stayed the course at 30/70. (Now at 34/66 due to gains)

Neutral: Bought 2 individual stocks near the bottom. One has recovered. One is starting to edge up. Both companies I believe in. I have never owned individual sticks before and will not buy more.

Bad: Bought a 25 lb. bag of rice at Costco in March. It's still in my car, providing ballast. Im trying to find a shelter that will take it.
BarbBrooklyn | "The enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."
Topic Author
justsomeguy2018
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

Tony Stark wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:06 am I need to post what we got wrong first. We went to cash in all accounts basically near the bottom. As stocks recovered, we bought back in and have recovered everything, so I guess that is what we did right. To be honest, I have no idea what our risk tolerance is. We are currently 48 stocks 52 fixed income. The big drop yesterday made us both feel like bailing again. We are in our late 50s. We hate the stock market but where else do you invest with interest rates so low.
The low interest rates are pretty soul-crushing for conservative investors right now.....
Tony Stark
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Tony Stark »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:19 am
Tony Stark wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:06 am I need to post what we got wrong first. We went to cash in all accounts basically near the bottom. As stocks recovered, we bought back in and have recovered everything, so I guess that is what we did right. To be honest, I have no idea what our risk tolerance is. We are currently 48 stocks 52 fixed income. The big drop yesterday made us both feel like bailing again. We are in our late 50s. We hate the stock market but where else do you invest with interest rates so low.
The low interest rates are pretty soul-crushing for conservative investors right now.....
Yes, true. We simply can't take market volatility. We always think this is the big one one. That the market is is going into a bear market right as we are approaching retirement. Stay the course is tough. I don't know how others here do it year in and year out.
000
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by 000 »

Tony Stark wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:42 am
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:19 am
Tony Stark wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:06 am I need to post what we got wrong first. We went to cash in all accounts basically near the bottom. As stocks recovered, we bought back in and have recovered everything, so I guess that is what we did right. To be honest, I have no idea what our risk tolerance is. We are currently 48 stocks 52 fixed income. The big drop yesterday made us both feel like bailing again. We are in our late 50s. We hate the stock market but where else do you invest with interest rates so low.
The low interest rates are pretty soul-crushing for conservative investors right now.....
Yes, true. We simply can't take market volatility. We always think this is the big one one. That the market is is going into a bear market right as we are approaching retirement. Stay the course is tough. I don't know how others here do it year in and year out.
I have no interest in such things myself, but what about an annuity for part of the portfolio?
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WoodSpinner
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by WoodSpinner »

I like this thread .....

What we did right:
  • Invested the time and energy to build out an Investment Policy Statement (IPS) that made sense for us.
  • Had an AA that reasonably matched our risk tolerance (55/45). Some days wished we had a higher allocation and others a lower. Did not panic and sell out.
  • We were glad we had greatly simplified our Portfolio (VTI, VXUS, VGSH, VGIT). The treasuries were effective in dampening the downturn and we had well thought out reasons for each holding.
  • The LMP portfolio really helped us relax a bit and not worry so much about my short term finances.
  • Rebalanced using the 5% bands per our IPS (March and June
  • Accelerated planned Roth Conversions for the year during the downturn in March. Completed 90% of planned conversions.
  • Doubled our planned donations from our DAF and focused our giving on Food Banks and Crisis Shelters
  • Kept a reasonably balanced outlook on life. Exercised more, cooked more, baked more, and found a variety of ways to find joy to balance the fear. Really enjoyed our home, it’s surroundings, my wife, daughter and family.
What we did wrong:
  • Way too much angst in managing the portfolio during this period. In hindsight We focused too much on the short term volatility and the doomsday scenarios so prevalent in the news.
  • We were very nervous when rebalancing in March. The market volatility was a bit unnerving and our 5% rebalancing bands triggered, then went went away, then triggered again over several days.
TBD:
  • Did an early rebalancing on Wednesday (9/2) and sold some VTI which will shifted us from 57.5% equities back to our target 55%. Profits will be used to fund 2021 expenses — this effectively replaces 1 rung of our LMP ladder.
  • Decided to increase our target Roth Conversions to the top of the 24% bracket (a 30% increase over planned) if VTI drops below 145. If triggered this will redeploy our 2020 budget savings towards the taxes on the additional conversions
Looking forward to everyone’s insights!

WoodSpinner
alluringreality
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by alluringreality »

Tony Stark wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:42 am Stay the course is tough. I don't know how others here do it year in and year out.
I hope to have additional years to contribute, so I tend to think of movements up and down as both helpful and harmful for different reasons. When stocks go up, it's helpful to the value of my current holdings, but it's also harmful to the price for future contributions. When stocks fall it lowers my current balance, yet it also makes it possible that my future purchases might also be at a lower level. I do keep some money out of the stock market in case my employment is eliminated again in an economic downturn, so I don't know how people that are completely leveraged to the hilt deal with declines, or how my thinking might evolve as my relative contributions decrease. Since I'm still contributing, as long as the economy doesn't eliminate my employment due to poor prospects, there are reasons that stock declines may potentially be preferable to increases. My thinking is completely taken from authors like David Swensen and William Bernstein, so they can explain it better.
https://yalealumnimagazine.com/articles ... ng-soundly
Targets: 15% I Bonds, 15% EE Bonds, 45% US Stock (Mid & Small Tilt), 25% Ex-US Stock (Small Tilt)
Tamalak
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Tamalak »

When stocks go up I gloat and celebrate

When they go down I weep and rend my garments

At no point do I change my investing protocol
aristotelian
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by aristotelian »

Did right:

Stayed the course, did not panic, did not sell.

Bought stocks with new money during the brief time the market was down.

Harvested $15K of net tax losses. Used additional tax losses to offset gains from old mutual funds I no longer wanted.

Did wrong:


Did not rebalance to my allocation (only a few small moves here and there). Failed to fully capitalize on the market being down.
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Richard1580
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Richard1580 »

Nothing very exciting.

Did tax loss harvesting on the way down (probably started too early).

Inadvertently (long story) got out of International (TLH) and moved to S&P 500. Whether that will prove to be a good move remains to be seen, but I got tired of the the continual underperformance over the last 10 years. If International surges, you can thank me. :-)

Was sitting on a lot of cash which I moved into equities.

Generally happy with life and will go back to winding my watch, emptying the chamber pot and keeping my AA in balance.
minimalistmarc
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by minimalistmarc »

I did everything right, so I’m happy.

Amuses me now how some people are in cash waiting for another market slump. They think March was just a practice session (which they failed) and they will do it right next time, which is always just around the corner (maybe forever).
columbia
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by columbia »

I'm extremely pleased with getting out of VOO at 308 and buying back at 246. Situational awareness for the win.
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Monster99
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Monster99 »

Bad -
missed the march downturn as I was ignoring the noise (maybe good? :D)

Good -
Stayed the course and didn't adjust from my 35/65 AA.
Lowered my Handicap from 10 to 8 by having no other outdoor activities to do other than walking and hitting golf balls... :D
Lost a few pounds...
Last edited by Monster99 on Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
7eight9
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by 7eight9 »

Tony Stark wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:06 am I need to post what we got wrong first. We went to cash in all accounts basically near the bottom. As stocks recovered, we bought back in and have recovered everything, so I guess that is what we did right. To be honest, I have no idea what our risk tolerance is. We are currently 48 stocks 52 fixed income. The big drop yesterday made us both feel like bailing again. We are in our late 50s. We hate the stock market but where else do you invest with interest rates so low.
You might want to look into multi-year guaranteed annuities (MYGAs).

Explanation of MYGAs --- https://www.blueprintincome.com/resourc ... annuities/

Example --- Fixed Annuity Rates for September 2020 --- https://www.blueprintincome.com/fixed-annuities

Five year rates as high as 3.45% per the above link.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
Afty
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Afty »

What went well:

* Stayed the course, didn’t sell anything
* Followed my plan and invested near the market bottom, even though it was difficult/scary
* Stopped reading Bogleheads and avoided real-life discussions of the market with friends, to avoid getting spooked

Where I got lucky:

* Investment plan called for decreased equity allocation due to glide path, and I implemented this just before the market started dropping.
Topic Author
justsomeguy2018
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

minimalistmarc wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:55 pm I did everything right, so I’m happy.

Amuses me now how some people are in cash waiting for another market slump. They think March was just a practice session (which they failed) and they will do it right next time, which is always just around the corner (maybe forever).
That is what I was saying when the crash happened - and I did do some increased investing in taxable - but not as much as I could have in hindsight (unless we hit a new bottom soon).

I guess it's different in a crash and your income is potentially on the line.....
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cashboy
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by cashboy »

What I did right
1. Reviewed, but did not change, my IPS
2. Stayed the Course by adhering to my IPS
3. Stuck with my AA per my IPS (almost breached rebalance bands, but did not)
4. made myself a cup of coffee


What I did wrong
nothing (for me)


TBD
make myself another cup of coffee :wink:
Three-Fund Portfolio: FSPSX - FXAIX - FXNAX (with slight tilt of CDs - CASH - Canned Beans - Rice - Bottled Water)
Fallible
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Fallible »

My mind is mostly on the pandemic and its horrific human impact. When it is on the stock market, I feel no need to do anything and that must mean my asset allocation is close to right for me. I credit that largely to lessons learned from the Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession/Credit Crunch/Near Financial Meltdown of 2008. But the pandemic is far from over.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Dennisl
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by Dennisl »

What I did right
1. Stayed the course
2. Tax loss harvested

Wrong?
1. Tried to time the market bottom for rebalancing bonds to stocks

What I learned?
I tend to tinkle a lot with my 401k because of minimal tax implications. I keep changing my mind about AA and spend way too much time reading useless news. I increased my EF in treasuries and have moved my 401k to a target date fund.
owenmia
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by owenmia »

I did not sell during the downturn, that would be so dumb I can’t even believe people do that.

However, I did sell all my total international shares and replaced them with international developed due to thinking China will “lose the trade war”. I am ok with using developed for my international and I did not realize a loss or a tax liability. So, as far as I can tell I did not hurt myself.

I also upped my international from 25% to 30% of equities due to fear America will not perform in the future as a result of government debt and political notability. All empires decline and I believe we are now.

I want to go up to 40% (of equities) International. I knowI am reacting to events but it seems ok as long as I am not realizing a loss or tax.
Last edited by owenmia on Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
pasadena
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by pasadena »

Day9 wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:49 am Most "what I did wrong" responses here are wise and introspective and I admire the Boglehead community for this self reflection. But there are some like "I wish I bought call options on tech stock X!" that of course would have made you money, but were not mistakes when you judge the quality of the decision made at the time with all known information. Those posters are probably saying it tongue-in-cheek though.
You're right. I don't really believe I did that "wrong", I'just wish I had had some spare cash at that time.
ralph124cf
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by ralph124cf »

When the law changed to not require RMDs this year, I converted what would have been my year's RMD to Roth, by transferring stock in kind. The market was down, so I got more stock into my Roth than I would have if I had waited. I am paying the tax by having 90% of my pension withheld for taxes, and 50% of DW's TIAA annuities. Since otherwise we don't have much income besides SS, we are living off of excess cash form the sale of some rentals last year (just in time).

Ralph
ralph124cf
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Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Post by ralph124cf »

When the law changed to not require RMDs this year, I converted what would have been my year's RMD to Roth, by transferring stock in kind. The market was down, so I got more stock into my Roth than I would have if I had waited. I am paying the tax by having 90% of my pension withheld for taxes, and 50% of DW's TIAA annuities. Since otherwise we don't have much income besides SS, we are living off of excess cash form the sale of some rentals last year (just in time).

Ralph
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